Three Tier Lockdown

[Steve1956]

That's two of us.

I will make that 3 FB.

[SingaporeClarets]

Rather than looking for loopholes and excuses you could look at the issues around infection rates etc and think “you know what, I might give the pub a miss tonight”

I suggest you read my other posts on this thread.

On another note, over the weekend the government was being panned for destroying the economy with proposed tougher restrictions.

I'm waiting for Contrary Keir to do another u turn today and slam the government for not bringing in the restrictions sooner as per SAGE and not bringing in the tougher restrictions Prof Whitty alluded to last night before slamming the restrictions in Liverpool and calling for no restrictions during PMQ tomorrow. Almost as comical as Boris' work from home but don't work from home speech.

[Burnley Ace]

I suggest you read my other posts on this thread.

Sorry I didn’t mean “you” as an individual rather “you” as a second person pronoun.

[Dyched]

I suggest you read my other posts on this thread.

On another note, over the weekend the government was being panned for destroying the economy with proposed tougher restrictions.

I'm waiting for Contrary Keir to do another u turn today and slam the government for not bringing in the restrictions sooner as per SAGE and not bringing in the tougher restrictions Prof Whitty alluded to last night before slamming the restrictions in Liverpool and calling for no restrictions during PMQ tomorrow. Almost as comical as Boris' work from home but don't work from home speech.

Work from home but not work from home speech?

This is where were really in the ****? People simply can’t follow simple instructions!

Work from home was the message if you can work from home. Go to work if it’s safe to do so.

What was difficult about that? If you fix battleships for a living, no you can’t put it in your living room and work from home.

[Swizzlestick]

Starmer's called for a two to three week national lockdown https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... on-england

[Grumps]

Starmer's called for a two to three week national lockdown https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... on-england

And after that? Five weeks later he'll be calling for another.

[Swizzlestick]

Dunno mate.

[Swizzlestick]

This is the SAGE report from a few weeks back that he's probably basing his decision on https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... f_NPIs.pdf

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Work from home but not work from home speech?

This is where were really in the ****? People simply can’t follow simple instructions!

Work from home was the message if you can work from home. Go to work if it’s safe to do so.

What was difficult about that? If you fix battleships for a living, no you can’t put it in your living room and work from home.

*stops building dry Dock in the garden*

Wait what...

[ksrclaret]

FFS Starmer. What a bellend.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Are we still at all times guided by the science?

[TheFamilyCat]

Are we still at all times guided by the science?

I'm guided by the voices in my head.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Aren’t we all.

[NewClaret]

Are we still at all times guided by the science?

Seems not any more. Think Boris should’ve been explicit about that yesterday. We can’t do what is needed to control the virus (lock down for another six months) so it’s got to be a compromise between protecting lives and livelihoods.

[NewClaret]

This is the SAGE report from a few weeks back that he's probably basing his decision on https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... f_NPIs.pdf

SAGE/the scientific advisors only have to worry about the actions needed to protect lives, not the wider economy/livelihoods, so their reports are always likely to suggest more drastic measures than the Government are prepared to accept. Boris should just say so because it’s not going to get any easier to cover up the divergence between the scientific advice and the competing considerations.

[NewClaret]

I will make that 3 FB.

Four

[Wellsy1882]

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CGS-5OcHNd ... 5vujcpj5mb

Applaud the caller

[Rileybobs]

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CGS-5OcHNd ... 5vujcpj5mb

Applaud the caller

The guy who claimed there’s a one in a million chance of dying from Covid and then hung up when challenged on his claim?

[dsr]

I can't see the point of keeping schools, universities, and workplaces open but closing all the pubs and restaurants. That isn't a "circuit breaker". Is Starmer seriously suggesting that someone who spends all day at work but calls in at the pub later is vulnerable, but someone who spends all day at work and goes straight home is safe? Surely the main places where this disease is spread, is the place where people spend the most time.

If he wants a circuit breaker, then it has to be thorough. No work, no play, no sport, no walking the dog. Otherwise it's not a circuit breaker, it's a temporary pause.

[dsr]

There's a very big problem with this lockdown idea anyway. It's all about weighing up the economy with the disease. So what the policy is, is to keep work going as normal, more or less, while cutting out social activity. Work yes, going out no. If you're in Very High mode, or total lockdown mode as Starmer wants, then you can work but virtually all social activity must stop.

What about retired people? They don't have any work. Their entire life consists of social activity. And especially the older end, the ones whose minds ar eperhaps starting to wander; the ones who are told that to keep mentally sharp, they must keep busy, they must have a circle of friends, they must meet people, they must go out and do things. They are now being told to get back into their houses and don't come out until ... when? Ages off.

Someone who is in work will be meeting people, talking to people, being sociable, every day. People who aren't in work will never meet anyone - they aren't allowed to. It will do harm.

[martin_p]

I can't see the point of keeping schools, universities, and workplaces open but closing all the pubs and restaurants. That isn't a "circuit breaker". Is Starmer seriously suggesting that someone who spends all day at work but calls in at the pub later is vulnerable, but someone who spends all day at work and goes straight home is safe? Surely the main places where this disease is spread, is the place where people spend the most time.

If he wants a circuit breaker, then it has to be thorough. No work, no play, no sport, no walking the dog. Otherwise it's not a circuit breaker, it's a temporary pause.

You haven’t read the Sage recommendation Starmer backs have you.

[dsr]

You haven’t read the Sage recommendation Starmer backs have you.

I have now, and I still don't see the point. We have a two or three week circuit breaker and it holds back the disease for 28 days? That means after one or two weeks of relative freedom, we're back onto circuit break. Except that in the one or two weeks of relative freedom, the stir-crazy will be back out on the lash (ie. visiting restaurants and their families) and will bring about lockdown sooner.

We cannot have a system that locks up old people with no social interaction at all for all of, or most of, winter. If we do then the nursing homes won't have room to cope with the people who have lost the mental capacity to cope. They have to find a better way.

[CombatClaret]

We cannot have a system that locks up old people with no social interaction at all for all of, or most of, winter. If we do then the nursing homes won't have room to cope with the people who have lost the mental capacity to cope. They have to find a better way.

The more infection there is in the general population the tighter we'll have to lock up old people in their homes.

Sadly I think we're dealing with compound failures: mistakes made in March piled on failures in May on top of incompetence in September etc. There are no quick or easy fixes available to us now. Even the slow & complex ones are beyond a government built around Brexit loyalty over ability.

[martin_p]

I have now, and I still don't see the point. We have a two or three week circuit breaker and it holds back the disease for 28 days? That means after one or two weeks of relative freedom, we're back onto circuit break. Except that in the one or two weeks of relative freedom, the stir-crazy will be back out on the lash (ie. visiting restaurants and their families) and will bring about lockdown sooner.

We cannot have a system that locks up old people with no social interaction at all for all of, or most of, winter. If we do then the nursing homes won't have room to cope with the people who have lost the mental capacity to cope. They have to find a better way.

Ok, so how do you give them that social interaction without killing large numbers of them?

[Bordeauxclaret]

Thanks for that Cutsy.
Where should we be looking for the “real” information?

[Wellsy1882]

Thanks for that Cutsy.
Where should we be looking for the “real” information?

Duno but youl see plenty of them leaflets about town in the local areas

[CombatClaret]

Fact01 - This downgrade should not have happened, criteria for a HCID apply for Covid. The downgrade occured to lower the legal PPE requirements for healthcare professionals because at the time we didn't have the PPE.

Fact02 - "Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.”

Sarah Caul, Head of Mortality Analysis. ONS

[Cirrus_Minor]

One thing the COVID denial theorists never explain is if we just abandon all measures and allow the virus to spread in the community, what do we do when all of the hospitals and NHS system gets overrun with people suffering from the disease?

[FactualFrank]

One thing the COVID denial theorists never explain is if we just abandon all measures and allow the virus to spread in the community, what do we do when all of the hospitals and NHS system gets overrun with people suffering from the disease?

They will deny that would happen, due to their thinking that it's not as bad as the government are making out and reporting.

[Swizzlestick]

Love how that Covidiot leaflet actually publishes the very question that destroys their narrative - then doesn’t answer it!

Way to get the general public round to your way of thinking, guys.

[FactualFrank]

Well the numbers are certainly still going up.

17,000+ cases with 150+ died. Was around 14000 and 50 a couple of days ago. Let's see what these tiers do.

[martin_p]

An evidence based analysis, that doesn’t contain any evidence.

[Eyres_11]

Ohhh its in a poster, must be true.

Come on mods - delete this ridiculous dangerous propaganda.

[Rileybobs]

Ohhh its in a poster, must be true.

Come on mods - delete this ridiculous dangerous propaganda.

I doubt it’ll be there for long. Totally reckless how people think it’s sensible to post such things.

[Devils_Advocate]

Ohhh its in a poster, must be true.

Come on mods - delete this ridiculous dangerous propaganda.

I get your point but I say leave it up. This will get shared in groups where it goes unchallenged so putting it up on a forum like this which has balanced opinions means it can be shown up for the rubbish it really is.

You never know someone who's being exposed to this crap by their friends and family might see these discussions and think twice about it

[dsr]

Ok, so how do you give them that social interaction without killing large numbers of them?

Well, that's not an easy question, is it. Basically I would incline towards saying these are the facts, make your own minds up. So that if Mr & Mrs Smith each have an elderly parent, they can avoid the position where they can visit one every day in their "bubble" while the other is totally abandoned. If Dora and Vera have been spending the afternoons with each other for years, then they can choose to carry on doing so.

Remember large numbers of them are going to die anyway. Life expectancy for over 80's is about 5 years. The alternatives are not die of coronavirus or live for ever in perfect health; the alternatives are give up one-fifth of your average life expectancy to lockdown, while improving your chances of living the other four-fifths by 20%.

Remember also that at that age, the chances are that the healthiest year of the rest of your life will be the next one. As Auberon Waugh once said, there is nothing in life worth giving up for the sake of an extra two years in a nursing home. There is a strong element of truth in that. How many people do you know who would say that they are looking forward to going into a home?

[Rileybobs]

I get your point but I say leave it up. This will get shared in groups where it goes unchallenged so putting it up on a forum like this which has balanced opinions means it can be shown up for the rubbish it really is.

You never know someone who's being exposed to this crap by their friends and family might see these discussions and think twice about it

I get the sentiment but I think this is far more likely to do more harm than good. The fact that it’s presented in an ‘imitation’ official style means that the numbskulls will give it more credence than an average post. These leaflets target the easily duped who aren’t likely to pay any attention to a reasoned discussion.

[martin_p]

Well, that's not an easy question, is it. Basically I would incline towards saying these are the facts, make your own minds up. So that if Mr & Mrs Smith each have an elderly parent, they can avoid the position where they can visit one every day in their "bubble" while the other is totally abandoned. If Dora and Vera have been spending the afternoons with each other for years, then they can choose to carry on doing so.

Remember large numbers of them are going to die anyway. Life expectancy for over 80's is about 5 years. The alternatives are not die of coronavirus or live for ever in perfect health; the alternatives are give up one-fifth of your average life expectancy to lockdown, while improving your chances of living the other four-fifths by 20%.

Remember also that at that age, the chances are that the healthiest year of the rest of your life will be the next one. As Auberon Waugh once said, there is nothing in life worth giving up for the sake of an extra two years in a nursing home. There is a strong element of truth in that. How many people do you know who would say that they are looking forward to going into a home?

But a virus doesn’t respect people making their own minds up. If person A in a home wants a visitor and person B in the same home doesn’t the virus isn’t going to respect person B’s decision and not rip through a home’s residents is it? Once the virus has got into a home it is very difficult to contain it so the only option is to take the best measures to keep it out.

[NottsClaret]

Have to say I'd like a disclaimer in my contract when I end up in a care home one day, that I'd rather see my family every week and take my chances than rot away for an extra year or two in isolation until death. Also, I wouldn't want a generation missing out on education, fun and simply being young on my behalf, as someone who'd already lived their life.

[martin_p]

Have to say I'd like a disclaimer in my contract when I end up in a care home one day, that I'd rather see my family every week and take my chances than rot away for an extra year or two in isolation until death. Also, I wouldn't want a generation missing out on education, fun and simply being young on my behalf, as someone who'd already lived their life.

But as I said, viruses don’t respect individuals decisions. Thousands (if not millions) chose not to follow the rules and not to socially distance once the previous lockdown rules had been relaxed. I followed the rules/guidance but now have months more of my choices being restricted because of other people’s decisions.

[dsr]

But a virus doesn’t respect people making their own minds up. If person A in a home wants a visitor and person B in the same home doesn’t the virus isn’t going to respect person B’s decision and not rip through a home’s residents is it? Once the virus has got into a home it is very difficult to contain it so the only option is to take the best measures to keep it out.

Then the home can take measures to keep it out. I'm not sure that banning Dora at number 24 Sebastopol Terrace from visiting Vera at number 23 Railway Cuttings is going to help the situation at an old folks' home. So release that particular ban. For example.

Lots of old people do not live in old folks' homes. They are the ones being most ignored by these lockdowns.

If we put all our efforts into preventing deaths from coronavirus, then people with dementia are being abandoned. Sometimes, especially with old people, quality of life needs to be considered as well as purely counting the numbers who are still breathing.

[martin_p]

Then the home can take measures to keep it out. I'm not sure that banning Dora at number 24 Sebastopol Terrace from visiting Vera at number 23 Railway Cuttings is going to help the situation at an old folks' home. So release that particular ban. For example.

Lots of old people do not live in old folks' homes. They are the ones being most ignored by these lockdowns.

If we put all our efforts into preventing deaths from coronavirus, then people with dementia are being abandoned. Sometimes, especially with old people, quality of life needs to be considered as well as purely counting the numbers who are still breathing.

Dora and Vera can see each other, forming a bubble, as long as one of them lives alone and they are not seeing anyone else. If they are seeing other people then Dora and Vera’s decision doesn’t just effect Dora and Vera does it.

[CombatClaret]

The study found the most consistent predictor of decreased susceptibility to misinformation about Covid-19 was numerical literacy – the ability to digest and apply quantitative information broadly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -fake-news

This just in, thick people fall for conspiracy theories.

[FactualFrank]

The study found the most consistent predictor of decreased susceptibility to misinformation about Covid-19 was numerical literacy – the ability to digest and apply quantitative information broadly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -fake-news

This just in, thick people fall for conspiracy theories.

I'd have a few people defriending me if I put that on Facebook

[dsr]

Dora and Vera can see each other, forming a bubble, as long as one of them lives alone and they are not seeing anyone else. If they are seeing other people then Dora and Vera’s decision doesn’t just effect Dora and Vera does it.

Which is better for Vera. That she sees no-one at all and never leaves her house for a year, or that she sees Dora every day and risks getting infected by Dora's daughter's weekly visits?

You quite right in that if three old people see each other in each other's houses, they are increasing the risk of spreading the pandemic. Where we differ is that you think that is such a serious risk that it would be better if they sat at home staring at the walls; I don't. Old people need sociability, and if that comes at greater risk of catching coronavirus or of spreading it to the young, then so be it. The greater risk is pretty trivial when compared with the risk of younger people, who are far less likely to know they have coronavirus anyway, going about their business.

[martin_p]

The study found the most consistent predictor of decreased susceptibility to misinformation about Covid-19 was numerical literacy – the ability to digest and apply quantitative information broadly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -fake-news

This just in, thick people fall for conspiracy theories.

In other news, the Pope confirms he’s a Catholic!

[martin_p]

Which is better for Vera. That she sees no-one at all and never leaves her house for a year, or that she sees Dora every day and risks getting infected by Dora's daughter's weekly visits?

You quite right in that if three old people see each other in each other's houses, they are increasing the risk of spreading the pandemic. Where we differ is that you think that is such a serious risk that it would be better if they sat at home staring at the walls; I don't. Old people need sociability, and if that comes at greater risk of catching coronavirus or of spreading it to the young, then so be it. The greater risk is pretty trivial when compared with the risk of younger people, who are far less likely to know they have coronavirus anyway, going about their business.

No, where we differ is that I’ve read and digested the rules and you haven’t. Old people don’t need to sit at home staring at the walls. If they are alone they can form a support bubble with one other household and are free to visit and have visits when they wish. If they are able to get out for a walk they can meet friends in a park as long as they socially distance.

[NottsClaret]

One thing's for sure, if an eventual vaccine did the same harm that lockdown has done - and like it or not, it's condemned hundreds of thousands to misery, hardship and death - then it would never get approved. Yet people are demanding lockdowns, with or without consent, for the whole country.

What's the WHO's stance on lockdowns now? Genuinely not sure anymore, I heard they were against them these days but quite possibly 'fake news'.

[martin_p]

One thing's for sure, if an eventual vaccine did the same harm that lockdown has done - and like it or not, it's condemned hundreds of thousands to misery, hardship and death - then it would never get approved. Yet people are demanding lockdowns, with or without consent, for the whole country.

What's the WHO's stance on lockdowns now? Genuinely not sure anymore, I heard they were against them these days but quite possibly 'fake news'.

But the outcome you describe is better than the one where even more people die and people are still condemned to misery and hardship. Do you think businesses would have been able to continue as normal if we’d have done nothing?

It’s a global pandemic, there’s no good outcome here, just bad and even worse!

[martin_p]

Duplicate