SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

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UnderSeige
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SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:13 am

It's possible that SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the next two or three months and almost certainly by the spring. Reasons why I am thinking this:
  • The UK lags Spain by around 6-8 weeks. The the daily case rate in Spain began to rise in early July peaked at 10,909 (7 day average) on 18th September. It has been declining now for a full three weeks and currently stands at 7,189. The mortality daily rate has been below 130 for the whole of this current peak. None of this points to evidence that virus is spreading exponentially in the country that is currently leading the European pack.
  • Spain shows the data relating to how the virus is currently behaving.
  • The current UK case peak began in late August and is still rising. It took Spain just over two and a half months to reach it's current case peak. If the behaviour of the virus follows the Spain pattern, it should continue it's upward trajectory into November and then start to fall.
  • Pandemics (e.g. Spanish Flu) are usually measured in terms of mortalities. The current media/BBC hysteria is measuring SARS-COV2 in terms of the daily case rate. The daily mortality rate (7 day average) currently stands at 56. In April it reached 941 and was above 500 for over a month.
  • The XYZ hypothesis is the best explanation that I have heard regarding the way in which the virus moves through a population. The bottom line is that it only affects a proportion of the population. However, the proportion that it does affect are highly vulnerable to receiving the infection. Once it has swept through the highly vulnerable proportion, there are less people that it can infect leading to herd immunity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRwlxZ- ... e=youtu.be
  • Other SARS viruses have reeked havoc for a year or so and then virtually disappeared.
  • Increase use of face masks. It sounds a bit odd but the science (that the current media hysteria is ignoring) is showing that face mask use can virtually vaccinate a person. If a small amount of virus does get through the mask it can be so small that the immune system has time to overwhelm it and develop antibodies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KANNNty9V3o
  • SARS-COV2 is not the flu. There is yet little evidence that it spreads like the flu in winter. However, it does spread more easily indoors and especially in poorly ventilated areas. It also thrives in the darkness and the cold. I think that this is the current unknown.
  • It sounds like a vaccine is on the way. The US and China look to be the most likely early runners. There is the possibility that the US will start vaccinating in late November. The Oxford vaccine is having toxicity issues.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by ClaretCraig » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:48 am

I won't bother listening to all the worlds governments and disease experts anymore. I will come on here and listen to our resident expert who is named after a Steven Seagal movie.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Dyched » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:55 am

If it follows Spain it will go upwards into November and begin to fall? But thrives in the dark and cold?

So a bit pointless comparing Spain in September/October to the UK in November.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:15 pm

It is an interesting virus with variable infectivity. I know of colleagues infected yet their spouse has remained well but then the spouse got it months later and someone who remained well was antibody positive and is now off with Covid-19 positive sickness.
I am told an epidemiologist has risk stratified a 1 in 3 chance of getting the virus if your spouse had it, a 1 in 5 risk if a family member has it and an 80% chance if you are in a car for 45 minutes with someone who has it.
A CDC guy in USA says a face mask will offer more protection than a vaccine which has 50% protection but I believe he was also meaning mask wearing plus social distancing.
I think all nations are different Spain has a smaller population (I think) a bigger land mass and a warmer climate than us. The NW and Midlands has a pretty high population density as does London but they had a lot of infections in the first wave and I am not sure how we compared. One thing is certain, we are now paying the price for poor adherence to three simple requests which have not changed, SD, wash hands regularly isolate if symptoms of Covid (fever, persistent cough, loss of taste/smell).

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:19 pm

It seems the time from a vaccine being approved and it being rolled out to enough people, is at least 6 months.

Meaning, a vaccine this year (which the experts say is more than likely going to be early next year) would take us up to around June at the earliest.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by boatshed bill » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:32 pm

It would be so much less of a pandemic if people used their common sense and kept themselves to themselves as much as possible.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:36 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:32 pm
It would be so much less of a pandemic if people used their common sense and kept themselves to themselves as much as possible.
People can't use what they don't have.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:44 pm

ClaretCraig wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:48 am
I won't bother listening to all the worlds governments and disease experts anymore. I will come on here and listen to our resident expert who is named after a Steven Seagal movie.
Your correct about the movie. When I was setting up my user account there was an Underseige DVD in front of me. Hence the name.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Rileybobs » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:53 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:32 pm
It would be so much less of a pandemic if people used their common sense and kept themselves to themselves as much as possible.
What do you mean by as much as possible though? Should we remain cooped up in our houses for the foreseeable?

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:56 pm

Dyched wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:55 am
If it follows Spain it will go upwards into November and begin to fall? But thrives in the dark and cold?

So a bit pointless comparing Spain in September/October to the UK in November.
It depends on whether the dark and cold affect the Z's (highly vulnerable people) in the XYZ hypothesis. That is the unknown factor. If the 'Z group' expands as a result of winter then there will be more cases.

In other words, are some people, who are not vulnerable in the summer going to be more vulnerable in the winter? Also, if the XYZ hypothesis is correct we should also be nearing some kind of 'herd immunity'. That's what the Spanish data suggests.

The UK has lagged Spain since March. Lets hope for this to continue on the current trajectory.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Spijed » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:59 pm

What happens if China really does develop the first vaccine?

It's clearly obvious from the rhetoric coming out of America that they won't have anything to do with it, and they'll put enormous pressure on the rest of the world not to use it either.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Bigbopper » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:01 pm

Iam at present half way through self isolation due to having the virus.To be honest apart from a slight constant cough and tightness in the chest both for a couple of days only I have no other symptons.If it was not for my wife having a positive test I would probably have carried on as normal and no doubt spread it to other people.
I will be 70 in a couple of months time so more likely to have complications so I've been lucky. I stuck to the guide lines re social distancing/masks/hand washing,as did my wife ,so no idea how I picked it up.
Stay safe everybody you may not be as lucky as me.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by fidelcastro » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:09 pm

Bigbopper wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:01 pm
Iam at present half way through self isolation due to having the virus.To be honest apart from a slight constant cough and tightness in the chest both for a couple of days only I have no other symptons.If it was not for my wife having a positive test I would probably have carried on as normal and no doubt spread it to other people.
I will be 70 in a couple of months time so more likely to have complications so I've been lucky. I stuck to the guide lines re social distancing/masks/hand washing,as did my wife ,so no idea how I picked it up.
Stay safe everybody you may not be as lucky as me.
Good news that you're okay.

Perhaps you picked up the virus from something you touched? It really is that easy to contract this virus.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:14 pm

Bigbopper wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:01 pm
Iam at present half way through self isolation due to having the virus.To be honest apart from a slight constant cough and tightness in the chest both for a couple of days only I have no other symptons.If it was not for my wife having a positive test I would probably have carried on as normal and no doubt spread it to other people.
I will be 70 in a couple of months time so more likely to have complications so I've been lucky. I stuck to the guide lines re social distancing/masks/hand washing,as did my wife ,so no idea how I picked it up.
Stay safe everybody you may not be as lucky as me.
All the precautions do not guarantee freedom from infection but if you had gone out with this whilst sticking to the guidance then you would have passed it on to fewer people than if you had cocked a snoop to the guidance which has been so simple that a lot of the population cannot understand it.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by tim_noone » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:23 pm

ClaretCraig wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:48 am
I won't bother listening to all the worlds governments and disease experts anymore. I will come on here and listen to our resident expert who is named after a Steven Seagal movie.
:lol: :lol:

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dibraidio » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:54 pm

There was a recent pilot study in Spain on the impact of Vitamin D on confirmed cases of covid with respiratory difficulties. Administering high doses of 25-hydroxyvitamin D reduced the number of admission to intensive care from 50% in the control group of 26 to 2% in the test group of 50.

There are calls for full clinical trials but none have been done as yet. However there is a strong suspicion of a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and covid death. One of the treatments given to Donald Trump was 25-hydroxyvitamin D which plays a role in the immune system and in particular in the part that protects the tissues in the lung that become inflamed by covid.

I'm not suggesting that this is a miracle cure but it does look promising from initial results and as the medical community finds solutions like this the danger of covid will hopefully become like that of the plague which is now cured with a simple dose of anti-biotics.

Having said all that, I think the end of the pandemic is some way off. Cases are increasing , hospital admissions are increasing and we still need to protect the most fragile in our society. As Churchill once said "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:22 pm

Just a word of caution regarding vitamin D. It is a fat soluble vitamin (in fact it is not a true vitamin) so accumulates in the body and too much can cause renal damage. Using the native vitamin D3 a dose of 1 to 2mg per month will give good levels of 25-hydroxyvtamin D which itself is inert and is the precursor of the active metabolite calcitriol which is made in the kidney but also by certain cells in the immune system.
In units 1mg of vitamin D3 is 40,000 units and the old recommendations of 10 units per day in the absence of solar exposure is only enough to stop bone softening (rickets in the growing skeleton or osteomalacia in adults). I have spent the best part of 45 years on this subject and the problem about the role of vitamin D in health and disease remains controversial beyond the role of a lack in causing rickets. Perturbations in its metabolism can cause problems in disease states and there are good reasons to keep good levels of vitamin D nutrition especially during this time period to maximise health benefits. As with all things too much can be as bad as too little. I shall be taking 1mg/month over winter.
As per Donald he had so many forms of therapy it would be impossible to know what helped and what did not.
The vitamin D receptors in his brain did not seem to benefit.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by boatshed bill » Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:30 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:53 pm
What do you mean by as much as possible though? Should we remain cooped up in our houses for the foreseeable?
Isolation in as much as keep oneself to oneself as much as possible. That does not need to be confinement. Pubs, concerts and football grounds shouldn't be open to the public, it's becoming fairly obvious.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:38 pm

Dibradio on the issue of vitamin D nutrition and death, that is true for many diseases. As age is the biggest predictor of death the elderly and infirm tend to reside in doors or be heavily clothed when out and in the absence of supplementation will have low levels of vitamin D and lower than even age matched healthy elderly. As with all matters correlation is not the same as causation. The fitter a person is the more likely they are to be out and that is when we make vitamin D. The darker the skin the more U/V energy needed to make vitamin D and the thinner the skin the less vitamin D is made. We have to do this between late March early April through to September after that the wave length of U/V in the UK is not appropriate for making vitamin D. The US supplements milk we do not and yet only Alaska is as or more northerly than UK so we get far less solar exposure and not surprisingly have a poorer state of nutrition than in the US but they are taking big hits as we are from this virus.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Rileybobs » Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:08 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:30 pm
Isolation in as much as keep oneself to oneself as much as possible. That does not need to be confinement. Pubs, concerts and football grounds shouldn't be open to the public, it's becoming fairly obvious.
It depends what you mean by shouldn't be open to the public. If the goal is to get Covid cases to zero then I'd agree with you, but that's not practical or realistic. Should we shut down society until Covid has gone away entirely? I was speaking to a neighbour this morning who's wife teaches in a school where 13 of the teachers have tested positive. Should schools be closed? Where do we draw the line with this?

There's a balance between keeping the economy ticking over, protecting people's mental health and wellbeing (mental and financial) whilst on the other hand trying to keep Covid cases down. There isn't a win-win situation here, there has to be a compromise. And if we want our children to go to school, and the country to stay afloat, we need to accept that cases will rise.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dibraidio » Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:21 pm

mdd2, I read that something like 46% of Americans are vitamin D deficient and that number shoots up into the 70s in the Hispanic community and over 80% in Afro-americans. As you say, correlation isn't the same as causation. The high fatality rate in black communities in New York could equally be due to obesity levels or just down to the ethnic make up of the poorest people in the hardest hit places and them not getting the best health care.

It's interesting that in the Spanish study many were found to be vitamin D deficient despite the higher levels of sunshine. In that area only the poorer people work outside and spend their time in the sun, everyone else tries to stay in the shade and avoid the heat.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by boatshed bill » Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:30 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:08 pm
It depends what you mean by shouldn't be open to the public. If the goal is to get Covid cases to zero then I'd agree with you, but that's not practical or realistic. Should we shut down society until Covid has gone away entirely? I was speaking to a neighbour this morning who's wife teaches in a school where 13 of the teachers have tested positive. Should schools be closed? Where do we draw the line with this?

There's a balance between keeping the economy ticking over, protecting people's mental health and wellbeing (mental and financial) whilst on the other hand trying to keep Covid cases down. There isn't a win-win situation here, there has to be a compromise. And if we want our children to go to school, and the country to stay afloat, we need to accept that cases will rise.
Whilst I agree with your sentiments I think we need to be much, much stricter. Our economy would probably survive a total lockdown for a shortish period. Allowing people to travel all around the country and even abroad for leisure purposes is madness. Some people are doing their very best to avoid the risk of spreading this virus, others clearly are not. The problem with the concept of accepting a "reasonable" level of infection is who do you want to let die?
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:35 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:13 am
It's possible that SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the next two or three months and almost certainly by the spring. Reasons why I am thinking this:
  • The UK lags Spain by around 6-8 weeks. The the daily case rate in Spain began to rise in early July peaked at 10,909 (7 day average) on 18th September. It has been declining now for a full three weeks and currently stands at 7,189. The mortality daily rate has been below 130 for the whole of this current peak. None of this points to evidence that virus is spreading exponentially in the country that is currently leading the European pack.
  • Spain shows the data relating to how the virus is currently behaving.
  • The current UK case peak began in late August and is still rising. It took Spain just over two and a half months to reach it's current case peak. If the behaviour of the virus follows the Spain pattern, it should continue it's upward trajectory into November and then start to fall.
  • Pandemics (e.g. Spanish Flu) are usually measured in terms of mortalities. The current media/BBC hysteria is measuring SARS-COV2 in terms of the daily case rate. The daily mortality rate (7 day average) currently stands at 56. In April it reached 941 and was above 500 for over a month.
  • The XYZ hypothesis is the best explanation that I have heard regarding the way in which the virus moves through a population. The bottom line is that it only affects a proportion of the population. However, the proportion that it does affect are highly vulnerable to receiving the infection. Once it has swept through the highly vulnerable proportion, there are less people that it can infect leading to herd immunity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRwlxZ- ... e=youtu.be
  • Other SARS viruses have reeked havoc for a year or so and then virtually disappeared.
  • Increase use of face masks. It sounds a bit odd but the science (that the current media hysteria is ignoring) is showing that face mask use can virtually vaccinate a person. If a small amount of virus does get through the mask it can be so small that the immune system has time to overwhelm it and develop antibodies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KANNNty9V3o
  • SARS-COV2 is not the flu. There is yet little evidence that it spreads like the flu in winter. However, it does spread more easily indoors and especially in poorly ventilated areas. It also thrives in the darkness and the cold. I think that this is the current unknown.
  • It sounds like a vaccine is on the way. The US and China look to be the most likely early runners. There is the possibility that the US will start vaccinating in late November. The Oxford vaccine is having toxicity issues.
If herd immunity was such a bad idea that the government specifically said they had not considered it, how is it making a comeback now?
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:55 pm

dibraidio wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:21 pm
mdd2, I read that something like 46% of Americans are vitamin D deficient and that number shoots up into the 70s in the Hispanic community and over 80% in Afro-americans. As you say, correlation isn't the same as causation. The high fatality rate in black communities in New York could equally be due to obesity levels or just down to the ethnic make up of the poorest people in the hardest hit places and them not getting the best health care.

It's interesting that in the Spanish study many were found to be vitamin D deficient despite the higher levels of sunshine. In that area only the poorer people work outside and spend their time in the sun, everyone else tries to stay in the shade and avoid the heat.
Compared with the UK these places have far better levels of vit D nutrition way above that needed for healthy bones. So yes whites have better levels than browns and blacks and with regard to the Spanish study which I have not seen they, the Spanish will have better nutrition than us due to latitude but if folk are immured in doors D nutrition falls and if you look at our levels in February they are at a nadir to pick up in spring and summer from casual solar exposure. We do not know what the optimum level of vitamin D is for the immune system but we do know what level of D nutrition is needed to stop secondary hyperparathyroidism for bone health-suffice to say it would seem reasonable to state that the maximum level would be what can be achieved by solar exposure which seems to be around a 25OHD level of 80ng/ml with an ability to make around 0.1mg/day of native Vitamin D (4000 IU)from solar exposure when a late colleague of mine was looking at this in the 80's although this may have been refuted.
I have plenty of slides gathering dust if you wanted to spend a few weeks during the next lockdown. :D :D :D

On obesity- the half life of vitamin D is reduced in the obese making them at greater risk of deficiency and insufficiency.
A few years ago a woman who was quite obese and self dosed with large amounts of vitamin D-most of which would have sequestrated in her fat-became toxic from D poisoning when she went on a strict diet and lost an awful lot of weight.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Bosscat » Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:00 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:44 pm
Your correct about the movie. When I was setting up my user account there was an Underseige DVD in front of me. Hence the name.
Good job "Debbie does Dallas" wasn't on the shelf then 🤭🤭🤭
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:03 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 3:35 pm
If herd immunity was such a bad idea that the government specifically said they had not considered it, how is it making a comeback now?
Herd immunity has always been the aim. The development of a vaccine is aimed at herd immunity.

The XYZ hypothesis is the best explanation that I have heard about the pandemic so far. It also explains why many countries will be getting close to herd immunity at the present time. We didn't know this in March. The infection rate was growing exponentially and looked like it would sweep through 70-80% of the population before herd immunity was reached.

Herd immunity is achieved by several factors:
  • People being pre-immune (the X's in the XYZ hypothesis). These are people who were already immune due to contracting coronavirus common colds in the year or two leading up to the start of the pandemic in February. There is cross immunity between some common cold virus's and SARS-COV2. There could be around 40% of the population in this category although the exact figure is not yet known.
  • People who the virus has little or no effect on (the Y's in the XYZ hypothesis). Possibly another 40%
  • Since X and Y account for 80% of the population being immune herd immunity only needs to be achieved in the remaining 20% - the Z's.
  • People contracting the disease and developing natural immunity. These are the Z's who pull through OK.
  • A vaccine when available.
  • People who receive a therapeutic dose of SARS-Cov2. This occurs when the inoculum is so small that the persons immune system has time to overcome it and develop antibodies. For example, someone wearing a mask and coming into contact with a spreader, might receive a very small number of particles that the immune system can deal with. Explanation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KANNNty9V3o

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:04 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:00 pm
Good job "Debbie does Dallas" wasn't on the shelf then 🤭🤭🤭
I might have generated a lot of interest in my posts. :D
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:24 pm

The XYZ Hypothesis explains why, in some households, not all members of the household contract the disease. This puzzled me for months. If the virus is so infectious why, if one member of the household get's it, doesn't it infect the whole household?

It also explains why, in all countries there is an initial surge in infections and deaths followed by a big fall off. This has occurred in most countries except for Some Far Eastern and Pacific Rim countries that have quashed the virus from the outset. Sweden had very little in the way of lockdown yet they had an quick surge followed by a tailoff. This is true of the UK, Spain, France and most other countries.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by NottsClaret » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:30 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:24 pm
The XYZ Hypothesis explains why, in some households, not all members of the household contract the disease. This puzzled me for months. If the virus is so infectious why, if one member of the household get's it, doesn't it infect the whole household?
Same here. Mrs Notts tested positive a couple of weeks ago. So we all isolated together, assuming we’d get it anyway, we made no attempt to ‘distance’ in the house.

Neither me or the kids got it. She had the sort of mild flu version but was better after 8-10 days.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by boatshed bill » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:55 pm

This is a bit of a shock (to me, anyhow)

The largest hometesting study for coronavirus suggests that new infections have reached 45,000 every day in England.

An analysis of swab tests taken by 175,000 people between 18 September and 5 October found that one in every 170 tests was returning a positive result.

The research, led by Imperial College London, reports that 0.60% of the population, or 60 per 10,000, had the SARS-CoV-2 virus, compared to 0.13% in the previous round of testing.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:56 pm

Anybody still sceptical of herd immunity needs to look up what Dr Johnny Bananas has to say on the subject

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Grumps » Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:16 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:13 am
It's possible that SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the next two or three months and almost certainly by the spring. Reasons why I am thinking this:
  • The UK lags Spain by around 6-8 weeks. The the daily case rate in Spain began to rise in early July peaked at 10,909 (7 day average) on 18th September. It has been declining now for a full three weeks and currently stands at 7,189. The mortality daily rate has been below 130 for the whole of this current peak. None of this points to evidence that virus is spreading exponentially in the country that is currently leading the European pack.
  • Spain shows the data relating to how the virus is currently behaving.
  • The current UK case peak began in late August and is still rising. It took Spain just over two and a half months to reach it's current case peak. If the behaviour of the virus follows the Spain pattern, it should continue it's upward trajectory into November and then start to fall.
  • Pandemics (e.g. Spanish Flu) are usually measured in terms of mortalities. The current media/BBC hysteria is measuring SARS-COV2 in terms of the daily case rate. The daily mortality rate (7 day average) currently stands at 56. In April it reached 941 and was above 500 for over a month.
  • The XYZ hypothesis is the best explanation that I have heard regarding the way in which the virus moves through a population. The bottom line is that it only affects a proportion of the population. However, the proportion that it does affect are highly vulnerable to receiving the infection. Once it has swept through the highly vulnerable proportion, there are less people that it can infect leading to herd immunity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRwlxZ- ... e=youtu.be
  • Other SARS viruses have reeked havoc for a year or so and then virtually disappeared.
  • Increase use of face masks. It sounds a bit odd but the science (that the current media hysteria is ignoring) is showing that face mask use can virtually vaccinate a person. If a small amount of virus does get through the mask it can be so small that the immune system has time to overwhelm it and develop antibodies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KANNNty9V3o
  • SARS-COV2 is not the flu. There is yet little evidence that it spreads like the flu in winter. However, it does spread more easily indoors and especially in poorly ventilated areas. It also thrives in the darkness and the cold. I think that this is the current unknown.
  • It sounds like a vaccine is on the way. The US and China look to be the most likely early runners. There is the possibility that the US will start vaccinating in late November. The Oxford vaccine is having toxicity issues.
Unfortunately your argument fails at the first point. Police on the streets of Madrid forcing a complete lockdown due to massive rise in cases.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Billy Balfour » Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:27 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:56 pm
Anybody still sceptical of herd immunity needs to look up what Dr Johnny Bananas has to say on the subject
Dr I.P Freely is quite an expert too.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:39 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:56 pm
Anybody still sceptical of herd immunity needs to look up what Dr Johnny Bananas has to say on the subject
"It's as useless to fight against the interpretations of ignorance as to whip the fog" - George Elliot Middlemarch

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:23 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:16 pm
Unfortunately your argument fails at the first point. Police on the streets of Madrid forcing a complete lockdown due to massive rise in cases.
Hi Grumps
You are right in pointing out that the region of 'the Community of Madrid' is having a bad time. I agree that it is far from over in Spain. https://www.wsj.com/articles/facing-res ... 602263159

However, the 'Community of Madrid' is just one region of Spain. It is currently the region with the highest transmission rate in the country (3,871 per 100,000). There is just one other region with a transmission rate above 3,000. Of the 18 regions, 12 of the regions have a transmission rate less than 2,000 and six have a transmission rate less than 1,000.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... -in-spain/

The overall picture in Spain is one of declining daily new infections. Have a look at the chart in the following page:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/

You will see that the current daily infection rate peaked on 18th of September at 10,909 (7 day moving average). It has now had three weeks of decline. Yesterday it was 7,189. Todays new figure for cases in Spain is 5,986.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Spain is one of the main epicentres for the virus. Whatever happens in Spain is likely to happen here a few weeks later.

In July when case rates were low in most European countries I was warning people on this site to look out for Spain because the data was on the rise. I was poo pooed in the traditional 'Up the Clarets' way. A couple of months later the cases were up to ten thousand plus per day. I am now saying that their daily infection rate is declining. This might be the first indications of an end to the virus.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:39 pm

Some people seem to be misinterpreting the meaning of 'herd immunity'. They think it means a strategy for combating the virus. They interpret it as the authorities doing very little or nothing so that the virus infects a large number of people. This is not the case. Herd immunity is the state of the nation in relation to the virus when the pandemic is over.

Definition
"Herd immunity happens when so many people in a community become immune to an infectious disease that it stops the disease from spreading". https://www.healthline.com/health/herd-immunity

Herd immunity does not necessarily have to occur because the virus has infected a large part of the population. It can occur in several ways:
  • Cross immunity from other viruses such as the 'common cold coronavirus'
  • People receiving thereputic doses of the the innoculum - perhaps by face masks keeping most of the virus particles out.
  • Some people being naturally resistant to the virus.
  • Vaccination programmes when available.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:46 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:55 pm
This is a bit of a shock (to me, anyhow)

The largest hometesting study for coronavirus suggests that new infections have reached 45,000 every day in England.

An analysis of swab tests taken by 175,000 people between 18 September and 5 October found that one in every 170 tests was returning a positive result.

The research, led by Imperial College London, reports that 0.60% of the population, or 60 per 10,000, had the SARS-CoV-2 virus, compared to 0.13% in the previous round of testing.
45,000 per day with an hospital admission rate of 491 (latest daily figure)https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 makes the virus look very weak at this stage. Are hospital admission rates about to sore or is the virus weakening?

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dougcollins » Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:52 pm

Spijed wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:59 pm
What happens if China really does develop the first vaccine?

It's clearly obvious from the rhetoric coming out of America that they won't have anything to do with it, and they'll put enormous pressure on the rest of the world not to use it either.


And we know that post-Brexit, if we don't do everything America tells us we're stuffed.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by boatshed bill » Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:58 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:46 pm
45,000 per day with an hospital admission rate of 491 (latest daily figure)https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 makes the virus look very weak at this stage. Are hospital admission rates about to sore or is the virus weakening?
Fine, if you're not one of the 491.
In fact, that figure is so tiny why don't we just pretend nothing is happening at all. ;)

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:00 pm

Problems with testing
Many of the daily positive test cases that are appearing in the stats may be false positives. The greater the number of people tested the higher the rate of 'false positives'.

In March/April tests were mainly being carried out on sick patients in hospitals. It was obvious that most of these were going to test positive. Once mass testing is introduced during a later stage of the pandemic testing becomes less accurate for the following reasons:
  • People who test positive could have had the virus a few months ago. Some could have had mild symptoms that they shrugged off as a cold. Others could have had no symptoms at all. However, they are still likely to be carrying around dead fragments of the virus which the test picks up.
  • Test kits not 100% accurate. Especially when testing on individuals with mild or no symptoms.
This is not to say that testing is not important. It is. It helps the authorities to find out where and how the virus is spreading so that they can target the various measures required.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:06 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:58 pm
Fine, if you're not one of the 491.
In fact, that figure is so tiny why don't we just pretend nothing is happening at all. ;)
Let's not do that. :D

Let's provide the best medical care that we can afford to help them fight the disease off. Let's hope a vaccine arrives asap so that we can end this mess once and for all. Let's all follow the guidelines about wearing masks and social distancing. Let's hope that I am right in the idea that the 'end of the pandemic may be in sight.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by boatshed bill » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:13 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:06 pm
Let's not do that. :D

Let's provide the best medical care that we can afford to help them fight the disease off. Let's hope a vaccine arrives asap so that we can end this mess once and for all. Let's all follow the guidelines about wearing masks and social distancing. Let's hope that I am right in the idea that the 'end of the pandemic may be in sight.
Absolutely.
But so many don't help the situation.
Opening the pubs was, in my opinion, the biggest mistake of all.
Sending students from all over the country to all parts of the country was pretty dumb too,.
All this talk of protecting the economy...if our country's economy depends on the survival of pubs and restaurants we've had it!
This user liked this post: Boss Hogg

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by tiger76 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:33 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:06 pm
Let's not do that. :D

Let's provide the best medical care that we can afford to help them fight the disease off. Let's hope a vaccine arrives asap so that we can end this mess once and for all. Let's all follow the guidelines about wearing masks and social distancing. Let's hope that I am right in the idea that the 'end of the pandemic may be in sight.
I'm glad they've finally updated the deaths to ensure the numbers are accurate, of course it's perfectly possible that some people died in the 1st wave who weren't tested, but it's better to try and be as accurate as possible to maintain the trust of the public which is rapidly diminishing.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-coul ... 1468.html

I admire your optimism UnderSeige, and we can only hope you're correct. And if people observe the common sense approach we should be able to mitigate the affects this winter, and by the spring touch wood we'll be over the worst.

We can't keep going in and out of lockdown as the economic and social impact will ultimately prove much worse than the virus itself, and we will have to learn to live with this virus at least for the next year or so until a vaccine emerges, or it blows itself out, the former is more likely than the latter.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by bfcjg » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:36 pm

Until this herd immunity fiasco is sorted I am not drinking cows milk.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Grumps » Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:05 am

Interesting from the head of health in the North East, where cases are rising. He says if you remove the 17 to 25 age group, the cases are actually flattening out in most areas and falling in others.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:17 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:46 pm
45,000 per day with an hospital admission rate of 491 (latest daily figure)https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 makes the virus look very weak at this stage. Are hospital admission rates about to sore or is the virus weakening?
2/3rds of hospital admissions are in the NW and you should read Inchy's post on this and how the NHS will buckle this time due to staff shortages unless the non-Covid NHS shuts down again. Personally I think admissions will continue to rise, i do not believe the virus is less virulent the proportion of admissions v positive cases has fallen as we are testing far more people and for many it is a mild disease. However to go about as though nothing has happened is fine but the more cases, the more admissions and the less likely emergency and elective non-Covid cases will be cared for and that could mean the erstwhile young who end up getting less good care for meningitis etc `The messages have not changed really, hands face space aims at saving the NHS, but this time to allow it to do two jobs-Covid-19 and routine work. To that hands face space should be added -get a flu jab if offered one and maybe buy one if not offered it free on the NHS.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:20 am

Grumps wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:05 am
Interesting from the head of health in the North East, where cases are rising. He says if you remove the 17 to 25 age group, the cases are actually flattening out in most areas and falling in others.
But admissions will carry on rising for a few weeks even if that stat continues. doesn't appear to be the case in the NW

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:41 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:17 am
2/3rds of hospital admissions are in the NW and you should read Inchy's post on this and how the NHS will buckle this time due to staff shortages unless the non-Covid NHS shuts down again. Personally I think admissions will continue to rise, i do not believe the virus is less virulent the proportion of admissions v positive cases has fallen as we are testing far more people and for many it is a mild disease. However to go about as though nothing has happened is fine but the more cases, the more admissions and the less likely emergency and elective non-Covid cases will be cared for and that could mean the erstwhile young who end up getting less good care for meningitis etc `The messages have not changed really, hands face space aims at saving the NHS, but this time to allow it to do two jobs-Covid-19 and routine work. To that hands face space should be added -get a flu jab if offered one and maybe buy one if not offered it free on the NHS.
Can't disagree with that. I do not think that the virus is weakening. I was comparing the 45,000 per day figure with the '491 hospital Covid cases figure' issued by the BBC yesterday. This looks very different from April. The figure of 45,000 per day looks very high when mortality and 'hospital case rates' are still fairly low. Especially since the current spike started in late August. How do we explain that?

In March/April hospital cases were much higher than they are now. Hospitals were extremely busy. The mortality rate was also very high during late March and throughout April. Above 700 per day throughout this time. This may occur again over the next few weeks but hopefully not to the extent of the March/April experience.

The question now is 'why are we not seeing the daily case rates translating into a much higher hospitalisation and mortality rate' as it did in April March? I don't know the answer to this but can make a few guesses:
  • Possibility that it still might translate into hospital cases but the time lag between cases and hospitalisations is greater?
  • No release of untested patients into care homes this time.
  • A higher proportion of people contracting the disease this time are in the younger age groups. Their immune systems have a greater capability of dealing with the virus before it develops into later stage serious illness. Many may have had the SARS-COV2 virus without ever contracting the COVID-19 symptoms
  • Greater use of mask wearing is causing the inoculum to be much lower when many people come into contact with the virus - even to therapeutic levels in some cases.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:45 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:20 am
But admissions will carry on rising for a few weeks even if that stat continues. doesn't appear to be the case in the NW
I expect them to rise for a weeks too but perhaps not as bad as March/April.

I am not sure where you and Grumps are getting your figures from. Is there a site that shows breakdown of 'age group hospitalisations' for each of the regions?

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:56 am

bfcjg wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:36 pm
Until this herd immunity fiasco is sorted I am not drinking cows milk.
:lol:

I hope that your pretending to be a bit dim to make a joke.

Herd Immunity = End of Virus = jobs saved = football back in stadiums = pubs open = normal Christmas

Also there is no evidence that you can contract SARS-COV2 through cows milk unless you drink it through an infected titty bottle. :D

Locked