SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

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CombatClaret
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:58 am

You could argue it has already ceased to be a Pandemic and is now Endemic like the common cold or seasonal flu, in that it is widespread and will have a constant presence. Even a vaccine will likely not eradicate the virus, very few are, Covid-19 will now become one of the diseases we deal with.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Dark Cloud » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:01 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:56 am
:lol:

I hope that your pretending to be a bit dim to make a joke.

Herd Immunity = End of Virus = jobs saved = football back in stadiums = pubs open = normal Christmas

Also there is no evidence that you can contract SARS-COV2 through cows milk unless you drink it through an infected titty bottle. :D
I'm now scared I might have been sucking on an infected titty!!! Crumbs, it's just one scary thing after another with this pandemic! :shock:
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UnderSeige
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:13 am

boatshed bill wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:13 pm
Absolutely.
But so many don't help the situation.
Opening the pubs was, in my opinion, the biggest mistake of all.
Sending students from all over the country to all parts of the country was pretty dumb too,.
All this talk of protecting the economy...if our country's economy depends on the survival of pubs and restaurants we've had it!
I think that the data points to you being correct with both pubs and students. I can't see how pubs are breaking even unless they ignore the regulations.

I think that the return of students to University was more about the Universities getting the income from tuition and accommodation fees rather than educating students. On Radio Lancashire the other day they were discussing students who were isolating in their accommodation blocks. The University was offering a service to deliver food to their rooms. £18 per day for three meals which cost £2.75 to make. The meals consisted of:
  • Breakfast - Pain o choc, granola bar, piece of fruit, glass of fruit juice
  • Lunch - sandwich (cheese and pickle on the day they were discussing it), packet of crisps, piece of fruit. bottle of water.
  • Evening meal - Chicken casserole, new potatoes and peas . A sweet and a soft drink.
https://thetab.com/uk/lancaster/2020/10 ... xes-20189

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:14 am

Dark Cloud wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:01 am
I'm now scared I might have been sucking on an infected titty!!! Crumbs, it's just one scary thing after another with this pandemic! :shock:
I guess it takes all sorts. :lol:
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:18 am

The number infected to hospital admissions is far less Undersiege and will remain so because we are, despite all the negative press, testing and tracing. March April we only tested those sick now we are getting to contacts, those with even mild symptoms will be getting tested too. It is to be hoped deaths will be down a bit due to dexamethasone and better ideas as to how to ventilate so the deaths in hospital per admission is likely to be a little lower than last time but I do not think they will be a massive reduction in the ratio. Numbers admitted should be lower because we hopefully will reduce infections in the community by obeying the rules better now that I hope folk will believe this remains a huge threat to the NHS. On the NHS there is one thing that cannot happen this time and will impact on beds- care homes will only take the infirm and elderly if they are pre-discharge tested and test negative. That will delay discharges unless we can get the 90 minute tests-we already have a few but will need more. Also as the NHS strives to keep some elective work going bed pressures will mount and of course there are the increased cases of flu etc seen in autumn and winter. We will continue to pay the price of listening to too many health economist who have told us for years we can do more with fewer beds so that now there is literally no slack in the system something front line staff (what the hell do we know about how to run the NHS) have been talking about for the last 20 years.
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UnderSeige
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:20 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:58 am
You could argue it has already ceased to be a Pandemic and is now Endemic like the common cold or seasonal flu, in that it is widespread and will have a constant presence. Even a vaccine will likely not eradicate the virus, very few are, Covid-19 will now become one of the diseases we deal with.
That is a really good point and is one of the other scenarios that I am currently thinking could happen. There have been 'coronavirus common colds' floating about for many years.

I still prefer the XYZ hypothesis that herd immunity is likely to be achieved due to the way in which SARS and MERS fizzled out and also because there is likely to be a vaccine. However, I think that what you say is a distinct possibility.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:22 am

Latest from Van Tam
Jonathan Van-Tam told MPs that intensive care units in the North West could be full within three weeks as the latest figures show there are now 3,090 Covid-19 patients being treated in English hospitals. This is just seven fewer than on March 23, when the national lockdown was imposed.

Fasten your seat belts and stick to the rules Hands face space (2 metres+) not forgetting save lives, save the NHS
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:30 am

Undersiege both SARS and MERS are for less infectious which is why the have not spread despite I think a few Mers cases flying in to the UK. Both these viruses are not sensible as they cause severe illnesses which kill people and little in the way of mild illness that spreads easily. A virus with 100% mortality will be dead itself pretty quickly.

UnderSeige
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:20 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:18 am
The number infected to hospital admissions is far less Undersiege and will remain so because we are, despite all the negative press, testing and tracing. March April we only tested those sick now we are getting to contacts, those with even mild symptoms will be getting tested too. It is to be hoped deaths will be down a bit due to dexamethasone and better ideas as to how to ventilate so the deaths in hospital per admission is likely to be a little lower than last time but I do not think they will be a massive reduction in the ratio. Numbers admitted should be lower because we hopefully will reduce infections in the community by obeying the rules better now that I hope folk will believe this remains a huge threat to the NHS. On the NHS there is one thing that cannot happen this time and will impact on beds- care homes will only take the infirm and elderly if they are pre-discharge tested and test negative. That will delay discharges unless we can get the 90 minute tests-we already have a few but will need more. Also as the NHS strives to keep some elective work going bed pressures will mount and of course there are the increased cases of flu etc seen in autumn and winter. We will continue to pay the price of listening to too many health economist who have told us for years we can do more with fewer beds so that now there is literally no slack in the system something front line staff (what the hell do we know about how to run the NHS) have been talking about for the last 20 years.
I think that many industries and organisations are run in such a way. When I used to work in a large insurance firm, the work load was always far too much for the staff to cope with. Projects were always being put on hold in order for other projects to be started. Sometimes for years. At the time that I retired, Microsoft was moving from Windows 8 to Windows 10. The firm were upgrading their operating systems from Windows XP to Windows 7.

In the 1980's, on my undergraduate degree, I took a module on 'Health Economics' that was run by Alan Maynard - a leading Health Economist that appeared on TV and radio at the time. The discussion at that time was mainly around 'Quality Adjusted Life Years'. However, hospital beds was part of the discussion. On one side of the debate was the idea that by keeping people in hospital for shorter periods of time, you could free up bed space and treat more patients. On the other side of the debate was if you release patients too early they will not recover properly and end up back in hospital.

UnderSeige
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:53 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:30 am
Undersiege both SARS and MERS are for less infectious which is why the have not spread despite I think a few Mers cases flying in to the UK. Both these viruses are not sensible as they cause severe illnesses which kill people and little in the way of mild illness that spreads easily. A virus with 100% mortality will be dead itself pretty quickly.
This is a good point and is the best argument that I have heard so far against the idea that the virus could cease to be a pandemic in the next three or four months.

SARS - I don't think that this virus self annihilated itself by killing all those infected (it killed 1 in 10) but was nowhere near as infectious as SARS-COV2. There were 8,098 reported cases of SARS worldwide and 774 deaths between 2002 and 2004.
The SARS pandemic was eventually brought under control in July 2003, following a policy of isolating people suspected of having the condition and screening all passengers travelling by air from affected countries for signs of the infection. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/sars/
MERS MERS is still around in a very limited way but again is no way near as infectious as SARS-COV2. There have been 1,360 cases worldwide and 527 deaths (4 in 10). The largest outbreak was in Korea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Ea ... y_syndrome
Image

You are right. I don't think that these are good supporting arguments for saying that SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future.

However, I still think the XYZ hypothesis leading to 'herd immunity', and supported by the current Spanish data is my preferred likely scenario at the moment (although there are other possible scenarios that I am holding as well).

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:22 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:22 am
Latest from Van Tam
Jonathan Van-Tam told MPs that intensive care units in the North West could be full within three weeks as the latest figures show there are now 3,090 Covid-19 patients being treated in English hospitals. This is just seven fewer than on March 23, when the national lockdown was imposed.

Fasten your seat belts and stick to the rules Hands face space (2 metres+) not forgetting save lives, save the NHS
Beware of Media Hype. The current data is not showing that this is likely to happen. If the data changes, I will change my opinion.

In reality there is also a skewing of this data towards the Northern Areas that are experiencing the current rise in cases. Some hospitals in these areas are likely to get very busy for a time. I believe that Blackpool is one of these at the moment. However, it is very easy for the media to focus in on these examples and make it look as though these are typical of the country overall. I don't believe that they do it on purpose. They are just following the stories.

The following graph shows the number of admissions per day from late March to now. We are around the same number of admissions per day as we were at the time of the March lockdown. At the time growth in cases and hospital admissions were growing exponentially. They are not doing that at the moment. If hospital admissions grow at the same rate as they did in March they will be doubling every five days- growing at over 2,000 per day in around ten days time.

Currently they are doubling every 15 days. If this continues it will take about a month to get to the levels we experienced in the mid April peak. One month following the March lockdown 'daily hospital admissions' had already peaked and were back below 1,500.

It has also taken over a month of rising admissions to get to where we are now. It doesn't look to be as bad as March unless the data starts to show something different in the near future.

Image


The next graph shows the total admissions for COVID at any one time. At the peak in April it was around 20,000. It is currently around 3,000. To repeat the March experience hospital admissions would have to be jumping from 3,000 to 20,000 in around 15-17 days. This would be roughly a thousand per day assuming that no one is dischaged or passes away.

Sky News
"The number of coronavirus patients in England's hospitals has also risen to 3,044 compared with 2,944 yesterday - the highest since 22 June. One week ago, on 1 October, there were 1,995 hospital admissions, according to government data".
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... y-12099236

Image


The situation is bad (especially when talking about lives being lost) but it's not as bad as the first peak in March.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:47 pm

I really hope you are right Undersiege but the NW is already struggling and what we are seeing in the hospital data is as a result of the rate of infection two weeks ago
Shall we compare our thoughts today with the facts in two weeks and for once I will be extremely happy to be shown to have been wrong in accepting the interpretation of the data from Van Tam and others
Seeing what has been happening on my doorstep I really do feel that he is correct

Take care one and all and you Undersiege as well as myself so that we can be posting at the end of October
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:45 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:47 pm
I really hope you are right Undersiege but the NW is already struggling and what we are seeing in the hospital data is as a result of the rate of infection two weeks ago
Shall we compare our thoughts today with the facts in two weeks and for once I will be extremely happy to be shown to have been wrong in accepting the interpretation of the data from Van Tam and others
Seeing what has been happening on my doorstep I really do feel that he is correct

Take care one and all and you Undersiege as well as myself so that we can be posting at the end of October
I hope that I am right too. I might not be but the current data is pointing to 'not as bad as March'. The Spanish Data is pointing to a reduction in new infections. If the data changes I will change my opinion.

All the best for now.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dermotdermot » Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:57 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:01 am
I'm now scared I might have been sucking on an infected titty!!! Crumbs, it's just one scary thing after another with this pandemic! :shock:
Once again, Dark Cloud speak with forked tongue.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Dark Cloud » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:47 pm

dermotdermot wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:57 pm
Once again, Dark Cloud speak with forked tongue.
Pretty soon there will be no pleasures left Dermot!! :(

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by bfcjg » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:54 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:56 am
:lol:

I hope that your pretending to be a bit dim to make a joke.

Herd Immunity = End of Virus = jobs saved = football back in stadiums = pubs open = normal Christmas

Also there is no evidence that you can contract SARS-COV2 through cows milk unless you drink it through an infected titty bottle. :D
I don't have to pretend.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dermotdermot » Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:12 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:47 pm
Pretty soon there will be no pleasures left Dermot!! :(
I do hope that you’re wrong, DC.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:59 pm

Spains Andalucia Already Flattenning the Curve of Second COVID-19 Wave

"Caseload has not been mirrored in hospital figures"
https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news ... ith-virus/

This was one of the hot spots in July/August. The hospital figures reached a third of the levels of the March peak and are now falling. Lets hope that this is followed by other Spanish regions, France and then the UK.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:16 pm

More Spain Coronavirus News

Why Spain? Spain is the current epicentre of the second spike. the UK is around two to two and a half months behind Spain. Spain has experienced falling daily case rates for the last three weeks.

"To be sure, doctors and politicians are not as terrified by Spain’s second wave as they were by its first. The mortality rate is roughly half the rate at the height of crisis — falling to 6.6 percent from the 12 percent peak in May.The median age of sufferers has dropped to around 37 from 60. Asymptomatic cases account for more than 50 percent of positive results, which is partly due to a fourfold rise in testing. And the health institutions feel much better prepared".

"Most of Coronavirus new cases are located in Madrid, followed by other bigger cities. Coronavirus hasn’t affected all territories the same way and new outbreaks are not spread all over Spain".
https://ohmygoodguide.com/coronavirus-s ... in-cities/

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:24 pm

Not looking like that here. We seem to be just reversing what happened last time. London spread outwards to other regions and now Northern regions spreading outwards and with the need to keep the NHS working normally it is going to be one hell of a struggle in the NW as we are hearing. Soon be over 100 deaths per day as my generation starts to cop for it again.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by IanMcL » Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:30 pm

An 'expert' on the radio, one day, said that eventually tge virus will mutate and we will not die. We may just be permanently ill/not like we were. If we die the virus has lost its host, so it is perpetually trying to find a way for both it and us to survive.

Not a good outcome for many and certainly not a reason to go 'herd'.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by boatshed bill » Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:31 pm

IanMcL wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:30 pm
An 'expert' on the radio, one day, said that eventually tge virus will mutate and we will not die. We may just be permanently ill/not like we were. If we die the virus has lost its host, so it is perpetually trying to find a way for both it and us to survive.

Not a good outcome for many and certainly not a reason to go 'herd'.
That almost sounds worse :o

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:44 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:24 pm
Not looking like that here. We seem to be just reversing what happened last time. London spread outwards to other regions and now Northern regions spreading outwards and with the need to keep the NHS working normally it is going to be one hell of a struggle in the NW as we are hearing. Soon be over 100 deaths per day as my generation starts to cop for it again.
It probably won't look like that here for a few weeks. We look to be a couple of months behind Spain. The NHS are likely to be extremely busy in some regions going into November. If the Spanish curve keeps falling over the next few weeks and the French curve flattens and starts falling in two to four weeks time, it is likely that the UK curve will also flatten and fall in November and December.

If that XYZ hypothesis is correct then only a percentage (possibly 20-30%) are vulnerable to the virus. That would explain why London has not been hit hard this time yet. It may be that there are less vulnerable people this time round due to most of the vulnerable people from last time now being immune.

The virus needs a large number of vulnerable people in order to keep spreading. As this group get's smaller the virus struggles to find new people that it can spread to.

Stay safe mddd2.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:01 pm

IanMcL wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:30 pm
An 'expert' on the radio, one day, said that eventually tge virus will mutate and we will not die. We may just be permanently ill/not like we were. If we die the virus has lost its host, so it is perpetually trying to find a way for both it and us to survive.

Not a good outcome for many and certainly not a reason to go 'herd'.
Coronavirus does not mutate as readily as the flu. It could take some time for that to occur. There was a really good interview on the 'Financial Sense News Hour' the other week, with Dr. Hugh Pennington (emeritus professor of bacteriology) of Aberdeen University, that discusses the mutation issue. I think that it is the best interview on the pandemic that I have heard. It helps in that Jim Puplava asks all the right questions and then gives the professor time and space to answer them. It's a pity it only lasts for 24 minutes.
https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/ ... econd-wave

'Herd Immunity' is currently misunderstood. When 'Herd Immunity' occurs the virus is over. We will get to it eventually. Hopefully a vaccine will be available soon to speed things up.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by HunterST_BFC » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:44 pm

October 12th

Tiers of a Clown

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:38 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:01 pm
Coronavirus does not mutate as readily as the flu. It could take some time for that to occur. There was a really good interview on the 'Financial Sense News Hour' the other week, with Dr. Hugh Pennington (emeritus professor of bacteriology) of Aberdeen University, that discusses the mutation issue. I think that it is the best interview on the pandemic that I have heard. It helps in that Jim Puplava asks all the right questions and then gives the professor time and space to answer them. It's a pity it only lasts for 24 minutes.
https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/ ... econd-wave

'Herd Immunity' is currently misunderstood. When 'Herd Immunity' occurs the virus is over. We will get to it eventually. Hopefully a vaccine will be available soon to speed things up.
Both are RNA viruses and as such frequently mutate but usually the wild type prevails until the mutation confers advantages. This has mutated many times already which is why it is possible sometimes to sort out where hot spots for the virus have come from, but the mutations we see do not appear to have altered its infectivity or pathogenicity. An outbreak in Iceland was traced to the midlands in the UK. This has not been around for long enough to know if it will behave like flu. Flu's natural host I think is birds where it causes a gastro-intestinal illness. A strain will jump and infect a second intermediate host like the pig or horse and then become more easily transmissible to humans and then human to human. Human to human transmission of bird flu is usually difficult but occasionally a pandemic arises when the holes line up so to speak-bird-to secondary host-humans-humans and away we go.
We cannot know how this and other coronaviruses will behave into the future as yet.
On the question of London-just wait cases will be on the up there soon.
We were surprised about Leicester having all those cases and few if any admissions to hospital.
Sadly they are looking like the exception. Already 30% of ITU beds in one NW hospital occupied by Covid patients and we have hardly started.
If people do not keep to the rules it is going to be disastrous for the NHS and its staff many of whom are pretty shell shocked from the first wave but will be expected to soldier on again but this time plus flu and keeping the NHS functioning for other emergency and elective work.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:36 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:38 pm
Both are RNA viruses and as such frequently mutate but usually the wild type prevails until the mutation confers advantages. This has mutated many times already which is why it is possible sometimes to sort out where hot spots for the virus have come from, but the mutations we see do not appear to have altered its infectivity or pathogenicity. An outbreak in Iceland was traced to the midlands in the UK. This has not been around for long enough to know if it will behave like flu. Flu's natural host I think is birds where it causes a gastro-intestinal illness. A strain will jump and infect a second intermediate host like the pig or horse and then become more easily transmissible to humans and then human to human. Human to human transmission of bird flu is usually difficult but occasionally a pandemic arises when the holes line up so to speak-bird-to secondary host-humans-humans and away we go.
We cannot know how this and other coronaviruses will behave into the future as yet.
On the question of London-just wait cases will be on the up there soon.
We were surprised about Leicester having all those cases and few if any admissions to hospital.
Sadly they are looking like the exception. Already 30% of ITU beds in one NW hospital occupied by Covid patients and we have hardly started.
If people do not keep to the rules it is going to be disastrous for the NHS and its staff many of whom are pretty shell shocked from the first wave but will be expected to soldier on again but this time plus flu and keeping the NHS functioning for other emergency and elective work.
Have I listen to the podcast that I linked in the my last post. It is an interview of Hugh Pennington emeritus professor of bacteriology of Aberdeen University. Jim Puplava is one of the worlds best interviewers. He always get's the best out of the people who he interviews.

Highlights
  • A second wave is essentially a flu phenomenon and the classic example that people refer to is the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. With corona virus's there has never been a second wave
  • The RNA of the virus has a 'proof reading mechanism' that takes out most of the mutants. There is much less mutation than with flu.
  • There is absolutely no evidence that any mutations have altered the behaviour of the virus. The virus has not mutated to make it more or less transmissible neither has it become more or less virulent.
  • There is no clinical evidence that the virus has changed in it's properties. It is essentially the same virus as the one that started in China in December.
  • We will get a vaccine according to Dr. Pennington. Due to the number of projects currently running, some of them are bound to be successful.
  • If a vaccine is going to be very successful it will have to be better than the flu vaccine in order to offer protection to the elderly.
  • Vaccination will be a public health challenge.
  • Meetings in pubs, clubs etc are a great boost to the virus in helping it spread. Need to be stopped.
  • Need to address the 'virus spreading activities' that we know to be a problem (meat plants, pubs, care homes, colleges etc.). Keep addressing these whilst the virus winds down.
  • "Optimistic expectation is that we should be in a position in the not to distant future where we get a grip on the virus and get rid of the damn thing altogether".


Currently, a lot of people are getting infected. My take on this is that for each one that becomes infected and becomes immune, there is one less for the virus to spread to. The trick, in regard to regulations is to ensure that people who do become infected do not spread the virus to more than one other person (especially the vulnerable). There has been a lot of talk about keeping the R0 rate below 1. This is the aim.

Eventually the virus will then end as it finds less people that it can infect. At some point along this process, cases fall to a significantly low level that the governments can then call an end to the pandemic and fully release from lockdown. When I started this thread, I was saying that we could reach this point soon. By the end of the year and certainly by next spring.

The wildcard is 'whether and when' a vaccine becomes available. From what I have read from numerous articles, the governments of the world should be starting mass vaccination programs early next year. There is also the possibility of some vaccinations starting towards the end of this year. This is also a reason why I think that SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:38 pm

Thanks undersiege. I do not know why he says that this rna virus does not mutate like flu as it has not been around long enough for us to know if other strains in animals will jump the way flu does-both are mutating all the time.
Sadly your near future prediction won't be near enough as the attrition rate will continue well into next year sadly. See the news about flu vaccine? That might help a bit. I think two big studies-not double blind or case controlled-show a reduced death rate in those pre-immunised against flu; and of vourse there is the thoughts around using BCG although that has and I think may still be in use for ?bladder cancer.
Pennington is a pretty shrewd man.
Certainly in the NW we are seeing a resurgence of the first wave as it has never gone away but that is really semantics.
As for it not mutating I have copied this about an elderly Dutch lady. Clarification will be needed of course
"Woman was hospitalised and tested positive for Covid twice, two months apart
Doctors said her second illness was 'likely reinfection' because virus differed
They saw at least 10 changes on the genetic material of the virus the second time
But patient did not test negative between the two bouts, casting doubt on case
There have not yet been publicly acknowledged deaths from a second infection"

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dsr » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:11 pm

mdd2 - I think there are two or things that you are looking only on the black side about, that aren't anything like as bad as you fear.

1. When they say that having a virus once confers immunity from getting it again, they don't mena "without exception". You can't get measles twice - except that you can. For most people getting it once confers immunity from getting it again, but there are occasional exceptions. Most viruses are like that and there is no reason yet to suppose this one is different.

2. The professor isn't saying that this virus will not mutate easily, he is saying that RNA viruses as a group don't mutate easily and there is no reason to suppose this one is different.

3. We aren't seeing a repeat of the first wave. In the first wave, the number of hospitalisations reached 1,500 on March 20, then doubled in 3 days, doubled again in 4, doubled again in 5, and increased by half in another 7 to reach its peak of 18,000 in hospital. This "wave" is moving at nowhere near that speed.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:39 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:38 pm
Thanks undersiege. I do not know why he says that this rna virus does not mutate like flu as it has not been around long enough for us to know if other strains in animals will jump the way flu does-both are mutating all the time.
Over the last six months Universities have undertaken extensive genome sequencing to find out if the SARS-COV2 virus is mutating. As stated in my last post, there are small mutations but nothing that has significantly affected the properties of the virus. Both clinicians and Universities have been undertaking these studies since the start of the pandemic. This was also communicated by the SAGE group that advises the government recently.

Also as dsr says "RNA viruses as a group don't mutate easily and there is no reason to suppose this one is different".
Sadly your near future prediction won't be near enough as the attrition rate will continue well into next year sadly.
My near term prediction is that the virus will likely cease to be a pandemic sometime between Christmas and Easter. For the next few weeks it is likely to continue to rise in some areas but nowhere near the way it spiked in March.

Certainly in the NW we are seeing a resurgence of the first wave as it has never gone away but that is really semantics.
As for it not mutating I have copied this about an elderly Dutch lady. Clarification will be needed of course
"Woman was hospitalised and tested positive for Covid twice, two months apart
Doctors said her second illness was 'likely reinfection' because virus differed
They saw at least 10 changes on the genetic material of the virus the second time
But patient did not test negative between the two bouts, casting doubt on case
There have not yet been publicly acknowledged deaths from a second infection"
I think that we need more evidence than the odd anecdotal. I have heard of several cases of re-infection but these are isolated cases. When and if there is mounting data to back this up I will change my opinion.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by NottsClaret » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:49 pm

For all the talk and tutting about beaches / sport / schools / pubs etc, I know half a dozen people who've had positive tests over the last month. All of them got it at work. That's not to say you can't minimise risks in other areas, but we can't stop working.

If we were testing on a Chinese scale, and test and trace was more than some half-arsed call centre guy reading a script to you for 10 minutes, then we'd probably be able to nip the workplace outbreaks in the bud. But £12billion only buys you so much I guess.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:59 pm

dsr wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:11 pm
We aren't seeing a repeat of the first wave. In the first wave, the number of hospitalisations reached 1,500 on March 20, then doubled in 3 days, doubled again in 4, doubled again in 5, and increased by half in another 7 to reach its peak of 18,000 in hospital. This "wave" is moving at nowhere near that speed.
I think that this is the key to understanding the current situation. Things are not moving as quickly as they were in March.

On the lunchtime news today there was the shock announcement that the mortality rate is doubling every two weeks. At the peak in April it was 943. From the government lockdown to the peak it took three weeks to reach this level.

The UK seven day moving average on mortalities is currently 72. If it continues to double every two weeks it will take until the second week of December to get to the levels that it was in April. It has taken a month and a half to get to 72.

Two months after the March lockdown mortality rates had peaked and were back down to the 250 level.

The bottom line is that the data is currently showing that the virus situation is not as bad as March. The economic situation is another matter though.

I think the government is currently doing most things right but it would be better if they could do it without all of the confusion.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:01 pm

NottsClaret wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:49 pm
For all the talk and tutting about beaches / sport / schools / pubs etc, I know half a dozen people who've had positive tests over the last month. All of them got it at work. That's not to say you can't minimise risks in other areas, but we can't stop working.

If we were testing on a Chinese scale, and test and trace was more than some half-arsed call centre guy reading a script to you for 10 minutes, then we'd probably be able to nip the workplace outbreaks in the bud. But £12billion only buys you so much I guess.
It seems to be spreading in enclosed indoor areas. Especially poorly ventilated one's and also cool areas such as food processing plants.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dibraidio » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:02 pm

There is a story on the BBC about a man who has had covid twice. My better half has been speaking to colleagues, two of whom have tested positive in the spring but since had antibody tests that show that they have no antibodies.

To me that's the worrying thing. I read that the Johnson & Johnson and the Oxford University Astra Zeneca vaccine are based on the common cold. Surely if Covid is like the common cold we won't get an effective vaccine and we won't get immunity to it?

If that's the case surely this means we're just going to have to get used to it and hope that doctors and researchers can find effective treatments.

In reply to mdd2 from a few days ago, I won't take you up on your offer of showing me your dusty slides but it's a fascinating subject, thanks for sharing your knowledge.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:08 pm

dibraidio wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:02 pm
There is a story on the BBC about a man who has had covid twice. My better half has been speaking to colleagues, two of whom have tested positive in the spring but since had antibody tests that show that they have no antibodies.

To me that's the worrying thing. I read that the Johnson & Johnson and the Oxford University Astra Zeneca vaccine are based on the common cold. Surely if Covid is like the common cold we won't get an effective vaccine and we won't get immunity to it?

If that's the case surely this means we're just going to have to get used to it and hope that doctors and researchers can find effective treatments.
What's just as confusing as the possibility of somebody getting twice, is that it's also rare.

You would expect it to be a case of yes or no - the population of the world will get it again, or they won't. But it seems to be only some individuals get it twice as taken from the article.

"So far, reinfection seems to be rare - there have been only a few examples out of more than 37 million confirmed cases".

37 million confirmed cases - since March, you would certainly expect it to be a high number if everybody could get it again.

Especially as those 37 million will be more likely to think they're immune and so less likely to social distance and take precautions as much.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dsr » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:17 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:08 pm
What's just as confusing as the possibility of somebody getting twice, is that it's also rare.

You would expect it to be a case of yes or no - the population of the world will get it again, or they won't. But it seems to be only some individuals get it twice as taken from the article.

"So far, reinfection seems to be rare - there have been only a few examples out of more than 37 million confirmed cases".

37 million confirmed cases - since March, you would certainly expect it to be a high number if everybody could get it again.
I agree entirely. The UK has 635,000 confirmed cases, which is near enough 1 in 100 people, By the law of averages, if getting the disease did not grant immunity, you would expect 1 in 100 new cases to be of people who have had it before - that would be over 100 a day at present. This isn't happening. Getting coronavirus gives short term immunity, for all but a tiny few exceptions, guaranteed.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dibraidio » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:49 pm

dsr, Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US said "When you look at the history of coronaviruses, the common coronaviruses that cause the common cold, the reports in the literature are that the durability of immunity that’s protective ranges from three to six months to almost always less than a year"

Some cases like the guy in Nevada who was re-infected after 45 days may have an exceptionally short duration of immunity but we won't know until next year if this strain is behaving like other coronaviruses. This is part of the problem, this virus is so new that we don't know how it's going to behave long term.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:04 pm

dibraidio wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:49 pm
dsr, Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US said "When you look at the history of coronaviruses, the common coronaviruses that cause the common cold, the reports in the literature are that the durability of immunity that’s protective ranges from three to six months to almost always less than a year"

Some cases like the guy in Nevada who was re-infected after 45 days may have an exceptionally short duration of immunity but we won't know until next year if this strain is behaving like other coronaviruses. This is part of the problem, this virus is so new that we don't know how it's going to behave long term.
This is the view of the vast majority of the medical science community and whilst herd immunity would be brilliant those talking it up as a likely possibility are getting hooked in by some iffy people or even worse are just spouting a baseless opinion just because it supports their wider view on Covid and dealing with it.

Reality is things are so new and complex the best bet is to keep an open mind and try and follow what the consensus is from the majority of experts on what the best current path is until we have enough understanding to support a better path

Unfortunately if you look at the consensus around the best ways to manage this as we stand today from both a health and economic perpescetive then our govt has made a right pigs ear of it

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:02 pm

Immunity to many coronarviruses is short
We should revisit this in 12 to 18 months for the answers and that will be important for the vaccine as it may need an annual shot of immunity proves to be short lived
A colleagues wife who works for NHS and was antibody positive when staff were screened one the antibody test was available is presently recovering from Covid not having been ill with it before
What the antibodies she had have been doing only the almighty knows
Too much unknown about this at present
Best to wrk with what we know
It is dangerous for some and it is returning with a vengeance
Social distancing of two metres hand washing properly wearing face masks properly and trying not to mix will help to lower R under 1
That will allow the NHS to do its usual very busy workload into spring of 2021
Oh and despite what has been said this like other rna viruses mutates a lot but as is also often the case the mutants do less well than the wild type and do not often supersede the wild type

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:38 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:04 pm
This is the view of the vast majority of the medical science community and whilst herd immunity would be brilliant those talking it up as a likely possibility are getting hooked in by some iffy people or even worse are just spouting a baseless opinion just because it supports their wider view on Covid and dealing with it.

Reality is things are so new and complex the best bet is to keep an open mind and try and follow what the consensus is from the majority of experts on what the best current path is until we have enough understanding to support a better path

Unfortunately if you look at the consensus around the best ways to manage this as we stand today from both a health and economic perpescetive then our govt has made a right pigs ear of it
Yes there is still a lot that science does not know. There are also people in the scientific, business and political communities who tend to fashion their ideas around some form of self-interest whether this be financial, political, academic or otherwise.

There seems to almost be a split between left and right or brexit/remain relating to how the virus spreads and how it should be handled. Right/Brexit tend to go for the idea the we need to allow the virus to run through the community whilst protecting the vulnerable. This, they believe, will then lead to 'herd immunity' with minimum economic impact. The left/remain tend to argue for more restrictions and lockdowns with the government borrowing/printing trillions of pounds to keep people and businesses afloat. One would likely lead to a humanitarian disaster (much worst than we have seen so far) the other an economic disaster (also much worst than we have seen so far).

In order to avoid becoming dogmatic or end up following 'iffy people' and politically charged scientific ideas we need to be following the data and also scientific studies. The lesson is - 'know your teachers'. Good one's will refer to the data and how the data was collated. They will refer to studies and give a critique on how the study was conducted. They will not have any political bias or business interest.

'Herd Immunity' has been misunderstood by many. Every pandemic that the world has ever had has ended with 'herd immunity'. It is simply the situation in which the virus can find very few vulnerable people to infect. The Spanish Flu ended with 'herd immunity'. There was nothing else to stop it. The Black Death killed half of the population and changed history before 'herd immunity' was reached.

From what we know so far there is a movement towards herd immunity. In every country (bar the far east countries that locked down quickly) the data shows that there there is initially a steep rise in cases followed by a steep fall and tailing off. It doesn't matter whether the country imposes strong restrictions or weak restrictions, the graphs are very similar.

In countries that have have 'locked down' (March April in Europe) and then started to release lockdown, a second peak occurs due to the number of vulnerable people returning to circulation (having been previously protected by lockdown). The second peak is slower to take off and, if Spain's current data movement is leading the rest of Europe it starts to tail off having infected less people than the first peak with much lower hospitalisations, and mortalities than the first peak.

Questions then remain such as 'will this second tightening of measures lead to a third peak when they are lifted?' Will a vaccine soon be available to help end the pandemic more quickly?

As far as the government goes I could write a book about the catalogue of errors. However, when comparing the UK against other European countries and the USA, we have fared around average.
Last edited by UnderSeige on Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:52 pm

Great post Undersiege. We have to flatten this wave or the NHS will buckle as it did last time. If we have to open up Nightingale beds as well as carry on with non Covid work etc where are the staff coming from to do all of this. The NHS did not cope last time because it shut down most non-Covid work and this time we are going to have RSV flu and Covid additional to the routine stuff.
We are in for a rough month and maybe longer if these quasi lockdowns do not work and if they don't it cannot be the Government's fault as we all know what to do 1) SD 2 metres 2) wash hands frequently 3) wear masks 4) do not congregate in numbers especially inside. 5) Isolate if you develop fever cough or loss of taste/smell.
How many chapters and pages in your book? :D :D

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:59 am

mdd2 wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:52 pm
Great post Undersiege. We have to flatten this wave or the NHS will buckle as it did last time. If we have to open up Nightingale beds as well as carry on with non Covid work etc where are the staff coming from to do all of this. The NHS did not cope last time because it shut down most non-Covid work and this time we are going to have RSV flu and Covid additional to the routine stuff.
We are in for a rough month and maybe longer if these quasi lockdowns do not work and if they don't it cannot be the Government's fault as we all know what to do 1) SD 2 metres 2) wash hands frequently 3) wear masks 4) do not congregate in numbers especially inside. 5) Isolate if you develop fever cough or loss of taste/smell.
How many chapters and pages in your book? :D :D
The Covid measures should also help to dampen the flu virus this year. The flu virus threat will come from school children who can catch and spread flu much more easily than they can spread SARS-COV2. I don't think that there has been a big effort to vaccinate children against the flu although they are eligible to receive one.

Chapters and pages? More than I would like to think about. :D

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by keith1879 » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:04 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:38 pm


'Herd Immunity' has been misunderstood by many. Every pandemic that the world has ever had has ended with 'herd immunity'. It is simply the situation in which the virus can find very few vulnerable people to infect. The Spanish Flu ended with 'herd immunity'. There was nothing else to stop it. The Black Death killed half of the population and changed history before 'herd immunity' was reached.

As far as I can see from all the scientific sources that I have consulted (I am not an epidemiologist) the very idea of herd immunity without a vaccine is a non-starter. Can you show a source for the suggestion that the Black Death and Spanish Flu ended in herd immunity?

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:44 pm

The Great fire of London saw off a lot of Black death.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dsr » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:09 am

keith1879 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:04 pm
As far as I can see from all the scientific sources that I have consulted (I am not an epidemiologist) the very idea of herd immunity without a vaccine is a non-starter. Can you show a source for the suggestion that the Black Death and Spanish Flu ended in herd immunity?
see attached article wrote: Spanish Flu Pandemic Ends
By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity.
https://www.history.com/topics/world-wa ... u-pandemic

Here's one source. Looks like a reputable site, but of course it's not a medical specialist.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Fretters » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:43 am

dibraidio wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:02 pm
There is a story on the BBC about a man who has had covid twice. My better half has been speaking to colleagues, two of whom have tested positive in the spring but since had antibody tests that show that they have no antibodies.

To me that's the worrying thing. I read that the Johnson & Johnson and the Oxford University Astra Zeneca vaccine are based on the common cold. Surely if Covid is like the common cold we won't get an effective vaccine and we won't get immunity to it?


If that's the case surely this means we're just going to have to get used to it and hope that doctors and researchers can find effective treatments.

In reply to mdd2 from a few days ago, I won't take you up on your offer of showing me your dusty slides but it's a fascinating subject, thanks for sharing your knowledge.
Just a couple of points on this, I think we're seeing that T cells are more important that antibodies. Whereas antibodies might only last a few months, it's the body's T cell immunity that might actually protect us for much longer.

As for the common cold, a lot have asked how we can find a cure for this particular coronavirus when we can't cure the common cold. But have we ever actually seriously tried? A cold is a mild, non dangerous illness so it's never been worth the required resources. If we pumped billions into it, and got scientists around the world working on it (like with the new coronavirus), maybe we'd have found a cure for it.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Stayingup » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:00 am

I have just been told this morning from China that another virus has been discovered in Jiangsu and a lot of students have it.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:42 am

Stayingup wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:00 am
I have just been told this morning from China that another virus has been discovered in Jiangsu and a lot of students have it.
This is from August 5th:

According to media reports, more than 37 people in East China's Jiangsu Province have contracted with the virus - SFTS Virus in the first half of the year; and later 23 people was found infected in East China's Anhui Province.

SFTS Virus is not a new virus. China has isolated pathogene of the virus in 2011, and it belongs to Bunya virus category. Virologists believed it maybe passed to human being by ticks, and that the virus can be transmitted between humans.

Doctors warned that tick bites is the major transmission route, as long as people remain cautious, there's no need to over panic over such virus contagion.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1196820.shtml

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Stayingup » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:32 am

FactualFrank wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:42 am
This is from August 5th:

According to media reports, more than 37 people in East China's Jiangsu Province have contracted with the virus - SFTS Virus in the first half of the year; and later 23 people was found infected in East China's Anhui Province.

SFTS Virus is not a new virus. China has isolated pathogene of the virus in 2011, and it belongs to Bunya virus category. Virologists believed it maybe passed to human being by ticks, and that the virus can be transmitted between humans.

Doctors warned that tick bites is the major transmission route, as long as people remain cautious, there's no need to over panic over such virus contagion.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1196820.shtml
OK I missed that. I was told by an associate from Shanghai this morning. Actually it could be another one!!! Heaven forbid. It certainly hasn't held back Chinese stocks. Up 17% this year.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by keith1879 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:25 pm

dsr wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:09 am
https://www.history.com/topics/world-wa ... u-pandemic

Here's one source. Looks like a reputable site, but of course it's not a medical specialist.
Thanks - it seems very informative and it proves me wrong. The key quote I believe is this.

"By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity. "

There is a similar conclusion at this link......https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/03/how ... entury-ago.

Just in case anyone is still fancying the idea of deliberately seeking herd immunity without a vaccine .....the population of the UK is 66 million. Herd immunity for Covid-19 requires that approximately 60% of the poulation is immune - so with or without a vaccine that needs about 40 million people to be immune, and without a vaccine that needs 40 million people to be exposed to the disease, and on average 1 in 100 will die....so that is 400,0000 deaths. And even then we still don't know if catching the disease actually confers permanent immunity. I believe that current estimates are that 1 in 10 of our population have been exposed to the illness...and over 40,0000 have died.

Locked