Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

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CombatClaret
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by CombatClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:08 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:04 pm
I suppose we have eradicated smallpox. Apart from keeping the virus in labs, of course.
Also something call Ridnerpest.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rinderpest

And while not eradicating we've been able to effectively control Polio, Tetanus, Hepatitis, Rubella, Measles, Mumps, Hibs, Chickenpox, Ditherier etc.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by boatshed bill » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:09 pm

ksrclaret wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:06 pm
Another lockdown will definitely be the answer this time, though.
But not a 3 week one. Not long enough.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:11 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:08 pm
Also something call Ridnerpest.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rinderpest

And while not eradicating we've been able to effectively control Polio, Tetanus, Hepatitis, Rubella, Measles, Mumps, Hibs, Chickenpox, Ditherier etc.
I didn't think I'd seen Hibs on here for a while, didn't realised he was being controlled though :D
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Awayfromburnley » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:12 pm

I can only repeat what I ve said before. But now with a bit of background

1 colleague has been seriously ill with it. 38yrs old.
1 colleagues parent with hours left to live, he has it.
1 distant colleague dead from it.

That said I know about a dozen who have had it but have recovered. Some no issues, some ongoing.

There are some home truths that need to be carefully spoken, that in effect will change our world, society and our way of life. It really could destroy countries in a similar way to a civil war does. It isn't pretty at all, you cannot sugar coat it.

This disease is dangerous. We don't have a vaccine. The blasé attitude of many is amplifying the issue.

We need to accept for 2 or 3 years pubs (for example) are not an option. Yes devastating for many especially those that work in them.

Until a president or PM goes onto TV and openly says our wya of life will change, instead of the semi denial, then there will be ambiguity.

We all need to shoulder some responsibility and not mix and be care free as some are.

Yes, unfortunately the economy will tank, but economies recover. Dead people don't.

We are heading for more lockdown and yes they do work as it restricts many of the people that would otherwise spread it with their blasé attitude.

Life is having to change, it is rubbish but we have to accept it. Get used to being stuck with who you live with, or get someone to live with you.

We are in for a seriously bumpy ride.

Sorry if that is grim. It's reality. It's really that bad. I am sure I will get grief for this, but it is a fact.

Though you can help reduce the impact :

1 just wear a bloody mask it reduces your snoz sharing
2 just keep a 2m gap, only weirdos can't do that
3 stop ignoring guidance, you aren't invincible
4 if you do not believe it is real and are one of those deniers, take it from me, personally and professionally, it is absolutely real and my clinical colleagues are near to breaking.

Chin up, get on with what you can. Head down and do the time. We can and will beat this but we all have to play our part.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by boatshed bill » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:16 pm

How many supermarkets can go close to guaranteeing that people can keep 2m apart? Few have aisles that wide.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:18 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:00 pm
No one has ever said lockdowns stop viruses, it will be put in place to stop healthcare being overwhelmed so they can save as many salvable lives as possible. And by not overwhelming health services we can treat other non-covid health issues as myself and others here can attest to over the last 8months.
This. I'm reading on social media people saying that Tier 3 won't be enough to defeat the virus - it's like you say, to stop hospital admissions going through the roof, not to realistically make the virus vanish.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Spijed » Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:25 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:16 pm
How many supermarkets can go close to guaranteeing that people can keep 2m apart? Few have aisles that wide.
Won't they just go back to the procedures that we had during lockdown?

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by boatshed bill » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:15 pm

Spijed wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:25 pm
Won't they just go back to the procedures that we had during lockdown?
I'm not sure that all of them paid enough attention.
The social distancing is really difficult.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Granny WeatherWax » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:17 pm

I work at East Lancs Hospitals, situation is dire. Unfortunately a lengthy lockdown is the only thing that might work, tier 3 restrictions certainly won’t.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by FCBurnley » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:27 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:12 pm
Very sorry to hear FCBurnley. Does she have any underlying health conditions and/or work where Covid is more likely to be found?
Thanks Frank. She has mild asthma and is overweight but only works part time at a school. We don’t know where she thinks she contracted it But I guess when you have 3 children 10-18 it could come from anywhere

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by FCBurnley » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:33 pm

CNN did a report yesterday from Blackburn Royal ICU. Watch it on you tube. It will show you how bad it really is. Very scary stuff

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by NottsClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:37 pm

Granny WeatherWax wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:17 pm
I work at East Lancs Hospitals, situation is dire. Unfortunately a lengthy lockdown is the only thing that might work, tier 3 restrictions certainly won’t.
What’s the difference between Tier 3 and ‘lockdown’? Is it just shutting schools.. because that’s a hugely damaging step to take again, with massive consequences on a whole generation.

Beyond that, I can’t see what else there is to do. Everyone I know who’s had it - all fine now - got it at work. Workplaces which were open during the original ‘lockdown’. So not much room there.

If we do mean closing schools and wreaking havoc on kids’ lives and prospects, let’s have the balls to say it. They’re just going to have to suffer for the benefit of the elderly. Ok, but let’s not hear again about how selfish, lazy and privileged this current crop of youngsters are, in comparison with their brave, selfless elders.. letting them take a bullet on their behalf.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:40 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:15 pm
I'm not sure that all of them paid enough attention.
The social distancing is really difficult.
The only thing that's difficult with social distancing is when other people don't give a toss, can't follow one way systems in supermarkets and only think about themselves.

I saw whole families shopping during the first lockdown, they were getting close to older people who looked terrified but the other idiots just didn't care.

It's almost like people became stupid when it comes to looking out for others etc.

More than a few times I had to tell idiots to eff off if they were ignoring all the rules, or I'd stand in the middle of the aisle if they're going to wrong way until they got the point, and they'd look at me like I'm the bad one...

Social distancing is easy to do in shops if enough people give a toss, unfortunately there are large numbers of people who seemingly don't care or understand
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by JohnDearyMe » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:45 pm

FCBurnley wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:33 pm
CNN did a report yesterday from Blackburn Royal ICU. Watch it on you tube. It will show you how bad it really is. Very scary stuff
Watched that report, very sobering. We could do with reports like that on the BBC & ITV news to help get the message out.

Would like to say i was shocked to see that NHS staff are getting abuse from members of the public who believe it is a hoax or being over egged but there are so many idiots out there spreading disinformation

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by boatshed bill » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:46 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:40 pm
The only thing that's difficult with social distancing is when other people don't give a toss, can't follow one way systems in supermarkets and only think about themselves.

I saw whole families shopping during the first lockdown, they were getting close to older people who looked terrified but the other idiots just didn't care.

It's almost like people became stupid when it comes to looking out for others etc.

More than a few times I had to tell idiots to eff off if they were ignoring all the rules, or I'd stand in the middle of the aisle if they're going to wrong way until they got the point, and they'd look at me like I'm the bad one...

Social distancing is easy to do in shops if enough people give a toss, unfortunately there are large numbers of people who seemingly don't care or understand
You are absolutely right.
Unfortunately, unless shops physically enforce a one way system (take everything off one side of the aisles?, might do the trick) people's self interest over-rules everything else.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Spijed » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:47 pm

NottsClaret wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:37 pm
What’s the difference between Tier 3 and ‘lockdown’? Is it just shutting schools.. because that’s a hugely damaging step to take again, with massive consequences on a whole generation.

Beyond that, I can’t see what else there is to do. Everyone I know who’s had it - all fine now - got it at work. Workplaces which were open during the original ‘lockdown’. So not much room there.

If we do mean closing schools and wreaking havoc on kids’ lives and prospects, let’s have the balls to say it. They’re just going to have to suffer for the benefit of the elderly. Ok, but let’s not hear again about how selfish, lazy and privileged this current crop of youngsters are, in comparison with their brave, selfless elders.. letting them take a bullet on their behalf.
Isn't the issue simply that if too many people get it the hospitals won't be able to cope, regardless of age?

We never want a situation where some people get turned away because there aren't enough beds.

Surely everyone has the right to a hospital bed if they need one.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Devils_Advocate » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:49 pm

JohnDearyMe wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:45 pm
Watched that report, very sobering. We could do with reports like that on the BBC & ITV news to help get the message out.
Trouble is they are all the defund the BBC fake news idiots. Its why this country has no chance until a vaccine is found

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by JohnDearyMe » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:51 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:49 pm
Trouble is they are all the defund the BBC fake news idiots. Its why this country has no chance until a vaccine is found
Fully agree with you. Some of them even have their own newspaper columns and radio shows etc. Frightening

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Burnley1989 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:54 pm

Serious question even though I might sound dumb, why is a 2m distance important if you are wearing a mask? Isn’t it 2m without a mask? Apologies if I come across ignorant

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Trevburnley » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:01 pm

Need a vaccine and fast

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by boatshed bill » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:05 pm

Burnley1989 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:54 pm
Serious question even though I might sound dumb, why is a 2m distance important if you are wearing a mask? Isn’t it 2m without a mask? Apologies if I come across ignorant
That#s a really good question, it's just what's been put in place.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by CombatClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:11 pm

JohnDearyMe wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:51 pm
Fully agree with you. Some of them even have their own newspaper columns and radio shows etc. Frightening
Some of them are very active on this forum.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by JohnDearyMe » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:11 pm

Burnley1989 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:54 pm
Serious question even though I might sound dumb, why is a 2m distance important if you are wearing a mask? Isn’t it 2m without a mask? Apologies if I come across ignorant
I think it's because most masks, unless they are medical grade ones, won't fully stop aerosol transmission or provide you with complete protection. Stand to be corrected though

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:16 pm

JohnDearyMe wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:45 pm
Watched that report, very sobering. We could do with reports like that on the BBC & ITV news to help get the message out.

Would like to say i was shocked to see that NHS staff are getting abuse from members of the public who believe it is a hoax or being over egged but there are so many idiots out there spreading disinformation
We lock people up who aren't safe to be in the community and are a danger to the public. Anybody who thinks this is a hoax should be in a mental hospital because they have a feckin screw loose.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:45 pm

Top Claret wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:17 pm
Xmas would be perfect time for a national lockdown
I am thinking that the only lockdown I would like to see would be one in which we could vaccinate the elderly and health workers (and perhaps even more if possible). I can't see the point of keeping going in and out of lockdowns and then running into new spikes after each one.

If a vaccine becomes imminent and available in December (there are currently two possibilities of this) we could have a 'Extended Christmas Holiday Vaccination Lockdown'. Possibly this would last for three or four weeks with vaccinations starting even before the lockdown.

There are several reasons for this:
  • January is usually the worst month of the 'respiratory illness season'. A lockdown immediately before this could dampen down the spread of all respiratory diseases throughout January.
  • Vaccinating the elderly before Christmas would enable them to spend time with their families
  • Coinciding with the Holiday Period would cause less disruption to many businesses.
  • It would be tough closing pubs during this time but it would prevent casualty wards from filling up with people who have drunk themselves sick or become injured fighting. Proper financial help would need to be given to the hospitality industry if they are going to be denied their Christmas takings.
Following this, vaccinations could continue into the spring for the rest of the population.

Immediately following the 'Extended Christmas Holiday Vaccination Lockdown' I think that everything should open up again albeit with masks and social distancing. Even these could be made optional once we get into spring.

It all depends on the vaccine - whether it will be available and whether the NHS and Chemists can distribute it and roll it out.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 pm

JohnDearyMe wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:11 pm
I think it's because most masks, unless they are medical grade ones, won't fully stop aerosol transmission or provide you with complete protection. Stand to be corrected though
The following is a good talk on mask wearing and how to stay safe in general.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KANNNty9V3o

It talks about masks being a great help even if they don't stop all of the particles. The particles that get through are lower in number. It takes time for them to multiply around the receptors to the virus. In the meantime your immune system is working out how to deal with the virus. In short it buys time and enables the immune system to quash the disease earlier.

It doesn't, however, nulify the need for the other measures that need to be taken such as distancing, hygiene, diet, ventilation etc.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:05 pm

JohnDearyMe wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:11 pm
I think it's because most masks, unless they are medical grade ones, won't fully stop aerosol transmission or provide you with complete protection. Stand to be corrected though
I've always thought the general mask that most wear offers you hardly any protection, it's about protecting others from you. If you cough/sneeze the mask keeps it pretty much all on the inside of the mask, but the wearer is still breathing in the air around them.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by CombatClaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:28 pm

A very interesting video about one of the biggest bottlenecks when it comes to vaccination: distribution

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byW1GEx ... roductions

When it comes to who will get it, here's one possible breakdown I've heard:
It will be NHS staff first, vaccinate the people you need to keep other people alive and roll our the vaccine.
Then those with serious underlying health conditions such as suppressed immune systems eg: cancer etc.
Then they will likely start working down the age groups in something close to 5 year segments 100+, 100-95,95-90 etc

Each of these individual groups could take months to administer, so while vaccines for NHS staff by Christmas is great news it will take a long time to complete. But every time it makes the very vulnerable pool smaller and smaller which is good news.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Dyched » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:45 pm

Top Claret wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:17 pm
Xmas would be perfect time for a national lockdown
I think the same but on the other hand, I work in hospitality. Xmas is a major time for us, the season can easily turn around quieter years. If the industry in told to shut, huge amounts of restaurants and bars simply won’t be back. Takings over the period are 5/6x more than earlier in the year.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Dyched » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:50 pm

Spijed wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:25 pm
Won't they just go back to the procedures that we had during lockdown?
Why did that even stop anyway? It looked like from a shoppers point of view, it was far easier for staff. It was also far easier queuing in a normal sort of queue to get to the tills rather than having 7 or so queues all over the place with people trying to get past to different aisles etc.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Boss Hogg » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:56 pm

A mask wasn’t supposed to be instead of the 2 m rule. 2m lines in shops are being ignored by most unfortunately which is why I go in them as little as possible and carefully choose where. It would help if there were fewer simple rules. I’ve always worn a mask since March even when people are looking at me as though I was wierd. It was plain obvious it could add some extra protection. I still cannot understand how it’s safe to eat out and not wear one yet you can’t meet someone in a large garden.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by dsr » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:01 pm

Awayfromburnley wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:12 pm
I can only repeat what I ve said before. But now with a bit of background

1 colleague has been seriously ill with it. 38yrs old.
1 colleagues parent with hours left to live, he has it.
1 distant colleague dead from it.

That said I know about a dozen who have had it but have recovered. Some no issues, some ongoing.

There are some home truths that need to be carefully spoken, that in effect will change our world, society and our way of life. It really could destroy countries in a similar way to a civil war does. It isn't pretty at all, you cannot sugar coat it.

This disease is dangerous. We don't have a vaccine. The blasé attitude of many is amplifying the issue.

We need to accept for 2 or 3 years pubs (for example) are not an option. Yes devastating for many especially those that work in them.

Until a president or PM goes onto TV and openly says our wya of life will change, instead of the semi denial, then there will be ambiguity.

We all need to shoulder some responsibility and not mix and be care free as some are.

Yes, unfortunately the economy will tank, but economies recover. Dead people don't.

We are heading for more lockdown and yes they do work as it restricts many of the people that would otherwise spread it with their blasé attitude.

Life is having to change, it is rubbish but we have to accept it. Get used to being stuck with who you live with, or get someone to live with you.

We are in for a seriously bumpy ride.

Sorry if that is grim. It's reality. It's really that bad. I am sure I will get grief for this, but it is a fact.

Though you can help reduce the impact :

1 just wear a bloody mask it reduces your snoz sharing
2 just keep a 2m gap, only weirdos can't do that
3 stop ignoring guidance, you aren't invincible
4 if you do not believe it is real and are one of those deniers, take it from me, personally and professionally, it is absolutely real and my clinical colleagues are near to breaking.

Chin up, get on with what you can. Head down and do the time. We can and will beat this but we all have to play our part.
How bad is it going to be, though? For example, the worst case scenario that was posited at the start of the pandemic was that we would have 500,000 deaths in the UK from coronavirus. And if you assume a 1% death rate among over 16's, you would get close to that if everyone caught it.

Whereas presumably the hope with lockdown is that we can keep the deaths to 50,000 a year. 150,000 deaths over 3 years.

So given that the average number of deaths under normal conditions is 600,000 p.a., we are talking about absolute worst case scenario of 2.3m deaths from all causes in the next 3 years versus absolute best case scenario (if we hold coronavirus deaths down to 100,000) of 1.9m deaths.

But then again we know that the average age of coronavirus deaths is 82, and at that age average life expectancy is only 10 years or so; so within 3 years we would expect one sixth of those people to die anyway (from actuarial tables). So at the end of three years 70k of the 400k excess deaths would have happened anyway. We are now down 330,000. That is the baseline coronavirus excess deaths figure over 3 years.

But then we have to calculate the excess deaths that lockdown causes. It won't be insignificant. How many cancer operations have already been delayed, how many diagnoses have been missed? And crucially, when the economy as you say is tanked, it will gradually recover. But it's already in a mess, we were borrowing far too much before coronavirus started, we have borrowed shedloads more, the government's income from taxes will plummet, the government's expenditure from social security will rocket. There will have to be cutbacks. Specifically, the NHS will have less money. Perhaps 10% less? Because no doubt its budget will get extra protection ahead of other departments which will lose more.

So if we assume that what would have happened is absolute worst case scenario and what will happen with 3 years' lockdown is absolute best case scenario, we have 330,000 more people alive at the end of three years. Less, of course, the additional victims of cancer, stroke, dementia, and mental problems. And simple despair. And, of course, the number of people who are no longer able to cope because dementia has them in their grip will be higher.

But we won't have the money to spend on expensive treatments any more. It's fantasy to think that the NHS budget won't be cut. All these children with nothing to eat - there will be millions more, and that's going to cost lives. Poor countries have much lower life expectancy than rich countries. We have to look at both sides of the tale and make properly informed judgements.

Incidentally even the worst case coronavirus outcome is nowhere near the effect of a civil war. That's hyerbole.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Devils_Advocate » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:16 pm

It must be really tiring to constantly argue against a strawman you have created yourself to try and justify you own self-centred viewpoint
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Wile E Coyote » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:23 pm

there is no imminent vaccine, and the british public are useless at compliance, that is why we are in this for the long haul.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by martin_p » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:36 pm

dsr wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:01 pm
How bad is it going to be, though? For example, the worst case scenario that was posited at the start of the pandemic was that we would have 500,000 deaths in the UK from coronavirus. And if you assume a 1% death rate among over 16's, you would get close to that if everyone caught it.

Whereas presumably the hope with lockdown is that we can keep the deaths to 50,000 a year. 150,000 deaths over 3 years.

So given that the average number of deaths under normal conditions is 600,000 p.a., we are talking about absolute worst case scenario of 2.3m deaths from all causes in the next 3 years versus absolute best case scenario (if we hold coronavirus deaths down to 100,000) of 1.9m deaths.

But then again we know that the average age of coronavirus deaths is 82, and at that age average life expectancy is only 10 years or so; so within 3 years we would expect one sixth of those people to die anyway (from actuarial tables). So at the end of three years 70k of the 400k excess deaths would have happened anyway. We are now down 330,000. That is the baseline coronavirus excess deaths figure over 3 years.

But then we have to calculate the excess deaths that lockdown causes. It won't be insignificant. How many cancer operations have already been delayed, how many diagnoses have been missed? And crucially, when the economy as you say is tanked, it will gradually recover. But it's already in a mess, we were borrowing far too much before coronavirus started, we have borrowed shedloads more, the government's income from taxes will plummet, the government's expenditure from social security will rocket. There will have to be cutbacks. Specifically, the NHS will have less money. Perhaps 10% less? Because no doubt its budget will get extra protection ahead of other departments which will lose more.

So if we assume that what would have happened is absolute worst case scenario and what will happen with 3 years' lockdown is absolute best case scenario, we have 330,000 more people alive at the end of three years. Less, of course, the additional victims of cancer, stroke, dementia, and mental problems. And simple despair. And, of course, the number of people who are no longer able to cope because dementia has them in their grip will be higher.

But we won't have the money to spend on expensive treatments any more. It's fantasy to think that the NHS budget won't be cut. All these children with nothing to eat - there will be millions more, and that's going to cost lives. Poor countries have much lower life expectancy than rich countries. We have to look at both sides of the tale and make properly informed judgements.

Incidentally even the worst case coronavirus outcome is nowhere near the effect of a civil war. That's hyerbole.
What I really can’t understand in your argument is your repeated failure to acknowledge or understand that if we don’t have a lockdown the cancer operations, etc are even less likely to happen.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Awayfromburnley » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:42 pm

martin_p wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:36 pm
What I really can’t understand in your argument is your repeated failure to acknowledge or understand that if we don’t have a lockdown the cancer operations, etc are even less likely to happen.
Absolutely and this seems to go over the head of so many people.

So, to those that are against lockdowns- expect many hospitals to pause elective work very soon. This means unless a limb is hanging off it won't be a priority.

They do that because there are too many covid patients. You have to space them out, less bed space, they need staffing, the sickness rate in the NHS in the NW is 8-10%, do I need to say more?

If you lockdown then the rate of transmission falls. Its simple. Then you can do some of the elective work.

I totally get that this is financially crippling, personally and nationally, but absolutely trust me when I say--if you let this rip through society then you haven't seen anything yet.... I will elaborate if you want nightmares.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Jakubclaret » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:43 pm

Protect the NHS seems to be lost on some people, if you did nothing it would get overwhelmed more than usual.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by dsr » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:59 pm

martin_p wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:36 pm
What I really can’t understand in your argument is your repeated failure to acknowledge or understand that if we don’t have a lockdown the cancer operations, etc are even less likely to happen.
No, what you fail to understand is that I don't see the evidence that lockdowns at the stage of the virus that we are at, make much difference at all.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:14 am

dsr wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:59 pm
No, what you fail to understand is that I don't see the evidence that lockdowns at the stage of the virus that we are at, make much difference at all.
Just look at March then and the fact infections started levelling off then falling a few weeks after.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:22 am

martin_p wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:14 am
Just look at March then and the fact infections started levelling off then falling a few weeks after.
Summer weather?

Not playing devil’s advocate. Just a suggestion that this may also be part of the reason.

Be interesting to see how the Southern Hemisphere continues to pan out over the coming weeks.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by dsr » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:26 am

martin_p wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:14 am
Just look at March then and the fact infections started levelling off then falling a few weeks after.
If I stand by the sea and a wave comes towards my feet, I can say "go back" and it will. That doesn't prove I have the power over waves. The coronavirus wave was certainly going to recede whatever we did; I want to see evidence that what we did in lockdown made a significant difference. Compared to say Sweden, who did different things and their infection rate dropped like ours.

It is pretty certain that closing the schools and universities and workplaces reduced the spread of the virus, just as it's certain that opening them up again helped it spread again. But is that a reasonable suggestion? No school for 3 years?

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Spijed » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:34 am

dsr wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:01 pm
How bad is it going to be, though? For example, the worst case scenario that was posited at the start of the pandemic was that we would have 500,000 deaths in the UK from coronavirus. And if you assume a 1% death rate among over 16's, you would get close to that if everyone caught it.

Whereas presumably the hope with lockdown is that we can keep the deaths to 50,000 a year. 150,000 deaths over 3 years.

So given that the average number of deaths under normal conditions is 600,000 p.a., we are talking about absolute worst case scenario of 2.3m deaths from all causes in the next 3 years versus absolute best case scenario (if we hold coronavirus deaths down to 100,000) of 1.9m deaths.

But then again we know that the average age of coronavirus deaths is 82, and at that age average life expectancy is only 10 years or so; so within 3 years we would expect one sixth of those people to die anyway (from actuarial tables). So at the end of three years 70k of the 400k excess deaths would have happened anyway. We are now down 330,000. That is the baseline coronavirus excess deaths figure over 3 years.

But then we have to calculate the excess deaths that lockdown causes. It won't be insignificant. How many cancer operations have already been delayed, how many diagnoses have been missed? And crucially, when the economy as you say is tanked, it will gradually recover. But it's already in a mess, we were borrowing far too much before coronavirus started, we have borrowed shedloads more, the government's income from taxes will plummet, the government's expenditure from social security will rocket. There will have to be cutbacks. Specifically, the NHS will have less money. Perhaps 10% less? Because no doubt its budget will get extra protection ahead of other departments which will lose more.

So if we assume that what would have happened is absolute worst case scenario and what will happen with 3 years' lockdown is absolute best case scenario, we have 330,000 more people alive at the end of three years. Less, of course, the additional victims of cancer, stroke, dementia, and mental problems. And simple despair. And, of course, the number of people who are no longer able to cope because dementia has them in their grip will be higher.

But we won't have the money to spend on expensive treatments any more. It's fantasy to think that the NHS budget won't be cut. All these children with nothing to eat - there will be millions more, and that's going to cost lives. Poor countries have much lower life expectancy than rich countries. We have to look at both sides of the tale and make properly informed judgements.

Incidentally even the worst case coronavirus outcome is nowhere near the effect of a civil war. That's hyerbole.
But how do you stop hospitals getting overwhelmed with patients though if we don't have lockdowns. Isn't that the reason?

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by martin_p » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:43 am

dsr wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:26 am
If I stand by the sea and a wave comes towards my feet, I can say "go back" and it will. That doesn't prove I have the power over waves. The coronavirus wave was certainly going to recede whatever we did; I want to see evidence that what we did in lockdown made a significant difference. Compared to say Sweden, who did different things and their infection rate dropped like ours.

It is pretty certain that closing the schools and universities and workplaces reduced the spread of the virus, just as it's certain that opening them up again helped it spread again. But is that a reasonable suggestion? No school for 3 years?
So you’ve admitted it’s ‘pretty certain’ but still want proof?

It’s self evident that a virus transmitted through humans being in close proximity won’t have chance to take hold if humans keep away from each other.

No one has suggested a three year lock down or school’s being shut for that length of time. As ever you’ve taken one person’s suggestion that pubs may not be a good idea for a few years and applied full drama queenery. What may be needed is short lockdowns every few months to keep the numbers under control until we have an effective vaccine or treatment. I certainly feel that a two or three week lockdown now might be the only thing that saves Christmas for many this year. For me it’s better to lockdown in a similar way to how we did in the spring for a couple of weeks every now and again rather than stay in tier two or three for months on end, which is a possibility without a lockdown.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by dsr » Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:55 am

martin_p wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:43 am
So you’ve admitted it’s ‘pretty certain’ but still want proof?

It’s self evident that a virus transmitted through humans being in close proximity won’t have chance to take hold if humans keep away from each other.

No one has suggested a three year lock down or school’s being shut for that length of time. As ever you’ve taken one person’s suggestion that pubs may not be a good idea for a few years and applied full drama queenery. What may be needed is short lockdowns every few months to keep the numbers under control until we have an effective vaccine or treatment. I certainly feel that a two or three week lockdown now might be the only thing that saves Christmas for many this year. For me it’s better to lockdown in a similar way to how we did in the spring for a couple of weeks every now and again rather than stay in tier two or three for months on end, which is a possibility without a lockdown.
If the plan is for a couple of weeks now and then, that's fine. At least it is a plan. But the spring "hard" lockdown went on for 3 months, not a couple of weeks, and it included schools. And it is still going on, though not as harshly. It hasn't stopped. There have been some pretty rigid restrictions for 7 months now.

What really gets my goat is that the restrictions in all three tiers are pointless, and are vastly disproportionately punishing the old. If you have a job, you can still go to work; the loss of your social life is a nuisance but at least you still get social interaction at work. You meet people; you speak to people. If you are retired, your entire life is social life; it has been cut off in toto. You are allowed to speak face to face to one other person in your house, or to up to 5 people out of doors in the lovely weather we're having. If they won't do lockdown in a manner that does some good, there is no point doing it for the sake of saying "look at us we are doing something". The current "lockdown" rules will do no good at all. The disease will rise or fade regardless of the current rules.

Because it's not people visiting their old parents who are spreading the disease. It's the workers, the students, the schoolkids. What is the point of fiddling around at the edges of the problem, cracking down on how 10% of the disease spreads, if 90% of the problem is untouched? It's not the principle of lockdown per se, as long as it is short term and there is an exit strategy. And if they have evidence that it works. It's the way the standard procedure appears to be that we will be under lockdown forever if there is no vaccine, that really riles me. The government has no strategy.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by mkmel » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:03 am

Top Claret wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:17 pm
Xmas would be perfect time for a national lockdown
I would say that 2 weeks ago would have been a much better time for a National Lockdown and many lives would have been saved!

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by SingaporeClarets » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:42 am

Maybe the idea is to time the lockdown carefully, if we went into lockdown a few weeks ago, we might come out in another few weeks but then after a month the third wave kicks in, if they delay the lockdown then there will be a window around Christmas before the third wave happens and the lockdowns happen again. It's a stupid approach to win votes but who knows what they are thinking.

Still waiting to see a proper plan for border control, it's the only way countries have got a grip on the virus.

In Singapore the numbers are as follows over 7 days:

Locally transmitted: 7
Imported cases: 47 (quarantine in approved facility with GPS tracking for all on arrival)

That's 87% of all cases imported, quarantine is very important.

Taiwan have had a 100% importation rate for 200 days now and out of their 550 cases, only 50 were ever locally transmitted.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Granny WeatherWax » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:28 am

Wile E Coyote wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:23 pm
there is no imminent vaccine, and the british public are useless at compliance, that is why we are in this for the long haul.
I wouldnt be so sure about that.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Granny WeatherWax » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:28 am

NottsClaret wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:37 pm
What’s the difference between Tier 3 and ‘lockdown’? Is it just shutting schools.. because that’s a hugely damaging step to take again, with massive consequences on a whole generation.

Beyond that, I can’t see what else there is to do. Everyone I know who’s had it - all fine now - got it at work. Workplaces which were open during the original ‘lockdown’. So not much room there.

If we do mean closing schools and wreaking havoc on kids’ lives and prospects, let’s have the balls to say it. They’re just going to have to suffer for the benefit of the elderly. Ok, but let’s not hear again about how selfish, lazy and privileged this current crop of youngsters are, in comparison with their brave, selfless elders.. letting them take a bullet on their behalf.
Everything but schools moreorless, much akin to the first lockdown we had.

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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Boss Hogg » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:00 am

We should never have allowed pubs to open suddenly the way they did. We should have locked down borders sooner in March and we should have stuck to no overseas holidays in summer. We should have had proper checks for incoming arrivals. Small sacrifices. We could have kept schools open and kept pubs shut. People are disregarding social distancing everywhere and along with the chavs piling onto beaches and getting ****** up abroad are responsible for the lockdowns / tiers. If people don’t follow the medical and scientific advice expect a lot more of what we are seeing in terms of restrictions, lockdowns and deaths. The countries that were strict and acted fast are less affected.
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Re: Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

Post by Granny WeatherWax » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:04 am

Boss Hogg wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:00 am
We should never have allowed pubs to open suddenly the way they did. We should have locked down borders sooner in March and we should have stuck to no overseas holidays in summer. We should have had proper checks for incoming arrivals. Small sacrifices. We could have kept schools open and kept pubs shut. People are disregarding social distancing everywhere and along with the chavs piling onto beaches and getting ****** up abroad are responsible for the lockdowns / tiers. If people don’t follow the medical and scientific advice expect a lot more of what we are seeing in terms of restrictions, lockdowns and deaths. The countries that were strict and acted fast are less affected.
Yep, my brother lives in Melbourne and they have just come out of lockdown, they've had no cases in the last week or so. Their economy isnt damaged any worse than ours. Our government have royally f***** it up, hence the dire situation we find ourselves in now.

Locked