Three week total NATIONAL lockdown before it's too late?

[Grumps]

We should never have allowed pubs to open suddenly the way they did. We should have locked down borders sooner in March and we should have stuck to no overseas holidays in summer. We should have had proper checks for incoming arrivals. Small sacrifices. We could have kept schools open and kept pubs shut. People are disregarding social distancing everywhere and along with the chavs piling onto beaches and getting ****** up abroad are responsible for the lockdowns / tiers. If people don’t follow the medical and scientific advice expect a lot more of what we are seeing in terms of restrictions, lockdowns and deaths. The countries that were strict and acted fast are less affected.

I haven't seen it reported anywhere that those on the beaches, or returning summer holidaymakers have been responsible for the rise. Neither have I seen it reported mass gatherings be it blm marches, or illegal raves being responsible. How many people in Blackburn or rossendale have attended such events?

[Boss Hogg]

People that have taken an overseas holiday will try and justify it. The spike in Bolton and subsequent restrictions are largely on account of one selfish idiot going on a bender abroad and going straight out around town afterwards. At least he had some fun. I wonder how the business owners and hospital staff in Bolton feel about this ( let alone the people he passed it on to). There’s plenty of stories of plane loads having to quarantine ( after they’ve been wandering around communities).

[Grumps]

People that have taken an overseas holiday will try and justify it. The spike in Bolton and subsequent restrictions are largely on account of one selfish idiot going on a bender abroad and going straight out around town afterwards. At least he had some fun. I wonder how the business owners and hospital staff in Bolton feel about this ( let alone the people he passed it on to). There’s plenty of stories of plane loads having to quarantine ( after they’ve been wandering around communities).

You obviously read more than I do.

[CombatClaret]

Eat Out To Help out
Research suggests that between 8% and 17% of newly detected infection clusters can be linked to the scheme.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... sf-twitter

Full report. https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics ... 7.2020.pdf

Even first paragraph is just... wow.

Areas with higher take-up saw both, a notable increase in new COVID19 infection clusters within a week of the scheme starting, and again, a deceleration in infections within two weeks of the program ending. Areas that exhibit
notable rainfall during the prime lunch and dinner hours on days the scheme was active record lower infection incidence – a pattern that is also measurable in mobility data – and non-detectable on days during which the discount was not available or for rainfall outside the core lunch and dinner hours

[Grumps]

R rate is down again this week...

[FactualFrank]

R rate is down again this week...

What is it down to? I read it's about 2.1 in the South, with London near 3.

[Grumps]

What is it down to? I read it's about 2.1 in the South, with London near 3.

1.1 to 1.3

[FactualFrank]

1.1 to 1.3

Difficult to know how accurate these figures are.

From the Mirror...

The analysis from Imperial College London yesterday estimated the ‘R’ was closer to 1.56 nationally, and 2.86 in London.

Imperial's scientists estimated the R number was above 2 in London, the South East, East of England and South West, despite none of those areas being in Tier 3.

[Grumps]

Difficult to know how accurate these figures are.

From the Mirror...

The analysis from Imperial College London yesterday estimated the ‘R’ was closer to 1.56 nationally, and 2.86 in London.

Imperial's scientists estimated the R number was above 2 in London, the South East, East of England and South West, despite none of those areas being in Tier 3.

Official figs as per sky news

[Inchy]

Watched that report, very sobering. We could do with reports like that on the BBC & ITV news to help get the message out.

Would like to say i was shocked to see that NHS staff are getting abuse from members of the public who believe it is a hoax or being over egged but there are so many idiots out there spreading disinformation

As someone who works in intensive care, let me tell you that the abuse NHS staff are getting online is really upsetting/ frustrating.

I have read some awful stuff on social media. It’s gone from clapping us to suggesting we are lying. Even up to the point where some are suggesting we are killing people.

Personally I’m trying to remind myself that this is the product of an underfunded education system and you can’t argue with an idiot. I do know that this is upsetting many of my colleagues.

Working 12.5 hours in full FFP3 PPE is hard work. No one in the NHS is enjoying this. Hundreds of NHS staff have died.

[ClaretAndJew]

As someone who works in intensive care, let me tell you that the abuse NHS staff are getting online is really upsetting/ frustrating.

I have read some awful stuff on social media. It’s gone from clapping us to suggesting we are lying. Even up to the point where some are suggesting we are killing people.

Personally I’m trying to remind myself that this is the product of an underfunded education system and you can’t argue with an idiot. I do know that this is upsetting many of my colleagues.

Working 12.5 hours in full FFP3 PPE is hard work. No one in the NHS is enjoying this. Hundreds of NHS staff have died.

Thank you for doing what you're doing Inchy.

I'm in my final year of Speech & Language Therapy and have been a few times over to Calderdale to help them out with videofluoroscopies and only have to wear the PPE for at most 5 hours so I really feel for you doing it for 12+. And people complain at having to wear them in shops, it's really baffling.

You can't argue with idiots, you're right.

Hopefully the ones shouting loudest are also few and far between.

[CombatClaret]

R rate is down again this week...

This is the national average and looks to be fueled by a slight reduction in the areas under Teir 3 restrictions. Still not getting R under 1 yet but slowing it down.
So now we have a decent indication Tier 3 is the minimum we need to slow this thing down, SAGE and other groups echoed this, saying it needed to go futher than T3 to actually reverse the spread. It begs the question what are the government waiting for in T1 & T2 areas with rising cases? They're literally waiting for hospital beds and morgues to fill up (pilling even more pressure on people like Ichy) before they flip the switch, it's sociopathic behavior.

[dsr]

If they shared your absolute certainty about what should be done for the best overall long term outcome, then perhaps it would be sociopathic. As it is, all you should really accuse them of is not having the wisdom to do what you want them to.

[CombatClaret]

Coronavirus: Second wave death toll set to exceed worst-case scenario, Sage warns

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 51614.html

The number of deaths caused by coronavirus is likely to exceed the government’s worst-case scenario predictions with ministers being told the second wave is too far advanced now for a short circuit-breaker lockdown to stop it.

[Lowbankclaret]

As someone who works in intensive care, let me tell you that the abuse NHS staff are getting online is really upsetting/ frustrating.

I have read some awful stuff on social media. It’s gone from clapping us to suggesting we are lying. Even up to the point where some are suggesting we are killing people.

Personally I’m trying to remind myself that this is the product of an underfunded education system and you can’t argue with an idiot. I do know that this is upsetting many of my colleagues.

Working 12.5 hours in full FFP3 PPE is hard work. No one in the NHS is enjoying this. Hundreds of NHS staff have died.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/20 ... r5Iq4rNQMQ


Hope this link works

[Pimlico_Claret]

2 pubs in Blackburn issued with £1000 fines for serving beer without a meal. Meanwhile, huge protest outside French Embassy in London today, no social distancing, very few masks,no fines being issued. The longer this perceived North/South imbalance persists, the harder it will be to implement further lockdowns.

[Grumps]

2 pubs in Blackburn issued with £1000 fines for serving beer without a meal. Meanwhile, huge protest outside French Embassy in London today, no social distancing, very few masks,no fines being issued. The longer this perceived North/South imbalance persists, the harder it will be to implement further lockdowns.

You missed out the 2 takeaways in Blackburn fined for serving after 10pm.

[HahaYeah]

As someone who works in intensive care, let me tell you that the abuse NHS staff are getting online is really upsetting/ frustrating.

I have read some awful stuff on social media. It’s gone from clapping us to suggesting we are lying. Even up to the point where some are suggesting we are killing people.

Personally I’m trying to remind myself that this is the product of an underfunded education system and you can’t argue with an idiot. I do know that this is upsetting many of my colleagues.

Working 12.5 hours in full FFP3 PPE is hard work. No one in the NHS is enjoying this. Hundreds of NHS staff have died.

That's terrible.

Perhaps more tik tok videos would get the public back onside of the NHS workers.

Just a suggestion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BM9PRY82zng

[TheFamilyCat]

Coronavirus: Second wave death toll set to exceed worst-case scenario, Sage warns

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 51614.html

The number of deaths caused by coronavirus is likely to exceed the government’s worst-case scenario predictions with ministers being told the second wave is too far advanced now for a short circuit-breaker lockdown to stop it.

Probably time to shut Sage down and set new committee up with Dido Harding in charge.

[Espia]

Of course a subjective personal experience of covid is going to form your wider outlook- why wouldn't it. But as the stats show this is not the black death, the plague or a "tag your it" situation. The fact is that the recovery rate is well into the high 90's percent. Cold comfort for those that don't recover from it I know, but that's how it is ...for now. So that fact, no matter how someone directly emotionally feels about it, has to be rationalised, before some draconian measure is taken that causes even more harm. Harm that won't necessarily make the alarming 10 o'clock news.

[Sozturf7]

No thank you.

[ClaretCraig]

https://youtu.be/Jj6xddWmKpo
Blackburn hospital as of today.

[Boss Hogg]

Eat Out To Help out
Research suggests that between 8% and 17% of newly detected infection clusters can be linked to the scheme.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... sf-twitter

Full report. https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics ... 7.2020.pdf

Even first paragraph is just... wow.

Areas with higher take-up saw both, a notable increase in new COVID19 infection clusters within a week of the scheme starting, and again, a deceleration in infections within two weeks of the program ending. Areas that exhibit
notable rainfall during the prime lunch and dinner hours on days the scheme was active record lower infection incidence – a pattern that is also measurable in mobility data – and non-detectable on days during which the discount was not available or for rainfall outside the core lunch and dinner hours

Exactly why I didn’t take ‘advantage’ of it. If it’s not safe to not wear a mask in a shop it’s not safe to sit in a restaurant without one particularly when you will be sat there for longer. We will never know how another government would have handled this virus as it was unprecedented but some of the responses and contradictions dont half look amateur in hindsight.

[Inchy]

That's terrible.

Perhaps more tik tok videos would get the public back onside of the NHS workers.

Just a suggestion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BM9PRY82zng

I assume you are taking the pi55 here.


I was totally against the stupid tiktok videos. They were mainly done before the virus had even hit us properly. A minority of nurses acting like heroes when they had done nothing at that point. I knew fine well it wasn’t appropriate and it would be used as a stick to hit nurses with In the up coming months

[ClaretCraig]

Of course a subjective personal experience of covid is going to form your wider outlook- why wouldn't it. But as the stats show this is not the black death, the plague or a "tag your it" situation. The fact is that the recovery rate is well into the high 90's percent. Cold comfort for those that don't recover from it I know, but that's how it is ...for now. So that fact, no matter how someone directly emotionally feels about it, has to be rationalised, before some draconian measure is taken that causes even more harm. Harm that won't necessarily make the alarming 10 o'clock news.

If only it was about the recovery rate. It's about the NHS being overwhelmed. It's not just our healthcare system that cant cope, it's the same in Europe. France has just gone into a national lockdown. It's about the amount of people who get seriously Ill and need hospital treatment. Then the knock on effect because of the overstretched healthcare system. My stepsons transplant surgery is on hold because of covid for example. Noone knows the solution really other than the hope for a vaccine.

[tiger76]

As someone who works in intensive care, let me tell you that the abuse NHS staff are getting online is really upsetting/ frustrating.

I have read some awful stuff on social media. It’s gone from clapping us to suggesting we are lying. Even up to the point where some are suggesting we are killing people.

Personally I’m trying to remind myself that this is the product of an underfunded education system and you can’t argue with an idiot. I do know that this is upsetting many of my colleagues.

Working 12.5 hours in full FFP3 PPE is hard work. No one in the NHS is enjoying this. Hundreds of NHS staff have died.

That's appalling Inchy why on earth would anybody think that NHS staff would lie or be killing people, the NHS frontline staff have worked tirelessly throughout this pandemic, and many have put themselves in danger, and sadly some have paid the ultimate price, thankfully it's likely to only be a handful of cranks, I know that it'll still be upsetting for you and your colleagues, but rest assured the vast majority of the public are fully behind yourself and your colleagues, and we do appreciate the sacrifices your making, and we are prepared to tolerate some minor inconveniences to our lifestyle if it helps keep this virus in check, and enables the NHS to function effectively, as a covid and non-covid healthcare provider.

[whentheballmoves]

Inchy, I feel for you mate, I really do.
Working in a school has been stressful as hell, and far from safe, I'm sure...but nothing compared to what you seem to be enduring.
Stay strong, and make the most of your non-work time.

[cricketfieldclarets]

As someone who works in intensive care, let me tell you that the abuse NHS staff are getting online is really upsetting/ frustrating.

I have read some awful stuff on social media. It’s gone from clapping us to suggesting we are lying. Even up to the point where some are suggesting we are killing people.

Personally I’m trying to remind myself that this is the product of an underfunded education system and you can’t argue with an idiot. I do know that this is upsetting many of my colleagues.

Working 12.5 hours in full FFP3 PPE is hard work. No one in the NHS is enjoying this. Hundreds of NHS staff have died.

The vast majority of us are truly grateful for the efforts, risks and sacrifices you make. Keep up the amazing work. But equally don’t let it or the negativity grind you down.

God bless.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

New national lockdown from Wednesday leaked to the press once again.

[cricketfieldclarets]

New national lockdown from Wednesday leaked to the press once again.

Another reason NOBODY trusts anything.

They don’t even have a team they can trust. How on earth does this stuff get out?

It’s either

A - purposely leaked in this way to soften the blow when it happens
Or more likely
B - they are surrounded by unreliable team members which is arguably worse.

[cricketfieldclarets]

What I don’t get about all this is how much focus there is on saving Christmas.

I love Christmas. And kids and families all do. But the reality is it’s one day of the year.

Are we really managing lockdowns and strategies based on Christmas Day?

It’s absolute insanity whatever your view on lockdown.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

They were calling Starmer ‘a shameless opportunist’ three weeks ago for suggesting a new lockdown. All just a big game to them.

[boatshed bill]

What I don’t get about all this is how much focus there is on saving Christmas.

I love Christmas. And kids and families all do. But the reality is it’s one day of the year.

Are we really managing lockdowns and strategies based on Christmas Day?

It’s absolute insanity whatever your view on lockdown.

they are not saving Xmas, they are trying to help profits. it should be possible to celebrate Christmas with your immediate family,

[dsr]

What I don’t get about all this is how much focus there is on saving Christmas.

I love Christmas. And kids and families all do. But the reality is it’s one day of the year.

Are we really managing lockdowns and strategies based on Christmas Day?

It’s absolute insanity whatever your view on lockdown.

I think a lot of it is that old people have been told for 7 months that they haven't to receive visitors, that their entire social life has been cancelled, and that it might go on for a year or two yet - but we'll make sure Christmas is all right. They have something to look forward to. What effect will it have on the old if the only bright spot of the year is cancelled? (And yes, martin, I realise they can arrange to have dinner with another lonely old person. Not the same as a family Christmas, though.)

[Bordeauxclaret]

Everyone knew this was coming weeks ago.


Yet again they waited too late.

[Burnleyareback2]

Christmas is just a day, I get that. But it’s a symbol or a token- the end of a year and a time that friends and family get together.

As DSR said, many parents and grandparents etc look forward to this one time of the year when the family comes home and are re-United. 7 months of isolation is one thing but they have all had the hope of the annual tradition. Buying a turkey for 1 or 2 signals another year gone in the worst possible way.

[Burnley1989]

My mother’s a senior nurse in a local hospital and said the majority of the Covid patients are middle aged over weight males with high blood pressure (Unfortunately race does play a part), NOT old folk. Elderly patients are catching it whilst in hospital fighting their own battles, time to wake up again everyone

[Burnley1989]

I’ve been fed up with Covid and lockdown but in the grand scheme of things, the things like

Annual holiday
Christmas
Halloween
Etc

Get real people, it’s one ******* year, I hope you look back in 5 years and regret your decisions

[burnleymik]

Looks to me like London figures have been suppressed for a while now, meanwhile Northern Towns like Burnley have been suffering heavily. 3-4 more weeks of this and you have to wonder what will be left to "build back better" from....

[dsr]

I’ve been fed up with Covid and lockdown but in the grand scheme of things, the things like

Annual holiday
Christmas
Halloween
Etc

Get real people, it’s one ******* year, I hope you look back in 5 years and regret your decisions

I hope the last sentence is somehow a misprint.

This is what I am banging on about. Can you tell the over 80's that they should look back in five years at what has gone on?

And when you say it is one year, does that mean it's a guarantee of back to normal by March? I suspect it might be over a year before we're back to normal. If ever, because once fear of death becomes the government's main driver of policy, there may be a lot of other changes - or at least, refusals to change back to how we were.

[Dyched]

What I don’t get about all this is how much focus there is on saving Christmas.

I love Christmas. And kids and families all do. But the reality is it’s one day of the year.

Are we really managing lockdowns and strategies based on Christmas Day?

It’s absolute insanity whatever your view on lockdown.

Christmas is majorly important for hospitality. If we’re locked down at Christmas at least 50% of restaurants won’t reopen. It’s that crucial in the industry. December can turn around very poor years for restaurants. That one month pays the bills.

[ksrclaret]

Has been inevitable for a few weeks now. Good luck everyone. I dread to think what'll be left another lockdown.

[Billy Balfour]

They'll spin this as Boris Save Christmas.

[Burnley1989]

I’m not even going to argue it! I’m my grandads main career at 84 , I’m the only people that sees him every day, I’ve stopped seeing anybody else for that reason, even he understands.

It’s **** mate, it really is, but it’s also made me realise how selfish my friends are

[Bin Ont Turf]

It’s **** mate, it really is, but it’s also made me realise how selfish my friends are

It's like I said months ago, if younger folk were dying in their droves there'd be a different thought process to the whole thing.

[ksrclaret]

I admire the sentiment that this could potentially "save Christmas", but I think we all know deep down that once we're in another lockdown, there'll be no prospect of it easing anytime soon.

[SonofPog]

Its clear to a blind man on a horse that kids going back to school, students travelling all over to uni, people meeting in pubs and the all round general activity that comes with opening up the economy again was going to increase the R rate. As it was barely below 1 anyway, a 2nd wave was a certainty.

As a vaccine is a ways away, the only way I can foresee is to have pre-planned national full lockdowns, regardless of the R rate. Tie these in with school half terms. Business can plan ahead. Heck we can even get all our x-mas shopping done in between.

And when its not lockdown... lets try and get back to some semblance of normality, fans back in grounds, theaters open etc.

[Vintage Claret]

Inchy, please don't let the minority of idiots grind you down.

The majority appreciate the great work that you and all your colleagues are doing every day (my wife works for the NHS albeit not in a medical capacity and I see how overworked and stressed she is at the end of every day,) so God knows what it must be like for those of you on 'the front line'

[Devils_Advocate]

I admire the sentiment that this could potentially "save Christmas", but I think we all know deep down that once we're in another lockdown, there'll be no prospect of it easing anytime soon.

Genuine serious question (we've had a few exchanges but im not trying to pick a fight) what would be your strategy to try and live with this virus until either a vaccine is found or something else (herd immunity, t cells, mutation etc) defeats it?

Im not expecting you to be detailed and specific (just a high level general view) and im not looking to try and contradict and poke holes in anything you say but really just trying to understand if we dont lock down whats the plan, what are the rules and what do we hope to see as an outcome

[CombatClaret]

Government ignored the SAGE advice of a two week lockdown over October half term, so will now have to implement a four week lockdown throughout all of November.
When will this government learn.