Will we stay up

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tiger76
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Will we stay up

Post by tiger76 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:10 am

As it says on the tin, will we survive or not, a quick straw poll as it's approaching a 1/4 of a way through the season, I say we will but it'll be by the skin of our teeth, and we'll need to dig out a few battling 1-0 wins to ensure another season at the top table.

Anyone willing to put their cards on the table and predict if we'll stay above the bottom 3, and your reasons for this hunch.

RammyClaret61
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by RammyClaret61 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:34 am

To early to call. Until it’s mathematically impossible for us to stay up, I’ll say we will. UTC

firstclaret
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by firstclaret » Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:03 am

Not a hope in hell

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Steve-Harpers-perm » Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:22 am

I think the continued long drawn out off the pitch uncertainty will end up having a negative impact on our season.
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by evensteadiereddie » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:07 am

I think we'll grind our way up to half way up the table by January. We're solid enough now to turn the defeats into draws and the odd draws into wins.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:26 am

I think it might go down to the last game. I don’t think we’ll be cut adrift.

We are clearly in trouble though, the negative vibes throughout the club have been there for all to see.

MACCA
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by MACCA » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:27 am

In my opinion, sadly not.

I can only see us picking up a maximum 8 points from the next 8 games and that is being quite generous, especially on current form.
The following games takes us to the new year and more importantly the next transfer window.

C Palace H
Man City A
Everton H
Arsenal A
A Villa A
Wolves H
Leeds A
Sheff Utd H

I'm struggling to see where the 13 points needed to get on an even ish keel come from.
Even if we get those 8, which would be a very good return from those fixtures, that leaves us on 10 points from 15 games, which isnt enough and will leave us an absolute mountain to climb in 2021.

That's also basing it on the season being completed, if at any stage it's not or they do an average points type thing, we will go down.
We are well behind the curve, and it's always harder chasing, which with everything else going on at the club, will only add more pressure onto the manager and team.

It's a sad state of affairs when your relying on investment from people you know nothing about to save your season.

Remember the motto, one club for one!

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by TVC15 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:56 am

Think I’m with you Macca on this one.
I don’t see where the points are coming from and whilst we are far from done I think there are just too many things against us to turn it round this season.

Our threadbare squad and reliance on key players has come back to bite us this year. Not having Ben Mee has cost us massively and even bigger than that is the deterioration in Dwight’s form which has been alarming. The lack of creative options on the pitch without Dwight is there for all to see and it’s hard to pin your hopes on Brady and JBG with their injury and form record in the last couple of years.

But on the plus side we do have Mee back and we still have a very strong back 4 and keeper - stronger than many sides in this league.
Our strikers are yet to get going but they have all shown that they can score in this league so hopefully they will start soon.
And Dwight has not turned into a bad player overnight and if he can find his confidence soon it can turn round quickly.

And most of all we have SD - who gets written off by some people nearly every year and every year he proves them wrong.

So yep I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t very worried but would not be surprised if we turned it around either.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Rileybobs » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:07 am

I’m 50/50 at the minute. We’ve had a very poor start and I agree that as things stand it’s hard to see where the points will come from. But equally, at times last season it was hard to see where this group of players would lose games, so I retain some faith that they can turn it around.

It’s equally hard to see where Fulham, W Brom and Sheff Utd are going to pick up points at the moment as well, and the reality is we just have to finish above them.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:25 am

Yes but it's gonna be close.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Boss Hogg » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:28 am

Not if we continue playing like we have been. Lumping it up to Barnes and Wood and making no or too late subs when it’s not working isnt really cutting it anymore. We don’t surprise teams and need pace somewhere on the pitch.
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Quickenthetempo » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:38 am

We have to win games at a rate of 1 every 3 now as well as 5 or 6 draws thrown in.

That sort of form all season would get you a 10th to 8th place finish.

It doesn't help that Villa and West Ham have improved from last season but we could target Newcastle, Brighton and maybe Leeds if they explode. I will be surprised if Sheff United don't turn it around.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by FactualFrank » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:46 am

The way I see it currently, is we need to aim to be on as many points as games played, minimum. This means 7 points. So if you use that as a benchmark, we're currently playing catch up as the games played line is ahead of use in the race by 5 points.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Goddy » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:49 am

I think we will stay up but that's because there'll be three worse teams (WBA, Fulham and I hope, Sheff U). I have a feeling there'll be a big gap between the bottom four and the rest with a low number of points needed for 4th bottom (maybe as low as 34).

Those that think we might end up mid-table (potentially), I hope you're right but I can't see it

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Rileybobs » Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:53 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:38 am
We have to win games at a rate of 1 every 3 now as well as 5 or 6 draws thrown in.

That sort of form all season would get you a 10th to 8th place finish.

It doesn't help that Villa and West Ham have improved from last season but we could target Newcastle, Brighton and maybe Leeds if they explode. I will be surprised if Sheff United don't turn it around.
Not quite true. If we win 1 in 3 of our remaining games we should only require a 2 draws. 35 points has been enough for survival each season since we last got promoted to this level. 9 wins and 6 draws will probably be enough, or 10 wins and 3 draws.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by warksclaret » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:00 am

Sadly for me there is an acceptance inside me that we will probably go down. I can only liken it to a member of your family being seriously ill, and whilst you wish they would recover , the end is only a matter of time. I look around the Division, analysing every other team, to see how many will finish below us. In the past all 3 promoted teams, plus Newcastle, WHU, Palace, Saints, Brighton, Villa, would be the teams likely to be below us. However I can only see us finishing above WBA, Fulham, and possibly Brighton if they have a bad season.

Brighton for me are the critical team. I have to say Brighton are a good footballing team and their Chairman will go big in the next window should they be drifting. I fear we could go down unless a takeover allows us to buy some match winners and make some stellar signings in January.

My prediction is there is no take over, we spend no money in January, possibly lose one key player because they dont want to get relegated and it affect their international aspirations. and get relegated with the LOWEST GOALS AGAINST in PL history, supported with a very low GOALS SCORED

I am generally half full person, but our behavior as a business since June will only lead to our downfall, and we will only have ourselves to blame
Last edited by warksclaret on Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Quickenthetempo
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Quickenthetempo » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:10 am

The good news is I have just seen Andy Jones of the Athletic post analysis on twitter. He says we are still creating 6.1 chances a games like normal. It's just the forwards missing them.

boyyanno
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by boyyanno » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:20 am

I think we're doomed this year unfortunately.

I just don't see where 10 wins are going to come from.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by warksclaret » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:23 am

Sadly for me there is an acceptance inside me that we will probably go down. I can only liken it to a member of your family being seriously in, and whilst you wish they would recover , the end is only a matter of time. I look around the Division, analysing every other team, to see how many will finish below us. In the past all 3 promoted teams, plus Newcastle, WHU, Palace, Saints, Brighton, Villa, would be the teams likely to be below us. However I can only see us finishing above WBA, Fulham, and possibly Brighton if they have a bad season.

Brighton for me are the critical team. I have to say Brighton are a good footballing team and their Chairman will go big in the next window should they be drifting. I fear we could go down unless a takeover allows us to buy some match winners and make some stellar signings in January.

My prediction is there is no take over, we spend no money in January, possibly lose one key player because they dont want to get relegated and it affect their international aspirations. and get relegated with the LOWEST GOALS AGAINST in PL history, supported with a very low GOALS SCORED

I am generally half full person, but our behavior as a business since June will only lead to our downfall, and we will only have ourselves to blame

CFS
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by CFS » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:33 am

We were down from last season when dyche thought it was clever crying it in to the media because that was the start of all this.
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Spijed » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:35 am

Sheff United have 1 point in 8 games yet they are suddenly going to go on a winning streak according to some on here.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Dark Cloud » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:47 am

No. A season too far for us, unfortunately.

aggi
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by aggi » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:55 am

I'm still strangely confident for some reason. We've always been a streaky team under Dyche and, with the defence slowly getting back to its best, I can foresee a run of tight victories at some point.

It's not like we've been cut adrift, win our game in hand and we're out of the relegation zone, but it will be tight.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by aggi » Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:06 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:10 am
The good news is I have just seen Andy Jones of the Athletic post analysis on twitter. He says we are still creating 6.1 chances a games like normal. It's just the forwards missing them.
The full article isn't quite as positive, a brief extract:

Last season, they ranked seventh in big chances with 78. They have only mustered six of them this season in their opening seven games, or 0.85 big chances per game compared to 2.1 last season — another significant decline.

That is also represented in Burnley’s xG from shots on target. As well as having the lowest number of shots on target in the league, the quality of shots attempted has not been as good. Their xG from shots on target has dropped from 1.01 to 0.44, indicating they are not creating clear enough opportunities or the efforts on goal have not been clinical.

Looking closer at the xG as a whole, it is a combination of both open play and set pieces where Burnley’s problems lie. Their xG from open play this season is 0.47 per game, down from 0.73 last time. The xG from set pieces has dropped from 0.43 to 0.26

Ric_C
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Ric_C » Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:18 am

Biggest issue is that these teams have all vastly improved or strengthened since last season:

Southampton
West Ham
Everton
Villa
Newcastle

Add to that Leeds coming up and splashing the cash, it's hard to actually find 3 teams who we can realistically finish above.

The only crumb of comfort is that two of the potentials in Brighton and Newcastle, we have already played away and got points off. That is the only positive so far.

Now that Ben is back though, I'm a lot more positive in general, but we need to get a few wins from somewhere to get us back to having a chance.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Top Claret » Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:24 am

It is going to be a long hard slog.

If we can keep our small squad fit, with the experience we have, we should just about have enough in our tank.

Our experience at this level will give us the upper hand over the likes of Sheffield United, West Brom, Fulham and Leeds, who have no experience of a premier league dog fight

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by claptrappers_union » Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:29 am

Unless we go on one of those 'Burnley runs' - there's no evidence to suggest we will win enough games.

Against Spurs, we showed some promise but the performances against teams we should be looking to get points from such as Newcastle, West Brom and Brighton - we played very poorly against.

Hopefully, we can pick up enough points to give us a chance by January and takeover will hopefully be sorted - as it's clear, the Chairman doesn't want to spend any more money. It's not going to be pretty this season though...

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by MACCA » Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:39 am

Ric_C wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:18 am
The only crumb of comfort is that two of the potentials in Brighton and Newcastle, we have already played away and got points off. That is the only positive so far.

Now that Ben is back though, I'm a lot more positive in general, but we need to get a few wins from somewhere to get us back to having a chance.
we got beat quite easily 3-1 at Bewcastle, where they didnt get out of 2bd gear, and we created nothing.

Regards your last point, its great to have Mee back, it will certainly help, however the problem lies in the final 3rd.
We havent scored in the last 4 games, 5 in the 7 so far this season, and in truth you can probably count on 1 hand our genuine attempts at goal that could/should maybe have resulted in us scoring.

I just hope in the next game we see Jay start, as we play and look far better with him in the side.
We certainly cant wait for after boxing day to kickstarter our season this season.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Mala591 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:39 am

Imo it depends on the fitness and form of JBG. If he stays fit and finds some of his old creative form I think we will just about survive.

Garlick and Dyche have not recruited any 'quality' competition/cover at right half back and we could pay very dearly if JBG gets injured again.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by warksclaret » Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:39 pm

Whilst Ben coming back will reduce the GOALS AGAINST it does not guarrantee us wins. Fans are pinning a lot of hope on Ben. People are also blaming our forwards but how many times in 7 games have we split the opposition defense either through a killer pass or someone going down the touchline and whipping a cross in. We only have two tactics-either a knock down by one of the front two, or the opposition dropping a clanger in their own box..Even our free kicks and corners have deteriorated whereas last year we were acknowledged as one of the best

Brighton are one of the teams its conceivable could finish below us-but then look at the huge amount of chances they created against us going down the touch line with Lampety involved in many. There will be many teams concede from this pressure

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Quicknick » Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:44 pm

Yes.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Jakubs Tash » Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:46 pm

I remember some posters on here looking at the remaining fixtures after the Villa game on NYD and wondering where the points would come from too.

As already mentioned above, a good barometer is a point per game and as things stand we are currently a bit behind the curve on this. However, that's what we need to concentrate on - not worry about other teams and how they are playing. It will be tight but I think we can do it....again.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by JohnDearyMe » Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:11 pm

I think it would be Dyche's finest achievement (amongst many) if he manages to keep us up this season. I'm very pessimistic at the moment

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Napoleon » Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:36 pm

For me, the Newcastle result was poor although nothing much to worry about bearing in mind who we have played and we now have Mee back. If we stop conceding it will reduce the pressure on the team and hopefully they will start creating better chances.
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by NewClaret » Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:47 pm

Too early for this thread!4 of the 7 games have been against the top 5. Of the other 3 we have drawn two, lost one. The loss being before we got Mee back. Ten reasons to be positive are:

1. Mee has returned.
2. Pope looked back to his best form at the Amex.
3. JBG and Cork are close to returning.
4. Brownhill looks an upgrade on Hendrick.
5. We now have four fit strikers - irrespective of your preferences of first choice, that's something we couldn't say for most of last year.
6. If 1-5 are true, we are close to having a stronger squad than last year when we stayed up with relative ease.
7. We are hopefully close to a takeover which would presumably see more investment.
8. With the international window, January is only 5-6 weeks away.
9. CEO seemed confident we'll see more movement in this window. We have heard that before and why that would be true of January and not summer I have no idea (unless linked to 7) but it offers some hope that we'll get a boost at a key point in the season.
10. We have an experienced manager who has brought us through these tough periods before.

I'm as concerned as everyone and think we've found ourselves in a precarious situation but there remain reasons to be hopeful. Will certainly take 17th and an opportunity to strengthen in January and summer though.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:58 pm

We should have had a penalty (and a point) against Saints. (Burnley don't get penalties)

We should have had a point against Spurs (Kane saving them on the line).

I am always hopeful but, it's going to be tough.

Onwards and upwards... U T C !!!

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Ric_C » Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:21 pm

MACCA wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:39 am
we got beat quite easily 3-1 at Bewcastle, where they didnt get out of 2bd gear, and we created nothing.

Regards your last point, its great to have Mee back, it will certainly help, however the problem lies in the final 3rd.
We havent scored in the last 4 games, 5 in the 7 so far this season, and in truth you can probably count on 1 hand our genuine attempts at goal that could/should maybe have resulted in us scoring.

I just hope in the next game we see Jay start, as we play and look far better with him in the side.
We certainly cant wait for after boxing day to kickstarter our season this season.
Yeah sorry, I meant West Brom. Not sure why I said Newcastle

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by jrgbfc » Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:27 pm

I think we'll just about do enough. Sure as hell won't be pretty though.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by DAVETHEVICAR » Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:40 pm

Yes

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Winstonswhite » Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:55 pm

I think if Barnes is dropped to the bench and Dwights form picks up then there’s nothing stopping us picking up the points needed.

We should not be relying on a 20 year old who cost us nothing to keep us up though.

Elizabeth
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Elizabeth » Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:55 pm

If we are judging sides on the first 7/8 games then we have enough to stay up. I'm not going to sit on the fence like some and say we might go down but then we might stay up.
Used to work with people like that who when the final outcome was known they'd say they were right whatever the outcome.
I hope we are going through what will turn out to be the most testing part of the season.
Enough worse sides than us, and enough proven firepower to get the necessary goals we will need to score.
Just for the record I believe Cardiff were in the top 10 for clean sheets when they were relegated.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Vegas Claret » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:10 pm

not if we persist with Barnes and Wood
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Elizabeth
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Elizabeth » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:17 pm

But we won't Vegas. Jay has had an injury otherwise I'm sure he would have featured before now.
Yes, Dyche seems somewhat reluctant to play Vydra more but this player has shown that if given a chance he can score and create scoring chances at this level.
I look at other teams down there and can't see many, if any, of them with the striking options we have

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Top Claret » Wed Nov 11, 2020 7:28 pm

We hear the same old every season in where are the points going to come from after a poor run of form, but we manage to survive and I can see this season being no different.

The manager and our small squad have the experience and this will pull us through
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by leelad » Thu Nov 12, 2020 6:25 am

One game at a time for me.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by KateR » Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:58 pm

Seen us go on losing streaks longer than this and come out with our own winning streak, don't see anything materially different this time.

For me now Ben is back we will see a change, maybe not immediately but we will improve and go on a number of games unbeaten, maybe a few 3/4/5 games in between defeats to the top teams but I believe we will survive comfortably.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by jurek » Thu Nov 12, 2020 11:15 pm

On present form you'd have to think it's highly unlikely
that we can stay up.
But things could change and that's what we're all hoping for.

Even if it does will it be enough?
Even if we get new owners, sell Tarks and bring in a few (say 3 or 4) new faces
then it's still likely to be a tall order.

The dilemma might centre around who these new faces might be and will they
be able to make a significant impact?
Seasoned premiership pro's with a point to prove or keen and hungry youngsters?
Are there enough of them around during the January window?
Will there be sufficient funds available to get them in??
Will we act quickly enough?

We're probably talking 30-40m? Possibly more.
We'd have to box extremely clever to pull it off?
Whichever, they'd have to settle in pretty damn quickly.

It get's taller and taller when you start thinking about it.

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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:40 am

Top Claret wrote:
Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:24 am
It is going to be a long hard slog.

If we can keep our small squad fit, with the experience we have, we should just about have enough in our tank.

Our experience at this level will give us the upper hand over the likes of Sheffield United, West Brom, Fulham and Leeds, who have no experience of a premier league dog fight
I’d separate Leeds from that but the rest are contenders I’d also include Brighton in that, I agree with that summary, I think there just need some confidence & it’ll come at some stage it’s as sure as eggs.

Quicknick
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by Quicknick » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:27 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:40 am
I’d separate Leeds from that but the rest are contenders I’d also include Brighton in that, I agree with that summary, I think there just need some confidence & it’ll come at some stage it’s as sure as eggs.
I'd definitely include Leeds.

JohnMcGreal
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Re: Will we stay up

Post by JohnMcGreal » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:47 pm

I'll be very surprised if we avoid relegation this season. We look like absolute certs for the drop at the moment.

Too short on quality, too short on numbers, too many things wrong at the club at various levels. I just can't see us picking up enough points to survive, unfortunately.

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