CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... e-19840238
According to the article
"Both Fulham and Burnley are projected to rack up 34 points this campaign, but Parker's side are forecast to leapfrog the Clarets and achieve safety at the expense of Dyche's outfit.
The projection is calculated using statistics which take into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded.
It also includes ball possession, teams’ own passes and those of their opponents in the opposite third of the pitch."
This is a complete nonsense. Dyche's style isn't based on possession or passing. They must have been surprised that we stayed up last year and Norwich didn't.
According to the article
"Both Fulham and Burnley are projected to rack up 34 points this campaign, but Parker's side are forecast to leapfrog the Clarets and achieve safety at the expense of Dyche's outfit.
The projection is calculated using statistics which take into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded.
It also includes ball possession, teams’ own passes and those of their opponents in the opposite third of the pitch."
This is a complete nonsense. Dyche's style isn't based on possession or passing. They must have been surprised that we stayed up last year and Norwich didn't.
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
We all know statistoics are pointless. A team could have 30 shots on target and not score while the other team has one shot on target and scores. Three points to the team with the poor statistics.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Exactly. Football is a game full of statistics, those statistics, however, will never determine the results of matches. There'll be trends, possibilities, probabilities that will generally come to pass - hence the bookmakers' wealth - but they can always be bucked. Look at the bookies' odds for us to go down.
Conventional or not, Dyche is a master of defying "logic".
Conventional or not, Dyche is a master of defying "logic".
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Forgot to add that they haven't included statistics for refs and VAR which can have the biggest influence on a game. A typical example would be our 1-0 loss to Leeds, could just as easy have been a 1-0 win if the decisions were reversed.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
I think Fulham have a chance of hitting the 35 mark, but I’m sure we’ll be looking at 40+ whatever the result tomorrow. Newcastle and Palace could be sweating. Newcastle play away at Fulham on the final day.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
What a load of nonsense. Why is this cr@p continually churned out ?
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
So despite us having the lowest goals conceded in the bottom half, we are only going to get 8 more points from the 45 that are left remaining?
As pointed out, both here and on the twitter feed that I saw this last night, you can make stats show anything you want, but the only stat that means anything at the end of the day is the final score.
Can you imagine the "Classified Results" on a Saturday, if based on stats?
As pointed out, both here and on the twitter feed that I saw this last night, you can make stats show anything you want, but the only stat that means anything at the end of the day is the final score.
Can you imagine the "Classified Results" on a Saturday, if based on stats?
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
We are always the anomaly to these statistical based tables, we have less shots, less possession, and concede more shots than our points gained suggests we should do.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
We probably have fewer shots because a lot of our chances come from crosses and flick-ons from outside the box. So if the ball doesn’t hand to feet of Vydra or on the head of Wood, there is no chance recorded.
The reason we have so many shots on target against us is because we make teams resort to long distance shots.
The reason we have so many shots on target against us is because we make teams resort to long distance shots.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Seems legit.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Hmmm, we had more shots and more (than our ususal) possession at Palace on Saturday and won 3-0. I'm not sure what the stats were on Matt Lowton scoring, never mind how he scored - but, then there's also the stats that put Nick Pope top of the "goals prevented" table.claretandy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:32 amWe are always the anomaly to these statistical based tables, we have less shots, less possession, and concede more shots than our points gained suggests we should do.
UTC
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
The biggest problem with these formulations is that they tend to assume that if the stats show you are a little worse than the opponent in 5 games, you will lose all five. In reality, you are likely to sneak perhaps a win and a draw.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Would they like a little wager on this?
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
If we only get 8 points from the remaining 15 matches, then we will deserve to go downdibraidio wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:54 amhttps://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... e-19840238
According to the article
"Both Fulham and Burnley are projected to rack up 34 points this campaign, but Parker's side are forecast to leapfrog the Clarets and achieve safety at the expense of Dyche's outfit.
The projection is calculated using statistics which take into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded.
It also includes ball possession, teams’ own passes and those of their opponents in the opposite third of the pitch."
This is a complete nonsense. Dyche's style isn't based on possession or passing. They must have been surprised that we stayed up last year and Norwich didn't.
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
I'd like to see the update to these predictions after we win 3 more points tomorrow night...
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
They can't predict injuries to key players which can be a massive influence. Newcastle for example, losing Callum Wilson for a few weeks should impact their ability to score goals.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Our XG against palace was 1.7, i'm not saying 3-0 flattered us, but we tend to score the hard chances, hence our XG was 0.7 against Villa, but we scored 3 goals.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:01 amHmmm, we had more shots and more (than our ususal) possession at Palace on Saturday and won 3-0. I'm not sure what the stats were on Matt Lowton scoring, never mind how he scored - but, then there's also the stats that put Nick Pope top of the "goals prevented" table.
UTC
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Who pays these people?
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
I like this one https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/prem ... /predicted
They're predicting we'll only score 3 more goals this season but will pick up 11 more points. Highly efficient.
They're predicting we'll only score 3 more goals this season but will pick up 11 more points. Highly efficient.
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
All predictions are nonsense. A super computer however programmed has a prediction with as much accuracy as a prediction from anyone on this board.
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Which computer would have predicted at the start of the season, that our first 2 away wins would be at Arsenal and Liverpool
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
So CIES predict Burnley will get 8 points from the last 15 games?
Despite 24 points from our last 16 games?
The problem isn’t statistics as a profession. The problem is amateurs using them inappropriately. Either the wrong stat altogether or the right stat used to wrong way.
Expected goals, expected shots, that kind of thing. All useful in a certain context but useless for this kind of prediction - simply because there are many more variables not considered (e.g. Burnley’s happiness to let opponents shoot from distance with our defenders blocking each post so the shot typically goes straight to Pope).
When I see nonsense like this I tend to agree with Alan Pace that done correctly the club can get an advantage from data and analytics - because few do it right.
Despite 24 points from our last 16 games?
The problem isn’t statistics as a profession. The problem is amateurs using them inappropriately. Either the wrong stat altogether or the right stat used to wrong way.
Expected goals, expected shots, that kind of thing. All useful in a certain context but useless for this kind of prediction - simply because there are many more variables not considered (e.g. Burnley’s happiness to let opponents shoot from distance with our defenders blocking each post so the shot typically goes straight to Pope).
When I see nonsense like this I tend to agree with Alan Pace that done correctly the club can get an advantage from data and analytics - because few do it right.
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
I saw something that said XG 8 Palace and XG 0 Burnley, I was confused but when the teams came out they started calculated and said, yes very close, in this case the XG they were talking about in the freezing weather was wearing gloves. They were laughing and saying these lads playing for Burnley don't do gloves, one of them mentioned, can you imagine SD if he saw them in gloves!!claretandy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:35 amOur XG against palace was 1.7, i'm not saying 3-0 flattered us, but we tend to score the hard chances, hence our XG was 0.7 against Villa, but we scored 3 goals.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Fulham might stay up, and they might get 34 points, although that would require their form to take a dramatic upturn, but can anyone imagine Burnley not surpassing 34 points come the end of the season, after all we've already got 26, and we've also got to play Fulham twice, Newcastle, Sheff Utd, West Brom and Wolves, I'd expect us to amass 9/10 points from those games alone, and we are well capable of nicking results from most of our other remaining games, so how they come to this bizarre conclusion baffles me.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
To all those who are pooh-poohing this:
Guys, this was put together by experts. They haven't just guessed at it - they used a STATISTICAL MODEL.
We're doomed. Doomed. DOOOOOOOMED.
Guys, this was put together by experts. They haven't just guessed at it - they used a STATISTICAL MODEL.
We're doomed. Doomed. DOOOOOOOMED.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
I think the german octopus will be more accurate.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Didn't "Paul" the octopus "turn up his tentacles" not long after the World cup
Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
I also fancy Fulham to stay up but not at our expense, every time I see Newcastle play they look the worst side in the league.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Lost me at “statistics”....dibraidio wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:54 amhttps://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... e-19840238
According to the article
"Both Fulham and Burnley are projected to rack up 34 points this campaign, but Parker's side are forecast to leapfrog the Clarets and achieve safety at the expense of Dyche's outfit.
The projection is calculated using statistics which take into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded.
It also includes ball possession, teams’ own passes and those of their opponents in the opposite third of the pitch."
This is a complete nonsense. Dyche's style isn't based on possession or passing. They must have been surprised that we stayed up last year and Norwich didn't.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up
Ah what a shame. Maybe he can be like a great artist. Known for his work after death.
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