CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

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dibraidio
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CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by dibraidio » Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:54 am

https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... e-19840238
According to the article
"Both Fulham and Burnley are projected to rack up 34 points this campaign, but Parker's side are forecast to leapfrog the Clarets and achieve safety at the expense of Dyche's outfit.

The projection is calculated using statistics which take into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded.

It also includes ball possession, teams’ own passes and those of their opponents in the opposite third of the pitch."

This is a complete nonsense. Dyche's style isn't based on possession or passing. They must have been surprised that we stayed up last year and Norwich didn't.

Firthy
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Firthy » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:04 am

We all know statistoics are pointless. A team could have 30 shots on target and not score while the other team has one shot on target and scores. Three points to the team with the poor statistics.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by evensteadiereddie » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:06 am

Exactly. Football is a game full of statistics, those statistics, however, will never determine the results of matches. There'll be trends, possibilities, probabilities that will generally come to pass - hence the bookmakers' wealth - but they can always be bucked. Look at the bookies' odds for us to go down.
Conventional or not, Dyche is a master of defying "logic".

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Firthy » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:13 am

Forgot to add that they haven't included statistics for refs and VAR which can have the biggest influence on a game. A typical example would be our 1-0 loss to Leeds, could just as easy have been a 1-0 win if the decisions were reversed.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Cubanclaret » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:15 am

I think Fulham have a chance of hitting the 35 mark, but I’m sure we’ll be looking at 40+ whatever the result tomorrow. Newcastle and Palace could be sweating. Newcastle play away at Fulham on the final day.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Funkydrummer » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:23 am

What a load of nonsense. Why is this cr@p continually churned out ?

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Sozturf7 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:25 am

Ha ha

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by wilks_bfc » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:31 am

So despite us having the lowest goals conceded in the bottom half, we are only going to get 8 more points from the 45 that are left remaining?

As pointed out, both here and on the twitter feed that I saw this last night, you can make stats show anything you want, but the only stat that means anything at the end of the day is the final score.

Can you imagine the "Classified Results" on a Saturday, if based on stats?

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by claretandy » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:32 am

We are always the anomaly to these statistical based tables, we have less shots, less possession, and concede more shots than our points gained suggests we should do.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by claptrappers_union » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:55 am

We probably have fewer shots because a lot of our chances come from crosses and flick-ons from outside the box. So if the ball doesn’t hand to feet of Vydra or on the head of Wood, there is no chance recorded.

The reason we have so many shots on target against us is because we make teams resort to long distance shots.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Rileybobs » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:56 am

Seems legit.
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Paul Waine
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Paul Waine » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:01 am

claretandy wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:32 am
We are always the anomaly to these statistical based tables, we have less shots, less possession, and concede more shots than our points gained suggests we should do.
Hmmm, we had more shots and more (than our ususal) possession at Palace on Saturday and won 3-0. I'm not sure what the stats were on Matt Lowton scoring, never mind how he scored - but, then there's also the stats that put Nick Pope top of the "goals prevented" table.

UTC

dsr
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by dsr » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:06 am

The biggest problem with these formulations is that they tend to assume that if the stats show you are a little worse than the opponent in 5 games, you will lose all five. In reality, you are likely to sneak perhaps a win and a draw.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by yorkyclaret » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:09 am

Would they like a little wager on this?

D8BFC
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by D8BFC » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:14 am

dibraidio wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:54 am
https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... e-19840238
According to the article
"Both Fulham and Burnley are projected to rack up 34 points this campaign, but Parker's side are forecast to leapfrog the Clarets and achieve safety at the expense of Dyche's outfit.

The projection is calculated using statistics which take into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded.

It also includes ball possession, teams’ own passes and those of their opponents in the opposite third of the pitch."

This is a complete nonsense. Dyche's style isn't based on possession or passing. They must have been surprised that we stayed up last year and Norwich didn't.
If we only get 8 points from the remaining 15 matches, then we will deserve to go down :shock:

nyclaret
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by nyclaret » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:22 am

I'd like to see the update to these predictions after we win 3 more points tomorrow night...

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Stan Tastic » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:33 am

They can't predict injuries to key players which can be a massive influence. Newcastle for example, losing Callum Wilson for a few weeks should impact their ability to score goals.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by claretandy » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:35 am

Paul Waine wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:01 am
Hmmm, we had more shots and more (than our ususal) possession at Palace on Saturday and won 3-0. I'm not sure what the stats were on Matt Lowton scoring, never mind how he scored - but, then there's also the stats that put Nick Pope top of the "goals prevented" table.

UTC
Our XG against palace was 1.7, i'm not saying 3-0 flattered us, but we tend to score the hard chances, hence our XG was 0.7 against Villa, but we scored 3 goals.

Stayingup
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Stayingup » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:49 am

Who pays these people?

Bosscat
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Bosscat » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:54 am

Stayingup wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:49 am
Who pays these people?
Betting companies I would wager 🤔

🤭🤭🤭

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Quicknick » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:57 am

Bullwarks.

aggi
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by aggi » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:23 am

I like this one https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/prem ... /predicted

They're predicting we'll only score 3 more goals this season but will pick up 11 more points. Highly efficient.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by gtclaret » Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:40 pm

All predictions are nonsense. A super computer however programmed has a prediction with as much accuracy as a prediction from anyone on this board.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by gtclaret » Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:44 pm

Which computer would have predicted at the start of the season, that our first 2 away wins would be at Arsenal and Liverpool

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:57 pm

So CIES predict Burnley will get 8 points from the last 15 games?

Despite 24 points from our last 16 games?

The problem isn’t statistics as a profession. The problem is amateurs using them inappropriately. Either the wrong stat altogether or the right stat used to wrong way.

Expected goals, expected shots, that kind of thing. All useful in a certain context but useless for this kind of prediction - simply because there are many more variables not considered (e.g. Burnley’s happiness to let opponents shoot from distance with our defenders blocking each post so the shot typically goes straight to Pope).

When I see nonsense like this I tend to agree with Alan Pace that done correctly the club can get an advantage from data and analytics - because few do it right.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by KateR » Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:52 pm

claretandy wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:35 am
Our XG against palace was 1.7, i'm not saying 3-0 flattered us, but we tend to score the hard chances, hence our XG was 0.7 against Villa, but we scored 3 goals.
I saw something that said XG 8 Palace and XG 0 Burnley, I was confused but when the teams came out they started calculated and said, yes very close, in this case the XG they were talking about in the freezing weather was wearing gloves. They were laughing and saying these lads playing for Burnley don't do gloves, one of them mentioned, can you imagine SD if he saw them in gloves!!
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by tiger76 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:22 pm

Fulham might stay up, and they might get 34 points, although that would require their form to take a dramatic upturn, but can anyone imagine Burnley not surpassing 34 points come the end of the season, after all we've already got 26, and we've also got to play Fulham twice, Newcastle, Sheff Utd, West Brom and Wolves, I'd expect us to amass 9/10 points from those games alone, and we are well capable of nicking results from most of our other remaining games, so how they come to this bizarre conclusion baffles me.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Rowls » Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:27 pm

To all those who are pooh-poohing this:

Guys, this was put together by experts. They haven't just guessed at it - they used a STATISTICAL MODEL.

We're doomed. Doomed. DOOOOOOOMED.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Bosscat » Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:36 pm

Rowls wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:27 pm
To all those who are pooh-poohing this:

Guys, this was put together by experts. They haven't just guessed at it - they used a STATISTICAL MODEL.

We're doomed. Doomed. DOOOOOOOMED.
No Rowls these are "model statistics"
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by superdimitri » Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:52 pm

I think the german octopus will be more accurate.
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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Bosscat » Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:04 pm

superdimitri wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:52 pm
I think the german octopus will be more accurate.
Didn't "Paul" the octopus "turn up his tentacles" not long after the World cup 🤔

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by KRBFC » Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:51 pm

I also fancy Fulham to stay up but not at our expense, every time I see Newcastle play they look the worst side in the league.

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by Devils_Advocate » Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:09 pm

Firthy wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:04 am
We all know statistics are pointless.
Very true

https://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboa ... =2&t=53324

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by bobinho » Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:14 pm

dibraidio wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:54 am
https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... e-19840238
According to the article
"Both Fulham and Burnley are projected to rack up 34 points this campaign, but Parker's side are forecast to leapfrog the Clarets and achieve safety at the expense of Dyche's outfit.

The projection is calculated using statistics which take into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded.

It also includes ball possession, teams’ own passes and those of their opponents in the opposite third of the pitch."

This is a complete nonsense. Dyche's style isn't based on possession or passing. They must have been surprised that we stayed up last year and Norwich didn't.
Lost me at “statistics”....

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Re: CIES Football Observatory predicts Burnley relegation and Fulham staying up

Post by superdimitri » Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:05 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:04 pm
Didn't "Paul" the octopus "turn up his tentacles" not long after the World cup 🤔
Ah what a shame. Maybe he can be like a great artist. Known for his work after death.
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