Home wins v Away wins

[ClaretTony]

Just looked at the last five seasons in the Premier League - amazing stats really which must be due to no crowds

2016/17: 187 home wins & 109 away wins
2017/18: 173 home wins & 108 away wins
2018/19: 181 home wins & 128 away wins
2019/20: 172 home wins & 116 away wins
2020/21: 107 home wins & 112 away wins

Manchester City, West Ham, Liverpool. Spurs, Wolves, Southampton, Newcastle, West Brom and Sheffield United the only teams with more home wins than away wins.

[jdrobbo]

Incredible difference

[Hibsclaret]

Incredible stuff tbh. The likes of West Ham have profited more than most because they have struggled at Home in the past. Also, I suspect Liverpool have less home wins in 2021 than away wins

[GordonvaleClaret]

Still 94 games to go

Current stats are:
H A
49% 29%
46% 28%
48% 34%
45% 31%
37% 39%
give or take depending on CT's timing.

Quite a significant difference this season.

What are the reasons?
No home crowd impact.
Increased team bonding due to "getting out".

Here are the draws stats
22%
26%
19%
24%
23%
Not a significant change.

[Bosscat]

Just goes to show how much difference fans make...

[Goddy]

An academic chum of mine wrote a paper (slightly in jest but still a decent piece of research) essentially on 'why England would always be underdogs in a penalty shoot-out' (roughly). Check it out....its by Jon Billsberry.

I said to him a few years back, 'I've often wondered about the effect of home advantage and whether it really exists'. Billsberry said, 'Great question, you'll never be able to research it, though, as nowhere near enough games played behind closed doors to get a decent data set.'

Think I might ring him up this morning - ha ha

PS wonder if the same has happened in other leagues which have continued without fans?

[NottsClaret]

A fascinating 12 month social experiment, that's for sure. Not sure we should repeat it though.

[duncandisorderly]

The lack of crowds is the only universal thing missing. You could put the odd teams blip down to the shortened pre season, or previous seasons could be put down to tiredness from international competitions, but this year its just because of crowds.

There is no real reason for football matches to not be a more or less 50/50 split between home and away victories - you have a slight home advantage for knowing the geography of the pitch better - but it's clearly only the fans that have made that difference.

[rufus lumley]

You could also throw VAR into the mix .

[Bosscat]

You could also throw VAR into the mix .

There are times it should be thrown in a mixer and buried under a bridge

[Spijed]

2019/20: 172 home wins & 116 away wins

Would be interesting to know if the percentage changed last season when we went into lockdown or whether it's just this season that has been affected.

[Rileybobs]

I was quite skeptical about how much difference attending fans made to players performances to be honest, but this is quite telling. It will be interesting to see the breakdown next season. I wonder if teams will approach away fixtures with less trepidation and more positivity knowing that they're still effectively playing the same game on the same patch of grass.

[duncandisorderly]

it's not necessarily the teams but the refs too. I know they are impartial and unbiased but they are mainly human and will get swayed by a partisan crowd.

[Hibsclaret]

Definitely the refs too

[martin_p]

it's not necessarily the teams but the refs too. I know they are impartial and unbiased but they are mainly human and will get swayed by a partisan crowd.

Some stats on decisions given to home teams v away teams would be interesting.

[Goddy]

Sorry to come across as such a stuffy academic type (honestly, I'm not that much of a pompous @rse) but all the issues everyone is raising is precisely the point.

What seems to be shown is that there is a clear positive effect of having fans at the game for home teams. The next issue is to work out what are the causal factors i.e. is it that players (literally) try harder at home, are the refs influenced/pressurised into giving 'home' decisions, is knowing your own surroundings (changing rooms, way to the ground, meeting lots of friendly faces who work at the club) a factor, proximity of the crowd to the players etc etc etc. I could go on.

It's one thing to find out that there is a 'home effect' - it's another to find out precisely what are the most important factor(s) which drive that effect. If it turns out, for argument's sake, that proximity of the crowd to the players is a key factor, that might (indeed, should) have an impact on stadium design going forward. (I take this example thinking about how West Ham appear to have suffered from moving from the Boleyn Ground (with the crowd almost on the pitch) to the London Stadium (where the crowd's almost in the next parish) and how the Hammers have underperformed (seemingly) after thier move)..

[KateR]

18/19 also looks an odd one to me, presumably through a lot less draws within a season, although the draw stat's presented above doesn't look like a big difference it certainly stood out to me.

[ClaretTony]

Still 94 games to go

Current stats are:
H A
49% 29%
46% 28%
48% 34%
45% 31%
37% 39%
give or take depending on CT's timing.

Quite a significant difference this season.

What are the reasons?
No home crowd impact.
Increased team bonding due to "getting out".

Here are the draws stats
22%
26%
19%
24%
23%
Not a significant change.

Not sure what you mean by timings but the figures at the top for this season are following last night's Wolves v Liverpool game.

I'm convinced it is lack of fans that has contributed greatly. If a home team goes behind in a game then the home crowd can often get behind them to help them back into the game. That's just not happening now.