Are we still going down?

[tiger76]

If we could get to 40 points then it's possible now.

Mind you 40 points might not be enough.

Why won't 40 points be enough, can you honestly see Brentford, Norwich & Watford getting anywhere near 40 points because I can't, and I wouldn't bank on Everton, Leeds, Leicester or Palace passing 40 points, Leicester and Palace probably will, but Everton and Leeds are in dreadful form, and all these sides have only 12-14 games remaining, so not a lot of time to turn that form around.

[ClaretPete001]

18/19 was our European season and I think that was the only reason we had a problem that year.

The squad was on balance deeper and better than the one we have now (see below) and we had 2 strikers on fire in the second half of the season.

I also think the 18/19 Cardiff in this situation is probably Brentford who are on 24 points.

I think those are the caveats to the 18/19 comparison

Tom Heaton
Matthew Lowton
Charlie Taylor
Jack Cork
James Tarkowski
Ben Mee
Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson
Sam Vokes 
Ashley Barnes
Chris Wood
Robbie Brady
Jeff Hendrick
Ben Gibson
Peter Crouch
Steven Defour
Ashley Westwood
Jonathan Walters
Joe Hart
Nahki Wells
Anders Lindegaard
Stephen Ward
Aaron Lennon
Phil Bardsley
Matěj Vydra
Kevin Long
Nick Pope
Adam Legzdins
Dwight McNeil
Dan Agyei
Conor Mitchell
Ali Koiki
Anthony Glennon
Josh Benson

[jdrobbo]

Brentford could be the team to chase

For me, Brentford have been that team since mid-November.

[IanMcL]

We could still make Europe!

[Kgun5]

Possibly less noticeable. I'd put a lot of the current relegation certainty doom-mongers in with the "In Dyche we trust" brigade who refuse to countenance any questioning or negativity.

There's a lot of the season to go, we're looking fairly solid and we have games in hand but we've only won two all season. We might go down, we might stay up. It's all still open.

In this case, it’s not that difficult to remove a lot of the subjectivity from the situation. The FiveThirtyEight simulation algorithm sees us staying up on GD. The betting market has us with a roughly 40% chance of staying up, (not taking any vig into account).

Most of the data seems to say it’s going to be close and could go either way. Any an all opinions about what will happen should be on the table.

[LoveCurryPies]

We have a slim chance. I'm optimistic from recent performances but worried about injuries to key players especially those up front. The old cliche one match at a time is true. Personally, I'd like to see Newcastle go down after their £100million spend. Figures, toes and b*llocks crossed for Wednesday night!

[jojomk1]

Our league position in two weeks time (after four more games) should give a much clearer insight

[Roosterbooster]

For me, Brentford have been that team since mid-November.

I kept thinking that. Then they'd win again. But 4pts from 10 is very, very poor form. But they have a strange run in. A difficult April, followed by quite a nice May

[The Enclosure]

NO!!

[tiger76]

I kept thinking that. Then they'd win again. But 4pts from 10 is very, very poor form. But they have a strange run in. A difficult April, followed by quite a nice May

The key thing with Brentford is they only have 12 games left, and if they don't up a good haul of points in their next 3, Newcastle, Norwich & Burnley they could well find themselves close to the bottom 3, who are all showing improving form, agree their April schedule looks tough, but Saints, Everton & Leeds to finish, well on paper not looking too bad, might contain 2 6-pointers.

What's really killing Brentford is their long injury list, and unless they manage to get some of their stars fit, and CE has an impact you have to fear for them, plus unlike Burnley, Norwich & Watford, Brentford have never experienced a PL relegation scrap.

It's a similar scenario to us under Coyle in 09/10, set off like a train, got a good haul of points on the board pre-Xmas, then we fell off a cliff, and even before Coyle walked we'd been on a dreadful run of results.

[Goddy]

For me, Brentford have been that team since mid-November.

I had a bet with a mate of mine in early December that Brentford would be relegated. Whilst they've done ok, I still think they'll be one of the three to drop.

As for the other two, please let it be Dirty Leeds and one of Newcastle and Everton. That being said, as long as it's not us, I don't really care that much tbh

[jdrobbo]

I had a bet with a mate of mine in early December that Brentford would be relegated. Whilst they've done ok, I still think they'll be one of the three to drop.

As for the other two, please let it be Dirty Leeds and one of Newcastle and Everton. That being said, as long as it's not us, I don't really care that much tbh

Absolutely. This is not a season to be picking and choosing. Any three but us!

[jdrobbo]

I kept thinking that. Then they'd win again. But 4pts from 10 is very, very poor form. But they have a strange run in. A difficult April, followed by quite a nice May

That’s what we said in 2009 when we had Wigan, Pompey, Wolves, Hull, Blackburn and Sunderland still to play.

We got four points from those games. We should have stayed up easily that season. Just winning at Wigan would’ve done it but we threw so many points away from winnable games. The reason….we were on a bad run and couldn’t get a grip on it.

[leelad]

Good post jdrobbo, I get the impression from listening to Sean's pre match interview today that the Leeds defeat was the point where Burnley reached their 'rock bottom' for the season, and a reset/reminder was required to the team about their performance levels. Only time will tell if we have got a grip on our bad run, but I sense that Sean has more know-how and tactical understanding about his team and their 'statistical markers' compared to Messrs Coyle & Laws in that season.

[ClaretAL]

For me, Brentford have been that team since mid-November.

Strangely enough me too, i have been watching the gap and games in hand and their performances and I think they will replace us in the bottom 3

[Spiral]

That’s what we said in 2009 when we had Wigan, Pompey, Wolves, Hull, Blackburn and Sunderland still to play.

This has nothing to do with the thread, but Christ it's remarkable to think that every single one of those teams you've listed there have had stints in League One since that season while our nadir in that time was sitting relatively comfortably mid-table in the Championship, never truly in danger of anything worse, for what feels like only two minutes of the last twelve or so years. Football is weird. Never in a million years could a person have predicted the last decade would pan out the way it has.

[jdrobbo]

This has nothing to do with the thread, but Christ it's remarkable to think that every single one of those teams you've listed there have had stints in League One since that season while our nadir in that time was sitting relatively comfortably mid-table in the Championship, never truly in danger of anything worse, for what feels like only two minutes of the last twelve or so years. Football is weird. Never in a million years could a person have predicted the last decade would pan out the way it has.

Quite. Good point!

[Hibsclaret]

I’ve been saying Brentford will go down all season and have got a few accumulators which include them getting relegated at around 8/1 and 10/1. They are now 3/1 which is still printing money. I also have them at 40/1 to finish bottom which is a bit more speculative. Always good to have an interest in the run ins of all leagues at this point of the season. There’s some good odds on teams like Bolton and Bristol Rovers to finish in the playoffs across the other leagues.

[mybloodisclaret]

Anyone but us please, a draw tomorrow would be a very good point, a win would be amazing and we could really look towards Palace who sit 13th with games in hand to catch them up. Come on Burnley!!

[tiger76]

Anyone but us please, a draw tomorrow would be a very good point, a win would be amazing and we could really look towards Palace who sit 13th with games in hand to catch them up. Come on Burnley!!

A win tonight would be great, but a draw wouldn't be a bad point after Saturday's win, and ahead of the 2 away matches at Palace & Brentford, where we'd hope to pick up points.

[Roosterbooster]

Updated

Norwich
-3 pts, 2 games
Still to play? Away

Watford
-2 pts, 2 games
Still to play? Away

Newcastle
2pts, 1 game
Still to play? Home

Everton
2pts, 0 games
Still to play? Home

Leeds
3pts, 2 games
Still to play? No

Brentford
4pts, 3 games
Still to play? Away

Crystal Palace
9pts, 3 games
Still to play? Away

Aston Villa
7pts, 1 game
Still to play? Home & Away

[tiger76]

Not safe yet by a long chalk, but our fate is now well and truly in our own hands.

Last 6 won 2 drawn 3 lost 1 (Liverpool) 9 points, maintain anything close to that form and we'll be fine.

[Spijed]

Get another 16 points from 15 matches and we'll be very close.

I'll be very surprised if BOTH Leeds and Brentford get 38 points this season.

Norwich and Watford certainly won't.

[Tall Paul]

Super Computer has changed its predictions...

20220221_160506.jpg

Supercomputer now says we're more likely to stay up than Everton, Leeds and Newcastle.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... id=rrpromo

[mybloodisclaret]

A win tonight would be great, but a draw wouldn't be a bad point after Saturday's win, and ahead of the 2 away matches at Palace & Brentford, where we'd hope to pick up points.

A win it is then

[Burnleyareback2]

Absolutely not

[KateR]

the pendulum slowly swinging for some me thinks after tonight, still a lot to do but.........

[Aclaret]

If we stay up, it will be the miracle of all miracles from where we were around Christmas time....I wouldn't put it past us you know ! UTC

[Elizabeth]

Clearly tonight and Saturday's results help improve our chances of not going down.
It would be even harder now to accept relegation after witnessing those two good performances and more importantly good results. The sides we have comfortably beaten have been that good that they have earned positions in the top half of the table while we have struggled so much in the bottom 3 positions of the table.
I might be changing my mind soon if we continue in the vein that we have been doing.

[Wile E Coyote]

all the dross fans creeping back out. horrific.

[dibraidio]

Points away from 1 point per game:

Everton -1
Leeds -2
Brentford -2
Newcastle -2
Burnley -3
Watford -7
Norwich -8

Watching the players at the end of the game last night, this is not a team who are going to go down without a fight. Four points against Palace and Leicester would only bring us to -1 but that would be a massive step towards dragging Newcastle, Everton, Leeds and Brentford into the mire.

[Dyched]

I’m less bothered if we still go down after the past few weeks.

We’re in the final rounds, bust lips, bloody nose, shot eyes and all. But we’re coming back swinging, we’re having a do. That’s good enough for me.

[tiger76]

We might still go down, but we've given ourselves every chance of avoiding the dreaded drop now.

1 defeat in 6, 2 goals conceded in that period, and that's when playing Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs & Utd, and 4 clean sheets in that same period, carry on keeping it tight at the back, and we'll nick the required wins we need.

5 wins from 15 is well within our range now we've hit our solid selves again. That plus the odd draw should be enough, be good to get the points on the board sooner than later though as we don't really want it going to the last day.

[ian]

Supercomputer now says we're more likely to stay up than Everton, Leeds and Newcastle.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... id=rrpromo

wonder if that table is completed with a win over newcastle on the final day, if so we would have been in the bottom three on the same morning

[RingoMcCartney]

Let's see.

The good news is, that Sean Dyche , the most successful burnley football club manager for over 50 years , has rediscovered the jar of Strong Jaw Replenishing Cream, he appeared to have misplaced.

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

[Spijed]

Some excellent analysis on the Leeds United forum regarding the teams at the bottom:

http://www.lufctalk.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=7016

[Jakubclaret]

Supercomputer now says we're more likely to stay up than Everton, Leeds and Newcastle.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... id=rrpromo

That supercomputer needs rebooting if it thinks Newcastle will be anywhere near us at the end.

[Middle-agedClaret]

Probably