Russia Invades

[lostinthegame]

Could Ukraine face Russia in a play off final, if RFU go through?

Thankfully not, different paths to their finals, Ukraine would play the winner of Wales v Austria and the Czechs or Swedes would face the absurd ghoul team

[Vegas Claret]

wow, Oryx is highly respected

[Inchy]

Literally every Russian tank or vehicle I’ve seen reported looks like it’s from the 80s

They are rolling into a modern war with the military equivalent of a Lada

[claretandy]

Without wanting to get the thread pulled, remember the last four days when someone tries to tell you that the EU is weak btw

TBF, they were so far up Putin's backside, they could see Corbyns feet.

[Inchy]

What’s struck me as a massive positive from this is how ordinary people are uniting behind Ukraine. Thousands of ordinary people are donating things to help. Here in leeds they have set up a centre for donations and I will be dropping off some nappies and sanitary products today.

The whole world seems to be behind them.

The EU welcoming all Ukrainian refugees is also brilliant and I personally think it’s shameful the U.K. hasn’t done the same. Ukrainians are not spongers. They are not from some back water with a culture not compatible with U.K. life. They are like us. They are good hard working people as are all Eastern Europeans I’ve met. We should be welcoming them here with open arms. Our country needs more people like Ukrainians. They’re mindset is a cut above. Clearly brave, hard working grafters. From a selfish standpoint I’m sure they could come and boost our economy

[TsarBomba]

https://twitter.com/coupsure?s=11

Another good account to follow.

[TsarBomba]

Russian interest rate up to 20%.

[TsarBomba]

Ukraine update on Russian losses, as of 6am this morning:

- 5,300 soldiers
- 29 planes
- 29 helicopters
- 151 tanks

Russian attack on Kyiv slowed.

[TsarBomba]

Ukraine update on Russian losses, as of 6am this morning:

- 5,300 soldiers
- 29 planes
- 29 helicopters
- 151 tanks

Russian attack on Kyiv slowed.

Edit-

- 191 tanks
- 816 armoured vehicles

[Lancasterclaret]

Whether the EU is weak or not is irrelevant.

Most of Europe have been against Putin and Russia for a long while before this war.

Its not irrelevant though

I don't want the thread pulled so I'll leave it at that

[Lancasterclaret]

TBF, they were so far up Putin's backside, they could see Corbyns feet.

I don't want the thread pulled, but stuff like that is just you at your worst

[TsarBomba]

Russian TvRain news agency reporting a general enlistment across the country, either as contract soldiers or reservists.

[Lancasterclaret]

It's been a monumental effort from countries and trading blocs from all over Europe. It seems like a really bad time to start with the divisive stuff in my opinion

I don't want the thread pulled (No 3) but people have to separate what happened in 2016 with the reality of what they have done in the past 72 hours

[Lancasterclaret]

Russian rouble absolutely tanking on the markets

Now 106 roubles to the dollar, and its only going one way

[gandhisflipflop]

I don't want the thread pulled, but stuff like that is just you at your worst

So why say anything at all then? It’s obvious people will come back at you so best off just leaving it.

[RVclaret]

Russian negotiator at Ukraine talks says Russia is interested in coming to an agreement with Ukraine as soon as possible (IFAX).

[Hipper]

It's a shame the Vulcans are no longer serviceable

We've still got a Lancaster.

[Lancasterclaret]

Russian interest rates up to 20% from 9.5%

Like sticking a plaster over your neck when your head has been chopped off

[Lancasterclaret]

So why say anything at all then? It’s obvious people will come back at you so best off just leaving it.

No you are right

Sorry

[BigChaCha]

Without wanting to get the thread pulled, remember the last four days when someone tries to tell you that the EU is weak btw

Only because of pressure from the US and especially the UK... The EU has been behind the curve for a while. The UK has been well in front when it comes to training Ukrainian troops over the last 2 years and we were also the first European country to provide lethal aid in the current crisis...

... It has taken a lot of persuasion from the US and particularly the UK on the Swift payment sanctions for example and also to get the EU to follow the UK's lead to provide lethal aid... I'm pleased they seem to be getting their act together now though, seeing as the problem is on their doorstep.

[JohnMcGreal]

It sounds like Belarus are preparing to send in troops to assist the Russians.

No surprises there as Belarus is essentially a Russian puppet state, but quite embarrassing for Putin's ego I imagine.

[claretonthecoast1882]

The role Belarus has played in this from the start shouldn't be forgotten.

A country that needs heavy sanctions and punishments

[NewClaret]

Russian rouble absolutely tanking on the markets

Now 106 roubles to the dollar, and its only going one way

114 now! Tanking.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

We've still got a Lancaster.

He's busy on here keeping us updated

[evensteadiereddie]

TBF, they were so far up Putin's backside, they could see Corbyns feet.

Aye, they almost played tennis with them at one stage......Good to see the current fast-tracked Economic Crime Bill is to hunt down Russian "dirty" money. Better late than never I guess.
It will be interesting to see, forexample, how many of the Russian donations to the Conservative Party are considered "dirty" and are duly returned.

[ClaretCliff]

Aye, they almost played tennis with them at one stage......Good to see the current fast-tracked Economic Crime Bill is to hunt down Russian "dirty" money. Better late than never I guess.
It will be interesting to see, forexample, how many of the Russian donations to the Conservative Party are considered "dirty" and are duly returned.

Please lay off the party politics to stop this thread being locked again.

[Quickenthetempo]

Aye, they almost played tennis with them at one stage......Good to see the current fast-tracked Economic Crime Bill is to hunt down Russian "dirty" money. Better late than never I guess.
It will be interesting to see, forexample, how many of the Russian donations to the Conservative Party are considered "dirty" and are duly returned.

Probably not the best idea to return any money to friends of Putin or dirty money that the Russian government might seize.

[evensteadiereddie]

No problem, I was just putting claretandy right.

I'm sure that money could be put to some better use.


We move on.

[Jakubclaret]

Please lay off the party politics to stop this thread being locked again.

Best of luck with that 1.

[evensteadiereddie]

Zzzzzzzzzz.

[Claretincraven]

Could Ukraine face Russia in a play off final, if RFU go through?

The nonsensical thing about FIFAS crazy statement is that they have to play games on neutral territory.
Firstly who the hell is going to host the game?
Secondly how the hell are the team going to get there given the no fly zones?

[CrosspoolClarets]

Where the Russians seem to have miscalculated, and it is nothing to do with politics, is that our lives now in the West are so decadent and self absorbed that they thought we would all avoid conflict and “give” them Ukraine. Prioritising a long life for ourselves and family above all else.

What we are seeing from multiple countries is a toughening up, almost overnight. A recognition that what we have cannot be taken for granted. It's stressful, and obviously undesirable, but I feel the West will exit this crisis in a much better place, one that realises reality, the importance of toughness and national boundaries, but also of collaboration. A different set of considerations will dominate the news agenda with a bit of luck even after peace has been restored.

That’s why I don't see a way out for Putin now, the resolve is too great. I just hope and pray the Ukrainians aren’t going to suffer much more to get that final peace, but of course they may.

[aggi]

The UK government really doesn't seem to have read the room on Ukrainian refugees. I know they like the PR of trying to appear an anti-immigration party but I can't imagine many are applauding their efforts to make it very difficult for Ukrainians to come here. (Particularly after happily handing out passports to rich Russians.)

[ŽižkovClaret]

We're starting to see Ukrainian refugees turn up in Prague, mostly ones meeting up with existing family links, and the support for them has been heartwarming to see.

Massive demonstrations on Wenceslas Square yesterday attended by 10's of thousands including the PM and other ministers.



Usually the 1st Wednesday of the month sees a test of the "air raid" sirens used for all kinds of public alerts, but this has been cancelled for this month given what is going on. Not least as it might be distressing for any kids newly here from Ukraine.

Pleased to say we are sending an absolute ton of heavy armaments to Ukraine from the Czech people. To say Czechs have a long memory about Russian aggression and imperialism would be an understatement.

[evensteadiereddie]

Excellent, Crosspool, the Russians were right to assume, even partly, that Western leaders have become so introspect, lazy and self-entitled that the reaction to the invasion would be lukewarm.

A generation or two ago that may well have been the case but now, as we see above, with the advent of instant news, 24/7 from official sources and, more importantly, ordinary people whose lives really are on the line, public reaction makes it impossible for even the most inept or corrupt of our leaders to get away with simply trotting out the usual pious nonsense.

it will be very interesting to see how the West recalibrates after this, recognising the importance of toughness and national boundaries absolutely but also recognising that cooperation and forward planning between allies and not blatant point-scoring is the way forward.


This could be the wake up call some of our leaders needed.

[ClaretInLeeds]

Anything credible coming out of Ukraine this morning?

[ClaretLoup]

Only because of pressure from the US and especially the UK... The EU has been behind the curve for a while. The UK has been well in front when it comes to training Ukrainian troops over the last 2 years and we were also the first European country to provide lethal aid in the current crisis...

... It has taken a lot of persuasion from the US and particularly the UK on the Swift payment sanctions for example and also to get the EU to follow the UK's lead to provide lethal aid... I'm pleased they seem to be getting their act together now though, seeing as the problem is on their doorstep.

And that is why the UK should be in the EU i.e. to show the kind of leadership you have just outlined. Maybe if the UK had still been members the objective you mentioned would have been achieved much quicker.

Whilst on the EU Zelensky has asked for immediate accession.

[Inchy]

I think Putins biggest miscalculation is the thoughts of his own people. I’m convinced that the vast majority of Russians under the age of 40 does not rely on state media for their information. Young Russians love the west. They watch our tv programs, follow our football clubs, engage in social media. They don’t want this war, I’m convinced of this. And fortunately the vast majority of Russian servicemen and women are under 40. If this wanted to take Ukraine I believe it would have happened already.

The older comrades who fantasise about the good old days may still believe what Putins states, but even in the older Russian population I believe this will be the minority.

I believe that we may get the best case scenario here, which will be old USSR fantasists ousted, and a newer younger Russia which will want to be more westernised. Russia to join NATO by 2030? I wouldn’t rule it out

[ŽižkovClaret]

The Russians i know here are angry, dissapointed and ashamed, not that they are to blame for any of this.

[TsarBomba]

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 15329?s=21

MLRS geolocated to Kharkiv, targeting what certainly looks like a residential area.

Russian troops are still pushing from both Mariupol and Berdiansk, to ultimately create a land corridor between the eastern provinces and Crimea.

[Inchy]

The Russians i know here are angry, dissapointed and ashamed, not that they are to blame for any of this.

I get that but it’s Russians who have tolerated Putin and not put up a fight to oust him……yet.


I know that’s easy for me to say, I don’t live with the risk of a gulag. But the bravery shown by the Ukrainians needs to be match’s by the Russians to get Putin out and move towards a better future for themselves

[TsarBomba]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/149 ... 46272?s=21

Heavy damage in Akhtyrka, near Sumy, NE Ukraine.

[Lancasterclaret]

Anything credible coming out of Ukraine this morning?

No change

Pretty sure the Russians are still advancing, but the fact they can't take Chernigev and Kharhiv (which are both in areas that are very close to the border and home to large Russian minorities) does make me wonder how long before they are stopped dead

Supplies and fuel appear to be the problem, and if you want any historical parallels, the Germans in 1944 at the Battle of Bulge had to abandon most of their equipment because they ran out of fuel and supplies

[NewClaret]

I find it so hard to believe the Russian army (or any modern day army) are so tinpot that they are running out of fuel. It is the sort of thing you would have expected them to anticipate and calculate. It all seems very 1940’s as you say.

That said, those convoys do look like they’d consume a lot of the stuff and I’m not sure how you’d keep them all in supply.

[TsarBomba]

Lancaster- I’m interested to know your thoughts on this.

I was reading a piece earlier, that in essence, divided Ukraine into what could be considered by Russia as 5 strategic areas.

1- Crimea
2- Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
3- Land corridor between Crimea and Eastern provinces
4- Ukraine east of Dniepr
5- Western Ukraine

We all know that Kyiv is the ultimate goal.

However, the piece suggested that if/when Russia consolidate the eastern provinces and secure a land corridor to Crimea, which they potential look like doing, then this will be presented as some sort of ‘victory’ to the Russian people, and allow them to withdraw in part and save face.

Edit- the land corridor gives Russia control of the Sea of Azov.

[TheFamilyCat]

I find it so hard to believe the Russian army (or any modern day army) are so tinpot that they are running out of fuel. It is the sort of thing you would have expected them to anticipate and calculate. It all seems very 1940’s as you say.

That said, those convoys do look like they’d consume a lot of the stuff and I’m not sure how you’d keep them all in supply.

They probably thought they would have occupied Ukraine by now and have access to their supplies.

[Lancasterclaret]

I find it so hard to believe the Russian army (or any modern day army) are so tinpot that they are running out of fuel. It is the sort of thing you would have expected them to anticipate and calculate. It all seems very 1940’s as you say.

That said, those convoys do look like they’d consume a lot of the stuff and I’m not sure how you’d keep them all in supply.

Basically, the logistics train of armies is the absolute key, but they are not what people who love power want to see

They want to see tanks, APCs, missile systems, they don't want to see the logistics trail

Again, using the WWII parallels, the Russians built practically no trucks as compared to tanks, and they made the advances they did in 1944-45 on the backs of Allied fuel, Allied trucks and allied food stuffs

I also read a great thread on twitter about the Russian OOB for this, and how they are split into battalion groups rather than brigades or divisions, and a battalion will have the absolute minimum in logistics/air co ordination support

That will have an effect, and its very possible that the sacking of Gerasimov (has that been confirmed) could be linked to that

Essentially the more supply convoys that get destroyed, the worse its going to get for the Russians, and the further in to Ukraine you get, the less troops you have available to guard rear area and replenishment convoys

[Lancasterclaret]

Lancaster- I’m interested to know your thoughts on this.

I was reading a piece earlier, that in essence, divided Ukraine into what could be considered by Russia as 5 strategic areas.

1- Crimea
2- Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
3- Land corridor between Crimea and Eastern provinces
4- Ukraine east of Dniepr
5- Western Ukraine

We all know that Kyiv is the ultimate goal.

However, the piece suggested that if/when Russia consolidate the eastern provinces and secure a land corridor to Crimea, which they potential look like doing, then this will be presented as some sort of ‘victory’ to the Russian people, and allow them to withdraw in part and save face.

Edit- the land corridor gives Russia control of the Sea of Azov.

Oh, I think they need some sort of "win" to save face

I would say that that wouldn't have counted five days ago, but now, they would snap our hands off if they ended up with control of the two eastern provinces

Thing is, I don't see how Ukraine accept that, and there is no way there will be international recognition of anything like that

[Lancasterclaret]

Even if he saves face with something like that btw, he's suffered a huge operational and strategic defeat

I'm not sure Putin will accept that at all

[Firthy]

Even if he saves face with something like that btw, he's suffered a huge operational and strategic defeat

I'm not sure Putin will accept that at all

He might have no choice unless he truly is a complete madman. The way the rouble, interest rates and the economy is heading in Russia, his own people will eventually turn on him and his puppets.