Russia Invades

Swizzlestick · Post by **Swizzlestick** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:47 am

dermotdermot wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:33 am
I’ve discovered one particularly nasty event where Ukrainians set fire to a building (they did, in fact, set many buildings alight) that was occupied by a great many Russians and proceeded to shoot them as they attempted to flee the blaze.

Source for this please? I thought the start of the fire was inconclusive - indeed it's possible pro Russian activists accidentally started it via a petrol bomb. https://cepa.org/russias-lie-machine-fa ... -massacre/

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:52 am

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:02 pm

With that all said whoever said NATO would have won the war within 1 hour is talking out of his proverbial. 100% NATO would have had Air superiority in 1 hour maybe that is what he meant after that there would have been an air war bombing key mil sites and infrastructure for a few days followed by a ground invasion.

I didn't mean literally 1 hour, the air dominance from NATO would obliterate Russia into surrender pretty fast.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:59 am

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... lsgGA&s=19

Randomly interesting thread helping to explain why Russian vehicles are breaking down, which is due to poor maintenance.
There should be more vehicle failures the longer the Russians are fighting.

duncandisorderly · Post by **duncandisorderly** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:16 am

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:59 am
There should be more vehicle failures the longer the Russians are fighting.

There should be zero vehicle failures whilst fighting a war.
That there are any at all is nuts, that there are so many is literally insane.

TsarBomba · Post by **TsarBomba** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:58 am

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:59 am
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... lsgGA&s=19

Randomly interesting thread helping to explain why Russian vehicles are breaking down, which is due to poor maintenance.
There should be more vehicle failures the longer the Russians are fighting.

Just seen this, and was about to post it.

Absolutely incredible.

Edit- and perhaps goes some way to explaining why their convoy has stalled north of Kyiv.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:39 am

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:39 am

Getting the feeling that some of you have taken the week off work for this war
Hope you saved some leave for the Ryder cup

Spiral · Post by **Spiral** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:43 am

dermotdermot wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:33 am
There’s a lot more to all this than meets the eye. I have resisted posting on this thread because I simply wasn’t aware of the extent of the conflict between these two states, only that there had been a Ukrainian coup where the right had ousted the left in 2014. I have been looking into it and have been astounded by the somewhat barbaric things that happened at that time between many varying factions. It is all extremely complicated but I’ve discovered one particularly nasty event where Ukrainians set fire to a building (they did, in fact, set many buildings alight) that was occupied by a great many Russians and proceeded to shoot them as they attempted to flee the blaze. It was in Odessa. I’m certainly not trying to justify the invasion but it does give you an insight as to why this is perhaps all happening. Perhaps one or two individuals, such as our rather pathetic foreign secretary, should read up on the facts a little before making ridiculous suggestions that British citizens should make their way to the Ukraine to join the fight for freedom.

Did you also discover that the Maidan revolution was a response to a perception of widespread corruption, to a pro-Russian then-Ukrainian president selling his nation to Russia for fifteen billion dollars in loans, doing so against the will of the people and of successive governments of 21st century Ukraine to align more closely with Europe; said president ignoring his people, stalling on signing a trade agreement with the EU at the request — and this was admitted by the Ukrainian govt of the time — of Russia? Or did you discover how Russian FSB helped organise the crackdown on protests that erupted in outrage of this betrayal? Or how the Ukrainian police under their pro-Russian president used snipers to shoot and kill protestors? Did you discover that revolutions can be violent? Did you discover if the blogs, youtube channels or websites from which you're sourcing your views on this conflict are run by useful idiots to the kremlin? Did you discover that indiscriminate assaults on civilian populations, atrocities committed with the aim of destroying morale and forcing surrender, attempting to decapitate a government — essentially, total war — did you discover that this is an inappropriate response to a neighbouring country embracing democracy and European ideals? Did you discover that the incidents you pick and choose to focus on and the context (or abandonment thereof) within which you frame the incidents to which your attention is drawn when trying to make sense of this conflict actually betrays your biases? Did you discover that you might be legitimising Putin's bogus so-called grievances?

Putin doesn't care how many ethnic Russians suffer or die in Ukraine. He doesn't even care how many suffer and die in Russia. He cares for one thing only: himself. A neighbouring country embracing democracy, the EU, and raising the living standards of its people would have the power to jeopardise Putin's own corrupt rule at home the very moment Russians take look over the border and start asking why their lives are so rubbish. This is what will be considered important to history, not a fire in a building during a revolution.

RicardoMontalban · Post by **RicardoMontalban** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:17 am

dermotdermot wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:33 am
There’s a lot more to all this than meets the eye. I have resisted posting on this thread because I simply wasn’t aware of the extent of the conflict between these two states, only that there had been a Ukrainian coup where the right had ousted the left in 2014. I have been looking into it and have been astounded by the somewhat barbaric things that happened at that time between many varying factions. It is all extremely complicated but I’ve discovered one particularly nasty event where Ukrainians set fire to a building (they did, in fact, set many buildings alight) that was occupied by a great many Russians and proceeded to shoot them as they attempted to flee the blaze. It was in Odessa. I’m certainly not trying to justify the invasion but it does give you an insight as to why this is perhaps all happening. Perhaps one or two individuals, such as our rather pathetic foreign secretary, should read up on the facts a little before making ridiculous suggestions that British citizens should make their way to the Ukraine to join the fight for freedom.

A Ukrainian coup? In the Ukraine? Who would have thought it.

I think you may need to examine your sources a little more closely. I’ve seen posts like this over the last few days and it’s safe to say they’re heavily Kremlin-centric.

joey13 · Post by **joey13** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:22 am

Damo wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:39 am
Getting the feeling that some of you have taken the week off work for this war
Hope you saved some leave for the Ryder cup

No Ryder Cup this year

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:40 am

Super thread on the internet war

https://twitter.com/warmatters/status/1 ... 6048094208

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:43 am

There is a reason no one bothered fighting in March in Russia/Ukraine during WWII

Still relevant today

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 2928501760

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:21 am

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:59 am
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... lsgGA&s=19

Randomly interesting thread helping to explain why Russian vehicles are breaking down, which is due to poor maintenance.
There should be more vehicle failures the longer the Russians are fighting.

According to that thread it seems the vehicle simply got stuck in the mud and it was the attempts by Ukrainians to extract it that caused the damage , which includes a lost wheel and a wheel on fire.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:24 am

duncandisorderly wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:16 am
There should be zero vehicle failures whilst fighting a war.
That there are any at all is nuts, that there are so many is literally insane.

Surely there are always vehicle failures in war, more so then in normal conditions. Vehicles fail when not at war so when you are in war conditions liberties are taken and mistakes made.

Sometimes some people have the impression that war is clean cut and mathematically exact. It's only that on paper. In reality it's usually a mess with the troops on the ground having to try and sort it out by adapting to changing situations.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:31 am

The DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED Ukraine government should immediately apply to join NATO. After urgent consideration of their application NATO should accept Ukraine, then instruct Russia to withdraw from the Ukraine within 14 days or face ‘forceful expulsion’.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:33 am

Hipper wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:24 am
Surely there are always vehicle failures in war, more so then in normal conditions. Vehicles fail when not at war so when you are in war conditions liberties are taken and mistakes made.

Sometimes some people have the impression that war is clean cut and mathematically exact. It's only that on paper. In reality it's usually a mess with the troops on the ground having to try and sort it out by adapting to changing situations.

Well, yes and no!

There is a limit to how much you can keep a unit at "full readiness" in the field, and the Western Intelligence agencies (who have been spot on from the start) stated that the Russians had been at that level for a while before they attacked

Add that to the clear and very obvious lack of training and support in the logistics side of things (again, highlighted by intelligence reports and the evidence of our own eyes) and this is the result

Hibsclaret · Post by **Hibsclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:35 am

Lavrov spouting his utter drivel again. Never heard so much horse manure since ww2.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:36 am

Mala591 wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:31 am
The DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED Ukraine government should immediately apply to join NATO. After urgent consideration of their application NATO should accept Ukraine, then instruct Russia to withdraw from the Ukraine within 14 days or face ‘forceful expulsion’.

That would end in a nuclear exchange

Putin in seventy, has a table to meet people he trusts longer than my house and thinks Ukraine is run by Nazis, despite the President and the Vice President being Jewish

I think its safe to say that he's not stable enough to be deal with anything like that, and I must keep stressing, he's can't afford to lose here, he's dead if he doesn't win, because all he's done without anything to show for it would cripple him.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:45 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:36 am
That would end in a nuclear exchange

Putin in seventy, has a table to meet people he trusts longer than my house and thinks Ukraine is run by Nazis, despite the President and the Vice President being Jewish

I think its safe to say that he's not stable enough to be deal with anything like that, and I must keep stressing, he's can't afford to lose here, he's dead if he doesn't win, because all he's done without anything to show for it would cripple him.

Apparently in Russia the step from non-nuclear to nuclear weapons involves many levels of senior political and military personnel who are imo highly unlikely to trigger the end of all European cities. Putin would be overruled and hopefully removed from power due to ‘a mental health crisis’.

If nothing is done immediately thousands of innocent human beings (both Ukrainian and Russian) will die in the coming days/weeks.

Joining NATO and expelling Russia is obviously a high risk strategy but I think it’s the only way out of this horrific mess.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:00 am

Mala591 wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:45 am
Apparently in Russia the step from non-nuclear to nuclear weapons involves many levels of senior political and military personnel who are imo highly unlikely to trigger the end of all European cities. Putin would be overruled and hopefully removed from power due to ‘a mental health crisis’.

If nothing is done immediately thousands of innocent human beings (both Ukrainian and Russian) will die in the coming days/weeks.

Joining NATO and expelling Russia is obviously a high risk strategy but I think it’s the only way out of this horrific mess.

Its a risk that no one can afford to take though

Look at him meeting his generals, they are sat about forty feet away from him, I bet no one has been closer than that for about three years

I don't know what is wrong with him, but something certainly is, and I'm 100% sure that an aggressive move like that (I know, its not aggressive, but he and too many Russians will see it that way) will make him worse

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:13 am

Russia's answer to Joseph Goebbels - (Sergey Lavrov) is certainly trying to ramp things up by saying the next war will be a nuclear one.

jackmiggins · Post by **jackmiggins** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:19 am

The West has clearly not managed to undermine him/it and I severely doubt there are many of his underlings that would now. I don’t believe he has allowed any to get close enough - let’s just hope he has an aneurysm!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:21 am

The key part of Lavrovs speech is that they think their "partners" will come around to the new normal

I have to be honest here, and I think that is a forlorn hope for EU or NATO countries, and their allies like Aus/Japan/South Korea etc, but it might have traction with others

But Russia economy is built on supplying stuff to the West, it will take a lot of time and shed load of cash (which they haven't got) to orientate to other supply hubs (China, India)

Again, its how Russia reacts when everything they are used to stops working and everything starts to cost a fortune

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:22 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:33 am
Well, yes and no!

There is a limit to how much you can keep a unit at "full readiness" in the field, and the Western Intelligence agencies (who have been spot on from the start) stated that the Russians had been at that level for a while before they attacked

Add that to the clear and very obvious lack of training and support in the logistics side of things (again, highlighted by intelligence reports and the evidence of our own eyes) and this is the result

More on this, and I think the thread further up says this

North Ukraine (mud and still winter) - Russia not doing well at all, because they are tied to the roads

South Ukraine (a lot drier) - Russia doing a lot better, because they are not tied to the roads

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:27 am

I’d certainly not be a fan of them joining NATO now. We need to win the war and overthrow Putin, then do that sort of thing. They’ll get the defacto support of NATO countries anyway, so best not to fan the flames.

jos · Post by **jos** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:36 am

Mala591 wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:45 am
Apparently in Russia the step from non-nuclear to nuclear weapons involves many levels of senior political and military personnel who are imo highly unlikely to trigger the end of all European cities.

And yet I read (probably from the BBC or Sky) that not a lot of checks and balances are in place keeping Vlad from pressing the ‘If I can’t win then no one can’ button

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:27 am

How We Got Here, a report from 2019. Executive summary:

The Kremlin’s increasingly assertive foreign policy, including its illegal occupation
of Crimea in 2014 and its intervention in Syria in 2015, came unexpectedly to many
in the West. These events were nonetheless mere extensions of the worldview held by
Russian President Vladimir Putin. This worldview was built on more than two decades of
compounded dissatisfaction with the West as well as Putin’s cumulative experiences in his
ongoing global campaigns to achieve his core objectives: the preservation of his regime,
the end of American hegemony, and the reinstatement of Russia as a global power. Some
of these ambitions were tamed, and others expedited, by external events, yet their core has
remained the same and often at odds with the West. The U.S. believed that a brief period
of non-assertive foreign policy from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s had become the new
norm for Russia. This period was not the norm but an anomaly. Putin’s foreign policy has
always been assertive, similar to Russia’s historic foreign policy. The U.S. may thus find
itself once again surprised by Putin. This paper examines the evolution of Russia’s foreign
policy worldview since the collapse of the Soviet Union to help understand the likely next
priorities of the Kremlin.

Full report here:

https://www.understandingwar.org/report ... -worldview

fatboy47 · Post by **fatboy47** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:44 am

Spijed wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:13 am
Russia's answer to Joseph Goebbels - (Sergey Lavrov) is certainly trying to ramp things up by saying the next war will be a nuclear one.

Not what I saw just now on BBC news.

He was critical of western leaders and media actually hyping up the nuclear threat, and saying that it shouldn't be high on anyone's agenda.

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:47 am

Is there any chance that Liz Truss could be replaced as foreign secretary? She makes me extremely nervous. She has obviously, at some stage, had a charisma bypass which has left her with no sense of tact and diplomacy whatsoever.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:58 am

Reuters saying Japan has cancelled all European flights today after being banned from Russian airspace.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:05 pm

Gostomel Airport footage

https://twitter.com/elintnews/status/14 ... 27876?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:38 pm

Big group of deserting Russian soldiers - haven't eaten or been supplied for four days

Again, notice snow on the ground so its in the north where clearly the Russians are really struggling with logistics

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1 ... 2033974273

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:42 pm

More Russians not very happy, lacking supplies guidance and being asked to sign false papers stating they are not in Ukraine

https://twitter.com/citeam_en/status/14 ... 56945?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:52 pm

The Russian military clearly trying to get deniability of soldiers evolvement before they are returned to Russia and let it be known just what is going on…. Ready prepared with “he was never there!” Documentation.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:55 pm

British intelligence tell Reuters little progress from the North

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1499 ... 23296?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:58 pm

UEFA trying the ‘neutral’ route with Belorussian football participation. Expect another Paralympics and Euro football u-turn later in the day… just who is going to be willing to host matches?

https://twitter.com/henrywinter/status/ ... 75522?s=21

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:06 pm

Estonian cargo ship hits mine near Odessa, several sailors missing.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:14 pm

UN vote breakdown, showing those for, against and abstentions

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 31714?s=21

IanMcL · Post by **IanMcL** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:18 pm

Time for UN resolution to invoke a peace keeping force and Russian return to base (I won't say retreat!)

USA should be lining up and just saying f off or else.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:19 pm

More on Russian Air Forces apparent lack of success

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... performing

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:22 pm

Russians starting to flee to the Balkans ahead of expected Marshall Law being declared in Russia later today.

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1 ... 73798?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:23 pm

IanMcL wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:18 pm
Time for UN resolution to invoke a peace keeping force and Russian return to base (I won't say retreat!)

USA should be lining up and just saying f off or else.

Russia is a permanent member (for WW2), they can Veto any UN mandate.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:28 pm

Never shy with satire, “Have I Got News for You” post re Abramovich sale

https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status ... 55364?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:29 pm

Fans of the "Oh s**t, this is going to get worse really quickly" are probably best avoiding listening to Putins speech to the nation today

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:30 pm

Kyiv Independent

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 32000?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:32 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:29 pm
Fans of the "Oh s**t, this is going to get worse really quickly" are probably best avoiding listening to Putins speech to the nation today

Hardly a surprise he’s ramping up, looking increasingly like Russia is in meltdown.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:49 pm

Belorussian leader pointing to map picture (I mentioned yesterday) showing the Russian plan, including previously unknown plans of attack.

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status ... 80259?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:55 pm

Law firms now wide open if they defend Russian oligarchs. Not only do they risk not getting paid, but insurance guarantees removed for ALL PREVIOUS DEALINGS.

https://twitter.com/guywalters/status/1 ... 14792?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:56 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:32 pm
Hardly a surprise he’s ramping up, looking increasingly like Russia is in meltdown.

Small chance he might not go full Putin I suppose but not likely

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:02 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:38 pm
Big group of deserting Russian soldiers - haven't eaten or been supplied for four days

Again, notice snow on the ground so its in the north where clearly the Russians are really struggling with logistics

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1 ... 2033974273

I think part of this in the North it was/ is mainly conscripts. In the south we will probably see it being mainly professional military gotta watch the build up of the sea bourne invasion force off Odessa I suspect.