Russia Invades

[elwaclaret]

Children with cancer made to flee to Poland for medical treatment. The often neglected consequence of war, a whole generation who will never forget their ordeals.

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/150 ... 14850?s=21

[Claret]

Now Putin offers escape routes for civilians, but they are mainly into Russia!

[Mala591]

Apparently Ukraine has wanted to join NATO for (at least) the last four years but some NATO countries (no names mentioned) have been very reluctant (refused them entry) to admit them due to ‘persistently high levels of corruption in the Ukraine economy’.

I’m not criticising Ukraine I’m just trying to understand why they haven’t joined NATO.

[RingoMcCartney]

Some excellent posts from Ringo with the usual response from the wets who make up the majority on this board.

Well done Ringo

Cheers for that, appreciate it.

[CoolClaret]

Polite reminder

This is a thread about the Russian Invasion of Ukraine which, bar a few complete nutters we’re pretty much all in unanimous agreement that it’s unjust and an illegal war.

With the thread meant to contain information about the war and possible ramifications

What it’s not is a debate on the UK’s foreign policy/polarising politics in general which will Ofc get the thread pulled because there’s opposing views and on here always end up in childish attacks on one another.

Please refrain from de-railing the thread and engaging in petty ‘point-scoring’.

Thanks

[RingoMcCartney]

I get the impression that some people just look at the username, and take offence, without actually reading what has been said

Again , thanks for your comment. All I've done is express what I feel the vast vast majority of fair and right minded people see , think and say about the heartbreaking humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine. Resulting in the need for an immediate emergency response and actions for genuine evacuees and refugees from our government.

[Lancasterclaret]

Oh ffs

[RingoMcCartney]

I've made my point so thats me done.

[elwaclaret]

Apparently Ukraine has wanted to join NATO for (at least) the last four years but some NATO countries (no names mentioned) have been very reluctant (refused them entry) to admit them due to ‘persistently high levels of corruption in the Ukraine economy’.

I’m not criticising Ukraine I’m just trying to understand why they haven’t joined NATO.

The current government was swept to power by a massive majority because they promised to clean up corruption. Their efforts were rewarded with updated training and equipment (mainly from Britain).

When the rest of the old Eastern block came in Ukraine (under the former corrupt leader) decided it wasn’t for him. With relations breaking down between East and West members in the East were more interested in building up their defences rather than expanding NATO, while Germany was convinced the future lay in diplomacy. No one believed Russia would risk attacking in Central Europe because it was utter madness… but did not allow for the Madman in Russia. They thought they could continue to appease Russia while concentrating on keeping their eyes on China. The West got it wrong, but not as wrong as Putin has now got it. The speed of the World response has been amazing given how ill-prepared we were for War.

[ClaretTony]

UPDATE:

I don't visit this thread unless I need to in dealing with reported posts and that situation has been getting worse and worse. I just don't have the time to deal with it any longer which is why it has been locked since this morning.

However, someone has volunteered to moderate it which has now allowed me to re-open it.

You know the rules on this thread, you said you would self police it, which you haven't, but we can now try once more and open it.

[elwaclaret]

Brilliant News thanks Tony!

Right folks you heard the gaffer… lets make this a resource that can be enjoyed/studied for generations to come… This is Tomorrows history and we’ve got the chance to make it comprehensive. So please if you don’t like the topic avoid it… its only one thread, please behave.

[bfcmatt]

UPDATE:

I don't visit this thread unless I need to in dealing with reported posts and that situation has been getting worse and worse. I just don't have the time to deal with it any longer which is why it has been locked since this morning.

However, someone has volunteered to moderate it which has now allowed me to re-open it.

You know the rules on this thread, you said you would self police it, which you haven't, but we can now try once more and open it.

Brilliant news, I don't post an awful lot but have followed this discussion closely. I'm not great with things like twitter and this has had some brilliant resources. Always the few that spoil it for the masses.

[elwaclaret]

Code: Select all

Rubble hits a new record low Reuters announce.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1500 ... 25541?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Two weeks of War have undone decades of Russian integration…

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1500 ... 77924?s=21

[ŽižkovClaret]

Apparently Ukraine has wanted to join NATO for (at least) the last four years but some NATO countries (no names mentioned) have been very reluctant (refused them entry) to admit them due to ‘persistently high levels of corruption in the Ukraine economy’.

I’m not criticising Ukraine I’m just trying to understand why they haven’t joined NATO.

Pretty ironic really, as Czech Republic is a NATO member, however we have sizeable amounts of corruption, with persistent allegations dogging several members of the previous government.

[duncandisorderly]

Brilliant to reopen it, Tony, thank you.
I've found this utterly invaluable so really appreciate it.

We have certainly tried to self police, although I obviously don't know if there's had to be a load of posts removed or anything. I think to get to 50 pages with only two temporary locks is pretty good going for this messageboard, and the wider internet in general.

So here's to elwa, Tsar, Vegas and Lancaster - drown me in war info, boys!

[elwaclaret]

Pretty ironic really, as Czech Republic is a NATO member, however we have sizeable amounts of corruption, with persistent allegations dogging several members of the previous government.

Thing is the Czech’s came in as the wall came down, Ukraine at the time was not interested (previous incombant). In the last four years NATO has been integrating rather than recruiting, and most Western countries considered diplomacy as the way forward… and were played by Putin.

[Caballo]

Thanks for reopening, please everyone be sensible. This is my primary resource for what's going on as I don't have the time nor inclination to trawl twitter and Instagram.

Lancaster,
I've previously berated twitter as a cesspool and each time you've maintained it has positives too. This is being demonstrated to me at the moment.

[gtclaret]

Thanks for keeping the thread open Tony, it's really helpful for the techno idiots like me who don't use twitter. I don't post on the thread because I don't know enough, only what I see and read. I don't understand why there isn't an internationally agreed way of sorting out disagree ments and differences rather than war which murders people who are not involved

[elwaclaret]

This one is a BIG deal… often considered the loosest cannon in NATO due to long ties to Russia combined with a right leaning leadership - Hungary has laid their cards on the table and it is NATO and the West where they see as their future.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1500 ... 77250?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Thanks for reopening, please everyone be sensible. This is my primary resource for what's going on as I don't have the time nor inclination to trawl twitter and Instagram.

Lancaster,
I've previously berated twitter as a cesspool and each time you've maintained it has positives too. This is being demonstrated to me at the moment.

You get out what you put in Caballo

Its a fantastic resource when you have a following list that is full of experts (thats actual experts, rather than hit and hope amateurs like me!)

[elwaclaret]

You get out what you put in Caballo

Its a fantastic resource when you have a following list that is full of experts (thats actual experts, rather than hit and hope amateurs like me!)

Over modesty from one of our Bachelors of History, folks.

[Lancasterclaret]

This is the issue the Russians are really struggling with

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 1544752129

Essentially the front is too big to control, so the Ukrainians can push squads (maybe 10-15 people, couple of light infantry support weapons, a SAM, and some anti-vehicle ordnance (RPG etc) and they can ambush the Russian supply lines

The Russians haven't got the troops to cover the areas, and if they cover each convoy with a helicopter, then the SAM will take it out, and they don't have the helicopters for that

And when they go for one big convoy so they can protect it, you get 60 km long traffic jams ie north of Kyi'v

I'm not sure how they sort that

[ALP]

Thanks for reopening the thread Tony.

Posters, please, please, please agree to disagree without personal insults; we are in a changed world and should all be respectful of others opinions, whatever they are.

I'm not posting a lot, if anything on here, but am finding some very informative stuff that I'd never be able to find otherwise.

Thanks all, and as above, be respectful as there's enough shite going on over in Ukraine.

[elwaclaret]

UK Defence Journal looking at the seeming poor show by Russia in dominating Ukrainian airspace.

https://twitter.com/ukdefjournal/status ... 42952?s=21

[Lowbankclaret]

Anonymous hacks Russian state TV to show war footage from Ukraine


Not sure if that link is going to work.
However Anonymous the group of international hackers have been waging cyberwar on Russia from day two.

They claim they have shut down Russia’s ability to communicate with its spy Satellites.

They also hacked into 3 Russian TV stations to stream images from the war and messages to the people of Russia.

[Lowbankclaret]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... raine.html

[Billy Balfour]

Putin thought the war would split the 'weak' West and Nato, when in fact the total opposite has happened. It's a massive miscalculation on his part.

[elwaclaret]

Putin thought the war would split the 'weak' West and Nato, when in fact the total opposite has happened. It's a massive miscalculation on his part.

Just a bit. He’s put Russia back thirty years in two weeks.

[Billy Balfour]

Russia is now more isolated than the old Soviet Union. Top leadership, eh.

[Lancasterclaret]

Russia is now more isolated than the old Soviet Union. Top leadership, eh.

But that is why this is so dangerous

Putin and his aides think they just have to "win" and the West will come around and it will all return to normal

I have absolutlely no idea how one comes to that conclusion, but that is the one that they currently have

Its 100% based on a quick war and the West essentially given a fait accompli

Instead, the vaunted Red Army and the VDV have struggled in a way that absolutely no one expected, showing very serious doctrine and maintenance defects that should not be there in a modern army and air force

This is why the situation is so dangerous, all he has left is the strategic rocket forces (nukes) and that is why we have to be so careful about what we do

[Lancasterclaret]

Obviously this list isn't exhaustive, but each vehicle counted on here has a pic attached, so this is a good guide



https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html

[Lowbankclaret]

But that is why this is so dangerous

Putin and his aides think they just have to "win" and the West will come around and it will all return to normal

I have absolutlely no idea how one comes to that conclusion, but that is the one that they currently have

Its 100% based on a quick war and the West essentially given a fait accompli

Instead, the vaunted Red Army and the VDV have struggled in a way that absolutely no one expected, showing very serious doctrine and maintenance defects that should not be there in a modern army and air force

This is why the situation is so dangerous, all he has left is the strategic rocket forces (nukes) and that is why we have to be so careful about what we do

Do you think the dynamic changed somehow .

When Russia annexed Crimea and attacked Ukraine last time it hardly made the news.

Had it not been for the shooting down of MH17. I think we would have not kicked up much fuss and Putin might have taken Ukraine.

I dont know what changed but something has, seeing the demonstrations across the western world is amazing.

[JarrowClaret]

I’m not sure that the south has been all that successful if honest but has certainly seemed to have more success than the north.

Some possible/ likely reasons

1. The ground much more firm in the South than in the North
2. Mainly conscripts in North the fact it is mainly Naval soldiers in the south means they are mostly professional. Motivation clearly different
3. Equipment maybe better maintained in the South some of the stuff captured around Kyiv has had obvious maintenance issues (oil leaking from wheel hubs cheap/ flat tyres etc)
4. Whilst I think there has been some ground for time going, I read quite early on that the ground outside of crimea was very open so perfect for Russias Tanks and air to ground aircraft SU 25 etc. so it was expected that the Ukrainians would give up all that anyway as they would have been torn to shreds if they hadn’t.

That said there success at engaging low level air targets with man pads and Armour with NLAW and Javelin may have negated it not sure.

I posted the above a while ago as possible explanations for the noticeable difference in the North and South of the country.

1 I missed in the South and maybe the South East they already had logistical bases sorted as they were already based there so they haven’t had the same logistics issues as they have had in the North. In the North they had nothing outside of what they had already amassed. I expect they suspected it would be enough.

[bfcjg]

Cheers Tony, as others have asked please keep on the subject , we are doing well there are lots of different opinions amongst us about other topics but those of us with the boards interest at heart and not ones own ego are really gaining some insight into what and why this is happening.

[JarrowClaret]

But that is why this is so dangerous

Putin and his aides think they just have to "win" and the West will come around and it will all return to normal

I have absolutlely no idea how one comes to that conclusion, but that is the one that they currently have

Its 100% based on a quick war and the West essentially given a fait accompli

Instead, the vaunted Red Army and the VDV have struggled in a way that absolutely no one expected, showing very serious doctrine and maintenance defects that should not be there in a modern army and air force

This is why the situation is so dangerous, all he has left is the strategic rocket forces (nukes) and that is why we have to be so careful about what we do

The VDV aren’t really soldiers though more like overpowered Doormen from what I have seen. Big and intimidating but when challenged back don’t have anything to come back with as they don’t have the hardware.

[Lancasterclaret]

The VDV aren’t really soldiers though more like overpowered Doormen from what I have seen. Big and intimidating but when challenged back don’t have anything to come back with as they don’t have the hardware.

Yeah, some massive assumptions made by both Russian and NATO analysts about the capabilities of the Russian army

The improvement in the Ukrainian army from 2014 to 2022 though is astonishing (big US/NATO training input, and a very sensible arm sales program)

[grapidianclaret]

Can I add my thanks for reopening this thread. It gives me a more accurate idea of this war than I get in the USA. Not commenting much to avoid pointless arguing with some posters that I have history arguing with.
Gas(petrol) in the USA has now exceeded its previous high from 13 years ago. USA buys between 2 and 4 percent of its total petrol from Russia, so nowhere near the dependency of Europe on Russian energy(who could ever have predicted!?) We will soon be at $5 per gallon no doubt, but Russia must be cut off from any financial gain to really hammer home the message. No surprise Putin ordered the invasion in winter once the olympics were over.

[gtclaret]

Could it be possible that the Russians are holding their best weapons back, so NATO don't know what they have. If they thought this was going to be easy, they might have thought that the sheer volume of they equipment would be enough

[Vegas Claret]

Could it be possible that the Russians are holding their best weapons back, so NATO don't know what they have. If they thought this was going to be easy, they might have thought that the sheer volume of they equipment would be enough

NATO will know exactly what Russia does and doesn't have (doesn't being the point)

[JarrowClaret]

But that is why this is so dangerous

Putin and his aides think they just have to "win" and the West will come around and it will all return to normal

I have absolutlely no idea how one comes to that conclusion, but that is the one that they currently have

Its 100% based on a quick war and the West essentially given a fait accompli

Instead, the vaunted Red Army and the VDV have struggled in a way that absolutely no one expected, showing very serious doctrine and maintenance defects that should not be there in a modern army and air force

This is why the situation is so dangerous, all he has left is the strategic rocket forces (nukes) and that is why we have to be so careful about what we do

The VDV aren’t really soldiers though more like overpowered Doormen from what I have seen. Big and intimidating but when challenged back don’t have anything to come back with as they don’t have the hardware.

[Lancasterclaret]

Could it be possible that the Russians are holding their best weapons back, so NATO don't know what they have. If they thought this was going to be easy, they might have thought that the sheer volume of they equipment would be enough

No

They have stripped their other military districts for this one, and what they are bringing up as part of the their 2nd echelon (I think jarrowclaret highlighted it with a link) is older, more outdated, and more vulnerable equipment

If they use them in combat, then their losses will just increase due to lack of training and general obsolescence

If Russia are serious about conquering the Ukraine, then they need to declare an operational pause, transfer their best troops to the attack sectors and transfer their worst troops to the rear areas, and massively improve their logistical chain and try to go for a knock out blow with an armoured thrust with massive support

That would also require favourable weather, and would take time to organise, and of course, the logistic hubs that they need for that to work are all still in the hands of the Ukrainians

But I'm not sure they have that sort of time, and it does look like they have forgotten how to fight battles in their own country

[Lancasterclaret]

Btw, if you fancy donating to the appeals to help the Ukrainian civilians, then here is the link

https://www.dec.org.uk/

[Lancasterclaret]

And you have to remember, no one has fought a war like this since Iran-Iraq (I'm discounting Desert Storms because of the sheer differences in quality)

That descended into essentially trench warfare with massed artillery duels and I can see this one going the same way

[elwaclaret]

US grants Exxon first new Oil contract of Bidon’s Premiership, in reaction to shortages brought on by Ukraine and OPEC’s refusal to up production.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1500 ... 11075?s=21

[TsarBomba]

Great to see the thread back. Not been able to post as much as I would have liked, primarily because my last set of shifts were horrendous.

[Vegas Claret]

Great to see the thread back. Not been able to post as much as I would have liked, primarily because my last set of shifts were horrendous.

glad to see you are still here

[Lowbankclaret]

There is a Bloomberg article which sorry I cannot link.

It states the EU is drawing up plans to reduce its use of Russian oil and gas by 80% by the end of the year.

Shame it cannot be done faster but that is fast to be fair.

That will cripple Russia economically.

[RicardoMontalban]

Not sure if there’s been any links to this journalist so far but he seems to be pretty reliable for debunking false information on the web.

The extent that an ‘information war’ is a fully fledged part of this conflict feels pretty incredible. Obviously it’s always been a feature to some extent in conflict, but right now, with the sheer volume of stuff out there, it feels altogether another level.

https://twitter.com/shayan86?s=21

[elwaclaret]

There is a Bloomberg article which sorry I cannot link.

It states the EU is drawing up plans to reduce its use of Russian oil and gas by 80% by the end of the year.

Shame it cannot be done faster but that is fast to be fair.

That will cripple Russia economically.

Good to see Bloomberg back on track, they must have told some of their reporters to give their heads a wobble after they seemed more concerned about the financial impact on the USA than the fact a war had broken out in Europe. US changing their position on Oil Production today will hopefully help get the West on an even keel.