Russia Invades

[Vegas Claret]

I think upping the anti plays into what he wants

Us reacting to him doing shitty things keeps us on the right side of proportional and doesn't allow him to claim with any justification that he's reacting to provocation

I'm not convinced either way, but telling Gucci they can't sell their **** in Moscow doesn't seem to be slowing him down

[elwaclaret]

as maybe, but those sanctions aren't going to immediately affect the thinking of those sitting around the table with him though. We've offered nothing back (that I'm aware of) in terms of being aggressive in a retaliatory action (which to me would be the way to make his generals and decision makes pay more attention in the immediate term). Very fine line to tread obviously, but if Putin wins we are heading to an even darker place imho

UK Sanctions now apply to EVERYONE in both houses of the Duma. Clear indications now that war has turned - Putin appealing for outside mercenaries - DOUBLING of weaponry that is already causing such problems from EU countries.

[KRBFC]

I think upping the anti plays into what he wants

Us reacting to him doing shitty things keeps us on the right side of proportional and doesn't allow him to claim with any justification that he's reacting to provocation

This whole tip toeing scared of what Putin thinks, the weak west. It's quite obvious Putin will justify his actions as retaliation anyway, so why we're quite concerned about that makes zero sense.

[KRBFC]

You seriously think the UKR’s hardware volume is on a par with Russia’s ?. I’ve no idea the volume or battle readiness of Russia ‘s Air Force ( we only get the west’s view) but if it’s even half cocked , the mere notion of defending a city with absolute no control of the skies , doesn’t bare thinking about

to even consider the numbers of Russians v Ukrainians tells me you've no idea, there's no chance the Russians outnumber the Ukrainians. The Russians are a mess, old equipment, getting wiped out with drone strikes, convoy's stuck, their tanks are taking an absolute hammering. It's considerably easier to defend (with more numbers) than it is to takeover.

[Vegas Claret]

This whole tip toeing scared of what Putin thinks, the weak west. It's quite obvious Putin will justify his actions as retaliation anyway, so why we're quite concerned about that makes zero sense.

that's my take on Putin, the more cornered the cat the more it hits out. Glad I'm not the one making these decisions though

[Spijed]

Israel getting involved:
"New: Israeli Prime Minister Bennett told Ukraine President Zelensky he should take Putin's proposal to end war, a senior Ukrainian official said. "Bennett wants us to surrender but we have no intention of doing this", he said."
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1 ... 3902291971

MODERATOR - Sorry for Hijacking post for message to H - keeping an eye on it.

[Vegas Claret]

Israel getting involved:
"New: Israeli Prime Minister Bennett told Ukraine President Zelensky he should take Putin's proposal to end war, a senior Ukrainian official said. "Bennett wants us to surrender but we have no intention of doing this", he said."
https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1 ... 3902291971

that's embarrassing

[Taffy on the wing]

You sound like a puppet, like sleepy Joe. All worried about ''Russian are a nuclear threat'', guess what, the UK and US are a nuclear threat too..... We can push a button just like Putin....

Yes, but he's crazy enough and desperate enough to do it!

[KRBFC]

Yes, but he's crazy enough and desperate enough to do it!

and he needs to be aware, so are we.

[Vegas Claret]

let's just get back to posting the info lads

[Taffy on the wing]

that's embarrassing

Israel cares about its own interests ......end of.......Butt out!

MODERATOR Posters, Please be aware I have seen this post, and have left because of Historical precedents.

[Vegas Claret]

new Sushko tweet..............
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 9VwLRZjGUw

[Lowbankclaret]

I suspect not. Not this time. All reliable reports are suggesting not only is Ukraine now on top, but Putin’s need to appeal for troops from outside Russia almost certainly tells a bigger story.

I know, I swing from thinking they can win to it’s not looking so good.
I live in hope they can prevail. In fact I will pray for them. Poor people.

[Lancasterclaret]

I think President Biden is being very clear here

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... 5091618816

[Vegas Claret]

Poor people.

this, this is what bugs me more than anything

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status ... 3012658177

Potentially more good news

(if read the following threads it basically says this wouldn't be done spontaneously, and is almost certainly with Russian Presidency approval)

Be interesting to see where this ends up

[Lancasterclaret]

More from the expert on tyre damage and logistics

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 6905927681

[elwaclaret]

Dr Caddock-Adams - as Putin allowed for the fact Syrians might find life in Ukraine a little cold?

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 05408?s=21

[RingoMcCartney]

Don't know if it's previously posted but just been said on TV that the Russians have lost another top general who was on the front line. Reporter said it was highly unusual for a third , I think it was , senior Commander in such circumstances.

[elwaclaret]

Don't know if it's previously posted but just been said on TV that the Russians have lost another top general who was on the front line. Reporter said it was highly unusual for a third , I think it was , senior Commander in such circumstances.

See Lancaster’s earlier post. Commander in the East -and some thoughts (I think)

[BERNIEU]

Just donated: https://www.unicef.org.uk/donate/donate ... n-ukraine/

[elwaclaret]

May well have been posted already, but another sign that Russians have no idea how to fight. Infantry advancing in line, on a road, while under fire - at times you have to feel for the grunts.

https://twitter.com/elintnews/status/15 ... 48226?s=21

[conyoviejo]

Belarus to invade Ukraine soon according to reports.

[elwaclaret]

Quite possibly the saddest sight of all

https://twitter.com/spencerguard/status ... 01159?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

...

[Mala591]

Tens of thousands of innocent human beings (both civilians and ‘soldiers’) will die over the next few weeks. May their souls rest in peace.

‘We (NATO) did far too little far too late’ will be the historical lesson learned.

[Vegas Claret]

powerful
https://twitter.com/3TrAmvL026aJRar/sta ... Lv0_yZnU5Q

[Cubanforever]

Is Putins grip at home struggling now....Reading between the lines on some of the news today I hope and think it may be

[Lowbankclaret]

if Belarus joins the invasion of Ukraine, we should invade Belarus and turn it into territory of England.

People should never forget the role Belarus have played in this to date, that absolute scumbag rat Lukashenko should be captured and hung live on TV for the world to celebrate.

Stuff like this will get the thread locked again, please refrain.

[Vegas Claret]

...

[KRBFC]

take a break mate, although your point is valid the last part is in pretty bad taste and you've contributed well to the thread up to now.

Lukashenko is guilty, like Putin but has largely been given a free pass, he should be held responsible and face consequences for his cowardly actions. I will however not debate this further to prevent the topic being deleted.


Moderator - Your sensible posts are as welcome as anyones.

[Lancasterclaret]

Ambush as close range

https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/statu ... 4748850181

[Vegas Claret]

Ambush as close range

https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/statu ... 4748850181

I was just about to post that, crazy

[Taffy on the wing]

Who would want to be in a Tank these days?.......sitting ducks.

[Vegas Claret]

Who would want to be in a Tank these days?.......sitting ducks.

it's truly bizarre indeed

[elwaclaret]

Ambush as close range

https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/statu ... 4748850181

I’m finding hard to understand such levels of incompetence.

[Lowbankclaret]

Ambush as close range

https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/statu ... 4748850181

There has been a lot of talk of bad tactics, but again I would say this is too. Those anti tank missiles are just as effective from much further away. Gives you more chance to escape, get a second missile off.

Very brave , but maybe not so clever.

[elwaclaret]

New York Times: Biden confident America rally through any hardships brought on by Sanctions

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1502 ... 68453?s=21

[elwaclaret]

A few on here were discussing Russia using Crypto earlier this week…

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... 00290?s=21

[elwaclaret]

OTHER NEWS : India ‘accidentally’ fire on Pakistan. Pakistan warns if they prove otherwise there will be repercussions.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1502 ... 03943?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

There has been a lot of talk of bad tactics, but again I would say this is too. Those anti tank missiles are just as effective from much further away. Gives you more chance to escape, get a second missile off.

Very brave , but maybe not so clever.

as you suggest.... https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502 ... KtQEgcccpw

[Lancasterclaret]

There has been a lot of talk of bad tactics, but again I would say this is too. Those anti tank missiles are just as effective from much further away. Gives you more chance to escape, get a second missile off.

Very brave , but maybe not so clever.

2nd video down, someone does get a 2nd missile off, and it hits the only tank that managed to fire back

[Lancasterclaret]

Ukraine has 80% of its combat aircraft operational

That, plus the SAM umbrella is why Russian aircraft can't control the skies

https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1 ... 9032285191

[Lancasterclaret]

Informative thread on where we are now, how desperate Russia is, and how dangerous that might be for an escalation

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/stat ... 4448787459

[Lancasterclaret]

Even the American military assessment had Russia winning in two to three days

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 0439337988

Pretty sure all the armies of the world will be absolutely reshaping how they deal with, well, everything after this

[Spiral]

It's good this thread is being cleaned up because it was turning a bit Friday-Night. There are/were posts suggesting NATO militery intervention, for calling a nuclear bluff, for overthrowing a govt by force etc. Unless someone can convince me of the flaws in the following points, it's best to temper your emotions and remain calm, because hysteria leads to bad decision making. So in a sincere answer to some of the points raised (which appear to have been deleted, but I'll address them anyway)...

1. NATO is a mutual defence organisation. It's not a mutual offense pact, it's a mutual defence pact. It concerns itself with the security of its members, not those members' neighbours. An argument can be made for Ukrainian security and Polish security being associated with and necessary to one another, but in practical terms they are not. There's a reason why NATO leaders have continually reaffirmed their commitment to defending NATO territory should any NATO ally be invaded: it contains to the Ukraine the conflict which has been made inevitable by one man only — Putin. A battlefield intervention by NATO on behalf of a non-member state is guaranteed to be interpreted by so-called "natural enemies" (more than just Russia) as NATO overstepping its self-imposed boundaries and acting as an aggressor. This is not a sentimental position to take, it would be a political necessity for Russia to interpret such a battlefield intervention by NATO on behalf of a non-member as being a recalibration of NATO policy. For the duty he ostensibly has to the security of his country (not that Putin really seems to care for that, but it's convenient for him to pretend to) no Russian leader, no matter who it is, would have political wiggle room to assume otherwise. Every player in the game knows this, which is why intervention is off the table. Note the very important difference between an offensive mobilisation abroad and a defensive mobilisation at home. Moral cases can be made left and right for "doing something" (tell me what, then) but this leads to my second point...

2. Nuclear war. A few assumptions which I assume are held to be true by everyone: Putin is in a corner with only the slightest room to back down; Putin has zero regard for human life, even Russian ones; Putin, it is assumed, has surrounded himself with servants who will carry out his every command; Russia can and will escalate to nuclear war if Putin feels as though he has no escape. (Hitler threw child soldiers at his enemies by the end. Don't think Putin isn't capable of similar such horrors). This is a not a bluff any sane person would call. Despite the horrors we're seeing, which our so-called inaction is argued by some to be allowing it to happen, the people who will suffer the most from nuclear war are the Ukrainians. When people demand we call his bluff, know that it's the Ukrainians who will bear the biggest cost if we end up miscalculating. You're being cheap with other people's lives by being so cavalier. The kind of NATO intervention some on here want to see would be interpreted by Russians as presenting an existential threat to their nation, and the first place to be turned to glass by Russian nukes would be Kyiv. I said it right at the beginning on this war and I stand by it, you defeat Putin by arming Ukraine to the teeth and squeezing Russia so hard economically and politically that the Russians, either the military, the establishment, the wealthy, the common people themselves or a combination of all, solve this problem for us. Which leads to...

3. Regime change. Assassination is impossible. Take that off the table. But no leader, no matter how tyrannical or despotic, can survive without the support of the army and the police. A significant NATO presence in the Ukraine would inevitably spook both, and they along with common Russian citizens would naturally rally around Putin and the flag. Just imagine if the shoe was on the other foot. You believe your govt is full of $hit and that the so-called enemy is nowhere near the threat the govt make them out to be. But you're living under a dictator, so you keep your head down, do as you're told etc. Now the so-called enemy crosses borders it said it never would cross and has weapons aimed at you. It's human nature at that point to rally around the $hit govt, because it turns out they might not have been lying after all. Indeed, this is how Putin has accumulated power over the years, by inflating (lying about) the threat we pose to Russia. NATO intervention in Ukraine validates his rhetoric, legitimises his dictatorial rule, strengthens his power base, puts the world at severe risk of nuclear war, and most importantly, exposes the possibility for him to completely unload on Ukraine with nuclear weapons in an act of paranoid madness. Helping the Ukrainians fight this one on their own with all the support we can give them — political and economic support, weapons, intelligence — while isolating Russia from the world, alienating Putin and his enablers and letting him bear the consequences of this invasion alone, will see him relegated to obscurity. Anything else more interventionist is far too dangerous for everyone, especially Ukraine.

All of what we're witnessing is beyond horrible, no doubt, but some of you really need to calm down a bit. When you say "do more" or wring your hands about us "doing nothing" you need to understand that that "more" you want us to do most likely will be more fatal. The images you're seeing are understandably giving you a bloodthirst, but you're not thinking straight. We could have had this exact conversation during all other proxy wars fought in the last seventy years. We never fire on Russians, they never fire on us. We're all still here able to talk about it because of this very principle.

[KRBFC]

What exactly is the punishment for Russian soldiers turning around and heading home?

They're just sat waiting to die in vehicles, taking an absolute battering.

[Lancasterclaret]

It is well worth saying that Russia can't win

If it absolutely keeps attacking Ukraine to try to disprove that, then the damage itself suffers is worse

We don't need to intervene

President Biden has it absolutely right

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1502353759455821833

[GodIsADeeJay81]

What exactly is the punishment for Russian soldiers turning around and heading home?

They're just sat waiting to die in vehicles, taking an absolute battering.

Potentially the comeback for deserting would mean action taken against their families.

It's a rock and a hard place for them really.

[elwaclaret]

What exactly is the punishment for Russian soldiers turning around and heading home?

They're just sat waiting to die in vehicles, taking an absolute battering.

One or two… far better to hand themselves to the Ukrainians are claim they were caught. If they all did it Putin is cooked from within.