Russia Invades

[bfcjg]

Couple of updates.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/report-drunk- ... 18057.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-62717569

[bfcjg]

A tragic accident....happens all the time.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-energ ... 15723.html

[Elbarad]

A tragic accident....happens all the time.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-energ ... 15723.html

Now, now. Just like all of those folks involved in the Clinton's Whitewater scandal, it's just a coincidence that they're all committing suicide! Just kidding before someone turns this into a political argument!

[NewClaret]

A tragic accident....happens all the time.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-energ ... 15723.html

Given all the recent events, I’d imagine he was hanging out of a window to smoke a cigarette and accidentally fell out!

Jokes aside though- this is exactly why we’re unlikely to see any real uprising against the war in Russia and terribly sad that someone who did/said the right thing has met this fate.

[upanatem]

An interesting podcast summary of the war (sorry, military exercise) in Ukraine from the start, 6 months ago, to the present:

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/media/pod ... ign=buffer

[Lancasterclaret]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/f ... id-to.html

Everyones favourite destroyed vehicle counter with a fresh perspective on German arms deliveries to Ukraine

[Lowbankclaret]

Putin cuts the gas to Europe with no end date for it being back on.
Citing the pipeline explosion that happened yesterday.
Europe said to run out of gas in November.

[NewClaret]

Putin cuts the gas to Europe with no end date for it being back on.
Citing the pipeline explosion that happened yesterday.
Europe said to run out of gas in November.

*Russia said to run out of money in November.

[Lancasterclaret]

Putin cuts the gas to Europe with no end date for it being back on.
Citing the pipeline explosion that happened yesterday.
Europe said to run out of gas in November.

The news are reporting that the European Winter stocks are 80% full already

I'm not sure what you are saying there is right

[Hipper]

*Russia said to run out of money in November.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-60783874

[CrosspoolClarets]

Apparently Nordstream 1 has been damaged and is offline after the Russians threw it out of a hospital window

[Lancasterclaret]

Apparently Nordstream 1 has been damaged and is offline after the Russians threw it out of a hospital window

Big increase in sales of Bungalows to Russian oligarchs

[bfcjg]

The West can get gas from within and elsewhere whilst hopefully going greensand nuclear in the long term, what will Russia do with all the unsold gas ? Ukraine has untapped vast reserves that can be expanded and brought to Europe, Putin really has shot himself in the foot. Also when the West doesn't need the gas/oil the lants are prime targets for missile attacks.
I read a report earlier about Russian soldiers not getting paid,moral consequently rock bottom, there will be an uprising hopefully soon.
BBC News - No going back to reliance on Russian gas from here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62779909

[bfcjg]

Screenshot_20220904-114507_Samsung Internet.jpg (555.4 KiB) Viewed 3240 times

[LeadBelly]

Apparently Nordstream 1 has been damaged and is offline after the Russians threw it out of a hospital window

No, It fell out of the window - honestly.

[LeadBelly]

The news are reporting that the European Winter stocks are 80% full already

I'm not sure what you are saying there is right

The 80% refers to how full the storage facilities are. Even if they were 100% full, that won't cover anything like Europe's winter demand, possibly it'd get Europe half way through winter.
UK hasnt recently had huge gas storage facilities. The biggest facility, Rough (under the north sea), was closed 2017/18 and only just recently been re-opened (because of the current fears on ongoing supplies).

[elwaclaret]

NEW VOICE OF UKRAINE: The Ukrainian Air Force has struck the Russian invaders across southern Ukraine, carrying out more than 40 sorties in one day to support the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive there, Ukraine’s General Staff said.


https://twitter.com/newvoiceukraine/sta ... fFI3Gl8feg

[Hipper]

The West can get gas from within and elsewhere whilst hopefully going greensand nuclear in the long term, what will Russia do with all the unsold gas ? Ukraine has untapped vast reserves that can be expanded and brought to Europe, Putin really has shot himself in the foot. Also when the West doesn't need the gas/oil the lants are prime targets for missile attacks.
I read a report earlier about Russian soldiers not getting paid,moral consequently rock bottom, there will be an uprising hopefully soon.
BBC News - No going back to reliance on Russian gas from here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62779909

What will Russia do with it's unsold gas? Apparently it's been burning a lot of it off but eventually they will find markets for it like with oil as mentioned in the BBC link above:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-60783874

I would guess that those countries buying cheaper Russian oil will no longer need oil from their previous sources which we can then source. With gas it's a bit different because of the transport methods, mostly pipelines with some shipping. I dare say new pipelines can be built and ships adapted.

This article also hints at a change in the economy at large which is currently very US dollar orientated. What impact that will have in the medium to long term I'm sure experts will attempt to tell us.

[elwaclaret]

What will Russia do with it's unsold gas? Apparently it's been burning a lot of it off but eventually they will find markets for it like with oil as mentioned in the BBC link above:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-60783874

I would guess that those countries buying cheaper Russian oil will no longer need oil from their previous sources which we can then source. With gas it's a bit different because of the transport methods, mostly pipelines with some shipping. I dare say new pipelines can be built and ships adapted.

This article also hints at a change in the economy at large which is currently very US dollar orientated. What impact that will have in the medium to long term I'm sure experts will attempt to tell us.

I believe Russia has lost a lot in the Crypto crash as they were using it to undermine the Dollar, quite successfully until that.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/ ... 8598154242

Gas storage in Europe stats, including a rather worrying one for the UK

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Ukraine_AF/status/1 ... 0003814403

2 x Ukrainian planes - Su-24?

[Lowbankclaret]

https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/ ... 8598154242

Gas storage in Europe stats, including a rather worrying one for the UK

It’s going to be a worry. In a couple of months.

[LeadBelly]

It’s going to be a worry. In a couple of months.

We've generally lacked the gas storage capacity of much of Europe but the position was much worsened when Rough storage facility was closed down (the government refused to subsidise repairs so the owners (Centrica) closed it down c 5 years ago).

On the other hand- we do produce a fair % of our own gas (even export some- mainly to Ireland). Most of our imports are from Norway. Hopefully the Norwegians won't bung a stopper in this winter.

[Lancasterclaret]

We've generally lacked the gas storage capacity of much of Europe but the position was much worsened when Rough storage facility was closed down (the government refused to subsidise repairs so the owners (Centrica) closed it down c 5 years ago).

On the other hand- we do produce a fair % of our own gas (even export some- mainly to Ireland). Most of our imports are from Norway. Hopefully the Norwegians won't bung a stopper in this winter.

Really hope the new PM and the EU can come up with a plan to make sure we share our resources and needs this winter, as I wouldn't fancy our chances of guaranteeing gas supplies from Norway if we decide to be confrontational with the EU (don't want to force the Norwegians to make a choice)

[NewClaret]

Really hope the new PM and the EU can come up with a plan to make sure we share our resources and needs this winter, as I wouldn't fancy our chances of guaranteeing gas supplies from Norway if we decide to be confrontational with the EU (don't want to force the Norwegians to make a choice)

Presumably these arrangements are contractual and binding?

But I would agree that we need to share it out across Europe. I’ve just been reading about Rough. Sounds a shambles. Not sure if I was reading it correctly as the numbers didn’t quite make sense, but it said that it only stores 10 days of the UK’s gas needs!

[NewClaret]

https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/ ... 8598154242

Gas storage in Europe stats, including a rather worrying one for the UK

What jumped out at me was how much higher Germanys consumption is compared to UK - nearly double, when the population isn’t massively larger.

[bfcjg]

The Ukrainians are very ingenious.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-hac ... 21144.html

[Hipper]

What jumped out at me was how much higher Germanys consumption is compared to UK - nearly double, when the population isn’t massively larger.

Of course this refers to just gas consumption. Their balance of energy sources is different to the UK: e.g. Germany doesn't have any nuclear energy. They also have more industry then we do.

One more equal comparison would be 'per capita energy consumption':

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... per_capita

Here it seems in 2014 Germany was 3749 units, UK 2751, Iceland 17583 - it's cold there! Bangladesh 215 in 2013.

[Hipper]

The Ukrainians are very ingenious.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-hac ... 21144.html

I wondered why my house had been blown up.

[NewClaret]

I wondered why my house had been blown up.

Good job you were out down the knocking shop hipper

[Vegas Claret]

not sure if this has been reported or not

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russia-faces- ... 33465.html
More news on the Russian economy. Not good for them.

[box_of_frogs]

https://twitter.com/Ukraine_AF/status/1 ... 0003814403

2 x Ukrainian planes - Su-24?

Close. SU-25 FROGFOOTs.

[Lancasterclaret]

Close. SU-25 FROGFOOTs.

Back in the day (ie when I was a kid with my books on aircraft, tanks and ships), I could identify pretty much every aircraft

Now?

If I don't call it a helicopter I've done well

[JarrowClaret]

Back in the day (ie when I was a kid with my books on aircraft, tanks and ships), I could identify pretty much every aircraft

Now?

If I don't call it a helicopter I've done well

Interesting fact back in the day when I used to do aircraft recce training we just used to know the Russian AC by there NATO designation so in the 90s it was fitter, fishbed, flogger, fulcrum, foxbat, fencer, frogfoot etc. it wasn’t until recently I started paying more attention to the numbers as well, but too late I guess I’ve been out nearly 10 years ha ha.

[JarrowClaret]

I have been following this account on Twitter recently very Russia centric just as the others are very Ukraine centric just gives me a different opinion of things:

https://twitter.com/rwapodcast/status/1 ... liiJos3G8A

Clearly the truth lies somewhere in between what that person says and what the Ukrainians says.

[Lowbankclaret]

I read a lot of stuff on Twitter and watch lots of utube stuff.
My impression is Russia has shot its bolt, it’s extended everything it’s got.

Hence its gas turn off.

It now wants to do a truce to maintain the ground it’s won, so it can spend 20 years rebuilding its arms to attack again.

The gas turn off is the ultimate poker game bet.

Putin thinks he has 4 aces or a royal flush.

I think he has 2 pairs.

The west could band together to support each other and beat him once and for all.

[jos]

The west could band together to support each other and beat him once and for all.

Or the West could carry on and let Ukraine take the beating on our behalf.
The rhetoric can state full support, as long as missiles don’t fly in our direction.

We now have to move from a ‘just in time’ economy to a ‘just in case’ scenario.

I do however agree with you.

[Lancasterclaret]

I think the turning of the gas is the last card he has (apart from the one in which everyone dies)

But its a lot easier to defend then it is to attack, and if Putin is happy to lose gradually (while giving him time to punish the west by an energy crunch) then he can make it difficult for all of us

And its worth noting, any hope that Russian gas and oil companies had that they would be relied upon by the West after this has now gone

[NewClaret]

Yes Lancaster, Putin has royally ****ed Russia over in the long term. It’s so ridiculously short-sighted, it’s unbelievable. Makes me think he might be as ill as rumoured, knowing he won’t have to deal with the consequences of this war and wanting to make a name for himself.

The only route back I could see for them is if he pops his clogs quickly and a responsible leader takes over (no idea how likely this is because I assume his regime have a succession plan?) who withdraws immediately and invests in the rebuilding. So no chance, really.

Wrt where we go from here, I have seen very little information on how well this counter offensive is going or how much land they’re taking back. I imagine a lot rides on it though. If they can win back & hold large parts of the South, and if Russia deployed large amounts of its forces to secure it, you’d imagine they’re in a precarious position elsewhere.

I think the truce/negotiations talk is telling that they want a break and time to regroup & restock ammo from N.Korea! So time to hit them hard, I’d say.

[Hipper]

Good job you were out down the knocking shop hipper

It seems because of sanctions I can no longer access Russian women.

[Hipper]

I think the turning of the gas is the last card he has (apart from the one in which everyone dies)

But its a lot easier to defend then it is to attack, and if Putin is happy to lose gradually (while giving him time to punish the west by an energy crunch) then he can make it difficult for all of us

And its worth noting, any hope that Russian gas and oil companies had that they would be relied upon by the West after this has now gone

My guess is it's more a case of the world economy and that of each country having to adjust. It will take a few years and cause some difficulties but it will be done.

For gas, for example, Russia will sell it somewhere else and we will buy it somewhere else. New infrastructure will be required - pipelines, gas shipping facilities - but it can be done.

In general, sanctions don't usually work well over a long term. The black market will come into play etc.. Look how North Korea or Iran have still managed to progress with their nuclear capabilities despite tough sanctions.

It may even lead to a new world order which will not be so favourable to The West.

[Lancasterclaret]

Obviously very hard to get any info at all from the Kherson or Kharkiv fronts, but this does appear to being reported more widely

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/sta ... 9443364864

[Lowbankclaret]

I am seeing lots of stuff on Twitter this morning, saying lots Russian Soldiers killed overnight and Ukrainian soldiers making a lot of gains.

[Lowbankclaret]

Couple of links.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... vveNt5_5Xg

https://twitter.com/warinukraineyet/sta ... vveNt5_5Xg

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/ ... vveNt5_5Xg

[Lowbankclaret]

And another one.

https://twitter.com/ozkaterji/status/15 ... vveNt5_5Xg

[Lowbankclaret]

Captured equipment from the 1940’s.
Here’s hoping Russia has just about run out of equipment and will be run out of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... vveNt5_5Xg

[Colburn_Claret]

Fingers crossed the Ukraine can keep these pushes going.
I'm surprised they have the manpower to counter on 2 fronts, seeing as the push on Kherson continues, but delighted.

[Lancasterclaret]

Pics of a captured Russian Lt-Col on twitter (not sharing because its not right)

You don't start capturing officers of that rank unless you've broken through

[Lancasterclaret]

Fingers crossed the Ukraine can keep these pushes going.
I'm surprised they have the manpower to counter on 2 fronts, seeing as the push on Kherson continues, but delighted.

The front is over 2000 km long, and the Russians have about 200,000 troops

They cannot be strong everywhere