Russia Invades

[Lancasterclaret]

does this mean Wagner now pull out of Ukraine and leave a big(ger) hole ?

The one who weren't involved in the coup sign on with the Russian army

The rest give pardons - if I had to guess, they become part of PMC Wagners very profitable, illegal and downright murderous activities in Africa

[bfcjg]

How will this play out with some of the countries/people within the CSTO who may want to move towards the West or even China ? If it emboldens them to move away from Moscow will Russia have enough troops to keep dissenters in this organisation in line ?.

[Lancasterclaret]

How will this play out with some of the countries/people within the CSTO who may want to move towards the West or even China ? If it emboldens them to move away from Moscow will Russia have enough troops to keep dissenters in this organisation in line ?.

No

Keep saying it on this thread - this is the biggest strategic own goal you will ever see

It would have been bad enough even if Russia had performed better in Ukraine than it has, but the failure of its army, its navy and especially its air force has completely thrown every military/political analyst

And its natural resources of oil and gas are now flowing heavily discounted to India and China who see no reason to pay the proper price for it

[Vegas Claret]

No

Keep saying it on this thread - this is the biggest strategic own goal you will ever see

It would have been bad enough even if Russia had performed better in Ukraine than it has, but the failure of its army, its navy and especially its air force has completely thrown every military/political analyst

And its natural resources of oil and gas are now flowing heavily discounted to India and China who see no reason to pay the proper price for it

I'm not sure the failure of the Air Force came as any surprise tbh

[elwaclaret]

Rob Lee:

It will be interesting to see how the Russian Air Force and Russian soldiers work with Wagner in the future. Wagner's pilots likely knew some of those killed today, and Wagner depends on the Russian Air Force in Ukraine and for operations elsewhere. This is just the beginning.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1672 ... XbpxEsmRVg

[welsbyswife]

Not sure if anyone watched the Adam Curtis doc on the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of Putin. But it was so chaotic that even with a few years of stability you had do doubt whether a lot of Putin's regime was just bluff. And it seems to be. He's looking like what he is now. A thug and a gangster. His time is up.

Also recommend the book Prisoners of Geography and the sequel by Tim Marshall. He basically predicted this would happen years ago.

[Bin Ont Turf]

What a shame.

I was looking forward to a battle of Moscow.

Looks like that piggy eyed c**t has beat the offside trap.

[welsbyswife]

Classic James Bond baddy. Played the hard man but **** off with his tail between his legs at the end.

[Dark Cloud]

Progozhin definitely reminds me of a proper old school James Bond villain which is probably dangerous because he makes me laugh at times when clearly he's armed and crazy!!
I'm thinking that his managed move to Belarus could be seriously bad news for the majority of sensible people in that country (those who openly or otherwise oppose Lukashenko) because Lukashenko will simply allow Wagner to grow there and use them to strengthen his stranglehold on power.

[jtv]

My worry is that Lukashenko will use Wagner to attack Ukraine from the north.

[StayingDown4Ever]

When making calls in unprecedented circumstances, it is impossible to give a definitive answer.
Nobody knows what the outcome will be, the whole thing is on a knife edge, but the natural selection is that Putins' army is bigger than Wagner, therefore you would expect him to win out. The unknown factor is that Wagner are far more battle hardened, far more driven, than the troops they are against, add also how many of those troops Putin will be relying on, are just plain miffed at the way this whole conflict has been handled.

I'm sure you didn't intend it, but your short statement comes across as a dig, in the good old Claret Mad fashion, at a contributor who has done more than most to keep us informed of what is happening in Ukraine. It wasn't called for.

I do admire his commitment to keep posters up to date but that claim couldn’t have been any further from the truth as to what actually happened.

[Colburn_Claret]

I do admire his commitment to keep posters up to date but that claim couldn’t have been any further from the truth as to what actually happened.

'When making calls in unprecedented circumstances, it is impossible to give a definitive answer'.


There is no truth, why can't you get it.
We are witnessing something that has never happened before, nobody could predict the outcome, nobody could foresee the damp squib it turned out to be. Nobody can reliably predict the aftershock that this will have created in the Kremlin, but it more than likely will.

To jump on people's statements, and call them out for not having a crystal ball is pathetic. So what, just let it lie, it doesn't matter, or should I say it doesn't matter to any reasonable person.

[JarrowClaret]

I stayed quiet during the supposed coup as it was very odd and I couldn’t for the life of me work out the true motive still can’t if honest. Part of me thought it was a trick to lull the Ukrainians into false sense of security and to lure out their main thrust so that the Russians could destroy it. The advance was way too easy although forces being in Ukraine would have made it easier than it would have normally been I guess.

There is no winner though if what is reported is true clearly the Russian federation is at a juncture and it would not surprise me to see the end of Putin in the next 4-6 months. Prigozen is effectively a dead man walking and his Wagner troops lost with some signing with the Russian MOD and others very angry with the end.

Is there a twist to this maybe? The coming days/ weeks will tell us all very very odd!

[RicardoMontalban]

I do admire his commitment to keep posters up to date but that claim couldn’t have been any further from the truth as to what actually happened.

That’s only if you’re viewing this as the conclusion of the episode. It isn’t.

There’s no doubt that this isn’t finished, and you have to imagine that when we look back at the end of Putin’s reign, the events of this weekend will be significant. Putin’s power is based on control and a ruthless response to anyone who challenges it. That Priogzhin still walks, albeit in the direction of the Belorussian border does not alter the fact that he now looks weaker than he ever has and this is now an extremely dangerous time for him. He’s not used to making compromises.

And before we get giddy about the possible beginning of the end for Putin, this is not some sort of popular uprising with dreams of a democratic future in Russia. These are people further to the right than Putin who think Russia has been far too half arsed with the Ukrainian conflict and should be waging total war.

[StayingDown4Ever]

'When making calls in unprecedented circumstances, it is impossible to give a definitive answer'.


There is no truth, why can't you get it.
We are witnessing something that has never happened before, nobody could predict the outcome, nobody could foresee the damp squib it turned out to be. Nobody can reliably predict the aftershock that this will have created in the Kremlin, but it more than likely will.

To jump on people's statements, and call them out for not having a crystal ball is pathetic. So what, just let it lie, it doesn't matter, or should I say it doesn't matter to any reasonable person.

Then maybe he shouldn’t have given such a bold prediction.

[bfcjg]

Some articles I have read indicated that the average Russian soldier wasn't that interested in fighting to protect Putin and Moscow, maybe because most of the cannon fodder are from the regions and don't have loyalty to anything other then their lives.

[BigAlClaret]

My worry is that Lukashenko will use Wagner to attack Ukraine from the north.

If Wagner can rattle the Kremlin so easily I don't think they will be readily controlled by Lukashenko.If anything we may be looking at his new masters

[Lancasterclaret]

I do admire his commitment to keep posters up to date but that claim couldn’t have been any further from the truth as to what actually happened.

Its an opinion mate

Based on how most coups end

This has certainly been a very unusual ending to a coup*

*no way it ends here

[Lancasterclaret]

Then maybe he shouldn’t have given such a bold prediction.

Why are you so bothered about me making an opinion based guess on the available evidence and the evidence of coups all over the world?

Its what people do all the time

I'm not even sure what has gone on here after what happened last night, and I don't think anyone really is either

The only conclusion you can really draw is that Russia is a seriously messed up state with its essential state institutions looking even weaker than they were before, and that might be good news in the short term for Ukraine, but its not good news going forward

One conclusion you can certainly draw from that is that Putin doesn't survive defeat in Ukraine, which is certainly something that you imagined he'd be able to spin before the past 48 hours

[Lancasterclaret]

My worry is that Lukashenko will use Wagner to attack Ukraine from the north.

I'm not sure if any Wagner fighters are going there - isn't it just Prizoghin?

[Clovius Boofus]

Russia is like a country trapped in the Middle Ages. The king's grip on power is diminishing while various warlords vie for power. The most dangerous one being bought off, for the time being, with Danegeld.

[Claretnick]

I'm not sure if any Wagner fighters are going there - isn't it just Prizoghin?

Has there been any news on what has happened to the remaining leadership of Wagner, in particular Dmitry Utkin who looks a nasty individual.

[Lancasterclaret]

Has there been any news on what has happened to the remaining leadership of Wagner, in particular Dmitry Utkin who looks a nasty individual.

Not seen anything new on him to be honest

[Clovius Boofus]

To show there are no hard feels, have asked Lukashenka to give Prigozhin an office with a view and a large window.

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... 86211?s=20

[TsarBomba]

Russia is like a country trapped in the Middle Ages. The king's grip on power is diminishing while various warlords vie for power. The most dangerous one being bought off, for the time being, with Danegeld.

Absolutely.

Putin is in a substantially weaker position today than he was 48-72 hours ago. The cult of personality cultivated over the years, with images of Putin riding bare chested on horseback, has been smashed.

Prigozhin has proven Putin can be got at. Every PMC, Oligarch, and Republic, certainly those in the Far East, will be weighing up their options and allegiances.

China is also waiting in the wings and watching closely.

Despite Prigozhin doing a 180 yesterday, in a matter of days the break up of the Russian Federation has been accelerated by years.

[Dark Cloud]

My worry is that Lukashenko will use Wagner to attack Ukraine from the north.

Well he'll certainly use it to bolster his position and (allegedly) extremely unpopular iron grip on power and surpress any semblance of opposition and that's bad news for the general population of Belarus unfortunately.

[Spijed]

Absolutely.

Putin is in a substantially weaker position today than he was 48-72 hours ago. The cult of personality cultivated over the years, with images of Putin riding bare chested on horseback, has been smashed.

Prigozhin has proven Putin can be got at. Every PMC, Oligarch, and Republic, certainly those in the Far East, will be weighing up their options and allegiances.

China is also waiting in the wings and watching closely.

Despite Prigozhin doing a 180 yesterday, in a matter of days the break up of the Russian Federation has been accelerated by years.

Is the situation much different now compared to the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991?

[AlargeClaret]

I wonder how long Shoigu lasts after this debacle ? Though he seems to been around the top brass for seemingly ever . Wasn’t there a stage when Putin had to step down and be Prime minister ? I seem to remember him being very visible even back then .

[ecc]

A couple of things.

Sorry if already posted.

Just read in the Italian media (quoting The Washington Post and The New York Times) that both Washington and Moscow were aware of the March on Moscow more than 24 hours before it started. Just when they found out is unknown and, one might say, irrelevant.

Do people actually believe Prigozhin will remain in Belarus?

[Taffy on the wing]

Then maybe he shouldn’t have given such a bold prediction.

Oh, just shut up!

[Gerry Hattrick]

Do people actually believe Prigozhin will remain in Belarus?

Can't think of any reason they'll go to the expense of burying him anywhere else.

[elwaclaret]

Oh, just shut up!

He’s just a wind up merchant, who gets off on creating disruption… I find it best not to engage this poster on ANY thread he appears.

[TsarBomba]

https://twitter.com/warmonitors/status/ ... Gkg4Pp-4vg

[summitclaret]

From Sky News just now and I concur.

Wagner mutiny may have been an 'orchestrated event', analyst says
The brief mutiny led by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin may have been an "orchestrated event", a global affairs analyst has said.

Michael Bociurkiw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, also told Sky News that the exile of Mr Prigozhin to Belarus may mask future "lethal" events.

He said: "We cannot dismiss the possibility that this was actually an orchestrated event by the Kremlin - perhaps to do some house cleaning of top officials, but also to test the loyalty of people in the military, of other officials."

Mr Bociurkiw went on: "I cannot see Mr Prigozhin riding off into the sunset on a tractor in Belarus, or digging potatoes there, or heading off into the jungle in Africa somewhere.

"It all ended a little too fast and a little too tidy for my liking."

[Clovius Boofus]

I don't buy that. Too many variables and things could have quickly gone wrong.

[beddie]

When I heard an agreement had been reached I immediately thought of it being orchestrated and still do.

[Colburn_Claret]

From Sky News just now and I concur.

Wagner mutiny may have been an 'orchestrated event', analyst says
The brief mutiny led by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin may have been an "orchestrated event", a global affairs analyst has said.

Michael Bociurkiw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, also told Sky News that the exile of Mr Prigozhin to Belarus may mask future "lethal" events.

He said: "We cannot dismiss the possibility that this was actually an orchestrated event by the Kremlin - perhaps to do some house cleaning of top officials, but also to test the loyalty of people in the military, of other officials."

Mr Bociurkiw went on: "I cannot see Mr Prigozhin riding off into the sunset on a tractor in Belarus, or digging potatoes there, or heading off into the jungle in Africa somewhere.

"It all ended a little too fast and a little too tidy for my liking."

Prepare for the worst is the best advice, even if it doesn't happen.
I would expect an attack from Belarus, and just hope it doesn't happen. At least, the defences will have been readied for a long time.

[Claretnick]

This makes worrying reading, hopefully too much overthinking going on!
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 26785?s=20

[jos]

This makes worrying reading, hopefully too much overthinking going on!
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 26785?s=20

What this event has taught me is much of those who claim (or have appeared to be) in the know about this conflict have made assumptions on twitter that have shown that they are in fact clueless!

[elwaclaret]

OsintTechnical:

Now confirmed, Wagner forces managed to down the Russian IL-22M airborne command post RA-75917 yesterday.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

[AfloatinClaret]

...*no way it ends here

The problem I forsee for Prigozhin now is long term personal safety: Belarus is Vlad's backyard so that doesn't strike me as a secure country to retire to, but where else could he go and not find himself arrested for war crimes or similar?

[Lancasterclaret]

I cannot stress this enough

Igor Susko is not a reliable source, and hasn't been for months

[frankinwales]

Thanks as always Lancs...

Good news if the last thing is untrue.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 2570774529

Lots of people wondering just how realistic it is that the compromise agreed over the weekend can possibly hold

[HahaYeah]

This makes worrying reading, hopefully too much overthinking going on!
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 26785?s=20

Prigozhins got the nukes.

I've seen a few Igor Sushko links on here lately.

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA:

Deputy Gurulyov stated that the #Wagner mercenaries will definitely bear responsibility for the downed aircraft and the dead soldiers of the Ministry of Defense.

"There is a law of the Russian Federation. Our military personnel died, they died from the blows of specific individuals. Who gave the command, who launched the rocket? Therefore, be that as it may, no matter who runs away and no matter where they are, I believe that the Investigative Committee will thoroughly deal with this issue and make a decision," said Gurulev, a member of the State Duma Defense Committee.

Earlier, he called on #Prigozhin and the commander of the Wagner Group, #Utkin, to shoot themselves and called them traitors.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

[elwaclaret]

OSINTdefender:

Russian Sources are stating that Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu is currently under a form of “House Arrest” by the FSB pending an Investigation into his Leadership within the MoD and the Theft of Military Funding, Sources believe that Major Announcements regarding charges in the Chain-of-Command and General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces are expected sometime today, June the 26th or this week.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... XbpxEsmRVg

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent:

There are two settlements called Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast. The liberated one sits near the administrative border with the neighboring Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... XbpxEsmRVg

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status ... 5864157184

This is pretty crucial - the Russians keep reproducing the 2 x Leopards, 1 x Bradley that were knocked out three weeks ago from different angles and claiming that is new damage

Nothing says "this is all we've got on the modern Western stuff" more than this

Clearly a one off, and it does say a lot about how the Russians are relying on a mass of disinformation sites to spread this kind of stuff to people who want to believe it

Also worth mentioning, this is now Ukrainian territory, so despite this, the area has been recaptured by Ukraine, and at least one Leopard is repairable

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/russianforces/statu ... 8013782026

The sort of stuff that Sushko is coming out

Its apparently not even an a correct picture of the base he claims Wagner captured, which I think is a pretty good sign that its ********