Russia Invades

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 2:48 pm

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 8758986753

Russia announces that Wagner will still operate in Africa under Russian "blessing"

I guess the six aircraft/helicopters and their crews that Wagner shot down over the weekend don't really count

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 2:50 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Jun 26, 2023 2:37 pm
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status ... 5864157184

This is pretty crucial - the Russians keep reproducing the 2 x Leopards, 1 x Bradley that were knocked out three weeks ago from different angles and claiming that is new damage

Nothing says "this is all we've got on the modern Western stuff" more than this

Clearly a one off, and it does say a lot about how the Russians are relying on a mass of disinformation sites to spread this kind of stuff to people who want to believe it

Also worth mentioning, this is now Ukrainian territory, so despite this, the area has been recaptured by Ukraine, and at least one Leopard is repairable

I follow a gent called Denys Davidov on telegram, he puts loads of stuff on there every day, plus a video of any move,ent in the military map. I seem to remember on one of his videos, he said they had already been recovered and were back in Poland being fixed.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 2:52 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Jun 26, 2023 2:50 pm
I follow a gent called Denys Davidov on telegram, he puts loads of stuff on there every day, plus a video of any move,ent in the military map. I seem to remember on one of his videos, he said they had already been recovered and were back in Poland being fixed.

I think from what I've read one can be repaired, but one Leopard and the Bradley have been gutted by fire, so they will be write offs

The crucial bit is that apparently all the crews survived, and that is a huge advantage over the Russian tanks (which do tend to rather spectacularly blow up)

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 4:02 pm

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673341974882004994

Prigozhin explains his reasons and what he wanted to achieve from his, er, "coup"

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 5:34 pm

the one take I got from the whole coup saga was that the Minister of Defense and the leader of the armed forces were essentially the main targets and the root cause of the whole thing. Therefore, I can see Putin having a very close look at those two and we might see some ramifications in that area of the Russian leadership relatively soon.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 6:20 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Mon Jun 26, 2023 5:34 pm
the one take I got from the whole coup saga was that the Minister of Defense and the leader of the armed forces were essentially the main targets and the root cause of the whole thing. Therefore, I can see Putin having a very close look at those two and we might see some ramifications in that area of the Russian leadership relatively soon.

They were the main targets but only the root cause as far as Prigozhin is concerned. The other main mercenary group, the Chechens, seemed to be on the MoD's side.

Putin though, until now at least, has favoured the status quo so much so that the MoD were trying to reign in the powers of these mercenary groups. He certainly did with his speech on Saturday talking of traitors and mutiny.

Maybe Putin has paid too much attention to Shoigu and Gerasimov but he's stuck with them despite everything. Maybe there are no obvious replacements.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:07 pm

Hipper,
but he, Prigozhin, has put the spotlight firmly on them though, therefore I think Putin has a lot of food for thought now, since his "Special Operation" isn't going that well and they are the two in charge of that, there's a lot of evidence and incentive to change now, not right now but soon! As always just IMO and some thoughts regarding the whole subject

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:15 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:07 pm
Hipper,
but he, Prigozhin, has put the spotlight firmly on them though, therefore I think Putin has a lot of food for thought now, since his "Special Operation" isn't going that well and they are the two in charge of that, there's a lot of evidence and incentive to change now, not right now but soon! As always just IMO and some thoughts regarding the whole subject

The Special Operation is 100% Putins brainchild though

I don't know if you remember seeing the videos before the conflict, but Putin was so sure it would succeed that he was everywhere associated with it

According to reports, he ignored any advice that it might not be as easy as it sounds and completely failed to prepare the country and the armed forces for the possibility of even a war

Putin can try to change the narrative, but everything in Russia stems from him, and everyone knows it

Its a real problem for him, especially as what happened over the weekend just highlighted to everyone just how dysfunctional the Russian system is when its put under stress

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:25 pm

LC
I know very well, it's why I put it in the rabbit ears to make it sarcastic, clearly I failed with that!

I believe you, I and virtually everyone else knows it's all down to Putin but he's not totally stupid and does have subordinates who are taxed with certain things, clearly they have failed, therefore since Putin (as we know) can't be seen to be failing needs to replace them, just a thought
.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:35 pm

KateR wrote: ↑
Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:25 pm
LC
I know very well, it's why I put it in the rabbit ears to make it sarcastic, clearly I failed with that!

I believe you, I and virtually everyone else knows it's all down to Putin but he's not totally stupid and does have subordinates who are taxed with certain things, clearly they have failed, therefore since Putin (as we know) can't be seen to be failing needs to replace them, just a thought
.

Yes, they have failed as well, but that is because of the way Russia is run - corruption is endemic, infighting is encouraged etc etc

And Putin is only there as the "strongest of the strong", he can't sack people just because the leader of a rebellion tells him to, that looks far too weak

Clovius Boofus · Post by **Clovius Boofus** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 10:08 am

Brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/16 ... nXnyA&s=19

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 10:57 am

A useful BBC summary:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66013532

Foshiznik · Post by **Foshiznik** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 12:37 pm

Ukrainian Airborne forces have made small advances east from the village of Krasnohorivka, near Donetsk city, which sits on the old Line of Control.

This is one of the first instances since Russia’s February 2022 invasion that Ukrainian forces have highly likely recaptured an area of territory occupied by Russia since 2014.

Recent multiple concurrent Ukrainian assaults throughout the Donbas have likely overstretched Donetsk People’s Republic and Chechen forces operating in this area.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 12:49 pm

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... 8023618560

Think we've got the official Russian propaganda message about the mutiny here

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 2:04 pm

There were rumours of a bridgehead over the dnipro near Kherson yesterday though not sure if that was more a raid as bringing over the armour would be quite a task .

TsarBomba · Post by **TsarBomba** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 2:49 pm

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑
Tue Jun 27, 2023 2:04 pm
There were rumours of a bridgehead over the dnipro near Kherson yesterday though not sure if that was more a raid as bringing over the armour would be quite a task .

I read early on that the Ukrainians managed to get 3 tanks across.

Sky News are saying that the Ukrainians have managed to hold the bridgehead, and a Russian counter attack has failed.

The Russians will have to decide whether to divert more troops there, but leave an area of Southern Ukraine, perhaps around Tokmak, a little less secure.

The Russians are getting stretched, and Ukraine are merely waiting for somewhere along the line to ping.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 3:04 pm

TsarBomba wrote: ↑
Tue Jun 27, 2023 2:49 pm
I read early on that the Ukrainians managed to get 3 tanks across.

Sky News are saying that the Ukrainians have managed to hold the bridgehead, and a Russian counter attack has failed.

The Russians will have to decide whether to divert more troops there, but leave an area of Southern Ukraine, perhaps around Tokmak, a little less secure.

The Russians are getting stretched, and Ukraine are merely waiting for somewhere along the line to ping.

I just don't see how the Ukrainians can support any major advances here

What they are clearly doing is controlling both sides of the Dnipro, so they can raid and ambush all along its length - that will (as Tsarbomba says) force Russia to spread out along it counter it, and that will weaken them elsewhere

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 4:59 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Jun 27, 2023 3:04 pm
I just don't see how the Ukrainians can support any major advances here

What they are clearly doing is controlling both sides of the Dnipro, so they can raid and ambush all along its length - that will (as Tsarbomba says) force Russia to spread out along it counter it, and that will weaken them elsewhere

Perhaps major advances aren't the aim.
Just keep probing where the Russians are weakest, force them to move troops to counter or hold, then push on the area they've just weakened.
It might be a lot slower than the swift advances we witnessed last year, but safer for the Ukrainians, and very draining on the Russian morale.
When the spirit gives up is the time to drive home the advantage.

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Wed Jun 28, 2023 7:06 am

Russian sources like Wargonzo announcing gains on most fronts for UKR this morning .While it’s clearly a slow process
as more artillery is brought up and the supply of armoured vehicles seems very plentiful as does ammo.

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Thu Jun 29, 2023 8:49 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/style/pictured-rus ... 00512.html
Russia using water again.

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Mon Jul 03, 2023 9:50 pm

Wowzers looks to be a nasty (AS90) recognised by the bins either side of the rear door. Whatever hit it and left that crater was big, what a waste to take out 1 gun! Unless they had a lot of ammo on/ around it.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/16 ... CA2SO0u6vg

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Mon Jul 03, 2023 10:54 pm

The US donated Patriot Air Defence system is seemingly protecting Kyiv but the German donated one is being used nearer the front lines and seems to have made a lot of kills - including the Russia air assets shot down over the border in Bryansk in mid May.
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/sta ... 7978354688

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 9:13 am

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1676503590268026883

Russian ammo dump goes up

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 10:30 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Jul 05, 2023 9:13 am
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1676503590268026883

Russian ammo dump goes up

I saw some (fairly distant) vids of the explosion last night. The Russians were claiming civil buildings were attacked (and it may well be that they suffered collateral damage) but the "fireworks" clearly indicated a big lot of ammo had been hit.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 10:33 am

LeadBelly wrote: ↑
Wed Jul 05, 2023 10:30 am
I saw some (fairly distant) vids of the explosion last night. The Russians were claiming civil buildings were attacked (and it may well be that they suffered collateral damage) but the "fireworks" clearly indicated a big lot of ammo had been hit.

This is the thing

The Russians always claim its civilians, or the fault of someone else - nothing they ever do is wrong, or admitted

Yet when they claim stuff like this, most of the media give their claims the benefit of the doubt, rather than going "as you can see from the explosions, it was clearly an ammo dump"

Its not helpful

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:30 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/exiled-wagner ... 24764.html
Does this undermine Putin, has Putin given his approval, are Wagner and the Russian FSB in cahoots, quite intriguing.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 2:45 pm

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/stat ... 5808611328

Thread on evolving tactics by Ukraine to deal with the Russian defensive plan

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 5:58 pm

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 8250960899

More T-55s in Voronezh - have to be on there way to the front

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jul 06, 2023 11:12 am

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 4523738112

A Map that shows the utter pointlessness of this whole war

Look how far Russia has advanced in the Donbass in 1 year

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Thu Jul 06, 2023 5:33 pm

I have been following this Trans soldier in Ukraine for most of the war. They sent her to lobby congress for more weapons and on return made her a Sargent. She has now launched an official media channel . It’s new, expect it to get better with better info on in .
https://youtu.be/zSbJXKC_vw0

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Thu Jul 06, 2023 7:54 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 06, 2023 5:33 pm
I have been following this Trans soldier in Ukraine for most of the war. They sent her to lobby congress for more weapons and on return made her a Sargent. She has now launched an official media channel . It’s new, expect it to get better with better info on in .
https://youtu.be/zSbJXKC_vw0

Problem with the channel is it isn’t going to be unbiased it will be as pro Ukrainian as some of the worst pro Russian channels. I have followed her journey as well very interesting indeed.

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Sat Jul 08, 2023 7:01 pm

Seems UKR forces have now actually reached the 1st line of RUS defences which are 8km from the 2nd line and a further 10km from the main line . RUS channels report huge accumulation of UKR troops at their rearguard and the realisation that the RUS main line will be in full artillery /HIMARS range once the 1st line of defence is breached .
They also report many UKR pin point strikes on arms /fuel
depots .
While these defence lines are clearly well planned it’s obvious RUS don’t have sufficient manpower and ordnance to fully utilise their capabilities.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:34 pm

https://twitter.com/TobiasBillstrom/sta ... 8904022024

Turkey drops its opposition to Sweden being in NATO

Russian strategic failure clear for all to see

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Tue Jul 11, 2023 8:31 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:34 pm
https://twitter.com/TobiasBillstrom/sta ... 8904022024
Turkey drops its opposition to Sweden being in NATO
Russian strategic failure clear for all to see

Isn’t this more a “ I’ll scratch your back” scenario with the alignment of Sweden wanting in NATO and Turkey who’ve had their noses pressed against the EU window for ever finally getting a candidature ? One would imagine the US/EU would prefer Turkey on its own carrot and stick leash rather than on Russia’s ? hence the smoothing of the EU passage .

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jul 11, 2023 11:26 am

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/ ... 4199162881

France to send long range missiles to Ukraine

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Tue Jul 11, 2023 11:32 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 11, 2023 11:26 am
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/ ... 4199162881

France to send long range missiles to Ukraine

Good news as we must have got to the "cant spare any more" point with Storm Shadow. What they are reported as sending are exactly the same arent they? The missile was a joint (UK/Fr) project so presumably just different names for the same thing? Hopefully the aircraft used (Migs?) can carry and fire these just the same.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jul 11, 2023 11:34 am

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 11, 2023 8:31 am
Isn’t this more a “ I’ll scratch your back” scenario with the alignment of Sweden wanting in NATO and Turkey who’ve had their noses pressed against the EU window for ever finally getting a candidature ? One would imagine the US/EU would prefer Turkey on its own carrot and stick leash rather than on Russia’s ? hence the smoothing of the EU passage .

Erdogan is a realist

He knows Turkey getting into the EU is impossible with the rules, but he can get a better deal than he currently has

He's also pledged that the Ukraine-Turkey- Russia grain deal will continue (the one that allows Ukraine to export the grain by sea so that the countries (mainly in Africa) don't suffer food shortages) despite Russia pulling out of it, and he's pledged that the Turkish Navy will escort the ships

He can see what Russia can see, but unlike Russia, he's not hemmed in by trying to deal with the consequences of its own actions, and he's also going to see Turkey being a much stronger regional power with a much weakened Russia

I keep going on about this on this thread but you cannot emphasise enough the strategic and political miscalculation that this entire episode is for Russia

Not only is the myth of the Russian military laid bare for all to see, but countries that are equally keen to be regional superpowers on its borders (Poland, Turkey being the clear beneficiaries in the West and South, China in the south and east) are now the ones that old Russian republics look to

Russia will still be a regional power, but its influence and reach outside its borders is completely reset to countries that are 100% reliant on Russia (like Syria) or global pariahs (like Iran and North Korea)

And the idea that Putin meets with India and/or China as an "equal" is for the birds, and everyone knows this

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Tue Jul 11, 2023 11:53 am

I think Germany was a bit reluctant/slow to support Ukraine in this conflict initially but really coming up with some useful stuff latterly. I think they supplied one very successfully operated Patriot system already but 2 more launchers in a very good-looking new package
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 8481411072

Along with the French promise of cruise missiles and the sounds coming from the big Vilnius meeting - excellent news for Ukraine/ bad news for Putin.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jul 11, 2023 12:00 pm

LeadBelly wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 11, 2023 11:53 am
I think Germany was a bit reluctant/slow to support Ukraine in this conflict initially but really coming up with some useful stuff latterly. I think they supplied one very successfully operated Patriot system already but 2 more launchers in a very good-looking new package
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 8481411072

Along with the French promise of cruise missiles and the sounds coming from the big Vilnius meeting - excellent news for Ukraine/ bad news for Putin.

Now beyond pointless pretending anything else

The only thing that Putin and Russia respects is strength

The more we arm Ukraine, the more likely Russia are likely to realise that they can't win

Any weakening of this will just prolong the war

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:23 pm

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-07-11/
Such a porous border with lots of sympathisers as well,I think Ukraine will use this tactic more and more.

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Tue Jul 11, 2023 10:27 pm

LeadBelly wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 11, 2023 11:32 am
Good news as we must have got to the "cant spare any more" point with Storm Shadow. What they are reported as sending are exactly the same arent they? The missile was a joint (UK/Fr) project so presumably just different names for the same thing? Hopefully the aircraft used (Migs?) can carry and fire these just the same.

Yeh pretty much the Same missile I think the French have a longer range version I read up to around 1000 km although I have no idea if that is true.

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:42 am

More criticism from within
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-07-13/

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 12:32 pm

bfcjg wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:42 am
More criticism from within
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-07-13/

Good article and interesting in that RUS quite clearly can’t replace their lost artillery at anything like the rate they require for such a huge front .

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 12:34 pm

Without going into loads of details, countries that have civil wars within its military structure whilst during a war aren't going to be winning any war

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 3:29 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 13, 2023 12:34 pm
Without going into loads of details, countries that have civil wars within its military structure whilst during a war aren't going to be winning any war

the whole NATO/Ukraine thing from yesterday - do you reckon that will make a scrap of difference to Russia's approach ?

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 3:57 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 13, 2023 3:29 pm
the whole NATO/Ukraine thing from yesterday - do you reckon that will make a scrap of difference to Russia's approach ?

There wasn't a real change in NATO strategy so most of what was said and done was expected. The only change was the behaviour of Turkey which must have come as a big disappointment to Russia.

As has been said, Russia can only hope that we - The West - will get fed up or run out of weapons to supply Ukraine. For the moment all countries (except, publicly, Hungary) recognise the consequences of a Ukraine defeat.

I'm still not clear what the end game is here. You would think the Russian political elite cannot survive a full Ukrainian victory, although they so far have seen off the mutiny - quite amazing really. And if Ukraine lose it would be unthinkable for us in the west.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:00 pm

Hipper wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 13, 2023 3:57 pm
There wasn't a real change in NATO strategy so most of what was said and done was expected. The only change was the behaviour of Turkey which must have come as a big disappointment to Russia.

As has been said, Russia can only hope that we - The West - will get fed up or run out of weapons to supply Ukraine. For the moment all countries (except, publicly, Hungary) recognise the consequences of a Ukraine defeat. It's unthinkable.

I'm still not clear what the end game is here. You would think the Russian political elite cannot survive a full Ukrainian victory, although they so far have seen off the mutiny - quite amazing really. And if Ukraine lose it would be unthinkable for us in the west.

we wont run out of weapons surely ? The arms companies must be having a field day !! I don't see any way in which Ukraine loses tbh but it's just how long it goes on for and how many people they lose.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:22 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 13, 2023 3:29 pm
the whole NATO/Ukraine thing from yesterday - do you reckon that will make a scrap of difference to Russia's approach ?

Before Feb 2022, there was absolutely no chance NATO would ever admit Ukraine

Before Feb 2022, there was very little chance that Finland and Sweden would want to join NATO

I wish I could tell you what Russia is going to do

I don't think anyone knows

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:25 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:00 pm
we wont run out of weapons surely ? The arms companies must be having a field day !! I don't see any way in which Ukraine loses tbh but it's just how long it goes on for and how many people they lose.

Ukraine can only lose if we spend all our time arguing about stuff like "are we being thanked enough by Ukraine?"

If the West and the G7 haven't got their act together regarding weapons procurement and ammunition by now, then there is something pretty seriously wrong with the people the West have in charge (and I don't think they messed up to this extent, but you never know)

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 4:51 pm

Independent reporting that Yevgeny Prigozhin( Wagner leader ) is “ dead or in prison “ which is possibly a reasonable assumption .
As for “ the west “ looks like we’re JUST about giving UKR enough to have top air defence over cities , and enough ammo,artillery etc to slowly consolidate and push RUS v slowly back . RUS have almost zero gains since Bakhmut and they’re losing that again .
Pre 22 the mere idea of UKR in the EU/NATO was ludicrous, their infrastructure and corruption was something else . I think ( though most are v keen ) the US is gonna take some persuasion at least until there is peace