Russia Invades

[Vegas Claret]

So if WW3 was going to ensue, why hasn’t it already? What with Ukraine using its drones to destroy Russia’s oil refinery capacity (10-20% of it by all estimates)? That’s not only directly damaging the Russian economy to the point they’ve had to start importing fuel from Belarus to meet domestic needs, but bringing the war to home soil. A lot more so than a few F16’s will do.

It’s also proving that Russian Air defence is pathetic, because those drones are highly unsophisticated, but that’s another topic.

NATO.

The US has truly colossal air power both in term of power and numbers, the USAF alone is gigantic, then you throw in the Army and Marines and it's unbeatable.

[Vegas Claret]

America has over 13000 active aircraft, Russia has around 4000 as does China. There is no comparison - then you add NATO........

[NewClaret]

The US has truly colossal air power both in term of power and numbers, the USAF alone is gigantic, then you throw in the Army and Marines and it's unbeatable.

It is. Completely unbeatable. The US could take Russia out in a matter of days.

[NewClaret]

America has over 13000 active aircraft, Russia has around 4000 as does China. There is no comparison - then you add NATO........

The 13000 US aircraft will also be far more advanced than anything Russia has to offer up. Most of their planes were designed in the soviet era!!

Russia had 3 working A50 reconnaissance aircraft, all of which Ukraine have destroyed (6 in total although 3 are thought to be permanently undergoing maintenance)!

[NewClaret]

$50 billion is a twenty fourth of the annual expenditure according to your figures. I don't think that's 'nothing'.

As we in the west are not military nations we don't spend extortionate amounts on the military. In particular we do not have a massive military industry. We would either have to eat into our reserves of equipment/shells etc., weakening our own forces, or increase the manufacture of these items. Either way, western governments have to make a judgement as to how much tax payers money they want to spend on Ukraine and what other services they will spend less on (or increase taxes of course). These governments are answerable to the electorate.

The UK has spent £7.1 billion on military aid up to now according to this link:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/re ... /cbp-9477/

Less than 5% of the combined EU/US budget isn’t a lot though really, is it?

And that relatively paltry amount is keeping Russia at bay and in the last year at least has regained ground. If they really got behind them they could end it very quickly.

[Vegas Claret]

The 13000 US aircraft will also be far more advanced than anything Russia has to offer up. Most of their planes were designed in the soviet era!!

Russia had 3 working A50 reconnaissance aircraft, all of which Ukraine have destroyed (6 in total although 3 are thought to be permanently undergoing maintenance)!

yes for sure, there's a lot of crap in the US inventory too but they still have them

[Carlos the Great]

This is what puzzles me about the UK wishing to be independent .: let’s make Britain great again .. let’s be trading partners throughout the world /:: sounds like we need America and the Europe our allies and would be a better idea to concentrate on understanding who are friends are as the way things are going we need them

[Hipper]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... gy-success

[bfcjg]

Let's hope this and increased European side turns the war again in Ukraine's favour.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... ppens-next

[Colburn_Claret]

This is what puzzles me about the UK wishing to be independent .: let’s make Britain great again .. let’s be trading partners throughout the world /:: sounds like we need America and the Europe our allies and would be a better idea to concentrate on understanding who are friends are as the way things are going we need them

They also need us.
You don't have to be married to have shared interests or goals.

[Anonymous Claret]

I sometimes wonder if people ever question whether the aid that Western governments provides goes to Ukraine or whether it goes to the US Military Industrial Complex and the coke addicted, puppet actor, president of Ukraine?

I think that you can apply Julian Assange's take on Afghanistan to the Ukraine.

' The goal is to use Afghanistan (Ukraine) to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan (Ukraine) and back into the hands of a transitional security elite. The goal is an endless war not a successful war.

I am sure there were many on here who said that Ukraine would push Russia back within a few months. Here we are over 2 years later with no sight of an ending.The only thing I can see that has happened is that billions of pounds have left our country and countless Ukrainian soldiers and civilians along with many Russian military personnel have needlessly died.

[CoolClaret]

I sometimes wonder if people ever question whether the aid that Western governments provides goes to Ukraine or whether it goes to the US Military Industrial Complex and the coke addicted, puppet actor, president of Ukraine?

I think that you can apply Julian Assange's take on Afghanistan to the Ukraine.

' The goal is to use Afghanistan (Ukraine) to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan (Ukraine) and back into the hands of a transitional security elite. The goal is an endless war not a successful war.

I am sure there were many on here who said that Ukraine would push Russia back within a few months. Here we are over 2 years later with no sight of an ending.The only thing I can see that has happened is that billions of pounds have left our country and countless Ukrainian soldiers and civilians along with many Russian military personnel have needlessly died.

Who initiated the war with an invasion of a sovereign state?

[bfcjg]

Which country deliberately bombed maternity hospitals,schools,houses, shopping centres etc to terrify civilians ? What does the majority of the world do sit back and say oh this is a tax fiddle opportunity and watch the suffering ?

[groove]

Who initiated the war with an invasion of a sovereign state?

You could argue that NATO's expansion into Ukraine was the catalyst for that. They knew what they were doing when they poked the bear.

[IanMcL]

Anonymous Claretsky!

[elwaclaret]

You could argue that NATO's expansion into Ukraine was the catalyst for that. They knew what they were doing when they poked the bear.

No you couldn’t. Ukraine was not and is not part of NATO, despite Ukraine’s best efforts. Is that the bear that took Crimea off them?

[Anonymous Claret]

No you couldn’t. Ukraine was not and is not part of NATO, despite Ukraine’s best efforts. Is that the bear that took Crimea off them?

I know that you like your history Elwa so please tell me if any of this is incorrect. I am not being awkward. I would genuinely like your take on it.

When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 there was an unwritten agreement with Russia that NATO would not expand its borders. Now if you compare the NATO map of 1989 to the NATO map of today you can see how much it has expanded pushing right onto the Russian border in several countries. Although Ukraine is not part of NATO the US and other NATO countries have been supplying them with billions of dollars of aid (Weapons). To me it looks as though Ukraine is an unofficial member of NATO

I have to explain this again to people who may not know my view on this matter to avoid the snide comments such as Anonymous Claretsky I think that Putin is a warmongering psychopath. Where I disagree with most on here is that I think that Zelensky is nothing more than a coke sniffing puppet of the West. They are as bad as each other IMO.

This is not our war. I don't want people to die from any country and I especially hope that no British servicemen/women are sent to the Ukraine.

[CoolClaret]

You could argue that NATO's expansion into Ukraine was the catalyst for that. They knew what they were doing when they poked the bear.

The only way in which one could argue that is if one swallowed & spouted Kremlin propaganda verbatim.

NATO has never 'expanded' anywhere. To join a nation state has to express interest to join, meet NATO standards, have unanimous approval by all existing NATO standards and then finally join.

Now - Finland - the Country situated on Russia's border near St.Petersburg, despite being invaded by the Soviet's in the past had never joined NATO, nor had Sweden (the next country over)... guess what changed that?

Drum roll please....

The Russian invasion of Ukraine! Two more democratically strong Nations now a part of NATO!

Some result that eh? Great job Vladimir!

[Anonymous Claret]

Who initiated the war with an invasion of a sovereign state?

If you apply that logic why has NATO chosen not to defend thousands of innocent Palestinian women and children being slaughtered?

There is also the argument that the people of Crimea voted to be part of Russia.

Ukraine as with Israel/Palestine and Northern Ireland is a very complex situation as you know. There are no easy solutions to any of the disputed land areas.

Maybe people should start asking who benefits from a prolonged war?

This is 1 of the most telling statements I have seen in recent years.

The bankers will ensure we stay in debt.
The pharmaceutical companies will ensure we stay sick.
The weapons manufacturers will ensure we keep going to war.
The media will ensure we are prevented from knowing the truth.
The Government will ensure all of this is done legally.

[CoolClaret]

If you apply that logic why has NATO chosen not to defend thousands of innocent Palestinian women and children being slaughtered?

There is also the argument that the people of Crimea voted to be part of Russia.

Ukraine as with Israel/Palestine and Northern Ireland is a very complex situation as you know. There are no easy solutions to any of the disputed land areas.

Maybe people should start asking who benefits from a prolonged war?

This is 1 of the most telling statements I have seen in recent years.

The bankers will ensure we stay in debt.
The pharmaceutical companies will ensure we stay sick.
The weapons manufacturers will ensure we keep going to war.
The media will ensure we are prevented from knowing the truth.
The Government will ensure all of this is done legally.

AC

You need to seriously stop spending your time reading conspiratorial content on the internet and taking things that have an element of truth to an extreme.

I have seen it time and time again where a little slip down the rabbit hole and next thing you know you can't rationalise anything.
It's very dangerous and does no good for your mental health.

You cannot even accept my retort on it's face value (which btw, is 100% accurate/true) without trying to spin it into some conspiritorial angle.

It isn't healthy and not only that, achieves nothing.

Of course people that make arms prosper in war - but if it's for the reasons you're thinking then why the hell would the US pull out of Afghanistan & Iraq?

On Palestine - it's quite simply impossible to condense the entire Geo-Political situation around that conflict into a retort on the internet and is far more nuanced than people like to suggest.

There's a lot of factors at play and also - Palestine isn't relevant to the Ukraine situation ITT.

The Crimea 'vote' is a complete nonsense - you really believe 97% of voters legitimately voted to join Russia? Margins like that do not happen anywhere.
Funny that Russia was occupying Crimea when that 'vote' took place...

[tarkys_ears]

I should start selling tinfoil hats.

...Alan Sugar, nowhere!

[Anonymous Claret]

AC

You need to seriously stop spending your time reading conspiratorial content on the internet and taking things that have an element of truth to an extreme.

I have seen it time and time again where a little slip down the rabbit hole and next thing you know you can't rationalise anything.
It's very dangerous and does no good for your mental health.

You cannot even accept my retort on it's face value (which btw, is 100% accurate/true) without trying to spin it into some conspiritorial angle.

It isn't healthy and not only that, achieves nothing.

Of course people that make arms prosper in war - but if it's for the reasons you're thinking then why the hell would the US pull out of Afghanistan & Iraq?

On Palestine - it's quite simply impossible to condense the entire Geo-Political situation around that conflict into a retort on the internet and is far more nuanced than people like to suggest.

There's a lot of factors at play and also - Palestine isn't relevant to the Ukraine situation ITT.

The Crimea 'vote' is a complete nonsense - you really believe 97% of voters legitimately voted to join Russia? Margins like that do not happen anywhere.
Funny that Russia was occupying Crimea when that 'vote' took place...

Thanks for your advice CC but I am genuinely ok. We have differing views and that is fine. I respect the way you respond in a dignified manner. I believe your intentions are genuine with no malice. You seem a decent person who only wants the best for a fellow human being. You possess some good qualities and I thank you for your concern.

I take good care of my mental health most of the time through meditation, exercise, a healthy diet, regular connection with friends and family along with being of service to others. I don't post on here that often compared to others and I have regular breaks.

On that note I am going to bid you good night and see what tomorrow holds when I wake in the morning

[elwaclaret]

I know that you like your history Elwa so please tell me if any of this is incorrect. I am not being awkward. I would genuinely like your take on it.

When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 there was an unwritten agreement with Russia that NATO would not expand its borders. Now if you compare the NATO map of 1989 to the NATO map of today you can see how much it has expanded pushing right onto the Russian border in several countries. Although Ukraine is not part of NATO the US and other NATO countries have been supplying them with billions of dollars of aid (Weapons). To me it looks as though Ukraine is an unofficial member of NATO

I have to explain this again to people who may not know my view on this matter to avoid the snide comments such as Anonymous Claretsky I think that Putin is a warmongering psychopath. Where I disagree with most on here is that I think that Zelensky is nothing more than a coke sniffing puppet of the West. They are as bad as each other IMO.

This is not our war. I don't want people to die from any country and I especially hope that no British servicemen/women are sent to the Ukraine.

The agreement was actually that NATO would not approach the newly independent country, it remained true to its word… and there was opposition from within NATO to accepting new members on every occasion that there has been an approach. It is why UKRAINE is not already a member (they did not apply under the pro Putin former leader). Of course the former Soviet block want protection from Russia, because there was always a good chance of another dictator, under their electoral system…

I have no idea if Zelensky is a coke sniffing puppet, I know coke has been handed out to most leaders at times of war, not to mention the troops. During the First World War you could send a hamper including cocaine from Fortnum and Masons, directly to the front lines.
Russia wanted the power Crimea gives them… same reason now, as when we and France fought them in the Crimean War. Now they want the natural resources and agriculture of Ukraine.

This time NATO stood aside and let Russia grab the controlling interest of the region… Crimea; power over Ukraine; they could turn on and off at will. To suggest the West is on the make… undoubtedly, a lot of money is being made (America always benefits from war) but to suggest it is a conspiracy is going too far. The West are trying not to step over the line with Russia, hoping eventually to strangle the fight out of the economy… so far it has failed, to an embarrassing level. They are left with reinvigorating their help to Ukraine or a massive headache updating NATO in the face of Russian emboldenment, or putting boots on the ground; because Putin will no more settle for Ukraine than he did for Crimea: when NATO should have woken up to the threat.

The people warning of WW3 are very serious; the West have allowed greed to control everything, it has emboldened not only Russia but China and India… who are now aligned. If Ukraine falls, China attacks Taiwan…

[Belgianclaret]

If you apply that logic why has NATO chosen not to defend thousands of innocent Palestinian women and children being slaughtered?

There is also the argument that the people of Crimea voted to be part of Russia.

Ukraine as with Israel/Palestine and Northern Ireland is a very complex situation as you know. There are no easy solutions to any of the disputed land areas.

Maybe people should start asking who benefits from a prolonged war?

This is 1 of the most telling statements I have seen in recent years.

The bankers will ensure we stay in debt.
The pharmaceutical companies will ensure we stay sick.
The weapons manufacturers will ensure we keep going to war.
The media will ensure we are prevented from knowing the truth.
The Government will ensure all of this is done legally.

Russia spending billions on cybercrime and misinformation. Seems like the bull* has also arrived here

[ecc]

This is what puzzles me about the UK wishing to be independent .: let’s make Britain great again .. let’s be trading partners throughout the world /:: sounds like we need America and the Europe our allies and would be a better idea to concentrate on understanding who are friends are as the way things are going we need them

TBH I always believed, rightly or wrongly, that despite the ill-feeling engendered by Brexit that the UK would continue to liaise with Europe. Defence is the obvious area for continued cooperation. The British and French were involved in thwarting the Iranian missiles and drones.

Politics is largely about pragmatism.

And, FWIW, I remain convinced, as a Briton having lived in France for over 30 years, that the EU would prefer to see the UK return within its ranks. Whether it will happen I don't know but that's my feeling.

[JarrowClaret]

If you apply that logic why has NATO chosen not to defend thousands of innocent Palestinian women and children being slaughtered?

There is also the argument that the people of Crimea voted to be part of Russia.

Ukraine as with Israel/Palestine and Northern Ireland is a very complex situation as you know. There are no easy solutions to any of the disputed land areas.

Maybe people should start asking who benefits from a prolonged war?

This is 1 of the most telling statements I have seen in recent years.

The bankers will ensure we stay in debt.
The pharmaceutical companies will ensure we stay sick.
The weapons manufacturers will ensure we keep going to war.
The media will ensure we are prevented from knowing the truth.
The Government will ensure all of this is done legally.

There is so much to the Palestinian debate not sure it is for this thread but as with any war we as the general public only see what someone wants us to see. Hamas will send us grossly exaggerated figures with mock videos to make us believe there is a slaughter whilst the Israelis will send us the opposite to suggest all is as well as can be. As it happens no doubt the truth is somewhere in the middle of the 2 extremes, but I would guess at the Israel figures being more accurate but you never know what the truth of it is.

War is awful Innocents die as it is largely unavoidable even when proper targeting strategies are used. It is made worse when organisations such as hamas, we can probably also include Russian and Ukrainian forces in this as well, operate deliberately around civilian infrastructure hospitals, churches etc to either protect themselves or to cause propaganda if they are attacked ( the vast majority of the civilian death in Gaza will be caused by this). I guess the Israelis don’t care enough about the Palestinian people to stop this but sadly and even worse in my opinion hamas couldn’t give a monkeys ass about them either.

[bfcjg]

The USA secretly supplied some long range missiles.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/24/poli ... index.html

[AlargeClaret]

There will be fireworks from UKR now they’ve been given the go ahead to use plenty more long range kit . With RUS reporting a huge increase in NATO drone, sat, radar coverage I’d imagine a couple of “ showpiece “ hits like Kerch Bridge etc . UKR will make also full use of that NATA data and mass target RUS air defence .airfields , depots etc . Will certainly put UKR right back in the game .

[Anonymous Claret]

The agreement was actually that NATO would not approach the newly independent country, it remained true to its word… and there was opposition from within NATO to accepting new members on every occasion that there has been an approach. It is why UKRAINE is not already a member (they did not apply under the pro Putin former leader). Of course the former Soviet block want protection from Russia, because there was always a good chance of another dictator, under their electoral system…

I have no idea if Zelensky is a coke sniffing puppet, I know coke has been handed out to most leaders at times of war, not to mention the troops. During the First World War you could send a hamper including cocaine from Fortnum and Masons, directly to the front lines.
Russia wanted the power Crimea gives them… same reason now, as when we and France fought them in the Crimean War. Now they want the natural resources and agriculture of Ukraine.

This time NATO stood aside and let Russia grab the controlling interest of the region… Crimea; power over Ukraine; they could turn on and off at will. To suggest the West is on the make… undoubtedly, a lot of money is being made (America always benefits from war) but to suggest it is a conspiracy is going too far. The West are trying not to step over the line with Russia, hoping eventually to strangle the fight out of the economy… so far it has failed, to an embarrassing level. They are left with reinvigorating their help to Ukraine or a massive headache updating NATO in the face of Russian emboldenment, or putting boots on the ground; because Putin will no more settle for Ukraine than he did for Crimea: when NATO should have woken up to the threat.

The people warning of WW3 are very serious; the West have allowed greed to control everything, it has emboldened not only Russia but China and India… who are now aligned. If Ukraine falls, China attacks Taiwan…

Thanks for taking the time to reply Elwa. I may not agree with some of your opinions but I respect you taking the time to reply and provide some historical references etc.

[ecc]

"Thanks for taking the time to reply Elwa. I may not agree with some of your opinions but I respect you taking the time to reply and provide some historical references etc."

Respect. Not enough of it on UTC but this thread has, by and large, been a haven of respect.

And respect to Anonymous Claret and Elwa.

[KateR]

One thing to start thing about now, is the upcoming winter, while Russia has been hitting many soft targets and disrupting the energy sector, primarily power. It has never, as far as I know gone after the main gas pipeline transmission infrastructure, but it has just tried to hit the one main underground gas storage unit in Ukraine.

What many may not know is that Russia has a main gas transmission agreement with the Ukraine, therefore, even today Russia is transporting gas through the Ukraine and selling gas, Ukraine of course get a payment for the amount of gas transported through their country. That agreement has been kept in place by both sides with no significant attacks either way, however the agreement runs out in December and Ukraine have publicly stated they will not renew, this is obviously going to have consequences to both parties!

Obviously, both parties will lose financially, Ukraine will lose more in terms of their gas infrastructure coming under more attacks than ever, along with the power, when it's obviously needed the most. It will be interesting to see how Ukraine reacts, in terms of deliberately attacking the Russian gas transmission system outside the one routed through the Ukraine.

We know that Europe reduced its gas dependency on Russia, but it could be something that does hurt more, Ukraine are going to need all the help they can get to stop, vastly reduce the attacks on their energy infrastructure. Plus, keep the lights and the heat on, the latest round of financial aid will be crucial, plus further down the line just when the US make their decision on with party is in power, with some severe ramifications if indeed there is a change.

Just some random musings of what is potentially coming, and Winter is definitely coming!

[bfcjg]

Thats a very interesting point KateR, could really have massive consequences.

[NewClaret]

One thing to start thing about now, is the upcoming winter, while Russia has been hitting many soft targets and disrupting the energy sector, primarily power. It has never, as far as I know gone after the main gas pipeline transmission infrastructure, but it has just tried to hit the one main underground gas storage unit in Ukraine.

What many may not know is that Russia has a main gas transmission agreement with the Ukraine, therefore, even today Russia is transporting gas through the Ukraine and selling gas, Ukraine of course get a payment for the amount of gas transported through their country. That agreement has been kept in place by both sides with no significant attacks either way, however the agreement runs out in December and Ukraine have publicly stated they will not renew, this is obviously going to have consequences to both parties!

Obviously, both parties will lose financially, Ukraine will lose more in terms of their gas infrastructure coming under more attacks than ever, along with the power, when it's obviously needed the most. It will be interesting to see how Ukraine reacts, in terms of deliberately attacking the Russian gas transmission system outside the one routed through the Ukraine.

We know that Europe reduced its gas dependency on Russia, but it could be something that does hurt more, Ukraine are going to need all the help they can get to stop, vastly reduce the attacks on their energy infrastructure. Plus, keep the lights and the heat on, the latest round of financial aid will be crucial, plus further down the line just when the US make their decision on with party is in power, with some severe ramifications if indeed there is a change.

Just some random musings of what is potentially coming, and Winter is definitely coming!

Interesting stuff - I didn’t know any of that. The gas transport deal, the underground gas storage units, etc.

I know that Ukraine has also been hitting oil refineries in Russia on an almost daily basis using Ukrainian made drones. Two today, I think.

It seems to me their tactics are to hit one at a time, slowly enough not to provoke a massive reaction but probably frequently enough to put a lot of pressure on the Russian capacity. I read they were now importing petrol from Belarus for domestic needs and overall supply has been reduced by 10-20%.

The drones always seem to hit the refinery equipment and not the storage containers with remarkable accuracy.

[jos]

One thing to start thing about now, is the upcoming winter, while Russia has been hitting many soft targets and disrupting the energy sector, primarily power. It has never, as far as I know gone after the main gas pipeline transmission infrastructure, but it has just tried to hit the one main underground gas storage unit in Ukraine.

What many may not know is that Russia has a main gas transmission agreement with the Ukraine, therefore, even today Russia is transporting gas through the Ukraine and selling gas, Ukraine of course get a payment for the amount of gas transported through their country. That agreement has been kept in place by both sides with no significant attacks either way, however the agreement runs out in December and Ukraine have publicly stated they will not renew, this is obviously going to have consequences to both parties!

Obviously, both parties will lose financially, Ukraine will lose more in terms of their gas infrastructure coming under more attacks than ever, along with the power, when it's obviously needed the most. It will be interesting to see how Ukraine reacts, in terms of deliberately attacking the Russian gas transmission system outside the one routed through the Ukraine.

We know that Europe reduced its gas dependency on Russia, but it could be something that does hurt more, Ukraine are going to need all the help they can get to stop, vastly reduce the attacks on their energy infrastructure. Plus, keep the lights and the heat on, the latest round of financial aid will be crucial, plus further down the line just when the US make their decision on with party is in power, with some severe ramifications if indeed there is a change.

Just some random musings of what is potentially coming, and Winter is definitely coming!

Another very important factor to consider is ….
When Electricity fails, it fails ‘SAFE’
When Gas fails (ie pressure is lost) it fail extremely’UNSAFE’ and untold damage can be incurred anywhere down the pipeline.
That’s why when gas mains fail in towns and villages, houses are evacuated until pressure is restored.

This might play a factor in your post.

[TsarBomba]

Concerning reports of a ‘partial collapse’ in the Ukrainian defensive lines in Donetsk.

Collapse may be too strong a word, but the consensus is that the situation in the east is deteriorating.

[bfcjg]

There are some rather large NATO exercises taking place in Finland, I was also talking somebody the other day whose son is in the amy and he was telling me that in actual fact what is left of the army after all the cuts is being moved more and more towards European battle ground scenarios . I think if Kiev is threatened NATO will act.