Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑

Thu May 05, 2022 12:37 pm

Agree to disagree.
I don't doubt it won't be easy, but it's a lot harder to pull the wool over the eyes of the younger generations. They've enjoyed all the modern technology FB, Twitter,etc. They've tasted life as the West does, it's benefits, as well as its downside. As the elderly die off, the support for Putins style of communism will too. You can't kow tow that generation.
All it takes is for somebody in power, to see the direction the tide is going, and jump on board with it.
I don't envisage the end of Communism , but I can't see the next 'leader' getting away with what Putin has done. They can't be blind to the dangers that lies in one man having all the authority. There has to be a checks and balance, only in Moscow today it's gone out the window.

Communism in its proper sense ended years ago.

Putin was 48 when he became President.

Edit - I removed the rest as it's not really what this thread is about - the Russia - Ukraine war.

I should imagine the Russian authorities will be out en masse on the 9th to prevent any disruption or a sniper taking a shot at Putin.

bfcjg wrote: ↑

Thu May 05, 2022 5:19 pm

I should imagine the Russian authorities will be out en masse on the 9th to prevent any disruption or a sniper taking a shot at Putin.

They’ll have to find some. Most are busy keeping protestors off the streets, those that have not been sent to bulk up the army in Ukraine, that is.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/statu ... 2353177600

Sanctions on Russia will not be lifted without Ukraines consent - Chancellor Scholz

REUTERS: Germany will co-operate to allow countries without ports access LNG

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1522 ... HGyZabcVog

OSINTtechnical: Aftermath of chaotic fighting around Kharkiv

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... HGyZabcVog

NEXTA: EU file of human gross rights abuses increases daily in Ukraine, and over 180 kidnapings

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... HGyZabcVog

MSN, Phillips-OBrien retweet:
Volunteers from allied nations are deserting and returning home because “they deceived us at every step” and Russia’s war is a shambles.

https://twitter.com/arvershbow/status/1 ... HGyZabcVog

Attention this morning is firmly on Belarus as Kidnapped NEXTA journalists (travelling on Ryanair) are sentenced to imprisonment, Russian invasion combat troops patrol the streets and a series of anti-protest raids lead to mass opposition of the populace and the Church.

Riots and Resistance: https://twitter.com/riotsresistance/sta ... FQRtKOeP3g

HANNA LUBAKOVA:https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/stat ... FQRtKOeP3g

And…. https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/stat ... FQRtKOeP3g

Sergei Sumlenny: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/130 ... FQRtKOeP3g

NEXTA: Cemetery in Ryazan, Russia

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... FQRtKOeP3g

One of those unconfirmed reports again I'm afraid, but this account are reporting that a Russian frigate is on fire and a rescue operation is underway

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/15 ... 5750146048

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 10:50 am

One of those unconfirmed reports again I'm afraid, but this account are reporting that a Russian frigate is on fire and a rescue operation is underway

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/15 ... 5750146048

The Mirror has a far-off photo of what is claimed to be this Admiral Makarov frigate. From reports it seem to be off the coast of Romania/Moldova and quite a way from Odessa. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... p-26889015

Coincidentally enough, Forbes had a very recent article saying that this was the most vulnerable target of Russia's (remaining) Black Sea fleet. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 17b9d674d5

Quite a few links to this Russian frigate loss now.

https://twitter.com/alexkhrebet/status/ ... 87936?s=21

jos wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 1:49 pm

Quite a few links to this Russian frigate loss now.

https://twitter.com/alexkhrebet/status/ ... 87936?s=21

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status ... 4182134791

Satellite imagery of the area suggests otherwise (unless its sunk and the rescue boats and helicopters have left the area (not likely)

elwaclaret wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 10:03 am

Attention this morning is firmly on Belarus as Kidnapped NEXTA journalists (travelling on Ryanair) are sentenced to imprisonment, Russian invasion combat troops patrol the streets and a series of anti-protest raids lead to mass opposition of the populace and the Church.

Riots and Resistance: https://twitter.com/riotsresistance/sta ... FQRtKOeP3g

HANNA LUBAKOVA:https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/stat ... FQRtKOeP3g

And…. https://twitter.com/hannaliubakova/stat ... FQRtKOeP3g

Sergei Sumlenny: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/130 ... FQRtKOeP3g

and I'll repeat, the response from NATO isn't strong enough. These actions will spread like wildfire

Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑

Thu May 05, 2022 12:37 pm

Agree to disagree.
I don't doubt it won't be easy, but it's a lot harder to pull the wool over the eyes of the younger generations. They've enjoyed all the modern technology FB, Twitter,etc. They've tasted life as the West does, it's benefits, as well as its downside. As the elderly die off, the support for Putins style of communism will too. You can't kow tow that generation.
All it takes is for somebody in power, to see the direction the tide is going, and jump on board with it.
I don't envisage the end of Communism , but I can't see the next 'leader' getting away with what Putin has done. They can't be blind to the dangers that lies in one man having all the authority. There has to be a checks and balance, only in Moscow today it's gone out the window.

What I will say is , I hope your right and I am wrong.

A good thread on the current state of play in Ukraine, Ukrainian area gains and the Russia Area gains with maps.

https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1522 ... SouPihEfJQ

LeadBelly wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 12:21 pm

The Mirror has a far-off photo of what is claimed to be this Admiral Makarov frigate. From reports it seem to be off the coast of Romania/Moldova and quite a way from Odessa. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... p-26889015

Coincidentally enough, Forbes had a very recent article saying that this was the most vulnerable target of Russia's (remaining) Black Sea fleet. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 17b9d674d5

A couple of weeks ago the sister ship, Admiral Essen, was also reported by the Ukrainians as being hit by missiles. What happened to that story?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_f ... iral_Essen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiral_G ... ss_frigate

Looking more likely that something has happened to the Admiral Makarov

https://twitter.com/hdevreij/status/1522567204751003649

The Ukrainians are very, very, very good at social media

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1522574828485677056

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 3:58 pm

Looking more likely that something has happened to the Admiral Makarov

https://twitter.com/hdevreij/status/1522567204751003649

Good stuff. For some reason, it feels like naval losses are more embarrassing for Russia than all the tanks, etc. Slava Ukraine.

As someone pointed out NewClaret, it is pretty embarrassing in a land war, against a country with very little/no navy.

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1 ... 1303355392

Thread on what the sanctions are doing medium and long term to Russia

This is what UKDJ are reporting

Russia’s Admiral Makarov has been hit by Ukrainian missiles and is currently on fire, according to Ukrainian officials.
The frigate would be Russia’s latest naval loss coming after the Russian cruiser Moskva was sunk by Ukraine weeks ago.

Local media outlets also reported a frigate was burning in the Black Sea near to Snake Island.

“A Russian warship operating in the Black was hit and left burning by a Ukrainian cruise missile, news reports and social media reported on Friday. The UNIAN news agency citing the government social media website Dumska said the vessel was a “Burevestnik” class frigate, at midday located near the island Zmeyny, offshore from the Danube delta.

The usually-reliable Gruz200 military news web platform said a naval source confirmed that a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile struck the vessel. The Dumska statement likewise said a Ukrainian Neptune missile hit the ship, and that “large numbers” of Russian aircraft were circling overhead.”

A maritime ship tracking service showed a Russian rescue ship identified as SPK-46150 en route to the location and FlightRadar24 showed a US Air Force Global Hawk long-range reconnaissance drone over the location at 0500 this morning.

Commissioned in only 2017, the Admiral Makarov is one of Russia’s most modern warships and carries a crew of around 200.

Some decent articles from the BBC. Seems to be turning in Ukraine's favour .
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61343815

Remarkable footage from a TB-2 drone of 2 Ukrainian Su-27 striking Russian facilities on Snake Island

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 0230444035

I found this piece of journalism very interesting. A visit to east Ukraine front lines by a journalist with quite a few (human and technical) insights. One thing I'd never considered is that the use of Starlink has played a big role for the Ukrainians - in terms of enabling comms. To quote a Ukrainian soldier from the piece "“Russia went out of its way to blow up all our comms. Now they can’t. Starlink works under Katyusha fire, under artillery fire. It even works in Mariupol.”

I think non-subscribers can read this story and the comments but you have to be a subscriber to join in the comments. https://unherd.com/2022/05/inside-the-b ... ern-front/

LeadBelly wrote: ↑

Sun May 08, 2022 10:50 am

I found this piece of journalism very interesting. A visit to east Ukraine front lines by a journalist with quite a few (human and technical) insights. One thing I'd never considered is that the use of Starlink has played a big role for the Ukrainians - in terms of enabling comms. To quote a Ukrainian soldier from the piece "“Russia went out of its way to blow up all our comms. Now they can’t. Starlink works under Katyusha fire, under artillery fire. It even works in Mariupol.”

I think non-subscribers can read this story and the comments but you have to be a subscriber to join in the comments. https://unherd.com/2022/05/inside-the-b ... ern-front/

A really good read.
A massive day tomorrow, who knows what Putin is preparing, but he must have something special designed to boost his, and Russians, ego for May 9th.

Forewarned is forearmed, it would be so good if Ukraine can preempt it. It could be the straw that breaks Putins back.

My prayers are with them. Slava Ukraine

REUTERS: Latest footage released by Ukraine military demonstrates their ability to target a hovering helicopter.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1523 ... U3-YVUhRZw

Luckily, Putin has not decided to announce a full mobilisation of troops today.

But the war continues in its current status.

Sadly for the Ukrainians.

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 10:57 am

Luckily, Putin has not decided to announce a full mobilisation of troops today.

But the war continues in its current status.

Sadly for the Ukrainians.

He's not gone all in, because he knows he'll lose, and he's not declared a victory, because he knows there isn't going to be one

God knows what he's playing at?

Hoping Trump wins in 2024 and then hoping he manages to overrule 90% of Republican senators over Ukraine aid?

Going to be Syria Mk II

Hey lucky Putin had a few tanks left to roll out in Red Square

BBC World Service - Putin addressing Russia yesterday

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/152 ... wHzRni2rOQ

President Zelenskiy’s 8th of May reply to Putin’s speech

https://twitter.com/donjmacleod/status/ ... wHzRni2rOQ

RU cuts water supply to 1 million residents of Luhansk Oblast.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/sta ... KXxSYaZ6Kw

What happened to The Makarov? Anything (or nothing?) It's all gone rather quiet.

this is brilliant
https://twitter.com/ItsBorys/status/152 ... qos36gFlJA

NEXTA: Azovstal Plant under attack again

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/152 ... rVMfqFCr7Q

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 0313433088

Very interesting thread on Ukrainian artillery targeting software

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 11:33 pm

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 0313433088

Very interesting thread on Ukrainian artillery targeting software

Its been added to overnight to highlight the advantages that Starlink give Ukrainians (and the clear potential dangers of this as well)

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 11:33 pm

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 0313433088

Very interesting thread on Ukrainian artillery targeting software

Just read this.

Absolutely fascinating.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status ... 8422120449

Looks like the Admiral Makarov didn't go down, but the bigger Russian naval deployments are certainly staying very close to friendly territory

An army that after 70 odd days is still not learning.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... z1CSSVPIVw

Russian estimated losses after 70 odd days. On people lost, I read a thread in the last couple of days where Ukraine’s contact line for Russian people to ring and find info on loved ones was at 32,000 enquiries. So 26,000 could be an under estimate.

Lost tanks is just a crazy number, when you consider the UK has 220 or so tanks.(I think I read)

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 9:48 am

An army that after 70 odd days is still not learning.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... z1CSSVPIVw

Still stuck to roads

By the time the weather improves (at this rate) they won't have the units or the equipment to use the terrain rather than the roads

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 9:48 am

An army that after 70 odd days is still not learning.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... z1CSSVPIVw

Think that video is the best I’ve seen. Sort of what I was expecting when they were all lined up North if Kyiv.

Do still feel there was a missed opportunity to inflict heavier damage on that convoy, although perhaps there was & that’s why it turned around?

Either way, a great video to illustrate that you cannot invade a country with your tanks and expect them to roll in unopposed.

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/stat ... 6706268160

Analysis of potential Ukrainian counter attack options

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 9:53 am

Russian estimated losses after 70 odd days. On people lost, I read a thread in the last couple of days where Ukraine’s contact line for Russian people to ring and find info on loved ones was at 32,000 enquiries. So 26,000 could be an under estimate.

Lost tanks is just a crazy number, when you consider the UK has 220 or so tanks.(I think I read)

9E7F7BCA-C210-4898-98E0-A9B6AAFBE637.png

I still think 26k seems quite low from the destruction I’ve seen, although have been reminded before that probably means another 75k injured. Either way, appears from the footage seen in recent days that Ukrainian forces are inflicting some serious losses.

If the 220 is correct, I’d say that’s quite worrying having watched this war unfold. I’ve never really paid any attention to wars, and previously might’ve considered 220 a lot, but seeing how quickly they can be destroyed and the numbers Russia holds, makes that feel very low.

Appreciate as an island we likely face different risks and are not going to need the equipment to invade a country, but having seen this Russian aggression I’d be very keen we increase our defence spending!

NewClaret wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 10:32 am

Think that video is the best I’ve seen. Sort of what I was expecting when they were all lined up North if Kyiv.

Do still feel there was a missed opportunity to inflict heavier damage on that convoy, although perhaps there was & that’s why it turned around?

Either way, a great video to illustrate that you cannot invade a country with your tanks and expect them to roll in unopposed.

We have to remember with stuff like this that its essentially Ukrainian military propaganda

I think the shots of Russian armor rolling through towns and villages are highly unlikely to be the same unit that got attacked for example

But its clear that until the Russians can get off the roads, then they are really going to struggle not to take losses, and with what looks like no way of striking back

It would be very interesting to know how far from the front lines that column was hit as well, because if the Ukrainians are deploying the longer ranger NATO artillery then the Russians lax security procedures and bunching up on the roads is really going to cost them

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 10:40 am

We have to remember with stuff like this that its essentially Ukrainian military propaganda

I think the shots of Russian armor rolling through towns and villages are highly unlikely to be the same unit that got attacked for example

Sorry, what do you mean by that?