Can only affect what we do

[Milltown1882]

That Everton result is a bit of a shocker but we can still only affect what we do. Jay and Cornet saying we need to win every game shows the team mentality is in the right place.

Huge game tomorrow but we just need to string our results together and not worry about other teams. Leeds, Watford, Everton etc will drop points too but hopefully we have the strength to get enough to survive.

UTC

[Culmclaret]

Twist and turns, twists and turns….

[Goddy]

Couldn't agree more. We pretty much have to win tomorrow whatever Everton did today.

What's likely to happen us one or two at the bottom will implode (Noreich, maybe Watford) and one or two will get dragged in (Leeds - hopefully) maybe Brentford still).

If we just string a couple of wins together the pressure will tell on some teams.

I just hope we're not one of those that will implode......

[Spiral]

Unless a few of the teams are to play each other enough times in enough combinations to mean one or two are guaranteed to drop points, and that happens enough times for us to chase them, it feels as though it is mathematically out of our hands and we're needing these teams to lose, which why this feels so unendurable (to me!). It's true that we can only see to our own results, but I hate it. I've enough stress watching Burnley.

[tiger76]

Good post and if we win tomorrow then the status quo will be maintained, and we'll still be only a point behind Everton, plenty of points to play for yet.

[Goddy]

Good post and if we win tomorrow then the status quo will be maintained, and we'll still be only a point behind Everton, plenty of points to play for yet.

Exactly, tiger. Win tomorrow and we'll be back to a point behind Everton and either 5 points clear of Watford or closer to Leeds. Essentially, win tomorrow and we'll (obvs) be in a better position than and catching other teams.

Just need to beat Norwich, perhaps nick a draw (or perhaps even more at WHU who will have just come back from a tough away European fixture) and then Soton, Wolves and Watford. Pick up 9 or 10 points there and we'll be right back in it.....it really is in our own hands.....

[jojomk1]

Still almost a quarter of the season to go

[BabylonClaret]

Still in our hands. If we win all our games we stay up regardless of what others do. Obviously that's not likely but neither is it likely the other teams at the bottom do that.

Still in our hands.

[Garnerssoap]

But we need snookers so do need others to lose. We’ll do well to get to 36 points - the quicker the others approach that figure marks the end for us

[bobinho]

Everton weren’t getting owt today. Nobody thought they would get even a point. And if they hadnt, and we get all three tomorrow, we WOULD’VE been out the bottom three and they’d be in it, and they’d have ZERO belief. As it stands, we win and we are still in the relegation zone. And then negative thoughts start to creep in like “oh no, Everton have turned the corner”
I suppose my point is that other teams results ARE relevant to what happens to us, and we should take them into account seeing as we can’t and won’t win all our games. We are WAY past taking care of our own future.

[Goddy]

Bobinho - sorry but your final sentence simply is NOT true. (Thought I'd include the shouty text for appropriate emphasis)

[Garnerssoap]

But it is true

[Goddy]

But it is true

Really? So if we win every game you think we'll go down? Didn't think so. OK - not realistic, I give you, but things really are in our own hands

Even winning 5 out of the last night (beating say Norwich, Watford, Soton, Newcastle and one (or more) from Wolves, Newcastle, Villa) is extremely likely to see us safe. I don't think this scenario is so outlandish, quite frankly

Alternatively, we could just give up........

[Garnerssoap]

We win all our remaining games (which you correctly identify unsurprisingly I don’t think we will) we are not guaranteed to stay up.
So it is true to say it is no longer in our hands.
[*not checked beyond leeds and Everton if any others are still to play each other which may prove me wrong]

[Spijed]

We win all our remaining games (which you correctly identify unsurprisingly I don’t think we will) we are not guaranteed to stay up.
So it is true to say it is no longer in our hands.
[*not checked beyond leeds and Everton if any others are still to play each other which may prove me wrong]

That would give us 51 points and although very difficult to work out all the permutations I suspect that there aren't enough points available for three other sides to equal that because when one side gets three points the other gets nothing.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

We win all our remaining games (which you correctly identify unsurprisingly I don’t think we will) we are not guaranteed to stay up.
So it is true to say it is no longer in our hands.
[*not checked beyond leeds and Everton if any others are still to play each other which may prove me wrong]

We currently have a better goal difference than Leeds.
If we won all our remaining games and maintained a superior goal difference, we'd stay up at their expense, as we have 3 games in hand and they're 9 points ahead.

[duncandisorderly]

It is in our hands;
We can end up on 51 points.

Leeds can end up on 51 points, but play Brentford.
Brentford can end up on 54 points, but play Leeds and Everton.
Everton can end up on 52 points, but play Brentford.

Everton win all their games and end up on 52 points. That means Brentford are down to 51 points, along with us and Leeds, but they have to play each other and can't both win, so one of them ends up on less than 51 points and therefore below us.

Brentford win all their games and end up on 54 points, knocking Leeds down to 48 points and Everton down to 49 points; both below our 51.

Leeds win all their games and end up on 51 points, knocking Brentford down to 51 points also, but as Brentford still have to play Everton and they can't both win, one of Everton or Brentford ends up on less than 51 points and therefore below us.

[joey13]

It is in our hands;
We can end up on 51 points.

Leeds can end up on 51 points, but play Brentford.
Brentford can end up on 54 points, but play Leeds and Everton.
Everton can end up on 52 points, but play Brentford.

Everton win all their games and end up on 52 points. That means Brentford are down to 51 points, along with us and Leeds, but they have to play each other and can't both win, so one of them ends up on less than 51 points and therefore below us.

Brentford win all their games and end up on 54 points, knocking Leeds down to 48 points and Everton down to 49 points; both below our 51.

Leeds win all their games and end up on 51 points, knocking Brentford down to 51 points also, but as Brentford still have to play Everton and they can't both win, one of Everton or Brentford ends up on less than 51 points and therefore below us.

Top post that

[bobinho]

Really? So if we win every game you think we'll go down? Didn't think so. OK - not realistic, I give you, but things really are in our own hands

Even winning 5 out of the last night (beating say Norwich, Watford, Soton, Newcastle and one (or more) from Wolves, Newcastle, Villa) is extremely likely to see us safe. I don't think this scenario is so outlandish, quite frankly

Alternatively, we could just give up........

Who’s “we”? If you are talking about fans it’s irrelevant really, because we can’t affect results, so me thinking the worst won’t relegate us. Only poor results will do that. We’ve had far too many, and we’ll have more. Beating Everton was unusual in that they were in the bottom 8 and we took all three points. We haven’t been effective against those around us all season.

I’m resigned to relegation. I don’t want it, but I think it’s highly likely it will happen. I’ve renewed my ST, and I’ll continue to go and support the team. But whatever my attitude towards it, it’s irrelevant. I (we) want the team to win every game. That won’t happen. We want the team to win more games in the last 1/4 of the season than they have in the first 3/4, but that won’t happen. If you are talking about us being able to stay up mathematically then it may still be possible, but to rely on us winning every game to do it is akin to stumbling across Lucan playing cards with Presley in the pool room of the coach and horses.

We need other teams to lose games. Lots of them. Teams like Leeds and Everton. They won today. It’s just not in our own hands anymore. The required scenario for us to stay up without help from others is just too outlandish to contemplate - that’s not giving up, it’s waking up.

[Goalposts]

I’m not shocked by the result.united are as shapeless and blunt in attack as anyone is theirs league considering the array of alleged superstars they possess

[bobinho]

It is in our hands;
We can end up on 51 points.

Leeds can end up on 51 points, but play Brentford.
Brentford can end up on 54 points, but play Leeds and Everton.
Everton can end up on 52 points, but play Brentford.

Everton win all their games and end up on 52 points. That means Brentford are down to 51 points, along with us and Leeds, but they have to play each other and can't both win, so one of them ends up on less than 51 points and therefore below us.

Brentford win all their games and end up on 54 points, knocking Leeds down to 48 points and Everton down to 49 points; both below our 51.

Leeds win all their games and end up on 51 points, knocking Brentford down to 51 points also, but as Brentford still have to play Everton and they can't both win, one of Everton or Brentford ends up on less than 51 points and therefore below us.

Wow. I just started on this, and you’ve done it for me. So. It’s mathematically possible.

Great work Duncan. No sarcasm here, I genuinely mean that. It was blowing my head.

Right…. How much? How much is anyone betting on this happening?

As you can all see from Duncan’s good work here, there is far too much for our team to do. I think it helps show that help from outside is needed.

[jurek]

I agree we need to try and win all our remaining fixtures
but the chances of that are more than very slim.
But we will need to win at least four of them as well as hope Everton
fail to do the same.

It's a very tall order I think but not impossible.

A win at Norwich will make it more possible and leave us
with some hope that we can do it.

[Goddy]

Who’s “we”? If you are talking about fans it’s irrelevant really, because we can’t affect results, so me thinking the worst won’t relegate us. Only poor results will do that. We’ve had far too many, and we’ll have more. Beating Everton was unusual in that they were in the bottom 8 and we took all three points. We haven’t been effective against those around us all season.

I’m resigned to relegation. I don’t want it, but I think it’s highly likely it will happen. I’ve renewed my ST, and I’ll continue to go and support the team. But whatever my attitude towards it, it’s irrelevant. I (we) want the team to win every game. That won’t happen. We want the team to win more games in the last 1/4 of the season than they have in the first 3/4, but that won’t happen. If you are talking about us being able to stay up mathematically then it may still be possible, but to rely on us winning every game to do it is akin to stumbling across Lucan playing cards with Presley in the pool room of the coach and horses.

We need other teams to lose games. Lots of them. Teams like Leeds and Everton. They won today. It’s just not in our own hands anymore. The required scenario for us to stay up without help from others is just too outlandish to contemplate - that’s not giving up, it’s waking up.

Who's 'we' - ha ha

(Sighs). I won't give up on Burnley - is that OK for you - but I will give up on you.

Have a good evening, sir.

Oh, by the way, anyone remember the season Leicester stayed up (14/15 season, I believe). After they'd played 29 games that season they were on 19 points and stayed up in mid-table on 41 points. It can, and has been done before

[duncandisorderly]

Wow. I just started on this, and you’ve done it for me. So. It’s mathematically possible.

Great work Duncan. No sarcasm here, I genuinely mean that. It was blowing my head.

Right…. How much? How much is anyone betting on this happening?

As you can all see from Duncan’s good work here, there is far too much for our team to do. I think it helps show that help from outside is needed.

My post shows the opposite of that! We don't need help from outside in theory because they can't all win every game, but we can.

Obviously none of us will win every game, but given the respective fixtures, I'd rather be in our position than Everton's, and it'd take a coin toss to decide whether I'd want to swap places with Leeds - after Palace they have City, Arsenal and Chelsea in a row.

[Spijed]

At least the Southampton & Wolves games are against a set of players who look like they are just going through the motions.

[bobinho]

Yeah it proves that mathematically it’s possible Duncan - and I suspected that was the case when I started with the maths that blew my napper…. But it isn’t just about that, and I think everyone knows that.

My point was a very simple one, we need other teams to lose, because we won’t win all our remaining games. Of course I don’t KNOW that for sure, but I’d bet everything I have on us not reaching 51 points and staying up.

I wouldn’t bet on us going down… because I think we can make it if we play at our best and get back to regularly showing that strong jaw we showed against Everton, as opposed to the glass jaw we have shown too many times - especially against the teams we should have shown up against. At this time I believe relegation is more likely than staying up. I don’t believe it’s just in our hands.

[duncandisorderly]

The average league position of the teams we have to play is 12th.
Everton - 9th
Leeds - 7th
Brentford - 11th.

So we have the easiest run in and are the only ones with their fate in their own hands.

With each game that passes these things change, and we play twice (Norwich and West Ham, both away) before Everton play again - a run of games that has them playing Leicester, Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester again whilst we have three home games against Southampton, Wolves and Villa with Watford away.
IF we are on the same points, or one point behind, after we play West Ham then I'd bet any money that we're above Everton after the following four games.

[Spijed]

Add Villa to the list of teams that look like they are just treating the remaining games as a training exercise.

[boatshed bill]

At least the Southampton & Wolves games are against a set of players who look like they are just going through the motions.

Yes, disgusting isn't it?

[CrosspoolClarets]

I’m being boring but been saying for weeks - 38pts, 38pts, 38pts. That’s 4 wins 2 draws 3 defeats.

A point per game over the season normally stays up, anything less needs luck and relying on others which is very stressful for us fans and definitely the players.

It’s like playing matchplay at golf, you always assume the other guy will knock it in. The approach today was “Everton are playing a useless United, they may well win, we need 38 points regardless”.