38

[NRC]

Magic numbers table not working for me, but I reckon Everton have a realistic potential of 3 more wins in them, which makes 38 points needed, subject to maintaining a superior goal difference.

When was it last necessary for such a points total to survive?

[jdrobbo]

2010-11 would be my guess?

C46E929C-0D6D-46C0-993F-5DF8786F25A0.jpeg (161.25 KiB) Viewed 7088 times

[NewClaret]

2010-11 would be my guess?

C46E929C-0D6D-46C0-993F-5DF8786F25A0.jpeg

40 is my guess on what we’ll need. 3 more wins!

[ClaretMov]

3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws will do

[Falcon]

Even if Everton got to 38 I can't seeing both them AND Leeds getting there

[Iloveyoubrady]

38 won’t be needed. Don’t know what makes people think both Leeds and Everton will go on mad winning streaks now. Think two wins for each would be max which means we should need about 4 more points. Maybe 5.

[ElectroClaret]

38 won’t be needed. Don’t know what makes people think both Leeds and Everton will go on mad winning streaks now.

I didn't think WE would. Just shows how things can change.

[martin_p]

38 won’t be needed. Don’t know what makes people think both Leeds and Everton will go on mad winning streaks now. Think two wins for each would be max which means we should need about 4 more points. Maybe 5.

Leeds are already in a good run of form, 11 points and unbeaten in their last 5 I think. It’s how they react to a (probable) defeat against City at the weekend that will be key for them.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Been thinking we need 38 since Christmas and am not changing now.

Everton may get 37 but even that is a little unlikely, the risk for them is how they do at Watford with the worst home playing the worst away., the second one is how they do in their winnable home games against Brentford and Palace. Stumble in those and we may not need 38 but lets assume we will.

[Falcon]

I reckon 35 will likely be enough - BUT I wouldn't rely on it being enough.

[jdrobbo]

I always say 36, yet it’s often just 35. This season I think we will need 37 points

[summitclaret]

39 and on goal difference.

[jedi_master]

37 to stay up on goal difference, in my opinion.

[ElectroClaret]

I'd take 37 now, and gamble that it's enough.
It probably will be.

[Lancasterclaret]

If we can win on Saturday, we'd really, really, really be in with a real chance

[Commy]

Two of Leeds recent wins were Watford and Norwich. I think another was against on the beach Wolves. Both Leeds (Mon) and Everton look like they don't want to concede so might have the problems we had with not creating chances. At least we are now taking a chance and going for it, so if we do go down at least we will have put up a fight.

[claretburns]

2001/02 36
2002/03 42
2003/04 33
2004/05 33
2005/06 34
2006/07 38
2007/08 36
2008/09 34
2009/10 30
2010/11 39
2011/12 36
2012/13 36
2013/14 33
2014/15 35
2015/16 37
2016/17 34
2017/18 33
2018/19 34
2019/20 34
2020/21 28

The above shows the points 18th place has had for the past 20 years, going off the past 10 years, you'd hope 38 would be enough.

[IanMcL]

Everyone are not up to it.
Leeds are. They can win one and lose one without batting an eye.

[thelaughingclaret]

I just want us to keep winning. Win on Saturday and it puts more pressure on Everton and Leeds. That is what we need to do. Keep this moment going!

[claretandy]

With our goal difference, 37 will be enough.

[jdrobbo]

2001/02 36
2002/03 42
2003/04 33
2004/05 33
2005/06 34
2006/07 38
2007/08 36
2008/09 34
2009/10 30
2010/11 39
2011/12 36
2012/13 36
2013/14 33
2014/15 35
2015/16 37
2016/17 34
2017/18 33
2018/19 34
2019/20 34
2020/21 28

The above shows the points 18th place has had for the past 20 years, going off the past 10 years, you'd hope 38 would be enough.

Amazing I’m that in 09-10, 30 points (Burnley’s total) and a GD better than -40 would have kept you in the premier League, where for us, an away win at Wigan would have been enough.

[Foshiznik]

I'm just hoping our players just focus on getting as many points as they can. When you are depending on other clubs to lose then you lose focus.

[dibraidio]

I looked at all the stats for the last 5 games over the last few seasons. If Everton beat Chelsea they will have a higher than average total after 33 games, lose and they're below average.

In 2016 Norwich went down with 34 points after being 17th with 31 points with 5 games to go.
2017 Hull went down with 34 points after being 17th with 30 points with 5 games to go.
2018 Swansea were 15th with 32 points with 5 games to go but took just 1 point to go down with 33.
2019 Cardiff went down with 34 points after being on 31 points with 5 games to go.
2020 Watford were 17th with 28 points with 5 games to go and went down despite picking up 6 points. Villa were 3rd bottom on 27 and stayed up because they picked up 8 points in the last 5 games to finish on 35.
2021 All the teams above 17th could have won 0 points because Fulham were so far behind. They picked up 1 point in the last 5 games and finished 18th on 28.

The point being that if we need 9 points from the last 5 games this season will be an exception.

Funny how so many people expect a team who's won 3 times in their last 17 games to win 3 times in their next 6.
Burnley have won 3 from their last 5.

If you're going to put your money on one team I know which one I'd pick. I'd pick the one with the easier run in.

If we beat Watford we'll be on 34 points from 34 games. We'll be in a great position to reach that 38 point target no matter what Everton or Leeds do.

Is it Saturday yet?

[claptrappers_union]

Added Burnleys points and League position

2001/02 36
2002/03 42
2003/04 33
2004/05 33
2005/06 34
2006/07 38
2007/08 36
2008/09 34
2009/10 30 (30 - 18th - R)
2010/11 39
2011/12 36
2012/13 36
2013/14 33
2014/15 35 (33 - 19th - R)
2015/16 37
2016/17 34 (40 - 16th)
2017/18 33 (54 - 7th)
2018/19 34 (40 -15th)
2019/20 34 (54 - 10th)
2020/21 28 (39 - 17th)

[martin_p]

Funny how so many people expect a team who's won 3 times in their last 17 games to win 3 times in their next 6.
Burnley have won 3 from their last 5.

But given that we’d only won three in our previous 28 games surely your second sentence proves the first possible.

[Lancasterclaret]

But given that we’d only won three in our previous 28 games surely your second sentence proves the first possible.

If we save ourselves from where we where, then we will be used by everyone as an example of how you can survive when it looks extremely unlikely

Still a big if like

[dibraidio]

But given that we’d only won three in our previous 28 games surely your second sentence proves the first possible.

Martin_p, you're right, everyone was saying back in February we've won 1 game all season do you seriously think we can go on and win enough games to survive? 17 points from 12 games later we're out of the bottom three.

Of course it's possible, in 2017 Swansea picked up 13 points from their last 5 games, in 2018 Palace did the same. Palace had won 1 game in the last 10 before that, Swansea had picked up just 1 point from their previous 6 games.

My points was more about the mentality of fans, a lot of us are worried that Everton will start winning all their games but then others are expecting a collapse from Leeds who've picked up 11 points in their last 5 games. We're not very rational and history doesn't really back up the idea that Burnley, Leeds and Everton are going to suddenly start to win all their games.

In recent games at Elland road that was a similar sort of energy to that which we've seen at Turf Moor, our players are up for the challenge, we won't fail for a want of trying. I don't see the same buzz or belief coming out of Goodison.

We can't look beyond 3 points against Watford but at the moment I'd rather be in our situation than Everton's.

[Elizabeth]

If we save ourselves from where we where, then we will be used by everyone as an example of how you can survive when it looks extremely unlikely

Still a big if like

Over the PL period the number of teams who survived when all looked lost is a long list , some in a much worse position than we have been.

That gives me a lot of hope

[EarbyClaret]

I was following the BBC live coverage of the Norwich game. At the end a Newcastle fan posted something like - Burnley 4 wins in 30 need 4 wins from the last 8 games to survive - not going to happen. Hard to argue with that at the time

I think it's the fact that since then we've taken 7 points from 3 games makes us think others could produce something similar

Leeds' run of results is looking a bit better than purely a new manager bounce. The City game will be a good benchmark of their improvement - they lost 7-0(?) at the Etihad earlier in the season. Monday will be tough for them but they don't look like a team that simply roll over any more

Whilst we haven't seen quite the same from Everton they have picked up some unlikely points at home in recent games. They look like they have a minimum of 7 more points in them

However if we can win tomorrow the added pressure on the others may well make their winnable looking games a lot tougher

[Transpennine]

Over the PL period the number of teams who survived when all looked lost is a long list , some in a much worse position than we have been.

That gives me a lot of hope

Is it a long list? WBA in 2005 springs to mind... any more?**

** I'm sure there are loads but I can't think of any...

[Elizabeth]

Yes , it's recognised that as many as 10 teams in different seasons have avoided relegation from much worse positions than we have been in this season

[Swizzlestick]

Leicester season before the title win were something like seven points adrift from safety in April yet survived. Did something silly like seven wins in nine. The rest is history of course.

[buzzclarets79]

Really simple.

Beat Watford, beat Villa next week = 2022/23 Prem football at Turf Moor

[tiger76]

Really simple.

Beat Watford, beat Villa next week = 2022/23 Prem football at Turf Moor

6 points in the next 2 would be great to calm the nerves, and win against Watford and Villa and it's difficult to see how Everton or Leeds can finish above us, let's just deal with today first, then we can focus on Villa.

[andyh]

38 is not going to be enough.
In fact 40 might not be enough for someone…
If we get to 40 I don’t think we will go down. However Leeds and Everton could well get there too. All of us are on decent runs of form.

[dougcollins]

Having the best GD is like gold dust right now.

[alboclaret]

I've been saying for a while whilst being dismissed that 40 might go down this year.
It's becoming real now. We need 40 unless one of the others has a bad turn of form.

[alboclaret]

Having the best GD is like gold dust right now.

Really hoping we don't get stuffed at spurs for this reason. They seam yo be scoring plenty recently. 5 goal turn around on Everton can easily be turned round but Leeds will have to outdoing us thankfully

[NRC]

yep, I'm upgrading the OP 38 to 40. I think Everton have at least 3 more wins in them and Leeds a couple

[Spijed]

Really hoping we don't get stuffed at spurs for this reason. They seam yo be scoring plenty recently. 5 goal turn around on Everton can easily be turned round but Leeds will have to outdoing us thankfully

Regardless of any goals we'll concede at Spurs it's now impossible for Leeds to make up a -19 goal difference.

[aggi]

Magic numbers table not working for me, but I reckon Everton have a realistic potential of 3 more wins in them, which makes 38 points needed, subject to maintaining a superior goal difference.

When was it last necessary for such a points total to survive?

Magic numbers should be working here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Obviously stats wise it all looks ok for us but there's so few games left that it could go any way.

[SouthLondonexile]

I agree we need to have a target. I believe that Michael Jackson’s approach is spot on and take each game as it comes.
I can do the maths the same as everyone but for me, we may need at least 41 points to stay in the premier league .

[alboclaret]

Regardless of any goals we'll concede at Spurs it's now impossible for Leeds to make up a -19 goal difference.

Obviously

[boatshed bill]

Regardless of any goals we'll concede at Spurs it's now impossible for Leeds to make up a -19 goal difference.

True, as long as we match their results.

[Goddy]

I can do the maths the same as everyone but for me, we may need at least 41 points to stay in the premier league .

If we need 41 points to be ahead of Leeds and Everton it might well be Southampton who go down (having lost their last 3 matches.....which us a distinct possibility.....no, probability, in my view)

[tiger76]

Brentford losing 1-0 at OT, now we could do with them still having something to play for given their last 3 are Southampton, Everton and Leeds.

[Marty Dobson]

Brentford are losing 2-0 at Old Trafford 2nd half. On 40 pts they would have 3 interesting games left if they lose. Home to Southampton also on 40pts next. Away to Everton and home to Leeds on final day. I'm hoping they lose tonight and against Southampton. They will then need something from the final 2 games to be sure of staying up so would have to take points from Everton or Leeds. Of course Brentford and Southampton can avoid all the excitement and pressure of the last 2 games with a draw in their game. Conspiracy theory anyone ?

[alboclaret]

I'd fancy Brentford to do Southampton if it's the Southampton that turned up here other week

[NewClaret]

Brentford are losing 2-0 at Old Trafford 2nd half. On 40 pts they would have 3 interesting games left if they lose. Home to Southampton also on 40pts next. Away to Everton and home to Leeds on final day. I'm hoping they lose tonight and against Southampton. They will then need something from the final 2 games to be sure of staying up so would have to take points from Everton or Leeds. Of course Brentford and Southampton can avoid all the excitement and pressure of the last 2 games with a draw in their game. Conspiracy theory anyone ?

Can see the Brentford v Southampton game being the direst 0-0 ever!

[willsclarets]

you can drive yourself mad going through the games predicting results. Everton might beat leicester then lose to watford. We might lose to villa then beat spurs. It's going to the wire, I just hope we have it in our hands on the final day. Can't ask for more than that given where we were.