Stronger 11 last season.

[Stayingup]

Question I would ask is what is our team this season?

[TheFamilyCat]

Unfortunately this is completely lost on people.

Chelsea got called ‘absolute s***e’ by someone today.

I wonder how they would describe Preston, Rotherham, Reading et al.

Chelsea, Sterling apart, were very poor in the first half. After we'd gifted them the lead and the confidence that goes with it, they looked a completely different beast though.

[RVclaret]

Chelsea, Sterling apart, were very poor in the first half. After we'd gifted them the lead and the confidence that goes with it, they looked a completely different beast though.

Again it depends how are defining ‘very poor’. They’ve still got world class players who are so many levels above last seasons competitors. I’d say the gap between Chelsea and Championship is like us vs Salford the other week. Also I’d say we were pretty good first half too.

[BleedingClaret]

To concede a goal so late is devastating. The whole away end just went flat. It was hard to believe what we’d seen. You looked round and everyone looked devastated. We were so close to winning the game and going top of the league for a day at least.
It wasn’t to be, and in the cold light of day this was probably a good point given how the game had gone for ninety minutes plus a lot more. West Brom were better than us on the night and I’m sure they’d have been shaking their heads had they not got something from the game.

Even so, it’s five league games now without defeat. We can’t play well every game, no team does that, and we looked tired in this game. There was a real lack of energy about the performance and that’s what led, I’m sure, to us giving the ball away so much.

Not the finished article, 8 games in when building a team with a lot of new players, turned out quite well in the end

UTC

[JohnMac]

We have the players to replicate some of last season's exploits but are up against opposition far superior.

Trafford's kicking is nowhere near what Muric produced so putting our speed merchants through on goal so is no longer a weapon to utilise to any degree of success.

The key player injuries are unsettling and perhaps our recruitment is now based on what profit can be gained at the expense of footballing success as a team.

[Murger]

Agree with the OP. We are not stronger in any position on the pitch. From the keeper up to the attacking mids. Foster has surprised me so I’ll give Kompany that 1. Last seasons team versus this 1, lasts win hands down.

[JohnMac]

Muric
Roberts
Beyer
Harwood bellis
Ian
Cullen
Cork
Brownhill
Zaroury
Benson
Barnes

More or less the side that were destroyed at the Etihad last season so you can't compare as we haven't conceded 6 this season (yet).

[BleedingClaret]

Muric
Roberts
Beyer
Harwood bellis
Ian
Cullen
Cork
Brownhill
Zaroury
Benson
Barnes

More or less the side that were destroyed at the Etihad last season so you can't compare as we haven't conceded 6 this season (yet).

You beat me to it

I was just about to post that there’s no way last years team would have conceded 3’s 4’s & 5,s against top tier premier league sides
Just the 6 against City

[lucs86]

We're not going to keep a lot of clean sheets, we need to click going forward to create more chances and outscore opponents. It's not surprising we've not clicked going forward yet, we didn't last season until 10 games in with all the new signings.
The problem I think this season is it's going to take much longer to get that fluency upfront as we've got so many forwards and we're playing different combinations every game.

[claretonthecoast1882]

After 8 league games last season we had managed to beat Huddersfield, Wigan and Millwall.

[Pearcey]

This season is the premier league in case you haven’t realised. THB is still in the championship and Tella isn’t playing football in the Bundesliga. Some insane stuff being written on here.

[Sleeping Cat]

This season is the premier league in case you haven’t realised. THB is still in the championship and Tella isn’t playing football in the Bundesliga. Some insane stuff being written on here.

If THB was with us now, he would be starting.
If Tella was with us now, he would be starting.

[jlup1980]

We have a decent group of players. VK just needs to stick with an 11 (or at least a back 4!) and try to build an understanding between that group of players. Personally I think he needs to go back to the successful elements of last season. Those who understand the system. The difficulty I have at the moment is whether Cullen should be starting. He doesn't seem to have the physicality needed. Maybe something like the following?

Muric
Roberts Ekdal Beyer Taylor
Cork Brownhill
Amdouni Berge Zaroury
Foster

There's PL experience through the team, mixed with an understanding of the VK system. The CB pairing picks itself when they're both fit for me. They were the best pairing we had last season by a long way. We have to try and get a balance between the old and the new. Who knows though, I wouldn't guess at what VK might do next.

[RickyBobby]

The big misses for me are Barnes and Cork.
Barnes brought a lot to the club, not just his work ethic on the pitch but his influence in the dressing room. Cork last season was brilliant when needed in midfield, we really could do with his experience in situations like the second half on Saturday, but for some reason VK would rather stick a 19 year old in a situation like that then someone with a vast amount of PL experience!

[Bordeauxclaret]

Muric
Roberts
Beyer
Harwood bellis
Ian
Cullen
Cork
Brownhill
Zaroury
Benson
Barnes

More or less the side that were destroyed at the Etihad last season so you can't compare as we haven't conceded 6 this season (yet).

Only five of that team started against City last season.

[CoolClaret]

Muric
Roberts
Beyer
Harwood bellis
Ian
Cullen
Cork
Brownhill
Zaroury
Benson
Barnes

More or less the side that were destroyed at the Etihad last season so you can't compare as we haven't conceded 6 this season (yet).

A fair few missing from that side in all honesty!

Not to mention City were white hot then - just battered RB Leipzig 7-0 and Pep was keen to put the ‘apprentice’ Kompany to the sword.

[CoolClaret]

This season is the premier league in case you haven’t realised. THB is still in the championship and Tella isn’t playing football in the Bundesliga. Some insane stuff being written on here.

Tella bagged his first goal for Leverkusen in Europe the other night.

Not signing him early in the window when we were ******* about with low ball bids was a travesty IMO.

He loved it at Burnley, we loved him and he had something that non of the squad had nor the new incomings have.

[KateR]

Muric

Roberts
Beyer
Harwood bellis
Ian

Cullen
Cork
Brownhill

Zaroury
Benson
Barnes


Tell me I’m wrong

You're wrong, in fact totally wrong if you're comparing last seasons team at this point of the season, maybe not so wrong, if it's the team towards the end of last season but you'd still be wrong

[dsr]

Our 11 that went up would absolutely destroy our current 11. Open to debate, but I’m pretty sure I’m correct. Thoughts?

If our current XI would be destroyed by last time's XI, then why didn't Luton (improved since last year) have more success against our weakened team? If we've gone to mid-table championship level, you'd think Luton could have won fairly easily.

[CoolClaret]

If our current XI would be destroyed by last time's XI, then why didn't Luton (improved since last year) have more success against our weakened team? If we've gone to mid-table championship level, you'd think Luton could have won fairly easily.

You could argue they did. Certainly posed more threat and had better chances than they did last time we went to Kennilworth Road.

If you’re into stats like xG and chances created they actually outperformed us in that department.

[RVclaret]

You could argue they did. Certainly posed more threat and had better chances than they did last time we went to Kennilworth Road.

If you’re into stats like xG and chances created they actually outperformed us in that department.

Their chances and xG mainly came from set pieces or headers. Notoriously more difficult to score from yet score high xG given their closer proximity to the goal. It’s one of the issues with this metric imo.

Also looking at xG without recognising the game state is not the way to use xG. A team chasing a match, particularly an equaliser, is more likely to create more chances and higher xG.

As for the game, we were far better this season than last season there. I know you love Tella but he was absolutely bullied in that one last season.

[Blatherwickstattoo]

I just genuinely feel

Muric
Maatsen
Harwood bellis
Tella
Zaroury
Benson

Are stronger than the players playing in their positions so far this season. Understand benson isn’t fit but the rest we should have signed and zaroury and muric should be given a chance.

[Blatherwickstattoo]

Also think cork is a far better footballer than Brownhill still at his age.

[CoolClaret]

Their chances and xG mainly came from set pieces or headers. Notoriously more difficult to score from yet score high xG given their closer proximity to the goal. It’s one of the issues with this metric imo.

Also looking at xG without recognising the game state is not the way to use xG. A team chasing a match, particularly an equaliser, is more likely to create more chances and higher xG.

We were far better this season than last season there. I know you love Tella but he was absolutely bullied in that one last season.

But they were chasing the game last year against us and didn’t create more chances?

We were crap in that second half at Luton, they dictated the play - that’s just facts.

Not sure what your argument is at all tbh - you use xG to look at the quality of chances created.

A comprehensive win is being well clear on xG.

Tella not having his best game against a low block - oh well.

[RVclaret]

I just genuinely feel

Muric
Maatsen
Harwood bellis
Tella
Zaroury
Benson

Are stronger than the players playing in their positions so far this season. Understand benson isn’t fit but the rest we should have signed and zaroury and muric should be given a chance.

It’s hard to know isn’t it?

THB lacked pace and was quite small, is that why a Prem club didn’t buy him? I loved his ball playing ability but it’s worth highlighting that suited us last season.

Maatsen we clearly wanted but hard to argue he’d make us better defensively, given that was his main weakness? (Also would reduce the overall teams current height further)

Zaroury was suspended for 3 games, then didn’t impress on his sub appearance at Forest.

Benson didn’t have a pre season (at all) and subbed at HT against Villa after being part of allowing Digne the freedom of the Longside.

Tella who knows, the club obviously wanted him and got messed around by Southampton.

Muric, well that one has been gone over a few times now. I had no issues with him starting in the Prem but given our urgency to buy a new keeper it seems management had other ideas there. Hard to know without seeing him against this level of team. I watched Raya and Ederson both struggle playing around the press yesterday and Onana against us the other week, 3 of the best in the business.

I think the main argument is the balance, consistency and players fully knowing their roles in that team vs what we’ve seen so far. But worth mentioning they were very rigid with some pretty poor performances in those first 10 or so games.

[RVclaret]

But they were chasing the game last year against us and didn’t create more chances?

We were crap in that second half at Luton, they dictated the play - that’s just facts.

Not sure what your argument is at all tbh - you use xG to look at the quality of chances created.

A comprehensive win is being well clear on xG.

Tella not having his best game against a low block - oh well.

Or, they were very good second half, we stood up to the task, just about, and got the win.

And they didn’t play a low block against us at all last season. In fact their high press caused us all sorts of issues playing out. Wonder why Muric didn’t just ping a few long for Tella to control and score from if that’s how easy it is.

And I disagree with a comprehensive win being well clear on xG. You could dominate a game, deserve to win the game and yet still have a level-ish xG. But that’s a discussion for another time.

[claretonthecoast1882]

On the plus side, if we aren't any good, the new players poor and we had a better side last season then we will be spared a lot of different moany threads all saying the same things over and over so there is some joy to be had.

[Commy]

Am I the only one that thinks they are playing these players to improve their value and hoping they learn and improve fast enough to keep us up? Watching Mission to Burnley VK said that we had to buy young players to make a profit on and sell two or three a year. Buying young players and making large profits allows you to buy better players on higher wages. The problem is that we seem to have gone mad at buying players in the same position.

[CoolClaret]

Or, they were very good second half, we stood up to the task, just about, and got the win.

And they didn’t play a low block against us at all last season. In fact their high press caused us all sorts of issues playing out. Wonder why Muric didn’t just ping a few long for Tella to control and score from if that’s how easy it is.

And I disagree with a comprehensive win being well clear on xG. You could dominate a game, deserve to win the game and yet still have a level-ish xG. But that’s a discussion for another time.

Sorry, meant three at the back not a low block.

Disagree on your last point and I’ll point you to Liverpool at home when we won 2-0 In 2016.

They had 81% of the ball and didn’t look scoring once. The game is ultimately dependant on getting shots on target and creating good quality chances - the rest is just noise. You win games by creating more quality chances (and converting them) than your opponent; of course there’s variance and it’s not always quite that straightforward but that’s how it normally balances out after the course of a season .

Last season in the second half against Luton we didn’t allow them one shot on target. This year it was 3 with 1.2xG conceded to them in one half of football.

Talk about finding Tella or other players - in the same fixture Muric connected on 25/35 of his passes vs 16/43 for Trafford, with the biggest differential being on long passes - 9/18 for Muric & 8/35 for Trafford.

[CoolClaret]

Am I the only one that thinks they are playing these players to improve their value and hoping they learn and improve fast enough to keep us up? Watching Mission to Burnley VK said that we had to buy young players to make a profit on and sell two or three a year. Buying young players and making large profits allows you to buy better players on higher wages. The problem is that we seem to have gone mad at buying players in the same position.

If that’s true is that good enough for us to take as supporters?

Simply bothered about maximising profit on player sales than fielding a team that gives us the best chance of competing?

No issue with bedding players in and giving time off the bench like - as pretty much every club in existence does.

The balance isn’t there at all. Gone gung ho on that approach to our detriment, IMO.

[Sleeping Cat]

The balance isn’t there at all. Gone gung ho on that approach to our detriment, IMO.

And this is the crux of it for me. Our game management is awful this season, possibly a result of playing too many inexperienced players. Maybe he's not a starter, but Cork coming on should always be one of the first subs we make.

[dsr]

You could argue they did. Certainly posed more threat and had better chances than they did last time we went to Kennilworth Road.

If you’re into stats like xG and chances created they actually outperformed us in that department.

I'm not into xG. Some of its results are nonsense, for example the Spurs match where (according to xG) we should have lost by less than 1 goal. 2.40 to 1.67. Largely because, for example, Maddison's goal (when he was given all the time he needed to have a shot from the edge of the box, as if it was a free kick without a wall) was given xG 0.06. More like 0.5 for a PL good player in that position, IMO. Certainly he would score more than 1 in 17 times. Brunn Larson's free kick in that game, with a wall set up, had a higher xG of 0.07.

We had better chances than last time we went to Kenilworth Road as well, if I remember rightly. Barnes' penalty was pretty much all we had, wasn't it?

[CoolClaret]

I'm not into xG. Some of its results are nonsense, for example the Spurs match where (according to xG) we should have lost by less than 1 goal. 2.40 to 1.67. Largely because, for example, Maddison's goal (when he was given all the time he needed to have a shot from the edge of the box, as if it was a free kick without a wall) was given xG 0.06. More like 0.5 for a PL good player in that position, IMO. Certainly he would score more than 1 in 17 times. Brunn Larson's free kick in that game, with a wall set up, had a higher xG of 0.07.

We had better chances than last time we went to Kenilworth Road as well, if I remember rightly. Barnes' penalty was pretty much all we had, wasn't it?

Well it's not nonsense at all, which is why it's used and is the best predictor of long term failure/success -

On Maddison's goal it was 0.37 xG, the 0.05xG chance was from a blocked shot in the area.

My argument re performances at Luton is that we had a better control of the game in the away fixture in the Championship.. The data says we created 2 big chances to their 1, where as in the Prem that was 1 a piece.

Again though, the overriding point is for the money spent, we have just not yet seen the value - at least in mine and many fans' opinions.

Of course there's time for that to change but I'd expect more instant impact given the financial outlay.

[Sleeping Cat]

I just genuinely feel

Muric
Maatsen
Harwood bellis
Tella
Zaroury
Benson

Are stronger than the players playing in their positions so far this season. Understand benson isn’t fit but the rest we should have signed and zaroury and muric should be given a chance.

Muric - Definitely plenty who think he should be starting over Trafford. I think they're similar level. Draw
Maatsen - Brilliant last season and what we needed in a possession dominant team. This season would need to be different and would massively depend more on his defensive solidity. Doesn't play at LB for Chelsea, plays as a wide midfielder and I wonder how exposed we would be with him & Koleosho on the left. I'll probably get crucified for this but, for left back at this level I would go with Taylor. Maatsen a better player, but not a better defender. Weaker
TBH - He was a mainstay in the team last season over the current crop of defenders and certainly looks better than O'Shea so far. Stronger
Tella - Top Scorer last year will always be missed. Depends who he's coming in for and where but given he would've been a familiar with the place, system and those around him I think he starts off Stronger
Zaroury - Really not got going this season, L2 Salford apart. Deserves more time on the pitch to prove himself at this level. will go with a Draw
Benson - Had his better performances as an impact sub last year. Hard to argue he should be starting in the league above. Weaker

[dsr]

Well it's not nonsense at all, which is why it's used and is the best predictor of long term failure/success -

On Maddison's goal it was 0.37 xG, the 0.05xG chance was from a blocked shot in the area.

My argument re performances at Luton is that we had a better control of the game in the away fixture in the Championship.. The data says we created 2 big chances to their 1, where as in the Prem that was 1 a piece.

Again though, the overriding point is for the money spent, we have just not yet seen the value - at least in mine and many fans' opinions.

Of course there's time for that to change but I'd expect more instant impact given the financial outlay.

That's another of the xG nonsenses. This site (understat) gives Maddison xG 0.06, yours gives it 0.37. How can the science be so inexact that there are such wild differences?

https://understat.com/match/21929

[boatshed bill]

It’s embarrassing. Especially how we managed to spend £100m and still be worse.

Our net spend since VK came in is approximately 80million euros.

[StayingDown4Ever]

Our net spend since VK came in is approximately 80million euros.

Oh, that’s not too bad then.

[CoolClaret]

That's another of the xG nonsenses. This site (understat) gives Maddison xG 0.06, yours gives it 0.37. How can the science be so inexact that there are such wild differences?

https://understat.com/match/21929

SofaScore & FOTMob reporting the same; it’s actually 0.09xG and 0.37 xGOT

Still the point stands - it’s not nonsense, it’s literally historic data from shots from that same position.

If it was nonsense it wouldn’t be used so widely at all.

[Newcastleclaret93]

SofaScore & FOTMob reporting the same; it’s actually 0.09xG and 0.37 xGOT

Still the point stands - it’s not nonsense, it’s literally historic data from shots from that same position.

If it was nonsense it wouldn’t be used so widely at all.

Interesting stat. Dyches Everton have a higher Xg this season than Man City

[CoolClaret]

Interesting stat. Dyches Everton have a higher Xg this season than Man City

Yep, they’ve been making quality chances just couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net.

Obviously DCL returning to fitness and the acquisition of Harrison has helped them and will continue to help them out from here on.

[boatshed bill]

Oh, that’s not too bad then.

Not when you consider that so much of the old squad needed replacing.

[AlargeClaret]

It’s probs be about 5-4 with last seasons “ peak XI” just shading it . The likes of Tella /Maatsen /THB/Benson/Muric/Zaroury giving us the edge . Bearing in mind we’d have to duplicate Cullen/Brownhill /Roberts ect!

[Tall Paul]

Yep, they’ve been making quality chances just couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net.

Obviously DCL returning to fitness and the acquisition of Harrison has helped them and will continue to help them out from here on.

Yes, Everton should be fine this season, comfortably midtable.

[Jakubs Tash]

Yes, Everton should be fine this season, comfortably midtable.

Everton have had a VERY favourable first few fixtures (Arsenal apart). You would hope their XG would be decent and it’s a good job they’ve picked up a couple of wins. Much tougher challenges lie in wait for them.

[Newcastleclaret93]

Yes, Everton should be fine this season, comfortably midtable.

Suspect they will finish 10th to 12th

[ClaretPete001]

Everton signed Beto and Harrison late - if they can keep DCL fit they will be ok.

[dsr]

SofaScore & FOTMob reporting the same; it’s actually 0.09xG and 0.37 xGOT

Still the point stands - it’s not nonsense, it’s literally historic data from shots from that same position.

If it was nonsense it wouldn’t be used so widely at all.

The basic figure is nonsense. If you just use the basic figure, you come to the conclusion that Burnley v Spurs was a close game, which I stand by is nonsense.

As a tool, it needs to be used with care and with context.

For example, a year or two back we lost at Old Trafford with Hennessey in goal. One of the United players had a shot with a very low xG, about 0.03, which was an absolute piledriver into the top corner which Hennessey just got a hand to and pushed it onto the post. It was a terrific save, but Ronaldo tapped in the rebound (xG about 0.7). If xG had been useful as a blunt instrument, we could have looked at United's xG of about 1.3 total and realised that had Hennessey not made that save, it would have been less than half that - which is absolutely true. But if we say that low xG is better, without considering context, we would have to conclude that saving the shot was a mistake.

What does xGOT mean? I know it's expected goals on target, but is it saying that 63% a goalkeeper would be expected to save that particular Maddison shot, or is it saying that of a selection of shots from that place, only on target shots to be counted, it would be expected to be saved 63% of the time?

[CoolClaret]

The basic figure is nonsense. If you just use the basic figure, you come to the conclusion that Burnley v Spurs was a close game, which I stand by is nonsense.

As a tool, it needs to be used with care and with context.

For example, a year or two back we lost at Old Trafford with Hennessey in goal. One of the United players had a shot with a very low xG, about 0.03, which was an absolute piledriver into the top corner which Hennessey just got a hand to and pushed it onto the post. It was a terrific save, but Ronaldo tapped in the rebound (xG about 0.7). If xG had been useful as a blunt instrument, we could have looked at United's xG of about 1.3 total and realised that had Hennessey not made that save, it would have been less than half that - which is absolutely true. But if we say that low xG is better, without considering context, we would have to conclude that saving the shot was a mistake.

What does xGOT mean? I know it's expected goals on target, but is it saying that 63% a goalkeeper would be expected to save that particular Maddison shot, or is it saying that of a selection of shots from that place, only on target shots to be counted, it would be expected to be saved 63% of the time?

You're massively over thinking it.

xG doesn't suggest that it was a close game at all. It suggests that Spurs more than made enough chances to win the game.

On xGOT - say it was 0.5 xGOT, it just means that a shot on target from said hypothetical position, historically goes in the goal 50% of the time.

Remember - xG doesn't factor in how clinical any player for a paticular team is - it's just a hystorical average.. Plenty of players routinely outperform / underperform xG.

It's just a measure of the quality of chances created vs historical data... That and chances created / big chances created is as good as it gets in showing how well a team has done in creating opportunities to score.

[dsr]

You're massively over thinking it.

xG doesn't suggest that it was a close game at all. It suggests that Spurs more than made enough chances to win the game.

Out of interest, how close does xG have to be to suggest that it was close? 0.5 difference is normally called a draw on "xG league tables", so I would have thought 0.73 would qualify as a narrow win. From me watching the match without a calculator, it looked like we got tubbed. No?

[Quicknick]

I think last season's strongest 11 would have been thumped by the teams we have lost to.