Lack of goals

[aggi]

I expected our defence to be weak this season, my pre-season prediction was we'd get hammered more than one, but I thought we'd at least score a decent number of goals.

But, we've got one of the lowest numbers of shots attempted, expected goals and actual goals in the league. It's gone under the radar a bit with how poor we've been in other areas of the pitch but we've been struggling to score as well and today really highlighted that:

[boatshed bill]

I suppose that VK would have expected most of our goal threat to come from Foster, supplemented by Obafemi (shortly)

[agreenwood]

I can’t think of too many teams in PL history who have fielded such a young collection of attacking players and pulled up any trees. They don’t yet have the collective experience to offer the guile required consistently at this level. Foster has looked closest to being up to it, but he’s now missed about half of our league games. There’s a fair drop off in effectiveness between him and his replacements.

Ordinarily you’d require your older heads you provide the blend required and bring on the younger ones, but as today showed, we’re probably a year or two beyond Rodriguez & JBG being effective at this level. It remains to be seen if Redmond can help.

[Rileybobs]

I suppose going into a season with Rodriguez as your second choice striker is always likely to yield a small number of goals.

[StayingDown4Ever]

Original poster is right.

Lots of people said we’d ship a lot of goals, of that we were all agreed on I think.

People were saying however that we were opting for the ‘we’ll score one more than you’ 4-3 type encounters! Mugs!

[BurnleyFC]

Yep, frightening that we’re still having to rely on Rodriguez given how much we spent in the summer.

I thought he was dreadful today - poor movement, heavy touches and a real lack of pace.

[Elizabeth]

Not just on Rodriguez , what goalscoring ability has Luca and Amdouni shown. Where are the goals from midfield. How many goals have our central defenders scored
Even with Foster back and scoring we need goals from other players

[kentonclaret]

I expected our defence to be weak this season, my pre-season prediction was we'd get hammered more than one, but I thought we'd at least score a decent number of goals.

But, we've got one of the lowest numbers of shots attempted, expected goals and actual goals in the league. It's gone under the radar a bit with how poor we've been in other areas of the pitch but we've been struggling to score as well and today really highlighted that:

Had you factored in that our major source of goals Tella would not be here this season, and that our other major source of goals and creativity Benson would not yet have made an appearance or significant contribution?

[Florian]

Wont win out with Jay Rod up front

[123EasyasBFC]

Doesn’t help when you miss a sitter like JBG did today

[Clive 1960]

It's very worrying.

[taio]

Doesn’t help when you miss a sitter like JBG did today

Which one - surely not the header?

[Pickles]

Which one - surely not the header?

I imagine they're referring to the one where he simply has to hit the target. Koleosho down the left, puts it in the box, Gudmundsson front post area doesn't make good enough contact and it ends up going across the keeper and wide. Good chance not taken. A theme.

[KRBFC]

I agree it’s surprising we’re struggling for goals but really not with Jay upfront. I thought he was really poor today, why did he try and score a dipping header from the edge of the box? He had a good yard of space to either lay it into JBG for a tap in or touch it down for a 1v1, summed us up, good moment should’ve turned into a good chance with a little more quality and care.

Also I don’t think rotating wingers every game is helping much, though I do understand VK still trying to figure out his best side and spreading opportunity around. No point playing out of form wingers just for continuity reasons but then how do you find form without a run of games.

[Wile E Coyote]

harsh criticism of Jay Rod, especially the idea that he is past it. Other, younger players were way off the mark in their game, and as a striker he is hardly benefiting from a deluge of chances.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Lack of goals isn’t an issue. We have to factor in the opponents who are only about a goal a game conceded, apart from Luton and Bournemouth where we scored two and but for ref idiocy would have scored two.

Then we can look at the players. Foster is scoring. Amdouni has scoring records left right and centre over the last year for Basel and Switzerland. Tresor has record goal contributions last season. Koleosho looks ace. Jay will get a few.

So this is an instance where looking at the stats is an error, because the stats are recording the wrong things. I’m a massive stats guy but stats people have to acknowledge where the data is insufficient and it is in this case. A better stat would be xG vs the xxG of the opponent based on their earlier games home or away, factoring in difficulty, but this is beyond what gets calculated.

[ralph8]

Need a couple of players in the team who can compete and accurately head the ball.

[JohnMcGreal]

We don't look like we've got a goal in us and we can't keep a clean sheet for toffee.

A pretty dreadful combination by any measure.

[123EasyasBFC]

Which one - surely not the header?

Second half from koleosho cross, simple finish, Amdouni in first minute that header is a shocker to, he even had time to chest it down and hit it

[dsr]

Two problems both came out today. One, we can't score when we're losing. Two, we always concede.

If we go behind, we lose. If we go ahead, we concede an equaliser. The only way we can win this season (so far, anyway) is by going ahead, conceding the equaliser, and scoring again. It worked at Luton and nearly worked at Forest.

We've scored 8 goals this season. 6 of them when the scores were level, and 2 when we were 3+ goals behind.

[SalisburyClaret]

Time to bring Weghorst back?

Only joking

[aggi]

Had you factored in that our major source of goals Tella would not be here this season, and that our other major source of goals and creativity Benson would not yet have made an appearance or significant contribution?

Like most I hoped that our new signings would fill those gaps.

Lack of goals isn’t an issue. We have to factor in the opponents who are only about a goal a game conceded, apart from Luton and Bournemouth where we scored two and but for ref idiocy would have scored two.

Then we can look at the players. Foster is scoring. Amdouni has scoring records left right and centre over the last year for Basel and Switzerland. Tresor has record goal contributions last season. Koleosho looks ace. Jay will get a few.

So this is an instance where looking at the stats is an error, because the stats are recording the wrong things. I’m a massive stats guy but stats people have to acknowledge where the data is insufficient and it is in this case. A better stat would be xG vs the xxG of the opponent based on their earlier games home or away, factoring in difficulty, but this is beyond what gets calculated.

I think we're far enough into the season that who we have played isn't that relevant (I added a quick column to the Magic Numbers spreadsheet to look at the average position of all our opponents, our run so far is only fractionally more difficult than most) and even Man City have conceded goals to Bournemouth, Fulham, Sheff Utd and a few others.

Or, if you prefer the eye test then just think about how many times we've really worked the keeper in a match. Often a few shots from outside the box and that's about it.

MOTD focused on the same thing tonight, it's clearly an issue.

[Cirrus_Minor]

Whe you spend £100 during the close season approaching a return to the Premier league and none of it is for a striker, then we shouldn't be surprised on a lack of goals.

[Silkyskills1]

I suggested we needed a striker( or two) 8 months ago. But we were in party mood. Criminal that this was overlooked. What we have to offer now up front is shambolic.

[Carlos the Great]

For the amount of money we have spent I think our valuation of Tella was way off the mark and us not signing him is proving to be very costly … We have not got anyone who can score on a regular basis .. it’s a decision that’s looking very costly

[willsclarets]

Tella isn't really a striker either, certainly no more than Amdouni who I'm pretty confident will get more career goals than tella.

I think not replacing Weghorst/Barnes was more of a mistake personally. We have goals in this team no doubt, what we have struggled with is a foundation and focal points to build our creativity around.

[northernpowerhouse]

From the BBC: "Former Belgium and Manchester United midfielder Marouane Fellaini, 35, is a free agent after leaving Chinese club Shandong Taishan."

40 goals in 114 games in China. Knows Kompany. Doesn't suit out style at all. Make it happen!

[Zenwisdom]

With 12 corners Wout would improve the currant forward line and that’s saying something .

[Carwin261]

From the BBC: "Former Belgium and Manchester United midfielder Marouane Fellaini, 35, is a free agent after leaving Chinese club Shandong Taishan."

40 goals in 114 games in China. Knows Kompany. Doesn't suit out style at all. Make it happen!

Nooooooooo

[Kilson810]

We are incredibly negative, always looking for the pass backwards rather than a forward pass.

How many times yesterday did we break the Palace press simply to play the ball backwards and let them reorganise

[Anthonini]

We got to get Amdouni and Tresor to be more efficient. Benson and Zaroury should offer more as well. I hope not to see much of jayrod though he seems like a great guy with a class mentality.
There must be ways around starting him. Use Amdouni Obafemi or even midfielders or other wingers instead. You can't tell me Zaroury would do less than Rodriguez... Or Larsen with his speed dribbling and shooting...

[aggi]

We are incredibly negative, always looking for the pass backwards rather than a forward pass.

How many times yesterday did we break the Palace press simply to play the ball backwards and let them reorganise

I think part of the issue is we often break with one, maybe two, players. Players get near the box, look up and don't have any options.

[bumba]

I suggested we needed a striker( or two) 8 months ago. But we were in party mood. Criminal that this was overlooked. What we have to offer now up front is shambolic.

Same as centre half the money wasted elsewhere could really of improved our defence, it's criminal.
We could of signed JBL, Koleosho, Townsend and Redmond for a total of £6 million to add to Zaroury and Benson that would of been enough.
£10 million for Odabert and £8 million for O'Shea could of bought a top centre half.
£15-20 Tresor could of bought a top full back
£19 million on Trafford could of been spent on a striker.
The money on Ramsey could of bought a full back.
The squad then would of been more balanced and stronger

[RVclaret]

I expected our defence to be weak this season, my pre-season prediction was we'd get hammered more than one, but I thought we'd at least score a decent number of goals.

But, we've got one of the lowest numbers of shots attempted, expected goals and actual goals in the league. It's gone under the radar a bit with how poor we've been in other areas of the pitch but we've been struggling to score as well and today really highlighted that:

I know you are someone into data/xG, well at least have a decent knowledge of it comparative to most… a neutral fan I got chatting with post last season was betting we’d go straight back down based largely on our significant xG outperformance last season. He pointed out it was the largest outperformance for a promoted side since Norwich and there were many similarities between the two. Essentially with a lot of our goals coming from distance strikes last season, we wouldn’t get those same goal numbers again in the Prem, and only teams like City (best players in the league) can sustainably outperform.

So in reference to your discussion point, could this be partly the case? Tella and Benson both had the largest xG outperformance in the league last season, now we’ve had neither, plus theres been a massive step up in quality. I think Kompany has tried changing the play style slightly to try and be more creative centrally, whereas last season it was all out wide. But that relies quite heavily on Foster’s availability, of which has been 50% so far.

[BabylonClaret]

We got to get Amdouni and Tresor to be more efficient. Benson and Zaroury should offer more as well. I hope not to see much of jayrod though he seems like a great guy with a class mentality.
There must be ways around starting him. Use Amdouni Obafemi or even midfielders or other wingers instead. You can't tell me Zaroury would do less than Rodriguez... Or Larsen with his speed dribbling and shooting...

Last time Amdouni started in Jays position we got bounced

[Spijed]

I know you are someone into data/xG, well at least have a decent knowledge of it comparative to most… a neutral fan I got chatting with post last season was betting we’d go straight back down based largely on our significant xG outperformance last season. He pointed out it was the largest outperformance for a promoted side since Norwich and there were many similarities between the two. Essentially with a lot of our goals coming from distance strikes last season, we wouldn’t get those same goal numbers again in the Prem, and only teams like City (best players in the league) can sustainably outperform.

So in reference to your discussion point, could this be partly the case? Tella and Benson both had the largest xG outperformance in the league last season, now we’ve had neither, plus theres been a massive step up in quality. I think Kompany has tried changing the play style slightly to try and be more creative centrally, whereas last season it was all out wide. But that relies quite heavily on Foster’s availability, of which has been 50% so far.

Would be worth looking at Norwich XG in the season they went up 20/21 (97 pts).
And the following season (20th -22 pts) to see if there is any comparison to us at the moment.

[taio]

All knowledgeable fans will know it's much harder to score in the PL than the championship without needing to look at data.

[jojomk1]

All knowledgeable fans will know it's much harder to score in the PL than the championship without needing to look at data.

Correct
So we needed decent striker options
Jay is too old
Obafemi couldn't get into the Championship side last season when fit
Amdouni is a No 10

But we've plenty of wide men to feed the crosses in !!

Shambles from VK and his recruitment team

[taio]

Correct
So we needed decent striker options
Jay is too old
Obafemi couldn't get into the Championship side last season when fit
Amdouni is a No 10

But we've plenty of wide men to feed the crosses in !!

Shambles from VK and his recruitment team

It's a concern and we did sign too many wingers, which was a widely held view during the transfer window so not with the benefit of hindsight.

[Kilson810]

I think part of the issue is we often break with one, maybe two, players. Players get near the box, look up and don't have any options.

Very true, we must be one of the easiest teams in this league to defend against. Most teams in the PL will overload the defence if they break a press.

[alwaysaclaret]

I suppose that VK would have expected most of our goal threat to come from Foster, supplemented by Obafemi (shortly)

Why would he expect goals to come from obafemi, I know he was injured for a large part last season but in the games he did feature there was nothing to suggest this. However personally I would have expected goals to come from zaroury and Benson, again Benson has been injured so far but it seems vk is uninterested in continuing zarourys development, as he is with larsen, who imo is one of our best and most threatening players. But we're clearly missing foster, who so far has been our best source of goals.

[spt_claret]

It's because we're not really an attacking team anymore.
Attacking teams try and get the ball at goal, get shots away often and accept a level of risk in the play.
We're as defensive as Dyche but with a different philosophy to it.
Dyche's philosophy was sit deep, frustrate, be physical, hit on the break where possible (2017-18 and 2019-20 especially), go direct and hope for a successful cross, snap shot or set piece if not.
What we're doing now is no less defensive, our approach seems built on "if we have the ball the opposition can't score", simple and obvious theory but we don't look willing enough to risk losing the ball for us to score. It's fine to have that attitude when you're 1 up. When you're behind and have the ball for the sake of it all you're doing is doing the opposition's timewasting for them.
We spent enormous swathes of time yesterday just faffing about with the ball. I can understand patience and trying to force positional errors but Palace cottoned on quickly that all they needed to do was sit back on Koleosho/Amdouni with a few guys, and have 1 or 2 players press our CBs, we wouldn't play aggressively and would eventually either mishit a pass (As O'Shea did regularly) or get halfway up the pitch, turn back, go all the way back and try again. And we seemed far too happy to do this as if figuring it means they won't score another- even though they then did.

[Anthonini]

Last time Amdouni started in Jays position we got bounced

I actually really enjoyed the first half against United with Ramsey and Amdouni in the middle. Too bad we never saw that combination afterwards.

[alwaysaclaret]

I agree it’s surprising we’re struggling for goals but really not with Jay upfront. I thought he was really poor today, why did he try and score a dipping header from the edge of the box? He had a good yard of space to either lay it into JBG for a tap in or touch it down for a 1v1, summed us up, good moment should’ve turned into a good chance with a little more quality and care.

Also I don’t think rotating wingers every game is helping much, though I do understand VK still trying to figure out his best side and spreading opportunity around. No point playing out of form wingers just for continuity reasons but then how do you find form without a run of games.

Trouble is we can't afford to be spreading opportunity and giving game time to people with how results have gone at this stage, it's about time vk had a much better idea of he's best 11 to start a game, in terms of wingers imo larsen and Koleosho are by far he's best options as it stands, but Koleosho left and larsen right where they have produced their best form, I still can't believe larsen was left on the bench till the game was lost again yesterday, of the rest it's a lottery because their all of a similar ilk, but based on last season you'd expect zaroury and hopefully Benson soon to back those 2 up, also imo it's imperative vk plays Berge as an attacking midfielder, and drops Brownhill back alongside Cork, although an aging Cork he would at least provide some nous and experience, which is what we're seriously lacking at the moment, and leadership of course. However we were desperately unlucky not to hit the back of the net yesterday but we just can't keep being unlucky, we have to do better in front of goal.

[Rileybobs]

It's because we're not really an attacking team anymore.
Attacking teams try and get the ball at goal, get shots away often and accept a level of risk in the play.
We're as defensive as Dyche but with a different philosophy to it.
Dyche's philosophy was sit deep, frustrate, be physical, hit on the break where possible (2017-18 and 2019-20 especially), go direct and hope for a successful cross, snap shot or set piece if not.
What we're doing now is no less defensive, our approach seems built on "if we have the ball the opposition can't score", simple and obvious theory but we don't look willing enough to risk losing the ball for us to score. It's fine to have that attitude when you're 1 up. When you're behind and have the ball for the sake of it all you're doing is doing the opposition's timewasting for them.
We spent enormous swathes of time yesterday just faffing about with the ball. I can understand patience and trying to force positional errors but Palace cottoned on quickly that all they needed to do was sit back on Koleosho/Amdouni with a few guys, and have 1 or 2 players press our CBs, we wouldn't play aggressively and would eventually either mishit a pass (As O'Shea did regularly) or get halfway up the pitch, turn back, go all the way back and try again. And we seemed far too happy to do this as if figuring it means they won't score another- even though they then did.

We were similar last season though, and often struggled when the opposition put men behind the ball. A couple of ways we played through this were by Beyer carrying the ball forward, and THB playing a line-breaking pass. We were crying out for the latter yesterday. I also thought that Brownhill hid away from the ball and was reluctant to show for it from the CBs and keeper - I think it was Trafford who bollocked him at one point in the second half when he could have received the ball but signalled that he didn't want it which forced Trafford to spray the ball out wide and he overhit it into touch.

We've got to be a lot braver and better at playing through the lines as we have players like Berge and Amdouni who are very comfortable at receiving the ball on the half-turn.

[spt_claret]

We were similar last season though, and often struggled when the opposition put men behind the ball. A couple of ways we played through this were by Beyer carrying the ball forward, and THB playing a line-breaking pass. We were crying out for the latter yesterday. I also thought that Brownhill hid away from the ball and was reluctant to show for it from the CBs and keeper - I think it was Trafford who bollocked him at one point in the second half when he could have received the ball but signalled that he didn't want it which forced Trafford to spray the ball out wide and he overhit it into touch.

We've got to be a lot braver and better at playing through the lines as we have players like Berge and Amdouni who are very comfortable at receiving the ball on the half-turn.

Fully agree especially on being braver. Posted it in another thread but when teams sat back, we relied on Bellis or (I'd say to more effect) Ekdal, and Muric, to split them with a long or midrange pass usually to Tella, a run from Beyer to force something, or Benson to produce magic. Only one of those is playing currently, 2 are injured, 1 unfavoured, and either no players are willing/able to take on those duties or Kompany isn't wanting to employ that approach.

[Nonayforever]

I would expect VK to be a stats man having come from M City. This can be seen from his style of play. Using inverted wingers , driving through midfield with Beyer or Berge.
This is all in an effort to create chances from the middle not the by-line or with crosses.
The trouble is opponents know this and are better at defending against it.
Last seasons goals by Benson will be almost impossible to replicate.
Amdouni is the answer in my opinion but he needs a foil. Tresor was probably VKs secret weapon but he just doesn't seem to be able to cut inside with speed and control thereby not creating any threat.

[KRBFC]

Last seasons goals by Benson will be almost impossible to replicate.

Last 30 mins of that game yesterday was prime Benson time too. Crying out for him on that right

Koleosho left Benson right is a pretty dynamic duo

[claretgimmer]

I was led to believe that investing in all these pacey wingers/forwards was to enable us to break quickly assuming we would be under pressure a lot more than the previous season, yet when we do get possession we slow it down as keeping possession seems more important than getting the opposition defenders running back towards their own goal we allow their whole team to get back behind the ball then struggle to break them down as there is no space for our pacey players to run into, yesterday it was obvious that the ball over the top for Kolesho to run onto as he had Ward on toast took 25 or so minutes for the penny to drop and the quality wasn`t that good when we tried it. The tactics are to rigid and predictable hence the lack of goals. IMO of course.

[Conroysleftfoot]

I was led to believe that investing in all these pacey wingers/forwards was to enable us to break quickly assuming we would be under pressure a lot more than the previous season, yet when we do get possession we slow it down as keeping possession seems more important than getting the opposition defenders running back towards their own goal we allow their whole team to get back behind the ball then struggle to break them down as there is no space for our pacey players to run into, yesterday it was obvious that the ball over the top for Kolesho to run onto as he had Ward on toast took 25 or so minutes for the penny to drop and the quality wasn`t that good when we tried it. The tactics are to rigid and predictable hence the lack of goals. IMO of course.

Good post. I thought the same about buying quick wingers, as you say allowing the opposition to get back into position seems rather weird.