Opta 2023 : WARNING positive thread

[CrosspoolClarets]

Had a look at Opta Analyst where this page has a wealth of Premier League stats so far, from xG to pressing zones to speed of attack.

Struggling to find much that says we will be relegated. Probably the only thing is chances created from open play (19th) which suggests Kompany needs to play people who set up the most chances. That’s Tresor for me.

Areas for positivity:
Expected goals from set plays - 12th (yes, really ) and from open play - 19th (the only concern)
Expected goals conceded from set plays - 14th (better than all our rivals) and from open play - 17th (better than our 3 main rivals)
Percentage of expected goals from set plays - 1st (doesn’t say much about open play I suppose)
Direct speed - 2nd slowest (between City and Arsenal)
Zones of control - only team in bottom 9 apart from Wolves to have more touches in a zone in opponents half (left wing for us) suggesting we dominate the ball in that dangerous area

Saw another stat elsewhere today about pressing styles - we may do best against the sides who don’t press that aggressively in our defensive third, that is Luton, Fulham, West Ham, Palace, Sheffield and Forest. Funnily enough we’ve already done OK against the ones we’ve played.

Stats like this can predict the future, and it suggests to me that Luton, Sheffield and Bournemouth will drop. But we will see.

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/08/premi ... C4zNC4wLjA.

[Hibsclaret]

I agree. 4th bottom should do it as a minimum.

[SalisburyClaret]

Looks positive - very welcome!

[Bosscat]

You should be ashamed Crosspool ... Positive threads are persona non grata ... only Doom and Gloom on here

[CoolClaret]

It’s been incredibly rough, polar opposites of the highs of last season with another tough game this weekend.

I’ve been disappointed, flabbergasted and critical of a lot what we’ve done in the off-season and so far this season.

All that has been said has to be said I think now. The only thing we can do is back the lads and the manager who I think will have learned a lot from this situation.
At least the showed something to get behind against Palace.

Foster Is a huge miss like - he gives us that bit of grit and quality we need up top when we’re in control of possession.

[NewClaret]

Agree with Coolclaret:

“All that has been said has to be said I think now. The only thing we can do is back the lads and the manager who I think will have learned a lot from this situation.”

Just hope some of the others posting constant negativity take note.

Great stats by the way crosspool

[aggi]

Opta do have us probably going down though with ~ 20% chance of staying up:

Simulation.jpg (268.64 KiB) Viewed 3322 times

The style one shows some of our problems. Being very slow at moving the ball forward coupled with not being able to keep hold of the ball for that many passes means that we don't get the ball forward enough which then feeds into not having enough attempts at goal:

style.jpg (104.04 KiB) Viewed 3322 times

[Jakubclaret]

You should be ashamed Crosspool ... Positive threads are persona non grata ... only Doom and Gloom on here

Doom & gloom otherwise known as realism.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Thanks all for the comments. Not my work of course, I have now added this Opta Analyst to my Ipad home page.

Aggi is right I think about the slow style only working if it gets us sufficiently up the pitch, though that table doesn’t definitively say that occurs, we may just work it to the middle then suddenly go long and wide to Koleosho, for example. But I think it is right that we haven’t figured out yet how to create enough in open play.

I don’t agree with the supercomputer forecasts though. Unrelated field but I have to choose which stats to show and not show for a living, and this is one I’d not show (hence why I didn’t ). It doesn’t appear to factor in fully who we have played, in week 1 it had us finishing 15th, now it says Everton are only 7% likely to drop despite a really tough run upcoming. It has 4 sides over 50% likely to drop which sounds more like a bookmaker than an accurate statistical mode. So I’m treating that one with a pinch of salt.

Note - the toggle at the top switches to player mode. Too much on that to comment on but it is interesting again. Koleosho comes out well with outcome from progressive carries, let to 12 chances from memory, compares favourably to, e.g. Rashford.

p.s. final comment to Jacob - stats are realism, not negative comments from posters. Those are just unneeded and unwelcome.

[Hibsclaret]

Thanks Crosspool. Looks like we are most like Arsenal and Man City with quality that is some notches below. You can see from all this exactly what we are trying to do and why it needs patience rather than the toxicity that is creeping in along with banging of drums for more senior players or against a keeper that has been largely blameless all season. If everyone gets behind the team like they did last season it will definitely help rather than hinder our chance to stay up.

People need to cast their minds back just a couple of seasons when we were playing a brand of football that would have been in the top left of the chart where we are now bottom right. Most were moaning about the style of play then too and it wasn’t working then. We have a whole new blueprint based on younger talent and we need them on the pitch to learn from mistakes and grow to a level beyond some of our old senior pros. To help this we can all play a part rather than having the small time and short term mentality from a few poor results.

[JohnMcGreal]

Thanks Crosspool. Looks like we are most like Arsenal and Man City with quality that is some notches below. You can see from all this exactly what we are trying to do and why it needs patience rather than the toxicity that is creeping in along with banging of drums for more senior players or against a keeper that has been largely blameless all season. If everyone gets behind the team like they did last season it will definitely help rather than hinder our chance to stay up.

People need to cast their minds back just a couple of seasons when we were playing a brand of football that would have been in the top left of the chart where we are now bottom right. Most were moaning about the style of play then too and it wasn’t working then. We have a whole new blueprint based on younger talent and we need them on the pitch to learn from mistakes and grow to a level beyond some of our old senior pros. To help this we can all play a part rather than having the small time and short term mentality from a few poor results.

I think the crowd have been fine. The atmosphere at home has fallen flat at times, usually as a result of being out of the game with plenty of time to spare. But I thought they were right behind the team on Saturday, to no avail.

As for showing patience, it's easier said than done. It doesn't matter how patient a person you are, if you're watching your team get beat every week eventually it will start to wear thin.

We desperately need to start picking up results soon otherwise the crowd and the atmosphere will only go one way unfortunately. It's down to the manager and the players to get results.

[RickyBobby]

Football is about getting points not meaningless expected goals and pressing zone stats. If we don‘t get enough points we will get relegated. Simple. We won‘t get a reprieve because we have the 7th best pressing zone stats in the left wing unorthodox false 9 quarterback position.

[FCBurnley]

Sometimes things beyond your control can really hurt you. This season has just felt like it never started to me. We played 5 of the top teams at home. The game at Luton was wrongly postponed which we did play and win but by then our confidence was already low. Then of course the stupid International breaks which do nobody any favors. And finally and maybe most important have been injuries and suspensions. I won’t list them all but Foster Benson Zaroury Beyer Ekdal etc were all expected to be key players but none have been able to have a run of games. Others like Berge are taking time to bed in and some like Amdouni Tresor and Trafford have been disappointing.
Overall if we can get a settled team including our best players then we should be able to finish ahead of Luton Sheff U and Bournemouth but we have to start picking up points very soon

[CrosspoolClarets]

I think RickyBobby is misunderstanding the purpose of these stats.

We WILL get a reprieve when we have so many touches in our left wing position just outside their box, because sooner or later those will lead to plenty of goals and wins, we can say this with confidence because it always does, that's why virtually every other team with this stat is in the top half, not just this season, but every season.

Look at vs Palace, we could have had 4 goals from that very position. The shot tipped over. The burst into the box to set up JBG. The last ditch tackle by Anderson. One other burst I can’t remember who had the shot. Then, we scored against Villa and Spurs from having it in that area. That’s the evidence the dominance in that zone leads to chances and goals.

[ŽižkovClaret]

Going to sound like a football neanderthal, but there's only one stat that matters when it comes down to it, and thats the one in the column marked "Points".

[Bosscat]

remember 2014/2015 and Leicester locked in at the foot of the table at Xmas ...


Just saying like ... there are a lot of games left ... get behind the team ... they need us more than ever now

[Hipper]

I think RickyBobby is misunderstanding the purpose of these stats.

We WILL get a reprieve when we have so many touches in our left wing position just outside their box, because sooner or later those will lead to plenty of goals and wins, we can say this with confidence because it always does, that's why virtually every other team with this stat is in the top half, not just this season, but every season.

Look at vs Palace, we could have had 4 goals from that very position. The shot tipped over. The burst into the box to set up JBG. The last ditch tackle by Anderson. One other burst I can’t remember who had the shot. Then, we scored against Villa and Spurs from having it in that area. That’s the evidence the dominance in that zone leads to chances and goals.

Look at vs Palace, we could have had 4 goals from that very position.

And that's the point about stats. The reality, despite the stats, is that we didn't get any goals and therefore lost!

If these statistics have any value I see two possibilities:

1. They remain the same, resulting in us picking up more points.

2. They will adjust as we continue to lose.

[expoultryboy]

January transfer market/loans will hopefully keep us up .

[boatshed bill]

Going to sound like a football neanderthal, but there's only one stat that matters when it comes down to it, and thats the one in the column marked "Points".

Not from a coaching point of view, though.
I think we'd have picked up points had Lyle Foster been up front. We just can't score from the reasonable openings we create.

[spt_claret]

The style one shows some of our problems. Being very slow at moving the ball forward coupled with not being able to keep hold of the ball for that many passes means that we don't get the ball forward enough which then feeds into not having enough attempts at goal:

style.jpg

The stats show what should be obvious to the eye here. We're painfully dithering in possession. Back, sideways, 4 yards forwards, sideways, back, sideways, 4 yards forward.
To me the ideal quadrant to be in is top right, where Liverpool are sitting. Plenty of play but also impetus to attack.

I've said it so many threads the past week and I know but I'll keep repeating it.
It's no coincidence our best spells of play against Palace and indeed every team have been when we've been willing to take risks and get it forwards.
As Sean Dyche said in a recent interview talking about bringing Dele Alli in by having him help relay tactics to the team - being 'more direct' doesn't mean lump it long. It means move the ball up the pitch quicker and more aggressively rather than spending 5 minutes probing side to side to gain 10 yards. We have the players. We have genuine pacy wingers and pacy cover with Koleosho, Odobert, Tresor (quality as yet pending) and Benson (injured). Zaroury isn't as electric quick but has proven in the Championship he can carry the ball pretty fast. We have in Berge & Brownhill two relatively mobile & physical CMs, Cullen jury's out but he can press, Gudmundsson has clever movement and good distribution. Amdouni and when hes better Foster give us quick forwards who are technically able and physically strong, Obafemi can possibly stopgap. Larsen's a bit of an allrounder.
We need to be getting it forwards faster, having wingers, ideally one on each side, trying to get in behind and scare teams with pace and dribbling ability, and then either 2 strikers or a centre striker and deep forward/CAM who are mobile and able to drag the centrebacks out of position for their partner or a cut-in by a winger. We'd have less possession and probably less passes per sequence but we'd move it forwards faster and we've looked far more threatening whenever we do this, and if teams start getting scared and concede the midfield more, or over-commit to try cut us off early we might actually recoup some of that lost possession but with a chance to break or expose teams. As it stands, we play so slowly that our style practically forces our own costly errors, because we're so patient with nothing happening that teams can just wait for us to mis-hit one or panic and commit to the wrong sort of forwards ball. The stats and graphs pretty much prove this- apart from City who are a multi billion pound anomaly, we're rock bottom for speed of forwards play, not just slow.

[boatshed bill]

I wondered how long it would take.

[ClaretPete001]

I can't believe Crosspool accused me of cherry picking stats...

[Notsosuperstevedavis]

The owners have picked a path to progress.
They picked VK, a better brand of football, attracting better players (that play the required style) who have far more saleable potential than we’ve ever had.
We dont have the funding of an Oligarch or backed by a saudi national fund.
We have to make our own money, luck and fortune.

This is the path we have to progress and the one we have to embrace.

The players will get better and bring us profit.
It might be this season. It might not. They may need another season in the championship and want another go. A whole season older and wiser.

But Im fully behind Pace, VK, and the players we’ve bought.

The grumbling is just passion thats converting itself into pain as we’re strugging right now.

Stick with it lads. We’ll come good

[Jakubclaret]

Thanks all for the comments. Not my work of course, I have now added this Opta Analyst to my Ipad home page.

Aggi is right I think about the slow style only working if it gets us sufficiently up the pitch, though that table doesn’t definitively say that occurs, we may just work it to the middle then suddenly go long and wide to Koleosho, for example. But I think it is right that we haven’t figured out yet how to create enough in open play.

I don’t agree with the supercomputer forecasts though. Unrelated field but I have to choose which stats to show and not show for a living, and this is one I’d not show (hence why I didn’t ). It doesn’t appear to factor in fully who we have played, in week 1 it had us finishing 15th, now it says Everton are only 7% likely to drop despite a really tough run upcoming. It has 4 sides over 50% likely to drop which sounds more like a bookmaker than an accurate statistical mode. So I’m treating that one with a pinch of salt.

Note - the toggle at the top switches to player mode. Too much on that to comment on but it is interesting again. Koleosho comes out well with outcome from progressive carries, let to 12 chances from memory, compares favourably to, e.g. Rashford.

p.s. final comment to Jacob - stats are realism, not negative comments from posters. Those are just unneeded and unwelcome.

The only stat I'm bothered about is the league table position everything else to me is hot air, the realism of that particular nugget of truth will determine next seasons future nothing else.

[Big Vinny K]

If we score more goals than the opposition I’m sure we will turn things around and be fine.
Surely that should be all VK needs to tell the team ?

The fans can help the team too by making sure we shout and sing some instructions to help the players

Attack attack attack attack attack

Hit it

Shoot

Get it in

Stop him

Win (don’t lose)

Etc etc

[CrosspoolClarets]

Another goal today from having possession in that spot on our left just outside their box.

That’s what I was saying above - a lot of possession in that area inevitably leads to goals. A really good sign.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Another month later and a few more goals all coming from our left wing position that these OPTA stats suggested we dominate, that I wrote about above. Shows how stats can predict the future.

We also look OK on expected goals conceded from open play - better than Man Utd, which is contrary to our media narrative. The actual goals going in though are worse but than can be players finding the top corner, which the theory is won’t continue, especially with Trafford’s shot stopping improving.

The one stat I remain concerned about is wider chances created from open play which don’t lead to enough xGs - need a playmaker to unlock defences, like Redmond or Tresor.

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/08/premi ... i4yNi4wLjA.

[TsarBomba]

The owners have picked a path to progress.
They picked VK, a better brand of football, attracting better players (that play the required style) who have far more saleable potential than we’ve ever had.
We dont have the funding of an Oligarch or backed by a saudi national fund.
We have to make our own money, luck and fortune.

This is the path we have to progress and the one we have to embrace.

The players will get better and bring us profit.
It might be this season. It might not. They may need another season in the championship and want another go. A whole season older and wiser.

But Im fully behind Pace, VK, and the players we’ve bought.

The grumbling is just passion thats converting itself into pain as we’re strugging right now.

Stick with it lads. We’ll come good

Bit late to this thread, but this post is bob on.

I’m as guilty as any at being hyper critical of our players after a game, borne out of frustration.

However, we have the youngest squad in the league (if I’m not mistaken), and there’s positive signs that we’re adjusting to the demands of the PL.

A win against Everton and we’re right in the fight.

UTC

[Holtyclaret]

But I thought they were right behind the team on Saturday, to no avail.

Crowd was brilliant Saturday. ‘To no avail’ is a bit odd because they would have lifted the players when backs were against the wall and a battling point was very welcome and not really expected.

[Ampth7]

Had a look at Opta Analyst where this page has a wealth of Premier League stats so far, from xG to pressing zones to speed of attack.

Struggling to find much that says we will be relegated. Probably the only thing is chances created from open play (19th) which suggests Kompany needs to play people who set up the most chances. That’s Tresor for me.

Areas for positivity:
Expected goals from set plays - 12th (yes, really ) and from open play - 19th (the only concern)
Expected goals conceded from set plays - 14th (better than all our rivals) and from open play - 17th (better than our 3 main rivals)
Percentage of expected goals from set plays - 1st (doesn’t say much about open play I suppose)
Direct speed - 2nd slowest (between City and Arsenal)
Zones of control - only team in bottom 9 apart from Wolves to have more touches in a zone in opponents half (left wing for us) suggesting we dominate the ball in that dangerous area

Saw another stat elsewhere today about pressing styles - we may do best against the sides who don’t press that aggressively in our defensive third, that is Luton, Fulham, West Ham, Palace, Sheffield and Forest. Funnily enough we’ve already done OK against the ones we’ve played.

Stats like this can predict the future, and it suggests to me that Luton, Sheffield and Bournemouth will drop. But we will see.

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/08/premi ... C4zNC4wLjA.

Very interesting! However, the only stats that matter in my mind are total points and league position, for which the next 15 games will have to see a considerably higher return than the last 15 if we are to survive. Somehow, we have got to score more goals, but at least we appear to have halted conceding 3 every game, at least in recent games anyway.

Also, interesting to read people’s thoughts on another thread regarding how many points will be needed to survive, which as the law of averages shows, 35 points gives you around a 98% chance of survival. That means 27 points from 22 games at 1.2 points per game or 9 wins, which is very doable! It’s all to play for, and with Foster returning hopefully sooner than later, our young team learning and improving all the time, possibly a signing or two in January, you never know! UTC!!!

[South West Claret.]

Get the ball forward as soon as possible as we did under Shaun Dyche was in charge has usually been the best policy using the obvious tactic of playing football in your opponents half.

That way the odds have to be in our favour over a season.