11 points after 19 games

[northernpowerhouse]

We currently have 11 points from 19 games. There have been 17 times a PL team has had that many points or less at this stage. Here's how they finished:

93-94 Swindon 20th
95-96 Bolton 20th
99-00 Watford 20th
99-00 Sheff Wed 19th
04-05 West Brom 17th
05-06 Sunderland 20th
06-07 Watford 20th
07-08 Derby 20th
12-13 Reading 19th
12-13 QPR 20th
15-16 Aston Villa 20th
18-19 Huddersfield 20th
18-19 Fulham 19th
20-21 West brom 19th
20-21 sheff u 20th
21-22 Newcastle 11th
22-23 Norwich 20th

Only two PL teams have ever survived from this position. Both changed manager mid-season and Newcastle spent over £100 million in January.

So the omens aren't good for Kompany. It will be a huge achievement if he somehow keeps us up.

Honourable mention to Leicester in 2014-15 who had 13 points after 19 games, stuck with the manager who got them promoted and finished 14th. That should give us hope.

[IanMcL]

Can we be twice as good in the end half of the season, as we were in the first?

We were in tge Championship.

All fingers crossed.

[Quicknick]

Let's do a Newcastle!

[JMU81]

Even the biggest optimists on here will know deep down we will be relegated at the end of the season. There is no way we are getting the 8/9/10 wins needed to stay up. The end !

[Quickenthetempo]

We have very winnable home games coming up.

It might still not be enough though.

[Herts Clarets]

It shows how bad Derby must have been to get 11 points from 38 games.....

[dsr]

Even the biggest optimists on here will know deep down we will be relegated at the end of the season. There is no way we are getting the 8/9/10 wins needed to stay up. The end !

41 points plus draws needed? I doubt it.

[ElectroClaret]

Can we be twice as good in the end half of the season, as we were in the first?

We were in tge Championship.

All fingers crossed.

You'll need everything crossed, Ian.
We're up against far better sides than we were in the Championship, that's the huge difference.

Still i hope you're right.

[ksrclaret]

I think just about everyone has now resigned themselves to relegation this season.

It's not like we've been unlucky in games, it's that the very basics of football are not being done. There's only one way that goes.

[CoolClaret]

It shows how bad Derby must have been to get 11 points from 38 games.....

1 win, 8 draws and 29 losses.

Could you imagine?

*Shudder*

Sort of thing that has a lasting impact for years and years.

[Pickles]

It's not like we've been unlucky in games, it's that the very basics of football are not being done.

This.

So much is made of how we try and keep the ball. But when the pure basics aren't there week after week then everything else is just background noise.

We go prolonged periods in every game without even trying to make a tackle. We go entire halves sauntering around at such a low intensity it's genuinely weird to watch. We don't press, we don't follow runners, we don't attack or defend set pieces, we don't win 50/50s.

Trafford taking a second or two longer to make a pass or Odobert not having enough end product aren't the headlines this season.

We're bad to the point of clueless off the ball. And I really think that's what will send us down more than anything.

[Foshiznik]

If you just look at our improvements in performances, particularly defensively from the beginning of the season then we have every chance in the second half of the season if we continue to improve at the same rate. However, it's unlikely that this is a realistic trajectory so highly unlikely but i'll keep the faith until it's mathematically impossible.

[RVclaret]

This.

So much is made of how we try and keep the ball. But when the pure basics aren't there week after week then everything else is just background noise.

We go prolonged periods in every game without even trying to make a tackle. We go entire halves sauntering around at such a low intensity it's genuinely weird to watch. We don't press, we don't follow runners, we don't attack or defend set pieces, we don't win 50/50s.

Trafford taking a second or two longer to make a pass or Odobert not having enough end product aren't the headlines this season.

We're bad to the point of clueless off the ball. And I really think that's what will send us down more than anything.

Given the description of being ‘to the point of clueless off the ball’ I thought I’d check to see how we rank for open play xG against (essentially the amount of quality chances we give up from open play).

Turns out there are 5 teams that are worse in this regard, Sheffield and Luton (by a distance), then United, Spurs and Fulham. Wolves are neck and neck with us with Bournemouth quite close. Not saying this data alone paints the full picture but perhaps that description is a tad unfair (unless we suggest the 5 worse off than us are ‘worse than clueless off the ball’).

[Pickles]

Given the description of being ‘to the point of clueless off the ball’ I thought I’d check to see how we rank for open play xG against (essentially the amount of quality chances we give up from open play).

Turns out there are 5 teams that are worse in this regard, Sheffield and Luton (by a distance), then United, Spurs and Fulham. Wolves are neck and neck with us with Bournemouth quite close. Not saying this data alone paints the full picture but perhaps that description is a tad unfair (unless we suggest the 5 worse off than us are ‘worse than clueless off the ball’).

I think we're below what is needed off the ball. We're regularly swamped in midfield, we don't press with enough intensity, don't win the ball back quick enough or regularly enough. It doesn't look as if players know where they need to be when we don't have the ball. This is just what I see with my eyes. If these things aren't improved then whether we keep the ball well enough or take our chances becomes more and more irrelevant.

[alwaysaclaret]

I think we're below what is needed off the ball. We're regularly swamped in midfield, we don't press with enough intensity, don't win the ball back quick enough or regularly enough. It doesn't look as if players know where they need to be when we don't have the ball. This is just what I see with my eyes. If these things aren't improved then whether we keep the ball well enough or take our chances becomes more and more irrelevant.

Both absolutely right in this summing up rv and pickles, we just don't seem to have the experience to know when, where or if to press, it just seems the defence need to push up a yard or 2 and the forward line to drop a yard or 2 all together at the right time in order to make the press, but then we're likely to get caught at the back, we just as a team don't seem to want to put that extra in as most other teams do if and when the ball is won back, or with enough speed to break and get more opportunity to hit the back of the net, I suppose it's called ball watching too often.

[Hipper]

Honourable mention to Leicester in 2014-15 who had 13 points after 19 games, stuck with the manager who got them promoted and finished 14th. That should give us hope.

... and he was then sacked and the rest is history.

[ArmchairDetective]

We currently have 11 points from 19 games. There have been 17 times a PL team has had that many points or less at this stage. Here's how they finished:

93-94 Swindon 20th
95-96 Bolton 20th
99-00 Watford 20th
99-00 Sheff Wed 19th
04-05 West Brom 17th
05-06 Sunderland 20th
06-07 Watford 20th
07-08 Derby 20th
12-13 Reading 19th
12-13 QPR 20th
15-16 Aston Villa 20th
18-19 Huddersfield 20th
18-19 Fulham 19th
20-21 West brom 19th
20-21 sheff u 20th
21-22 Newcastle 11th
22-23 Norwich 20th

Only two PL teams have ever survived from this position. Both changed manager mid-season and Newcastle spent over £100 million in January.

So the omens aren't good for Kompany. It will be a huge achievement if he somehow keeps us up.

Honourable mention to Leicester in 2014-15 who had 13 points after 19 games, stuck with the manager who got them promoted and finished 14th. That should give us hope.

[AfloatinClaret]

Let's do a Newcastle!

Wot, buy Chris Wood?

[Rileybobs]

If we take Everton out of the equation then on current trajectory 35 points will be required to avoid relegation - which is much higher than it looked like earlier in the season.

That would require 7 wins and 3 draws which certainly isn’t insurmountable, but obviously looks a very improbable task based on our results in the first half of the season. But Bournemouth looked dead certs to be in the bottom 4 just a few weeks ago and have gone on to win 6 and draw 1 of their last 7 which has almost entirely taken them out of the relegation picture.

A little run of 3 wins from 4 totally changes the picture, but whether we’re capable of that I’m not sure.

[Darnhill Claret]

Well, let's just hope the players and staff haven't given up yet. It's not about being right, it's about giving extra support to show the players that we are right behind them. The odds may be stacked against us but let's stick together in this difficult situation and we might just beat the odds. If we don't then next season we get right behind them again in our battle to reclaim our premier league position. If we do manage to avoid relegation then next season the challenge is to avoid the 'relegation battle' as early as possible in the season.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

We concede on average 2 a game until that problem is addressed and we start to keep clean sheets more regularly there isn’t much chance of staying up.

[bf2k]

Here’s a question to all you that want Kompany sacked. Did you want Dyche sacked in the 14/15 season when we got relegated in his first season in the Premier League?

Kompany has rebuilt the playing staff after years of under investment. It takes time. If we get relegated I’ve every confidence we’ll come straight back up and be stronger than we were before this under Dyche.

[Ric_C]

I've mentioned this before, but i think the best we can hope for (especially from the home games) is signs of improvement, signs of fight and to not embarrass ourselves

Then we keep the nucleus of the squad together, with a few decent additions in key areas and blitz the championship next season

It's not being defeatist, but realistic. We are pretty much down, but I don't want us to just roll over for everyone

[Goliath]

I've mentioned this before, but i think the best we can hope for (especially from the home games) is signs of improvement, signs of fight and to not embarrass ourselves

Then we keep the nucleus of the squad together, with a few decent additions in key areas and blitz the championship next season

It's not being defeatist, but realistic. We are pretty much down, but I don't want us to just roll over for everyone

Its a good point this. If we were still as crap as we were early in the season then itd be fair to call for a change. But we have improved significantly really since then and as long as theres signs of progress then theres no need to change manager. Hopefully Pace remembers this is Burnley not Watford or any other of those clubs that change manager every week. One of the unique things about this club is how long we tend to keep managers for and hopefully thats something we persist with.

[Spijed]

Here’s a question to all you that want Kompany sacked. Did you want Dyche sacked in the 14/15 season when we got relegated in his first season in the Premier League?

Kompany has rebuilt the playing staff after years of under investment. It takes time. If we get relegated I’ve every confidence we’ll come straight back up and be stronger than we were before this under Dyche.

Regardless of any arguments regarding going down and coming back up under SD, there is one massive difference. To date, this current team hasn't shown one ounce of guts when it comes to the winning mentality, fighting for every ball, willing to put bodies on the line. Not once when we've gone behind this season has this current side been willing to try and get back into a game. So far, it's a completely spineless team, unwilling to go that extra mile to win matches.

Unless that mentality changes we'll go straight back down again if we get relegated this season and go up next term.

[ksrclaret]

Unless that mentality changes we'll go straight back down again if we get relegated this season and go up next term.

The weak mentality of the team, along with the lack of basics, has been the biggest disappointment of this season for me.

[Elizabeth]

We concede on average 2 a game until that problem is addressed and we start to keep clean sheets more regularly there isn’t much chance of staying up.

Of the 6 games played in December we have kept 2 clean sheets and only conceded 1 goal in two other games. The most we have conceded in a game is 2 including potential champions Liverpool.
That surely represents there is a chance of staying up if you look at goals being conceded as a barometer.
That early start where new players and a new team were being bedded in has skewed it

[Holtyclaret]

The following is Bournemouths form over the last 7 games. I think the two games prior were a win (against us?) and a loss.

It shows the sort of run we may need is possible, unlikely and extremely difficult but definitely possible UTC

[scamander]

Did some rough stats on this, to get to 37 points we need to be averaging 1.4 points a game. Our current average is 0.6.

Newcastle are a team who are the closest to averaging this by the way, it's a very strong ask. I think this means we need 8 wins minimum (probably 9). Aside from Luton and Sheff Utd which teams are we likely to beat to get to that number?

[Goliath]

The following is Bournemouths form over the last 7 games. I think the two games prior were a win (against us?) and a loss.

It shows the sort of run we may need is possible, unlikely and extremely difficult but definitely possible UTC

They have the added bonus of having one of the best strikers in the Premier League. I doubt that run of results happens if they didnt.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Of the 6 games played in December we have kept 2 clean sheets and only conceded 1 goal in two other games. The most we have conceded in a game is 2 including potential champions Liverpool.
That surely represents there is a chance of staying up if you look at goals being conceded as a barometer.
That early start where new players and a new team were being bedded in has skewed it

Either way it’s not great add to that in only 4 games we’ve managed to score more than 1 goal.

[Swizzlestick]

Did some rough stats on this, to get to 37 points we need to be averaging 1.4 points a game. Our current average is 0.6.

Newcastle are a team who are the closest to averaging this by the way, it's a very strong ask. I think this means we need 8 wins minimum (probably 9). Aside from Luton and Sheff Utd which teams are we likely to beat to get to that number?

Not saying likely but we’ve got Wolves, Fulham, Bournemouth, Brentford and Forest all to play at home. Tough ask but got to keep on keeping on.

[bf2k]

Regardless of any arguments regarding going down and coming back up under SD, there is one massive difference. To date, this current team hasn't shown one ounce of guts when it comes to the winning mentality, fighting for every ball, willing to put bodies on the line. Not once when we've gone behind this season has this current side been willing to try and get back into a game. So far, it's a completely spineless team, unwilling to go that extra mile to win matches.

Unless that mentality changes we'll go straight back down again if we get relegated this season and go up next term.

What you’re failing to recognise is the age and experience in this current team. They will have another 2 seasons of experience and will be better for it.

Both Pace and Kompany have said promotion was 2 years ahead of their schedule. We’ve just carried on the rebuild even though we got promoted.

I’m excited for the future regardless of what happens this season.

[Spijed]

What you’re failing to recognise is the age and experience in this current team. They will have another 2 seasons of experience and will be better for it.

Both Pace and Kompany have said promotion was 2 years ahead of their schedule. We’ve just carried on the rebuild even though we got promoted.

I’m excited for the future regardless of what happens this season.

But we'll always struggle in the Prem, and finally get relegated, never to return for many years, so why not put some effort into at least trying to stop up this season.

We should just plan for one season at a time. We simply can't afford to do anything else.

[Swizzlestick]

Regardless of any arguments regarding going down and coming back up under SD, there is one massive difference. To date, this current team hasn't shown one ounce of guts when it comes to the winning mentality, fighting for every ball, willing to put bodies on the line. Not once when we've gone behind this season has this current side been willing to try and get back into a game. So far, it's a completely spineless team, unwilling to go that extra mile to win matches.

Unless that mentality changes we'll go straight back down again if we get relegated this season and go up next term.

Sorry, this is nonsense. If what you’re stating is true, we wouldn’t have won a game this season. I’m not saying we couldn’t be better in terms of leadership and mentality, but to insinuate we haven’t tried to get back into the game once behind is ludicrous. Are you calling players like Brownhill, Taylor and Foster spineless? Just wild generalisations that smack of an agenda.

[Newcastleclaret93]

Sorry, this is nonsense. If what you’re stating is true, we wouldn’t have won a game this season. I’m not saying we couldn’t be better in terms of leadership and mentality, but to insinuate we haven’t tried to get back into the game once behind is ludicrous. Are you calling players like Brownhill, Taylor and Foster spineless? Just wild generalisations that smack of an agenda.

Tbf arnt we currently the worst team in the league for getting points when going behind?

I am not saying they arnt trying but I certainly think there’s a defeatist attitude that they don’t believe they can come back which is what I believe Spijed is referring to.

[Swizzlestick]

Tbf arnt we currently the worst team in the league for getting points when going behind?

I am not saying they arnt trying but I certainly think there’s a defeatist attitude that they don’t believe they can come back which is what I believe Spijed is referring to.

I'm sure spijed can speak for himself. His post seems pretty clear.

[Spijed]

Sorry, this is nonsense. If what you’re stating is true, we wouldn’t have won a game this season. I’m not saying we couldn’t be better in terms of leadership and mentality, but to insinuate we haven’t tried to get back into the game once behind is ludicrous. Are you calling players like Brownhill, Taylor and Foster spineless? Just wild generalisations that smack of an agenda.

The problem is there hasn't seemed to be any motivation from any player, let alone the more senior ones once we go behind. The feeling is that once we concede first then that's it and there's no way back. We've seen little evidence of players trying to galvanise others when the chips are down.

As soon as Liverpool scored you could see the body language of the players. It was only when VAR intervened that there was a lift in the game at the start of the second half.

Until that changes I can't see how things can improve.

[dsr]

Did some rough stats on this, to get to 37 points we need to be averaging 1.4 points a game. Our current average is 0.6.

Newcastle are a team who are the closest to averaging this by the way, it's a very strong ask. I think this means we need 8 wins minimum (probably 9). Aside from Luton and Sheff Utd which teams are we likely to beat to get to that number?

I can see the logic that says we need 8 wins to get to 37 points, but not the logic that says if we get 8 wins we're unlikely to get more than 1 draw.

It's been a good few years since the third bottom club got 36. I think 35 is the highest in the last few years, and that was us. So 7-4-8 would get us to 36.

[Swizzlestick]

The problem is there hasn't seemed to be any motivation from any player, let alone the more senior ones once we go behind. The feeling is that once we concede first then that's it and there's no way back. We've seen little evidence of players trying to galvanise others when the chips are down.

As soon as Liverpool scored you could see the body language of the players. It was only when VAR intervened that there was a lift in the game at the start of the second half.

Until that changes I can't see how things can improve.

I agree there's a lack of leadership on the pitch and we're missing a 'galvaniser' but that's a little different from insinuating the lads practically down tools. We saw the point out against Brighton (they showed tonight how ruthless they can be), we beat Luton after they equalised (the team with arguably the best mentality in the league), showed good PL nous away from home against an established PL team like Fulham. There's more to be done, obviously, but to say we shown 'not one ounce of guts' or 'completely spineless' is unfair to say the least.

[Spijed]

I agree there's a lack of leadership on the pitch and we're missing a 'galvaniser' but that's a little different from insinuating the lads practically down tools. We saw the point out against Brighton (they showed tonight how ruthless they can be), we beat Luton after they equalised (the team with arguably the best mentality in the league), showed good PL nous away from home against an established PL team like Fulham. There's more to be done, obviously, but to say we shown 'not one ounce of guts' or 'completely spineless' is unfair to say the least.

I'm not saying we down tools as such, but the players don't look like they are willing to run through brick walls once the situation gets tough.

[Swizzlestick]

I'm not saying we down tools as such, but the players don't look like they are willing to run through brick walls once the situation gets tough.

But I think that's just because we're a different team now. If you're expecting us to play like a Dyche team, you're going to be waiting a long time. Berge, for example, to me, applies maximum effort in a game, but he isn't going to be making salmon dives to stop the ball with his face. What he does do though, is constantly searches out the ball and tries to make us play. You could make a reasonable argument that we perhaps should have signed those type of players and sacrificed the style for a more industrious one, but we didn't. I don't think it's a lack of effort, I think it's a young team (perhaps youngest average age in the league? stand to be corrected on that one), that wants to play a certain way and is missing direction on the pitch. Maybe he might remedy that a little in Jan.

[Big Vinny K]

I'm not saying we down tools as such, but the players don't look like they are willing to run through brick walls once the situation gets tough.

Not sure about that.
I doubt very much VK or Bellamy would allow their players to not put in the maximum effort.
I’ve not seen this team down tools or stop trying. Low on confidence, out on their feet and making mistakes sometimes yes.

Not sure how many players these days can be described as willing to run through brick walls….or even what that means in todays game. But I do think when a player is not trying it can be very easily spotted by fans and I don’t believe we have had any players like that this season.

[Darnhill Claret]

It's clear to see that VK's instructions are to play football, whether we are level, leading or behind. Just like Brighton and Spurs to name 2. Their players are currently better at it than we are but that is the standard we are trying to reach. It might be painful to watch at times but there are no shortcuts.

[Holtyclaret]

They have the added bonus of having one of the best strikers in the Premier League. I doubt that run of results happens if they didnt.

I’d say more of an in form striker than one of the best personally but we’d need a couple of players hitting a similar purple patch if we’re too survive.

[claretburns]

Can we be twice as good in the end half of the season, as we were in the first?

We were in tge Championship.

All fingers crossed.

I think one of the reasons for our performances in the 2nd half of last season was the World Cup, whilst not many fans liked the season stopping midway through, this allowed Kompany a 2nd pre-season to get the players on the training ground and used to his style.

[Ampth7]

We concede on average 2 a game until that problem is addressed and we start to keep clean sheets more regularly there isn’t much chance of staying up.

Agree. That and the fact we have only scored 18 from 19 games with 5 coming from the Sheffield United game. I know it’s a bit simplistic to say we must be tighter at the back and more ruthless in front of goal, but it does highlight how much we are getting beaten up in both penalty areas.

[Newcastleclaret93]

If we are all being realistic we know the season is done.

We are going down more than likely in 19th place on about 23 points.

[South West Claret.]

Just remember it’s not over till it’s over

[Newcastleclaret93]

Just remember it’s not over till it’s over

I don’t mind a bit of hope, but if we are realistic we know it’s over we are all just hoping for the best.

We have shown nothing to suggest we will even come close to staying up