Can we avoid relegation? Points forecast.

[It Is What It Is]

Just looking at the remaining games and in my own personal, very optimistic but achievable scenario, I think 40 points is still a realistic prospect, therefore survival should be achieved.
Here goes my game points with my tin hat on:
CITY 0
FULHAM 3
LIVERPOOL 0
ARSENAL 1
PALACE 3
BOURNEMOUTH 3
WEST HAM 1
BRENTFORD 3
CHELSEA 0
WOLVES 3
EVERTON 1
BRIGHTON 3
SHEFF UTD 3
MAN UTD 0
NEWCASTLE 1
SPURS 0
FOREST 3
TOTAL 28 POINTS.

PLUS the 12 we have = 40 POINTS.

Last season Leeds survived on 38 points,
Season before we survived on 39 points
Before that 2019/20 season Villa survived on 35 points.

So......very achievable

[claretdj]

Like you're positiveity but let's get real we are just not good enough for this level unfortunately, same as Luton & Sheff utd all 3 of us miles off this level.

[ClaretOfMancunia]

Don't wanna **** in your cornflakes but there's no way we're beating Brighton or Wolves. If we stay up, it's only because Everton and Forest get deducted loads of points imo.

[CoolClaret]

If we finish the season on 40 points It will be the greatest turn around in the history of football*



*probably isn't but will seem like it to me.

[ClaretTony]

So you are predicting we'll get 28 more points from 17 games - that will be some going

[jedi_master]

We’ve won three games (arguably we’ve ‘won’ 5 if I include Forest and Luton where we were robbed by VAR).

We are not gonna win 9 out of 17 or a draw/win combo that gets near that figure. That’s unrealistic. We’re playing better but we’re not getting the results by a combination of luck and naivety.

I concur with the above, we’re down notwithstanding the possibility of points deductions. Those could be our saviour.

[clarets1978]

So you are predicting we'll get 28 more points from 17 games - that will be some going

In getting to that he's expecting us to win 3 out of 4 either side of an Easter defeat at Chelsea so 6 wins out of 9. I think that takes some believing!

[FCBurnley]

No. We had our chance last summer and blew it big time

[LeadBelly]

I sincerely hope I'm wrong but I cant see us getting past 30 points for the season. Of course that wont be anywhere near enough to keep us in the EPL (unless there are some major points reduction penalties for a couple of teams).

[RVclaret]

For a start our fortunes need to change, can’t keep missing key players for key games. We’re also owed 6 points from VAR, given the old ‘things even themselves out over the season’ adage. If both of those things happen, plus we add some extra quality in the next 8 days, then I’ve seen enough in the past dozen or so games to suggest we could land somewhere between 28-35. Top end of that and you might not rely on points deductions, bottom end definitely.

[elwaclaret]

I’m expecting it to end a lot closer than most seem to think on here. I still think (and hope) we may stay up, but no longer can I say I expect us to tbh.

[claptrappers_union]

I've not seen enough to suggest we can stay up now. I think the board have accepted it too.

Go again next season with VK's squad though.

[jojomk1]

We will be relegated and with a lot less than 30 points

[Clovius Boofus]

I've no doubt that we will be relegated. The main thing is coming straight back up, and being all the stronger for it when we do so - by then the squad should be more experienced and competitive. Well, that's my hope, anyway.

[It Is What It Is]

So you are predicting we'll get 28 more points from 17 games - that will be some going

I'm not predicting, it's just a possible achievable scenario.
Yes, optimistic, and really is some going to get 28 from possible 51 points but more teams are being slowly dragged into the mix and as you say ...17 games left.
Stranger things in life have happened in my 71 years on this planet..... who'd have thought we would have been playing European football just a few seasons ago....not many.

[Jamesy]

I really admire the OP’s optimism. Sadly there is more chance of me dating Claudia Schiffer than us achieving just 50% of his projected points total.

[FCBurnley]

It’s not easy to do a Burnley or a Leicester in the Championship. There are currently at least 6 ex PL teams struggling to get out of the Championship and one of them is barely clear of the relegation zone and has no money !

[It Is What It Is]

I really admire the OP’s optimism. Sadly there is more chance of me dating Claudia Schiffer than us achieving just 50% of his projected points total.

Claudia was fabulous company on all my many dates with her.
I am a gentleman so will say no more about it.

[dsr]

Finishing on about 25 points and staying up because of deductions for Forest/Everton would be just about a worst case scenario. IMO. Better to go down and sell half the squad, and play next season with the other half of the squad. Much more fun.

Due to my mother's age, we have to sit in the Longside Lounge (ie. indoor, behind glass) on cold days, which for 2 years has been done with profits of the share sale. Next year, it will have to be real money. And we aren't looking to shell out real money for the sort of football and VAR refereeing that we have seen this year!

[Jamesy]

Claudia was fabulous company on all my many dates with her.
I am a gentleman so will say no more about it.

You lucky sod, I have always fancied her.

[Vegas Claret]

I'd be surprised if we get 10 more points

[Woodleyclaret]

9 wins will see us safe
We need to get proactive in the window bringing in a tough tackling cm and a proven striker

[Jamesy]

9 wins will see us safe
We need to get proactive in the window bringing in a tough tackling cm and a proven striker

Piece of P!ss

[evensteadiereddie]

Claudia was fabulous company on all my many dates with her.
I am a gentleman so will say no more about it.

Scheiss, she told me I was the only Claret she'd ever bonked
Proper disillusioned now.




Or delusional....

[ElectroClaret]

We've won 3 out of 21 games.
What on earth gives anyone belief that we're suddenly
going to have a colossal about-turn in our form?

Hope it happens, but it's not very likely, is it?

[evensteadiereddie]

I don't think we'll be that far off especially if Everton and Forest get what they deserve.
No doubt we'll have a bit of a surge, most struggling teams do towards the end of the season but we have to put those chances away or we'll get nowhere.
We're not that bad a side.

[Jamesy]

Scheiss, she told me I was the only Claret she'd ever bonked
Proper disillusioned now.




Or delusional....

Nice one!
Most of the Frauleins I ever went with came at a price………. 50 Deutschmark! Oops, wrong messageboard.

[Kilson810]

We can't score, can't defend and can't win games, so it is pretty unlikely for me. Hope I am wrong but I've seen nothing to suggest we are going to turn up for the remainder of the season.

I think we go down with an abysmal 25 points or so.

[BOYSIE31]

We've won 3 out of 21 games.
What on earth gives anyone belief that we're suddenly
going to have a colossal about-turn in our form?

Hope it happens, but it's not very likely, is it?

And where would we be if the VAR decisions had gone in our favour - anything can happen yet

[clarets1978]

For the record, its not impossible. Leicester City had 19 points going into the final 8 games of the season and ended up comfortably stopping up with 41pts. They wouldnt have beleived they'd have done that going into those final eight games, let alone win the premier league next year...........................................................................................................................................................

So you heard it here first, if we stop up we'll be Premier League champions for the 2024/25 season

[Burnley1989]

Nope, but not overly bothered anymore, the days of me being arsed about relegation from the Premier League have long gone because I dont actually like the place.
I'll be gutted for about 48 hours when we go down and then I'll look forward to the championship fixtures and planning my away trips, and hopefully seeing us win many more games and challenge for top 2, which sounds weird as we would only end up back in the league I hate

[South West Claret.]

We can yes, but I’m unable to forcast our points total, next question.

[ElectroClaret]

And where would we be if the VAR decisions had gone in our favour - anything can happen yet

I suspect fans of most clubs could fairly ask
that question.

We're not the only VAR victims.

[MT03ALG]

Nice one!
Most of the Frauleins I ever went with came at a price………. 50 Deutschmark! Oops, wrong messageboard.

In Berlin the further you ventured from the Brandenburg Gate the cheaper the Ladies of the Night became
I spent 3 weeks on a Course in Berlin in 1985 and practised my German by asking the prices on my way home to my flat near Uhlandstrasse on the Kurfurstendamm (honest)

[kentonclaret]

And where would we be if the VAR decisions had gone in our favour - anything can happen yet

If “if’s and “but’s” were Candy and Nuts wouldn’t it be a Merry Christmas

[dsr]

I suspect fans of most clubs could fairly ask
that question.

We're not the only VAR victims.

Most of our lost points were because the ref made an idiotic decision and VAR refused to help him out. Only the Forest win-turned-to-draw was a VAR failure.

Sheffield United, on the other hand, have got a win v Wolves and a draw v West Ham for the same reason - that the ref made a mess of things and VAR refused to tell him so. VAR has spent most of the season with its hands over its eyes pretending not to see how many silly penalties are being given or ignored.

[Vincent'sCap]

Just looking at the remaining games and in my own personal, very optimistic but achievable scenario, I think 40 points is still a realistic prospect, therefore survival should be achieved.
Here goes my game points with my tin hat on:
CITY 0
FULHAM 3
LIVERPOOL 0
ARSENAL 1
PALACE 3
BOURNEMOUTH 3
WEST HAM 1
BRENTFORD 3
CHELSEA 0
WOLVES 3
EVERTON 1
BRIGHTON 3
SHEFF UTD 3
MAN UTD 0
NEWCASTLE 1
SPURS 0
FOREST 3
TOTAL 28 POINTS.

PLUS the 12 we have = 40 POINTS.

Last season Leeds survived on 38 points,
Season before we survived on 39 points
Before that 2019/20 season Villa survived on 35 points.

So......very achievable

Christ I'm well looking forward to that!

[AGENT_CLARET]

CITY 0
FULHAM 1
LIVERPOOL 0
ARSENAL 0
PALACE 0
BOURNEMOUTH 1
WEST HAM 0
BRENTFORD 1
CHELSEA 0
WOLVES 1
EVERTON 0
BRIGHTON 1
SHEFF UTD 3
MAN UTD 0
NEWCASTLE 0
SPURS 0
Forest 3

TOTAL 11 POINTS.

PLUS the 12 we have = 23 POINTS.

Not a cat in hells chance we stay up

[Ampth7]

In response to the OP………no

[Newcastleclaret93]

I'm not predicting, it's just a possible achievable scenario.
Yes, optimistic, and really is some going to get 28 from possible 51 points but more teams are being slowly dragged into the mix and as you say ...17 games left.
Stranger things in life have happened in my 71 years on this planet..... who'd have thought we would have been playing European football just a few seasons ago....not many.

Even with our improved form our return over the last 6 games has been 4 points.

If we carry this improved form on we will get another 11 points this season.

It’s not even remotely achievable to suggest we will get to 40 points.

Best we can hope for is Forrest and Everton get deducted points

[Claret86]

No chance

[ChorltonCharlie]

We aren't staying up because we're awful.

Few myths to bust...
* We haven't been unlucky recently. We've taken 8 points from 8 games, but the xG in those games would suggest a return of more like 5 points. From the 6 before that we lost them all, but could have easily have had a return of 3 points. Can even itself out, but we're not being 'unlucky'. For context we've deserved 5 points from 8 games which includes 20th, 18th and 17th at home.
* we haven't got a problem with taking chances, we have a problem creating them. We're over-performing our xG by 3 goals for the season. Mainly down to the Sheff Utd game, across the rest of the season we're bang on the xG which as it happens is the worst in the division.
* VAR is not a reason for our low points total. In only one scenario has it been incorrectly used and that we had an apology for. If you think we've been unfairly treated by VAR other than Forest, then I've got news for you. You'll find fans of every other team that think the same.

[jrgbfc]

No chance. This squad doesn't have the ability, or backbone to put together a run like that. Think its going to be a long 17 games, that Luton game has knocked the stuffing out of us and fans will start to turn on the likes of Tresor.

[Jamesy]

In Berlin the further you ventured from the Brandenburg Gate the cheaper the Ladies of the Night became
I spent 3 weeks on a Course in Berlin in 1985 and practised my German by asking the prices on my way home to my flat near Uhlandstrasse on the Kurfurstendamm (honest)

We only had to know funfzig pal. Or should I say my mates did. That was the price in Minden, Westfalia and the one street with the windows was called Kleine Paris. It was quite funny really because we all got paid on Fridays and “little Paris” was a first stop on a Friday evening for the single lads prior to lots of beer being consumed. If lads called there later in the evening after one or two too many, they were often slung out onto the street after 20 unproductive minutes by a couple of burly bouncers.
Hamburg was a whole different kettle of fish in terms of offerings and pricing structures. Need to get off this now as well off topic.
Back to the OP. Can we avoid relegation? Doubtful.

[dougcollins]

It's really not going to happen, is it.

[evensteadiereddie]

That's what the Fraulein said..

[elwaclaret]

It's really not going to happen, is it.

Where is the bulldog spirit? Our job is to go all out to make it happen.

[Jamesy]

That's what the Fraulein said..

Just before the two burly Krauts slung my mate onto the cobbled street of Kleine Paris!

Nice one!

[Jamesy]

Where is the bulldog spirit? Our job is to go all out to make it happen.

We want it to happen but are just being realistic. That’s all.

[elwaclaret]

We want it to happen but are just being realistic. That’s all.

I agree absolutely that we are prepared in case we fail; I do not accept we accept failure as a forgone conclusion.