Tonights Football

[South West Claret.]

At least we are still off the bottom tonight.

[Foshiznik]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/18982734 ... -nonsense/
Hmmmmmm.

Once relevant manager from 10/20 years ago criticises technology in modern day football shocker…

[CoolClaret]

I wouldn’t say I understand Moneyball per se, other than having watched the film a few times. But I seem to recall their manager, Brad Pitt, signed players who had unfashionable technique, or personal issues, and as a result were overlooked by higher spending competitors. But these same players’ statistics showed that if they were assembled in a team together they would get the required amount of runs, or tries or wickets or whatever they’re called in baseball to win matches and outperform their rivals whilst spending less money.

So, like I say, in what way is our approach similar to the Moneyball one?

The thing with Baseball is that the metrics used (RBI, OBP) are literally defining factors in how good a batter is. The sport is far more 'simple' than Football and really when you're batting (for the most part) it is you as an individual against the pitcher (and field)

Footy entirely different, moving parts, depends on your relatonship with the players around you etc etc.

Faaaar more to building a cohesive unit than data.

[StayingDown4Ever]

Darthlaw having an absolute nightmare in this thread

[Darthlaw]

He didn't turn us down - we made him an offer and then withdrew it because we had younger options. Whether we should or shouldn't have signed him is one argument but he definitely 100% did not turn us down.

I stand corrected in that case.

Looking at the Burnley Express article, Kompany stated we already had Redmond, Zaroury, Benson, Koleosho, Bruun Larssen and Odobert on the brink of signing. I'd still go so far as to say thats not rejecting Townsend in favour of saleable assets, namely rejecting adding him to them.

Regardless, I'm keen to see any other evidence that this is the unilateral club approach, to reject PL quality players in lieu of saleable assets.

[Goliath]

He didn't turn us down - we made him an offer and then withdrew it because we had younger options. Whether we should or shouldn't have signed him is one argument but he definitely 100% did not turn us down.

Has someone confirmed that it was because we had younger options. Thats a hell of an assumption if not.
Im pretty sure Kompany said himself after so long out injured he didnt want to bring him in and then not play him when he desperately needed games.
Its worked out brilliantly for Townsend in the end so it was probably the best resolution in the end

[Darthlaw]

Darthlaw having an absolute nightmare in this thread

feel free to crawl back into your stable.

Adults talking out here.

[Vegas Claret]

I’m not saying we should or shouldn’t have signed Townsend. But Darthlaw asked me to ‘present the 'evidence' oven ready PL players were available and rejected for potential sales value’, so I did.

Just having a friendly conversation Riley, nothing more. I've given you a very real reason for us deciding against Townsend, 19 months out. Not saying I'm right but it's as valid a piece of reasoning as yours - we simply do not know.

[Rileybobs]

I stand corrected in that case.

Looking at the Burnley Express article, Kompany stated we already had Redmond, Zaroury, Benson, Koleosho, Bruun Larssen and Odobert on the brink of signing. I'd still go so far as to say thats not rejecting Townsend in favour of saleable assets, namely rejecting adding him to them.

Regardless, I'm keen to see any other evidence that this is the unilateral club approach, to reject PL quality players in lieu of saleable assets.

I mean, that one is the clearest example as we literally had a seasoned PL player in the shower and told him he wasn’t needed, before signing an 18 year old. I’m not sure you’ll get a better example.

[Darthlaw]

I’m not saying we should or shouldn’t have signed Townsend. But Darthlaw asked me to ‘present the 'evidence' oven ready PL players were available and rejected for potential sales value’, so I did.

playerS

Who else was there to support your theory/conspiracy

[SalisburyClaret]

Townsend said in an interview that he could see the logic in the decision to withdraw the contract once he saw how Koleosho was playing. He realised that the fit wasn’t right for him but it still hurt.
All fair enough

[Rileybobs]

Just having a friendly conversation Riley, nothing more. I've given you a very real reason for us deciding against Townsend, 19 months out. Not saying I'm right but it's as valid a piece of reasoning as yours - we simply do not know.

I know mate, I’m being friendly back. Apologies if it isn’t coming across that way, the problem with communicating in text!!

Yes, the evidence may be that Odobert is a better player than Townsend, he certainly looks to have great potential. But all I was doing was showing an example of where we chose unproven youth over experience. I suppose we can all hypothesise, but the evidence looks pretty clear to me when you look at the squad and the signings made in summer.

[Darthlaw]

I mean, that one is the clearest example as we literally had a seasoned PL player in the shower and told him he wasn’t needed, before signing an 18 year old. I’m not sure you’ll get a better example.

That suggests we had 5 other wingers (already too many) with one on the brink and told him he wasn't needed.

Or is your whole theory of saleable assets over quality based upon us pulling the offer to Townsend when we had more resource for the wing than Boeing?

[Rileybobs]

playerS

Who else was there to support your theory/conspiracy

We didn’t have anyone else in the actual building who was then released to my knowledge. But I don’t need to support my theory as there are lots of players with Premier League experience - we’ve had to revert to using two of them this season who were bit part players last season in the Championship. So it’s a stretch to say that none were available to sign.

[Rileybobs]

That suggests we had 5 other wingers (already too many) with one on the brink and told him he wasn't needed.

Or is your whole theory of saleable assets over quality based upon us pulling the offer to Townsend when we had more resource for the wing than Boeing?

No, my whole theory of saleable assets is based on the evidence of our transfer activity in the summer (and to a degree before) and the current ‘roster’, as Brad Pitt would say.

If you need more evidence than that then good luck and Godspeed.

[ClaretTony]

Has someone confirmed that it was because we had younger options. Thats a hell of an assumption if not.
Im pretty sure Kompany said himself after so long out injured he didnt want to bring him in and then not play him when he desperately needed games.
Its worked out brilliantly for Townsend in the end so it was probably the best resolution in the end

Yes - Townsend has. He said he was offered a deal and then it was withdrawn.

Kompany said recently: "“There was a succession of things which meant we had very few players available and then because of that, we offered him a contract and because he did really well. But then Luca came in and trained with us for a week, Odobert came in, Bruun Larsen was way fitter than what we thought he would be, so there was no point bringing in a senior player who was working the way he was working to just stall him.

[Darthlaw]

It’s quite obvious from the profile of players, and the unbalanced nature of the recruitment, that we prioritised signing players for future value ahead of competing in the division this season.

So, not adding to our existing 6 wingers with the signing of Andros Townsend aside, it’s not quite obvious that we this prioritisation was the case or the strategic approach at all.

But in hindsight it does make a nice conspiracy?

I’m just trying to be crystal clear you’re saying from the outset it was the approach to intentionally sign lesser players on the off chance of profit.

[Rileybobs]

So, not adding to our existing 6 wingers with the signing of Andros Townsend aside, it’s not quite obvious that we this prioritisation was the case or the strategic approach at all.

But in hindsight it does make a nice conspiracy?

I thought you said adults were talking, yet you’re being quite disingenuous calling this a conspiracy.

Take a look at our squad. Take a look at the ages of our players. Take a look at the balance of the squad, the numerous players all competing for the same positions. Take a look at some key positions where we have inadequate quality or quantity. Take a look at the amount of money we’ve spent. There’s your evidence, if you don’t agree with my ‘conspiracy’ then fine, but the evidence supports it.

And if this squad was assembled in the belief that it would be able to adequately compete this season, that’s an even worse indictment on the board and VK than my ‘conspiracy’.

[aggi]

'"True football experts recognise talent with the naked eye. They don't rely on numbers in a computer to scout players.''

If that doesn't scream we're taking the moneyball approach, nothing will.

It's not like other clubs don't have big data departments with teams of data scientists to identify talent. It's like all those articles a few years back complaining that Liverpool had surrendered control to Michael Edwards and his stats. They went quiet after a while.

[Rileybobs]

I’m just trying to be crystal clear you’re saying from the outset it was the approach to intentionally sign lesser players on the off chance of profit.

Missed your last para…

I’m saying that it was our approach to prioritise signing players with potentially high resale value above avoiding relegation this season. Is this really much different to those saying we’re in the early stages of a ‘project’?

As alluded to above, if for the sake of argument we had £100m to spend on players with the main aim being to keep us in this division, would we have assembled the squad we have?

[Rileybobs]

It's not like other clubs don't have big data departments with teams of data scientists to identify talent. It's like all those articles a few years back complaining that Liverpool had surrendered control to Michael Edwards and his stats. They went quiet after a while.

Interestingly our previous approach under Dyche was much more in the Moneyball mould.

[Darthlaw]

I thought you said adults were talking, yet you’re being quite disingenuous calling this a conspiracy.

Take a look at our squad. Take a look at the ages of our players. Take a look at the balance of the squad, the numerous players all competing for the same positions. Take a look at some key positions where we have inadequate quality or quantity. Take a look at the amount of money we’ve spent. There’s your evidence, if you don’t agree with my ‘conspiracy’ then fine, but the evidence supports it.

And if this squad was assembled in the belief that it would be able to adequately compete this season, that’s an even worse indictment on the board and VK than my ‘conspiracy’.

I look at the squad and the players. I think we’ve massively unbalanced the side with strengthening in the wrong areas. (Wing) and failing to improve in others (full backs and centre forwards).

I’m also long enough in the tooth to know there’s no way to predict the merry go round in defence, thanks to injuries. There’s no way to account for our first choice striker needing to step back for his mental health mid season. Certainly there’s no way to accurately predict who will and won’t hit the ground running.

Ultimately the point I’m making is that it’s easy in hindsight to say (because of where we are) that there are ulterior motives to explain what has gone wrong and the belief that we intentionally nuked our chance to stay up is a particularly conspiratorial one.

Did we stuff the transfer window? Yes.
Did we sign too many wingers? Yes.
Did we fail to sign another striker and fullbacks? Yes
Have we signed players like Tresor and Amdouni who haven’t gone on to do as well as their rep would suggest? Yes.

Did we make all of these mistakes intentionally to hopefully make money if these saleable assets came good? I don’t think so, you do and that’s fair enough. We can agree to disagree.

[Rileybobs]

I look at the squad and the players. I think we’ve massively unbalanced the side with strengthening in the wrong areas. (Wing) and failing to improve in others (full backs and centre forwards).

I’m also long enough in the tooth to know there’s no way to predict the merry go round in defence, thanks to injuries. There’s no way to account for our first choice striker needing to step back for his mental health mid season. Certainly there’s no way to accurately predict who will and won’t hit the ground running.

Ultimately the point I’m making is that it’s easy in hindsight to say (because of where we are) that there are ulterior motives to explain what has gone wrong and the belief that we intentionally nuked our chance to stay up is a particularly conspiratorial one.

Did we stuff the transfer window? Yes.
Did we sign too many wingers? Yes.
Did we fail to sign another striker and fullbacks? Yes
Have we signed players like Tresor and Amdouni who haven’t gone on to do as well as their rep would suggest? Yes.

Did we do all of this intentionally to hopefully make money? I don’t think so, you do and that’s fair enough. We can agree to disagree.

But obviously we did it to make money. You only have to watch Mission to Burnley and they don’t make any effort to suggest different.

I haven’t said we intentionally nuked our chance of staying up, this is where you’re deliberately misrepresenting what I said. I said we prioritised buying players who were more likely to give us a financial return over buying players who were more likely to keep us in this division. I really can’t see what’s so controversial about this.

[Darthlaw]

that we prioritised signing players for future value ahead of competing in the division this season.

No misrepresentation at all. You stated the club was choosing resale value over competing in the division.

Ideally every player we sign will increase in value, surely that’s a prerequisite?

I just believe stating that the club has intentionally taken the tactic not to compete in the division is entirely based upon hindsight, rather than any evidence to the contrary.

Agree to disagree anyway.

[Rileybobs]

No misrepresentation at all. You stated the club was choosing resale value over competing in the division.

Ideally every player we sign will increase in value, surely that’s a prerequisite?

I just believe stating that the club has intentionally taken the tactic not to compete in the division is entirely based upon hindsight, rather than any evidence to the contrary.

Again, I haven’t said that have I?! Even the post you quoted says something entirely different. I said ‘prioritise’. Prioritising one objective ahead of another does not mean that a decision was taken to deliberately not achieve the second objective.

[NewClaret]

Again, I haven’t said that have I?! Even the post you quoted says something entirely different. I said ‘prioritise’. Prioritising one objective ahead of another does not mean that a decision was taken to deliberately not achieve the second objective.

I personally find it incomprehensible that anyone could believe our club have sought to prioritise signing players to generate profit over remaining a Premier League team and securing the ~£50m per season additional revenue that guarantees.

Blows my mind.

[Goliath]

Yes - Townsend has. He said he was offered a deal and then it was withdrawn.

Kompany said recently: "“There was a succession of things which meant we had very few players available and then because of that, we offered him a contract and because he did really well. But then Luca came in and trained with us for a week, Odobert came in, Bruun Larsen was way fitter than what we thought he would be, so there was no point bringing in a senior player who was working the way he was working to just stall him.

This just confirms what i was saying. Kompany couldnt promise him refular football so didnt eant to hold him back.
He doesnt say he didnt sign him because he was older at all, he basically says it would be disrespectful to bring in a senior pro just to sit on the bench and stall his progression which is quite honourable.

[ClaretTony]

This just confirms what i was saying. Kompany couldnt promise him refular football so didnt eant to hold him back.
He doesnt say he didnt sign him because he was older at all, he basically says it would be disrespectful to bring in a senior pro just to sit on the bench and stall his progression which is quite honourable.

We offered him a deal and then withdrew it. If you are happy treating people in that way then fine.

[dsr]

We offered him a deal and then withdrew it. If you are happy treating people in that way then fine.

The crucial question is whether he accepted the deal, or whether he was given a time limit to think about it. If he said that he wanted to sign, or if the deal was pulled after within the time limit, and then it was pulled, that's poor. But if it was an open-ended offer and he was still thinking over his options, then it's not so bad.

[CrosspoolClarets]

The crucial question is whether he accepted the deal, or whether he was given a time limit to think about it. If he said that he wanted to sign, or if the deal was pulled after within the time limit, and then it was pulled, that's poor. But if it was an open-ended offer and he was still thinking over his options, then it's not so bad.

I think he said he was in the shower and was about to go up and sign his deal then got told it was all off, and he was in tears.

Lots of examples of ruthlessness in our thinking this season, both VK and the wider club, some of it for the better and some not. Personally I don’t think we have missed him that much because JBG does set up quite a few chances, but I’d still have signed him, for sure.

[Goliath]

We offered him a deal and then withdrew it. If you are happy treating people in that way then fine.

I do think thats fine as long as it was communicated to Townsend properly which it sounds like it was. What's the issue with withdrawing the deal, its a business, itd be pretty daft to go through with it just to keep Townsend happy.

I get that you aren't Kompanys biggest fan but think youre barking up the wrong tree on this one in questiong his character. As far as i can see , throughout his career, he has shown himself to be a strong and thoughtful leader with not even a hint of any issues behind the scenes.
There's a few comments on this thread, more so than yours that are toeing the line I think on whats acceptable when talking about the recruitment business.

Unfortunately this is brought on by a chairman who refuses to communicate about anything meaningful

[Clive 1960]

Doesn't matter if we signed Townsend or not we are still not good enough to survive in this league as the table doesn't lie , just hope we can get up at first time of asking next season or we could be in trouble financially..

[RammyClaret61]

How did Everton go on tonight?

[Vegas Claret]

I know mate, I’m being friendly back. Apologies if it isn’t coming across that way, the problem with communicating in text!!

Yes, the evidence may be that Odobert is a better player than Townsend, he certainly looks to have great potential. But all I was doing was showing an example of where we chose unproven youth over experience. I suppose we can all hypothesise, but the evidence looks pretty clear to me when you look at the squad and the signings made in summer.

Evidence or not I think we can all agree there was just far too many players of 'potential' signed, we did exactly the same as Southampton did except they started with a far better squad and still went down. The thing that I genuinely cannot get my head around is Kompany not bringing in big lads - it's the first thing Pep did at City, filled the team with units to complement the likes of the Silva's etc. That's the biggest (excuse the pun) reason Luton are doing well, their most talented player is Barkley and even he is over 6ft, for the most part they are a huge team so they can compete especially in the home games.

[Quicknick]

Evidence or not I think we can all agree there was just far too many players of 'potential' signed, we did exactly the same as Southampton did except they started with a far better squad and still went down. The thing that I genuinely cannot get my head around is Kompany not bringing in big lads - it's the first thing Pep did at City, filled the team with units to complement the likes of the Silva's etc. That's the biggest (excuse the pun) reason Luton are doing well, their most talented player is Barkley and even he is over 6ft, for the most part they are a huge team so they can compete especially in the home games.

Agree with every word.

[claretonthecoast1882]

Wow, skim reading through this isn't the way to start the day.

Why don't some of you who do nothing but whinge about the club find something else to do with your time, it is like they enjoy being miserable. It is pretty much the same posters week in week out who no doubt will be on tonight match thread having another go. The only saving grace is that you can guarantee you won't be sat next to any of them tonight.

[Newcastleclaret93]

Wow, skim reading through this isn't the way to start the day.

Why don't some of you who do nothing but whinge about the club find something else to do with your time, it is like they enjoy being miserable. It is pretty much the same posters week in week out who no doubt will be on tonight match thread having another go. The only saving grace is that you can guarantee you won't be sat next to any of them tonight.

Haha I saw you had posted and I literally knew word for word what it would say before opening the page.

[claretonthecoast1882]

Haha I saw you had posted and I literally knew word for word what it would say before opening the page.

I will buy you a pint at the match tonight you sound like you could do with one, time do you expect to arrive ?

[NewClaret]

Evidence or not I think we can all agree there was just far too many players of 'potential' signed, we did exactly the same as Southampton did except they started with a far better squad and still went down. The thing that I genuinely cannot get my head around is Kompany not bringing in big lads - it's the first thing Pep did at City, filled the team with units to complement the likes of the Silva's etc. That's the biggest (excuse the pun) reason Luton are doing well, their most talented player is Barkley and even he is over 6ft, for the most part they are a huge team so they can compete especially in the home games.

I agree with this Vegas. It’s a much more coherent argument that we prioritised technical quality over physicality in the summer.

But I think if you look at the two players we’re most closely linked with this window, it’s Esteve and Oosterwolde, both of whom share two traits - they’re fast and massive. Gueye is 6ft 2 also, so I sense Kompany is learning and that’s all I ask.

IF we had Oshea, Esteve, Oosterwolde, Berge, Gueye, Foster in the team, suddenly we don’t look quite so lightweight.

Would not surprise me at all if Pep and Kompany have discussed it with his “I know what he’s trying to do” comment yesterday.

[Guller Bull]

It might have been mentioned earlier in the thread (haven’t read through it all) Scott Twine didn’t feature last night for Bristol C due to a quad injury. Apparently not long term but the lad does seem to be having a poor run of luck.

[Madpete]

I think the problem is that Burnley FC thought that last season’s results meant we had cracked it & it would be plain sailing with a great young manager who could walk on water & a sustainable policy of buying & selling that would turn a profit.Unfortunately it’s not easy to win football games as this season has shown & whilst we’re not down yet it will take some divine intervention to save us.I always thought that Luton might escape the drop but perhaps for the wrong reasons: because their ground would be hard to play in for opponents with its tight,closely packed stands.I’ve seen it all over the years so I’m not despondent…yet!

[aggi]

Evidence or not I think we can all agree there was just far too many players of 'potential' signed, we did exactly the same as Southampton did except they started with a far better squad and still went down. The thing that I genuinely cannot get my head around is Kompany not bringing in big lads - it's the first thing Pep did at City, filled the team with units to complement the likes of the Silva's etc. That's the biggest (excuse the pun) reason Luton are doing well, their most talented player is Barkley and even he is over 6ft, for the most part they are a huge team so they can compete especially in the home games.

Because big lads with good technical ability cost a lot of money. If you look at what our first XI is we're reasonably physical through the middle (whichever two centre halves, Berge, Brownhill to an extent, Foster). If you want big, physical, skilful wingers and full-backs you're paying a lot of money.

[Newcastleclaret93]

I will buy you a pint at the match tonight you sound like you could do with one, time do you expect to arrive ?

Anyone that pays to go to city away (especially this season) should be instantly granted a free season ticket for next season.

As a reward for the pain they will witness tonight haha

[bfcjg]

3 teams have to go down that's a fact, it's how we are going down. The money invested with better management , better selection means we shouldn't be in this position. I'm all in favour of selling to survive it's what we have always done ,it's the massive turnover to start this process that has p1ssed on the chips.

[Anonymous Claret]

Looking back in hindsight we made quite a few mistakes in relation to the recruitment last summer. However at the time I thought that it had been a very good transfer window and I saw the reasoning behind the policy that we adopted especially in buying younger players to develop. VK as well as a lot of us on here probably realise that mistakes were made and I am sure that he will learn from those mistakes. I doubt that he will go into the finer details publicly and nor should he.
Some posters on here had concerns around recruitment at the start of the season and appear to revel in repeatedly letting everyone know that they were right.
Early in the season our performances were very poor in the main but the last couple of months with the exception of the Everton game I think that we have competed quite well in most games. We may have left it too late but if that's the case, so be it, I am sure that we will be stronger for it.
Personally I am still very happy to have Vinny has our manager and trust him to get it right whether that is this or next season.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Definitely a debate to be had about the transfer policy.

Digging the club out for changing their minds late on signing a free agent is just petty.

[jojomk1]

Personally I am still very happy to have Vinny has our manager and trust him to get it right whether that is this or next season.

Doubt it will be this season
We live in hope for next

[warksclaret]

Luton remind me of Wimbledon of the seventies/eighties. They are fearless and will put their head to anything. That bobbing ball in the six yard box was going to get a Luton head on it for their first goal. They absolutely give it everything and you have to take your hat off to their fighting spirit. In Rob Edwards they have the perfect coach for them, obviously a huge motivator-surely destined for better things. Not quite sure how long they can keep it up, but I fear their success will lead to our downfall in the PL, because they were one team I would have betted on finishing above last August

[Ric_C]

As a slight positive, puts our result against Luton the other week into bit more perspective

[CoolClaret]

As a slight positive, puts our result against Luton the other week into bit more perspective

What perspective is that, then?

That they prepared for this league significantly better with less time and a smaller budget?