Mud analytics

[NewClaret]

No. He gets left out because he's bloody awful.

Proves the point that players are not going to be played if they’re not good enough, regardless of how they were scouted.

[Chester Perry]

So I first raised the subject of Mud Analytics almost a year ago now, and there was little concern or reaction about it.

When I first of it there was also talk of players being shown properties in Manchester to rent by people in that sector that Kompany has ties with - Kompany has a number of apartment buildings there and a buisness relationship with one of the major developers/letting agency - that said I know of no evidence that Kompany's business interests have profited from his time at the club

the last I post about Mud Analytics was on the ALK Strategy thread about this time last Monday, it may quell some over-reaction about things we don't know

......On MUD Analytics

their accounts tell us that they have 0 (zero) employees, we know that the two owners are active at the club and analysts working at the club have claimed to be working for MUD Analytics, it is quite possible that Mud Analytics provide analyst resourcing to the club as a type of agency and possibly some proprietary skill/data sets. The owners of MUD Analytics do seem prominent in defining Burnley FC's recruitment strategy and the execution of it
.........

[123EasyasBFC]

Apparently in charge of our recruitment, also happens to be VK’s business with Lee Mooney who was at city previously.

Something doesn’t sit right with this for me. Conflict of interest maybe.

Does it only not sit right with you this season, or did last summers signings not sit right either?

[Nonayforever]

Trafford?

Yes.

[blatherwickstattoos]

Does it only not sit right with you this season, or did last summers signings not sit right either?

Apparently only started using them the summer just gone.

[Chester Perry]

Apparently only started using them the summer just gone.

If you watch MtB Lee Mooney was in at the club and answering questions in board/planning meetings more or less as Kompany arrived

[blatherwickstattoos]

If you watch MtB Lee Mooney was in at the club and answering questions in board/planning meetings more or less as Kompany arrived

I wondered who that was. Maybe they are good at targeting championship players only in this case

[clansman]

Chester
The interesting thing about your last post is that you mention the possibility of the analysts at the club working for MUD.
Doesn’t seem to fit in with the small company with no employees and just 2 Directors. Of course the last accounts are relatively old so last summer they may have employed some staff.
It all suggests that Mud work only for Burnley but who really pays the wages of the analysts?
As discussed above it would be interesting to hear from the club what the contractual relationship is.
Also what if another club asked Mud for help. Where would their priorities lie if they find talent?

[fidelcastro]

It's even a crap name for a company.

[jrgbfc]

He was definitely left out of the full squad for the first three games and I seem to remember the suggestion was that he was injured.

That did coincide with the transfer window ending though, so maybe a move had been on the cards. Think he was linked with a return to Leeds in summer?

But in any event, it was a fairly swift resolution and he’s been in the team ever since bar injury/suspension.

It felt to me like he only picked Taylor when he didn't really have a choice. Tried to erase most of this season from memory but I could have sworn he tried Delcroix, Al dakhil and even Roberts at left back ahead of him.

[123EasyasBFC]

Apparently only started using them the summer just gone.

Apparently, that fits the narrative doesn’t it

[aggi]

Maybe things will change but there is no indication at the moment that there are significant monies going through MUD. If you compare it to something like Agents' fees you'll see millions going out through there.

A third party doing analytics isn't that unusual, although part owned by a manager is unusual (although we have no idea how active a role he takes). Analytics FC are obviously a well known one (who Burnley have worked with).

The suggestions that Kompany is favouring MUD signings really boils down to Kompany is favouring Kompany signings which isn't that unusual for any manager.

[Chester Perry]

Chester
The interesting thing about your last post is that you mention the possibility of the analysts at the club working for MUD.
Doesn’t seem to fit in with the small company with no employees and just 2 Directors. Of course the last accounts are relatively old so last summer they may have employed some staff.
It all suggests that Mud work only for Burnley but who really pays the wages of the analysts?
As discussed above it would be interesting to hear from the club what the contractual relationship is.
Also what if another club asked Mud for help. Where would their priorities lie if they find talent?

The one I was very aware of was Marc Boixasa - though it seems he as now become a full time employee at the club - if you look at the second entry of his experience he pairs Mud Analytics/Burnley FC

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/marc-boixasa-37b5a117

[aggi]

Just on Lee Mooney, he seems pretty well thought of. Came though Man CIty who are probably the market leaders in this area. He started with a commercial background rather than football which is becoming increasingly common. I think a lot of people underestimate just how complex the models that are utilised are, it's way beyond passes completed or distance run or whatever, it's things like running Bayesian models to try and work out what would have happened if a player had passed rather than shot at this instance and the likely outcomes from that.

[Chester Perry]

Just on Lee Mooney, he seems pretty well thought of. Came though Man CIty who are probably the market leaders in this area. He started with a commercial background rather than football which is becoming increasingly common. I think a lot of people underestimate just how complex the models that are utilised are, it's way beyond passes completed or distance run or whatever, it's things like running Bayesian models to try and work out what would have happened if a player had passed rather than shot at this instance and the likely outcomes from that.

It is why clubs like Manchester City are competing with Hedge funds and the like for the top analysts to do bespoke modelling - they recruit Physics and Chemistry PhD's because they are the cones with the training to creating hugely complicated models through which to run the data through - at that level the models tend to be bespoke to a particular clubs demands.

If you look at Lee Mooney's linked in page, he has as many relationships with these types of people as he has with top level sports thinkers - aggi is right, he is very highly regarded

[randomclaret2]

Just on Lee Mooney, he seems pretty well thought of. Came though Man CIty who are probably the market leaders in this area. He started with a commercial background rather than football which is becoming increasingly common. I think a lot of people underestimate just how complex the models that are utilised are, it's way beyond passes completed or distance run or whatever, it's things like running Bayesian models to try and work out what would have happened if a player had passed rather than shot at this instance and the likely outcomes from that.

It's working a treat this season...

[jrgbfc]

On the evidence of last summer maybe it's too complicated for it's own good. Too much focus on stats/algorithms and not enough taking players character into account.

[CoolClaret]

Clear conflict of interest and I don't think would be allowed at any other club and highlights the inexperience in (british) football throughout our club.

Another area of the club that has been leaned out - now what happens if the manager is performing extremely poorly or has an offer to go elsewhere?

As for the stuff about players/the club using residential property for players in MCR through contacts of VK, I just think that sort of thing shouldn't happen; it's proper Tory behaviour.

You can use your bayesian models and predictors, fantastic but ultimately they do not take into account how 11 players and the wider squad are going to gel and form a cohesive unit, or if they chose a shot instead of a pass because something in their reptilian brain at that particular moment told them to do so.

In fact, if someone said "hey pick a team that was picked purely on data points" then I'd expect it to look a bit like what we look right now; totally disjointed.

On City - Pep is on record basically saying that data and stats are great and all but what seperates him and what he gets paid for... his eyes

little article here where Pep himself even says its not the be all and end all :

https://www.mancity.com/news/mens/pep-g ... o-63781676

I'd actually suggest solely to recruit and play players on this type of thing is peak Dunning-Kruger.

Finally, for the gazillionth time... Football is such a complex dynamic sport; in much more simplified sport where certain metrics DO determine a players success (RBI/OBP in baseball) the team that originally took data analysis to the Nth degree the Oakland As still didn't win the World Series...

[Claretitus]

Does Tresor get left out as he has already been sold and they don't want him injured to prevent losing out on a dividend ?

We can but hope and pray so.

[Rileybobs]

Maybe things will change but there is no indication at the moment that there are significant monies going through MUD. If you compare it to something like Agents' fees you'll see millions going out through there.

A third party doing analytics isn't that unusual, although part owned by a manager is unusual (although we have no idea how active a role he takes). Analytics FC are obviously a well known one (who Burnley have worked with).

The suggestions that Kompany is favouring MUD signings really boils down to Kompany is favouring Kompany signings which isn't that unusual for any manager.

It’s quite possible that MUD receive a commission on future sales though isn’t it. And that would be where Kompany’s motives could be questioned with regards to signings and team selections.

[boatshed bill]

I don't think it's a conflict of interest but I do think it's super clear too much trust has been given to Kompany. If he left tomorrow we would not have a recruitment department.

We'd get a new manager and a new recruitment team, nothing to fret over

[Paul Waine]

It’s quite possible that MUD receive a commission on future sales though isn’t it. And that would be where Kompany’s motives could be questioned with regards to signings and team selections.

Wasn't managers receiving a cut of transfer sales profits "old school" football?

[123EasyasBFC]

It’s quite possible that MUD receive a commission on future sales though isn’t it. And that would be where Kompany’s motives could be questioned with regards to signings and team selections.

Players have to be good enough and playing well to warrant being sold for him to earn commission.

However the all concept of thinking kompany gets financial gain from any player we sign is crazy

[Vim Fuego]

Pongs a bit doesn't it

[Rileybobs]

Wasn't managers receiving a cut of transfer sales profits "old school" football?

Yes it has been known to happen in the past I believe, not sure that makes it right though. Again this is a clear conflict of interest.

I wonder whether people would be as relaxed about this if Sam Allardyce was our manager and a director of MUD?

[Paul Waine]

MUD Analytics accounts are available on Companies House. The only thing is MUD files micro accounts, just a very limited balance sheet. Micro accounts aren't subject to audit.

If people are interested, Vincent Kompany is the director of a number of limited companies that file accounts at Companies House. A number of these companies were started when Kompany was still playing for Man City.

We can all be 100% certain that Alan Pace knew all there is to know about Vincent Kompany's companies before he was signed as BFC manager.

[Rileybobs]

Players have to be good enough and playing well to warrant being sold for him to earn commission.

Yes of course, but it could lead to a manager signing lots of young attacking players in the hope that one or two pay off, as opposed to signing two or three safer bets in more critical positions. It could lead to a manager persisting with an out of form player for longer than they should as they are viewed as a future investment rather than a current asset.

I trust Kompany, he seems like an honest man, but I still don’t like this conflict of interest.

[NewClaret]

It’s quite possible that MUD receive a commission on future sales though isn’t it. And that would be where Kompany’s motives could be questioned with regards to signings and team selections.

There’s no evidence we even use them so the specific terms of such an arrangement is a big jump to make.

I’d say there’s more chance that Kompany and his whole team get a commission on all player sales which would negate or significantly mitigate any real conflict of interest in a similar arrangement with MUD.

[Chester Perry]

Wasn't managers receiving a cut of transfer sales profits "old school" football?

very much still part of it from what I understand - Dyche had it in his contract re academy talent and probably still does at Everton - it never seemed to distract him from the primary objectives through

[Rileybobs]

MUD Analytics accounts are available on Companies House. The only thing is MUD files micro accounts, just a very limited balance sheet. Micro accounts aren't subject to audit.

If people are interested, Vincent Kompany is the director of a number of limited companies that file accounts at Companies House. A number of these companies were started when Kompany was still playing for Man City.

We can all be 100% certain that Alan Pace knew all there is to know about Vincent Kompany's companies before he was signed as BFC manager.

Obviously Pace knows, that isn’t the point. And I don’t think anybody has a problem with Kompany being a director of as many companies as he wants - that’s not the issue.

[Rileybobs]

There’s no evidence we even use them so the specific terms of such an arrangement is a big jump to make.

I’d say there’s more chance that Kompany and his whole team get a commission on all player sales which would negate or significantly mitigate any real conflict of interest in a similar arrangement with MUD.

Kompany getting a commission on all player sales certainly wouldn’t negate any conflict of interest. Completely the opposite in fact.

[Chester Perry]

Must say I am interested why this is an issue for some now, It wasn't any other time I brought it up - even when I speculated about the potential for the club to be very deeply reliant on Kompany's business empire. Since that time all of Kompany's business interests have filed accounts that overlap his first year at our club.

I will repeat - there is no evidence currently available that the club are allowing Kompany's business to profit from them

[NewClaret]

Here’s a thought…

We’re going down. So are Sheffield United and barring any points deductions saving them, so are Luton.

Let’s assume they don’t use any data analysis in their recruitment.

I’m left wondering, as a fan, which of those three clubs would I be more excited about watching next year?

Burnley with an analytics system that’s brought us Foster, Benson, Zaroury, Tella, Maatsen, Koleosho, Odobert, Assingnon, Esteve, Beyer, etc, etc… or Luton & Sheffield United?

Theres not even a question in it for me.

[Rileybobs]

Here’s a thought…

We’re going down. So are Sheffield United and barring any points deductions saving them, so are Luton.

Let’s assume they don’t use any data analysis in their recruitment.

I’m left wondering, as a fan, which of those three clubs would I be more excited about watching next year?

Burnley with an analytics system that’s brought us Foster, Benson, Zaroury, Tella, Maatsen, Koleosho, Odobert, Assingnon, Esteve, Beyer, etc, etc… or Luton & Sheffield United?

Theres not even a question in it for me.

Not sure why you’ve asked that question then. It doesn’t really mean anything.

[123EasyasBFC]

Yes of course, but it could lead to a manager signing lots of young attacking players in the hope that one or two pay off, as opposed to signing two or three safer bets in more critical positions. It could lead to a manager persisting with an out of form player for longer than they should as they are viewed as a future investment rather than a current asset.

I trust Kompany, he seems like an honest man, but I still don’t like this conflict of interest.

How does persisting with an out of form player help earn kompany commission. Just find it strange for anyone to suggest that any signing made wasn’t made for the best interests of Burnley. The same recruitment system used last summer didn’t have anyone questioning it but this season because it’s gone wrong there’s questions.

There would be a thread about it if we were sitting 12th in the table right now.

Someone might aswell make a thread about players with puma boots, Kompany sponsored by puma and we have 5 or 6 with puma boots, conflict of interest

[boyyanno]

Here’s a thought…

We’re going down. So are Sheffield United and barring any points deductions saving them, so are Luton.

Let’s assume they don’t use any data analysis in their recruitment.

I’m left wondering, as a fan, which of those three clubs would I be more excited about watching next year?

Burnley with an analytics system that’s brought us Foster, Benson, Zaroury, Tella, Maatsen, Koleosho, Odobert, Assingnon, Esteve, Beyer, etc, etc… or Luton & Sheffield United?

Theres not even a question in it for me.

But this is a perfect example of how we've got it wrong isn't it?

You're lauding our business over Luton and yet they're doing better than us and arguably recruited better too. Why not ask who would you rather watch this season, Barkley and Townsend or Tresor and Amdouni?

There's a really bad mindset in modern football that flashy players are the best. It's mental when you look at the season we are currently having and then compare it to the workmanlike stuff under Dyche. We used to be substance over style but it feels like a lot only care about style over substance now. Ironically we're failing at both.

[Tall Paul]

Here’s a thought…

We’re going down. So are Sheffield United and barring any points deductions saving them, so are Luton.

Let’s assume they don’t use any data analysis in their recruitment.

I’m left wondering, as a fan, which of those three clubs would I be more excited about watching next year?

Burnley with an analytics system that’s brought us Foster, Benson, Zaroury, Tella, Maatsen, Koleosho, Odobert, Assingnon, Esteve, Beyer, etc, etc… or Luton & Sheffield United?

Theres not even a question in it for me.

Bit of a daft assumption, I'm pretty sure all clubs use data analysis these days.

[boyyanno]

How does persisting with an out of form player help earn kompany commission. Just find it strange for anyone to suggest that any signing made wasn’t made for the best interests of Burnley. The same recruitment system used last summer didn’t have anyone questioning it but this season because it’s gone wrong there’s questions.

There would be a thread about it if we were sitting 12th in the table right now.

Someone might aswell make a thread about players with puma boots, Kompany sponsored by puma and we have 5 or 6 with puma boots, conflict of interest

I don't think Riley is suggesting anything. Just illustrating how it is a conflict of interest and why people may feel, rightly so, uneasy about it.

[Rileybobs]

How does persisting with an out of form player help earn kompany commission. Just find it strange for anyone to suggest that any signing made wasn’t made for the best interests of Burnley. The same recruitment system used last summer didn’t have anyone questioning it but this season because it’s gone wrong there’s questions.

There would be a thread about it if we were sitting 12th in the table right now.

Someone might aswell make a thread about players with puma boots, Kompany sponsored by puma and we have 5 or 6 with puma boots, conflict of interest

Just take a step back a minute. The conflict of interest is clear, I’m not sure how that can be contended. As I said previously, whether or not Kompany is actually pursuing his own interest to the detriment of the club’s is unknown. Like I say, he seems an honest bloke and I trust him.

Whether or not there would be a thread on this if we were 12th in the PL is just irrelevant. Mainly because our league position doesn’t have any impact on this conflict, and also because we’re not 12th. But obviously this will be questioned more when the club are failing to hit what most fans would consider to be its primary objective, and it may lead to some people questioning whether the owners and manager have the same objective as the fans.

As for how persisting with an out of form player could earn Kompany a commission - I haven’t actually claimed this - but a manager who stands to gain from making a profit on a player like Amdouni, for example, may be inclined to persist with him ahead of someone like Rodriguez in the hope that he hits a bit of form and increases in value. It’s hardly rocket science. Again, I’m not saying that this is the case, but it will be questioned, and obviously more so when the team is underperforming and the team selections are questionable.

[CoolClaret]

How does persisting with an out of form player help earn kompany commission. Just find it strange for anyone to suggest that any signing made wasn’t made for the best interests of Burnley. The same recruitment system used last summer didn’t have anyone questioning it but this season because it’s gone wrong there’s questions.

There would be a thread about it if we were sitting 12th in the table right now.

Someone might aswell make a thread about players with puma boots, Kompany sponsored by puma and we have 5 or 6 with puma boots, conflict of interest

Some are saying that the full implementation of using MUD came the summer just gone...

Yeah but we aren't sitting 12th and as always, when I found (and others) found out about it aired our grievances, to be met with the same sort of rebuttals - and that wasn't when we were doing this poorly!

Boots/boot sponsorship and things of that nature are entirely different - that's the dictionary definition of a strawman argument.

[123EasyasBFC]

Just take a step back a minute. The conflict of interest is clear, I’m not sure how that can be contended. As I said previously, whether or not Kompany is actually pursuing his own interest to the detriment of the club’s is unknown. Like I say, he seems an honest bloke and I trust him.

Whether or not there would be a thread on this if we were 12th in the PL is just irrelevant. Mainly because our league position doesn’t have any impact on this conflict, and also because we’re not 12th. But obviously this will be questioned more when the club are failing to hit what most fans would consider to be its primary objective, and it may lead to some people questioning whether the owners and manager have the same objective as the fans.

As for how persisting with an out of form player could earn Kompany a commission - I haven’t actually claimed this - but a manager who stands to gain from making a profit on a player like Amdouni, for example, may be inclined to persist with him ahead of someone like Rodriguez in the hope that he hits a bit of form and increases in value. It’s hardly rocket science. Again, I’m not saying that this is the case, but it will be questioned, and obviously more so when the team is underperforming and the team selections are questionable.

League position is completely relevant, the threads to ‘suggest’ kompany could be gaining financially from signings are only coming to light due to our poor performance on the pitch.

Had we won 2-0 at the weekend and sitting on 31 points like Bournemouth are there wouldn’t be a thread about the way the recruitment is being done and who’s company it is and if players are being housed in houses kompany owns, that’s the point I’m making.

Not saying you personally think kompany is gaining financially

[Boss Hogg]

Did MUD convince Alan to pay £60 million for Tresor, Trafford, Ramsey and Amdouni ? If they were free transfers they’d have been a major disappointment.

[123EasyasBFC]

Some are saying that the full implementation of using MUD came the summer just gone...

Yeah but we aren't sitting 12th and as always, when I found (and others) found out about it aired our grievances, to be met with the same sort of rebuttals - and that wasn't when we were doing this poorly!

Boots/boot sponsorship and things of that nature are entirely different - that's the dictionary definition of a strawman argument.

‘Some are saying’ without anything to back it up.

It’s fair to mention league position because as I have just said there would be no talk about any of this if things were going well

[Rileybobs]

League position is completely relevant, the threads to ‘suggest’ kompany could be gaining financially from signings are only coming to light due to our poor performance on the pitch.

Had we won 2-0 at the weekend and sitting on 31 points like Bournemouth are there wouldn’t be a thread about the way the recruitment is being done and who’s company it is and if players are being housed in houses kompany owns, that’s the point I’m making.

Not saying you personally think kompany is gaining financially

But it doesn’t make a difference if there would be a thread or not. Having a thread on here has absolutely no impact on the situation. It’s like saying that people are only talking about a movie being good because the Oscars are on tv.

[CoolClaret]

‘Some are saying’ without anything to back it up.

It’s fair to mention league position because as I have just said there would be no talk about any of this if things were going well

But they aren't, in fact, it's not just 'not going well', it's actually completely failing.

So then you can either discuss the apparent issue or not.

"No one would've mentioned the Titanic's disastrous mechanical structure if it wouldn't have hit an iceberg on it's maiden voyage".

No they wouldn't - but no doubt with a poor structure then eventually the inherent flaws would have made themselves apparent.

[aggi]

Here’s a thought…

We’re going down. So are Sheffield United and barring any points deductions saving them, so are Luton.

Let’s assume they don’t use any data analysis in their recruitment.

I’m left wondering, as a fan, which of those three clubs would I be more excited about watching next year?

Burnley with an analytics system that’s brought us Foster, Benson, Zaroury, Tella, Maatsen, Koleosho, Odobert, Assingnon, Esteve, Beyer, etc, etc… or Luton & Sheffield United?

Theres not even a question in it for me.

This is bizarre.

[123EasyasBFC]

But it doesn’t make a difference if there would be a thread or not. Having a thread on here has absolutely no impact on the situation. It’s like saying that people are only talking about a movie being good because the Oscars are on tv.

It does make a difference I don’t see how you can’t see that it only doesn’t sit right with people the ‘supposed’ recruitment system because it’s failed, nobody at all would be talking about it had it gone well, it’s as simple as that really.

It’s like people on another thread now questioning Alan pace is dress code in directors box, it didn’t bother anyone last season when everything was going well

[123EasyasBFC]

But they aren't, in fact, it's not just 'not going well', it's actually completely failing.

So then you can either discuss the apparent issue or not.

"No one would've mentioned the Titanic's disastrous mechanical structure if it wouldn't have hit an iceberg on it's maiden voyage".

No they wouldn't - but no doubt with a poor structure then eventually the inherent flaws would have made themselves apparent.

We have failed this season but now because it’s failing people have an issue that it might be a company owned by kompany, we don’t know that it’s true.

You have just agreed that had it not failed this season nobody would have discussed it which is a point I was making

[Rileybobs]

It does make a difference I don’t see how you can’t see that it only doesn’t sit right with people the ‘supposed’ recruitment system because it’s failed, nobody at all would be talking about it had it gone well, it’s as simple as that really.

It’s like people on another thread now questioning Alan pace is dress code in directors box, it didn’t bother anyone last season when everything was going well

The situation wouldn’t sit right with me whether we were doing well or not.

[CoolClaret]

We have failed this season but now because it’s failing people have an issue that it might be a company owned by kompany, we don’t know that it’s true.

You have just agreed that had it not failed this season nobody would have discussed it which is a point I was making

No, I didn't agree to that. I actually said (and as RileyBobs has just said) that I thought it was 'wrong' when I first heard about it, which I believe was around Octoberish time?

It's just not what clubs do - sometimes innovation and novel ideas are great... other times it's peak Dunning-Kruger; in this instance I think it's the latter.