Mud analytics

[forzagranata]

It’s pretty obvious really. Not sure why some people are ignoring it. I’m not saying that this is what Kompany is actually doing but the above example illustrates a clear conflict of interest.

There are obviously several issues that would emerge from even a basic analysis of potential conflicts of interests.

There is also the question of what happens to the relationship between the club and MUD when the manager leaves?

[quoonbeatz]

It'll be cold, so cold.

[CrosspoolClarets]

There are obviously several issues that would emerge from even a basic analysis of potential conflicts of interests.

There is also the question of what happens to the relationship between the club and MUD when the manager leaves?

Apart from that situation being clear as mud (sorry), I see it as an advantage.

In the Championship how many teams have high end data analysis, for (presumably) game management as well as recruitment? Not high end I’d suggest. Mooney seems to have a lot of skill in data analytics, business intelligence etc (a field I know well but not in football) and he seems to also have top connections and a solid background.

So I see it as a major advantage. We can view Kompany’s involvement, for those who choose to see it this way, as a package deal, so we are not just buying him, we buy the whole package. That could be hugely advantageous. They’ve done some things right and some wrong as I see it. The data from May onwards seems to have prioritised age, pace and dribbling ability. That’s good, but we all think we needed other things too. But I can see what they were trying to do.

Ok, the risk is clear, which is that he turns out to be a naff manager and we feel tied into him or lose Mud after a falling out. But in the scheme of things the latter isn’t a big deal, subcontracted analytics can easily be replaced, whereas the former, well, let’s see what next season brings. Mud could be rubbish of course, but the background feels solid so I doubt it, a competitive field though.

As for more subtle conflicts, I don’t see it. Every manager has their favourites and “go to” transfer sources, friendships with agents etc. More wild speculation and panic on this thread than any for weeks, which is saying something on here.

[boyyanno]

Hard to explain his treatment of Muric, Benson, Zaroury, Tresor, Ramsey, Massengo, etc etc - all of whom were presumably acquired using this method - while playing the likes of Brownhill over Cullen, Charlie when fit all season, starting Roberts over Vitinho early season, JBG over a number of his signings this year and last, etc. Tony also corrected me on how many times he played Cork and Barnes played last season too, when he had Foster benched and Obafemi available.

I think he just picks who he thinks is most likely to win him games, which is the only way he’ll build his reputation and develop his career. If he does that he stands to earn way more as an elite coach than some hypothetical commission ever would.

It’s crazy to think he’d detriment his whole career, reputation and earning potential for some for some recruitment company he’s probably a minority holder in.

I think the point here is more about conflicts of interest in general. No one is saying Kompany has or will ever do this, however there is potentially an outside factor that could input some bias in to decision making. I think it's fair to say that people can be influenced/biased without even realising it. I doubt Kompany would ever say he would play player X to make his business extra funds or make that decision consciously, but I think it's possible that someone in his position could have a natural affinity towards players that are recruited through that method and be biased that way- just as an example but there are other ways too. Obviously no one is saying that is happening either- just trying to explain why generally conflicts of interest aren't somthing you'd want.

I think it's also important to note that it's not just a few posters on a messageboard that find them concerning, most businesses will have policies and rules around them which show they are generally a cause for concern. I think the most sensible response here is that Alan Pace is aware of it and will have likely mitigated as much risk as possible, both in terms of what happens if we part ways and in terms of preventing anything nefarious happening. But as per my example above I think some bias could still exist in different ways which is why I still personally find it a slight concern.

There's wider points about how it feeds in to the club recruitment strategy etc, but to some extent I think it's fair to say that if the club do well and profit then I've not too much problem with people being rewarded for the work they put in. It's just generally the position Kompany is in and the conflict of interest that really concerns me.

[boatshed bill]

Remind us which English, PL keeper got relegated, sold for a huge profit, then got relegated again and sold for even more money

Tresor was highly rated before he came to us, he will still be highly rated by some in the game who’ll look past this season

Ramsey - still only 21, has played just 525 mins of PL football this season and is now out injured
He will get better but he’s been playing in a team that’s collectively struggling

I'm not arguing with you, merely pointing out the obvious : the 3 most expensive transfers in have, to date, been seen by many as a mistake.

[Superjohnnyfrancis]

So let me get this right

All last seasons bargains were brought in via IST analytics

This seasons extravagant buys were brought in via MUD?

Is that right?

If so looks like we need to go back to last years methods.

[Chester Perry]

So let me get this right

All last seasons bargains were brought in via IST analytics

This seasons extravagant buys were brought in via MUD?

Is that right?

If so looks like we need to go back to last years methods.

No

[Superjohnnyfrancis]

No

Manager scouted them?

[boyyanno]

So let me get this right

All last seasons bargains were brought in via IST analytics

This seasons extravagant buys were brought in via MUD?

Is that right?

If so looks like we need to go back to last years methods.

No I don't think that's true. MTB would seem to evidence that a connection existed well before that date.

[Chester Perry]

I believe (as with most things that people get wound up about) that it is more complicated than has been portrayed here.

In football most clubs (who can afford it), bring in data (and models from multiple suppliers and either apply their own models on to it and/or employ agencies to look at specific objectives. These practices are widely known and there are plenty of boutique/specialist players in this market place.

It has been reported that over the time Kompany has been here that the scouting operation has been cut back in preference to trusting the data more - that would indicate there has been a growing confidence in how the analysts have been using the data and the resulting performance gained from the application of the analysts findings. It is easy to see how that belief was garnered last season, this season less so.

Over the last few days there have been suggestions in some parts of the media (certainly they are not often reliable ones) that the hierarchy at the club believe that the problem this season is down to the quality of the signings, but that they do not believe it is as a result of Kompany's efforts.

In this thread those statements would appear to be something of a contradiction, but it would appear that Kompany's business interests are and have not been that widely known.

What we do know is that Pace had been willing to let Kompany have his way, the hierarchy at the club still appear enthralled with him and that appears to not be changing anytime soon. All of which is actually fine if learning from mistakes is applied and the the systems are refined, we just hope that that is the case, though there has appeared to be little evidence on the pitch for most of the season.

[spt_claret]

Cracking post Chester.
Moving away from a hybrid model to datacentric would go some way to explaining the change in outcomes.

[forzagranata]

There is some insight into VK"s business partner in MUD Lee Mooney's approach in this article where he looks at a Belgian club

https://trainingground.guru/articles/le ... ridiculous

This, in particular stands out:

“Let’s say you’ve put €100m in, have €100m of annual costs, how much of that annual cost is on the field? Low levels of utilisation are generally an indicator of something being wrong - you’ve overpaid for a player, you’ve over-valued them, you’ve put too much money down on a guy that’s not robust, so they’re not on the field enough, you’ve made a tactical change or switched something that makes players redundant."

[Chester Perry]

There is some insight into VK"s business partner in MUD Lee Mooney's approach in this article where he looks at a Belgian club

https://trainingground.guru/articles/le ... ridiculous

This, in particular stands out:

“Let’s say you’ve put €100m in, have €100m of annual costs, how much of that annual cost is on the field? Low levels of utilisation are generally an indicator of something being wrong - you’ve overpaid for a player, you’ve over-valued them, you’ve put too much money down on a guy that’s not robust, so they’re not on the field enough, you’ve made a tactical change or switched something that makes players redundant."

It does Simon, and it highlights an issue that many are reluctant to discuss, the club has not been that successful at selling players for a while now, part of that can be put on Dyche blocking sales when, hindsight, tells us they were at optimal value, part down to keeping players until their contracts ran out part of that is down to recruitment. The new ownership have signed many more players than were signed in the equivalent period before them, but in reality have only sold 2 and for little actual profit when all the costs have been deducted, leaving us with a sizeable number of players for whom we are still paying wages and transfer fee instalments but who are seemingly not wanted by the manager. In Mooney language, the utilisation of all these signings has been poor.

This sign, have a close up view, followed by a discarding of players is a trend that most believe started with big spending clubs, that were demanding instant success and with coaches like Mourinho (Though we should argue that people like Barry Fry and Harry Redknapp had been doing it for years before). Clubs like ours need a more precise approach to establish a core of a team and develop that/ What we have witnessed thus far, and i think we will see again in the summer is that Kompany will want wholesale changes again.

[forzagranata]

I would certainly expect a mass clear-out - whether it is a necessity for financial reasons or not.

It's going to be very interesting to see if ALK are ready and willing to go through a third straight summer of mass player trading and acquisition.

I would add another metric into Mooney's analysis - the amount of players of first team level that you loan out. Loans, of course, can be a useful way of giving experience to young players but when you have loans of players like Weghorst and Bastian, even perhaps Twine, Zaroury and McNally, these are basically players out of the door that you aren't able to sell for the money you'd like to receive.

[Chester Perry]

I would certainly expect a mass clear-out - whether it is a necessity for financial reasons or not.

It's going to be very interesting to see if ALK are ready and willing to go through a third straight summer of mass player trading and acquisition.

I would add another metric into Mooney's analysis - the amount of players of first team level that you loan out. Loans, of course, can be a useful way of giving experience to young players but when you have loans of players like Weghorst and Bastian, even perhaps Twine, Zaroury and McNally, these are basically players out of the door that you aren't able to sell for the money you'd like to receive.

FIFA regulations step in there - I think the number of such squad players a club is allowed to loan out reduces again next season

[forzagranata]

Yeah - point more is that there is a difference between loans for development (such as those we see with Dundee etc) and loans because we can't sell them and want part of their salary off the pay roll. The former can be an intelligent way to give young players experience, the latter is a sign of problems with your recruitment.

[Chester Perry]

Yeah - point more is that there is a difference between loans for development (such as those we see with Dundee etc) and loans because we can't sell them and want part of their salary off the pay roll. The former can be an intelligent way to give young players experience, the latter is a sign of problems with your recruitment.

only if, you are recruiting to build a team rather than a farming operation. Of course, is made more complex if you are yo-yoing.

[NewClaret]

FIFA regulations step in there - I think the number of such squad players a club is allowed to loan out reduces again next season

What are they now and what are they reducing to out of interest?

[Chester Perry]

7 to 6 from the summer

https://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/organis ... egulations

[NewClaret]

only if, you are recruiting to build a team rather than a farming operation. Of course, is made more complex if you are yo-yoing.

It’s highly more complex if you are yo-yoing…

I think fans look at our squad and think it’s hugely unbalanced. I look at it as two squads: one built for the Championship (which still largely exists and is the cause of our surplus) and one much smaller group bought for the Premier League at relative low cost compared to the £20m+ players most Prem first XI’s have in every position on the pitch/bench.

It’s imbalanced because signing 11 or 15 Premier League players in one summer on our budget was just infeasible, or the players weren’t available that we had identified/wanted. Probably the former, maybe a bit of the latter too.

…but in principle I highly support having a number of players in our squad that we loan to Championship teams. I think it’s a very good strategy, especially for a yo-yo club or a club at risk of relegation (which we always will be in the Premier League).

I’ve said this before but I view a squad as:

11 first team +
9 match day squad, pushing for the first team +
5 development players, 3rd keeper, etc

If you work on the basis whenever we get relegated we’d lose minimum 5 first teamers, I think having an equal number to bring back in to the squad/team with good experience at that level without spending anything at all is a very good strategy and leadership.

Obviously the objective with any such players signed is that they all have the potential to be in your team/Matchday squad eventually, not ‘just in case’.

I’m not saying that is the strategy we’re adopting, far more likely it’s just a circumstance of transition, but it’d be what I’d be doing to safeguard the club if I were leading it.

Far better that approach than a massive ‘dry powder store’ on the basis were a football club not a bank.

[123EasyasBFC]

7 to 6 from the summer

https://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/organis ... egulations

Is that rule not for international loans because don’t we have more than 7 senior players out on loan at the moment

Peacock-Farrell
Roberts
McNally
Egan-Riley
Bastien
Twine
Zaroury
Obafemi
Weghorst

[Chester Perry]

Is that rule not for international loans because don’t we have more than 7 senior players out on loan at the moment

Peacock-Farrell
Roberts
McNally
Egan-Riley
Bastien
Twine
Zaroury
Obafemi
Weghorst

Egan Riley is classed as an U21 this season

[123EasyasBFC]

Egan Riley is classed as an U21 this season

Without Egan-Riley it would still be 8 first team players out on loan

[Chester Perry]

Without Egan-Riley it would still be 8 first team players out on loan

That leaves two options

- one of the other loans is now classed as a a sale

or

- the FIFA rule is just for outfield players only - so goalkeepers do not count