Dyche’s Fine Margins

[houseboy]

After the Brentford result I got to thinking about the last three games and although you can’t play ifs and buts too much I started to think about Dyche’s oft quoted ‘fine margins’. Last week at West Ham but for yet another late equaliser we should have won. Despite the defeat to Bournemouth we had a very high percentage possession, 12 shots on goal and their keeper was man of the match. But for those ‘fine margins’ the 4 points from the last three games could easily have been nine. If you factor in the two ridiculous VAR decisions (Forest and Luton) and we could easily have 13 more points than we have and if we had we would not have been worrying about anything. There have been a number of other late equalisers as well.
All this doesn’t make our situation any better of course but it does show that Dyche’s fine margins can make a world of difference. Just a thought.

[mdd2]

If my auntie "had", she would have been my uncle!

[what_no_pies]

I think we're allowed to say 'balls' on here.

[Rileybobs]

Those fine margins are often dictated by quality in each box, and even with all the stars aligning yesterday we could have thrown the points away with some really wasteful finishing and defensive errors.

[NewClaret]

The truth is, we’ve not been as bad as a lot on here have been making out.

Also we weren’t that good yesterday. We played a team with 10 men for 90 minutes and made hard work of it.

I agree in a lot of the games we’ve been on the wrong side of the luck and I also think our opening fixtures were brutal, just not allowing us to carry forward any of last seasons momentum. Not to mention VAR decisions and injuries. I don’t think we’re any worse than that pack just above the relegation zone now.

I’ve seen improvements in us and I think we’ve been looking like a premier league team for a while (maybe Villa away) just not quite good enough to create more of our own luck and get on the right side of the margins. But enough to convince me that we’ll be better for this year and fine next season in the championship.

[houseboy]

If my auntie "had", she would have been my uncle!

I was waiting for someone to post this...just didn’t expect it so early.

[Goliath]

The truth is, we’ve not been as bad as a lot on here have been making out.

Also we weren’t that good yesterday. We played a team with 10 men for 90 minutes and made hard work of it.

I agree in a lot of the games we’ve been on the wrong side of the luck and I also think our opening fixtures were brutal, just not allowing us to carry forward any of last seasons momentum. Not to mention VAR decisions and injuries. I don’t think we’re any worse than that pack just above the relegation zone now.

I’ve seen improvements in us and I think we’ve been looking like a premier league team for a while (maybe Villa away) just not quite good enough to create more of our own luck and get on the right side of the margins. But enough to convince me that we’ll be better for this year and fine next season in the championship.

Its hard to judge yesterdays performance. I think theres a good chance wed have looked bettwr if theyd had 11.
The psychology of the game completely changes at 1 0 against 10 and we suddenly become big favourites which was an unwanted pressure for a team thats won once at home all season

[IanMcL]

We had a lot of possession owing to their 10 men, however, our goal came when we broke after Vitinho interception in our box.

Passing about didn't get us far. We missed all our chances. Breaking fast is what we xan do at times.

[CoolClaret]

We had a lot of possession owing to their 10 men, however, our goal came when we broke after Vitinho interception in our box.

Passing about didn't get us far. We missed all our chances. Breaking fast is what we xan do at times.

Even last season I thought we were at our best when we countered at pace.

A lot of the tactic this season with slowing the game down and trying to draw a press etc has been to our detriment, imo.

[daveisaclaret]

Dyche's "fine margins" was just an excuse for when the team wasn't very good. Quite an apt comparison for this season in that regard.

[spt_claret]

If you narrowly drop/gain points in 1 or 2 games, it's fine margins and you're either a tad unlucky or tad lucky.
Same with officials- 1 or 2 is unlucky.
If you get a lot of bad refereeing decisions against you, it's reasonable to believe you're being hard done by, not just the unlucky victim of accidental incompetence.
Same token, if you miss out or eke it out multiple times on fine margins, that's not luck that's a team that's either flawed & fragile, or resilient.

I think we've been hard done by by referees, maybe not as badly as a few years under Dyche but there's definitely been a lot more bad calls against us than for us, and 50-50s rarely go our way. But I don't think consistently inconsistent officals wipe out enough of our weak jaw problems to just attribute the season to fine margins/bad luck as there's still plenty more examples.

Yesterday we still had a lot of the same weaknesses we've had all season, got the result, even though I have Muric as MOTM I don't think we necessarily won it because of him if that makes sense- I think we had a turn of luck, because we've had a LOT of fine margins where we've dropped points. More likely we're a flawed team who got lucky, than a consistently unlucky team who magically clicked now. Hope that it is the latter, mind.

[IanMcL]

The weaknesses were still apparent. Nature of how we play.

[KRBFC]

Var at Forest for Berge goal -2
JBG missed open net home to Liverpool -1
West Ham home two late goals -3
Luton home late goal -2
West Ham away late goal -2
Villa away late pen -1
Bournemouth away late handball (should of had a pen) -1


Those are just a few off the top of my head

[jrgbfc]

Every club will have a few they can point to. Wolves have had some shocking VAR decisions go against them, even Liverpool had a perfectly good goal chalked off due to incompetence of the officials.

[Stayingup]

A lot of the 'lost' points have been down to lack of experience, on the pitch and off it. Notwithstanding some marginal decisions going against us.

[Rileybobs]

Var at Forest for Berge goal -2
JBG missed open net home to Liverpool -1
West Ham home two late goals -3
Luton home late goal -2
West Ham away late goal -2
Villa away late pen -1
Bournemouth away late handball (should of had a pen) -1


Those are just a few off the top of my head

Luton away - late goal +2
Fulham home - 2 late goals +1
West Ham away - potential late penalty +1
Brentford home - potential penalty +2

Just to add some balance.

[Boss Hogg]

Forest away and West Ham at home were unlucky results. This season’s disaster isn’t down to fine margins though. At a lot of the results under Dyche were as we were in a lot of games with narrow score lines for a lot of his time here.

[Conroy92]

Personally I find it hard to say this season has been fine margins. For the bulk of it we've looked miles away. In terms of expectations, at the start of the season there was a large group who thought we could confidently survive, even the ones who had us as relegation material wouldnt have backed us to be this uncompetitive.

The fact that yesterday is the first league game that Muric and Cullen have started together is not a fine margin either.

Personally I don't think we've lost this season on the pitch, we lost it in the boardroom with the decision to put all our eggs into the potential basket and through extreme naivety of the management team and consistently poor selections ala Muric.
The side has had no identity all season.

We got it wrong from top to bottom this season for me and it's not a fine margin and not the result of decisions from referees or players on the field.

[KRBFC]

Brighton away conceded late -2
Liverpool away 3 sitters at 1-2 -1
Wolves away who knows what happens if Rodriguez sticks that easy chance away and we go 1 up.