Relegation Run-In

[Goody1975]

Hopefully this doesn't breach rules about listing fixtures, please delete if it does.

Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams who I feel have any chance of being relegated. I think Palace are already safe.

It would be almost certain that the bottom three would go down, if there wasn't still the possibility of points deductions for Forest and Everton.

The next couple of weeks are critical for Forest, not only the hearing but two very winnable home games coming up. If things don't go their way both on and off the field they may be in serious trouble. Luton have three horrific fixtures in their next four games but then have an easier finish to the season.

Relegation Run In.png (41.06 KiB) Viewed 7163 times

[Goddy]

Assuming Forest get a 4 point FFP penalty, 30 points will be enough to stay up.

Have we got enough to get 13 points.....4 wins and a draw.....I doubt it but you never know......

[boatshed bill]

Assuming Forest get a 4 point FFP penalty, 30 points will be enough to stay up.

Have we got enough to get 13 points.....4 wins and a draw.....I doubt it but you never know......

What if Luton get 9?

[Goody1975]

The talk on X is that Forest get 4-6 points and Everton get 2 based on double jeopardy rules.

If that is the case then Forest could easily be at status quo after their next two fixtures.

[mybloodisclaret]

What a pointless toothless exercise FFP is Everton get slammed..... then get it reduced. Get done with the same thing again and get less punishment because they have been done with it before.

[Jakubclaret]

Palace probably are on 28/29 I think can't be arsed looking but play forest next if forest beat them & the others pick good results up they might start looking over their shoulder. It's that last spot which is really up for contention from a palace perspective with a gap bridge elsewhere.

[LincsWoldsClaret]

Nobody has any idea of the rules anymore. It’s no longer obvious what’s right and what’s wrong. VAR has ruined this and the points deduction puts bureaucrats totally in command of who stays up and who goes down. The best we can hope for is commitment and good luck

[jedi_master]

Permutations are pointless unless this team can somehow show it has the cajones to put a big side to bed. We have to beat at least one of Chelsea, United, Newcastle or Spurs to have a hope I think. We have bent over and taken it against the best sides (a few exceptions, we were great against United and somehow conspired to lose) in the main but that simply has to change to be anywhere close to pulling off the unthinkable.

The belief that would course through the team and fanbase if we won at Chelsea would be cosmic.

[Goddy]

What if Luton get 9?

Just my personal opinion.....I don't think they will. I dont think theyll get more than u points from

Mind you, I don't, realistically , see us getting 13 points from here either tbh but you never know......well, maybe you do....

[jlup1980]

What a pointless toothless exercise FFP is Everton get slammed..... then get it reduced. Get done with the same thing again and get less punishment because they have been done with it before.

They're making decisions based on the future. They know City and Chelsea have to be dealt with yet. If they slam Everton and Forest it sets a precedent. In reality, if we take the City case, we should be looking at a Rangers or Juventus situation. However, this is the Premier League, they will look after the status quo.

[Goddy]

Just my personal opinion.....I don't think they will. I dont think theyll get more than u points from

Mind you, I don't, realistically , see us getting 13 points from here either tbh but you never know......well, maybe you do....

Fat fingers - sorry......

I don't see Luton getting any more than 7 points from here......

[aggi]

The magic numbers spreadsheet has an average position of opponets left to play (and the next 4):

Screenshot 2024-03-18 100007.jpg (137.69 KiB) Viewed 5588 times

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[ClaretAL]

Hopefully this doesn't breach rules about listing fixtures, please delete if it does.

Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams who I feel have any chance of being relegated. I think Palace are already safe.

It would be almost certain that the bottom three would go down, if there wasn't still the possibility of points deductions for Forest and Everton.

The next couple of weeks are critical for Forest, not only the hearing but two very winnable home games coming up. If things don't go their way both on and off the field they may be in serious trouble. Luton have three horrific fixtures in their next four games but then have an easier finish to the season.


Relegation Run In.png

Top work GoodyI hope you don’t mind but sent the chart to Turfcast to discuss tonight. I did credit to your work.

[South West Claret.]

Hopefully this doesn't breach rules about listing fixtures, please delete if it does.

Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams who I feel have any chance of being relegated. I think Palace are already safe.

It would be almost certain that the bottom three would go down, if there wasn't still the possibility of points deductions for Forest and Everton.

The next couple of weeks are critical for Forest, not only the hearing but two very winnable home games coming up. If things don't go their way both on and off the field they may be in serious trouble. Luton have three horrific fixtures in their next four games but then have an easier finish to the season.


Relegation Run In.png

Some interesting fixtures for all the relegation candidates so much the same for all in the dog fight to stay up.

[Wokingclaret]

Everton won some games following the deduction, it may happen to Forest

[Goody1975]

Top work GoodyI hope you don’t mind but sent the chart to Turfcast to discuss tonight. I did credit to your work.

No problem whatsoever.

[Darnhill Claret]

I think that Everton and their final fixtures hold the key, which I think is quite ironic.

AWAY to Bournemouth, already on the beach, I believe, but might get themselves up for this 'final' game. Only just managed to do it against Luton.

AWAY to Newcastle, trying to get that final Euro qualifying spot and maybe with owners to placate.

HOME to BURNLEY. No comments required.

AWAY to Chelsea. Poch under pressure to deliver results until the end of the season.

HOME to Forest. 50-50

HOME to Brentford. Same

AWAY to Luton. Same.

HOME to Sheff U. Possibly/Probably relegated by then. No pressure. Everton's last seemingly 'easier game'.

AWAY to Arsenal, final game of the season and hopefully Arsenal will still need the points, or they might be on the beach.

HOME to Liverpool, still to be arranged. Klopp's final Derby game.

An interesting set of fixtures.

[Hibsclaret]

The key questions are can we get 6 more points than Luton and 5 more than Forest. Definitely in our own hands which is what you want and beating Forest would mean actually only 2 points more than them is needed from the other matches.

Definitely doable and I think the next 3 are absolutely crucial. A win in the Wolves game would be most welcome and add the pressure to everyone else.

[The Shire Claret]

I think if we pull off a win at Chelsea ... and that's a very big if.... and beat Wolves ..... we are back in with a shout

[AfloatinClaret]

The talk on X is that Forest get 4-6 points and Everton get 2 based on double jeopardy rules.

So Everton's FFP breach penalty will be set lower because they've incurred one before; on that basis Everton can presumably now spend what they like as their next breach would incur a 0 points deduction and the one after that a two point addition.

[Goliath]

I dont see Everton getting relegated. A revved up Dyche team with Goodison behind them will hurt a few teams im sure.

[ElectroClaret]

I too think Everton will survive. They also have a game in hand on most around them.
Three from us, Sheff U, Luton, Forest and Brentford is how i see it.

[Darnhill Claret]

With the pressure ramping up I don't see Everton winning 5 games.

[CoolClaret]

Forest is a must win game at the end of the season - definition of a six pointer.

If we can beat them and somehow muster 13+ points from here on out then we've at least given ourselves a fighting chance.

Beating Everton would also be ideal.

[ClaretAL]

If we beat Everton, that puts us within 5 of them, or 2 wins more than they get between now and the end of the season. Our fixtures look more favourable... Everton is a proverbial 6 pointer as much as Forrest is.

[CrosspoolClarets]

So Everton's FFP breach penalty will be set lower because they've incurred one before; on that basis Everton can presumably now spend what they like as their next breach would incur a 0 points deduction and the one after that a two point addition.

That logic would certainly mirror Everton fan’s sense of entitlement

[CrosspoolClarets]

I hadn’t realised that while we play Forest, Liverpool will play Everton and could beat them at Goodison to win the league and relegate Everton at the same time. That would probably make it the best day in the club’s history, makes our achievement at Deadwood look second rate.

It would also be very, very funny, even if I can’t see it happening.

[Darnhill Claret]

No, Everton's final game is Arsenal. Game against Liverpool, date still to be confirmed.

[Mansfield claret]

Forest is a must win game at the end of the season - definition of a six pointer.

If we can beat them and somehow muster 13+ points from here on out then we've at least given ourselves a fighting chance.

Beating Everton would also be ideal.

I hope the forest game is a must win one

[ElectroClaret]

I hope the forest game is a must win one

Yeah, might be all over by then, hope not.

[Darnhill Claret]

I hope it is a must not lose game.

[Goody1975]

Updated table to include the Forest points deduction, although that is not yet rubber stamped with asterisk to show this.

Relegation Run In.png (41.18 KiB) Viewed 4186 times

[Goody1975]

I'll update and post the modified chart after the Brentford vs Manchester United game this evening.

It will also have the games that have be rearranged for Sheffield United and Everton in it (Gameweek 34)

[Neil]

Nasty little run between sheff utd and forest.

[Goody1975]

Updated fixtures

It's extremely unlikely that Brentford are involved in the bottom three at the end of the season, but I'll leave them in the list for the time being.


A big two or three weeks coming up for all the sides, especially if Everton get a further points deduction to drag them towards the relegation zone.

Relegation Run In 30th March 2024.png (42.24 KiB) Viewed 2969 times

[alboclaret]

Luton look to have a real chance with their last 4 games.

[ClaretAL]

Cheers Goody. I have sent to Turfcast and credited your hard work mate

[Goody1975]

Cheers Goody. I have sent to Turfcast and credited your hard work mate

No worries, glad it's of use.

[Firthy]

We have the easier games left but probably too late to keep us up. If Muric had been given a chance sooner and the shocking VAR decisions against us had been correct then I think we'd have been virtually safe by now.

Drawing away to West Ham and Chelsea and beating Brentford in our last 3 games is not relegation form.

[Goody1975]

We have the easier games left but probably too late to keep us up. If Muric had been given a chance sooner and the shocking VAR decisions against us had been correct then I think we'd have been virtually safe by now.

Drawing away to West Ham and Chelsea and beating Brentford in our last 3 games is not relegation form.

We really need to win on Tuesday, there is a fair chance that Forest win at home to Fulham and we can't let that gap grow any bigger. If the results go the way they should on paper for Sheffield United, Luton and Everton then we give ourselves a real chance.

[Zom Zom]

We really need to win on Tuesday, there is a fair chance that Forest win at home to Fulham and we can't let that gap grow any bigger. If the results go the way they should on paper for Sheffield United, Luton and Everton then we give ourselves a real chance.

It really could get the juices flowing if we could beat Wolves, and if other results are kind there will be some sweating and worried glances from Nottingham and Merseyside.

Fingers crossed we do our part at the very least.

[Goody1975]

Assuming this is now a three horse race for the final spot in the safety zone, then the table has been adjusted to just show ourselves, Luton and Forest.

Relegation Fixtures 24th Apr 2024.png (21.88 KiB) Viewed 1395 times

[Goliath]

It's a big ask. We have the worst fixtures and the least points. Not exactly the combination you'd want at this stage.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Not looking good, but Luton have a huge chance (good luck to them) and if we can pick up a miracle win from somewhere we could suddenly be favourites to stay up. Forest have the hardest games, Luton the easiest.

[distortiondave]

Would you swap fixtures with forest? I think we'd all swap fixtures with Luton!
Assuming they get 3 points from Sheffield United and lose the other two, we'd need to get 4 points from Man Utd, Newcastle and Spurs to ensure a last day win keeps us up. Sounds doable, but would you prefer the Man City defeat - Sheffield United victory - chelsea wildcard route?

[Goody1975]

An alternative table with the current league position of the opposition.

Relegation Run In Fixtures with Positions.png (18.17 KiB) Viewed 1201 times

[CrosspoolClarets]

Good work these tables, but the reality remains that we have two winnable games at home, but tough away, while Forest have two winnable games away but tough at home.

I’d have our fixtures over theirs.

But their 3 point and goal difference gap is a problem, thanks to Darren England.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Would you swap fixtures with forest? I think we'd all swap fixtures with Luton!
Assuming they get 3 points from Sheffield United and lose the other two, we'd need to get 4 points from Man Utd, Newcastle and Spurs to ensure a last day win keeps us up. Sounds doable, but would you prefer the Man City defeat - Sheffield United victory - chelsea wildcard route?

That Forest defence is almost as bad as Sheffields, though they have conceded fewer they look a shambles. Going to the Lane may not be easy for them. Could easily be a draw. I suspect we’ll be a lot clearer in a few days time.

[RammyClaret61]

I can see us getting 6 points. But unfortunately I Forest will get 3 v Sheff U. Our goal difference will be our killer.

[Goody1975]

Forest should lose against City (but we've seen what happened tonight) and then we are relying on them not getting maximum points at Bramall Lane.

The problem is that the door could be left ajar for Luton as well as us.