Relegation Run-In
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Relegation Run-In
Hopefully this doesn't breach rules about listing fixtures, please delete if it does.
Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams who I feel have any chance of being relegated. I think Palace are already safe.
It would be almost certain that the bottom three would go down, if there wasn't still the possibility of points deductions for Forest and Everton.
The next couple of weeks are critical for Forest, not only the hearing but two very winnable home games coming up. If things don't go their way both on and off the field they may be in serious trouble. Luton have three horrific fixtures in their next four games but then have an easier finish to the season.
Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams who I feel have any chance of being relegated. I think Palace are already safe.
It would be almost certain that the bottom three would go down, if there wasn't still the possibility of points deductions for Forest and Everton.
The next couple of weeks are critical for Forest, not only the hearing but two very winnable home games coming up. If things don't go their way both on and off the field they may be in serious trouble. Luton have three horrific fixtures in their next four games but then have an easier finish to the season.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Assuming Forest get a 4 point FFP penalty, 30 points will be enough to stay up.
Have we got enough to get 13 points.....4 wins and a draw.....I doubt it but you never know......
Have we got enough to get 13 points.....4 wins and a draw.....I doubt it but you never know......
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Re: Relegation Run-In
The talk on X is that Forest get 4-6 points and Everton get 2 based on double jeopardy rules.
If that is the case then Forest could easily be at status quo after their next two fixtures.
If that is the case then Forest could easily be at status quo after their next two fixtures.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
What a pointless toothless exercise FFP is Everton get slammed..... then get it reduced. Get done with the same thing again and get less punishment because they have been done with it before.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Palace probably are on 28/29 I think can't be arsed looking but play forest next if forest beat them & the others pick good results up they might start looking over their shoulder. It's that last spot which is really up for contention from a palace perspective with a gap bridge elsewhere.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Nobody has any idea of the rules anymore. It’s no longer obvious what’s right and what’s wrong. VAR has ruined this and the points deduction puts bureaucrats totally in command of who stays up and who goes down. The best we can hope for is commitment and good luck
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Permutations are pointless unless this team can somehow show it has the cajones to put a big side to bed. We have to beat at least one of Chelsea, United, Newcastle or Spurs to have a hope I think. We have bent over and taken it against the best sides (a few exceptions, we were great against United and somehow conspired to lose) in the main but that simply has to change to be anywhere close to pulling off the unthinkable.
The belief that would course through the team and fanbase if we won at Chelsea would be cosmic.
The belief that would course through the team and fanbase if we won at Chelsea would be cosmic.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Just my personal opinion.....I don't think they will. I dont think theyll get more than u points from
Mind you, I don't, realistically , see us getting 13 points from here either tbh but you never know......well, maybe you do....
Re: Relegation Run-In
They're making decisions based on the future. They know City and Chelsea have to be dealt with yet. If they slam Everton and Forest it sets a precedent. In reality, if we take the City case, we should be looking at a Rangers or Juventus situation. However, this is the Premier League, they will look after the status quo.mybloodisclaret wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 9:04 pmWhat a pointless toothless exercise FFP is Everton get slammed..... then get it reduced. Get done with the same thing again and get less punishment because they have been done with it before.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Fat fingers - sorry......
I don't see Luton getting any more than 7 points from here......
Re: Relegation Run-In
The magic numbers spreadsheet has an average position of opponets left to play (and the next 4):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Re: Relegation Run-In
Top work GoodyI hope you don’t mind but sent the chart to Turfcast to discuss tonight. I did credit to your work.Goody1975 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:27 pmHopefully this doesn't breach rules about listing fixtures, please delete if it does.
Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams who I feel have any chance of being relegated. I think Palace are already safe.
It would be almost certain that the bottom three would go down, if there wasn't still the possibility of points deductions for Forest and Everton.
The next couple of weeks are critical for Forest, not only the hearing but two very winnable home games coming up. If things don't go their way both on and off the field they may be in serious trouble. Luton have three horrific fixtures in their next four games but then have an easier finish to the season.
Relegation Run In.png
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Goody1975 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:27 pmHopefully this doesn't breach rules about listing fixtures, please delete if it does.
Here are the remaining fixtures for the teams who I feel have any chance of being relegated. I think Palace are already safe.
It would be almost certain that the bottom three would go down, if there wasn't still the possibility of points deductions for Forest and Everton.
The next couple of weeks are critical for Forest, not only the hearing but two very winnable home games coming up. If things don't go their way both on and off the field they may be in serious trouble. Luton have three horrific fixtures in their next four games but then have an easier finish to the season.
Relegation Run In.png
Some interesting fixtures for all the relegation candidates so much the same for all in the dog fight to stay up.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Everton won some games following the deduction, it may happen to Forest
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Re: Relegation Run-In
I think that Everton and their final fixtures hold the key, which I think is quite ironic.
AWAY to Bournemouth, already on the beach, I believe, but might get themselves up for this 'final' game. Only just managed to do it against Luton.
AWAY to Newcastle, trying to get that final Euro qualifying spot and maybe with owners to placate.
HOME to BURNLEY. No comments required.
AWAY to Chelsea. Poch under pressure to deliver results until the end of the season.
HOME to Forest. 50-50
HOME to Brentford. Same
AWAY to Luton. Same.
HOME to Sheff U. Possibly/Probably relegated by then. No pressure. Everton's last seemingly 'easier game'.
AWAY to Arsenal, final game of the season and hopefully Arsenal will still need the points, or they might be on the beach.
HOME to Liverpool, still to be arranged. Klopp's final Derby game.
An interesting set of fixtures.
AWAY to Bournemouth, already on the beach, I believe, but might get themselves up for this 'final' game. Only just managed to do it against Luton.
AWAY to Newcastle, trying to get that final Euro qualifying spot and maybe with owners to placate.
HOME to BURNLEY. No comments required.
AWAY to Chelsea. Poch under pressure to deliver results until the end of the season.
HOME to Forest. 50-50
HOME to Brentford. Same
AWAY to Luton. Same.
HOME to Sheff U. Possibly/Probably relegated by then. No pressure. Everton's last seemingly 'easier game'.
AWAY to Arsenal, final game of the season and hopefully Arsenal will still need the points, or they might be on the beach.
HOME to Liverpool, still to be arranged. Klopp's final Derby game.
An interesting set of fixtures.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
The key questions are can we get 6 more points than Luton and 5 more than Forest. Definitely in our own hands which is what you want and beating Forest would mean actually only 2 points more than them is needed from the other matches.
Definitely doable and I think the next 3 are absolutely crucial. A win in the Wolves game would be most welcome and add the pressure to everyone else.
Definitely doable and I think the next 3 are absolutely crucial. A win in the Wolves game would be most welcome and add the pressure to everyone else.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
I think if we pull off a win at Chelsea ... and that's a very big if.... and beat Wolves ..... we are back in with a shout
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Re: Relegation Run-In
So Everton's FFP breach penalty will be set lower because they've incurred one before; on that basis Everton can presumably now spend what they like as their next breach would incur a 0 points deduction and the one after that a two point addition.
Re: Relegation Run-In
I dont see Everton getting relegated. A revved up Dyche team with Goodison behind them will hurt a few teams im sure.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
I too think Everton will survive. They also have a game in hand on most around them.
Three from us, Sheff U, Luton, Forest and Brentford is how i see it.
Three from us, Sheff U, Luton, Forest and Brentford is how i see it.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
With the pressure ramping up I don't see Everton winning 5 games.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Forest is a must win game at the end of the season - definition of a six pointer.
If we can beat them and somehow muster 13+ points from here on out then we've at least given ourselves a fighting chance.
Beating Everton would also be ideal.
If we can beat them and somehow muster 13+ points from here on out then we've at least given ourselves a fighting chance.
Beating Everton would also be ideal.
Re: Relegation Run-In
If we beat Everton, that puts us within 5 of them, or 2 wins more than they get between now and the end of the season. Our fixtures look more favourable... Everton is a proverbial 6 pointer as much as Forrest is.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
That logic would certainly mirror Everton fan’s sense of entitlementAfloatinClaret wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2024 3:17 pmSo Everton's FFP breach penalty will be set lower because they've incurred one before; on that basis Everton can presumably now spend what they like as their next breach would incur a 0 points deduction and the one after that a two point addition.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
I hadn’t realised that while we play Forest, Liverpool will play Everton and could beat them at Goodison to win the league and relegate Everton at the same time. That would probably make it the best day in the club’s history, makes our achievement at Deadwood look second rate.
It would also be very, very funny, even if I can’t see it happening.
It would also be very, very funny, even if I can’t see it happening.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
No, Everton's final game is Arsenal. Game against Liverpool, date still to be confirmed.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
I hope the forest game is a must win oneCoolClaret wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2024 4:08 pmForest is a must win game at the end of the season - definition of a six pointer.
If we can beat them and somehow muster 13+ points from here on out then we've at least given ourselves a fighting chance.
Beating Everton would also be ideal.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Yeah, might be all over by then, hope not.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
I hope it is a must not lose game.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Updated table to include the Forest points deduction, although that is not yet rubber stamped with asterisk to show this.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
I'll update and post the modified chart after the Brentford vs Manchester United game this evening.
It will also have the games that have be rearranged for Sheffield United and Everton in it (Gameweek 34)
It will also have the games that have be rearranged for Sheffield United and Everton in it (Gameweek 34)
Re: Relegation Run-In
Nasty little run between sheff utd and forest.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Updated fixtures
It's extremely unlikely that Brentford are involved in the bottom three at the end of the season, but I'll leave them in the list for the time being.
A big two or three weeks coming up for all the sides, especially if Everton get a further points deduction to drag them towards the relegation zone.
It's extremely unlikely that Brentford are involved in the bottom three at the end of the season, but I'll leave them in the list for the time being.
A big two or three weeks coming up for all the sides, especially if Everton get a further points deduction to drag them towards the relegation zone.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Luton look to have a real chance with their last 4 games.
Re: Relegation Run-In
Cheers Goody. I have sent to Turfcast and credited your hard work mate
Re: Relegation Run-In
We have the easier games left but probably too late to keep us up. If Muric had been given a chance sooner and the shocking VAR decisions against us had been correct then I think we'd have been virtually safe by now.
Drawing away to West Ham and Chelsea and beating Brentford in our last 3 games is not relegation form.
Drawing away to West Ham and Chelsea and beating Brentford in our last 3 games is not relegation form.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
We really need to win on Tuesday, there is a fair chance that Forest win at home to Fulham and we can't let that gap grow any bigger. If the results go the way they should on paper for Sheffield United, Luton and Everton then we give ourselves a real chance.Firthy wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 11:17 amWe have the easier games left but probably too late to keep us up. If Muric had been given a chance sooner and the shocking VAR decisions against us had been correct then I think we'd have been virtually safe by now.
Drawing away to West Ham and Chelsea and beating Brentford in our last 3 games is not relegation form.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
It really could get the juices flowing if we could beat Wolves, and if other results are kind there will be some sweating and worried glances from Nottingham and Merseyside.Goody1975 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 11:44 amWe really need to win on Tuesday, there is a fair chance that Forest win at home to Fulham and we can't let that gap grow any bigger. If the results go the way they should on paper for Sheffield United, Luton and Everton then we give ourselves a real chance.
Fingers crossed we do our part at the very least.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Assuming this is now a three horse race for the final spot in the safety zone, then the table has been adjusted to just show ourselves, Luton and Forest.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
It's a big ask. We have the worst fixtures and the least points. Not exactly the combination you'd want at this stage.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Not looking good, but Luton have a huge chance (good luck to them) and if we can pick up a miracle win from somewhere we could suddenly be favourites to stay up. Forest have the hardest games, Luton the easiest.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Would you swap fixtures with forest? I think we'd all swap fixtures with Luton!
Assuming they get 3 points from Sheffield United and lose the other two, we'd need to get 4 points from Man Utd, Newcastle and Spurs to ensure a last day win keeps us up. Sounds doable, but would you prefer the Man City defeat - Sheffield United victory - chelsea wildcard route?
Assuming they get 3 points from Sheffield United and lose the other two, we'd need to get 4 points from Man Utd, Newcastle and Spurs to ensure a last day win keeps us up. Sounds doable, but would you prefer the Man City defeat - Sheffield United victory - chelsea wildcard route?
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Re: Relegation Run-In
An alternative table with the current league position of the opposition.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Good work these tables, but the reality remains that we have two winnable games at home, but tough away, while Forest have two winnable games away but tough at home.
I’d have our fixtures over theirs.
But their 3 point and goal difference gap is a problem, thanks to Darren England.
I’d have our fixtures over theirs.
But their 3 point and goal difference gap is a problem, thanks to Darren England.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
That Forest defence is almost as bad as Sheffields, though they have conceded fewer they look a shambles. Going to the Lane may not be easy for them. Could easily be a draw. I suspect we’ll be a lot clearer in a few days time.distortiondave wrote: ↑Wed Apr 24, 2024 10:40 pmWould you swap fixtures with forest? I think we'd all swap fixtures with Luton!
Assuming they get 3 points from Sheffield United and lose the other two, we'd need to get 4 points from Man Utd, Newcastle and Spurs to ensure a last day win keeps us up. Sounds doable, but would you prefer the Man City defeat - Sheffield United victory - chelsea wildcard route?
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Re: Relegation Run-In
I can see us getting 6 points. But unfortunately I Forest will get 3 v Sheff U. Our goal difference will be our killer.
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Re: Relegation Run-In
Forest should lose against City (but we've seen what happened tonight) and then we are relying on them not getting maximum points at Bramall Lane.
The problem is that the door could be left ajar for Luton as well as us.
The problem is that the door could be left ajar for Luton as well as us.