'The Project'...

[CoolClaret]

So where/how does it end you think?

A few small step backs but ultimately a period of sustained success in the Premier League?

Or slowly petering out and lulling to our sort of level pre 2013?

Or, goodness forbid, anything worse.

For me it could still go one of three ways - I'm not convinced either way based on the last two years of viewing.

[evensteadiereddie]

We'll find out by next Christmas.

[claptrappers_union]

Can you explain what the project actually is?

[NewClaret]

To be honest, I think ‘the project’ is something referenced more by fans than the club. Never hear anyone senior at the club mention it and if they have, certainly not repeatedly.

[claretonthecoast1882]

Owners will make a run for it with millions

We will end up in the National League playing Halifax again

Local guy will buy the club having made his fortune selling Royston Vasey merchandise and all will be good again.

[dsr]

Owners will make a run for it with millions

We will end up in the National League playing Halifax again

Local guy will buy the club having made his fortune selling Royston Vasey merchandise and all will be good again.

I wouldn't be surprised. I think the owners will "bet the ranch", but with borrowed money, not invested money (or even loan repaid money).

[Chester Perry]

I wouldn't be surprised. I think the owners will "bet the ranch", but with borrowed money, not invested money (or even loan repaid money).

Indeed 'the Project' which everyone at the club has stopped talking about (for now - it will be interesting to see the language used next season) has morphed into one of cash flow pursuit, as I have previously detailed. One of the key elements of those Kompany/Mooney recruitment meetings with the board on Mtb was the presence of ALK/VSL advisor Clayton Wyatt who is regarded as a funding and Cash Flow guru (apparently employed on a consultancy basis - perhaps this is where the management fees go, ALK/VSL do like to bring in their consultants).

[NewClaret]

Indeed 'the Project' which everyone at the club has stopped talking about (for now - it will be interesting to see the language used next season) has morphed into one of cash flow pursuit, as I have previously detailed. One of the key elements of those Kompany/Mooney recruitment meetings with the board on Mtb was the presence of ALK/VSL advisor Clayton Wyatt who is regarded as a funding and Cash Flow guru (apparently employed on a consultancy basis - perhaps this is where the management fees go, ALK/VSL do like to bring in their consultants).

Out of interest, who ever used the ‘project’ language on the club side? I can’t recall anyone doing so, but haven’t really been looking out for it.

[DAVETHEVICAR]

Appointing cash flow guru another clod of money to pay which Club hasn’t got
A real mess now imho

[Chester Perry]

Out of interest, who ever used the ‘project’ language on the club side? I can’t recall anyone doing so, but haven’t really been looking out for it.

some selective memory going on I think

first entry on a google search, even the clubs official media channel calls it a project -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bWvMAEtmIg

I recall various senior figures at the club talking about it right from the arrival of Alan Pace at his first Press Conference, not to mention the various threads on this board that make references to iand have done for several years

and it is always amazing to me that people do not pick up on the key issues that is posted

[Chester Perry]

Appointing cash flow guru another clod of money to pay which Club hasn’t got
A real mess now imho

tbf the club have managed to meet all the demands placed upon them, which is some going when you look at the detail of outflow. That said last summers chase for money: factoring a portion of 3 years Premier League revenues and replacing a £39.7m loan with a £70m one (that has more onerous terms than the MSD loan the club expensively escaped from 8 months earlier) on the same day early last June and having only £20.5m to hand on July 31st, even though the Premier League gave the club £35m - £40m a couple of weeks earlier, showed that the pursuit of cash has become rather desperate,

[claptrappers_union]

So what is The Project then

[The Shire Claret]

tbf the club have managed to meet all the demands placed upon them, which is some going when you look at the detail of outflow. That said last summers chase for money: factoring a portion of 3 years Premier League revenues and replacing a £39.7m loan with a £70m one (that has more onerous terms than the MSD loan the club expensively escaped from 8 months earlier) on the same day early last June and having only £20.5m to hand on July 31st, even though the Premier League gave the club £35m - £40m a couple of weeks earlier, showed that the pursuit of cash has become rather desperate,

With this is mind... I take it there will be a lot of players being sold mid season in the very likely event we are relegated ?

[Paul Waine]

tbf the club have managed to meet all the demands placed upon them, which is some going when you look at the detail of outflow. That said last summers chase for money: factoring a portion of 3 years Premier League revenues and replacing a £39.7m loan with a £70m one (that has more onerous terms than the MSD loan the club expensively escaped from 8 months earlier) on the same day early last June and having only £20.5m to hand on July 31st, even though the Premier League gave the club £35m - £40m a couple of weeks earlier, showed that the pursuit of cash has become rather desperate,

Hi CP, don't you think "chase for money" is what all clubs who plan to back their manager with funds for transfers do? Do you have sight of the facility agreement from last summer? Are the terms really more onerous that previous MSD loan? £20m at 31st July only suggests some of the facility hadn't been drawn at that date - no point drawing down funds before they are needed. Jan 2024, of course, finances change again with MGG facility. Is it reasonable to speculate that the MGG facility deals with the Going Concern material risk that BDO highlighted? Sounds like the "cash flow" consultant is worth their share of Management Fees.

[Quickenthetempo]

So what is The Project then

A term used when people need breathing space.

I.e they're not doing their job properly at the minute.

[NewClaret]

some selective memory going on I think

first entry on a google search, even the clubs official media channel calls it a project -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bWvMAEtmIg

I recall various senior figures at the club talking about it right from the arrival of Alan Pace at his first Press Conference, not to mention the various threads on this board that make references to iand have done for several years

and it is always amazing to me that people do not pick up on the key issues that is posted

Fair enough, what’s interesting is that link has the term in the title but I listened to the first couple of minutes and Kompany doesn’t mention it.

My point really is, I don’t think it’s been an over used term by anyone at the club. I don’t hear it rolled out in interview after interview. It’s just a term the fans appear to have picked up on and want to recycle for whatever reason.

What I see and hear far more of, for example, is the term Forever Forward. Which I prefer and find a more appropriate culture to be embedding to be honest. I could understand that being discussed (or derided) more because it’s what I hear/see from the club today.

[Chester Perry]

With this is mind... I take it there will be a lot of players being sold mid season in the very likely event we are relegated ?

One of the features of the club's notion of buying to sell (under ALK/VSL) is that there have been very few actual sales of note the most profitable being Collins and Cornet and they didn't produce the reported cost of Beyer before amortisation. When you look at the money the club has lost on Weghorst and the fact it didn't sell anyone of note in the last three windows, despite being top heavy on squad numbers and borrowing money to meet operational costs (a huge red flag) and player purchases (another warning sign).

The auditors warning appeared to use moderate language to the average reader, the fact it was there at all is actually quite significant as the accountants on here have already stated. The club is facing reduced parachute income compared to the last time because it factored some of it and is also facing reduced transfer fee income inward (from previous sales) because it factored some of it. It appears inevitable that a portion of the MGG loan will be called in before financial year end when relegation is confirmed (at least it is probable that there is no additional scheduled capital reduction payments on that in the coming year - which the Macquarie loan agreement had).

This summer will be another one where the club will likely chasing cash flow

[NewClaret]

One of the features of the club's notion of buying to sell (under ALK/VSL) is that there have been very few actual sales of note the most profitable being Collins and Cornet and they didn't produce the reported cost of Beyer before amortisation. When you look at the money the club has lost on Weghorst and the fact it didn't sell anyone of note in the last three windows, despite being top heavy on squad numbers and borrowing money to meet operational costs (a huge red flag) and player purchases (another warning sign).

The auditors warning appeared to use moderate language to the average reader, the fact it was there at all is actually quite significant as the accountants on here have already stated. The club is facing reduced parachute income compared to the last time because it factored some of it and is also facing reduced transfer fee income inward (from previous sales) because it factored some of it. It appears inevitable that a portion of the MGG loan will be called in before financial year end when relegation is confirmed (at least it is probable that there is no additional scheduled capital reduction payments on that in the coming year - which the Macquarie loan agreement had).

This summer will be another one where the club will likely chasing cash flow

Has anyone confirmed why the £88m/£80m was invested in the parent companies in September?

Until I understand who invested that, why, and what it will/has been used for, I feel we only have half of the jigsaw pieces and shouldn’t be drawing hard conclusions as to club finances.

[Chester Perry]

Fair enough, what’s interesting is that link has the term in the title but I listened to the first couple of minutes and Kompany doesn’t mention it.

My point really is, I don’t think it’s been an over used term by anyone at the club. I don’t hear it rolled out in interview after interview. It’s just a term the fans appear to have picked up on and want to recycle for whatever reason.

What I see and hear far more of, for example, is the term Forever Forward. Which I prefer and find a more appropriate culture to be embedding to be honest. I could understand that being discussed (or derided) more because it’s what I hear/see from the club today.

that is one of those nice sounding positive PR produced phrases, but if reflection, learning and proper assessment of the situation and the risks involved are not applied then you are just marching towards a potential catastrophe, which is, in part, what the auditors were saying. It is ok ALK/VSL and their mouthpieces saying "we've got this, trust us" but we must remember that it is their choices/actions that have created this financial situation.

[Paul Waine]

One of the features of the club's notion of buying to sell (under ALK/VSL) is that there have been very few actual sales of note the most profitable being Collins and Cornet and they didn't produce the reported cost of Beyer before amortisation. When you look at the money the club has lost on Weghorst and the fact it didn't sell anyone of note in the last three windows, despite being top heavy on squad numbers and borrowing money to meet operational costs (a huge red flag) and player purchases (another warning sign).

The auditors warning appeared to use moderate language to the average reader, the fact it was there at all is actually quite significant as the accountants on here have already stated. The club is facing reduced parachute income compared to the last time because it factored some of it and is also facing reduced transfer fee income inward (from previous sales) because it factored some of it. It appears inevitable that a portion of the MGG loan will be called in before financial year end when relegation is confirmed (at least it is probable that there is no additional scheduled capital reduction payments on that in the coming year - which the Macquarie loan agreement had).

This summer will be another one where the club will likely chasing cash flow

Hi CP, my thoughts:

1) a bit much to pick out 2 January windows and one summer windows, especially when the club sold a number of players in the summer window before those 3 you mention, especially when the club has brought in players in each of Vincent Kompany's 4 windows.
2) how much money do you think the club has lost on Wout Weghorst, is there any information on his loan fees?
3) BDO's comments were reasonable, but they didn't qualify their audit opinion. Going concern was still deemed as the correct basis for the accounts.
4) don't you think the reason why the club arranged a new facility with MGG is to manage the financial risks of relegation - and address the "material risk" BDO mentioned?

[Chester Perry]

Has anyone confirmed why the £88m/£80m was invested in the parent companies in September?

Until I understand who invested that, why, and what it will/has been used for, I feel we only have half of the jigsaw pieces and shouldn’t be drawing hard conclusions as to club finances.

The only hard conclusions that have been drawn are from the various statements in the accounts since ALK/VSL took control and that is a tale of outflow (primarily for non club developmental - on and off the pitch) and repeated statements from the major shareholders that they can deal with their debt to the club via dividends - though that will get more difficult if they keep producing losses. It is worth remembering that at last public record this debt was owed to the club by Calder Vale Holdings Limited an entity with legally stated assets of £0.01 - though of course we have never seen a financial report for this entity which I understand is due to be dissolved in the coming months.

The monies you talk of, that appeared last September is for now just a capital balance in Velocity Capital (UK) Holdings and events from last October show us how quickly and easily that can change.

[CoolClaret]

Fair enough, what’s interesting is that link has the term in the title but I listened to the first couple of minutes and Kompany doesn’t mention it.

My point really is, I don’t think it’s been an over used term by anyone at the club. I don’t hear it rolled out in interview after interview. It’s just a term the fans appear to have picked up on and want to recycle for whatever reason.

What I see and hear far more of, for example, is the term Forever Forward. Which I prefer and find a more appropriate culture to be embedding to be honest. I could understand that being discussed (or derided) more because it’s what I hear/see from the club today.

The term 'Project' was definitely used initially by the club as alluded to by CP alongside the sort of '3 year plan' terminology...

Then, at least how I recall it the term 'project' kinda got 'co-opted' if you will by some fans as a bit of an excuse/coping mechanism after some of the abject performances early on in the season.

Recently, both Josh Cullen and VK have been re-iterating a similar sort of vernacular when asked recently about the (short-lived) turn of form/remaining fixtures.

'Forever forward' is just the Clubs' new motto used across the socials/website - I agree with you there that is a good term to use and a culture to strive towards.

[TheFamilyCat]

So what is The Project then

A **** ITV gameshow hosted by John Bishop.

[Chester Perry]

Hi CP, my thoughts:

1) a bit much to pick out 2 January windows and one summer windows, especially when the club sold a number of players in the summer window before those 3 you mention, especially when the club has brought in players in each of Vincent Kompany's 4 windows.
2) how much money do you think the club has lost on Wout Weghorst, is there any information on his loan fees?
3) BDO's comments were reasonable, but they didn't qualify their audit opinion. Going concern was still deemed as the correct basis for the accounts.
4) don't you think the reason why the club arranged a new facility with MGG is to manage the financial risks of relegation - and address the "material risk" BDO mentioned?

re 1 - I specifically focused on players bought under the new ownership that is all - the record is not great to date, it may change but there are challenges and certainly more factoring of any decent fees agreed ahead
re 2 - I would be shocked if the loan fees met both his wages and the circa £3m a season we are paying in transfer stage payments - I have never been convinced that he had a relegation cluse in his contract
re 3 - correct, but as BDO acknowledge the marketplace has changed, clubs are more focused on keeping on the right side of FFP across Europe I would say
re 4 - absolutely, to my mind it will address the the issue of scheduled capital reduction, away from relegation impacts which I an assuming are still included in this deal.

[NewClaret]

that is one of those nice sounding positive PR produced phrases, but if reflection, learning and proper assessment of the situation and the risks involved are not applied then you are just marching towards a potential catastrophe, which is, in part, what the auditors were saying. It is ok ALK/VSL and their mouthpieces saying "we've got this, trust us" but we must remember that it is their choices/actions that have created this financial situation.

Well I’m pretty sure I’m right in saying that Forever Forward existed well before ALK. I remember it on my season cards years back. So if it was a PR-produced, it was under Garlick and you could debate around whether moving the club forward was his primary ambition, I agree.

It has been picked up on by the current ownership (rightly, I think) as a good slogan or whatever, but I hope that’s because that’s the culture they want to instil as a club.

Mouthpieces? I’m really not sure I get this term. Who exactly are ALK’s mouthpieces? I also don’t hear them saying “we got this, trust us”… or making any comment whatsoever on club finances, tbh. The only discussion around our accounts is on here.

[aggi]

Hi CP, my thoughts:

1) a bit much to pick out 2 January windows and one summer windows, especially when the club sold a number of players in the summer window before those 3 you mention, especially when the club has brought in players in each of Vincent Kompany's 4 windows.
2) how much money do you think the club has lost on Wout Weghorst, is there any information on his loan fees?
3) BDO's comments were reasonable, but they didn't qualify their audit opinion. Going concern was still deemed as the correct basis for the accounts.
4) don't you think the reason why the club arranged a new facility with MGG is to manage the financial risks of relegation - and address the "material risk" BDO mentioned?

Accounts not being prepared on a break up basis is, I would say, the absolute minimum you would expect.

[aggi]

For those who have listened to the Offensive we know how the project ends
https://stak.london/shows/the-offensive/

More realistically, we are one of the best placed teams to become a yo-yo club.

[Paul Waine]

Accounts not being prepared on a break up basis is, I would say, the absolute minimum you would expect.

I'm sure you will understand that if BDO didn't think going concern was correct they would have qualified their audit opinion.

[Chester Perry]

Hi CP, don't you think "chase for money" is what all clubs who plan to back their manager with funds for transfers do? Do you have sight of the facility agreement from last summer? Are the terms really more onerous that previous MSD loan? £20m at 31st July only suggests some of the facility hadn't been drawn at that date - no point drawing down funds before they are needed. Jan 2024, of course, finances change again with MGG facility. Is it reasonable to speculate that the MGG facility deals with the Going Concern material risk that BDO highlighted? Sounds like the "cash flow" consultant is worth their share of Management Fees.

to an extent yes - Factoring the Premier League money I understand, all promoted clubs do it (the Premier League rules are structured to promote the idea) but taking an additional £30m loan as well when you add those to sums to the 1st Premier League TV payment and have only £20.5m a few weeks later, it is a warning sign to my mind, particularly when accruals and prepayments total in excess of £50m

The Macquarie loan was more onerous because it had the same interest rate, the same requirement for a capital reduction for each season outside the Premier League (though we do not know how much) plus the requirement to pay down the capital balance during the loans lifetime according to a schedule - leaving the potential for two forms of capital repayment in a Championship season. Not forgetting that this loan was the first to be used not just for share buying purposes but also for operational and trading purposes, which are widely accepted warning signs in football circles.

[NewClaret]

The term 'Project' was definitely used initially by the club as alluded to by CP alongside the sort of '3 year plan' terminology...

Then, at least how I recall it the term 'project' kinda got 'co-opted' if you will by some fans as a bit of an excuse/coping mechanism after some of the abject performances early on in the season.

Recently, both Josh Cullen and VK have been re-iterating a similar sort of vernacular when asked recently about the (short-lived) turn of form/remaining fixtures.

'Forever forward' is just the Clubs' new motto used across the socials/website - I agree with you there that is a good term to use and a culture to strive towards.

I wasn’t doubting that someone (a leader or player) has used the term at some point. But equally I can’t imagine that there’s a single fan in the land that hasn’t heard it used by someone at their club, particularly if they’re looking to progress or have experienced major change as we have in recent years.

My point is, it’s not used extensively by those within the club and fans (on either side of the debate) have been the ones using it and pushing it. It really isn’t a big deal whatsoever.

I agree re: VK/Cullen using a similar vernacular in recent interviews and rightly so - we are a team/club seeking to progress and move forward even if our results on the field haven’t been great this season.

Forever Forward has been around a while and was on the season cards a good few years back, so not new and I’m 99% sure was around under Garlick & one of the things ALK have rightly carried forward imo.

[agreenwood]

It’s easy to deride things when they aren’t going well, but whether what we’re doing is a “project” or just an approach, it appeals to me and I’ve been more engaged over the last 2 years than I have been for a long time.

I like the idea of bringing in young, technically gifted footballers. Of course there’s scope to have a more balanced approach and ensure there’s enough know-how and experience to knit things together, but I’m still onboard.

So long as the club’s financial future isn’t jeopardised, I’m happy that we’re trying this, even if it ultimately doesn’t work.

[Chester Perry]

For those who have listened to the Offensive we know how the project ends
https://stak.london/shows/the-offensive/

More realistically, we are one of the best placed teams to become a yo-yo club.

Only until FIFA/UEFA/The Sneeky, Greedy Six/ECA get their wish to reduce the league to 18 (ideally 16 - in their view) teams in the coming seasons.

[Chester Perry]

It’s easy to deride things when they aren’t going well, but whether what we’re doing is a “project” or just an approach, it appeals to me and I’ve been more engaged over the last 2 years than I have been for a long time.

I like the idea of bringing in young, technically gifted footballers. Of course there’s scope to have a more balanced approach and ensure there’s enough know-how and experience to knit things together, but I’m still onboard.

So long as the club’s financial future isn’t jeopardised, I’m happy that we’re trying this, even if it ultimately doesn’t work.

I wouldn't call them exciting times, but they are certainly not dull and interesting times is way too much of a curse

[CoolClaret]

I like the idea of bringing in young, technically gifted footballers. Of course there’s scope to have a more balanced approach and ensure there’s enough know-how and experience to knit things together, but I’m still onboard.

So long as the club’s financial future isn’t jeopardised, I’m happy that we’re trying this, even if it ultimately doesn’t work.

I agree with this agreenwood, particularly bringing in young, talented players...

I just cannot stand seeing the board take unnecessary risk, heavily speculating using the club as collateral so that they can make as much money as possible without facing to lose any of it because ultimately if it goes tits up, it's the club that will suffer, not the owners.

Now, it's still in their best interest to make sure the latter doesn't happen - because they obviously do want to make money but they had the opportunity after promotion to be a little more risk averse and get our finances looking healthy again (after the leveraged buyout) but it's clear to me that isn't a priority at all for them.

Now someone correct me if I'm wrong but to me it seems like the board are happy with 'serviceable' debt, dividend payouts for themselves and then selling the club 5-15 years down the line for a healthy profit as football & football clubs valuations (and in particular the PL/PL clubs) are on track to absolutely fly up - maybe even outpacing the major stock indexes so the board will be absolutely quids in.

Of course this is dependent on if we do have a sustained period of success in the PL....

[Big Vinny K]

to an extent yes - Factoring the Premier League money I understand, all promoted clubs do it (the Premier League rules are structured to promote the idea) but taking an additional £30m loan as well when you add those to sums to the 1st Premier League TV payment and have only £20.5m a few weeks later, it is a warning sign to my mind, particularly when accruals and prepayments total in excess of £50m

The Macquarie loan was more onerous because it had the same interest rate, the same requirement for a capital reduction for each season outside the Premier League (though we do not know how much) plus the requirement to pay down the capital balance during the loans lifetime according to a schedule - leaving the potential for two forms of capital repayment in a Championship season. Not forgetting that this loan was the first to be used not just for share buying purposes but also for operational and trading purposes, which are widely accepted warning signs in football circles.

I get your concern CP and share it too.
But when you say “for operational and trading purposes” a more simplistic way of saying this is that they were using it to fund transfer spend…..let’s say it as it is.

The fundamental issue is that the money we have spent on players has not worked out. If it had and we were staying comfortably up I think the conversation would be about this is how we are balancing the books, funding record levels of transfer spend, reduced the wage bill by buying young players with a view to selling them at a profit in the future etc etc

Because we are getting relegated the language (quite understandably) is a lot more negative. Whilst there is a good chance that we have some kind of plan for relegation I do not believe for a minute that we would have done what we did if we thought we were going to go down.

And I do agree that when you go down the road we have and you get relegated like we will that we are at a whole new level of risk. Anyone who does not believe that either has no understanding of our finances or is in complete denial. If we do not go back up next season then I have no idea what will happen - but it will not be pretty.

Even how we are going to deal with next season is a massive challenge - I cannot see anything but another massive upheaval in our playing staff and personally I don’t think that is sustainable (on or off the pitch)

[dsr]

It’s easy to deride things when they aren’t going well, but whether what we’re doing is a “project” or just an approach, it appeals to me and I’ve been more engaged over the last 2 years than I have been for a long time.

I like the idea of bringing in young, technically gifted footballers. Of course there’s scope to have a more balanced approach and ensure there’s enough know-how and experience to knit things together, but I’m still onboard.

So long as the club’s financial future isn’t jeopardised, I’m happy that we’re trying this, even if it ultimately doesn’t work.

If it doesn't work we go bust, or find ourselves chasing round to keep heads above water like Sheffield Wed have for donkey's years. Or perhaps admin. Either way, the club's financial future is well and truly jeopardised.

[forzagranata]

If you look at the case of clubs where things have gone badly wrong in the past, it would suggest there are a number of red flags to watch out for:

1. Large loans/debt
2. Excessive transfer activity combined with poor results and running at a significant loss in transfer dealings.
3. Lack of transparency and openness with fans.
4. High turnover of staff
5. Signs of disorganisation within the club/stadium.

It's very good that there are people who are keeping a close eye for any sign of these sort of developments.

[Big Vinny K]

If you look at the case of clubs where things have gone badly wrong in the past, it would suggest there are a number of red flags to watch out for:

1. Large loans/debt
2. Excessive transfer activity combined with poor results and running at a significant loss in transfer dealings.
3. Lack of transparency and openness with fans.
4. High turnover of staff
5. Signs of disorganisation within the club/stadium.

It's very good that there are people who are keeping a close eye for any sign of these sort of developments.

BINGO !!

[Chester Perry]

I get your concern CP and share it too.
But when you say “for operational and trading purposes” a more simplistic way of saying this is that they were using it to fund transfer spend…..let’s say it as it is.

The fundamental issue is that the money we have spent on players has not worked out. If it had and we were staying comfortably up I think the conversation would be about this is how we are balancing the books, funding record levels of transfer spend, reduced the wage bill by buying young players with a view to selling them at a profit in the future etc etc

Because we are getting relegated the language (quite understandably) is a lot more negative. Whilst there is a good chance that we have some kind of plan for relegation I do not believe for a minute that we would have done what we did if we thought we were going to go down.

And I do agree that when you go down the road we have and you get relegated like we will that we are at a whole new level of risk. Anyone who does not believe that either has no understanding of our finances or is in complete denial. If we do not go back up next season then I have no idea what will happen - but it will not be pretty.

Even how we are going to deal with next season is a massive challenge - I cannot see anything but another massive upheaval in our playing staff and personally I don’t think that is sustainable (on or off the pitch)

That there is what is known as hubris, and is what many argued for from the stands under the Garlick years when he always appeared to budget for a 17th place finish, safe in the knowledge that should the club be relegated there would be no significant losses to carry as bonuses together with certain conditional transfer payments would not be required, and everyone had relegation clauses in their contract.

last season saw a declared wage to revenue ratio of 82.7% and a squad cost ratio (wages + Amortisation/revenue of 116.8% - figures only ever seen once under Garlick, the year he took sole control and at a time when the club had, what were then, record levels of debt (also note these types of figures were the number when the club was under the influence of Brendan Flood), Garlick took significant action and then got lucky with Sean Dyche, but did not forget the lessons of the immediate past whatever the sins many feel he committed during and ending his tenure.

Overview 1998-2020.JPG (173.66 KiB) Viewed 1209 times

[aggi]

I'm sure you will understand that if BDO didn't think going concern was correct they would have qualified their audit opinion.

Of course. Your post read as if it was downplaying the material uncertainty note by saying accounts were still prepared on a going concern basis whereas we both know that accounts being based on a break up basis is pretty catastrophic. Maybe that wasn't your intention but that's how it read to me.

[aggi]

I get your concern CP and share it too.
But when you say “for operational and trading purposes” a more simplistic way of saying this is that they were using it to fund transfer spend…..let’s say it as it is.

The fundamental issue is that the money we have spent on players has not worked out. If it had and we were staying comfortably up I think the conversation would be about this is how we are balancing the books, funding record levels of transfer spend, reduced the wage bill by buying young players with a view to selling them at a profit in the future etc etc

Because we are getting relegated the language (quite understandably) is a lot more negative. Whilst there is a good chance that we have some kind of plan for relegation I do not believe for a minute that we would have done what we did if we thought we were going to go down.

And I do agree that when you go down the road we have and you get relegated like we will that we are at a whole new level of risk. Anyone who does not believe that either has no understanding of our finances or is in complete denial. If we do not go back up next season then I have no idea what will happen - but it will not be pretty.

Even how we are going to deal with next season is a massive challenge - I cannot see anything but another massive upheaval in our playing staff and personally I don’t think that is sustainable (on or off the pitch)

Obviously this is all crystal ball stuff but I suspect the strategy would have been pretty similar even if they'd known we were going to be relegated.

The issue hasn't really been that we're likely to be relegated, it's the nature of it. We've not seen a player really burst through and look like they'll sell for multiples of what we paid which is the problem with this season from a financial perspective (obviously relegation also won't help but they can have a plan for that).

[Big Vinny K]

Obviously this is all crystal ball stuff but I suspect the strategy would have been pretty similar even if they'd known we were going to be relegated.

The issue hasn't really been that we're likely to be relegated, it's the nature of it. We've not seen a player really burst through and look like they'll sell for multiples of what we paid which is the problem with this season from a financial perspective (obviously relegation also won't help but they can have a plan for that).

Yep I do they think they will have a plan for relegation - but (and I know I’m stating the obvious) it will mean going back up quickly.

It’s looking likely that we will get relegated with a low points total. If we would have had some our players burst through it would have not taken that much more to stay up looking at the other teams down there.

A bit like with Nathan Collins and the money we made on him we needed the likes of Amdouni, Tresor, Trafford etc to have good seasons if we were going to make £10m or so on them like we did on Collins. Right now if we tried to sell all 3 players we are probably looking at losses.

Berge is possibly the only similar success we have to Collins - and even here I don’t think we’d make £10m.

If we’d have spent hardly anything in the transfer market this season it’s hard to see that we would have done much worse. And we would not have been left with a relatively large number of expensive “flops” (I accept it’s too early to say that definitively but right now it gives us a big potential issue). But as we also know we would have had a lot of fans moaning at the lack of spend.

Simple terms we are facing what a lot of clubs have faced in the past - spent a lot of money on players that haven’t worked out and we don’t have a sugar daddy to write it off and spend another £100m every season till eventually it works out (see Brighton !!)

[claretonthecoast1882]

Yep I do they think they will have a plan for relegation - but (and I know I’m stating the obvious) it will mean going back up quickly.

It’s looking likely that we will get relegated with a low points total. If we would have had some our players burst through it would have not taken that much more to stay up looking at the other teams down there.

A bit like with Nathan Collins and the money we made on him we needed the likes of Amdouni, Tresor, Trafford etc to have good seasons if we were going to make £10m or so on them like we did on Collins. Right now if we tried to sell all 3 players we are probably looking at losses.

Berge is possibly the only similar success we have to Collins - and even here I don’t think we’d make £10m.

If we’d have spent hardly anything in the transfer market this season it’s hard to see that we would have done much worse. And we would not have been left with a relatively large number of expensive “flops” (I accept it’s too early to say that definitively but right now it gives us a big potential issue). But as we also know we would have had a lot of fans moaning at the lack of spend.

Simple terms we are facing what a lot of clubs have faced in the past - spent a lot of money on players that haven’t worked out and we don’t have a sugar daddy to write it off and spend another £100m every season till eventually it works out (see Brighton !!)

How did we make 10m on Collins, wasn't it nearer the 2m mark ?

[Big Vinny K]

How did we make 10m on Collins, wasn't it nearer the 2m mark ?

Thought we bought him for around £11m to £12m and sold him for just under £21m.
That’s the kind of numbers widely reported at the time.

[claretonthecoast1882]

Thought we bought him for around £11m to £12m and sold him for just under £21m.
That’s the kind of numbers widely reported at the time.

If we did then that is great work, always had in my mind we made around 2m on him.

[Vegas Claret]

Every club uses the word 'project'

Imagine being triggered by the word 'project'

[claretonthecoast1882]

Every club uses the word 'project'

Imagine being triggered by the word 'project'

Had Garlick or Kilby used the word it would be deemed normal.

[ceborame]

The 'project' is a way of deflecting blame for the shambles that is happening this season

[agreenwood]

Every club uses the word 'project'

Imagine being triggered by the word 'project'

Agreed. Most clubs have a strategy that looks a few years ahead. Not sure what the difference between a strategy, approach or project is really.

[Chester Perry]

Thought we bought him for around £11m to £12m and sold him for just under £21m.
That’s the kind of numbers widely reported at the time.

Paid £12m, reported £20.5m sale, we may have made conditional transfer payments based on appearances and a first International cap - then there are the sell on fees (not to mention the cost of factoring the balance of payments from Wolves) probably made £5m-£6m though book value will say £8m - £9m.

Incidentally with Wolves selling the following summer the other winner will be Macquarie, who signed up for a 3 year instalment and will have put that cost into the sum paid to Burnley, then had it all paid by Wolves within 12 months, because they sold him and consequently had to clear the balance owing under FA rules.