Magic Numbers - 2016/17

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:26 pm

aggi wrote:I completely forgot that I updated the magic numbers spreadsheet a few weeks ago for the Premier League.

At the moment I've hidden the extrapolated tables based on 6 & 10 matches as they're a bit meaningless.

Usual caveats apply, it's a theoretical total for each team individually, it doesn't take into account teams playing each other.

Link is here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:36 pm

And they drop a little more
Sunderland -3.........37
Crystal palace -3.....38
Middlesboro -3........42

Come on you clarets!!!!
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vegas Claret » Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:39 pm

is that the maximum points they can get ?

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Caernarfon_Claret » Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:45 pm

Vegas Claret wrote:is that the maximum points they can get ?
No it's the number of points we need on top of our current points total to finish above them.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Paul Waine » Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:28 pm

Caernarfon_Claret wrote:No it's the number of points we need on top of our current points total to finish above them.
....assuming each of those 3 clubs get max points from every single one of their remaining games....

I've not checked if they play each other, if so the max will come down a little more - but the "magic numbers" model can't factor that in, only the assumption of 3 points a game.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by bfccrazy » Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:28 pm

Looking very nice - love how quickly it seema to be dropping !!! No doubt with half a season to go most thoae below will have to play each other again and that gives us a certain drop in required points...... Cant wait to check bak in a few weeks.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Andreshotboots » Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:53 pm

bfccrazy wrote:Looking very nice - love how quickly it seema to be dropping !!! No doubt with half a season to go most thoae below will have to play each other again and that gives us a certain drop in required points...... Cant wait to check bak in a few weeks.
Without wishing to sound negative we also have to play them near the bottom so a bad result will hugely alter things

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by bfccrazy » Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:57 pm

Andreshotboots wrote:Without wishing to sound negative we also have to play them near the bottom so a bad result will hugely alter things
It will but we currently hae a kind of 4 game window on relegation with 10 points (it'd take us 4 losses and 18th to win 4 along with those above them to also win) for us to be caught up.

Each game they play each other means another team that HAS to drop points below us meaning one of those 4 games they have to catch us up is gone. Pretty soon (as long as we dont capitulate and lose every game) there will be teams that will drop points and have minimal games left to actually close the gap.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by minnieclaret » Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:57 pm

When they play each other: one drops 3 points or they both drop 2 points.
When they play us it could be a 6 point swing. Take care of business we'll be OK.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by minnieclaret » Sat Jan 21, 2017 9:58 pm

Simultaneous posting, bfccrazy.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Spijed » Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:19 pm

Andreshotboots wrote:Without wishing to sound negative we also have to play them near the bottom so a bad result will hugely alter things
We have to play 6 out of the 7 bottom teams away from home! :)

Plus Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton.

Easy! :)

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Spijed » Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:12 am

Having had a quick look, there aren't many, if any seasons, where the teams in the relegation places have got 16 points or less after 22 matches (assuming Hull don't get anything away at Chelsea).

Ten points clear with 16 matches to go is a very healthy position to be in - assuming we don't get anything at Arsenal.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by steve1264b » Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:27 am

This weekend was a big opportunity for those below us to make a move. They didnt. Another weekend gone. This 10 point gap remains. 16 match days to go.

If this was boxing we would be declared the winners this weekend irrespective of todays results.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Goddy » Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:18 pm

So I was saying earlier in the thread that the magic numbers were dropping by around 3 per game (against the team which was third bottom) for the first 20 games. Keeping this up would mean safety by game 35.

Well even after today's get-wrenching finish, the good news is that the magic numbers have dropped by a further 8 against third bottom in just two games (after the game 20 comprehensive update)!! Keep up this rate (a 4 point drop per game) and we would be safe in just a further 10 games!!!

Things really aren't as bad as we're probably all feeling right now. I full expect us to be safe with several games spare.

Keep the faith and UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:24 pm

Hull-3......38
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by minnieclaret » Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:16 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bump

Not updated yet but it's coming.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:15 am

Boro -5...........37
Swansea -3......37
Leicester -6.....37
Hull -3............35
Crystal palace-3.35
Sunderland -5.....32

And they all fall again
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:26 am

That may well come down further over the weekend.
Look at the next fixtures
Hull. Man Utd A (tomorrow ).
Liverpool H
Crystal palace v Sunderland
Spurs v boro
Man city v Swansea
Leicester v Man Utd
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by minnieclaret » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:39 am

3 wins would take us to 38 points.
between playing each other and playing the top sides I can't see 3 of the bottom 5 getting to 38.
1 game at a time.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by bfccrazy » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:47 am

Who needs pornhub eh....

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by JTClaret » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:27 pm

Ahhhhh...

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Goddy » Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:12 pm

So, after another 3 games since aggi posted the table (above) and the bottom 6 have magic numbers of;

Leicester 37
Boro 37
Swansea 37
Palace 35
Hull 33
S'Land 32

So the bottom 3 are still reducing at just over 3 points per game. We continue to appear to head towards safety after game 35 at the current rate ....even with the recent uplift in form in one or two of those bottom six. Remember, too, those bottom six will have to play each other so will mean those magic numbers will reduce anyhow whatever happens.

I get the 'one game at a time' brigade but things are inexorably (it seems) heading towards an outcome where it's looking increasingly likely that we stay up. In fact (magic numbers or not), given the fact that no-one's been relegated with 40 points we could even be safe (albeit not quite mathematically) after just 4 more games!!

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by CnBtruntru » Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:24 pm

Man city v Swansea

City seem to be doing better now they have a Holy Man.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by claret wizard » Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:41 pm

I think it's three teams who have been relegated with 40 points or more in Prem history. Not this season though, top teams getting too many points for that.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:44 pm

If you take the results of the last fourteen matches of the bottom six and take them forward you get the following for the remaining games:

Sunderland 17 pts would give them 36 at the end of the season
Palace 8 pts = 27
Hull 13 pts = 33
Swansea 16 pts = 37
Boro 11 pts = 32
Leicester 9 pts = 30

This is presuming Man U & Man City win today!

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Sun Feb 05, 2017 5:38 pm

Another round of matches and some still come down

Boro -3.............34
Leicester -3........34
Swansea -3.........34
Palace -3............32
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Sun Feb 05, 2017 5:49 pm

We could have 3 teams under thirty after next weekend even if we get beat
Hull
Palace and
Sunderland

Just looked at their fixtures
Arsenal v Hull
Boro v Everton
Stoke v palace
Sunderland v Southampton
Swansea v Leicester

Looking good
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by NRC » Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:41 pm

Spijed wrote:If you take the results of the last fourteen matches of the bottom six and take them forward you get the following for the remaining games:

Sunderland 17 pts would give them 36 at the end of the season
Palace 8 pts = 27
Hull 13 pts = 33
Swansea 16 pts = 37
Boro 11 pts = 32
Leicester 9 pts = 30
Never happens like that though spiked - don't bottom teams almost always improve their PPG records in the last 10 games?

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vegas Claret » Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:47 pm

I suspect at the least both Sunderland and Swansea will win next weekend

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:58 pm

NRC wrote:Never happens like that though spiked - don't bottom teams almost always improve their PPG records in the last 10 games?
That's true, but some teams will also end up with less points per game. That's why having six teams at the bottom makes our position far better.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by bfccrazy » Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:45 pm

Spijed wrote:That's true, but some teams will also end up with less points per game. That's why having six teams at the bottom makes our position far better.
It'd be interesting to see how many of those below us play each other again yet too which would show how many matches of interest yo our safety are left where a team involved is guaranteed to drop points.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:43 pm

It is interesting. Very complicated and probably meaningless until with, say, eight games to go but very interesting.

Boro HOME v Sunderland AWAY v Swansea, Palace, Hull.

Leicester HOME v Sunderland, Hull. AWAY v Swansea, Palace.

Hull HOME v Sunderland, Swansea. Boro. AWAY v Palace, Leicester.

Palace HOME v Boro, Hull, Leicester. AWAY = none.

Swansea HOME v Leicester, Boro. AWAY v Sunderland, Hull.

Sunderland HOME v Swansea. AWAY v Boro, Leicester, Hull.

Palace, shocking at home at the moment, don't play any rivals away - or, in other words, face sides well above them away.

And, for the record,

BFC HOME v none AWAY v Hull, Swansea, Sunderland, Boro, Palace.
Last edited by evensteadiereddie on Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Ashingtonclaret46 » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:49 pm

In addition to those remaining fixtures the final day of the season sees the following:-
Sunderland at Chelsea: Crystal Palace at Manchester United: Hull home to Spurs: Middlesbrough at Liverpool and Leicester home to Bournemouth

It could be a very interesting last day, hopefully our interest will be from afar

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:53 pm

12/02
Swansea v Leicester
25/02
Palace v boro
Hull v Burnley
04/03
Leicester v Hull
Swansea v Burnley
11/03
Hull v Swansea
Boro v Sunderland
18/03
Sunderland v Burnley
01/04
Swansea v Boro
04/04
Hull v Boro
Leicester v Sunderland
08/04
Boro v Burnley
15/04
Palace v Leicester
29/04
Palace v Burnley
06/05
Hull v Sunderland
13/05
Palace v Hull
Sunderland v Swansea

So there is something to keep us interested up until the last weekend. The numbers will come down as both teams can't win!!
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:56 pm

Although we are away to most of our potentially so-called relegation rivals, it really is in our hands. Any win or wins from those five should get us over the line with a bit to spare.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:09 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote:It is interesting. Very complicated and probably meaningless until with, say, eight games to go but very interesting.

Boro HOME v Sunderland AWAY v Swansea, Palace, Hull.

Leicester HOME v Sunderland, Hull. AWAY v Swansea, Palace.

Hull HOME v Sunderland, Swansea. Boro. AWAY v Palace, Leicester.

Palace HOME v Boro, Hull, Leicester. AWAY = none.

Swansea HOME v Leicester, Boro. AWAY v Sunderland, Hull.

Sunderland HOME v Swansea. AWAY v Boro, Leicester, Hull.

Palace, shocking at home at the moment, don't play any rivals away - or, in other words, face sides well above them away.

And, for the record,

BFC HOME v none AWAY v Hull, Swansea, Sunderland, Boro, Palace.
I know that the magic numbers are not speculative, but let's just suppose that each team wins there home matches but loses their away matches. The magic numbers would be affected like this
Boro -9
Leicester. -6
Hull-6
Swansea -6
Sunderland-9
Palace 0
Of course if all were draws that would be better overall for us as
Boro -8
Leicester -8
Hull -10
Palace -6
Swansea -8
Sunderland -8

It will be interesting to say the least
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Wile E Coyote » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:14 pm

i really envy those who can grasp all this, I was **** at maths, , still am.

it appears from the comments underneath all the gobbledegook numbers, that we are in a half decent poistion ? i think.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:33 pm

Yes, basically, unless most of the teams below us go win crazy, three wins would most likely do it.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Dorset Dave » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:48 pm

Love the Magic Numbers although I am with Wile E Coyote on fully understanding it lol.

UTC

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Wile E Coyote » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:55 pm

3 wins is easy surely !! we can open the champagne now .

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vegas Claret » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:16 pm

Wile E Coyote wrote:i really envy those who can grasp all this, I was **** at maths, , still am.

it appears from the comments underneath all the gobbledegook numbers, that we are in a half decent poistion ? i think.
Same here but this helped

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_(sports)

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Wile E Coyote » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:40 pm

thanks Vegas, checked the link, sad to admit it made it look moe impenetrable.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by HunterST_BFC » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:52 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote:It is interesting. Very complicated and probably meaningless until with, say, eight games to go but very interesting.

Boro HOME v Sunderland AWAY v Swansea, Palace, Hull.

Leicester HOME v Sunderland, Hull. AWAY v Swansea, Palace.

Hull HOME v Sunderland, Swansea. Boro. AWAY v Palace, Leicester.

Palace HOME v Boro, Hull, Leicester. AWAY = none.

Swansea HOME v Leicester, Boro. AWAY v Sunderland, Hull.

Sunderland HOME v Swansea. AWAY v Boro, Leicester, Hull.

Palace, shocking at home at the moment, don't play any rivals away - or, in other words, face sides well above them away.

And, for the record,

BFC HOME v none AWAY v Hull, Swansea, Sunderland, Boro, Palace.
evensteadiereddie has it right here above...

These are the games that will very most likely set and decide the lower table order.
Currently each of these games is worth 6 points (3 each team) in the magic numbers. Only 3 points, maybe 1 point each, can be taken in each of these fixtures. So it's going to get twitchy for a few teams if they lose a few of the games listed above.

As for us with, this in mind - even an away point at each of the 5 teams to play is not a bad result as it hurts their chances more than ours. However I think we will take 3 points from at least 2 of these games.

UTC

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by aggi » Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:22 pm

I must admit that I don't find the magic numbers as interesting as the extrapolated form tables (although it will obviously become more interesting as teams head to zero).

It has occurred to me though that these may not be quite accurate. What we're showing at the moment is the points to be level with us. I think to be strictly accurate 1 should be added to the magic number so as to reflect the position where teams can't catch us at all.

The alternative is that the magic number reflects the current goal difference (i.e. if they have a better goal difference than Burnley 1 is added to the magic number, if it is worse then it stays the same). I'm not sure if this is a good idea as goal difference is a reflection of the current rather than final position.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by NRC » Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:48 pm

I've searched but can't find the data, but I'd love to see the points gained by the teams in positions 16-20 10 games out. I suspect the increase in points-per-game earned is material. In other words extrapolation doesn't work as it doesn't take into account the increased "effort" impact of fewer games remaining so survival becomes more desperate, which leads to the better PPG

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by dibraidio » Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:07 pm

During the promotion season I did a thread entitled something like "We'll be in the top two until..." I did think of doing a "We're out of the bottom 3 until..." but it just doesn't seem the same as the difference between the points available and points gained are so much different.

Currently we're out of the bottom 3 until March 11th as Leicester, Swansea and Hull can't all win as they play each other in the next three games.
This of course assumes that we get 0 points from our games against Chelsea, Hull and Swansea.

Leicester could go above us on March 4th if they beat Swansea away and then Liverpool and Hull at home.
Swansea could go above us if they beat Leicester at home and Chelsea away and then beat us on March 4th.
Hull could catch us on March 4th but that would mean beating Arsenal and Leicester away (and us getting no points including the game against them).
Palace could go above us on March 11th if they win their next three and beat Spurs at home on the 11th.
Sunderland could go above us if they beat Boro on March 11th but they'd also need to beat Manchester City the week before.

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Spijed » Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:26 pm

NRC wrote:I've searched but can't find the data, but I'd love to see the points gained by the teams in positions 16-20 10 games out. I suspect the increase in points-per-game earned is material. In other words extrapolation doesn't work as it doesn't take into account the increased "effort" impact of fewer games remaining so survival becomes more desperate, which leads to the better PPG
But as some teams gain points other will drop them.

As for this increased "effort" impact it somehow passed us by the two previous times! :)

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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:10 pm

A good day for the mighty clarets

Sunderland -3.......29
Palace -3.............29
Hull -3................30
Boro -2................32

And with Leicester playing at Swansea one will fall by 3 to 31 or both fall by 2 to 32 and that's a minimum. Should we get something against Chelsea they will fall further.
Happy days
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Vince Fontaine » Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:23 pm

And they fall further

Sunderland -1 ......28
Palace. -1............28
Hull. -1...............29
Leicester -4.........30
Boro -1...............31
Swansea -1..........32

So that's 3 teams under 30 at the 25 match point.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17

Post by Goddy » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:39 pm

So, after 20 games the magic number for 18th in the league was 46. After 25 games that number is now 29.

As I've said earlier, we're reducing the magic numbers by around 3 points per game throughout the season. For the last 5 games the reduction has been 3.4 per game. Continue at the same rate and we should be safe around game 34.....in theory!!

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