aggi wrote:I completely forgot that I updated the magic numbers spreadsheet a few weeks ago for the Premier League.
At the moment I've hidden the extrapolated tables based on 6 & 10 matches as they're a bit meaningless.
Usual caveats apply, it's a theoretical total for each team individually, it doesn't take into account teams playing each other.
Link is here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Magic Numbers - 2016/17
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
And they drop a little more
Sunderland -3.........37
Crystal palace -3.....38
Middlesboro -3........42
Come on you clarets!!!!
UTC
Sunderland -3.........37
Crystal palace -3.....38
Middlesboro -3........42
Come on you clarets!!!!
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
is that the maximum points they can get ?
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
No it's the number of points we need on top of our current points total to finish above them.Vegas Claret wrote:is that the maximum points they can get ?
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
....assuming each of those 3 clubs get max points from every single one of their remaining games....Caernarfon_Claret wrote:No it's the number of points we need on top of our current points total to finish above them.
I've not checked if they play each other, if so the max will come down a little more - but the "magic numbers" model can't factor that in, only the assumption of 3 points a game.
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Looking very nice - love how quickly it seema to be dropping !!! No doubt with half a season to go most thoae below will have to play each other again and that gives us a certain drop in required points...... Cant wait to check bak in a few weeks.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Without wishing to sound negative we also have to play them near the bottom so a bad result will hugely alter thingsbfccrazy wrote:Looking very nice - love how quickly it seema to be dropping !!! No doubt with half a season to go most thoae below will have to play each other again and that gives us a certain drop in required points...... Cant wait to check bak in a few weeks.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
It will but we currently hae a kind of 4 game window on relegation with 10 points (it'd take us 4 losses and 18th to win 4 along with those above them to also win) for us to be caught up.Andreshotboots wrote:Without wishing to sound negative we also have to play them near the bottom so a bad result will hugely alter things
Each game they play each other means another team that HAS to drop points below us meaning one of those 4 games they have to catch us up is gone. Pretty soon (as long as we dont capitulate and lose every game) there will be teams that will drop points and have minimal games left to actually close the gap.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
When they play each other: one drops 3 points or they both drop 2 points.
When they play us it could be a 6 point swing. Take care of business we'll be OK.
When they play us it could be a 6 point swing. Take care of business we'll be OK.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Simultaneous posting, bfccrazy.
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
We have to play 6 out of the 7 bottom teams away from home!Andreshotboots wrote:Without wishing to sound negative we also have to play them near the bottom so a bad result will hugely alter things
Plus Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton.
Easy!
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Having had a quick look, there aren't many, if any seasons, where the teams in the relegation places have got 16 points or less after 22 matches (assuming Hull don't get anything away at Chelsea).
Ten points clear with 16 matches to go is a very healthy position to be in - assuming we don't get anything at Arsenal.
Ten points clear with 16 matches to go is a very healthy position to be in - assuming we don't get anything at Arsenal.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
This weekend was a big opportunity for those below us to make a move. They didnt. Another weekend gone. This 10 point gap remains. 16 match days to go.
If this was boxing we would be declared the winners this weekend irrespective of todays results.
If this was boxing we would be declared the winners this weekend irrespective of todays results.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
So I was saying earlier in the thread that the magic numbers were dropping by around 3 per game (against the team which was third bottom) for the first 20 games. Keeping this up would mean safety by game 35.
Well even after today's get-wrenching finish, the good news is that the magic numbers have dropped by a further 8 against third bottom in just two games (after the game 20 comprehensive update)!! Keep up this rate (a 4 point drop per game) and we would be safe in just a further 10 games!!!
Things really aren't as bad as we're probably all feeling right now. I full expect us to be safe with several games spare.
Keep the faith and UTC
Well even after today's get-wrenching finish, the good news is that the magic numbers have dropped by a further 8 against third bottom in just two games (after the game 20 comprehensive update)!! Keep up this rate (a 4 point drop per game) and we would be safe in just a further 10 games!!!
Things really aren't as bad as we're probably all feeling right now. I full expect us to be safe with several games spare.
Keep the faith and UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Hull-3......38
UTC
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Bump
Not updated yet but it's coming.
Bump
Not updated yet but it's coming.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Boro -5...........37
Swansea -3......37
Leicester -6.....37
Hull -3............35
Crystal palace-3.35
Sunderland -5.....32
And they all fall again
UTC
Swansea -3......37
Leicester -6.....37
Hull -3............35
Crystal palace-3.35
Sunderland -5.....32
And they all fall again
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
That may well come down further over the weekend.
Look at the next fixtures
Hull. Man Utd A (tomorrow ).
Liverpool H
Crystal palace v Sunderland
Spurs v boro
Man city v Swansea
Leicester v Man Utd
UTC
Look at the next fixtures
Hull. Man Utd A (tomorrow ).
Liverpool H
Crystal palace v Sunderland
Spurs v boro
Man city v Swansea
Leicester v Man Utd
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
3 wins would take us to 38 points.
between playing each other and playing the top sides I can't see 3 of the bottom 5 getting to 38.
1 game at a time.
between playing each other and playing the top sides I can't see 3 of the bottom 5 getting to 38.
1 game at a time.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Who needs pornhub eh....
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Ahhhhh...
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
So, after another 3 games since aggi posted the table (above) and the bottom 6 have magic numbers of;
Leicester 37
Boro 37
Swansea 37
Palace 35
Hull 33
S'Land 32
So the bottom 3 are still reducing at just over 3 points per game. We continue to appear to head towards safety after game 35 at the current rate ....even with the recent uplift in form in one or two of those bottom six. Remember, too, those bottom six will have to play each other so will mean those magic numbers will reduce anyhow whatever happens.
I get the 'one game at a time' brigade but things are inexorably (it seems) heading towards an outcome where it's looking increasingly likely that we stay up. In fact (magic numbers or not), given the fact that no-one's been relegated with 40 points we could even be safe (albeit not quite mathematically) after just 4 more games!!
Leicester 37
Boro 37
Swansea 37
Palace 35
Hull 33
S'Land 32
So the bottom 3 are still reducing at just over 3 points per game. We continue to appear to head towards safety after game 35 at the current rate ....even with the recent uplift in form in one or two of those bottom six. Remember, too, those bottom six will have to play each other so will mean those magic numbers will reduce anyhow whatever happens.
I get the 'one game at a time' brigade but things are inexorably (it seems) heading towards an outcome where it's looking increasingly likely that we stay up. In fact (magic numbers or not), given the fact that no-one's been relegated with 40 points we could even be safe (albeit not quite mathematically) after just 4 more games!!
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Man city v Swansea
City seem to be doing better now they have a Holy Man.
City seem to be doing better now they have a Holy Man.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
I think it's three teams who have been relegated with 40 points or more in Prem history. Not this season though, top teams getting too many points for that.
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
If you take the results of the last fourteen matches of the bottom six and take them forward you get the following for the remaining games:
Sunderland 17 pts would give them 36 at the end of the season
Palace 8 pts = 27
Hull 13 pts = 33
Swansea 16 pts = 37
Boro 11 pts = 32
Leicester 9 pts = 30
This is presuming Man U & Man City win today!
Sunderland 17 pts would give them 36 at the end of the season
Palace 8 pts = 27
Hull 13 pts = 33
Swansea 16 pts = 37
Boro 11 pts = 32
Leicester 9 pts = 30
This is presuming Man U & Man City win today!
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Another round of matches and some still come down
Boro -3.............34
Leicester -3........34
Swansea -3.........34
Palace -3............32
UTC
Boro -3.............34
Leicester -3........34
Swansea -3.........34
Palace -3............32
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
We could have 3 teams under thirty after next weekend even if we get beat
Hull
Palace and
Sunderland
Just looked at their fixtures
Arsenal v Hull
Boro v Everton
Stoke v palace
Sunderland v Southampton
Swansea v Leicester
Looking good
UTC
Hull
Palace and
Sunderland
Just looked at their fixtures
Arsenal v Hull
Boro v Everton
Stoke v palace
Sunderland v Southampton
Swansea v Leicester
Looking good
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Never happens like that though spiked - don't bottom teams almost always improve their PPG records in the last 10 games?Spijed wrote:If you take the results of the last fourteen matches of the bottom six and take them forward you get the following for the remaining games:
Sunderland 17 pts would give them 36 at the end of the season
Palace 8 pts = 27
Hull 13 pts = 33
Swansea 16 pts = 37
Boro 11 pts = 32
Leicester 9 pts = 30
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
I suspect at the least both Sunderland and Swansea will win next weekend
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
That's true, but some teams will also end up with less points per game. That's why having six teams at the bottom makes our position far better.NRC wrote:Never happens like that though spiked - don't bottom teams almost always improve their PPG records in the last 10 games?
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
It'd be interesting to see how many of those below us play each other again yet too which would show how many matches of interest yo our safety are left where a team involved is guaranteed to drop points.Spijed wrote:That's true, but some teams will also end up with less points per game. That's why having six teams at the bottom makes our position far better.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
It is interesting. Very complicated and probably meaningless until with, say, eight games to go but very interesting.
Boro HOME v Sunderland AWAY v Swansea, Palace, Hull.
Leicester HOME v Sunderland, Hull. AWAY v Swansea, Palace.
Hull HOME v Sunderland, Swansea. Boro. AWAY v Palace, Leicester.
Palace HOME v Boro, Hull, Leicester. AWAY = none.
Swansea HOME v Leicester, Boro. AWAY v Sunderland, Hull.
Sunderland HOME v Swansea. AWAY v Boro, Leicester, Hull.
Palace, shocking at home at the moment, don't play any rivals away - or, in other words, face sides well above them away.
And, for the record,
BFC HOME v none AWAY v Hull, Swansea, Sunderland, Boro, Palace.
Boro HOME v Sunderland AWAY v Swansea, Palace, Hull.
Leicester HOME v Sunderland, Hull. AWAY v Swansea, Palace.
Hull HOME v Sunderland, Swansea. Boro. AWAY v Palace, Leicester.
Palace HOME v Boro, Hull, Leicester. AWAY = none.
Swansea HOME v Leicester, Boro. AWAY v Sunderland, Hull.
Sunderland HOME v Swansea. AWAY v Boro, Leicester, Hull.
Palace, shocking at home at the moment, don't play any rivals away - or, in other words, face sides well above them away.
And, for the record,
BFC HOME v none AWAY v Hull, Swansea, Sunderland, Boro, Palace.
Last edited by evensteadiereddie on Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
In addition to those remaining fixtures the final day of the season sees the following:-
Sunderland at Chelsea: Crystal Palace at Manchester United: Hull home to Spurs: Middlesbrough at Liverpool and Leicester home to Bournemouth
It could be a very interesting last day, hopefully our interest will be from afar
Sunderland at Chelsea: Crystal Palace at Manchester United: Hull home to Spurs: Middlesbrough at Liverpool and Leicester home to Bournemouth
It could be a very interesting last day, hopefully our interest will be from afar
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
12/02
Swansea v Leicester
25/02
Palace v boro
Hull v Burnley
04/03
Leicester v Hull
Swansea v Burnley
11/03
Hull v Swansea
Boro v Sunderland
18/03
Sunderland v Burnley
01/04
Swansea v Boro
04/04
Hull v Boro
Leicester v Sunderland
08/04
Boro v Burnley
15/04
Palace v Leicester
29/04
Palace v Burnley
06/05
Hull v Sunderland
13/05
Palace v Hull
Sunderland v Swansea
So there is something to keep us interested up until the last weekend. The numbers will come down as both teams can't win!!
UTC
Swansea v Leicester
25/02
Palace v boro
Hull v Burnley
04/03
Leicester v Hull
Swansea v Burnley
11/03
Hull v Swansea
Boro v Sunderland
18/03
Sunderland v Burnley
01/04
Swansea v Boro
04/04
Hull v Boro
Leicester v Sunderland
08/04
Boro v Burnley
15/04
Palace v Leicester
29/04
Palace v Burnley
06/05
Hull v Sunderland
13/05
Palace v Hull
Sunderland v Swansea
So there is something to keep us interested up until the last weekend. The numbers will come down as both teams can't win!!
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Although we are away to most of our potentially so-called relegation rivals, it really is in our hands. Any win or wins from those five should get us over the line with a bit to spare.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
I know that the magic numbers are not speculative, but let's just suppose that each team wins there home matches but loses their away matches. The magic numbers would be affected like thisevensteadiereddie wrote:It is interesting. Very complicated and probably meaningless until with, say, eight games to go but very interesting.
Boro HOME v Sunderland AWAY v Swansea, Palace, Hull.
Leicester HOME v Sunderland, Hull. AWAY v Swansea, Palace.
Hull HOME v Sunderland, Swansea. Boro. AWAY v Palace, Leicester.
Palace HOME v Boro, Hull, Leicester. AWAY = none.
Swansea HOME v Leicester, Boro. AWAY v Sunderland, Hull.
Sunderland HOME v Swansea. AWAY v Boro, Leicester, Hull.
Palace, shocking at home at the moment, don't play any rivals away - or, in other words, face sides well above them away.
And, for the record,
BFC HOME v none AWAY v Hull, Swansea, Sunderland, Boro, Palace.
Boro -9
Leicester. -6
Hull-6
Swansea -6
Sunderland-9
Palace 0
Of course if all were draws that would be better overall for us as
Boro -8
Leicester -8
Hull -10
Palace -6
Swansea -8
Sunderland -8
It will be interesting to say the least
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
i really envy those who can grasp all this, I was **** at maths, , still am.
it appears from the comments underneath all the gobbledegook numbers, that we are in a half decent poistion ? i think.
it appears from the comments underneath all the gobbledegook numbers, that we are in a half decent poistion ? i think.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Yes, basically, unless most of the teams below us go win crazy, three wins would most likely do it.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Love the Magic Numbers although I am with Wile E Coyote on fully understanding it lol.
UTC
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
3 wins is easy surely !! we can open the champagne now .
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
Same here but this helpedWile E Coyote wrote:i really envy those who can grasp all this, I was **** at maths, , still am.
it appears from the comments underneath all the gobbledegook numbers, that we are in a half decent poistion ? i think.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_(sports)
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
thanks Vegas, checked the link, sad to admit it made it look moe impenetrable.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
evensteadiereddie has it right here above...evensteadiereddie wrote:It is interesting. Very complicated and probably meaningless until with, say, eight games to go but very interesting.
Boro HOME v Sunderland AWAY v Swansea, Palace, Hull.
Leicester HOME v Sunderland, Hull. AWAY v Swansea, Palace.
Hull HOME v Sunderland, Swansea. Boro. AWAY v Palace, Leicester.
Palace HOME v Boro, Hull, Leicester. AWAY = none.
Swansea HOME v Leicester, Boro. AWAY v Sunderland, Hull.
Sunderland HOME v Swansea. AWAY v Boro, Leicester, Hull.
Palace, shocking at home at the moment, don't play any rivals away - or, in other words, face sides well above them away.
And, for the record,
BFC HOME v none AWAY v Hull, Swansea, Sunderland, Boro, Palace.
These are the games that will very most likely set and decide the lower table order.
Currently each of these games is worth 6 points (3 each team) in the magic numbers. Only 3 points, maybe 1 point each, can be taken in each of these fixtures. So it's going to get twitchy for a few teams if they lose a few of the games listed above.
As for us with, this in mind - even an away point at each of the 5 teams to play is not a bad result as it hurts their chances more than ours. However I think we will take 3 points from at least 2 of these games.
UTC
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
I must admit that I don't find the magic numbers as interesting as the extrapolated form tables (although it will obviously become more interesting as teams head to zero).
It has occurred to me though that these may not be quite accurate. What we're showing at the moment is the points to be level with us. I think to be strictly accurate 1 should be added to the magic number so as to reflect the position where teams can't catch us at all.
The alternative is that the magic number reflects the current goal difference (i.e. if they have a better goal difference than Burnley 1 is added to the magic number, if it is worse then it stays the same). I'm not sure if this is a good idea as goal difference is a reflection of the current rather than final position.
It has occurred to me though that these may not be quite accurate. What we're showing at the moment is the points to be level with us. I think to be strictly accurate 1 should be added to the magic number so as to reflect the position where teams can't catch us at all.
The alternative is that the magic number reflects the current goal difference (i.e. if they have a better goal difference than Burnley 1 is added to the magic number, if it is worse then it stays the same). I'm not sure if this is a good idea as goal difference is a reflection of the current rather than final position.
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
I've searched but can't find the data, but I'd love to see the points gained by the teams in positions 16-20 10 games out. I suspect the increase in points-per-game earned is material. In other words extrapolation doesn't work as it doesn't take into account the increased "effort" impact of fewer games remaining so survival becomes more desperate, which leads to the better PPG
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
During the promotion season I did a thread entitled something like "We'll be in the top two until..." I did think of doing a "We're out of the bottom 3 until..." but it just doesn't seem the same as the difference between the points available and points gained are so much different.
Currently we're out of the bottom 3 until March 11th as Leicester, Swansea and Hull can't all win as they play each other in the next three games.
This of course assumes that we get 0 points from our games against Chelsea, Hull and Swansea.
Leicester could go above us on March 4th if they beat Swansea away and then Liverpool and Hull at home.
Swansea could go above us if they beat Leicester at home and Chelsea away and then beat us on March 4th.
Hull could catch us on March 4th but that would mean beating Arsenal and Leicester away (and us getting no points including the game against them).
Palace could go above us on March 11th if they win their next three and beat Spurs at home on the 11th.
Sunderland could go above us if they beat Boro on March 11th but they'd also need to beat Manchester City the week before.
Currently we're out of the bottom 3 until March 11th as Leicester, Swansea and Hull can't all win as they play each other in the next three games.
This of course assumes that we get 0 points from our games against Chelsea, Hull and Swansea.
Leicester could go above us on March 4th if they beat Swansea away and then Liverpool and Hull at home.
Swansea could go above us if they beat Leicester at home and Chelsea away and then beat us on March 4th.
Hull could catch us on March 4th but that would mean beating Arsenal and Leicester away (and us getting no points including the game against them).
Palace could go above us on March 11th if they win their next three and beat Spurs at home on the 11th.
Sunderland could go above us if they beat Boro on March 11th but they'd also need to beat Manchester City the week before.
Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
But as some teams gain points other will drop them.NRC wrote:I've searched but can't find the data, but I'd love to see the points gained by the teams in positions 16-20 10 games out. I suspect the increase in points-per-game earned is material. In other words extrapolation doesn't work as it doesn't take into account the increased "effort" impact of fewer games remaining so survival becomes more desperate, which leads to the better PPG
As for this increased "effort" impact it somehow passed us by the two previous times!
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
A good day for the mighty clarets
Sunderland -3.......29
Palace -3.............29
Hull -3................30
Boro -2................32
And with Leicester playing at Swansea one will fall by 3 to 31 or both fall by 2 to 32 and that's a minimum. Should we get something against Chelsea they will fall further.
Happy days
UTC
Sunderland -3.......29
Palace -3.............29
Hull -3................30
Boro -2................32
And with Leicester playing at Swansea one will fall by 3 to 31 or both fall by 2 to 32 and that's a minimum. Should we get something against Chelsea they will fall further.
Happy days
UTC
This user liked this post: evensteadiereddie
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
And they fall further
Sunderland -1 ......28
Palace. -1............28
Hull. -1...............29
Leicester -4.........30
Boro -1...............31
Swansea -1..........32
So that's 3 teams under 30 at the 25 match point.
UTC
Sunderland -1 ......28
Palace. -1............28
Hull. -1...............29
Leicester -4.........30
Boro -1...............31
Swansea -1..........32
So that's 3 teams under 30 at the 25 match point.
UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers - 2016/17
So, after 20 games the magic number for 18th in the league was 46. After 25 games that number is now 29.
As I've said earlier, we're reducing the magic numbers by around 3 points per game throughout the season. For the last 5 games the reduction has been 3.4 per game. Continue at the same rate and we should be safe around game 34.....in theory!!
As I've said earlier, we're reducing the magic numbers by around 3 points per game throughout the season. For the last 5 games the reduction has been 3.4 per game. Continue at the same rate and we should be safe around game 34.....in theory!!