Magic Numbers - 2016/17

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:20 pm

I completely forgot that I updated the magic numbers spreadsheet a few weeks ago for the Premier League.

At the moment I've hidden the extrapolated tables based on 6 & 10 matches as they're a bit meaningless.

Usual caveats apply, it's a theoretical total for each team individually, it doesn't take into account teams playing each other.

Link is here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Garnerssoap · Post by **Garnerssoap** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:37 pm

Bit optimistic

MrTopTier · Post by **MrTopTier** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:43 pm

Quality, you should also put in an automatic explanation of how it works, when the inevitable question arises.

minnieclaret · Post by **minnieclaret** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:39 pm

Not altogether sure but if Burnley are starting with 108 doesn't that mean we beat everybody we've yet to play twice. Therefore their magic number should have come down by 6 not 3?
Cheers for starting it up again.

Claretmatt4 · Post by **Claretmatt4** » Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:42 pm

Garnerssoap wrote:Bit optimistic

Not really.

We simply have to reduce 3 teams to zero instead of 23!

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Sep 18, 2016 2:25 pm

bump

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:25 pm

Now that we've all played more than 6 games I've reinstated the extrapolated table based on the form in the last 6 games. Nothing on there is particularly interesting at the moment given that we're only a few games into the season.

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:58 pm

Yes !!!

I've missed this !!!

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:15 pm

Good work aggi

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MDWat · Post by **MDWat** » Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:57 pm

Nice work guys.

Commy · Post by **Commy** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 12:47 am

Has this been forgotten. I like it when we are doing well.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:45 am

ŽižkovClaret · Post by **ŽižkovClaret** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:43 am

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:47 am

Now that we've played more than 10 games I've added back the extrapolated position based on the last 10 matches as well.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:23 am

I tried to copy and paste the table after 10 matches but because I'm an IT numbskull I can't. One of you clever IT types couldn't do it could you then we can see how quickly/slowly the magic numbers reduce as the season progresses and we can reference back.
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aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:18 pm

That's probably due to the table all being made up of formulae. If you copy it and then when you want to paste, right click, choose paste special and values only.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:06 pm

I took a screenshot on my I pad after 10 matches and wanted to post that. It's in my photos and allows me to copy it but not to paste it. Like I said I've not got much idea when it comes to IT stuff. Any ideas?
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JimmyRobbo · Post by **JimmyRobbo** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:07 pm

It's a great document.

Thanks.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:09 pm

: IMG_0089.PNG (260.15 KiB) Viewed 11120 times

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:09 pm

Managed it!!!!!!
After 10 matches so we can reference back.
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aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:58 pm

If I remember I'll try and copy it into a new tab every 5 weeks.

There's a good chance I won't remember though (the spreadsheet updates itself without me doing anything) so it will probably be wise to bump it at that point.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:25 am

Week 15 has been copied to a new tab.

We're still doing OK, although those teams that were doing really badly down the bottom end of the table like Sunderland, Swansea and Hull have improved their form somewhat compared to the first 10 games.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:49 pm

: IMG_0097.PNG (277.26 KiB) Viewed 10812 times

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:01 pm

5 matches on and Sunderland have dropped by 12
Hull By 16
Swansea by 14
West Ham by 18
Middlesbrough by 16
Crystal Palace by 17
Our next 5 matches are against
West Ham
Tottenham
Middlesbrough
Sunderland and
Man City

IF we can avoid defeat against West Ham Middlesbrough and Sunderland we should be on track for a point a match and their numbers will have reduced further, wins against these three and half way through the season we'll be well ahead of where we need to be!!!
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Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:03 pm

First up - many thanks for those doing this.

A couple of observations;

1. Those previously doing really badly are still doing really badly in spite of any upturn in form. After 10 games we were 4 points above third from bottom and now we are 5 points above that position.
2. I'm (pleasantly) surprised about how quickly the magic numbers have come down. Teams like Hull dropping 16 points nearer to the 'magic' zero!!
3. Surprised, too about the form table and the fact that even teams like Everton (in theory) could get sucked into a relegation battle if they aren't careful.
4. On whatever basis you look, according to those extrapolations and form tables, it looks as though as low as 35 points might be enough. (Still would prefer nailed on safety of 38-40 points, mind).

I don't wish to get complacent but all this does give cause for hope/optimism about our achieving safety(although ask me again after tomorrow night's game, perhaps!)

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:20 pm

Goddy wrote:First up - many thanks for those doing this.

A couple of observations;

1. Those previously doing really badly are still doing really badly in spite of any upturn in form. After 10 games we were 4 points above third from bottom and now we are 5 points above that position.
2. I'm (pleasantly) surprised about how quickly the magic numbers have come down. Teams like Hull dropping 16 points nearer to the 'magic' zero!!
3. Surprised, too about the form table and the fact that even teams like Everton (in theory) could get sucked into a relegation battle if they aren't careful.
4. On whatever basis you look, according to those extrapolations and form tables, it looks as though as low as 35 points might be enough. (Still would prefer nailed on safety of 38-40 points, mind).

I don't wish to get complacent but all this does give cause for hope/optimism about our achieving safety(although ask me again after tomorrow night's game, perhaps!)

We are certainly capable of getting 5 wins out of our remaining 10 home matches. That leaves one extra win and a few draws.

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:32 pm

Be intersting to see this after the next 5 games.... I know the magic numbers cannot calculate which teams are playing each other but if we have a favourable run the next 5 - the magic numbers could look very very nice after our game with City.

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:13 pm

10 points knocked off in last 3 games and a potential to "knock 6" off Sunderland this week too....looking good going into the new year !!

RalphCoatesComb · Post by **RalphCoatesComb** » Tue Dec 27, 2016 5:20 am

Excellent work but you may need to add the Fat Sam factor for Palace.

RalphCoatesComb · Post by **RalphCoatesComb** » Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:03 pm

Anyone done the "REALLY MAGIC NUMBERS" - the ones that show SuBo and his bunch of underachievers getting relegated?

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:21 pm

Hull minus another 2
Now on 50 so that's 64 in 19 matches.
Let's see where we are half way through the season
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minnieclaret · Post by **minnieclaret** » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:15 pm

aggi wrote:If I remember I'll try and copy it into a new tab every 5 weeks.

There's a good chance I won't remember though (the spreadsheet updates itself without me doing anything) so it will probably be wise to bump it at that point.

Hi Aggi, if the doc. is updating constantly is there any way you can share it's link so we can peruse whenever?

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:42 pm

minnieclaret wrote:Hi Aggi, if the doc. is updating constantly is there any way you can share it's link so we can peruse whenever?

It's the link in the first post.

minnieclaret · Post by **minnieclaret** » Sat Dec 31, 2016 12:21 am

aggi wrote:It's the link in the first post.

Cheers, it's a while since I looked at post 1.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:42 pm

That's 3 teams with less than 50 points left.
Sunderland. 48
Hull 47
Swansea. 46
The best of the bottom 3 have decreased by 66 points (114-48=66) that's 23 from us and 43 from them, so if the bottom three show the same form in the second half of the season I make that 2 wins and we should be safe!!!

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minnieclaret · Post by **minnieclaret** » Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:46 am

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Aggis' link from post 1.

CharlieinNewMexico · Post by **CharlieinNewMexico** » Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:13 am

i've tried to understand this for 3 seasons and never can (even though I read all the how to's you post), which is weird because I do in baseball!

So going on the current link, am I right in saying that if we get 48 points we are guaranteed to be ahead of Sunderland?

Caernarfon_Claret · Post by **Caernarfon_Claret** » Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:38 am

CharlieinNewMexico wrote:i've tried to understand this for 3 seasons and never can (even though I read all the how to's you post), which is weird because I do in baseball!

So going on the current link, am I right in saying that if we get 48 points we are guaranteed to be ahead of Sunderland?

If we get another 48 points (as in finish with 71 points) - this goes down by a maximum of 6 points per game (If we win and they lose)

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:04 pm

Bump
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aggi · Post by **aggi** » Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:36 pm

Week 20 now snapshotted

: Capture.JPG (109.78 KiB) Viewed 9481 times

Claretmatt4 · Post by **Claretmatt4** » Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:23 pm

Interesting. Shows how the form of the bottom five has tailed off lately as their 10 game projections are higher than their six game.

Shows how well we've done lately too

Goddy · Post by **Goddy** » Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:38 pm

So, it looks like over the course of the last five games, certainly, and averaged over the last 10 games, the magic numbers drop by just over 3 points per game for us against those in the bottom 3 in the table.

If things continue in the same vein for the rest of the season, then it looks like we should be safe after game 35.

Here's hoping...but might be a useful indicator to see if we keep this 3 points per game drop for those sad enough to be interested, like me!

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:45 am

Commy · Post by **Commy** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:45 am

Bump

minnieclaret · Post by **minnieclaret** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:53 am

The current table after another successful weekend.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... s/htmlview" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:01 am

Over the past 6 matches we've only affected the magic numbers by 9 points. The rest, 15 points in the case of the bottom 3, have been through their results. Looking at their next 6 or so fixtures, and if we manage another 9 points out of our next 6 matches, we could see their numbers down to the mid teens. That would be 8 matches left. It's hard to see where their points are going to come from.
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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:08 am

Spijed wrote:We are certainly capable of getting 5 wins out of our remaining 10 home matches. That leaves one extra win and a few draws.

We've won three so another two wins and we'll not be far off.
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Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:58 am

Next 6 matches for the bottom teams
Hull
Chelsea-away
Man Utd -away
Liverpool -home
Arsenal- away
Burnley - home
Leicester - away

Swansea
Liverpool - away
Southampton - home
Man City - away
Leicester - home
Chelsea - away
Burnley - home

Sunderland

West Brom -away
Spurs - home
Palace - away
Southampton - home
Everton -away
Man City - home
Boro - away
7th match Burnley home

If we lose against Hull and they don't win any of the other 5 their magic number will be down to 25 and that is with us losing the next 6 matches. Should we pick up 2 wins and beat them they will be down to 13 with 10 match still to play.
Let's say Swansea win three including against us and we lose all 6 their magic number will be down to 31. However should we pick up 2 wins and beat them, assuming they win 2,their magic number will be down to 19.
I can see Sunderland only winning one of their next 6, so if we lose our next 6 their magic number will be 25. If we've won just 2 it will be down to 19 with their next match against us and only 9 matches left after that.
I think if we manage to beat these three and win one more we'll be safe with Up to 6 matches left.
Happy days.
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IndigoLake · Post by **IndigoLake** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:19 am

Hull are in serious trouble with those fixtures.

Vince Fontaine · Post by **Vince Fontaine** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:07 pm

Crystal Palace

Everton - home
Bournemouth - away
Sunderland - home
Stoke - away
Boro - home
West Brom - away

Whilst these look easier they will, if they win, be reducing the other teams magic number.

Middlesbrough
West Ham - home
West Brom - home
Spurs - away
Everton - home
Palace - away
Stoke - away
Again easier but will be reducing those below us if they win.

Leicester
Southampton- away
Burnley - away
Man Utd - home
Swansea - away
Liverpool - home ( after a midweek trip to Sevilla )
Hull - home

If we can pick 3 points up against them they would be doing us a favour if they beat Swansea and Hull. Can't see them picking many more points up in the other 3 matches.
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