Brexit: The Naked Truth

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:45 pm

If it be your will wrote:I'm not sure the Irish border even matters much anymore, considering Combatclaret's YouGov poll. The Tory membership want out, come what may. Even if it destroys their own party, it seems. Staggering.


It has to matter though.

We can't even pretend that 100,000 Conservative members dictating UK policy is democratic, and you'd hope even the Conservative MPs get that.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby If it be your will » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:52 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:It has to matter though.

We can't even pretend that 100,000 Conservative members dictating UK policy is democratic, and you'd hope even the Conservative MPs get that.

It'll be a real test, that's for sure. Tory MPs know, with a high degree of certainty, that most of them will not be MPs much longer if they don't deliver hard Brexit. The Conservative Party might even cease to exist.

For remainer Tory MPs, it will come down to how much they want to be MPs. They will not survive at the local level if they show any resistance to hard Brexit. This is a fascinating moment for the UK, that's for sure.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:56 pm

More on Boris Johnsons Brexit proposals

Needless to say, there be trouble ahead!

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status ... 9722910722

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:56 pm

It's on a par with putting a poll on here with the question "would you want Sean Dyche to be Burnley manager next season if it meant the re-signing of Lukas Jutkiewicz, the appointment of Venky's, and relegation? People wouldn't take the question seriously.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby aggi » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:01 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:The EU are already changing aren't they?

Irish border had to be hard apparently but reports are they're looking at tech to avoid it....


That's no change from what has always been the case. The border has never had to be hard, it's just that the technology doesn't yet exist to avoid it.

Obviously there's a weird contradiction in that a lot of pro-Brexit people are convinced that the technology does exist but not convinced enough to sign up to the backstop (which wouldn't apply if the technology did exist).

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:08 pm

aggi wrote:That's no change from what has always been the case. The border has never had to be hard, it's just that the technology doesn't yet exist to avoid it.

Obviously there's a weird contradiction in that a lot of pro-Brexit people are convinced that the technology does exist but not convinced enough to sign up to the backstop (which wouldn't apply if the technology did exist).

There's the even weirder contradiction that there aren't any rules about what has to be checked at the border or elsewhere, but remainers are confident that the technology doesn't exist to follow those rules.

The "backstop" exists until the EU says it ends. Would you be willing to sign up to any sort of deal where there is no mechanism for you to end the contract except by relying on the good nature of the other party - an other party who is determined to make you suffer?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:15 pm

dsr wrote:There's the even weirder contradiction that there aren't any rules about what has to be checked at the border or elsewhere, but remainers are confident that the technology doesn't exist to follow those rules.

The "backstop" exists until the EU says it ends. Would you be willing to sign up to any sort of deal where there is no mechanism for you to end the contract except by relying on the good nature of the other party - an other party who is determined to make you suffer?


We've been here before.

NI gets an exceptional, unique deal under this. Far better than an EU member state.

There is no reason for your theory, unless of course you know that the tech won't exist in two years (which we all know it won't)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby aggi » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:15 pm

dsr wrote:There's the even weirder contradiction that there aren't any rules about what has to be checked at the border or elsewhere, but remainers are confident that the technology doesn't exist to follow those rules.

The "backstop" exists until the EU says it ends. Would you be willing to sign up to any sort of deal where there is no mechanism for you to end the contract except by relying on the good nature of the other party - an other party who is determined to make you suffer?


As I said, the lack of confidence of confidence from Brexit supporters, and the ability to say what that technology actually is, makes it easy to believe it doesn't exist.

The "backstop" exists until the EU says it ends isn't true. It exists until both parties says it ends.

Would you be willing to sign up to any sort of deal where there is no mechanism for you to end the contract except by relying on the good nature of the other party - an other party who is determined to make you suffer? The EU seems to be. Personally I don't think the EU would really want us around longer than possible.

Ultimately though we're going to have to eventually sort out a trade deal with the EU. I'd prefer us to do it whilst our economy isn't taking a hit from No Deal so we don't end up desperately grabbing whatever they offer us.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby summitclaret » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:19 pm

[quote="aggi"]That's no change from what has always been the case. The border has never had to be hard, it's just that the technology doesn't yet exist to avoid it.

Obviously there's a weird contradiction in that a lot of pro-Brexit people are convinced that the technology does exist but not convinced enough to sign up to the backstop (which wouldn't apply if the technology did exist).[

That's because like me they don't trust the EU to agree anything as they have no real incentive to do so.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby martin_p » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:24 pm

summitclaret wrote:


Except the EU isn’t the one not agreeing to anything at the moment, it’s us.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lancasterclaret » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:26 pm

summitclaret wrote:


They need us more than we need them?

Three. Years. Of. This.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby If it be your will » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:28 pm

aggi wrote:As I said, the lack of confidence of confidence from Brexit supporters, and the ability to say what that technology actually is, makes it easy to believe it doesn't exist.

The "backstop" exists until the EU says it ends isn't true. It exists until both parties says it ends.

Would you be willing to sign up to any sort of deal where there is no mechanism for you to end the contract except by relying on the good nature of the other party - an other party who is determined to make you suffer? The EU seems to be. Personally I don't think the EU would really want us around longer than possible.

Ultimately though we're going to have to eventually sort out a trade deal with the EU. I'd prefer us to do it whilst our economy isn't taking a hit from No Deal so we don't end up desperately grabbing whatever they offer us.

I don't really get it. Other than the EU saying they won't, is there any rational reason why we can't negotiate everything now - future relations and the rest - without having to sign an agreement with no unilateral exit clause as an interim? What am I missing, here?
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby TVC15 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:43 pm

If it be your will wrote:I don't really get it. Other than the EU saying they won't, is there any rational reason why we can't negotiate everything now - future relations and the rest - without having to sign an agreement with no unilateral exit clause as an interim? What am I missing, here?


The other “than the EU saying they won’t” is quite a large other !

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:52 pm

If it be your will wrote:I don't really get it. Other than the EU saying they won't, is there any rational reason why we can't negotiate everything now - future relations and the rest - without having to sign an agreement with no unilateral exit clause as an interim? What am I missing, here?

That's one of the things from the first question tonight that I didn't get. Several of the candidates were saying that they would delay Brexit, if only by a day or two, if a deal was close. Why? Any deal is to determine the future relationship with the EU. What is the practical or theoretical difference between signing it on 1st November, the day after we are out; or on 1st November, after a day-long extension?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby martin_p » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:11 am

dsr wrote:That's one of the things from the first question tonight that I didn't get. Several of the candidates were saying that they would delay Brexit, if only by a day or two, if a deal was close. Why? Any deal is to determine the future relationship with the EU. What is the practical or theoretical difference between signing it on 1st November, the day after we are out; or on 1st November, after a day-long extension?


If we get an extension and leave with a deal we also get a transition period. If we crash out and do a deal a couple of days later there’ll be no transition and we’ll have ‘no deal Brexit’ until the practicalities of the deal can be implemented.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:08 pm

martin_p wrote:If we get an extension and leave with a deal we also get a transition period. If we crash out and do a deal a couple of days later there’ll be no transition and we’ll have ‘no deal Brexit’ until the practicalities of the deal can be implemented.

Why can't they have a transition period (which in practice they will) for the day or two that the deal is being agreed, and for the period while the deal kicks in? They have already agreed a 9-month transition period from March 19 to December 19 when everything carries on as before - of course that was superseded by the extension to October.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:16 pm

dsr wrote:Why can't they have a transition period (which in practice they will) for the day or two that the deal is being agreed, and for the period while the deal kicks in? They have already agreed a 9-month transition period from March 19 to December 19 when everything carries on as before - of course that was superseded by the extension to October.


if a deal is as close as that, then pretty sure something will be arranged.

if the deal is as far apart as it looks at the moment, then I'm pretty sure we crash out on Oct 31st or Parliament takes control and asks for more time. I can't see any circumstances where Parliament either revokes Article 50 or allows a "No Deal" to pass.

Which means either a General Election (which Boris might not survive) or a 2nd ref (which whatever the result he would)
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby martin_p » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:36 pm

dsr wrote:Why can't they have a transition period (which in practice they will) for the day or two that the deal is being agreed, and for the period while the deal kicks in? They have already agreed a 9-month transition period from March 19 to December 19 when everything carries on as before - of course that was superseded by the extension to October.


Because a transition period by its very nature depends upon there being a deal to transition to. If there's no deal by 31st October then it's crash out or an extension.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby tiger76 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:51 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:if a deal is as close as that, then pretty sure something will be arranged.

if the deal is as far apart as it looks at the moment, then I'm pretty sure we crash out on Oct 31st or Parliament takes control and asks for more time. I can't see any circumstances where Parliament either revokes Article 50 or allows a "No Deal" to pass.

Which means either a General Election (which Boris might not survive) or a 2nd ref (which whatever the result he would)


As things stand now,i strongly suspect the PM(persumably Boris) will have to get yet another extension,this won't please the ERG types,but unless something radically changes,i can't see how the WA as it's now penned will gain a majority,the NI backstop is the main stumbling block,but nobody really addressed the practicalities of how to keep an open border,technology was mentioned again,but there's huge question marks over it's viability at present.

I wouldn't rule out Article 50 being revoked but that would be the last resort,my best guess is we're heading for a 2nd referendum.that's certainly where Labour is destined for anyway https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/uk-times-corbyn-will-support-changing-brexit-policy-for-a-2nd-referendum-20190618

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:59 pm

tiger76 wrote:As things stand now,i strongly suspect the PM(persumably Boris) will have to get yet another extension,this won't please the ERG types,but unless something radically changes,i can't see how the WA as it's now penned will gain a majority,the NI backstop is the main stumbling block,but nobody really addressed the practicalities of how to keep an open border,technology was mentioned again,but there's huge question marks over it's viability at present.

I wouldn't rule out Article 50 being revoked but that would be the last resort,my best guess is we're heading for a 2nd referendum.that's certainly where Labour is destined for anyway https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/uk-times-corbyn-will-support-changing-brexit-policy-for-a-2nd-referendum-20190618


I can't see how Johnson can ask for an extension given what he's promised his backers.

He might, but then he's a dead man walking till the ERG get the man or woman who will do what they want them to do (backed overwhelmingly by the membership). The fact that it would be yet another slap in the face for democracy doesn't seem to bother them in the slightest.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Mala591 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:00 pm

New PMs strategy should be:

Go all out for a no deal exit then one week before the end of October DEMAND that the 27 EU leaders put a five year expiry date on the backstop.

The ball will then be in their court and I suspect that they choose the latter which will then be passed by parliament.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby martin_p » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:10 pm

Mala591 wrote:New PMs strategy should be:

Go all out for a no deal exit then one week before the end of October DEMAND that the 27 EU leaders put a five year expiry date on the backstop.

The ball will then be in their court and I suspect that they choose the latter which will then be passed by parliament.


Yes, that's all that's needed, DEMANDING in capitals.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby AndrewJB » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:06 pm

Raab on the BBC today said that if we leave with no deal, it'll be the EU's fault.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby martin_p » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:10 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Raab on the BBC today said that if we leave with no deal, it'll be the EU's fault.


The whole driving argument of Brexit is that everything is the fault of Europe and Europeans, no need for that to change now!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:10 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Raab on the BBC today said that if we leave with no deal, it'll be the EU's fault.

To be expected. People who think that May's deal is fair and reasonable to both sides, will think it's the UK's fault that it isn't signed; people who think that the deal is unfair and that the EU has made extortionate demands for political reasons, will think it's the EU's fault.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:13 pm

Mala591 wrote:New PMs strategy should be:

Go all out for a no deal exit then one week before the end of October DEMAND that the 27 EU leaders put a five year expiry date on the backstop.

The ball will then be in their court and I suspect that they choose the latter which will then be passed by parliament.

Apart from any other flaws in your strategy, there's absolutely no way that ERG types would vote for something that potentially tied us into the back stop for 5 years!

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby AndrewJB » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:39 pm

dsr wrote:To be expected. People who think that May's deal is fair and reasonable to both sides, will think it's the UK's fault that it isn't signed; people who think that the deal is unfair and that the EU has made extortionate demands for political reasons, will think it's the EU's fault.

I thought it was a bad deal too, but I would having voted to stay. Anyone wanting to leave with Theresa’s red lines in place could really expect nothing more. I’m sure you understand (apparently our government didn’t) that in leaving we can’t end up with all the good bits without any of the responsibility?

An aside - I have a near neighbour who voted to leave, and also has plans to retire to Spain. I enquirered as to how he squares that circle (some time back). Last week nd he told me that “Boris will sort it” When I pushed a little more, he said it was in Spain’s best interest to let U.K. pensioners live there because th y add to the economy, and don’t take the jobs of locals. I’m not sure who he’d spoken with to get this, but they’d told him I was playing project fear on him (I’m just another guy in the neighbourhood), so not to listen to me. When I asked him what will happen if he gets really sick, he told me the NHS would look after it, because he’s paid in all his life. What would be your advice to my neighbour?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:44 pm

AndrewJB wrote:I thought it was a bad deal too, but I would having voted to stay. Anyone wanting to leave with Theresa’s red lines in place could really expect nothing more. I’m sure you understand (apparently our government didn’t) that in leaving we can’t end up with all the good bits without any of the responsibility?

An aside - I have a near neighbour who voted to leave, and also has plans to retire to Spain. I enquirered as to how he squares that circle (some time back). Last week nd he told me that “Boris will sort it” When I pushed a little more, he said it was in Spain’s best interest to let U.K. pensioners live there because th y add to the economy, and don’t take the jobs of locals. I’m not sure who he’d spoken with to get this, but they’d told him I was playing project fear on him (I’m just another guy in the neighbourhood), so not to listen to me. When I asked him what will happen if he gets really sick, he told me the NHS would look after it, because he’s paid in all his life. What would be your advice to my neighbour?


I'd just shake him by the hand go "Pleased to meet you DSR"
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby AndrewJB » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:54 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I'd just shake him by the hand go "Pleased to meet you DSR"

He’s a nice chap though - I’m sure DSR is too - so I really don’t want to see him take a step that’ll hurt him and his wife, but then I don’t want to cause him undue stress either.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby CrosspoolClarets » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:57 pm

AndrewJB wrote:I’m sure you understand (apparently our government didn’t) that in leaving we can’t end up with all the good bits without any of the responsibility?


I saw this comment and it is a common one. Literally I suppose I agree with it, all and any are quite unequivocal words so yes, that would be unreasonable.

However, if we were to say “are we able to trade off many different things with each other for mutual benefit” that would not be unreasonable.

For examples we simply need to look at relations between two developed nations of varying sizes such as the USA and Canada, or Australia and New Zealand.

There are many examples where cooperation in various areas such as security happens independently from trade, and then when trade is looked at in isolation there are many quid pro quo’s without the smaller country staying within the orbit of the big one.

One example is that the US and Canada have mutually agreed in NAFTA that 75% of car parts must be made within the block. That clearly benefits the US. Does it cost Canada or Mexico much? Probably not. So it is not beyond the wit of man that the U.K. and the EU can agree a trade arrangement where both sides get plenty of what they want, with a standstill in the meantime. Unrelated stuff like the ECJ need not, and should not feature. The NAFTA line on regulation is “The Parties intend to maintain their respective central regulatory coordinating bodies, within their respective mandates and consistent with their law.”.

That’s why May’s deal was a shocker, and it need not have been. The EU simply saw her coming.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:03 pm

AndrewJB wrote:I thought it was a bad deal too, but I would having voted to stay. Anyone wanting to leave with Theresa’s red lines in place could really expect nothing more. I’m sure you understand (apparently our government didn’t) that in leaving we can’t end up with all the good bits without any of the responsibility?

An aside - I have a near neighbour who voted to leave, and also has plans to retire to Spain. I enquirered as to how he squares that circle (some time back). Last week nd he told me that “Boris will sort it” When I pushed a little more, he said it was in Spain’s best interest to let U.K. pensioners live there because th y add to the economy, and don’t take the jobs of locals. I’m not sure who he’d spoken with to get this, but they’d told him I was playing project fear on him (I’m just another guy in the neighbourhood), so not to listen to me. When I asked him what will happen if he gets really sick, he told me the NHS would look after it, because he’s paid in all his life. What would be your advice to my neighbour?

Go for it. There's no point spending the last few years of your life just waiting to die. If they need long term treatment, they're right, the NHS will sort them. And they're also right, it is in Spain's best interests to have UK pensioners bringing their pensions into the country - they'll just need to see if the EHIC scheme is extended or whether he needs insurance; if he needs insurance, then he'll need to check his budget.

If he fancies life in the sun and is willing to risk having to come back and live in a basic nursing home when the money runs out, then go for it. There comes a time when "saving up for old age" is redundant.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Mala591 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:58 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Apart from any other flaws in your strategy, there's absolutely no way that ERG types would vote for something that potentially tied us into the back stop for 5 years!


5 years does seem a long time but it would be a 'necessary compromise' of what the ERG want (short expiry) and what the ROI want (no expiry) and it should be long enough for an acceptable electronic border solution to be developed.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:06 pm

dsr wrote:Go for it. There's no point spending the last few years of your life just waiting to die. If they need long term treatment, they're right, the NHS will sort them. And they're also right, it is in Spain's best interests to have UK pensioners bringing their pensions into the country - they'll just need to see if the EHIC scheme is extended or whether he needs insurance; if he needs insurance, then he'll need to check his budget.

If he fancies life in the sun and is willing to risk having to come back and live in a basic nursing home when the money runs out, then go for it. There comes a time when "saving up for old age" is redundant.


I have to admit to thinking the same as dsr on this one. When you get to the age where retirement is looming, then you really have to seize the chances you have.

Course, we'd all rather you thought slightly more about the future in things like voting but hey, people have earned the right to make they want.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:56 pm

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/statu ... 5835699200

18 Labour MPs basically saying they would vote for the withdrawal agreement if it comes up again.

Certainly increases the chances of the deal being passed, and backs up Rory Stewarts point in particular.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:56 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I have to admit to thinking the same as dsr on this one. When you get to the age where retirement is looming, then you really have to seize the chances you have.

Course, we'd all rather you thought slightly more about the future in things like voting but hey, people have earned the right to make they want.

I don't think anyone would disagree with that, but I think that the issue AndrewJB correctly alludes to is why on earth would you be a fanatical brexiteer, (to the extent of gambling on Johnson) when everything works really well as it is, (from the point of ex-pats living Spain I mean)?
Brexit already has the potential to open a big can of worms, but if Johnson shows his usual diplomacy in negotiations, then things could get much more complicated, or indeed tricky for people who permanently live out there. (Just ask Nazanin Z-Radcliffe)
Not to mention, of course, that I know couples who reside either permanently or for 6 months a year in EU countries, and they are quite concerned at the way their UK pension (paid in pounds sterling) has been eroded over the past 3 years, especially if they find that their EHIC is no longer valid and they have to start taking out additional health insurance.

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AndrewJB
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby AndrewJB » Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:06 pm

dsr wrote:Go for it. There's no point spending the last few years of your life just waiting to die. If they need long term treatment, they're right, the NHS will sort them. And they're also right, it is in Spain's best interests to have UK pensioners bringing their pensions into the country - they'll just need to see if the EHIC scheme is extended or whether he needs insurance; if he needs insurance, then he'll need to check his budget.

If he fancies life in the sun and is willing to risk having to come back and live in a basic nursing home when the money runs out, then go for it. There comes a time when "saving up for old age" is redundant.

A no deal Brexit ends free movement, and that had been my original head scratcher with my neighbour, as he’d said he didn’t want everyone being able to come here, yet he is planning to retire to Spain. It’s as though he doesn’t understand that things work both ways, and in the uncertainty of a no deal, EU citizens living here, and U.K. citizens living (or planning to) live there will face a lot of uncertainty. There’s no guarantee that the EHIC scheme will continue for us without a deal specifically extending it. There could also be constraints (as I’d like to see here) on non EU property rights. And if free movement is curtailed then their plans are completely scuppered.

What gets me with my neighbour is how he sees the issue. British people moving to Spain are expats, but people moving to Britain are immigrants. He would be adding to the Spanish economy, but people coming here are somehow a drain. He’s voted for my daughter’s future even though she’s staying here and he’s leaving. To be fair he’s never exactly said this, but it’s not hard for me to infer as he’s said people are traitors who think as I do without calling me one.

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dsr
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:57 pm

AndrewJB wrote:A no deal Brexit ends free movement, and that had been my original head scratcher with my neighbour, as he’d said he didn’t want everyone being able to come here, yet he is planning to retire to Spain. It’s as though he doesn’t understand that things work both ways, and in the uncertainty of a no deal, EU citizens living here, and U.K. citizens living (or planning to) live there will face a lot of uncertainty. There’s no guarantee that the EHIC scheme will continue for us without a deal specifically extending it. There could also be constraints (as I’d like to see here) on non EU property rights. And if free movement is curtailed then their plans are completely scuppered.

What gets me with my neighbour is how he sees the issue. British people moving to Spain are expats, but people moving to Britain are immigrants. He would be adding to the Spanish economy, but people coming here are somehow a drain. He’s voted for my daughter’s future even though she’s staying here and he’s leaving. To be fair he’s never exactly said this, but it’s not hard for me to infer as he’s said people are traitors who think as I do without calling me one.

It's certainly possible that Spain will say on a point of principle that they don't want UK pensioners coming over there and spending their pensions in Spain. They may also say, on the same principle, that they don't want UK tourists either, and perhaps impose extortionate visa charges on the UK to ensure that the tourists go elsewhere.

On the other hand, it's possible that they won't. The Spanish government is unlikely to look on large influxes of foreign currency into their economy as a bad thing, and will continue to welcome foreigners with guaranteed income to their shores just as they always did before they joined the EEC.

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CombatClaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby CombatClaret » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:41 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48699594

"Philip Hammond is set to warn that a no-deal Brexit would harm the British economy, devour a £26.6bn Brexit war chest, and risk the break-up of the UK."

"leadership candidates promised tax cuts and increased spending on public services.
However, a no-deal Brexit would mean that was not possible, and would also leave the UK economy "permanently smaller", Mr Hammond will say."

"I cannot imagine a Conservative and Unionist-led government, actively pursuing a no-deal Brexit; willing to risk the Union and our economic prosperity," he will say.

So as the survey shows they're going to damage the country & likely tear it apart in effort to enact something they can hardly be put into words anymore. In a process of which has morphed beyond any semblance of the easy deal, only positives, touted a few years ago.

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Imploding Turtle
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Imploding Turtle » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:46 am

CombatClaret wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48699594

"Philip Hammond is set to warn that a no-deal Brexit would harm the British economy, devour a £26.6bn Brexit war chest, and risk the break-up of the UK."

"leadership candidates promised tax cuts and increased spending on public services.
However, a no-deal Brexit would mean that was not possible, and would also leave the UK economy "permanently smaller", Mr Hammond will say."

"I cannot imagine a Conservative and Unionist-led government, actively pursuing a no-deal Brexit; willing to risk the Union and our economic prosperity," he will say.

So as the survey shows they're going to damage the country & likely tear it apart in effort to enact something they can hardly be put into words anymore. In a process of which has morphed beyond any semblance of the easy deal, only positives, touted a few years ago.



They're scam artists. Brazen liars who know their idiot members will peddle it anyway because that's their team doing the lying.

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tiger76
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby tiger76 » Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:44 am

CombatClaret wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48699594

"Philip Hammond is set to warn that a no-deal Brexit would harm the British economy, devour a £26.6bn Brexit war chest, and risk the break-up of the UK."

"leadership candidates promised tax cuts and increased spending on public services.
However, a no-deal Brexit would mean that was not possible, and would also leave the UK economy "permanently smaller", Mr Hammond will say."

"I cannot imagine a Conservative and Unionist-led government, actively pursuing a no-deal Brexit; willing to risk the Union and our economic prosperity," he will say.

So as the survey shows they're going to damage the country & likely tear it apart in effort to enact something they can hardly be put into words anymore. In a process of which has morphed beyond any semblance of the easy deal, only positives, touted a few years ago.


This should be a question posed to all the leadership candidates,i guess there stock answers would be that they're not pursuing a no-deal,but it clearly hasn't been discounted,as to the increased spending commitments and tax cuts,nobody can seriously believe all this twaddle,just for once be honest with the electorate we're not stupid,kudos to Javid he at least admitted he'd borrow more to fund his infrastructure spending.

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aggi
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby aggi » Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:50 pm

I don't know why but this amused me:

Image
Image
This user liked this post: nil_desperandum

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tiger76
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby tiger76 » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:49 pm

The usual fun and games in Brussels.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48706193

Surely the UK MEP'S can't be given a say in the future make-up of any EU institutions,that would be crazy.

I note controlling inward migration is on the agenda,shame it's taken them so long.

Also Barnier is being touted for Commission president by Emmanuel Macron,that would be reward for his stitching up of the UK i suppose.

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Bordeauxclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Bordeauxclaret » Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:54 am

aggi wrote:I don't know why but this amused me:

Image
Image


Imagine being that out of touch you don’t understand employers give you tools to do your job.
This user liked this post: Anonymous

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Mala591
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Mala591 » Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:48 am

IMO a no-deal Brexit will be avoided at the last minute (mid October) due to:

a. A significant number of Labour MPs get spooked and decide to support the withdrawal agreement

or

b. The EU get spooked and offer us a 5 year expiry on the backstop

So, the avoidance of a no-deal Brexit lies with Labour MPs or the EU. The conservative party will have surprisingly little influence over the situation.

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martin_p
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby martin_p » Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:53 am

Mala591 wrote:IMO a no-deal Brexit will be avoided at the last minute (mid October) due to:

a. A significant number of Labour MPs get spooked and decide to support the withdrawal agreement

or

b. The EU get spooked and offer us a 5 year expiry on the backstop

So, the avoidance of a no-deal Brexit lies with Labour MPs or the EU. The conservative party will have surprisingly little influence over the situation.


What withdrawal agreement? The one they’ve rejected three times already. There’s no way PM Johnson will put that to the house again in it’s current form.

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AndrewJB
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby AndrewJB » Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:30 am

dsr wrote:It's certainly possible that Spain will say on a point of principle that they don't want UK pensioners coming over there and spending their pensions in Spain. They may also say, on the same principle, that they don't want UK tourists either, and perhaps impose extortionate visa charges on the UK to ensure that the tourists go elsewhere.

On the other hand, it's possible that they won't. The Spanish government is unlikely to look on large influxes of foreign currency into their economy as a bad thing, and will continue to welcome foreigners with guaranteed income to their shores just as they always did before they joined the EEC.

I have some experience of this. In ‘98 I travelled from Gibraltar to Spain on a Canadian passport (my U.K. one had expired), and at that time Canada was in a fishing dispute with Spain. Nobody was rude to me, but I was told to wait in a chair for several hours until I was given quite an extensive interview. They don’t have to even bring in special rules.

I don’t know how much it would hit the Spanish economy to place restrictions on U.K. nationals, but they would be responding to a U.K. perhaps also acting against their own economic interests, so it’s not unlikely.

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elwaclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby elwaclaret » Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:46 pm

AndrewJB wrote:I have some experience of this. In ‘98 I travelled from Gibraltar to Spain on a Canadian passport (my U.K. one had expired), and at that time Canada was in a fishing dispute with Spain. Nobody was rude to me, but I was told to wait in a chair for several hours until I was given quite an extensive interview. They don’t have to even bring in special rules.

I don’t know how much it would hit the Spanish economy to place restrictions on U.K. nationals, but they would be responding to a U.K. perhaps also acting against their own economic interests, so it’s not unlikely.


I’d say it’s extremely unlikely. They need every tourist they can get. They have one of if not the worst youth unemployment levels in Europe, and Nationalists and separatists breathing down their necks... not a good time for Spain to be playing silly buggers... mind you a Falkland-esque war over Gibraltar might appeal to some.

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RingoMcCartney
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby RingoMcCartney » Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:07 pm

Boris Johnson has argument with girlfriend.

LBC Saturday 22nd June 2019.

Matt Frei (channel 4 anti brexit) show. Full hour based on Guardian (anti Brexit) hatchet job. First guest he interviews Dominic Grieve, (evangelically hysterically opposed to brexit)

You could not make it up!

Headlined should read

"Sinister , Anti democracy Establishment bring in lorry loads of top soil to make mountain out of mole Hill!!"

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Burnley Ace
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Burnley Ace » Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:40 pm

Only Ringo could describe an alleged DV incident, that police are called to, as a “mole hill” lol watch out Mrs Ringo - a bit of plate throwing, shouting and being grabbed is nothing to complain about!! Nowt wrong with a bit of a slap to keep em in line eh Ringo?

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RingoMcCartney
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby RingoMcCartney » Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:15 pm

Burnley Ace wrote:Only Ringo could describe an alleged DV incident, that police are called to, as a “mole hill” lol watch out Mrs Ringo - a bit of plate throwing, shouting and being grabbed is nothing to complain about!! Nowt wrong with a bit of a slap to keep em in line eh Ringo?


Go easy on the groundless insinuations please. I was describing the overblown, disproportionate reaction from the media to what the Guardian report said-

“Police attended and spoke to all occupants of the address, who were all safe and well. There were no offences or concerns apparent to the officers and there was no cause for police action,” a spokesperson said.

As making a mountain out of a mole hill.

Stop attempting to twist my words and say I was trivialising domestic violence. I clearly wasn't, and anyone with an ounce of common sense would have known it.

You can put your handful of mulch down now.

PS. The weathers brilliant so don't think I'm going to reply to any more of your poor taste cheap shots.


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