Next labour leader?

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aggi
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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by aggi » Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:49 pm

If it be your will wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:25 pm
If it's any of the staunch remainers, Labour will drift into irrelevance (again).

If I had the casting vote, I'd go for Lavery. He has a decent chance should RLB decide not to stand, and someone from the Corbyn wing simply has to stand, don't they? It would seem odd to hand Labour back to the centrists without even a contest. (If I was RLB's advisor, I'd advise her to wait until the leadership contest after this one.)
I'm not sure whether being a remainer will be that important. Realistically Brexit will be irreversible after the end of the month so it's going to be less of an issue (so long as whoever the leader is recognises that).

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by If it be your will » Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:06 pm

aggi wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:49 pm
I'm not sure whether being a remainer will be that important. Realistically Brexit will be irreversible after the end of the month so it's going to be less of an issue (so long as whoever the leader is recognises that).
It really shouldn't be, no. It's possible, but I just can't picture Starmer, Thornberry, Jess Phillips et al sincerely committing to - or even be able to explain - the advantages Brexit holds for the left. I can almost hear it now "Advantages? Advantages?? There aren't any bloody advantages!"

That's what Starmer & co will be thinking, too. I just can't quite grasp how that's going to work. That said, the next leader isn't going to be seriously electorally tested till 2024 anyway, by which time Brexit really will be a political irrelevance, because it'll be long since done. A staunch remainer leading Labour would just need to weather the next couple of years, I suppose.

But Lavery is well versed in all the anti-EU arguments. He might even be able to shape public opinion on it, and stop the whole thing becoming Boris's and Farage's baby.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by dermotdermot » Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:30 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:40 pm
KS would be a good bet to stand up to Boris, but in a one person one vote and the power of Momentum and the Unions isn't KS too far to the right of the party? The hard left and Momentum will want JC mark 2
The hard may well want that but they just might not get it. These 'members' were recruited so as to make sure a candidate from the left was elected. From what we hear today, i.e. a poll of the members indicating a fairly large majority in favour of Kier Starmer, they might face disappointment. As the vast majority of the members didn't actually want to leave Europe, they might just finally see how transparent Corbyn actually is. Everyone knows that he wanted to leave anyway and has done his best to camouflage this fact one way or another. He never campaigned to remain in the first place, as he was supposed to do, and has remained ambiguous ever since. I don't quite know how the maths work on this subject but it strikes me that with with the majority of the PLP and members voting for Kier Starmer, they might just be able to beat the joint forces of Momentum, McCluskey et all. Here's hoping so anyway. If this was to happen, and I'm starting to think it likely, it surely would be extremely ironic.
Last edited by dermotdermot on Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by If it be your will » Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:50 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:40 pm
KS would be a good bet to stand up to Boris, but in a one person one vote and the power of Momentum and the Unions isn't KS too far to the right of the party? The hard left and Momentum will want JC mark 2
I'm not convinced Starmer is the man to stand up to Boris. Lavery just might be, though! The pair looked reasonably close to punching each other by the end of this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPPyBLC5ddM

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Clarets4me » Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:14 am

I have no doubt Starmer has a QC's analytical mind, but he's another North London based middle class white male, his seat of Holborn & St Pancreas adjoins those of Jeremy Corbyn and Emily Thornberry ....
Whether he'll get enough votes from the PLP is not in question, but will he get the support of the CLP's, Unions and " registered supporters ", many of whom appear to be considerably to the left of him politically ? ...

Also in May, Labour are defending 58 local Councils .... if their vote share continues to decline, they may lose a raft of moderate Councillors all over the country. In Burnley, where Labour lost control last year, I can see another 3 or 4 of their Council seats being extremely vulnerable ..

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by aggi » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:23 am

Starmer would probably be a good choice in that you'd expect he'd be good at holding Johnson to account at PMQs and elsewhere. You don't get to be one of the best QCs in the country without a talent for detail and cross examination.

Given how shambolic the Tories have been in the past few years, Labour have really struggled to hold them to account and consistently highlight their flaws.

Whether people can look past the North London based middle class white male is an issue. On the other hand he was born into a working class family and has done very well for himself. If you're ruling out people who've been successful off their own bat then that's cutting down the talent pool a fair bit.

As an aside, it was interesting to see Dominic Cummings detailing in what he's looking for in candidates. "I don’t want confident public school bluffers. " seemed a bit pointed ...

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Colburn_Claret » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:26 am

dermotdermot wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:30 pm
The hard may well want that but they just might not get it. These 'members' were recruited so as to make sure a candidate from the left was elected. From what we hear today, i.e. a poll of the members indicating a fairly large majority in favour of Kier Starmer, they might face disappointment. As the vast majority of the members didn't actually want to leave Europe, they might just finally see how transparent Corbyn actually is. Everyone knows that he wanted to leave anyway and has done his best to camouflage this fact one way or another. He never campaigned to remain in the first place, as he was supposed to do, and has remained ambiguous ever since. I don't quite know how the maths work on this subject but it strikes me that with with the majority of the PLP and members voting for Kier Starmer, they might just be able to beat the joint forces of Momentum, McCluskey et all. Here's hoping so anyway. If this was to happen, and I'm starting to think it likely, it surely would be extremely ironic.
If they choose the same voting protocol as the last time, its rigged to favour the left. I went on the Hustings at Leeds when David Milliband stood. He was the stand out candidate. He led the field in ever round as one by one the losers left and their votes were transferred. Every single round until it was him or Ed, and the unions gave it to Ed.
It was legal, it was as proposed, but it just didn't sitvright with me that the best candidate can lead every round until the last one and miss out. The Labour party and the country could have been so different today if that one decision had been different.

This week they are discussing the rules for how the next leader will be elected, AND who will be eligible to vote. They can easily swing it to favour the left again. I don't think momentum have yet to acknowledge that they were the problem with the electorate, and like a dog with a bone wont give up easily.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:35 am

aggi wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:49 pm
I'm not sure whether being a remainer will be that important. Realistically Brexit will be irreversible after the end of the month so it's going to be less of an issue (so long as whoever the leader is recognises that).
If a new Labour leader pushes for a close trade deal with freedom of movement (or something close to it) that will lead to a Boris decade (because in 2024 voters will fear a renegotiation of whichever trade deal we have) - so it may not be about Brexit per se, but it is about what led to Brexit (the real reasons, not the reasons the Remain voters trot out).

Most voters won’t know who Starmer is, so he won’t be hung on his earlier stance, but he will have to show he understands blue collar Labour, and so far he looks like he doesn’t (as do Thornberry, Long Bailey and others). I’m not even convinced Phillips understands people like this.

Lavery is the only one who does (perhaps Nandy too) but Lavery is detested due to that miner’s pension fund thing, so that won’t play well either.

I am struggling to see a scenario where Labour are not totally goosed for the next decade.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by TheFamilyCat » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:56 am

Not really following it all to be honest but Hillary Benn's name seems conspicuous by its absence in all this.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by tiger76 » Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:46 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:56 am
Not really following it all to be honest but Hillary Benn's name seems conspicuous by its absence in all this.
Far too moderate for the Labour membership,he's also getting on in years,66 now so by the time of the next election he'll be in his 70's,he's alsp an avid remainer so i don't see how he could win back the lost red wall in the north.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by TheFamilyCat » Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:19 pm

Got to admit, I had no idea he was that old.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by thatdberight » Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:07 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:46 pm
Far too moderate for the Labour membership,he's also getting on in years,66 now so by the time of the next election he'll be in his 70's,he's alsp an avid remainer so i don't see how he could win back the lost red wall in the north.
Agree with your first point.
Age didn't stop Corbyn.
Disagree with your third. Benn is the sort of politician who carries himself in a way that part of the "working class" (hate the term) respect. He speaks properly, he feels like a senior politician. Starmer too. I'm not for either of them, RLB to take Labour further into the pit suits me but I think he would appeal to Labour's heartland as was (still is really - it's only one election).

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Vino blanco » Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:09 pm

I really hope Thornberry gets the job: I could do with a good laugh over the next couple of years.
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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by aggi » Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:39 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:35 am
If a new Labour leader pushes for a close trade deal with freedom of movement (or something close to it) that will lead to a Boris decade (because in 2024 voters will fear a renegotiation of whichever trade deal we have) - so it may not be about Brexit per se, but it is about what led to Brexit (the real reasons, not the reasons the Remain voters trot out).

Most voters won’t know who Starmer is, so he won’t be hung on his earlier stance, but he will have to show he understands blue collar Labour, and so far he looks like he doesn’t (as do Thornberry, Long Bailey and others). I’m not even convinced Phillips understands people like this.

Lavery is the only one who does (perhaps Nandy too) but Lavery is detested due to that miner’s pension fund thing, so that won’t play well either.

I am struggling to see a scenario where Labour are not totally goosed for the next decade.
Importantly though Labour won't have the votes to block anything. The lack of majority worked for Johnson in some ways because it meant that he could blame his own failure on other people. Going forward no-one is going to be able to say that Labour "blocked" Brexit, Labour won't have the power to do anything other than point out any mistakes that Johnson makes.

What would you say the "blue collar labour" position is beyond Brexit and Corbyn? Would you say that the Conservatives understand it beyond promising to get Brexit done? What Lavery would be offering is clearly a long way from what Johnson offers.

The main issue I can see the Conservatives having is if Brexit does cause the economic upheaval that was widely predicted. There's a pretty good chance that the first area that they'll cut back on spending will be those promises he made to the disaffected working class.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by AndrewJB » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:31 pm

aggi wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:39 pm
Importantly though Labour won't have the votes to block anything. The lack of majority worked for Johnson in some ways because it meant that he could blame his own failure on other people. Going forward no-one is going to be able to say that Labour "blocked" Brexit, Labour won't have the power to do anything other than point out any mistakes that Johnson makes.

What would you say the "blue collar labour" position is beyond Brexit and Corbyn? Would you say that the Conservatives understand it beyond promising to get Brexit done? What Lavery would be offering is clearly a long way from what Johnson offers.

The main issue I can see the Conservatives having is if Brexit does cause the economic upheaval that was widely predicted. There's a pretty good chance that the first area that they'll cut back on spending will be those promises he made to the disaffected working class.
I don't think the Tories will ever stop finding other people to blame for what goes wrong in this country. Their track record on it has been too successful. Overspending on poor people and the disabled - check! Migrants - check! The EU - check! I'm sure we'll see more on that one soon. I can almost hear Johnson now: "...but unfortunately the EU hasn't been playing ball, and hasn't accepted our very generous terms, and so for that reason I'm very sad to announce we'll be leaving on WTO terms at the end of this year." After that it could well be "ebola afflicted jihadi remainers"

I have to laugh as well at the idea that working class people will be put off by Keir Starmer because he's not working class. They must have missed that memo when they were voting Tory.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Clarets4me » Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:51 pm

Vino blanco wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:09 pm
I really hope Thornberry gets the job: I could do with a good laugh over the next couple of years.
In that case, if Diane Abbott gets the job, we may need to get you an ambulance when your sides split !!

When the definitive political history of the last decade is written, a special place will be reserved for Dame Margaret Beckett, who, with minutes to go, agreed to nominate Jeremy Corbyn for the 2015 Leadership contest, and pushed him over the 35 vote threshold from MP's, which allowed him to stand ... The normally sensible Frank Field, and the late Jo Cox, also did so. Mrs Beckett has since described her actions as " moronic " ... ;)

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Damo » Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:06 pm

I cant see Corbyn stepping down. The potential candidates to replace him are an absolute mess.
I can honestly see the tories doing whatever they like for at least 10 years

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by If it be your will » Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:43 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:31 pm
I don't think the Tories will ever stop finding other people to blame for what goes wrong in this country. Their track record on it has been too successful. Overspending on poor people and the disabled - check! Migrants - check! The EU - check! I'm sure we'll see more on that one soon. I can almost hear Johnson now: "...but unfortunately the EU hasn't been playing ball, and hasn't accepted our very generous terms, and so for that reason I'm very sad to announce we'll be leaving on WTO terms at the end of this year." After that it could well be "ebola afflicted jihadi remainers"

I have to laugh as well at the idea that working class people will be put off by Keir Starmer because he's not working class. They must have missed that memo when they were voting Tory.
Who would you like to lead Labour, out of interest?

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:24 am

aggi wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:39 pm
Importantly though Labour won't have the votes to block anything. The lack of majority worked for Johnson in some ways because it meant that he could blame his own failure on other people. Going forward no-one is going to be able to say that Labour "blocked" Brexit, Labour won't have the power to do anything other than point out any mistakes that Johnson makes.

What would you say the "blue collar labour" position is beyond Brexit and Corbyn? Would you say that the Conservatives understand it beyond promising to get Brexit done? What Lavery would be offering is clearly a long way from what Johnson offers.

The main issue I can see the Conservatives having is if Brexit does cause the economic upheaval that was widely predicted. There's a pretty good chance that the first area that they'll cut back on spending will be those promises he made to the disaffected working class.
The “blue collar labour” thing is social conservatism, love of country, belief in aspiration and opportunity, family, local industry etc.

Many Tories do not understand it but Johnson and Cummings do. Brexit was always a necessary first step but an irrelevance in many ways.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:44 am

If it be your will wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:43 pm
Who would you like to lead Labour, out of interest?
Whomever the members choose - it's not my party. What I can say with certainty is the next leader will come under relentless bombardment from the right wing press. Witness Damo above describing them all as "an absolute mess". No citation for that, and no reasons given why Johnson is better. Starmer (from what I've read) has already been attacked in the Sun for being "privileged" (he went to the same university as Johnson) - so they have no shame in what they say. I think on a different thread someone was praising the idea of Johnson introducing a universal basic income. This was the worst thing in all the world when Labour talked about it, but we can be sure to see it praised if Johnson (or more likely one of his advisers) decides that's what a Tory government will do.

Portugal is a great poster-country for anti-austerity: https://www.ft.com/content/66fccb1a-515 ... 9ef1626294 Merkel was said to be very much against them going in this direction, but it's worked. I think the Tories might go in this sort of direction (which will be good), however leaving the EU might curtail their ability to do so. It might be that Northern Rail goes back into public ownership again, and the idea of making our internet network infrastructure like our road network - free at point of use, and paid for through general revenues - carries some major pluses for economic growth. I would say our existing set up acts like a drag on our economy, so it might be another idea they pinch (and again the press will present it as being another part of the "Johnson Revolution"). If I sound jaded it's because he was my mayor for eight years. For you it could mean getting some of Corbyn's policies on a leave ticket. Win win.

What are your thoughts?

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by IanMcL » Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:56 am

I am a Yvette fan, although she was late waking up at the first Corbyn contest. If she is forthright from the off, she has a chance of taking the majority.

If not....yesterday's potential. Some candidates remind me of the young girl Libdem defeated leader. Just too young to be taken seriously.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by If it be your will » Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:16 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:44 am
Whomever the members choose - it's not my party. What I can say with certainty is the next leader will come under relentless bombardment from the right wing press. Witness Damo above describing them all as "an absolute mess". No citation for that, and no reasons given why Johnson is better. Starmer (from what I've read) has already been attacked in the Sun for being "privileged" (he went to the same university as Johnson) - so they have no shame in what they say. I think on a different thread someone was praising the idea of Johnson introducing a universal basic income. This was the worst thing in all the world when Labour talked about it, but we can be sure to see it praised if Johnson (or more likely one of his advisers) decides that's what a Tory government will do.

Portugal is a great poster-country for anti-austerity: https://www.ft.com/content/66fccb1a-515 ... 9ef1626294 Merkel was said to be very much against them going in this direction, but it's worked. I think the Tories might go in this sort of direction (which will be good), however leaving the EU might curtail their ability to do so. It might be that Northern Rail goes back into public ownership again, and the idea of making our internet network infrastructure like our road network - free at point of use, and paid for through general revenues - carries some major pluses for economic growth. I would say our existing set up acts like a drag on our economy, so it might be another idea they pinch (and again the press will present it as being another part of the "Johnson Revolution"). If I sound jaded it's because he was my mayor for eight years. For you it could mean getting some of Corbyn's policies on a leave ticket. Win win.

What are your thoughts?
It's tricky. Of the potential candidates I'd have Lavery, and hope that he was a 'tough' version of Corbyn - similar sort of manifesto to Corbyn but with a ruthlessness when required. I got tired of listening to Corbyn constantly trying to appease the centrists at the expense of those loyal to him (eventually manifesting as Labour's utterly suicidal Brexit stance).

Electorally I just don't know. If you have Yvette to please IanMcL, and drift back towards watery centrism, Labour will lose all the socialists like me. If you have Lavery, you lose all the centrists. I'm also intrigued by Graeber's take, too: that the 'left' comprises economic socialists, the 'working' class, and the 'administrative class' - the graduates in offices that work hard to avoid using gender specific terms, that sort of thing (the "Bullshit Jobs" class or 'The Guardian Party').

There is no candidate or direction that will unite all these groups, the latter two absolutely despise each other! Interestingly, the Tories do seem to be able to unite the vote of similarly disparate groups. How can PaulWaine, Crosspool, and Damo all end up voting the same way, despite having absolutely nothing in common?

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by tiger76 » Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:42 pm

So the runners & riders declared so far.

Emily Thornberry
Clive Lewis
Jess Phillips
Lisa Nandy

Keir Starmer & Rebecca-Long-Bailey expected to announce they're standing soon.

Apart from Nandy & Phillips all the others have a link to the failed Corbyn project,and all the baggage that this entails,i suspect out of that lot,Starmer and Long-Bailey will make it to the final 2,either would be a vast improvement on the current leader,but whether they could win a GE IDK,the advantage both would have over Corbyn is the Conservatives will be solely responsible for brexit,and if as many predict the economy worsens due to the UK exiting the EU,this should be an open goal for any decent leader of the opposition,also assuming the next GE isn't until 2024,going off previous history the public will be ready for a changing of the guard,however a lot depends how centrist the next Labour leader is allowed to go by the membership.it's a tricky balancing act keeping their more radical socialist membership on board,but somehow appealing to a majority of the country at the same time.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:33 pm

If it be your will wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:16 pm
It's tricky. Of the potential candidates I'd have Lavery, and hope that he was a 'tough' version of Corbyn - similar sort of manifesto to Corbyn but with a ruthlessness when required. I got tired of listening to Corbyn constantly trying to appease the centrists at the expense of those loyal to him (eventually manifesting as Labour's utterly suicidal Brexit stance).

Electorally I just don't know. If you have Yvette to please IanMcL, and drift back towards watery centrism, Labour will lose all the socialists like me. If you have Lavery, you lose all the centrists. I'm also intrigued by Graeber's take, too: that the 'left' comprises economic socialists, the 'working' class, and the 'administrative class' - the graduates in offices that work hard to avoid using gender specific terms, that sort of thing (the "Bullshit Jobs" class or 'The Guardian Party').

There is no candidate or direction that will unite all these groups, the latter two absolutely despise each other! Interestingly, the Tories do seem to be able to unite the vote of similarly disparate groups. How can PaulWaine, Crosspool, and Damo all end up voting the same way, despite having absolutely nothing in common?
I'm no great fan of marketing (the product is always more important than the packaging), but I can absolutely see how Labour failed at this in the last election. The manifesto was superb, and this is brought home by the fact the Tories had to focus on the cost, rather than saying; "nobody wants fast and free broadband". That such a manifesto commitment was announced as a surprise to many people is astonishing. They should have announced these things long before, and given voters the chance to digest what it all meant. The case for making broadband a public good, like roads or water (paid for by a low monthly charge, if not free at point of use) is so compelling (even from a purely business point of view) that I can easily imagine the Tories co-opting it. The same with taking back control of the railways. As the blogger AAV said, you couldn't sell these policies any worse than springing them on the electorate as though they were afterthoughts.

Money and the propagandist press are significant advantages for the Tories, but Labour's disunity undermined Corbyn just as much with the public. Having the rightwing press attack him constantly is one thing, but when senior Labour figures also claim he's unfit for office sealed his fate. If we think in terms of small steps this doesn't matter, because he's hammered the first few nails into the coffin of neo liberalism.

As for what will unite enough people to get them into power, it might prove to be hatred of the Tories.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Vino blanco » Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:51 pm

The manifesto was so superb, Andrew, it gave the Conservatives an 80 seat majority. I really do admire your allegiance to the socialist agenda currently espoused by your beloved Labour Party. Keep that red flag flying high, my friend.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by If it be your will » Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:59 pm

Vino blanco wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:51 pm
The manifesto was so superb, Andrew, it gave the Conservatives an 80 seat majority. I really do admire your allegiance to the socialist agenda currently espoused by your beloved Labour Party. Keep that red flag flying high, my friend.
AndrewJB and I barely agree on anything these days, but Brexit aside, I thought the 2019 manifesto was absolutely superb, too. In my view, it really was exactly what's required to begin to put the country back together and make it livable again. The status quo, after all, is totally unsustainable (and also pretty dreadful).

Whether such a manifesto can ever be electorally successful is another matter. Perhaps not.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Vino blanco » Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:47 pm

I'm glad you say "In my view" in your argument, because millions of other people didn't agree with "your view", hence the 80 seat majority.
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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:17 am

I will make my decision mostly on the debates, but at the moment, I'm most likely to back Lisa Nandy. Clean break with Corbyn, northern MP and not an arch remainer.

Vino blanco wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:51 pm
The manifesto was so superb, Andrew, it gave the Conservatives an 80 seat majority. I really do admire your allegiance to the socialist agenda currently espoused by your beloved Labour Party. Keep that red flag flying high, my friend.
Tories have had my wages stagnant for ten years and I'll never get a mortgage, while you're some retired boomer living it up in a holiday home in Spain. Jog on.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Nonayforever » Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:29 pm

Reading quite a few of the above posts, I'm struggling to understand how trying to find faults in Tory policy will help with the choosing of the next labour leader.
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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by charlyt » Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:21 pm

If Rebecca Long-Bailey gets voted in, Labour will be smashed again.
Whereas they might stand a chance if Keir Starmer becomes the leader with say Yvette Cooper as his deputy.
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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by KateR » Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:49 pm

I struggle with many comments on here regrading rationale for the next Labour leader. What exactly is the criteria to elect the Party Leader who will be in opposition for at least close to 5 years? Is it he has to be good at question time and try to make Boris look a fool for example, would you chose this candidate over others because it might be fun. For some I can see it be a leader who will be able to lay down road blocks, pass motions to delay Brexit negotiations beyond 2020, does anyone really want a hung HoC again, I thin quite a few. Is the manifesto of 2019 so important as to be part of the rationale for selecting a leader?

Or is it a leader who can come in and objectively look at the past, pinpoint areas for improvements, select a strong team around them and work diligently to get the party back in to shape that could not only get the traditional voters back who left but also attract others who might go one way or another.

It is not my party but some form of consensus needs to be fundamental to bring the party back from where it is today which is very clearly highly fragmented, left right and centre.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by BennyD » Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:49 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:33 pm
I'm no great fan of marketing (the product is always more important than the packaging), but I can absolutely see how Labour failed at this in the last election. The manifesto was superb, and this is brought home by the fact the Tories had to focus on the cost, rather than saying; "nobody wants fast and free broadband". That such a manifesto commitment was announced as a surprise to many people is astonishing. They should have announced these things long before, and given voters the chance to digest what it all meant. The case for making broadband a public good, like roads or water (paid for by a low monthly charge, if not free at point of use) is so compelling (even from a purely business point of view) that I can easily imagine the Tories co-opting it. The same with taking back control of the railways. As the blogger AAV said, you couldn't sell these policies any worse than springing them on the electorate as though they were afterthoughts.

Money and the propagandist press are significant advantages for the Tories, but Labour's disunity undermined Corbyn just as much with the public. Having the rightwing press attack him constantly is one thing, but when senior Labour figures also claim he's unfit for office sealed his fate. If we think in terms of small steps this doesn't matter, because he's hammered the first few nails into the coffin of neo liberalism.

As for what will unite enough people to get them into power, it might prove to be hatred of the Tories.
I applaud your ability to flog a dead horse. Such observations as ‘the manifesto was superb’ and, effectively, that the right wing press was responsible for undermining Corbyn are right up there. I guess you think that “the hatred for the Tories” was clearly demonstrated by the electorate in the recent General Election. As long as people as blinkered as you decide the leader and state policy, BJ will be cr4pping himself for his next 20 years in office. Long live Momentum, I think they’re ace.
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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by KateR » Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:06 pm

dead and should have been buried but some still worshipping at the dead horse, however I have I think glimpsed a few kicks from said horse, this in itself is a major stumbling block to actually taking the Labour party seriously in regard to future. Manifesto from Labour not worth the paper it was written on, this is an undisputable fact but when someone tells you it was superb they lose all credibility. I am looking forward to witnessing the long knives being out for the next few months and seeing who survived to take many forward in to the brave new world of Labour politics for the next ten years.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by aggi » Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:09 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:24 am
The “blue collar labour” thing is social conservatism, love of country, belief in aspiration and opportunity, family, local industry etc.

Many Tories do not understand it but Johnson and Cummings do. Brexit was always a necessary first step but an irrelevance in many ways.
I suspect this more be more that you've projected your ideals as the "blue collar labour" thing. It's very similar to the values you often refer to. Regardless of that I'm not sure whether Johnson really understands these things, particularly in comparison to someone like Starmer whose upbringing actually was blue collar labour.

I think the Tories have approached these values via good marketing rather than good policy.

Johnson certainly isn't a good advert for social conservatism and family if you look at his personal life and the love your country was just done by convincing people that Corbyn didn't love the country (although no-one can ever point to actual evidence to back this up).

Similarly with the aspiration and opportunity, tax breaks for those earning over £60k a year isn't going to be particularly beneficial to most blue collar workers but you can sell it as aspirational (whilst at the same time wealth inequality gets worse).

Some of his advisers, very possibly Cummings, may understand what the issues are but there isn't much evidence that they are really Johnson's priority.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:50 pm

BennyD wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:49 pm
I applaud your ability to flog a dead horse. Such observations as ‘the manifesto was superb’ and, effectively, that the right wing press was responsible for undermining Corbyn are right up there. I guess you think that “the hatred for the Tories” was clearly demonstrated by the electorate in the recent General Election. As long as people as blinkered as you decide the leader and state policy, BJ will be cr4pping himself for his next 20 years in office. Long live Momentum, I think they’re ace.
Easy there fella. In my opinion the Labour manifesto was excellent. Why would I change that opinion after the election reverse? In the week that our rail prices had an inflation busting rise, with as far as I can see no promise of improved service, the Germans have lowered theirs by ten percent to encourage fewer car journeys. Plenty of people on here saying they can’t rely on Northern Rail to get them to work each day. And how’s broadband going these days? Upgraded to carrier pigeon yet?

It’s utterly preposterous to suggest the rightwing press didn’t have an effect on the election. The content of the anti Corbyn rants on here are evidence enough, if you don’t have time to read any of the academic studies made on the subject.

But this is torytime now. Nobody to blame but themselves for how things pan out.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by dermotdermot » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:43 pm

charlyt wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:21 pm
If Rebecca Long-Bailey gets voted in, Labour will be smashed again.
Whereas they might stand a chance if Keir Starmer becomes the leader with say Yvette Cooper as his deputy.
Unfortunately that can't happen. Two separate contests. One for the leader, one for the deputy leader. If you think that the candidates for the leader are bad enough, just take a look at the candidates for the deputy leader. I've lost all faith. The Labour Party will just sleepwalk into oblivion over the next five years. Even if Kier Starmer was to win, he'd have no choice in the matter as to who, out of an absolute bunch of cretins, would be his deputy.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Right_winger » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:49 pm

Labours problem is that they have been taken over by the lunatic left which most people ( voters ) of the country do no align with.

Labours only chance is to pull back into the centre ground otherwise it will never be in the corridors of power until it ditches the extremists.
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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by NewClaret » Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:02 pm

Damo wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:06 pm
I cant see Corbyn stepping down. The potential candidates to replace him are an absolute mess.
I can honestly see the tories doing whatever they like for at least 10 years
If they keep electing socialists, which it seems they will, it’ll be more like 15-20.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by NewClaret » Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:09 pm

Right_winger wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:49 pm
Labours problem is that they have been taken over by the lunatic left which most people ( voters ) of the country do no align with.

Labours only chance is to pull back into the centre ground otherwise it will never be in the corridors of power until it ditches the extremists.
This.

I’ve just said something similar in a different way. Now that Corbyn has allowed Momentum to take over the party, and replaced all the moderate, centre-left Labour MP’s with hardline socialists, it will take generations to restore it to electable party. None of the current candidates are capable of doing it, and most don’t want to.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by dermotdermot » Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:23 pm

It’s just all so selfish and infantile. People in need of help will suffer and it won’t be the fault of a Conservative government, it will be on account of there being absolutely no credible opposition.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:27 pm

aggi wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:09 pm
I suspect this more be more that you've projected your ideals as the "blue collar labour" thing. It's very similar to the values you often refer to. Regardless of that I'm not sure whether Johnson really understands these things, particularly in comparison to someone like Starmer whose upbringing actually was blue collar labour.

I think the Tories have approached these values via good marketing rather than good policy.

Johnson certainly isn't a good advert for social conservatism and family if you look at his personal life and the love your country was just done by convincing people that Corbyn didn't love the country (although no-one can ever point to actual evidence to back this up).

Similarly with the aspiration and opportunity, tax breaks for those earning over £60k a year isn't going to be particularly beneficial to most blue collar workers but you can sell it as aspirational (whilst at the same time wealth inequality gets worse).

Some of his advisers, very possibly Cummings, may understand what the issues are but there isn't much evidence that they are really Johnson's priority.
You replied to this post twice but I missed the first one so fair dos.

I guess we will see whether Johnson is committed to blue collar workers but many of his new MPs are so there will be trouble at the mill if not. All I know is that I spoke to him once when he was running for leader and he persuaded me when I asked him, but if push came to shove he may feel he has to choose other priorities.

What is blue collar labour? Well, we all have our own prism. My family background no doubt affects my own idea of what it means. My Dad was a union shop steward. I was brought up with those conversations around the dinner table. One thing I am 100% sure about is that these areas are mainly socially conservative and all this metropolitan, woke, hyper-liberal virtue signalling is as far from blue collar as it gets, and Labour have embraced that way too much. Basically, to reference two classic related tweets of the day that cracked me up, blue collar workers are more Ricky Gervais than Stella McCartney.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by Wile E Coyote » Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:05 am

all lame ducks, labour sadly have nothing remotely viable as a potential opponent.
poor speakers, no obvious strengths. right now, they are hopeless.

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by dsr » Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:08 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:50 pm
Easy there fella. In my opinion the Labour manifesto was excellent. Why would I change that opinion after the election reverse? In the week that our rail prices had an inflation busting rise, with as far as I can see no promise of improved service, the Germans have lowered theirs by ten percent to encourage fewer car journeys. Plenty of people on here saying they can’t rely on Northern Rail to get them to work each day. And how’s broadband going these days? Upgraded to carrier pigeon yet?
24 days since the election, including the Christmas break, and you're criticising the government because they haven't yet provided fast broadband to all parts of the country? I presume that if Labour had won we would be already getting our free broadband and with refunds in the bank for those who had paid in advance. :roll:

Still, it's nice to see you paying tribute to the government for taking action on Northern Rail. Oh, wait - you weren't paying tribute to the government, you were just banging on about how everything is their fault and giving them no credit at all for the action already taken?

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:30 am

I was hoping for a Burgon led party with Lammy as his deputy sadly not going to happen

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by AndrewJB » Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:40 am

dsr wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:08 am
24 days since the election, including the Christmas break, and you're criticising the government because they haven't yet provided fast broadband to all parts of the country? I presume that if Labour had won we would be already getting our free broadband and with refunds in the bank for those who had paid in advance. :roll:

Still, it's nice to see you paying tribute to the government for taking action on Northern Rail. Oh, wait - you weren't paying tribute to the government, you were just banging on about how everything is their fault and giving them no credit at all for the action already taken?
Remind me what the governments plan was on broadband? Wasn’t it a vague promise to spend £5 Billion on upgrades? Will the public own a share of the network as a result of this investment? This is what we’ve voted for and what I’m complaining about. Crapper public services that cost the public a lot, and enrich the private operators. I’ve said upthread that the government looks to be likely to nationalise Northern Rail. Why campaign against Labour’s plan? Why wait so long? Why not nationalise the other railways too? The reasons for this is they are in power to serve the interests of the big money that funds them. The needs of the Russian oligarch (who donates to them) are always more urgent than thise of the ordinary British citizen.

And for the people banging on about”too much socialism” - worry not, because once the NHS has been sold off in a trade deal with the US, there won’t be much left anymore, and you can all get on living in your capitalist utopia.
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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:42 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:40 am
Remind me what the governments plan was on broadband? Wasn’t it a vague promise to spend £5 Billion on upgrades? Will the public own a share of the network as a result of this investment? This is what we’ve voted for and what I’m complaining about. Crapper public services that cost the public a lot, and enrich the private operators. I’ve said upthread that the government looks to be likely to nationalise Northern Rail. Why campaign against Labour’s plan? Why wait so long? Why not nationalise the other railways too? The reasons for this is they are in power to serve the interests of the big money that funds them. The needs of the Russian oligarch (who donates to them) are always more urgent than thise of the ordinary British citizen.

And for the people banging on about”too much socialism” - worry not, because once the NHS has been sold off in a trade deal with the US, there won’t be much left anymore, and you can all get on living in your capitalist utopia.
Had Labour got in nothing would have happened either as good old Jezza would probably have been in Iran representing the country at another tossers funeral
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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by SammyBoy » Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:52 pm


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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by KateR » Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:32 pm

Our Emily not doing as well as she thought, seems like a commanding lead for SKS, deputy one will be also interesting, most I have never heard of but then again that would be the same if it were the Tories.

I wonder how much influence does a deputy leader have, similar to the US VP I suppose. Do you elect like minded deputy's to the leader or is there benefit in having someone with opposite views, seems to me as if the party themselves select the deputy, where as in the US I believe the candidate for President selects his running mate, is this true?

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by AndrewJB » Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:52 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:42 am
Had Labour got in nothing would have happened either as good old Jezza would probably have been in Iran representing the country at another tossers funeral
Is that what the Sun told you to think?

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Re: Next labour leader?

Post by aggi » Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:45 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:27 pm
You replied to this post twice but I missed the first one so fair dos.

I guess we will see whether Johnson is committed to blue collar workers but many of his new MPs are so there will be trouble at the mill if not. All I know is that I spoke to him once when he was running for leader and he persuaded me when I asked him, but if push came to shove he may feel he has to choose other priorities.

What is blue collar labour? Well, we all have our own prism. My family background no doubt affects my own idea of what it means. My Dad was a union shop steward. I was brought up with those conversations around the dinner table. One thing I am 100% sure about is that these areas are mainly socially conservative and all this metropolitan, woke, hyper-liberal virtue signalling is as far from blue collar as it gets, and Labour have embraced that way too much. Basically, to reference two classic related tweets of the day that cracked me up, blue collar workers are more Ricky Gervais than Stella McCartney.
Don't worry, you didn't miss anything I only replied once (although I did have to check).

Ultimately we will see. You're as aware as I am that we've been coming from different places on this throughout. I'm judging Johnson on what he has (or often hasn't) done in the past whereas you're basing it on a personal experience and that judgement.

I'm not sure whether the "metropolitan, woke, hyper-liberal virtue signalling" is really a Labour thing. I don't think it was anything that Corbyn particularly brought up or the other leading lights (as they were). I'd say it's more of a generational thing and there is a stark age gap between the Tories and Labour membership (I also thing that it is hugely exaggerated and a few vocal people on social media have been taken to be representative of a whole generation).

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