Covid-19

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mdd2
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mdd2 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:06 pm

In all the years of flu going around I don’t know anyone who has been hospitalised and certainly not in intensive care.

Good Lowbank but it does happen and pregnant women can be badly affected by flu
Some get ARDS which it seems is what is happening to some of these coronavirus folk and is what kills them
If 60% of us were to get this and only 0.01% gets ARDS, that is a lot of work for ITU

Lowbankclaret
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:34 pm

Even the experts are getting worried about what I pointed out a day ago.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -fear.html

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:37 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:06 pm
In all the years of flu going around I don’t know anyone who has been hospitalised and certainly not in intensive care.

Good Lowbank but it does happen and pregnant women can be badly affected by flu
Some get ARDS which it seems is what is happening to some of these coronavirus folk and is what kills them
If 60% of us were to get this and only 0.01% gets ARDS, that is a lot of work for ITU
It’s me who is being accused of over reacting and apparently predicting an apocalypse, which I have never said.

I just look at the data and suggest this is way more severe than flu.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:02 am

I suspect the true picture in China is far worse than is being reported.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:23 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:06 pm
In all the years of flu going around I don’t know anyone who has been hospitalised and certainly not in intensive care.

Good Lowbank but it does happen and pregnant women can be badly affected by flu
Some get ARDS which it seems is what is happening to some of these coronavirus folk and is what kills them
If 60% of us were to get this and only 0.01% gets ARDS, that is a lot of work for ITU
Purely out of boredom, I've just had a go at working this out (it's a bold thing to do because I might have made a silly mistake somewhere, and it must not in any way be seen as a prediction of what I think will actually happen, or in any way be seen as 'stressing' or 'spreading false rumours', it is just an academic exercise and no more, based entirely on the question posed in the quoted post, and I welcome any counter analysis):

If 40,000,000 in the UK get this, spread out perfectly evenly over 150 days, and 0.01% get ARDS requiring HDU/ICU care, and their length of stay is an average of 14 days, then I reckon at any point in such atheoretical epidemic, 373 NHS ICU/HDU beds will be taken up by coronovirus patients. This is just under 10% of the total high dependency capacity of the NHS.

Better hope it's not 0.1% rather than 0.01% then! (Official data seems to suggest it's actually about 20%, though it surely can't be this high.)
Last edited by If it be your will on Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

thatdberight
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:28 am

If it be your will wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:23 am
Purely out of boredom, I've just had a go at working this out (it's a bold thing to do because I might have made a silly mistake somewhere, and it must not in any way be seen as a prediction of what I think will actually happen, or in any way be seen as 'stressing' or 'spreading false rumours', it is just an academic exercise and no more, and I welcome any counter analysis):

If 40,000,000 in the UK get this, spread out perfectly evenly over 150 days, and 0.01% get ARDS requiring HDU/ICU care, and their length of stay is an average of 14 days, then I reckon at any point in such atheoretical epidemic, 373 NHS ICU/HDU beds will be taken up by coronovirus patients. This is just under 10% of the total high dependency capacity of the NHS.

Better hope it's not 0.1% rather than 0.01% then! (Official data seems to suggest it's actually about 20%, though it surely can't be this high.)
I counter that by suggesting that 0.01% is an entirely made up number with no basis. I'll go 99.9% or 0.00001% instead if we're just making numbers up.

Oh, and official data doesn't suggest 20%, unless it's misinterpreted by our usual suspect.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:32 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:28 am
I counter that by suggesting that 0.01% is an entirely made up number with no basis. I'll go 99.9% or 0.00001% instead if we're just making numbers up.

Oh, and official data doesn't suggest 20%, unless it's misinterpreted by our usual suspect.
Oh my God! I have a go at answering a purely theoretical point posed by someone else and you jump down my throat within 2 minutes!

(The 20% was based on the data of how many are being recorded as 'serious or critical'. I've no idea what that precisely means either.)

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:38 am

If it be your will wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:32 am
Oh my God! I have a go at answering a purely theoretical point posed by someone else and you jump down my throat within 2 minutes!

(The 20% was based on the data of how many are being recorded as 'serious or critical'. I've no idea what that precisely means either.)
You said counters were welcome.

OK, then. I'll put it another way. What credibility does the 0.01% have in your view? What's its source? Why's it an appropriate number to base your calcs on?

The 20% continues to ignore the likely (that's experts talking, not me) very large number of mild cases that go unnoticed. That's why it's bunkum.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:43 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:38 am
You said counters were welcome.

OK, then. I'll put it another way. What credibility does the 0.01% have in your view? What's its source? Why's it an appropriate number to base your calcs on?

The 20% continues to ignore the likely (that's experts talking, not me) very large number of mild cases that go unnoticed. That's why it's bunkum.
None whatsoever. I just thought, having been presented with that number, it would be vaguely interesting to see what the impact would be if it turned out to be right, that's all.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Siddo » Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:05 am

Last night in Bangkok before we set off for home.
No panic or overreaction here at all.
Taxi drivers still not wearing masks, and we didn't see anyone wearing one in Koh Lanta. However, our internal flight to Bangkok was almost exclusively filled by Europeans, and they were mostly wearing masks.
I'm not 100% sure of the number of people affected here, but the government seem to have it in perspective. As I posted before, around 40 cases in a country of 70 million, and the majority of those are Chinese visitors.
No sense of panic, everyone just going about their normal business.
However, I have not been able to log in here for a few days and it seems like the UK is worried, and news channels and uk papers seem to be suggesting a potential epidemic in GB. Hope not, but it seems a hell of a lot calmer here, on China's doorstep than in the UK which is thousands of miles away.
What a win yesterday. Saw Dwight,s goal. Champions league next season?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:59 am

I really do not understand the Asian penchant for wearing masks in these situations. Don't people over there realise how small germs and viruses are? Obviously people can still breathe normally wearing masks, and if you can breathe in air, you will still breath in any germs or viruses. It makes no sense at all to me.

This whole outbreak needs putting into some sort of perspective. Normal Flu kills 650,000 people worldwide every year, including 10,000 each year in the UK alone. No one panics about that, so why are people panicking about Covid-19? Most normally healthy people appear to be recoving in the same way as flu victims. Still, I suppose it sells newspapers which is all the publishers care about.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:18 am

If 60% of the UK population get the death rate is 1% thats 400,000 deaths over here.

That is very worrying

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:31 am

If it be your will wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:23 am
Purely out of boredom, I've just had a go at working this out (it's a bold thing to do because I might have made a silly mistake somewhere, and it must not in any way be seen as a prediction of what I think will actually happen, or in any way be seen as 'stressing' or 'spreading false rumours', it is just an academic exercise and no more, based entirely on the question posed in the quoted post, and I welcome any counter analysis):

If 40,000,000 in the UK get this, spread out perfectly evenly over 150 days, and 0.01% get ARDS requiring HDU/ICU care, and their length of stay is an average of 14 days, then I reckon at any point in such atheoretical epidemic, 373 NHS ICU/HDU beds will be taken up by coronovirus patients. This is just under 10% of the total high dependency capacity of the NHS.

Better hope it's not 0.1% rather than 0.01% then! (Official data seems to suggest it's actually about 20%, though it surely can't be this high.)
A super example of why many people don’t post anything on social media, within seconds you were attacked in a very strong and unwarranted manner.
I thought it was very interesting and the use of a base value in tenths means is easy to scale the data .
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:42 am

I find the main issue is not being able to trust the official numbers coming out of China.

I wouldnt be surprised if the real numbers infected are in the millions and 1,000’s of bodies being burnt daily,
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:42 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:28 am
I counter that by suggesting that 0.01% is an entirely made up number with no basis. I'll go 99.9% or 0.00001% instead if we're just making numbers up.

Oh, and official data doesn't suggest 20%, unless it's misinterpreted by our usual suspect.
The official data is just that official data.

You do however only want to believe speculation and predictions. Interestingly you then attack someone who uses a number you disagree with.

I am not sure who makes the comment further down the thread that the 20% is invalid because there are loads of cases going unreported. I also disagree with that, I think I read that 7,000 have been tested in the UK.

The people on the ship were being tested nearly daily, or are you suggesting the test is flawed?



The other point I would make on that is, if there are thousands of people wandering around with it in a mild form, they will be spreading it all around the world and we will have a pandemic on our hands.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:44 am

paulatky wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:42 am
I find the main issue is not being able to trust the official numbers coming out of China.

I wouldnt be surprised if the real numbers infected are in the millions and 1,000’s of bodies being burnt daily,
I hope you have a suitable tin hat!!!!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:48 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:31 am
A super example of why many people don’t post anything on social media, within seconds you were attacked in a very strong and unwarranted manner.
I thought it was very interesting and the use of a base value in tenths means is easy to scale the data .
It was warranted. Making up a stat is just nonsense. It's not as unhinged as nearly everything you've had to say about this topic but it is nonsense.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:53 am

paulatky wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:18 am
If 60% of the UK population get the death rate is 1% thats 400,000 deaths over here.

That is very worrying
That's a number that's been doing the rounds for a little while from one of this country's leading experts (who, perhaps surprisingly, doesn't post on here).

But then I see you've joined the ranks of the conspiracy theorists. LowBankClaret believed/believes that it's all a Chinese government plot to kill their own people so no wonder they're hiding the evidence.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:59 am

Siddo wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:05 am
Champions league next season?
Just our luck. We finally qualify and CoVid-19 reduces Europe to a few subsistence farmers kicking a pig's bladder.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:24 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:53 am
That's a number that's been doing the rounds for a little while from one of this country's leading experts (who, perhaps surprisingly, doesn't post on here.

I’v seen those numbers from different sources so I think they are very credible.

What is certain is that self isolation is not going to solve the problem

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:35 am

paulatky wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:42 am
I find the main issue is not being able to trust the official numbers coming out of China.

I wouldnt be surprised if the real numbers infected are in the millions and 1,000’s of bodies being burnt daily,
Bang on, the day the doctor died letting the truth out & how the authority’s dealt with that before & after, at that moment for me anyway it became impossible to believe anything what the Chinese had to say. It shows the desperation to pretend everything’s ok & understate pretty much anything bad.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:49 am

Jakubclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:35 am
Bang on, the day the doctor died letting the truth out & how the authority’s dealt with that before & after, at that moment for me anyway it became impossible to believe anything what the Chinese had to say. It shows the desperation to pretend everything’s ok & understate pretty much anything bad.
Sorry, you're saying it's "bang on" that thousands of bodies are being burned daily to mask the size of the problem?

I'm just checking you're agreeing with that.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:01 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:49 am
Sorry, you're saying it's "bang on" that thousands of bodies are being burned daily to mask the size of the problem?

I'm just checking you're agreeing with that.
I agreed with the general content mainly we can’t take any credence from the Chinese figures without being specific, the thousands of bodies being incinerated was a tad hyperbole, some may disagree after the doctors death & the way they do things anything’s possible, who really knows for sure.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by KellyClaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:11 am

2 dead out of 79 infected in Italy?

Can anyone give reasons as to why this is nothing to worry about?

Or is it time to start stocking up on water and tinned food?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:18 am

KellyClaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:11 am
2 dead out of 79 infected in Italy?

Can anyone give reasons as to why this is nothing to worry about?

Or is it time to start stocking up on water and tinned food?
I think all flights to China from the UK now should be 1 way if at all, until all this sorted out, you go there but it’s at your own risk & you are not coming back until you can prove you are clear. If people want to visit these countries & chance there arm I don’t see why the uk taxpayers should be footing the bill organising flights back & quarantine, if you can’t hack it don’t back it.
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ecc
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ecc » Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:29 pm

They're taking it very seriously in Italy. Four Serie A matches postponed today
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:31 pm

ecc wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:29 pm
They're taking it very seriously in Italy. Four Serie A matches postponed today
Quite right to be taking it seriously.
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paulatky
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:37 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:31 pm
Quite right to be taking it seriously.
We should be closing our borders now,

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by bfcjg » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:43 pm

I think the authorities are working desperately to get a vaccine sorted . The death rate is highest amongst older people it would be devastating if it got into care homes etc.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:48 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:43 pm
I think the authorities are working desperately to get a vaccine sorted
18 months at the very least according to the people working on a vaccine. Phase 1 is due to start in April.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Goalposts » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:57 pm

umm i've started to write something 3 times now, and stopped myself as this virus will do what its gonna do until a vaccine is released.

it would be prudent for people to prepare for self isolation and to have enough food and drink. In addition those services that are considered essential to the maintainence of effective govt received there preparedness backs yesterday, this will probably leak into the press in a soft way next week

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:58 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:37 pm
We should be closing our borders now,
Seriously, I said. Not like lunatics.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:59 pm

Goalposts wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:57 pm
it would be prudent for people to prepare for self isolation and to have enough food and drink. In addition those services that are considered essential to the maintainence of effective govt received there preparedness backs yesterday, this will probably leak into the press in a soft way next week
Tell me more.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:20 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:58 pm
Seriously, I said. Not like lunatics.
2 dead out of 75 infected in Italy is a frightening statistic.

Were they Italians or people who had travelled from China.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:33 pm

paulatky wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:20 pm
2 dead out of 75 infected in Italy is a frightening statistic.

Were they Italians or people who had travelled from China.
2 out of 3 by some people's preferred measure.

I haven't seen an update on the likely outcome from people who know what they're talking about since the estimate of c.2% of cases from the WHO.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:30 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:31 am
A super example of why many people don’t post anything on social media, within seconds you were attacked in a very strong and unwarranted manner.
I thought it was very interesting and the use of a base value in tenths means is easy to scale the data .
I know! It doesn't seem to matter however many caveats you put into a post, or however strongly you stress that you're just attempting to solve a purely hypothetical puzzle, the "Don't Panic! It's only like flu!" brigade immediately fly off the handle!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:34 pm

If it be your will wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:30 pm
I know! It doesn't seem to matter however many caveats you put into a post, or however strongly you stress that you're just attempting to solve a purely hypothetical puzzle, the "Don't Panic! It's only like flu!" brigade immediately fly off the handle!
I've never said it's only like flu. But then I've never said it was a chemical weapon created by the Chinese government nor that they're burning thousands of bodies a day. Nor have I made a prediction of bed usage in the NHS that was based on a number I just made up (or that someone else made up that I co-opted).
Last edited by thatdberight on Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:35 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:48 pm
18 months at the very least according to the people working on a vaccine. Phase 1 is due to start in April.
I agree. For the first wave at least, any vaccination program will likely be irrelevant. Chloroquine (which I mentioned ages ago) is showing considerable promise, though.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:45 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:48 pm
18 months at the very least according to the people working on a vaccine. Phase 1 is due to start in April.
Not true.

18 months usually but could be accelerated if they can prove efficacy and safety is what at least one of those people actually said.

Strange how many misinterpretations of facts that are reported in a straightforward way happen.

"While it can take 18 months before any vaccine is ready to be distributed to the public, Prof Young said this process could be accelerated if there are assurances the safety of clinical trials would not be compromised."

Professor Paul Young, head of the school of chemistry and molecular biosciences at University of Queensland.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:14 pm

SingaporeClarets wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:19 am
Very few places have stocks of face masks here but the government advice is to only to wear if you are ill and that hand washing and other general good hygiene practices are as equally important.

What’s happening now in Singapore???

Any latest news?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:19 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:14 pm
What’s happening now in Singapore???

Any latest news?
I can’t believe you’re spending your final few days on this earth worrying about this.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:25 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:19 pm
I can’t believe you’re spending your final few days on this earth worrying about this.
😂😂😂😂😂😂

When a simple 'like' just isn't enough...

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:02 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:22 pm
Since I'm no expert, I'm going to go with the sort of consensus which those with knowledge seem to be going for that it could be anything up to 2% but possibly less when you factor in under reporting of mild cases and the likelihood that we will get some respite due to seasonality if we can get as far as spring with no spread. They're not simply sitting dividing deaths by cases to come up with this.

This would not be "biblical levels of catastrophe". It would certainly be significant but 1.5% of the population die every year anyway.

Anyway, I understand from later posts it's only a Chinese government plot to reduce their own population so, unless you're ethnically Chinese, it seems the panic is over.
Glad the panic is over!!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:10 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:19 pm
I can’t believe you’re spending your final few days on this earth worrying about this.
I am sure you would rejoice and laugh if that actual came to pass.

That’s obviously the type of human being you are!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:15 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:02 pm
Glad the panic is over!!
Some people are still panicking. Among the manifestations is asking random people for sitreps from across the world. Honestly, it's true.

Rileybobs
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:18 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:10 pm
I am sure you would rejoice and laugh if that actual came to pass.

That’s obviously the type of human being you are!
It was a joke. Pipe down and chill out.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:32 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:19 pm
I can’t believe you’re spending your final few days on this earth worrying about this.
Let’s all laugh at these two doctors fighting to save people, it’s hilarious after all that these young doctors have died trying to save people.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... vince.html

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:34 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:32 pm
Let’s all laugh at these two doctors fighting to save people, it’s hilarious after all that these young doctors have died trying to save people.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... vince.html
I don’t think that’s something to laugh about personally. If you want to joke about it then that’s your choice but it’s in poor taste.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:58 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:34 pm
I don’t think that’s something to laugh about personally. If you want to joke about it then that’s your choice but it’s in poor taste.
You were the person making a joke about me dying, it was you thought it was a subject of humour.


Suddenly it’s not funny

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:29 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:58 pm
You were the person making a joke about me dying, it was you thought it was a subject of humour.


Suddenly it’s not funny
I didn’t make a joke about you dying. I made a joke about how much you seem to be concerning yourself over this virus, and how if it is as deadly as you think then we don’t have much time left, so why spend the rest of your days worrying about it. You seem to have taken it very personally.

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