Covid-19
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Re: Coronavirus
Here's a simple fact that people need to get their heads around. The death toll in three months of Covid-19 is less than 3,000 worldwide. The infections in China have now been falling for more than a week now, so even if we extrapulate the 3,000 figure and make it an unlikely 12,000 over a year, that's still 50 times less than the 650,000 who die each year from Flu, including 10,000 in the UK.
Should Flu therefore make us panic 50 times more? I think not.
Try to put things in perspective and stop being panicked by scare stories designed to sell newspapers etc..
Should Flu therefore make us panic 50 times more? I think not.
Try to put things in perspective and stop being panicked by scare stories designed to sell newspapers etc..
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Re: Coronavirus
Apologies if this has been mentioned before but did you know that corona virus is an anagram of carnivorous!
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Re: Coronavirus
I’ve booked to go skiing in Italy next month. The government advice currently seems to be “you can go if you want, but you’ll need to quarantine yourself when you get back.” What use is that?
How can I go if I’ll have to take an extra two weeks off work? If I don’t go I effectively flush best part of 2 grand down the toilet. At least if they give official advice not to travel I’ll be able to claim on the insurance. At the moment I’m screwed either way.
How can I go if I’ll have to take an extra two weeks off work? If I don’t go I effectively flush best part of 2 grand down the toilet. At least if they give official advice not to travel I’ll be able to claim on the insurance. At the moment I’m screwed either way.
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Re: Coronavirus
I think you're as guilty of underplaying this as some are of over-reaction.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:37 amHere's a simple fact that people need to get their heads around. The death toll in three months of Covid-19 is less than 3,000 worldwide. The infections in China have now been falling for more than a week now, so even if we extrapulate the 3,000 figure and make it an unlikely 12,000 over a year, that's still 50 times less than the 650,000 who die each year from Flu, including 10,000 in the UK.
Should Flu therefore make us panic 50 times more? I think not.
Try to put things in perspective and stop being panicked by scare stories designed to sell newspapers etc..
This looks to the experts (who are all I've got to go on) like a novel virus with a mortality rate that's in the 1-3% range. That's not (despite what LowBankClaret would have you believe) just them dividing deaths by cases. That's their estimate as epidemiologists. Those same experts seem to think 60% ish of a population might catch this in an uncontrolled pandemic. In the UK that's 400K-1M deaths. That's against (I think someone corrected me above) 700k+ deaths in a normal year. Given that many of the victims are already very old or very ill there's some duplication in there and the likely effect would be higher deaths in the first couple of seasons with lower deaths shortly after as those deaths of older people have happened earlier.
Of course, old and ill people matter too and each death is a source of terrible grief to a family and friends but it's not the apocalypse.
That's why governments are taking serious steps to try and prevent the spread. Those actions are what has kept the death toll low.
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Re: Coronavirus
You've misunderstood the advice.scouseclaret wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:28 amI’ve booked to go skiing in Italy next month. The government advice currently seems to be “you can go if you want, but you’ll need to quarantine yourself when you get back.” What use is that?
How can I go if I’ll have to take an extra two weeks off work? If I don’t go I effectively flush best part of 2 grand down the toilet. At least if they give official advice not to travel I’ll be able to claim on the insurance. At the moment I’m screwed either way.
Re: Coronavirus
Two of your words qualify this issue for me “uncontrolled pandemic”. The very fact that there are many efforts from many experts across the globe means that this outbreak, whilst possibly a pandemic, will most certainly not be uncontrolled and as such the apocalypse that some experts refer to when questioned, whilst accurate in their minds, is now going to be controlled. It is the extent at which control is exercised and by whom that is unknown at this stage, which will affect the possible outcomes.thatdberight wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:37 amI think you're as guilty of underplaying this as some are of over-reaction.
This looks to the experts (who are all I've got to go on) like a novel virus with a mortality rate that's in the 1-3% range. That's not (despite what LowBankClaret would have you believe) just them dividing deaths by cases. That's their estimate as epidemiologists. Those same experts seem to think 60% ish of a population might catch this in an uncontrolled pandemic. In the UK that's 400K-1M deaths. That's against (I think someone corrected me above) 700k+ deaths in a normal year. Given that many of the victims are already very old or very ill there's some duplication in there and the likely effect would be higher deaths in the first couple of seasons with lower deaths shortly after as those deaths of older people have happened earlier.
Of course, old and ill people matter too and each death is a source of terrible grief to a family and friends but it's not the apocalypse.
That's why governments are taking serious steps to try and prevent the spread. Those actions are what has kept the death toll low.
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Re: Coronavirus
Your assumption that 60% of a population will get the virus is ridiculous. In Hubei province, the epicentre of the virus, where for a long time people didn't even know about it, and took no precautions at all, only about 70,000 people have become infected. With a population of 58.5 million, that's only about one person in 800 or 0.125% The vast majority of all cases recover, so I really don't know what you are panicking about.thatdberight wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:37 amI think you're as guilty of underplaying this as some are of over-reaction.
This looks to the experts (who are all I've got to go on) like a novel virus with a mortality rate that's in the 1-3% range. That's not (despite what LowBankClaret would have you believe) just them dividing deaths by cases. That's their estimate as epidemiologists. Those same experts seem to think 60% ish of a population might catch this in an uncontrolled pandemic. In the UK that's 400K-1M deaths. That's against (I think someone corrected me above) 700k+ deaths in a normal year. Given that many of the victims are already very old or very ill there's some duplication in there and the likely effect would be higher deaths in the first couple of seasons with lower deaths shortly after as those deaths of older people have happened earlier.
Of course, old and ill people matter too and each death is a source of terrible grief to a family and friends but it's not the apocalypse.
That's why governments are taking serious steps to try and prevent the spread. Those actions are what has kept the death toll low.
Stop spreading fear.
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Re: Coronavirus
Don't tell me. Tell epidemiology experts.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:02 amYour assumption that 60% of a population will get the virus is ridiculous. In Hubei province, the epicentre of the virus, where for a long time people didn't even know about it, and took no precautions at all, only about 70,000 people have become infected. With a population of 58.5 million, that's only about one person in 800 or 0.125% Most of all cases recover, so I really don't know what you are panicking about.
You're as bad as those who are panicking. You cherry pick data that you don't understand to confirm a conclusion you've already reached.
I'm not panicked at all. I'm taking no actions on this and just getting on with my life but writing it off as "just like" or "not as bad as" this season's flu is completely contrary to the science.
"Given how transmissible this virus appears to be... then 60% is a reasonable figure for the epidemic size. Within the first 12 months or so... Our best estimates at the moment is that maybe 1% of people who get infected might die."
Prof. Neil Ferguson, Imperial College.
But then he's probably just an idiot compared to you.
Your Hubei example is flawed because, although there clearly was a period when this was happening entirely under the radar, intervention took place before they reached "the second half of the chess board".
Last edited by thatdberight on Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus
This is an interesting take. The biggest hope for coronavirus turning out to be 'not as bad as the data suggests' is that there are millions of mild, unrecorded cases that are quietly recovering without incident. And if that is true, it must be highly transmissible (it's only been around for about 12 weeks, after all), and an eventual 60% infection rate would be highly likely.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:02 amYour assumption that 60% of a population will get the virus is ridiculous. In Hubei province, the epicentre of the virus, where for a long time people didn't even know about it, and took no precautions at all, only about 70,000 people have become infected. With a population of 58.5 million, that's only about one person in 800 or 0.125% The vast majority of all cases recover, so I really don't know what you are panicking about.
Stop spreading fear.
If there aren't millions of such mild cases out there, and the data is indeed an accurate representation of the effects of coronavirus (mortality 3%, severe/critical illness in 20%), then we have an extremely dangerous virus on our hands.
It would be hard to argue that it is both fairly benign and not very infectious. I'm actively hoping it is fairly benign (in most people) and, therefore, that it must be highly infectious.
(As it happens I'm still waiting for unmistakable evidence that it isn't both!)
Re: Coronavirus
Based on those figures, 60% of Hubei province is 35 million people, and 1% of that is 350,000. So 350,000 will die in the first 12 months in Hubei, and so far it's 2,500 or so; so the prediction is that there will be a very sharp rise shortly. Time will tell.thatdberight wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 amDon't tell me. Tell epidemiology experts.
You're as bad as those who are panicking. You cherry pick data that you don't understand to confirm a conclusion you've already reached.
I'm not panicked at all. I'm taking no actions on this and just getting on with my life but writing it off as "just like" or "not as bad as" this season's flu is completely contrary to the science.
"Given how transmissible this virus appears to be... then 60% is a reasonable figure for the epidemic size. Within the first 12 months or so... Our best estimates at the moment is that maybe 1% of people who get infected might die."
Prof. Neil Ferguson, Imperial College.
But then he's probably just an idiot compared to you.
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Re: Coronavirus
No. That's only if left unchecked.
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Re: Coronavirus
No, you're the one that's cherry picking stats. I'm looking at the latest current data available. You are looking at worst case scenarios and multiplying by 100 or more.thatdberight wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:05 amDon't tell me. Tell epidemiology experts.
You're as bad as those who are panicking. You cherry pick data that you don't understand to confirm a conclusion you've already reached.
I'm not panicked at all. I'm taking no actions on this and just getting on with my life but writing it off as "just like" or "not as bad as" this season's flu is completely contrary to the science.
"Given how transmissible this virus appears to be... then 60% is a reasonable figure for the epidemic size. Within the first 12 months or so... Our best estimates at the moment is that maybe 1% of people who get infected might die."
Prof. Neil Ferguson, Imperial College.
But then he's probably just an idiot compared to you.
Do you accept that only 0.125% of the people in Hubei Province have contracted the virus? Most of whom have recovered fully, thanks to readily available anti viral drugs. Probably not, because you have your own fear stirring agenda which isn't helping anyone.
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Re: Coronavirus
Can you see that if you are of the view that only 0.125% in Hubei have got this, then it's mortality rate is indeed 3% or more? I'm hoping considerably more than 0.125% in Hubei have got this, recovered, and didn't even know they had it. That would be our best hope.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:30 amNo, you're the one that's cherry picking stats. I'm looking at the latest current data available. You are looking at worst case scenarios and multiplying by 100 or more.
Do you accept that only 0.125% of the people in Hubei Province have contracted the virus? Most of whom have recovered fully, thanks to readily available anti viral drugs. Probably not, because you have your own fear stirring agenda which isn't helping anyone.
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Re: Coronavirus
Not sure I understand your logic. Why if it's relatively benign does it have to be highly infectios? Only 0.125% of the worst hit population have contracted it, so far as we know. There's no point in guessing the number of mild infections that have gone unreported, because they don't matter and are probably no worse than a cold.If it be your will wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:25 amThis is an interesting take. The biggest hope for coronavirus turning out to be 'not as bad as the data suggests' is that there are millions of mild, unrecorded cases that are quietly recovering without incident. And if that is true, it must be highly transmissible (it's only been around for about 12 weeks, after all), and an eventual 60% infection rate would be highly likely.
If there aren't millions of such mild cases out there, and the data is indeed an accurate representation of the effects of coronavirus (mortality 3%, severe/critical illness in 20%), then we have an extremely dangerous virus on our hands.
It would be hard to argue that it is both fairly benign and not very infectious. I'm actively hoping it is fairly benign (in most people) and, therefore, that it must be highly infectious.
(As it happens I'm still waiting for unmistakable evidence that it isn't both!)
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Re: Coronavirus
I accept the 0.125% as the reported figure. I also take as credible the pronouncements of senior epidemiologists that there are likely many more asymptomatic or very mild infections.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:30 amNo, you're the one that's cherry picking stats. I'm looking at the latest current data available. You are looking at worst case scenarios and multiplying by 100 or more.
Do you accept that only 0.125% of the people in Hubei Province have contracted the virus? Most of whom have recovered fully, thanks to readily available anti viral drugs. Probably not, because you have your own fear stirring agenda which isn't helping anyone.
I love the way you make up stuff about "readily available antiviral drugs". That's literally just **** you made up on the spot.
The WHO (probably another bunch of experts you dismiss):
"There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for COVID-19".
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Re: Coronavirus
Why do you keep swapping between mortality rates of 1% and 3%. Simple answer, you haven't got a clue.If it be your will wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:36 amCan you see that if you are of the view that only 0.125% in Hubei have got this, then it's mortality rate is indeed 3% or more? I'm hoping considerably more than 0.125% in Hubei have got this, recovered, and didn't even know they had it. That would be our best hope.
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Re: Coronavirus
I don't dismiss the WHO at all. I wish more people would listen to what THEY are saying instead of what the media is pushing out.thatdberight wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:36 amI accept the 0.125% as the reported figure. I also take as credible the pronouncements of senior epidemiologists that there are likely many more asymptomatic or very mild infections.
I love the way you make up stuff about "readily available antiviral drugs". That's literally just **** you made up on the spot.
The WHO (probably another bunch of experts you dismiss):
"There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for COVID-19".
The quote of "There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for COVID-19". was made because there isn't ONE specific anti viral drug in use. Many are being used and some are more effective than others. It's a learning curve that we are on at the moment but the WHO is our best bet, not the media.
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Re: Coronavirus
There's no evidence yet as to which, if any, of the multiple drugs that are being trialled / used are effective. With a mortality rate seemingly in that 1-3% range, it's quite hard to work out what's effective when 97-99% of those affected recover anyway with appropriate support.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:42 amI don't dismiss the WHO at all. I wish more people would listen to what THEY are saying instead of what the media is pushing out.
The quote of "There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for COVID-19". was made because there isn't ONE specific anti viral drug in use. Many are being used and some are more effective than others. It's a learning curve that we are on at the moment but the WHO is our best bet, not the media.
The fact that those on both sides who are ignoring the science are claiming I'm wrong reassures me that I'm probably treading a rational middle ground.
If you want to state your credentials so that I can weight your response against the likes of Prof. Ferguson and others, of course, please do so.
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Re: Coronavirus
You make my point for me about anti viral drugs. Some are more effective than others, so why quote WHO as saying "There is no specific antiviral treatment recommended for COVID-19". when some are working better than others.thatdberight wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:47 amThere's no evidence yet as to which, if any, of the multiple drugs that are being trialled / used are effective. With a mortality rate seemingly in that 1-3% range, it's quite hard to work out what's effective when 97-99% of those affected recover anyway with appropriate support.
The fact that those on both sides who are ignoring the science are claiming I'm wrong reassures me that I'm probably treading a rational middle ground.
Your death rates are way over the top though.
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Re: Coronavirus
When did all these UTC posters get their degrees/doctorates in pathology/epidemiology/pharmacology
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Re: Coronavirus
I think that little jibe has been done on this thread 3 or 4 times already. We're just interested in trying to piece the information together, that's all.ClaretAndJew wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:52 amWhen did all these UTC posters get their degrees/doctorates in pathology/epidemiology/pharmacology
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Re: Coronavirus
They didn't mate, but some of us can read, and if you read enough, you learn quite bit.ClaretAndJew wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:52 amWhen did all these UTC posters get their degrees/doctorates in pathology/epidemiology/pharmacology
A great source of learning is www.ted.com where you can watch lectures by great minds on every subject under the sun, including the ones you mention.
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Re: Coronavirus
I have a 1st class honours degree in a scientific subject and I am capable of interpreting data, of which all of it is widely available on the internet.ClaretAndJew wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:52 amWhen did all these UTC posters get their degrees/doctorates in pathology/epidemiology/pharmacology
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Re: Coronavirus
I salute and indeed bow to all of your superior knowledge.
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Re: Coronavirus
Reading this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... nomy-falls
I think it's reasonable to suggest that efforts at containment have failed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... nomy-falls
I think it's reasonable to suggest that efforts at containment have failed.
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Re: Coronavirus
You're not stupid. I'd actually be quite interested in your interpretation of the information available, if you'd like to contribute.ClaretAndJew wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:39 pmI salute and indeed bow to all of your superior knowledge.
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Re: Coronavirus
The knowledge is not superior, it’s merely data. It’s how people interpret the data that mattersClaretAndJew wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:39 pmI salute and indeed bow to all of your superior knowledge.
Re: Coronavirus
A guy who I was speaking to last night said he was pretty worried about the Coronavirus and that it could kill you and the precautions he was going to take, which I thought to be a tad ironic given that he was smoking a fag at the time
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Re: Coronavirus
Of course containment has failed. That's been obvious for weeks now. That deosn't mean it's as virulent as you suggest, it just means it's likely to be as common as other things like Flu. And probably no worse.If it be your will wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:42 pmReading this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... nomy-falls
I think it's reasonable to suggest that efforts at containment have failed.
Last edited by Gordaleman on Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Coronavirus
Given Mr Hancock has advised Brits returning from Northern Italy to self quarantine for 2 weeks, you can bet your life that this ain't going to be contained.If it be your will wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:42 pmReading this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... nomy-falls
I think it's reasonable to suggest that efforts at containment have failed.
Let's hope we can keep it away until the end of the season
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Re: Coronavirus
Due to fly to Venice for a week on Monday... It's in Veneto which is one of the affected regions in Italy.
From the sounds of it a lot of the attractions are closed to the public so I'm not sure if it's worth us even going!
From the sounds of it a lot of the attractions are closed to the public so I'm not sure if it's worth us even going!
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Re: Coronavirus
That's a very imprecise rendering of the current advice.
If you've been to-
Specific areas of Northern Italy : self-quarantine if you have symptoms.
Very small areas of Northern Italy (pop. 50,000) : self-quarantine.
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Re: Coronavirus
Not a hope in hell, in my view & some other more professional people the measures aren't strict enough, it's a killer, the shift seems to be using flu as some sort of yardstick in evaluating the virus, we could always compare Ted Bundy & Peter Sutcliffe to see which 1 had the highest murder rate, Peter Sutcliffe must have been a kinder murderer.
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Re: Coronavirus
I have avoided this thread so far because I had a good idea what to expect...and I was right. I have read some of page 1 and some of page 9 and left the rest alone.
Conclusion: never in the history of man has so much expert opinion been put forward by so many with no knowledge at all of what they are talking about.
Leave it to the real experts guys...you are only upsetting yourselves.
I'll just return to my ignorance and listen as and when the doctors tell us something REAL.
Conclusion: never in the history of man has so much expert opinion been put forward by so many with no knowledge at all of what they are talking about.
Leave it to the real experts guys...you are only upsetting yourselves.
I'll just return to my ignorance and listen as and when the doctors tell us something REAL.
Last edited by houseboy on Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus
Attempts to relay what experts are saying have not been received well.houseboy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:48 pmI have avoided this thread so far because I had a good idea what to expect...and I was right. I have read some of page 1 and some of page 9 and left the rest alone.
Conclusion: never in the history of man has so much expert opinion been put forward by so many with no knowledge at all of what they are talking about.
Leave it to the real experts guys...you are only upsetting yourselves.
I'll just return to my ignorance and listen as and when the doctors tell us some thing REAL.
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Re: Coronavirus
I think the real numbers of deaths and those infected could be far far higher than those being reported.Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:40 pmNot a hope in hell, in my view & some other more professional people the measures aren't strict enough, it's a killer, the shift seems to be using flu as some sort of yardstick in evaluating the virus, we could always compare Ted Bundy & Peter Sutcliffe to see which 1 had the highest murder rate, Peter Sutcliffe must have been a kinder murderer.
Lets see where we are in 6 weeks time but to slow down the spread I think our borders should be closed.
What ever happens the world economy is going to take a battering with companies suffering ( airlines etc ) and pension funds being turned into under funded scenarios if stockarkets crash as expected.
House prices will very likely fall too.
I think its the worst crisis in my lifetime
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Re: Coronavirus
It's definitely a big problem for sure, I'd stop short at a crisis, it will effect people differently, age & location, I wouldn't like to be a old person in China right now.paulatky wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:55 pmI think the real numbers of deaths and those infected could be far far higher than those being reported.
Lets see where we are in 6 weeks time but to slow down the spread I think our borders should be closed.
What ever happens the world economy is going to take a battering with companies suffering ( airlines etc ) and pension funds being turned into under funded scenarios if stockarkets crash as expected.
House prices will very likely fall too.
I think its the worst crisis in my lifetime
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Re: Coronavirus
affect*Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:59 pmIt's definitely a big problem for sure, I'd stop short at a crisis, it will effect people differently, age & location, I wouldn't like to be a old person in China right now.
We may be all about to peg out in a viral apocalypse but that's no reason for standards to slip.
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Re: Coronavirus
A school in Blackburn has closed due to members of staff becoming ill after returning from a half term trip to northern Italy
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Re: Coronavirus
True, it's a massive problem I just wish a few of you would recognise, you don't have to panic to be realistic.thatdberight wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:02 pmaffect*
We may be all about to peg out in a viral apocalypse but that's no reason for standards to slip.
Re: Coronavirus
Game against Spurs could well be off.SalouClaret wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:07 pmA school in Blackburn has closed due to members of staff becoming ill after returning from a half term trip to northern Italy
And if it goes ahead many stay away.
The Bob Lord could be almost empty
Re: Coronavirus
Google is a great toolClaretAndJew wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:52 amWhen did all these UTC posters get their degrees/doctorates in pathology/epidemiology/pharmacology
Iam not reading 9 pages of people pretending to know something about it. Iam off to Tenerife.
Re: Coronavirus
Where's this been reported?SalouClaret wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:07 pmA school in Blackburn has closed due to members of staff becoming ill after returning from a half term trip to northern Italy
Re: Coronavirus
If that's St Christopher's, I think the reason it's closed is because no-one has enough confidence or information to keep it open. Not because someone is ill.SalouClaret wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:07 pmA school in Blackburn has closed due to members of staff becoming ill after returning from a half term trip to northern Italy
Who is there in a position of authority who could say "the school has had a school trip to Italy, but we think it's OK"?
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Re: Coronavirus
dsr wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:11 pmIf that's St Christopher's, I think the reason it's closed is because no-one has enough confidence or information to keep it open. Not because someone is ill.
Who is there in a position of authority who could say "the school has had a school trip to Italy, but we think it's OK"?
I don't know, I don't care. I was just relaying a message from a teacher there haha.
Re: Coronavirus
Might be best to keep quiet then, not really doing anyone any favours with rumours, wrong towns etc.SalouClaret wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:12 pmIt hasn't yet. My best friend's brother is a PE teacher there and has just been informed. I imagine it will be reported soon.
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