Covid-19
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Re: Coronavirus
I live in Hongshan District, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China....where the Coronavirus / COVID-19 alledgedly began.
I can assure you that the situation is very serious.
Hubei Province amongst others is "Locked down"....the srteets/roads are deserted, completely.
As for the face masks, I am forbidden to leave my apartment without wearing one.
And....the only reason I leave my apartment is to go to the communty gate to collect any food that is available, usually biscuits and crisps.
For those who doubt my account of the situation, I suggest that you TRY to come here and see for yourself....
I can assure you that the situation is very serious.
Hubei Province amongst others is "Locked down"....the srteets/roads are deserted, completely.
As for the face masks, I am forbidden to leave my apartment without wearing one.
And....the only reason I leave my apartment is to go to the communty gate to collect any food that is available, usually biscuits and crisps.
For those who doubt my account of the situation, I suggest that you TRY to come here and see for yourself....
Re: Coronavirus
We are being told that China has broken the back of this. Is there any sense things are starting to change? Good luck, although I think we all need a bit of luck now.mapinchina wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:56 amI live in Hongshan District, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China....where the Coronavirus / COVID-19 alledgedly began.
I can assure you that the situation is very serious.
Hubei Province amongst others is "Locked down"....the srteets/roads are deserted, completely.
As for the face masks, I am forbidden to leave my apartment without wearing one.
And....the only reason I leave my apartment is to go to the communty gate to collect any food that is available, usually biscuits and crisps.
For those who doubt my account of the situation, I suggest that you TRY to come here and see for yourself....
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Re: Coronavirus
Yes, the situation has improved here in Wuhan, Hubei Province.
The "Lock down" appears to be working.
In fact it's being reported that Wuhan is now the safest place !
I do think that you will need luck as I cannot imagine people in the UK or Europe abiding to a "Lock down" for long....until people start being infected or dieing.
Good luck to all.
The "Lock down" appears to be working.
In fact it's being reported that Wuhan is now the safest place !
I do think that you will need luck as I cannot imagine people in the UK or Europe abiding to a "Lock down" for long....until people start being infected or dieing.
Good luck to all.
Re: Coronavirus
Sophie Trudeau tests positive.
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Re: Coronavirus
I think we can all be certain that the government number of confirmed cases is nowhere near actual
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Re: Coronavirus
Well, seeing as the Prime Minister said so himself yesterday, that seems to be a safe bet. Still, well done for mentioning it.damo_whitehead wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:27 amI think we can all be certain that the government number of confirmed cases is nowhere near actual
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Re: Coronavirus
I’m no expert but when you have Merkel banging on about 70% of the German population getting the virus it is a big worry. However, if China have broken the back of it how can those German estimates be true...
There’s a whole lot of conjecture being spouted and we really need to learn quickly from what China have done to slow this down as Italy, whatever they are doing, seems out of control, certainly in terms of numbers dying vs actual cases (currently 6.7%)
There’s a whole lot of conjecture being spouted and we really need to learn quickly from what China have done to slow this down as Italy, whatever they are doing, seems out of control, certainly in terms of numbers dying vs actual cases (currently 6.7%)
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Re: Coronavirus
Thank you, rare to get a nice comment on herethatdberight wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:29 amWell, seeing as the Prime Minister said so himself yesterday, that seems to be a safe bet. Still, well done for mentioning it.
Re: Coronavirus
What is the noise coming out of China as to what the actual source or cause of the virus may have been?mapinchina wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:10 amYes, the situation has improved here in Wuhan, Hubei Province.
The "Lock down" appears to be working.
In fact it's being reported that Wuhan is now the safest place !
I do think that you will need luck as I cannot imagine people in the UK or Europe abiding to a "Lock down" for long....until people start being infected or dieing.
Good luck to all.
How restrictive has travel been , can people move between towns ? Or is it restricted further to areas ?
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Re: Coronavirus
Hopefully the number of people who have had it so far will be much much higher than the “official” number.damo_whitehead wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:27 amI think we can all be certain that the government number of confirmed cases is nowhere near actual
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Re: Coronavirus
If you go on the Worldometer site. All the data is there.cricketfieldclarets wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:31 pmHaven’t most recovered and been given the all clear. Or have I misunderstood that?
You can look at it and draw your own conclusions
Re: Coronavirus
As I technically employ myself I certainly won't be isolating from work at the first sign of a temp. I will however avoid the over 60's where possible.
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Re: Coronavirus
They seem absurdly low showing either nobody is being tested hardly or people covering up true numbers.
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Re: Coronavirus
Reading through that report is really frightening.HunterST_BFC wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:33 amFor anyone who wants a half hour read.
Much is explained
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca
Concludes that overall death rate will be 3.8%
Re: Coronavirus
you do realise that the person writing that article is not an expert at all (at least not a medical expert), he's just a "Joe Public" who has become popular because of a social media spread - his article has gone "viral" (ironically) because its pretty. His info is also being misinterpreted (IMO) and I have highlighted one issue previously (regarding South Korea).
So to infer that the death rate will be 3.8% is f#cking absurd and you should stop doing it, even if you read it on something that looks official (because it's not!) Please check the sources of your info before repeating rubbish that can cause others to worry unnecessarily (again!).
Here's his linked In profile https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomaspueyo/
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Re: Coronavirus
We will only know the true rate in say 9-12 months time.Zlatan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:52 amyou do realise that the person writing that article is not an expert at all (at least not a medical expert), he's just a "Joe Public" who has become popular because of a social media spread - his article has gone "viral" (ironically) because its pretty. His info is also being misinterpreted (IMO) and I have highlighted one issue previously (regarding South Korea).
So to infer that the death rate will be 3.8% is f#cking absurd and you should stop doing it, even if you read it on something that looks official (because it's not!) Please check the sources of your info before repeating rubbish that can cause others to worry unnecessarily (again!).
Here's his linked In profile https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomaspueyo/
As I have said before I hope I am absolutely wrong.
What do you disagree with in that article.
It all made perfect sense to me.
Re: Coronavirus
In my previous reply to you when you first posted the link but ignored my reply...
I’ll maintain that the actual death rate for this when it’s all done and dusted will be lower than it currently is in South Korea (0.8%) because as I have previously stated, the denominator for the rate is currently unknown but can only be larger than already known - which means the rate will be lower.Zlatan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:31 pmThanks for the link Paulatky - I notice the author highlights South Korea as somewhere the virus "cases have exploded" - yet the deaths for South Korea are at a rate of 0.8% which is significantly lower than the rest of the world. Interesting that isn't it?
I think the reason is that the South Korean's are actively testing and promoting testing as opposed to testing only those who show symptoms, so they are "catching" an amount of the hidden population numbers that are being missed worldwide - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51836898
I believe that this approach is a good approach to fighting this, and it is going a long way to show that it isn't as deadly as the media are currently reporting. Serious, yes, Armageddon, no.
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Re: Coronavirus
I don’t want to enter old arguments but we could both select countries stats that support our arguments.Zlatan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:10 amIn my previous reply to you when you first posted the link but ignored my reply...
I’ll maintain that the actual death rate for this when it’s all done and dusted will be lower than it currently is in South Korea (0.8%) because as I have previously stated, the denominator for the rate is currently unknown but can only be larger than already known - which means the rate will be lower.
Perhaps we could add some balance by quoting a country with low stats and one with high.
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Re: Coronavirus
Just been outside to check, the sky is still there!
Last edited by Caballo on Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus
Interesting article written by someone who is not an expert but has obviously done a lot of work.HunterST_BFC wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:33 amFor anyone who wants a half hour read.
Much is explained
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca
Three points that I picked out.
1. The far east have reacted to this virus much faster, and in a better way than the west. (The US response appears to have been particularly bad.) So maybe some people on here could learn that not all foreigners are stupid? Blaming an entire nation for something they had little or no control over is a bit xenophobic. A similar virus could just as easily spread from an infected pig in Britain.
2. According to at least one graph, Britain's rate of infection seems to be much the same as other countries, even though we are tackling it in a different way.
3. Social distancing seems to work and because of my underlying health condition I will be leaviing home only when I really need to.
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Re: Coronavirus
Apologies if the sceptic in me has lead me down the wrong path. I’m a little surprised that our friend in China last posted in December, on a completely different subject? Especially as he/she has had little to do, but pick biscuits up from the gates??
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Re: Coronavirus
In the interest of balance, I hope anyway!
Zlatan quoted South Korea. Latest data works out at 0.97% fatality rate.
At the other end of the scale we have Italy, same calcs, Latest data works out at 8.69%.
Now I have no idea where we are going to end up with all this, but the data shows at least to me why the Italians are reacting the way they are.
Currently we here are not in the same place as Italy and hopefully we don’t get there either.
Let’s hope we are more like SK.
Zlatan quoted South Korea. Latest data works out at 0.97% fatality rate.
At the other end of the scale we have Italy, same calcs, Latest data works out at 8.69%.
Now I have no idea where we are going to end up with all this, but the data shows at least to me why the Italians are reacting the way they are.
Currently we here are not in the same place as Italy and hopefully we don’t get there either.
Let’s hope we are more like SK.
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Re: Coronavirus
Without anybody replying, mentioning any poster in a derogatory way, in fact not mentioning any other poster at all because it's annoying the rest of us...
I read that the virus can live on surfaces for up to 3 days (although I've also read 9) and that people who are infected, can still pass it on within 14 days (although I also read nearer double this), then if the country was in total lock down for 1 month, wouldn't that go a long way to controlling it, at least in this country?
I ask, because I've heard 4 months being mentioned.
I read that the virus can live on surfaces for up to 3 days (although I've also read 9) and that people who are infected, can still pass it on within 14 days (although I also read nearer double this), then if the country was in total lock down for 1 month, wouldn't that go a long way to controlling it, at least in this country?
I ask, because I've heard 4 months being mentioned.
Re: Coronavirus
Everton squad now all self isolating
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Re: Coronavirus
Everton squad in lockdown as 1st team player reports symptoms.
Can't see the PL carrying on.
Can't see the PL carrying on.
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Re: Coronavirus
I was going to post some questions for them to answer as I to was a little sceptical.jackmiggins wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:28 amApologies if the sceptic in me has lead me down the wrong path. I’m a little surprised that our friend in China last posted in December, on a completely different subject? Especially as he/she has had little to do, but pick biscuits up from the gates??
The one thing I do know, up the clarets was the only website I could access when I was in China. Burnley football club was blocked as was just 95% of normal sites I use.
Perhaps he could post some photos of his surroundings.
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Re: Coronavirus
Shouldn’t only confirmed cases be noted? 5 days, with no improvement seems to be the advised time to be tested. Until then, it is most likely to be a cold.
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Re: Coronavirus
The stats are very surprising. I would have thought that droplets on surfaces would dry out very, very quickly and that that would also dry out and kill the virus. After all it's water based, just like every other living thing.FactualFrank wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:35 amWithout anybody replying, mentioning any poster in a derogatory way, in fact not mentioning any other poster at all because it's annoying the rest of us...
I read that the virus can live on surfaces for up to 3 days (although I've also read 9) and that people who are infected, can still pass it on within 14 days (although I also read nearer double this), then if the country was in total lock down for 1 month, wouldn't that go a long way to controlling it, at least in this country?
I ask, because I've heard 4 months being mentioned.
Re: Coronavirus
I highlighted SK for a reason, and explained my reason. They are testing far more of the population so have a much more accurate denominator - they don’t just have results from people affected but also those who are not affected.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:33 amIn the interest of balance, I hope anyway!
Zlatan quoted South Korea. Latest data works out at 0.97% fatality rate.
B9A29EFC-536A-4033-B370-EFD6305B3C5D.png
At the other end of the scale we have Italy, same calcs, Latest data works out at 8.69%.
846A5BB5-1A49-45FF-A32C-6BEEE42D46DB.png
Now I have no idea where we are going to end up with all this, but the data shows at least to me why the Italians are reacting the way they are.
Currently we here are not in the same place as Italy and hopefully we don’t get there either.
Let’s hope we are more like SK.
Last edited by Zlatan on Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus
Where are unconfirmed cases being noted? I don't understand your point.jackmiggins wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:41 amShouldn’t only confirmed cases be noted? 5 days, with no improvement seems to be the advised time to be tested. Until then, it is most likely to be a cold.
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Re: Coronavirus
I agree the data out there is so confusing.FactualFrank wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:35 amWithout anybody replying, mentioning any poster in a derogatory way, in fact not mentioning any other poster at all because it's annoying the rest of us...
I read that the virus can live on surfaces for up to 3 days (although I've also read 9) and that people who are infected, can still pass it on within 14 days (although I also read nearer double this), then if the country was in total lock down for 1 month, wouldn't that go a long way to controlling it, at least in this country?
I ask, because I've heard 4 months being mentioned.
I have read the same stuff as you.
I have heard Dr Hilary on TV say 5 days on hard surfaces.
I read a study done in China found people who have recovered are still spreading the virus up to 5 weeks after becoming well.
I found this study yesterday, seems to have done some testing on the virus.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20033217v1
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Re: Coronavirus
I agree, that can certainly be a massive variable in the data.
I also don’t understand the UK strategy of just reducing testing and letting people get ill.
It’s back to the days of sending kids to play with their ill friends like my mum did with mumps.
I never got it even after being around two different kids who were really ill with it.
Re: Coronavirus
The most accurate figure for mortality rates might well be provided by the cruise ship, Diamond Princess. That was a closed environment in which everyone was tested. In that case there were about 700 confirmed cases of whom 7 have since died. Of course, others may die in the future but that was a couple of weeks ago now. These figures would suggest that the actual mortality rate is about 1% although cruise ships may have a disproportionate number of older people as passengers.
It seems likely that the very high mortality rate in Italy is due to the fact that they have not been testing a lot of people so the number of actual cases is probably much higher. Interesting that the medical authorities in the UK are suggesting that the number of actual cases is probably ten or even twenty times higher than confirmed cases, suggesting again that mortality rates might be lower.
It seems likely that the very high mortality rate in Italy is due to the fact that they have not been testing a lot of people so the number of actual cases is probably much higher. Interesting that the medical authorities in the UK are suggesting that the number of actual cases is probably ten or even twenty times higher than confirmed cases, suggesting again that mortality rates might be lower.
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Re: Coronavirus
thatdberight- Self isolation is not confirmation that a test has been carried out.
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Re: Coronavirus
Ok, so if we go to the max on both: 5 days for the virus to remain on surfaces + 35 days people can still spread it + the 7 days being ill + 5 days for people to have it, but not yet have started any symptoms... that comes out at around 52 days.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:47 amI agree the data out there is so confusing.
I have read the same stuff as you.
I have heard Dr Hilary on TV say 5 days on hard surfaces.
I read a study done in China found people who have recovered are still spreading the virus up to 5 weeks after becoming well.
Last edited by FactualFrank on Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Coronavirus
valid points Frank, and I think that this subject in relation to the virus is where I would put some research money if I was in charge.FactualFrank wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:35 amWithout anybody replying, mentioning any poster in a derogatory way, in fact not mentioning any other poster at all because it's annoying the rest of us...
I read that the virus can live on surfaces for up to 3 days (although I've also read 9) and that people who are infected, can still pass it on within 14 days (although I also read nearer double this), then if the country was in total lock down for 1 month, wouldn't that go a long way to controlling it, at least in this country?
I ask, because I've heard 4 months being mentioned.
It is important to understand the methods of infection and the durability of the virus over a time-frame. My understanding of any virus that is outside the body (all viruses require a living host to survive) is that the potency of the virus is diminished over that timeframe. I.e. the suggestion is that the same virus on a surface (door handle for example) will lose potency over time.
Contracting the virus when it is in a lower state of potency may affect your outcome, it may not though and I am no expert in this. Hence my suggestion for the research. I am sure that this research has already be done for other viruses and they can probably extrapolate the data for Coronavirus, but again they wont be certain until the empirically test for this.
Hope that makes sense...
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Re: Coronavirus
Not exactly a Steve Bruce fan but he's right here.
Newcastle manager Steve Bruce: “We’ve prepared for the game and people talk about it being behind closed doors but if we play football it’s for one thing – the supporters.
"For me, suspend it, shut it down and rearrange it for another date when the situation is clearer.”
Imagine if the Liverpool derby is played behind closed doors on Monday. Thousands of fans will still turn up at the ground to try and create an atmosphere, so they might as well be inside.
Newcastle manager Steve Bruce: “We’ve prepared for the game and people talk about it being behind closed doors but if we play football it’s for one thing – the supporters.
"For me, suspend it, shut it down and rearrange it for another date when the situation is clearer.”
Imagine if the Liverpool derby is played behind closed doors on Monday. Thousands of fans will still turn up at the ground to try and create an atmosphere, so they might as well be inside.
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Re: Coronavirus
OK. You're right. I haven't seen (and certainly haven't used) any such stats.jackmiggins wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:54 amthatdberight- Self isolation is not confirmation that a test has been carried out.
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Re: Coronavirus
So, if China are in 'lock down' for 52 days, when they do come out to start working again...
1. Those who had it will have either recovered or passed away.
2. Any surface that had the virus on it, will no longer.
3. Those who have recovered won't be able to pass it on to someone who hasn't yet had it.
But as you mention Zlatan, one would think the scientists will already know all of this. But maybe that's why China are doing what they are doing. And why Social Distancing + washing hands / not touching face, as simple as it sounds, is possibly the best method going forward.
1. Those who had it will have either recovered or passed away.
2. Any surface that had the virus on it, will no longer.
3. Those who have recovered won't be able to pass it on to someone who hasn't yet had it.
But as you mention Zlatan, one would think the scientists will already know all of this. But maybe that's why China are doing what they are doing. And why Social Distancing + washing hands / not touching face, as simple as it sounds, is possibly the best method going forward.
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Re: Coronavirus
The chap above from Wuhan makes interesting posts.
I read a epidemiologist report on Wuhan on Twitter last night and this guy suggested that 95% of the residents remain vulnerable to catching it once restrictions are lifted.
Basically, sooner or later, it will go through the whole planet like a dose of salts. That seems to be the conclusion our government has reached, and so they want immunity building up now. Not sure the Chinese approach should be praised just yet.
I read a epidemiologist report on Wuhan on Twitter last night and this guy suggested that 95% of the residents remain vulnerable to catching it once restrictions are lifted.
Basically, sooner or later, it will go through the whole planet like a dose of salts. That seems to be the conclusion our government has reached, and so they want immunity building up now. Not sure the Chinese approach should be praised just yet.
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Re: Coronavirus
Ok, I think all we know is that we don't know.
Some may remember I mentioned I was skiing in Austria. And, as imagined by one poster I met some Italians carrying a gondola up the slopes (I also smiled at the image).
Yesterday, I was taken off the slopes by the medics, after a fall and concussion. I've enjoyed the care of Austrian hospital. Now waiting for my discharge papers.
Let's all enjoy life. Let's try not to get "over excited" about someone posting something you don't agree with. Maybe you do know better, or maybe the other poster does. More likely we are all speculating and trying to make sense of something that we haven't experienced before.
Take care, everyone.
And UTC when the Premier League gets going again.
Some may remember I mentioned I was skiing in Austria. And, as imagined by one poster I met some Italians carrying a gondola up the slopes (I also smiled at the image).
Yesterday, I was taken off the slopes by the medics, after a fall and concussion. I've enjoyed the care of Austrian hospital. Now waiting for my discharge papers.
Let's all enjoy life. Let's try not to get "over excited" about someone posting something you don't agree with. Maybe you do know better, or maybe the other poster does. More likely we are all speculating and trying to make sense of something that we haven't experienced before.
Take care, everyone.
And UTC when the Premier League gets going again.
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Re: Coronavirus
I was only responding to the post regarding Everton in ‘lockdown’
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Re: Coronavirus
My friends in italy have been panicking hugely about this for over a month. And constantly telling us not to take it as lightly as we are.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:33 amIn the interest of balance, I hope anyway!
Zlatan quoted South Korea. Latest data works out at 0.97% fatality rate.
B9A29EFC-536A-4033-B370-EFD6305B3C5D.png
At the other end of the scale we have Italy, same calcs, Latest data works out at 8.69%.
846A5BB5-1A49-45FF-A32C-6BEEE42D46DB.png
Now I have no idea where we are going to end up with all this, but the data shows at least to me why the Italians are reacting the way they are.
Currently we here are not in the same place as Italy and hopefully we don’t get there either.
Let’s hope we are more like SK.
I dont know why its seemingly so much worse there. Or why they predicted as such weeks ago. But I imagine it could be the aging population and less ability to manage it.
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Re: Coronavirus
Some common sense
Newcastle manager Steve Bruce: “We’ve prepared for the game and people talk about it being behind closed doors but if we play football it’s for one thing – the supporters.
"For me, suspend it, shut it down and rearrange it for another date when the situation is clearer.”
Newcastle manager Steve Bruce: “We’ve prepared for the game and people talk about it being behind closed doors but if we play football it’s for one thing – the supporters.
"For me, suspend it, shut it down and rearrange it for another date when the situation is clearer.”
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Re: Coronavirus
I posted that earlier and agree with you.boatshed bill wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:07 amSome common sense
Newcastle manager Steve Bruce: “We’ve prepared for the game and people talk about it being behind closed doors but if we play football it’s for one thing – the supporters.
"For me, suspend it, shut it down and rearrange it for another date when the situation is clearer.”
Champion's League now suspended.
Last edited by Gordaleman on Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.