Covid-19

[dsr]

No idea where you get you data from but you are claiming that Approx 20% of people in the Uk Die of flu.

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Not only have you no idea where I get the figures from (though you would do if you had been reading other peoples' posts instead of just trumpeting your own) but you also have little or no idea what I wrote in this one.

I am saying that the official government statistics of death certificates say that:

in 2015 there were 607,172 deaths in the UK, and that in England 102,507 deaths had pneumonia or flu listed as a primary or secondary cause.

In 2016 it was 597,206 and 96,031. In 2017 it was 602,782 and 94,011. Allowing for England being only 5/6ths of the UK population, that averages at 19.5% of deaths had flu and/or pneumonia as a primary or a secondary cause.

[Mala591]

At risk of flogging a dead horse, but at least I can hope that other people don't fall for your doom-mongering, even if you fall for it yourself ...

Here's why your statistic is less than useful.

Imagine two populations of 100,000 people.

Population 1 - 30,000 people have coronavirus, 1,800 need hospital treatment, 300 will die. Only those who are treated in hospital are tested.
Population 2 - 30,000 people have coronavirus, 1,800 need hospital treatment, 300 will die. The whole population is tested.

Population 1 has a "death rate" of 300 per 1,800 tested - that is, 16.6%.
Population 2 has a "death rate" of 300 per 30,000 tested - that is, 1%.

So which population does your stat say is the safer to live in? Would it be the 16.6% death rate? Or would it be the 1% death rate? Or would it be that it makes no difference becasue the risk is exactly the same.

Agreed.

Extrapolate a 30% infection rate and a 1% death rate (of those infected) to a 70 million population and the result is 210,000 deaths.

Hence the need to spread the infection rate over as many months as possible.

[Inchy]

Just finished my 12.5 hour shift. Things are ramping up. Patients are coming in. Every referral I had today was Covid related. Beds are not an issue yet but it’s inevitable they are going to be.

It’s not just the old. 30s, 40s and 50s as well.
No one is doing well.

I keep telling myself that I am young and fit and I’m only seeing the unwell patients and many many more are managing in the community but it’s hard when that’s all you see.

Everyone is scared in ICU. When the calmest of the calm ICU consultants are scared, I’m scared.

[thatdberight]

Just finished my 12.5 hour shift. Things are ramping up. Patients are coming in. Every referral I had today was Covid related. Beds are not an issue yet but it’s inevitable they are going to be.

It’s not just the old. 30s, 40s and 50s as well.
No one is doing well.

I keep telling myself that I am young and fit and I’m only seeing the unwell patients and many many more are managing in the community but it’s hard when that’s all you see.

Everyone is scared in ICU. When the calmest of the calm ICU consultants are scared, I’m scared.

Don't really know what to say to that other than, "Thank you". Sorry. Got nothing better.

[TsarBomba]

Just finished my 12.5 hour shift. Things are ramping up. Patients are coming in. Every referral I had today was Covid related. Beds are not an issue yet but it’s inevitable they are going to be.

It’s not just the old. 30s, 40s and 50s as well.
No one is doing well.

I keep telling myself that I am young and fit and I’m only seeing the unwell patients and many many more are managing in the community but it’s hard when that’s all you see.

Everyone is scared in ICU. When the calmest of the calm ICU consultants are scared, I’m scared.

You are doing a sterling job, Inchy. We’re all behind you. Stay safe.

[evensteadiereddie]

All the best to you and your colleagues, Inchy, and thank you very much for all your efforts.
My eldest is due to give birth down in Devon any time. She 's a long way away, in worrying times, but I know she's in the safest hands possible.
Thanks again.

[claretonthecoast1882]

Just finished my 12.5 hour shift. Things are ramping up. Patients are coming in. Every referral I had today was Covid related. Beds are not an issue yet but it’s inevitable they are going to be.

It’s not just the old. 30s, 40s and 50s as well.
No one is doing well.

I keep telling myself that I am young and fit and I’m only seeing the unwell patients and many many more are managing in the community but it’s hard when that’s all you see.

Everyone is scared in ICU. When the calmest of the calm ICU consultants are scared, I’m scared.

Reading the last few comments on this page show what some are going through either working through this on the frontline or just being kept apart from loved ones. Be nice if somehow the divide in this country could be brought closer together through this.

You and your fellow workers are owed more than the country can ever give, good luck Inchy & Tsar. Good luck to you and yours too eddie

[Erasmus]

Inchy, from myself and my family a huge thank you to you and your co-workers. We will forever be in your debt. The heroes of the modern era.

[mdd2]

DSR Death certification is full of errors in the 600,000 or so who are certified as dead. Whether flu goes on or does not is at the whim of the doctor signing. As for pneumonia that per se does not always state bacterial and if so which bacteria, viral and if so which virus.
You can certify death as being to old age and then it is anyone's guess.
Boyd Professor of Pathology in Canada and I misquote but something like " sometimes you ask, not why did he die, but how did he mange to live so long"

[thatdberight]

Agree, I've now seen all the other posts after your original questions - and Paulatky's "no it's wrong."

I had to try a few different calcs before I identified the assumptions they had used to produce their calc.

Of course, their model simplifies the situation. It would be nice if it was true: Day 0 - get infected; Day 1 - don't infected anyone else, Day 2 - don't infected anyone else, Day 3 - don't infected anyone else, Day 4 - don't infected anyone else. Day 5 - infected 2.5 other people.

I gave up trying to do it anything other than 1 step more realistic. If you assume the infection happens halfway through the 5 day period, the "half" scenario of cases stays below 100. But instead of 406, you get 99,000+ in the "full" scenario.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

All the best Inchy.

[ElectroClaret]

Prince Charles tests positive, displaying mild symptoms.
(BBC)

A big round of thanks to Inchy and his colleagues.

[JohnMac]

Keep the good work going Inchy and I'll let you buy me a pint sometime soon!

[paulatky]

I gave up trying to do it anything other than 1 step more realistic. If you assume the infection happens halfway through the 5 day period, the "half" scenario of cases stays below 100. But instead of 406, you get 99,000+ in the "full" scenario.

What they are saying now is that “viral load” is a factor.

If say you were at a night club and got infections from 3 different people you are likely to have more severe symptoms than if you caught from talking at close quarters with a neighbour

[Spijed]

What they are saying now is that “viral load” is a factor.

If say you were at a night club and got infections from 3 different people you are likely to have more severe symptoms than if you caught from talking at close quarters with a neighbour

Paulatky, don't get too disheartened about the economy as it'll recover very, very quickly.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeikleb ... a813a51b40

[thatdberight]

What they are saying now is that “viral load” is a factor.

If say you were at a night club and got infections from 3 different people you are likely to have more severe symptoms than if you caught from talking at close quarters with a neighbour

Yes. This is why medical staff are, sadly, at greater risk. I think this has been known since early on in this piece when Chinese medics were worse affected than would be explained just by transmission. I certainly heard it mentioned "way back" then.

[FactualFrank]

Prince Charles tests positive, displaying mild symptoms.

Prince Andrew suspected to have Co-Ed 16.

[NottsClaret]

Yes. This is why medical staff are, sadly, at greater risk. I think this has been known since early on in this piece when Chinese medics were worse affected than would be explained just by transmission. I certainly heard it mentioned "way back" then.

It's an interesting aspect to it, one I don't understand at all. Happy to read a link or hear an explanation of how this all works.

I remember Nadine Dorries' mum (aged 84 - a few health issues) just being a bit poorly for a day or two then feeling better, makes you think there's different ways of getting it, or is it just genetic pot luck?

[Heathclaret]

Prince Andrew suspected to have Co-Ed 16.

[thatdberight]

It's an interesting aspect to it, one I don't understand at all. Happy to read a link or hear an explanation of how this all works.

I remember Nadine Dorries' mum (aged 84 - a few health issues) just being a bit poorly for a day or two then feeling better, makes you think there's different ways of getting it, or is it just genetic pot luck?

You need a scientist for that, sorry. Found this quote though from Professor Willem van Schaik, Professor in Microbiology and Infection at the University of Birmingham

“...seems likely that we need to breathe in something like a few hundred or thousands of SARS-CoV-2 particles to develop symptoms. This would be a relatively low infective dose and could explain why the virus is spreading relatively efficiently. On the basis of previous work on SARS and MERS coronaviruses, we know that exposure to higher doses are associated with a worse outcome and this may be likely in the case of Covid-19 as well. This means that health care workers that care for Covid-19 patients are at a particularly high risk as they are more likely to be exposed to a higher number of viral particles..."

[Zlatan]

It's an interesting aspect to it, one I don't understand at all. Happy to read a link or hear an explanation of how this all works.

I remember Nadine Dorries' mum (aged 84 - a few health issues) just being a bit poorly for a day or two then feeling better, makes you think there's different ways of getting it, or is it just genetic pot luck?

I’m just guessing here, and I’m happy to be corrected.

I think though that the virus could be considered to have a “half life” of a sort, I.e. immediately after leaving the body in a droplet or fluid it could be considered to be at its most potent. After 3 hours (arbitrary value) it has lost half its potency, then eventually after 12 hours it’s dead - with the times dependant upon whatever surface it’s settled on.

So repeated exposure to fresh virus would be compounded for health care workers, whereas incidental exposure on the bus could be at half way through the life cycle of the virus so not as potent.

Like I said, educated guesswork going on, and happy to be corrected.

[FactualFrank]

I’m just guessing here, and I’m happy to be corrected.

I think though that the virus could be considered to have a “half life” of a sort, I.e. immediately after leaving the body in a droplet or fluid it could be considered to be at its most potent. After 3 hours (arbitrary value) it has lost half its potency, then eventually after 12 hours it’s dead - with the times dependant upon whatever surface it’s settled on.

So repeated exposure to fresh virus would be compounded for health care workers, whereas incidental exposure on the bus could be at half way through the life cycle of the virus so not as potent.

Like I said, educated guesswork going on, and happy to be corrected.

This seems to explain it pretty well, also known as ‘infectious dose’
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... iral-load/

Meaning, even if we did catch it, if it was from one person, it's likely to be as less severe, than if you were in a crowd of people and caught mutiple doses.

[thatdberight]

I’m just guessing here, and I’m happy to be corrected.

I think though that the virus could be considered to have a “half life” of a sort, I.e. immediately after leaving the body in a droplet or fluid it could be considered to be at its most potent. After 3 hours (arbitrary value) it has lost half its potency, then eventually after 12 hours it’s dead - with the times dependant upon whatever surface it’s settled on.

So repeated exposure to fresh virus would be compounded for health care workers, whereas incidental exposure on the bus could be at half way through the life cycle of the virus so not as potent.

Like I said, educated guesswork going on, and happy to be corrected.

I thought it was just about numbers.

The more you take in at first, the more quickly it can multiply and the more damage it can cause before the body's anti-viral systems start to try to fight back.

[FactualFrank]

Woman, 21, ‘with no pre-existing conditions dies of coronavirus’

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/25/woman-21 ... -12454333/

[Pimlico_Claret]

Prince Charles tests positive, displaying mild symptoms.
(BBC)
Really glad he got tested, suppose he'll be returning to the front line of the NHS when he's better, oh, hang on, they aren't being tested due to a shortage.

[Mala591]

I thought it was just about numbers.

The more you take in at first, the more quickly it can multiply and the more damage it can cause before the body's anti-viral systems start to try to fight back.

Some clever person might take this theory to its rational conclusion and suggest that a 'homeopathic' dose of Covid-19 might be the best way of building up immunity before a fully tested vaccine is available.

[tiger76]

Woman, 21, ‘with no pre-existing conditions dies of coronavirus’

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/25/woman-21 ... -12454333/

Just seen that on the lunchtime news,if this isn't a wake-up call,then nothing will be.

6 more deaths in Scotland alone today,and 51 patients in intensive care,it's fair to assume the English figures will be much higher when they're revealed later,it appears the curve is climbing,which was predicted sadly.

[FactualFrank]

Just seen that on the lunchtime news,if this isn't a wake-up call,then nothing will be.

6 more deaths in Scotland alone today,and 51 patients in intensive care,it's fair to assume the English figures will be much higher when they're revealed later,it appears the curve is climbing,which was predicted sadly.

I mentioned to someone the other day, that with regards to people staying at home, some will only start taking it seriously once someone close to them has died. That's unfortunately what it will take.

[thatdberight]

Some clever person might take this theory to its rational conclusion and suggest that a 'homeopathic' dose of Covid-19 might be the best way of building up immunity before a fully tested vaccine is available.

Homeopathy and clever in the same sentence. Fair play. Not easy to do..

[uptheclarets]

Paulatky, don't get too disheartened about the economy as it'll recover very, very quickly.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeikleb ... a813a51b40

As Grumps would say nobody knows but as I say everyone could make an educated guess based on the facts

My educated guess is we are heading for a worldwide recession the scale of which has never been seen before. 80% of the world’s population will be on ULA - universal living allowance which will be just the bare minimum needed to exist.

Was the virus actually released from a laboratory in Wahun as an excuse for the world economy crashing as some thought it would anyway before this crisis

[thatdberight]

As Grumps would say nobody knows but as I say everyone could make an educated guess based on the facts

My educated guess is we are heading for a worldwide recession the scale of which has never been seen before. 80% of the world’s population will be on ULA - universal living allowance which will be just the bare minimum needed to exist.

Was the virus actually released from a laboratory in Wahun as an excuse for the world economy crashing as some thought it would anyway before this crisis

Everyone "could" make an educated guess.

But some choose to spout conspiracy theories. Especially those who know lots about it. But can't even spell the name of the city where it probably originated.

[Paul Waine]

Quote from Metro - link above:

"The youngest person in the UK to have died after contracting coronavirus was an 18-year-old, in Coventry, West Midlands. However, doctors said he had ‘significant underlying health issues’ and that the virus was not linked to the cause of his death."

So, "virus not linked to cause of death...." Was virus on death certificate? How does "got virus, but not linked to cause of death" figure in the covid-19 deaths stats?

[Lowbankclaret]

Just finished my 12.5 hour shift. Things are ramping up. Patients are coming in. Every referral I had today was Covid related. Beds are not an issue yet but it’s inevitable they are going to be.

It’s not just the old. 30s, 40s and 50s as well.
No one is doing well.

I keep telling myself that I am young and fit and I’m only seeing the unwell patients and many many more are managing in the community but it’s hard when that’s all you see.

Everyone is scared in ICU. When the calmest of the calm ICU consultants are scared, I’m scared.

Like others I don’t really know what to say apart from everyone is behind you and supporting you.

You do a tremendous job.

I hope the Government keep you supplied with PPE.

[Mala591]

Homeopathy and clever in the same sentence. Fair play. Not easy to do..

Mitchell and Webb did manage to combine homeopathy and clever

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HMGIbOGu8q0

'Two more homeopathic lagers please'

[thatdberight]

Always ask yourself in these situations, "Cui Sarkisian"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52038814

[ecc]

I can but echo the comments from my fellow Clarets:

Inchy, we cannot begin to thank you and fellow health workers in the UK and throughout the world enough.

It's very humbling.

We can only help you by staying at home to try to stem the spread of this damn virus. I say "only" because we'd all like to help you concretely, right now. But we can't. However, by following the instructions we will, God willing, slow down the influx of ill people.

[Funkydrummer]

I am in awe of the NHS and all it's staff and all that they do. I have 2 daughters, 1 son-in-law and a
partner who all work in the NHS and they are really pulling their tripe out to care and protect us.

Unfortunately I am not now able to see any of them, but social media is a godsend in this instance.

I raise my hat to them, one and all and wish them complete safety.

GOD BLESS YOU ALL.

[evensteadiereddie]

By God, Inchy, you guys will be worth every penny - and a lot more - of your next pay rise. I know you don't do it for the money - far from it - but I really hope your, and other key workers' efforts are remembered.
I'm not talking about politics, I'm talking about decency.

[mdd2]

Yes. This is why medical staff are, sadly, at greater risk. I think this has been known since early on in this piece when Chinese medics were worse affected than would be explained just by transmission. I certainly heard it mentioned "way back" then.

also a problem when you are very close as you are when having your eyes examined-the guy who sussed this was a Chinese Ophthalmologist
ENT surgeons very close when examining throat; anaesthetists and Intensivists when intubating the airway are very prone to get a big dose unless they have proper PPE.

[Zlatan]

Mitchell and Webb did manage to combine homeopathy and clever

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HMGIbOGu8q0

'Two more homeopathic lagers please'

that is bloody hilarious

[Spijed]

As Grumps would say nobody knows but as I say everyone could make an educated guess based on the facts

My educated guess is we are heading for a worldwide recession the scale of which has never been seen before. 80% of the world’s population will be on ULA - universal living allowance which will be just the bare minimum needed to exist.

Was the virus actually released from a laboratory in Wahun as an excuse for the world economy crashing as some thought it would anyway before this crisis

But when money becomes cheap the stock market recovers very quickly as was the case yesterday

[mdd2]

Some clever person might take this theory to its rational conclusion and suggest that a 'homeopathic' dose of Covid-19 might be the best way of building up immunity before a fully tested vaccine is available.

There are three things to infection 1) how virulent is the bug 2) amount of the bug taken in as well as the portal of entry-so swallowing this bug maybe less harmful than inhaling it 3) the host immune system, hence those with lowered immunity more likely to have it bad.
Also a possible 4) there is also some concern around a hyperimmune response to this and all the chemicals released harming your organs-a bit like what can happen with chemotherapy when a large amount of the cancer cells are killed which then poisons the body.
Logic says that if you have for example one virus infecting a cell that then produces 10 new viruses that then infect 10 more cells and so on the immune system has a better chance of mounting a response to give a mild illness than if at the outset 100 viruses infect 100 cells which produce 1,000 viruses that then infect 1,000 cells

[tiger76]

Promising noises from a leading scientist,hope he's right in his predictions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52035615

Still be a tough few months to come for the whole country,but if this outbreak can be confined to local hotspots,it'll help the health services immensely.

If that involves people sitting indoors,it's a small price to pay.

[FactualFrank]

Coronavirus test: UK to make 15-minute at-home kits available within days.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 24741.html

[NottsClaret]

Coronavirus test: UK to make 15-minute at-home kits available within days.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 24741.html

Really good news, at least for moving back towards normality - compared to where we are now. It'll be fascinating to see how many people have already had this virus without knowing.

[1HappyClaret]

Really good news, at least for moving back towards normality - compared to where we are now. It'll be fascinating to see how many people have already had this virus without knowing.

These kits haven’t been fully tested yet and may not be suitable so don’t get your hopes yet.

As for the spread of this virus. The UK is not taking it seriously enough. It should be stay at home unless your job is critical to beating this virus. The idea that everyone who can’t work at home should go to work is ludicrous.

You may be able to stay 2 meters apart at work but it is getting to work that is causing the problem and will lead to further spread.

It will cause this situation to last longer than it should if we do a proper lock down.

[Dy1geo]

The worrying aspect is the Global shortage of tests and there are NHS workers self isolating and have been for days that need to be tested. I would hope that our club isn’t using up these valuable tests as part of a weekly medical check and only test the players and staff at the first sign of symptoms.

[tiger76]

Coronavirus test: UK to make 15-minute at-home kits available within days.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 24741.html

I don't want to dash your hopes FF,but it will likely be weeks not days.

Whitty: Tests won't be available online next week
There has been talk of antibody tests being available to buy online. These tests would allow people to see if they have been infected - meaning they should then be immune.

Chief medical officer Chris Whitty says: “Once we are confident of which tests work… there is a hierarchy of things we need to do.”

First, experts will need to assess what proportion of people get coronavirus without any syptoms, he says.

Then it will be a case of testing NHS workers to “work out who is immune to this infection and who isn’t”, then moving from there to others.

But Prof Whitty adds: “I do not think this is something we will suddenly be ordering online for next week."

[NottsClaret]

As for the spread of this virus. The UK is not taking it seriously enough. It should be stay at home unless your job is critical to beating this virus. The idea that everyone who can’t work at home should go to work is ludicrous.

You may be able to stay 2 meters apart at work but it is getting to work that is causing the problem and will lead to further spread.

It will cause this situation to last longer than it should if we do a proper lock down.

A 'proper lock down' isn't the aim. The virus isn't going to disappear, it's here now and it's here to stay. So if people can go to work while not pushing cases to a level where they overload the NHS that's what will happen.

We're getting into a bit of an isolation frenzy but people need to be sensible and realistic. We aren't going to beat Covid19, we're just going to adapt to live with it. The antibody testing - initially for NHS staff - will prove invaluable.

But there's going to be peaks and troughs and I reckon we'll have reached 'herd immunity' levels of infection before we ever get to a widespread vaccine.

[mdd2]

We are also getting into a testing frenzy. Shortage of testing kits for something that did not exist 3 months ago. Quite remarkable that we know what it is, can test for it will soon be able to test people and advise that they have had it and are likely immune, and we are already testing a vaccine.