Covid-19
Re: Covid-19
Testing is key - as outlined by all the medical professional bodies - because the doctors, nurses and other frontline staff they represent are needed to care for the ever growing hospital admissions...which for the next few weeks are going to rise even faster.
At the moment many frontline staff have not been tested but a big percentage are self isolating because either they have had symptoms or their families have.
It’s been shown in some of the early data on the testing that only 15% had the virus which means 85% are fit to work...so if that data is reliable then effectively 85% of those doctors, nurses etc self isolating could be working and caring for those who have got the virus.
This is one of the reasons testing is key to deal with the next few weeks where we seem to heading for the peak of admissions.
On a general population level once you have dealt with the frontline NHS staff in terms of testing them all you can start testing other parts of the population which allows the gradual lifting of lockdown measures, returning to work etc.
At the moment many frontline staff have not been tested but a big percentage are self isolating because either they have had symptoms or their families have.
It’s been shown in some of the early data on the testing that only 15% had the virus which means 85% are fit to work...so if that data is reliable then effectively 85% of those doctors, nurses etc self isolating could be working and caring for those who have got the virus.
This is one of the reasons testing is key to deal with the next few weeks where we seem to heading for the peak of admissions.
On a general population level once you have dealt with the frontline NHS staff in terms of testing them all you can start testing other parts of the population which allows the gradual lifting of lockdown measures, returning to work etc.
This user liked this post: KateR
Re: Covid-19
CombatClaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:37 amSome good backpedaling...
Tell me why I should not believe the numbers coming out of South Korea. The highest country in Asia on the Democracy Index who are being praised worldwide for it's testing and response?
Oh sorry I forgot the mighty South Korea leaders in world democracy and advanced infrastructure , oh and they eat dog!
Wake up no in fact.
Backpeddle yourself to bed kid.
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Re: Covid-19
Oh good. We have another one on this thread.
Re: Covid-19
That'd be a "no" then.
Re: Covid-19
The problem with testing for the virus is what method you use and its specificity-how many positive results come from those who are shown NOT to have it and the sensitivity-how many of those who have the virus, test negative which I have heard is up to 30%. But it depends on 1) which test and 2) which lab does it not to mention 3) how well the swabs are taken and how quickly they get to the lab for testing. Is a throat swab better than a nasal one?
Now I have no idea about the reliability of the test which does not matter a jot for 1) mild cases-stay at home until you are better but a problem with 2) health care workers could be testing negative returning to work when in reality they have it.
The really sick will be diagnosed clinically and on X-rays, CT scans and as I have posted before-in China a pretty large percentage tested negative initially even when the radiologist said the scans were in keeping with Corvid-19.
There is a danger that ill-informed public opinion fed by the media could push us along a pathway we should not be on. As one of the experts said not to test is better than testing with a bad test.
Now I have no idea about the reliability of the test which does not matter a jot for 1) mild cases-stay at home until you are better but a problem with 2) health care workers could be testing negative returning to work when in reality they have it.
The really sick will be diagnosed clinically and on X-rays, CT scans and as I have posted before-in China a pretty large percentage tested negative initially even when the radiologist said the scans were in keeping with Corvid-19.
There is a danger that ill-informed public opinion fed by the media could push us along a pathway we should not be on. As one of the experts said not to test is better than testing with a bad test.
This user liked this post: KateR
Re: Covid-19
God forbid this had been our government who tried to cover the initial outbreak up. Imagine the wet lettuce squad in pandemonium. But it was China so it doesn't matter , all is forgiven let's focus on Boris and blame him. I will go back to my cave now or as I like to call it reality.
Re: Covid-19
guys,
thank you for the pleasant feedback, much appreciated
thank you for the pleasant feedback, much appreciated
Re: Covid-19
Thing is they are world leaders in many areas - infrastructure, technology etc.
They also mobilised their resources pretty remarkably to deal with Covid 19....and it worked in limiting deaths.
Given they had the outbreak earlier than us are you seriously saying that we can not learn from a country like South Korea simply because you clearly no very little about the country ?
These 2 users liked this post: KateR CombatClaret
Re: Covid-19
"Thing is they are world leaders in many areas - infrastructure, technology etc."
lol, I really was waiting to see who might enlighten him.
lol, I really was waiting to see who might enlighten him.
Last edited by KateR on Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Covid-19
Ummm... They're one of the poster childs for advanced infrastructure... For example they lead the world in internet speed both fiber and cellular.
It's hard to argue in the face of such ignorance.
Re: Covid-19
All whilst maintaining the lovely death penalty . How ironic.TVC15 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:17 amThing is they are world leaders in many areas - infrastructure, technology etc.
They also mobilised their resources pretty remarkably to deal with Covid 19....and it worked in limiting deaths.
Given they had the outbreak earlier than us are you seriously saying that we can not learn from a country like South Korea simply because you clearly no very little about the country ?
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Re: Covid-19
am amazed he's still getting up from three hefty blows, some people love punishment
Re: Covid-19
Lovely death penalty.
How ironic.
Morons but you wouldn't see that would you?
How ironic.
Morons but you wouldn't see that would you?
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Re: Covid-19
No worries. I've no prooblem admitting I don't like the Tories, so I'm probably quicker to criticise than someone who does. I'm not so biased that I want to attack them at every turn though. I certainly think they're doing a lot better than the US (and Brazil!)thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:18 amI know. It's ridiculous having to try and keep up. I didn't intend to flame at you (and indeed my first post was only {as you said - part of} the follow up tweet by Peston himself). Even putting aside those on here with problems, it just seems that there are lots of posters on here who only post what suits a broader agenda and who, while probably having never done anything very complicated themselves, don't even for a minute think just how complex some of these chains of decision and information are. That wasn't really meant at you.
Re: Covid-19
Not really sure what the death penalty has got to do with Covid 19.
If that was one of the criteria for not learning from other countries about how to deal with the virus we would be ruling out most of the world given 60% of the population currently live in countries which still have the death penalty
(I’m glad we don’t live in one of those countries by the way before you go off on another tangent- death penalty, eating dogs - what next ? Smaller eyes ?)
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Re: Covid-19
It's not much of a list - but it's a start.HieronymousBoschHobs wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:34 amNo worries. I've no prooblem admitting I don't like the Tories, so I'm probably quicker to criticise than someone who does. I'm not so biased that I want to attack them at every turn though. I certainly think they're doing a lot better than the US (and Brazil!)
Every liberal's favourite, "Why aren't we more like them?" country, Sweden seem to be slipping down the list of people we must be more like as well. Although that may also be to do with other problems that no-one wants to talk about too much.
Re: Covid-19
Tony didn't ask me anything.
I feel fine and always feel worse when I wake up.
Will you please put your predictive to English or delete everything with a z at the end off the list.
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Re: Covid-19
Also doesn't know the history of the "-ize" ending and that it's the UK which should harmonize (sic) with the US rather than the other way around.
This user liked this post: Bfcboyo
Re: Covid-19
They call me Mr Tangent.TVC15 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:39 amNot really sure what the death penalty has got to do with Covid 19.
If that was one of the criteria for not learning from other countries about how to deal with the virus we would be ruling out most of the world given 60% of the population currently live in countries which still have the death penalty
(I’m glad we don’t live in one of those countries by the way before you go off on another tangent- death penalty, eating dogs - what next ? Smaller eyes ?)
The point was are these countries as open , honest and as democratic as ours. I doubt it , not because of the dog or the death penalty but because they are not as free thinking and open globally as we are.
If this virus originated in the UK , France or Germany for example a full investigation and answers would be explained at every opportunity to the world. China and S Korea are not as open to the world community as they could be.
But let's all focus on blaming our government is what I'm seeing.
Re: Covid-19
I just knew you get back to spelling sooner or later, it's an American computer, if speaking American is one of those criteria's for pressing the foe button please go ahead because I won't be changing it.
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Re: Covid-19
now you're just flirting
Re: Covid-19
Use your Chinese phone instead. It predicts much better.
愚人节快乐晚安都保持安全
Re: Covid-19
The lady on the downing Street briefing yesterday explained why we won't be testing the general public anytime soon. If you are at home with symptoms and self isolating, if someone came and gave you a test, and it was positive, the advice would only be to continue doing what you are doing. Therefore a waste of a test, and more importantly a waste of a medical professionals time.TVC15 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:45 amTesting is key - as outlined by all the medical professional bodies - because the doctors, nurses and other frontline staff they represent are needed to care for the ever growing hospital admissions...which for the next few weeks are going to rise even faster.
At the moment many frontline staff have not been tested but a big percentage are self isolating because either they have had symptoms or their families have.
It’s been shown in some of the early data on the testing that only 15% had the virus which means 85% are fit to work...so if that data is reliable then effectively 85% of those doctors, nurses etc self isolating could be working and caring for those who have got the virus.
This is one of the reasons testing is key to deal with the next few weeks where we seem to heading for the peak of admissions.
On a general population level once you have dealt with the frontline NHS staff in terms of testing them all you can start testing other parts of the population which allows the gradual lifting of lockdown measures, returning to work etc.
When postal tests become widely available then members of the public could test themselves, until then it will be frontline staff and patients already in hospital who will be tested.
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Re: Covid-19
I have to agree with this article , that is what the data is saying.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11966517
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11966517
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Re: Covid-19
Bfcboyo was on fine form last night. Sadly, I think he'll be sleeping off a hangover and we won't see him until later today.
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Re: Covid-19
There really are some selfish dicks knocking about:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... fJUN1J6B5Q
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... fJUN1J6B5Q
Re: Covid-19
10,000 dead in UK by next week? At least he says he's not a doctor or scientistLowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:02 amI have to agree with this article , that is what the data is saying.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11966517
If you watch every news program, read every article on the Internet, eventually you will find one that you agree with
Why do you never post positive news or articles?
This user liked this post: Zlatan
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Re: Covid-19
Probably due to being an oddball who gets turned on by death numbers
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Re: Covid-19
Don't your setting my asthma off. And thanks for the compliments .TheFamilyCat wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:45 amBfcboyo was on fine form last night. Sadly, I think he'll be sleeping off a hangover and we won't see him until later today.
But as the lyrics go .
Baby , you ain't seen nothing yet.
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Re: Covid-19
Good morning, Grumps. What Conway said is he isn't a doctor or an epidemiologist. He is a "scientist" if the ability to understand and use mathematics is a scientific skill. (You may be familiar with the term STEM subjects: Science, Technology, Engineering, Maths).
All Conway is doing is analysing the numbers. Any mathematician can do this. There's nothing wrong with his analysis.
The 2 key questions, in my view, are: (1) how "good" is the data, including are all the countries collecting and reporting the same things in their data? (2) what actions might impact on the growth paths? e.g. are all "lockdowns" the same in every country? do some countries have cultural behaviours that have a positive or negative impact on growth paths? are these cultural differences significant for the growth of covid-19 infections?
Re: Covid-19
If any mathematician could do it, surely all the results would be the same? It's probably that they are just dealing with the figures, not the science, and variables behind those figures.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:57 amGood morning, Grumps. What Conway said is he isn't a doctor or an epidemiologist. He is a "scientist" if the ability to understand and use mathematics is a scientific skill. (You may be familiar with the term STEM subjects: Science, Technology, Engineering, Maths).
All Conway is doing is analysing the numbers. Any mathematician can do this. There's nothing wrong with his analysis.
The 2 key questions, in my view, are: (1) how "good" is the data, including are all the countries collecting and reporting the same things in their data? (2) what actions might impact on the growth paths? e.g. are all "lockdowns" the same in every country? do some countries have cultural behaviours that have a positive or negative impact on growth paths? are these cultural differences significant for the growth of covid-19 infections?
If we got to 10k by next week, we'd be the worse country in the world, and none of the expert advice suggests we are in that position, in fact it's the opposite. So I don't think there is anything wrong in questioning that article.
Re: Covid-19
Can I just defend the point that S and N Korea , China , Russia and plenty of other countries to boot are nowhere near as open and transparent as the UK , France , Germany and a whole lot of others when it comes to reporting or allowing local issues onto the world stage.
They are at varying stages behind us with plenty of economic , human rights , animal cruelty , death penalty , government propaganda and not very far ahead on many positive notes.
Now if you want to defend the dog and cat eating , making statistics up , letting deadly diseases spread globally , capital punishment backing nations to score little 1 ups for your tea parties agenda , crack on as it will make you look silly in the long run when the truth is all out.
Then I will start pulling quotes.
They are at varying stages behind us with plenty of economic , human rights , animal cruelty , death penalty , government propaganda and not very far ahead on many positive notes.
Now if you want to defend the dog and cat eating , making statistics up , letting deadly diseases spread globally , capital punishment backing nations to score little 1 ups for your tea parties agenda , crack on as it will make you look silly in the long run when the truth is all out.
Then I will start pulling quotes.
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Re: Covid-19
It only took Italy 13 days to get from 1,800 deaths to 10,000.Grumps wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:09 amIf any mathematician could do it, surely all the results would be the same? It's probably that they are just dealing with the figures, not the science, and variables behind those figures.
If we got to 10k by next week, we'd be the worse country in the world, and none of the expert advice suggests we are in that position, in fact it's the opposite. So I don't think there is anything wrong in questioning that article.
Of course there are ifs and buts and other possibilities but it's not some outlandish number that doesn't feature in the reasonable spread of where it could go in the next little while even if it's not the central projection.
Re: Covid-19
If what you say is correct, how do you expect the truth to come out?Bfcboyo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:10 amCan I just defend the point that S and N Korea , China , Russia and plenty of other countries to boot are nowhere near as open and transparent as the UK , France , Germany and a whole lot of others when it comes to reporting or allowing local issues onto the world stage.
They are at varying stages behind us with plenty of economic , human rights , animal cruelty , death penalty , government propaganda and not very far ahead on many positive notes.
Now if you want to defend the dog and cat eating , making statistics up , letting deadly diseases spread globally , capital punishment backing nations to score little 1 ups for your tea parties agenda , crack on as it will make you look silly in the long run when the truth is all out.
Then I will start pulling quotes.
Re: Covid-19
That is you getting kicked under the dining table tonight , after everything I do for you.TheFamilyCat wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:45 amBfcboyo was on fine form last night. Sadly, I think he'll be sleeping off a hangover and we won't see him until later today.
Re: Covid-19
I get that, but 13 days isn't next weekthatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:17 amIt only took Italy 13 days to get from 1,800 deaths to 10,000.
Of course there are ifs and buts and other possibilities but it's not some outlandish number that doesn't feature in the reasonable spread of where it could go in the next little while even if it's not the central projection.
Re: Covid-19
Stop embarrassing yourself - you got South Korea and North Korea mixed up....and then been backtracking ever since.
Now you are bringing in the likes of China, Russia and North Korea and stating the bleeding obvious which nobody is denying.
What exactly do you think South Korea have hidden ? They have been praised by other countries for their transparency policies which many other countries have adopted....in the same way they have been held up as an example in lots of other areas.
They are a world leader in many areas and they have more in common with the likes of Japan than the countries you mention. South Korea has the death penalty just like most of America and 60% of the world’s population do.
You talk about them like they are a third world communist state who only eat cats and dogs.
Stick to subjects you know something about - whatever these are.
Now you are bringing in the likes of China, Russia and North Korea and stating the bleeding obvious which nobody is denying.
What exactly do you think South Korea have hidden ? They have been praised by other countries for their transparency policies which many other countries have adopted....in the same way they have been held up as an example in lots of other areas.
They are a world leader in many areas and they have more in common with the likes of Japan than the countries you mention. South Korea has the death penalty just like most of America and 60% of the world’s population do.
You talk about them like they are a third world communist state who only eat cats and dogs.
Stick to subjects you know something about - whatever these are.
Re: Covid-19
With regards testing, my worry is the accuracy rate. The guy on the cruise ship, David Abel was his name who with his wife got Covid 19 came down with acute pneumonia and he received fantastic care in Japan. After his symptoms eased he was tested on a daily basis and he said it made him gag it was that bad. One day he tested negative but the next day he was positive again and to be discharged he needed two or three days of negative tests. He is now back in the U.K.
My point is NHS workers should be first but unless you do two or three successive days testing to be sure it is too risky to allow them back around vulnerable patients.
Patience is the key in that we have to carry on what we are doing until the anti body test is up and running and gradually life then can get back to some kind of normality.
My point is NHS workers should be first but unless you do two or three successive days testing to be sure it is too risky to allow them back around vulnerable patients.
Patience is the key in that we have to carry on what we are doing until the anti body test is up and running and gradually life then can get back to some kind of normality.
This user liked this post: mdd2
Re: Covid-19
Saying 60% of the worlds population have the death penalty is one of the dumbest combination of population statistics vs governments that have policies I have ever seen.TVC15 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:22 amStop embarrassing yourself - you got South Korea and North Korea mixed up....and then been backtracking ever since.
Now you are bringing in the likes of China, Russia and North Korea and stating the bleeding obvious which nobody is denying.
What exactly do you think South Korea have hidden ? They have been praised by other countries for their transparency policies which many other countries have adopted....in the same way they have been held up as an example in lots of other areas.
They are a world leader in many areas and they have more in common with the likes of Japan than the countries you mention. South Korea has the death penalty just like most of America and 60% of the world’s population do.
You talk about them like they are a third world communist state who only eat cats and dogs.
Stick to subjects you know something about - whatever these are.
I am for the death penalty by the way but used it contradicting myself as I see that is how you all like to try and score points at every opportunity when it suits.
As for being embarrassed, get real .