Covid-19

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Paul Waine
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Fri May 22, 2020 8:07 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:53 pm
I doubt those arriving by air will have their own transport, its just playing at it tbh.
Hire car, I imagine. Though I don't know what the situation will be if the arriving visitor hasn't got a driving license.... I'm sure someone will see ty=he opportunity in "private hire to quarantine" cabs - driver in full ppe, of course.

Paul Waine
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Fri May 22, 2020 8:09 pm

Cirrus_Minor wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:08 pm
One of my close neighbours, in his early eighties, had been struggling a bit and needed carers for the last couple of years. They moved him into a care home temporarily whilst he had a walk in shower fitted. He caught coronavirus in the care home. Found out yesterday that he died in hospital during the week.
RIP, C_M's neighbour. :(

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 8:19 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:53 pm
I doubt those arriving by air will have their own transport, its just playing at it tbh.
No exactly and assuming they don't they have to take public transport to their place of accommodation,kinda defeats the purpose of quarantine. :?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Fri May 22, 2020 8:22 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:19 pm
No exactly and assuming they don't they have to take public transport to their place of accommodation,kinda defeats the purpose of quarantine. :?
My thoughts exactly.... "we think you might have the virus, so can you isolate for a fortnight please, but before you do can you get on this busy train, bus, tube or tram, iam sure it'll be OK".

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Re: Covid-19

Post by BurningBeard » Fri May 22, 2020 8:23 pm

Police spoke to Cummings after he broke lockdown regs to travel from London to Durham...


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... s-lockdown

Do as we say, not as we do.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Claretincraven » Fri May 22, 2020 8:27 pm

Earlier this week I played golf with a mate who is a retired GP. Unsurprisingly Coronavirus came up in our conversation as we walked round. He mentioned that over the winter of 2017 - 2018 there were over 50,000 excess winter deaths. I didn't know what to make of that but just googled it. Sure enough there is an Office for National Statistics report which confirms the actual figure was 50,100 above average. I wish I was capable of adding a link, but I cant. If you dont believe me just google it. It maybe puts a lot of what has been said into perspective, especially given the weight attached to the current excess deaths figure which I believe is similar.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 8:30 pm

BurningBeard wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:23 pm
Police spoke to Cummings after he broke lockdown regs to travel from London to Durham...


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... s-lockdown

Do as we say, not as we do.
Crazy is it any wonder no one is taking lockdown seriously when countless senior officials traipse up and down the country.

Given the fact that others have resigned/been pushed is Cummings position tenable?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Fri May 22, 2020 8:31 pm

dsr wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 4:37 pm
Yep, that's the beauty of it. Even if the government makes every single decision from now on exactly in accordance with your views, you can still slate them for ever on the grounds that the recession is going to kill millions and no-one would have died (apart from perhaps a few with coronavirus caused by someone other than the government) if Labour had been in power.
No. I just said that if they introduce austerity for the poor again without spreading the burden beyond the middle class again, then we’ll struggle to get beyond the recession, and more people will die. Fighting the virus hasn’t exactly been a national effort so far, with lots of families left without cover by the government. I don’t believe (but I’ll hold my hands up if they do) they’ll ask the very rich to make much of a contribution at all, let alone one commensurate with how much more money they have than everyone else.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by TheFamilyCat » Fri May 22, 2020 8:44 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:22 pm
My thoughts exactly.... "we think you might have the virus, so can you isolate for a fortnight please, but before you do can you get on this busy train, bus, tube or tram, iam sure it'll be OK".
"Oh, and nobody willactually check if you are isolating but please do."

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 8:49 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:44 pm
"Oh, and nobody willactually check if you are isolating but please do."
If it wasn't so serious i'd find this Monty Pythonesque antics amusing,with apologies to the living Pythons.

Forgive me if i'm being dense but if no-one's checking on you how can any fines be levied,and how will they know you've been breaching the quarantine.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by jrgbfc » Fri May 22, 2020 8:53 pm

I assume Dominic Cummings will be forced to resign the same way the chief scientist was?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Fri May 22, 2020 8:59 pm

He has to resign, if he doesn't Johnson has to sack him or back him, if he backs him he is supporting unlawful activities.

Grumps
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Fri May 22, 2020 9:03 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:44 pm
"Oh, and nobody willactually check if you are isolating but please do."
They can ring your mobile :lol:
I had to laugh when the home sec said the police would enforce it.... Has she not heard they'd already said they wouldn't be able to police it
Iam very much a tory, and supported the government through this, but I don't understand quarantining at airports, in its proposed format and certainly not from countries with a lower rate of infection than the UK.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 9:06 pm

Precedent's been set Cummings has to go,there's no way Johnson can defend him and retain credibility.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Fri May 22, 2020 9:11 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:51 pm
Labour and the Iraq war ?
Sure, and unsurprisingly they were backed to the hilt by the Tory Party.

Still a huge badge of shame for the Labour Party (one they only repudiated and apologised for twelve years after the fact). How long before the Tories express their guilt for austerity?

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 9:12 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:03 pm
They can ring your mobile :lol:
I had to laugh when the home sec said the police would enforce it.... Has she not heard they'd already said they wouldn't be able to police it
Iam very much a tory, and supported the government through this, but I don't understand quarantining at airports, in its proposed format and certainly not from countries with a lower rate of infection than the UK.
Just reading the full briefing-Travellers will have to provide their address in the UK so that border force staff can provide spot checks.

Where are all these border force staff being recruited from,they are struggling to patrol the channel as it is.

I'm baffled by the logic to this policy,but i hope to proved wrong for the sake of the country.

Grumps
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Fri May 22, 2020 9:13 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:06 pm
Precedent's been set Cummings has to go,there's no way Johnson can defend him and retain credibility.
Might be worth just holding fire, reports suggest it was within guidelines as he went to parents to isolate so they could help with childcare
Don't shoot the messenger, I don't know either way.

Paul Waine
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Fri May 22, 2020 9:15 pm

Claretincraven wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:27 pm
Earlier this week I played golf with a mate who is a retired GP. Unsurprisingly Coronavirus came up in our conversation as we walked round. He mentioned that over the winter of 2017 - 2018 there were over 50,000 excess winter deaths. I didn't know what to make of that but just googled it. Sure enough there is an Office for National Statistics report which confirms the actual figure was 50,100 above average. I wish I was capable of adding a link, but I cant. If you dont believe me just google it. It maybe puts a lot of what has been said into perspective, especially given the weight attached to the current excess deaths figure which I believe is similar.
Yes, this is correct. Of course, the "excess deaths" in current situation are "excess" over 5 year average. Simple maths without the 2017/18 excess deaths, is that today's excess deaths would be 10,000 greater excesses. 2017/18, of course, was bad winter flu - I think it was down to the flu strain being a little different than the vaccination that had been prepared. It was a "tough winter" for NHS.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 9:22 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:13 pm
Might be worth just holding fire, reports suggest it was within guidelines as he went to parents to isolate so they could help with childcare
Don't shoot the messenger, I don't know either way.
Depends where his main address was at the time,if he travelled there before he developed symptoms he might be able to justify his movements,if he travelled after developing symptoms then that's definitely a no no,i thought if you developed any corona symptoms no matter how mild you had to isolate for at least 7 days,either way his actions have placed the PM and government in a tricky position.

I am curious how it's taken several weeks for this to come to light however.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 9:29 pm

Charity seeks good home for 30,000 Easter eggs

There must be plenty of children (and probably a few adults) who would dream of having a mountain of chocolate at home.

Well, one charity has been trying to find a home for 30,000 Easter eggs before they go out of date in July.

The National Trust for Scotland (NTS) is desperately trying to get rid of its stockpile after the lockdown forced its egg hunts to be cancelled.

About half of the supply has already been donated to foodbanks, hospitals and community groups and NTS customer director Mark Bishop said he was glad some good could come out of the situation.

He said: "Easter eggs don't eat themselves and our operations teams have been finding places for them to go."

NTS calculated that its chocolate egg stockpile, with each box stacked on top of another, would have been three times the height of the tallest mountain it looks after, Ben Lawers - which is 3,984ft (1,214m).

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Billy Balfour » Fri May 22, 2020 9:32 pm

Cummings will have to go. The public will take a lot of crap from the political class, including gross incompetence, but they won't take hypocrisy.

We are all making sacrifices and many will lose their livelihoods by sticking to the lockdown rules both past and present ones, but we won't put up with one rule for us and different one for those who set the rules.
Last edited by Billy Balfour on Fri May 22, 2020 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

tiger76
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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 9:33 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:03 pm
They can ring your mobile :lol:
I had to laugh when the home sec said the police would enforce it.... Has she not heard they'd already said they wouldn't be able to police it
Iam very much a tory, and supported the government through this, but I don't understand quarantining at airports, in its proposed format and certainly not from countries with a lower rate of infection than the UK.
So the onus will be placed on the border force apparently.

A question from Channel 4's Liz Bates about what will happen to people, under the new quarantine rules, who don't have anywhere to stay and why the new rules are not being brought in immediately.

The home secretary says the timing is critical and the measures reflect the fact that although travel to the UK has been at an all-time low, many European countries are starting to re-open their countries.

The measures are designed to stop a second spike, she repeats.

In terms of the 8 June start, she stresses the government will be using all communication channels available to make sure people know what is expected of them.

The Border Force's Paul Lincoln says that if people don't have anywhere suitable to stay, his organisation will provide a "service at their expense" - effectively providing accommodation.

But he stresses that his organisation does have the power to stop someone from entering the country in the first place and suggests this may be necessary in a minority of cases.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 9:37 pm

Cases falling 'quite slowly'
Sir Patrick Vallance says the number of confirmed coronavirus cases is coming down, but "quite slowly".

He adds that the number of people in hospital and on ventilators is falling too. But it's not happening at the same rate across the country, he says.

Epidemic 'flat or declining in the UK'.

Sir Patrick Vallance, chief scientific adviser to the UK government, lays out details of the R number - the rate of infection. It's currently at 0.7 to 1. This means the epidemic is "either flat or declining" in the UK, he adds.

The number of new infections is about 61,000 per week at the moment, roughly one in 1,000 people, he says.

The R numbers still pretty high to consider easing the lockdown it's a calculated risk.

Death rates falling but only gradually.

Patel outlines coronavirus statistics
Priti Patel says 3,231,921 coronavirus tests have taken place in the UK. The total number of known deaths among those with coronavirus in all settings has increased by 351 to 36,393, she adds.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by tiger76 » Fri May 22, 2020 9:48 pm

Health official apologises to MPs over testing

This explains the change in testing policy we didn't have the capacity in March well i never.

The medical director of Public Health England, Prof Yvonne Doyle, has apologised to MPs for failing to provide them with the scientific rationale for abandoning the use of testing in the community.

The House of Commons Science Select Committee was told back in March that the decision was taken based on scientific evidence that had not yet been published - but would be made available to the committee.

The decision to abandon efforts to try to stamp out coronavirus by testing and isolating new cases was controversial - and seen by some as taken too soon.

In a specially convened session, Prof Doyle explained that the decision was made based on a number of pieces of research that indicated that the outbreak was about to get out of control.

The national co-ordinator of the UK's Covid-19 testing programme, Prof John Newton, also told the MPs that community testing was stopped because there was insufficient capacity.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Swizzlestick » Fri May 22, 2020 10:16 pm

Billy Balfour wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:32 pm
Cummings will have to go. The public will take a lot of crap from the political class, including gross incompetence, but they won't take hypocrisy.

We are all making sacrifices and many will lose their livelihoods by sticking to the lockdown rules both past and present ones, but we won't put up with one rule for us and different one for those who set the rules.
There’s no chance, guy’s Teflon. He should resign of course, he’s clearly broken the rules despite Kuenssberg’s ‘source’ telling her otherwise, but there’s even less chance of that happening,

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Claretincraven » Fri May 22, 2020 10:17 pm

Paul Waine wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:15 pm
Yes, this is correct. Of course, the "excess deaths" in current situation are "excess" over 5 year average. Simple maths without the 2017/18 excess deaths, is that today's excess deaths would be 10,000 greater excesses. 2017/18, of course, was bad winter flu - I think it was down to the flu strain being a little different than the vaccination that had been prepared. It was a "tough winter" for NHS.
But we arent actually any worse this year than we were then? Am I correct?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Fri May 22, 2020 10:28 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:06 pm
Precedent's been set Cummings has to go,there's no way Johnson can defend him and retain credibility.
Retain what?
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Steve-Harpers-perm » Fri May 22, 2020 11:07 pm

Billy Balfour wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:32 pm
Cummings will have to go. The public will take a lot of crap from the political class, including gross incompetence, but they won't take hypocrisy.

We are all making sacrifices and many will lose their livelihoods by sticking to the lockdown rules both past and present ones, but we won't put up with one rule for us and different one for those who set the rules.
Maybe he was just following the science and it led to his parents house?
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NewClaret
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Re: Covid-19

Post by NewClaret » Fri May 22, 2020 11:18 pm

Not read this thread for a while. Saw some Cummings news on BBC and had to have a sneaky peek. Left will be getting super excited over this :lol: :lol: :lol:

Going to be a fun few days!

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Re: Covid-19

Post by NewClaret » Fri May 22, 2020 11:22 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 9:13 pm
Might be worth just holding fire, reports suggest it was within guidelines as he went to parents to isolate so they could help with childcare
Don't shoot the messenger, I don't know either way.
Give up on this thread Grumps. It doesn’t deserve a man of your intellect or common sense.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Swizzlestick » Fri May 22, 2020 11:22 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:22 pm
Give up on this thread Grumps. It doesn’t deserve a man of your intellect or common sense.
Good ******* grief.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Fri May 22, 2020 11:40 pm

NewClaret wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:18 pm
Not read this thread for a while. Saw some Cummings news on BBC and had to have a sneaky peek. Left will be getting super excited over this :lol: :lol: :lol:

Going to be a fun few days!
Exactly my situation. I’ve got the popcorn out for the Cummings haters popping up, I see David Lidington is on Newsnight already.

The question on my mind is what you do with a 4 year old if both parents feel they will imminently become seriously ill (Cummings ended up being in bed for a week)? I can see many pundits saying what they cannot do within the rules, but none yet saying what he should have done in that situation. He can hardly put the nipper into care with strangers, nor can he isolate him in the flat, and friends may not take a child in who may become symptomatic. No easy options, and very selfless of the grandparents to offer help.

Saying that though, Cummings is hated by the left and right in equal measure, traditional Tories detest him. On that basis he is facing a tough battle.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Fri May 22, 2020 11:41 pm

Claretincraven wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:17 pm
But we arent actually any worse this year than we were then? Am I correct?
Covid-19 isn't over, so we don't have final excess deaths for this year. Mathematically, if 2017/18 had had zero excess deaths, then the 5 year average would be lower. We could also say, if excess deaths in 2020 and excess deaths in 2017/18 were both 50,000 above the average of previous years, excluding these two "outliers" then the 2 years would be equally as bad. Though, we are used to flu and we are used to "living with" flu. Covid-19, on the other hand, required a much more dramatic and disruptive response.

Stay safe. Stay well. Stay alert!

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sat May 23, 2020 12:03 am

Claretincraven wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:27 pm
Earlier this week I played golf with a mate who is a retired GP. Unsurprisingly Coronavirus came up in our conversation as we walked round. He mentioned that over the winter of 2017 - 2018 there were over 50,000 excess winter deaths. I didn't know what to make of that but just googled it. Sure enough there is an Office for National Statistics report which confirms the actual figure was 50,100 above average. I wish I was capable of adding a link, but I cant. If you dont believe me just google it. It maybe puts a lot of what has been said into perspective, especially given the weight attached to the current excess deaths figure which I believe is similar.
And of course the 50,000 excess deaths are excess over and above the 100,000 or so "normal" deaths from flu and pneumonia that happen every year.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sat May 23, 2020 12:07 am

Paul Waine wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:41 pm
Covid-19 isn't over, so we don't have final excess deaths for this year. Mathematically, if 2017/18 had had zero excess deaths, then the 5 year average would be lower. We could also say, if excess deaths in 2020 and excess deaths in 2017/18 were both 50,000 above the average of previous years, excluding these two "outliers" then the 2 years would be equally as bad. Though, we are used to flu and we are used to "living with" flu. Covid-19, on the other hand, required a much more dramatic and disruptive response.

Stay safe. Stay well. Stay alert!
In the long run, "excess deaths" one year makes no difference to the annual average. Ultimately, the number of deaths is 1 per person; any excess deaths one year are one death the less in subsequent years. Whether those deaths would have happened next year or in ten years all averages out over time anyway.

Statisitically, if coronavirus and its side effects and treatments cause say 100,000 "excess deaths" this year, then there will be 100,000 fewer deaths in future. Probably a good half of them would have been next year in view of the age and health profile of the victims; one or two of them - literally only one or two - could have been ninety or a hundred years down the line.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by martin_p » Sat May 23, 2020 12:30 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:40 pm
Exactly my situation. I’ve got the popcorn out for the Cummings haters popping up, I see David Lidington is on Newsnight already.

The question on my mind is what you do with a 4 year old if both parents feel they will imminently become seriously ill (Cummings ended up being in bed for a week)? I can see many pundits saying what they cannot do within the rules, but none yet saying what he should have done in that situation. He can hardly put the nipper into care with strangers, nor can he isolate him in the flat, and friends may not take a child in who may become symptomatic. No easy options, and very selfless of the grandparents to offer help.

Saying that though, Cummings is hated by the left and right in equal measure, traditional Tories detest him. On that basis he is facing a tough battle.
He should have had someone pick his kids up rather than travel half the length of the country with Covid. What if he’d had a breakdown? Plus he shouldn’t have been staying with over 70s (which I assume his parents are). He must have some friends closer to home who could have picked them up or looked after them surely?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Steve-Harpers-perm » Sat May 23, 2020 12:52 am

Imagine no matter what political persuasion you are defending an individual like Dominic Cummings.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by TheFamilyCat » Sat May 23, 2020 12:55 am

dsr wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 12:07 am
In the long run, "excess deaths" one year makes no difference to the annual average. Ultimately, the number of deaths is 1 per person; any excess deaths one year are one death the less in subsequent years. Whether those deaths would have happened next year or in ten years all averages out over time anyway.

Statisitically, if coronavirus and its side effects and treatments cause say 100,000 "excess deaths" this year, then there will be 100,000 fewer deaths in future. Probably a good half of them would have been next year in view of the age and health profile of the victims; one or two of them - literally only one or two - could have been ninety or a hundred years down the line.
**** me. The number of corona deaths doesn't matter because they'd all have died anyway.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by aggi » Sat May 23, 2020 1:04 am

dsr wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 12:07 am
In the long run, "excess deaths" one year makes no difference to the annual average. Ultimately, the number of deaths is 1 per person; any excess deaths one year are one death the less in subsequent years. Whether those deaths would have happened next year or in ten years all averages out over time anyway.

Statisitically, if coronavirus and its side effects and treatments cause say 100,000 "excess deaths" this year, then there will be 100,000 fewer deaths in future. Probably a good half of them would have been next year in view of the age and health profile of the victims; one or two of them - literally only one or two - could have been ninety or a hundred years down the line.
The main study I've seen on this suggested that the average number of years of life lost was twelve. If the above is anywhere near true then the the other half lost a lot of years of life.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sat May 23, 2020 1:06 am

TheFamilyCat wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 12:55 am
**** me. The number of corona deaths doesn't matter because they'd all have died anyway.
If you think that deaths don't matter because they would have died later anyway, then you're a pretty sick individual.

If, on the other hand, you're inventing in your mind what you think I might have meant, then you're just being a little bit silly. There is no logical way to go from a factually accurate statement that excess deaths would have happened sometime in the next 100 years so the total is the same in the long run, to saying that deaths don't matter. That interpretation was entirely a product of your own mind; nothing in what I wrote means that.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sat May 23, 2020 1:33 am

aggi wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:04 am
The main study I've seen on this suggested that the average number of years of life lost was twelve. If the above is anywhere near true then the the other half lost a lot of years of life.
It won't be 12. The average age of corona victims at death (based on mid-point of 5 year age gaps) is 78.35 for men, 81.82 for women, and the average life expectancy of corona victims (again based on mid-point of 6 year age gaps, and using social security actuarial tables) is 10.28 years for men, 9.85 years for women.

So if coronavirus strikes indiscriminately at the healthy and the unhealthy, we would be looking at an average of about 10 years lost per death. But it doesn't - 90% of coronavirus deaths are of people who are already ill. A third of them are in old folks' homes and nursing homes, where life expectancy is as low as 2 years from the day you go in. The remaining life expectancy of the people who are dying, on average, would have been significantly less than 10.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Sat May 23, 2020 6:33 am

Steve-Harpers-perm wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 12:52 am
Imagine no matter what political persuasion you are defending an individual like Dominic Cummings.
Similar to defending Alistair Campbell

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Sat May 23, 2020 8:25 am

dsr wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 12:07 am
In the long run, "excess deaths" one year makes no difference to the annual average. Ultimately, the number of deaths is 1 per person; any excess deaths one year are one death the less in subsequent years. Whether those deaths would have happened next year or in ten years all averages out over time anyway.

Statisitically, if coronavirus and its side effects and treatments cause say 100,000 "excess deaths" this year, then there will be 100,000 fewer deaths in future. Probably a good half of them would have been next year in view of the age and health profile of the victims; one or two of them - literally only one or two - could have been ninety or a hundred years down the line.
Hi dsr, you are exactly right. Death is a certainty for all of us, "three score and ten" or "four score and ten" it's only the timing that is in question. :(

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Sat May 23, 2020 8:33 am

If you were that ill that you couldn’t look after your kid would you be able to drive 300 miles?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Grumps » Sat May 23, 2020 8:49 am

Bordeauxclaret wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:33 am
If you were that ill that you couldn’t look after your kid would you be able to drive 300 miles?
I don't know how I'll he was, I've only seen it reported that he had symptoms, I don't know if he ever tested positive

What have other parents done in a similar situation, young children have to be looked after and if both parents are isolating, who does that?

I think the truth needs to be told, match it against the guidelines at the time. If he's broken them, sack him, if not, let's move on.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Billy Balfour » Sat May 23, 2020 8:52 am

Funny how some people are trying to paint Cummings' blatant disregard for the rules, he helped set, as a Left v Right issue. I suppose that trying to deflect the issue serves their purpose, but not in the long run.

Most will see this as 'do as I say, not as I do' hypocrisy. It's also funny how some of those very same people were going apoplectic when Scotland's chief medical officer broke the same rules.

I agreed that Catherine Calderwood had to go. I agreed that Neil Ferguson had to go. The reason? You can't tell the public to do one thing while doing another. For me this has nothing to do with Left v Right. It's about accountability in public office. I also can't abide hypocrisy no matter where it comes from and I'd most certainty calls this out for what it is if the senior adviser was Labour, Lib Dem or SNP etc and I think most decent folk would do the same.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Sat May 23, 2020 9:00 am

Grumps wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:33 am
Similar to defending Alistair Campbell
I've mentioned this before, I played in a charity game at Stamford Bridge, 10 years ago. I played centre half with Alastair Campbell playing left back. Our team captain said I'd to cover Alastair - because he was a bit slow. So, yes, I've been known to be "defending Alistair Campbell." ;)
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Paul Waine » Sat May 23, 2020 9:12 am

Billy Balfour wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:52 am
Funny how some people are trying to paint Cummings' blatant disregard for the rules, he helped set, as a Left v Right issue. I suppose that trying to deflect the issue serves their purpose, but not in the long run.

Most will see this as 'do as I say, not as I do' hypocrisy. It's also funny how some of those very same people were going apoplectic when Scotland's chief medical officer broke the same rules.

I agreed that Catherine Calderwood had to go. I agreed that Neil Ferguson had to go. The reason? You can't tell the public to do one thing while doing another. For me this has nothing to do with Left v Right. It's about accountability in public office. I also can't abide hypocrisy no matter where it comes from and I'd most certainty calls this out for what it is if the senior adviser was Labour, Lib Dem or SNP etc and I think most decent folk would do the same.
Hi Billy, don't you think these are three different circumstances: Scottish CMO, making two trips to her second home - please don't go to second homes was the rule; Ferguson - please maintain social distance with other households was the rule. Cummings - self-isolate if have symptoms, no travel except for essentials and medical purposes. I don't think we know Cummings 4 year old son, we don't need to do. If the young lad's mother and father are both suffering from covid-19 symptoms are we saying that it wasn't essential to get him to a place where he can be looked after - whether this is his grandparents, or as we are now hearing, his aunt and uncle? Are we saying he should have made the trip to Durham on his own? Maybe his Dad was well enough to make the drive, but also aware that he may not be a day or two later.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Billy Balfour » Sat May 23, 2020 9:21 am

He broke the rules. He travelled, while symptomatic, to another region. A four or five hour drive with a child? Glad I wasn't in the services when they went to the toilet.

Also, if there's nothing wrong with what he's done - then why have Number 10 spent weeks trying to cover this up? It ******* stinks. This will be my final word on this issue because nobody is going to change my mind.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by aggi » Sat May 23, 2020 9:30 am

dsr wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:33 am
It won't be 12. The average age of corona victims at death (based on mid-point of 5 year age gaps) is 78.35 for men, 81.82 for women, and the average life expectancy of corona victims (again based on mid-point of 6 year age gaps, and using social security actuarial tables) is 10.28 years for men, 9.85 years for women.

So if coronavirus strikes indiscriminately at the healthy and the unhealthy, we would be looking at an average of about 10 years lost per death. But it doesn't - 90% of coronavirus deaths are of people who are already ill. A third of them are in old folks' homes and nursing homes, where life expectancy is as low as 2 years from the day you go in. The remaining life expectancy of the people who are dying, on average, would have been significantly less than 10.
I don't think either of us can say for certain but the figure of 12 was based on this study. It may be that Italy had a hugely different profile of deaths to us but I've not seen anything to suggest that.

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

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