Awayfromburnley wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:12 pm
I can only repeat what I ve said before. But now with a bit of background
1 colleague has been seriously ill with it. 38yrs old.
1 colleagues parent with hours left to live, he has it.
1 distant colleague dead from it.
That said I know about a dozen who have had it but have recovered. Some no issues, some ongoing.
There are some home truths that need to be carefully spoken, that in effect will change our world, society and our way of life. It really could destroy countries in a similar way to a civil war does. It isn't pretty at all, you cannot sugar coat it.
This disease is dangerous. We don't have a vaccine. The blasé attitude of many is amplifying the issue.
We need to accept for 2 or 3 years pubs (for example) are not an option. Yes devastating for many especially those that work in them.
Until a president or PM goes onto TV and openly says our wya of life will change, instead of the semi denial, then there will be ambiguity.
We all need to shoulder some responsibility and not mix and be care free as some are.
Yes, unfortunately the economy will tank, but economies recover. Dead people don't.
We are heading for more lockdown and yes they do work as it restricts many of the people that would otherwise spread it with their blasé attitude.
Life is having to change, it is rubbish but we have to accept it. Get used to being stuck with who you live with, or get someone to live with you.
We are in for a seriously bumpy ride.
Sorry if that is grim. It's reality. It's really that bad. I am sure I will get grief for this, but it is a fact.
Though you can help reduce the impact :
1 just wear a bloody mask it reduces your snoz sharing
2 just keep a 2m gap, only weirdos can't do that
3 stop ignoring guidance, you aren't invincible
4 if you do not believe it is real and are one of those deniers, take it from me, personally and professionally, it is absolutely real and my clinical colleagues are near to breaking.
Chin up, get on with what you can. Head down and do the time. We can and will beat this but we all have to play our part.
How bad is it going to be, though? For example, the worst case scenario that was posited at the start of the pandemic was that we would have 500,000 deaths in the UK from coronavirus. And if you assume a 1% death rate among over 16's, you would get close to that if
everyone caught it.
Whereas presumably the hope with lockdown is that we can keep the deaths to 50,000 a year. 150,000 deaths over 3 years.
So given that the average number of deaths under normal conditions is 600,000 p.a., we are talking about absolute worst case scenario of 2.3m deaths from all causes in the next 3 years versus absolute best case scenario (if we hold coronavirus deaths down to 100,000) of 1.9m deaths.
But then again we know that the average age of coronavirus deaths is 82, and at that age average life expectancy is only 10 years or so; so within 3 years we would expect one sixth of those people to die anyway (from actuarial tables). So at the end of three years 70k of the 400k excess deaths would have happened anyway. We are now down 330,000. That is the baseline coronavirus excess deaths figure over 3 years.
But then we have to calculate the excess deaths that lockdown causes. It won't be insignificant. How many cancer operations have already been delayed, how many diagnoses have been missed? And crucially, when the economy as you say is tanked, it will gradually recover. But it's already in a mess, we were borrowing far too much before coronavirus started, we have borrowed shedloads more, the government's income from taxes will plummet, the government's expenditure from social security will rocket. There will have to be cutbacks. Specifically, the NHS will have less money. Perhaps 10% less? Because no doubt its budget will get extra protection ahead of other departments which will lose more.
So if we assume that what would have happened is absolute worst case scenario and what will happen with 3 years' lockdown is absolute best case scenario, we have 330,000 more people alive at the end of three years. Less, of course, the additional victims of cancer, stroke, dementia, and mental problems. And simple despair. And, of course, the number of people who are no longer able to cope because dementia has them in their grip will be higher.
But we won't have the money to spend on expensive treatments any more. It's fantasy to think that the NHS budget won't be cut. All these children with nothing to eat - there will be millions more, and that's going to cost lives. Poor countries have much lower life expectancy than rich countries. We have to look at both sides of the tale and make properly informed judgements.
Incidentally even the worst case coronavirus outcome is nowhere near the effect of a civil war. That's hyerbole.