Russia Invades

[Hipper]

The Economist looking into where are all the Russian planes?

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/15012 ... 47522?s=21

The picture shown looks like a museum!

[Spijed]

Biden administration: delivering Polish aircraft to Ukraine isn’t “tenable.”

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1 ... 9881064453

[Lancasterclaret]

How do you know this?

I would think we (the West) have been involved with misleading information when it suits us.

Then we get a snippet of information - MIGs going to Germany from Poland - and all sorts of theories are offered including that the US and Poland don't know what each other is doing.

I'm sure we have, but NATO have not hidden anything I've mentioned, and the only thing that there are questions over are these MIG-29s

NATO are supplying defensive weapons to Ukraine

NATO are supply SIGNIT to Ukrainian forces (the extent of which no one is sure about, but I guarantee one of the reasons that the Ukrainians are doing so well is that they know what the Russians are doing before the Russians do, and that can only come from NATO SIGNIT)

I'm whinging it a bit here with the jets, but my only thought at the moment is that there is as they are not purely defensive weapons, then its potentially an issue

[Hipper]

The future of the internet and this war:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60661987

As a result of this war and the sanctions, Russia in particular, if it survives in its current form, will see the weakness of associating too deeply with 'The West', both financially and with technology. Perhaps China will think the same - they already do to a degree.

Another disturbing thing for me is the arbitrariness of organisations like 'Anonymous'. Who are they answerable to? Sure at the moment they appear to be on our side - i.e. against Russia - but why should that continue? What's to stop them attempting to destroy the NHS for example? Or the banking system?

Whatever, this war is going to lead to a lot of rethinking of the existing systems. I doubt anything fairer will come out of it.

[Mala591]

I think there has to be a balance here

Currently, Ukraine is absolutely screwed unless it becomes part of NATO, and currently, NATO are not interested in having Ukraine as a member, and there are lots and lots of arguments to suggest that they will never be part of NATO

But there has to be balance that guarantees Ukrainian security, and if that relies on a treaty that Russia signs, their complete disregard for that kind of thing completely invalidates that as an option

I'm struggling to see a peaceful solution that will guarantee the sovereignty of Ukraine to say, join the EU or maintain democratic ideals

Essentially, Ukraine is fighting for its very existence and I'm pretty sure that 42 million Ukrainians know that as well

In a 2018 survey of Ukrainian citizens a majority supported joining NATO

[Lancasterclaret]

In a 2018 survey of Ukrainian citizens a majority supported joining NATO

No doubt, and that is an essential pre-requisite for NATO membership

Look, I think Ukraine in NATO and the pre-war conflict lines (ie the Crimea and parts of the Eastern Donbass) being acknowledged as part of Russia might be the only way out of this, but I don't think either side is remotely ready to accept anything like that sort of compromise

And I'm not sure NATO want to be involved in a country that is not going to accept having to give up its land because of an completely unjustified invasion

[Mala591]

Interesting article about NATO (especially the U.S.) being reluctant to admit Ukraine

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nyti ... e.amp.html

[Hipper]

Talks of a peace agreement surely have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

It's easy to understand Zelensky's dilemma - prevent further lives being lost for no real purpose. Hopefully he and his team will know the true military situation (assuming he is still being fully informed by NATO) and the energy/food position of particularly Kviv but the other besieged towns too.

I recall the position of IRA's Michael Collins in 1921 when he reached an agreement with the British government which lead to the partition of Ireland. He was assassinated apparently by his own people as a result.

What a position to be in.

[Paul Waine]

Russian bonds will soon be junk and not paid first time since 1917. It's economy is trashed in a matter of days, what will it be like in a month.
BBC News - War in Ukraine: Fitch Ratings warns Russian bond default 'imminent'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60672085

The "technical" definition of "junk" is any bond rated less than investment grade. All the 3 major rating agencies, S&P, Moody's and Fitch moved Russia below investment grade when Russia invaded Ukraine. Yesterday, as reported by BBC, Fitch lowered the sovereign debt rating to one step above default.

The BBC report is incorrect when it says that this would be Russia's first default since the Bolshevik revolution in 1917. Russia defaulted on sovereign debt in August 1998.

[Lancasterclaret]

Talks of a peace agreement surely have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

It's easy to understand Zelensky's dilemma - prevent further lives being lost for no real purpose. Hopefully he and his team will know the true military situation (assuming he is still being fully informed by NATO) and the energy/food position of particularly Kviv but the other besieged towns too.

I recall the position of IRA's Michael Collins in 1921 when he reached an agreement with the British government which lead to the partition of Ireland. He was assassinated apparently by his own people as a result.

What a position to be in.

There is enough out there to suggest that the longer Ukraine hold out, the worst it is for Russia

Ukrainian troops plus reservists plus modern western equipment (but that does take time to organise) once deployed would stop Russia I suspect

Russia has already lost between 5%-10% (a lot of it modern) of its military equipment in this, and that will take billions and years to replace, and the longer it goes on, the worse that will get

Throw sanctions into that equation and you are looking at total economic collapse in a very short period of time

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 2442896388

Great thread on the Russian economy

[AlargeClaret]

It’s a pity the USA are almost entirely unaffected by this conflict due to their own huge oil & gas production . I do wish the west would cut through the embarrassing propaganda bullshine though regarding the actual military advances and the possible true state of the UKR armed forces . All this chest thumping about “ foreign legions “ and “ fighting to the last man “ is good and well along with the worthy ( though ludicrous) offer of Polands old MIG’s . Though all
I see is a slowly encircled crumbled infrastructure that would find it almost impossible to adequately re-supply it’s forces if Vlad takes the gloves off , allied to a terrified Europe having its gas cut off . I hope China have the balls to cool this .

[Lowbankclaret]

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 2442896388

Great thread on the Russian economy

Never went to Russia, but I did go to China. The large press shop in a state owned company had some massive Italian multifunction presses.
The other company was 60% private owned and made turbine blades. The 5 axis machines were a mix of Hermle machines and Chinese copies of those machines.

The CMM machines were all Leica machines.

So I would guess Russia is similar.

These specialist machines need support from the western engineers, when they break you need experts to fix them because they are so complex.

[LoveCurryPies]

If nuclear rockets were suddenly launched at the UK, and government announcements made on radio and TV....what would you do?

Anyone got somewhere to hide? Do you just phone your loved ones? Do you go outside and watch them descend?

I honestly don’t have a clue what I would do. Can’t imagine hiding under a wooden table (as they taught school children in the 1960’s) would be of any use.

Serious question, has anyone got a plan?

[elwaclaret]

Russian propaganda TV Chanel RT crying fowl after their ‘telegrams’ were blocked without warning. RT had been increasing its output dramatically over the last couple of days leading to speculation Russia was building up for a fresh wave of attacks. As Russia’s largest disseminator of bullshit should the RT blackout continue it would be bad news for Putin’s message control. Could it be the West scrambling the signals? Quite possibly, and should it return it is thought a time delay may be added so the West can sift out disinformation.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 19364?s=21

[elwaclaret]

David Beckham has matched the £1m donation to Ukrainian Refugees of the Premier League.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 56776?s=21

[Lowbankclaret]

If nuclear rockets were suddenly launched at the UK, and government announcements made on radio and TV....what would you do?

Anyone got somewhere to hide? Do you just phone your loved ones? Do you go outside and watch them descend?

I honestly don’t have a clue what I would do. Can’t imagine hiding under a wooden table (as they taught school children in the 1960’s) would be of any use.

Serious question, has anyone got a plan?

Not really, not sure I would want to be around in a post full scale nuclear war. Not that I could say what it would be like.

[bfcmatt]

David Beckham has matched the £1m donation to Ukrainian Refugees of the Premier League.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 56776?s=21

I don't know if it is lost in translation, but some of the replies to the tweet about Beckham are quite poor in my opinion. The amount he has donated is massive.

[elwaclaret]

If nuclear rockets were suddenly launched at the UK, and government announcements made on radio and TV....what would you do?

Anyone got somewhere to hide? Do you just phone your loved ones? Do you go outside and watch them descend?

I honestly don’t have a clue what I would do. Can’t imagine hiding under a wooden table (as they taught school children in the 1960’s) would be of any use.

Serious question, has anyone got a plan?

They used to tell us to get under the dining-table for protection in case of Nuclear strike in the early 80’s too. I suggest clearing out under the stairs or as close as you can get to the hearth (the houses two strongest points. Most of our Nuclear bunkers (and they were only meant for civil servants) were mothballed in the nineties.

Edit - or make for a library - Towneley Hall/ Library / Museum Vaults / Subways (not the sandwich shops) / cellars

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA reporting Middle Eastern states are now even refusing calls from President Bidon as he repeatedly requests them to up oil production.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 20352?s=21

[GodIsADeeJay81]

If nuclear rockets were suddenly launched at the UK, and government announcements made on radio and TV....what would you do?

Anyone got somewhere to hide? Do you just phone your loved ones? Do you go outside and watch them descend?

I honestly don’t have a clue what I would do. Can’t imagine hiding under a wooden table (as they taught school children in the 1960’s) would be of any use.

Serious question, has anyone got a plan?

No plan here, aside from phoning my two teenage boys to tell them to take care etc and I'd go be with my 6yr old daughter.
The boys live 15mins driver away, I doubt I'd have time to get to them.

I'm south of Oxford and 20 miles north of AWE, with various military bases around me........

[duncandisorderly]

I'd hide in the fridge like Indiana Jones

[Lowbankclaret]

Russian propaganda TV Chanel RT crying fowl after their ‘telegrams’ were blocked without warning. RT had been increasing its output dramatically over the last couple of days leading to speculation Russia was building up for a fresh wave of attacks. As Russia’s largest disseminator of bullshit should the RT blackout continue it would be bad news for Putin’s message control. Could it be the West scrambling the signals? Quite possibly, and should it return it is thought a time delay may be added so the West can sift out disinformation.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 19364?s=21

Anonymous said they had hacked into Russian TV a couple of days ago, it might be them doing this.

[Lancasterclaret]

Ben Wallace talking in the commons about "exploring the possibility of supplying air defence missiles to Ukraine"

If they can't get aircraft, then they need this, and they need this now

[Lowbankclaret]

Just listening to the Commons.

We are now going to supply starstreak missiles to Ukraine.

Hand held surface to air missile that reaches Mach 4.

[dermotdermot]

If nuclear rockets were suddenly launched at the UK, and government announcements made on radio and TV....what would you do?

Anyone got somewhere to hide? Do you just phone your loved ones? Do you go outside and watch them descend?

I honestly don’t have a clue what I would do. Can’t imagine hiding under a wooden table (as they taught school children in the 1960’s) would be of any use.


Serious question, has anyone got a plan?

Hopefully it would only come to that if the West was stupid enough to give in to Zelensky and implement a no fly zone. I don’t think that they will but am getting increasingly agitated by his demands. The day before he made this so called Churhillian speech he was referring to NATO as being weak for not capitulating to his requests.

[LoveCurryPies]

Not really, not sure I would want to be around in a post full scale nuclear war. Not that I could say what it would be like.

No, I wouldn’t like to live in a bleak Mad Max type wasteland with strange characters crawling around.

That’s why I don’t live in Blackburn.

[elwaclaret]

OTHER NEWS: Being as all the historians are likely on here, I thought this would be the best place for this exciting news …
Shackleton’s ‘Endurance’ has been found after a 106 years…

https://twitter.com/adroitlyabsurd/stat ... 35362?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Hopefully it would only come to that if the West was stupid enough to give in to Zelensky and implement a no fly zone. I don’t think that they will but am getting increasingly agitated by his demands. The day before he made this so called Churhillian speech he was referring to NATO as being weak for not capitulating to his requests.

Row that one back a bit I think

There isn't going to be a "No fly" zone, because that only works when the other side is not capable of resisting it, and that is clearly not the case here

Any escalation will be 100% at the door of Putin, and my worry is that he pushes the fact that we won't intervene as far as he thinks we can, and he ends up crossing NATO red lines

[elwaclaret]

Row that one back a bit I think

There isn't going to be a "No fly" zone, because that only works when the other side is not capable of resisting it, and that is clearly not the case here

Any escalation will be 100% at the door of Putin, and my worry is that he pushes the fact that we won't intervene as far as he thinks we can, and he ends up crossing NATO red lines

I think it unimaginable that President Zelenskiy was not involved in some ‘off air’ talks with parliament (besides the coverage), sure he is now fully updated on what can be done and cannot, and the reasons for those decisions.

[JarrowClaret]

Just listening to the Commons.

We are now going to supply starstreak missiles to Ukraine.

Hand held surface to air missile that reaches Mach 4.

Not quite Lowbank just over mach 3, significant threat to Russian helo more than fast air but still effective against that as well.

I would assume we will provide the shoulder launch or LML Version and not the tracked one.

As the firer guides the missile on it should negate Russian aircraft counter measures as well.

It would still class as a defensive weapon but a huge a decision if they do it.

[elwaclaret]

Have I got News for You are naming and shaming Iron Brew and Um Bongo for not following Coca-cola and Pepsi.

https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status ... 12736?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Not quite Lowbank just over mach 3, significant threat to Russian helo more than fast air but still effective against that as well.

I would assume we will provide the shoulder launch or LML Version and not the tracked one.

As the firer guides the missile on it should negate Russian aircraft counter measures as well.

It would still class as a defensive weapon but a huge a decision if they do it.

What they really need is some long range SAMs and they certainly need some sort of anti-ship missile

Be interested to see just how much captured/abandoned Russian equipment they can get into service for themselves

[gandhisflipflop]

Just a heads up. Try and get the fuel in while you can because prices are going to be in the high 180s minimum by next week. We have already seen over 2 pound a litre on some motorway sites today.

[elwaclaret]

Britain has now sent over 3,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, and rising reports ELINT

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/statu ... 00833?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Just a heads up. Try and get the fuel in while you can because prices are going to be in the high 180s minimum by next week. We have already seen over 2 pound a litre on some motorway sites today.

Got £1.58 at Asda on Monday

We are going to look at those prices with sighs in the coming weeks I think

[bfcjg]

If nuclear rockets were suddenly launched at the UK, and government announcements made on radio and TV....what would you do?

Anyone got somewhere to hide? Do you just phone your loved ones? Do you go outside and watch them descend?

I honestly don’t have a clue what I would do. Can’t imagine hiding under a wooden table (as they taught school children in the 1960’s) would be of any use.

Serious question, has anyone got a plan?

TBH with some of the reactions I get when I cook, the grandchildren already hide under the table when they see me approaching with their tea.
Seriously, no plan not sure it will ever happen, I'd try to get to the family and just pray.

[elwaclaret]

Reuters report that Taiwan feels relatively safe despite the West’s attention being diverted to Ukraine, as it is China’s ‘party season’ and Beijing is busy with internal meetings, for now.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 85674?s=21

[elwaclaret]

OTHER NEWS: More on Shackleton discovery

https://twitter.com/erelija/status/1501 ... 59873?s=21

[dibraidio]

CNN reporting that Russians have cut the power supply to Chernobyl and the spent nuclear fuel is no longer cooled. A meltdown will occur in 48 hours if nothing is done. Apparently the source was from the Ukraine officials who are very worried.

[elwaclaret]

Got £1.58 at Asda on Monday

We are going to look at those prices with sighs in the coming weeks I think

Think we better get used to £2+ per litre, puts into perspective America’s unrest at having to pay over $5 per GALLON.

[Lancasterclaret]

Reuters report that Taiwan feels relatively safe despite the West’s attention being diverted to Ukraine, as it is China’s ‘party season’ and Beijing is busy with internal meetings, for now.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 85674?s=21

They also haven't got the amphibious capacity to invade Taiwan, and won't for at least a few more years

Plus they have seen how hard it is to knock out a fully prepared and well armed smaller country

I wonder if they are looking at the performance of the Russian army as well, and wondering if they have similar issues?

[Willieonthewing]

Not sure who is moderating this thread, but why are posts, that don't break any forum rules being deleted?

[JarrowClaret]

What they really need is some long range SAMs and they certainly need some sort of anti-ship missile

Be interested to see just how much captured/abandoned Russian equipment they can get into service for themselves

I did my course on it in 1996 was never tested against ships that I’m aware I would assume they would provide the older missile so would have a range of around 6-7 km. certainly not long range but long enough whether they will be detecting/ engaging targets at them ranges would wholly depend on what we actually provide along with the missiles or if they could integrate 1 of there radars, if indeed we do provide them.

[elwaclaret]

Now (nearly typed USSR) Russia threatening the U.S. over latest energy sanctions.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 31328?s=21

[duncandisorderly]

Not sure who is moderating this thread, but why are posts, that don't break any forum rules being deleted?

Because you're being deliberately antagonistic. Stop it.

[elwaclaret]

Because you're being deliberately antagonistic. Stop it.

I know who is moderating this - and can confirm you are perfectly correct. Just t confirm I was involved with a long discussion with Tony after the thread was pulled and we got his agreement to re-open the thread if it was kept on a tight leash.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1501551964551024646

Looking very clear that there is an "operational pause" by the Russians

Sorting out their supplies, bringing up more firepower, relieving shattered units (I'm guessing that the 200th Motor Rifle is no longer on the front line), and transferring the more motivated troops to the areas where they plan to attack

I'm not sure they have the supplies or the equipment to attack on all those vectors btw, and I'm also 100% sure that the Ukrainians will know (thanks to NATO SIGNIT) where they are coming

I don't know anything about the Ukrainian transport network, but I'd say they have the advantage of interior lines of communication, which will certainly help

[Billy Balfour]

The Govt has to scrap VAT on fuel until we are out of this crises. We currently pay 57.95p in tax for every litre, and then there's VAT charged at a rate of 20%.

[elwaclaret]

The Govt has to scrap VAT on fuel until we are out of this crises. We currently pay 57.95p in tax for every litre, and then there's VAT charged at a rate of 20%.

Nice idea, but not very likely.