The Dyche Paradox

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thatdberight
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The Dyche Paradox

Postby thatdberight » Wed May 01, 2019 10:57 pm

Article by Gabe Marcotti in The Times. I'll précis. It probably won't be popular.

Burnley... stay up for the third consecutive season is a remarkable achievement. Wage bills... third lowest. Net transfer spend 14th, 19th and 5th in the past three seasons... what Dyche has achieved is special... playing a certain style of football at Burnley but it is not one that will land him a job at a top club in the Premier League

Burnley’s approach... varies to some degree based on the opposition... there’s a certain ethos to this side which is based on defending, commitment and directness.

: fewest shots
: second fewest shots on target
: Only Cardiff have passed the ball less
: nobody has hit more long balls
: defensive blocks lead the league, just as they have in each of the past three seasons with nearly a third as many blocks as second.

The big six all play proactive, pass-oriented, attacking football, often with a high defensive line - which most of the Premier League’s “middle class” try to replicate. Not Burnley.

A better-resourced club with ambition will naturally be drawn to a manager who tries to play like the top sides. And Dyche hasn’t show this at all in three seasons of Premier League football.

In 2015-16 season, when Burnley won the Championship, they were undoubtedly near the top in terms of wage bill.

In 2015-16;
20th in shots
19th in shots on target
15th in passes
first in long passes
second in blocks.

What this suggests is that Dyche is Dyche. He plays this way because he believes in it.

He doesn’t even attempt to introduce the sort of style that might turn the head of a bigger club. If he tries to play the sort of football big clubs value, he risks getting relegated and possibly sacked and then the big clubs won’t be interested. So he plays the football that he believes gives him the best chance of fulfilling his mission and he reaches his goal. Except in so doing, he makes the bigger, more ambitious clubs steer clear of him because it’s not the football they want.

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morpheus2
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby morpheus2 » Wed May 01, 2019 11:04 pm

Think it's pretty much spot on actually.
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Bin Ont Turf
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Bin Ont Turf » Wed May 01, 2019 11:05 pm

thatdberight wrote:In 2015-16;
20th in shots
19th in shots on target
15th in passes
first in long passes
second in blocks.

What this suggests is that Dyche is Dyche. He plays this way because he believes in it.



Blah blah blah

Champions
Joint top goals scored

Yawn
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martin_p
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby martin_p » Wed May 01, 2019 11:14 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:Blah blah blah

Champions
Joint top goals scored

Yawn


And also one of the highest scoring sides in the second half of this season.
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Wile E Coyote
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Wile E Coyote » Wed May 01, 2019 11:21 pm

all these silly american football style stats are spoiling football, who cares how many blocks or assists there were 3 years ago ?
we are a miniscule club from a tiny town and yet we are still in there with the Arab backed clubs and their grubby billionaires and doing a great job despite eveything.
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby South West Claret. » Wed May 01, 2019 11:24 pm

thatdberight wrote:Article by Gabe Marcotti in The Times. I'll précis. It probably won't be popular.

Burnley... stay up for the third consecutive season is a remarkable achievement. Wage bills... third lowest. Net transfer spend 14th, 19th and 5th in the past three seasons... what Dyche has achieved is special... playing a certain style of football at Burnley but it is not one that will land him a job at a top club in the Premier League

Burnley’s approach... varies to some degree based on the opposition... there’s a certain ethos to this side which is based on defending, commitment and directness.

: fewest shots
: second fewest shots on target
: Only Cardiff have passed the ball less
: nobody has hit more long balls
: defensive blocks lead the league, just as they have in each of the past three seasons with nearly a third as many blocks as second.

The big six all play proactive, pass-oriented, attacking football, often with a high defensive line - which most of the Premier League’s “middle class” try to replicate. Not Burnley.

A better-resourced club with ambition will naturally be drawn to a manager who tries to play like the top sides. And Dyche hasn’t show this at all in three seasons of Premier League football.

In 2015-16 season, when Burnley won the Championship, they were undoubtedly near the top in terms of wage bill.

In 2015-16;
20th in shots
19th in shots on target
15th in passes
first in long passes
second in blocks.

What this suggests is that Dyche is Dyche. He plays this way because he believes in it.

He doesn’t even attempt to introduce the sort of style that might turn the head of a bigger club. If he tries to play the sort of football big clubs value, he risks getting relegated and possibly sacked and then the big clubs won’t be interested. So he plays the football that he believes gives him the best chance of fulfilling his mission and he reaches his goal. Except in so doing, he makes the bigger, more ambitious clubs steer clear of him because it’s not the football they want.


Now tell us something we don't know. :roll:

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Colburn_Claret » Wed May 01, 2019 11:30 pm

We've scored more goals than 7 other clubs, only 1 less than Wolves, and they are apparently fantastic footballers.
Some stats just need ignoring.
How many times did Citeh suck us in on Sunday, just so that they could launch a long ball over the top. When they do it they are brilliant.
I dont believe Sean gives a toss what other people think. He will continue to do what is necessary, with the tools hes got, to achieve the best result possible. If there are Chairmen out their who cant appreciate that, then hes probably better off here.

UTC
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tim_noone
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby tim_noone » Thu May 02, 2019 1:31 am

We are Burnley....we'll play how we want.
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby IanMcL » Thu May 02, 2019 2:21 am

If you are given a canvas to paint and only black and white paint, then you can paint a black and white picture. However, the best can paint a picture with startling variations of grey.

Mr Dyche often finds the blend of grey required to undermine the dazzling Impressionists and their rich palette.

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Spike
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Spike » Thu May 02, 2019 6:17 am

Outrun the opposition
Magnificent defending
a boss you can understand
Fans who are mates for life not tourists
Cheaper beer
Would we want to change would we feck
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Stockbrokerbelt » Thu May 02, 2019 6:37 am

Stats are like a bikini, they show you a lot but not all. Take the long ball Liverpool use it a lot for their teams front 2 or 3 players pace, Spurs used it against Ajax because they could not match their midfield, we use it to get it forward quickly because we don’t have the same pace, teams leave a lot of space on the flanks because they push their full backs high. They are all tactics that can be used & are all effective at times but seem to be used as a negative when talking about smaller clubs. The premier league is only worried about its brand & pushes all & everything about the top 6 for financial reasons & their best league in the world branding that is also preached by The pundits some of who could not manage a pub team. Bet Liverpool wished they could have used some of Burnley’s techniques last night!
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby ashtonlongsider » Thu May 02, 2019 6:53 am

The year Leicester won the PL, I think their stats showed they had the one of the least possession and accuracy in pass rates. Yet they won the league in a canter at the end. This stat malarky is a load of nonsense. Can't see many criticising Atletico Madrid and they play a very similar style. As Dyche has alluded to there is more than one way to win a football match. SD is a top, top manager, the envy of many in football and we are lucky to have him.
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COBBLE
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby COBBLE » Thu May 02, 2019 7:56 am

Not true. Dyche says he uses the weapons he has at his disposal. He tried to evolve last season but then Defour and an on form Brady were injured. He will try to evolve again if and when he gets the players he would like.
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby arise_sir_charge » Thu May 02, 2019 8:06 am

Why do some of the media have an obsession with the likes of Dyche getting a “top six” job?

Sean Dyche earns £3.5m per year plus bonuses at Burnley doing what he does and will likely earn that until HE decides otherwise!

I suspect that in the circumstances Dyche isn’t actually arsed either way!
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beddie
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby beddie » Thu May 02, 2019 8:08 am

Well done to the "reporter" for stating the bloody obvious. I'd love to know if they were in the same position what would they do. We all know that Sean would like to play a bit more "gung ho" but finances dictate.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby AlargeClaret » Thu May 02, 2019 8:11 am

COBBLE wrote:Not true. Dyche says he uses the weapons he has at his disposal. He tried to evolve last season but then Defour and an on form Brady were injured. He will try to evolve again if and when he gets the players he would like.


100% correct , with the likes of Lennon /gud/Brady on the flanks matched with defours creativity I’d expected to evolve again after the excellent pre Xmas we had last season. Give Dyche the tools to work with and match it to his pragmatism and he’s one of the best in the business
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Suratclaret
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Suratclaret » Thu May 02, 2019 8:48 am

Is Gabe Marcotti Garth Crooks in disguise?

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby claretspice » Thu May 02, 2019 8:55 am

Is the article/obervations of the OP actually criticising Dyche, or offering a theory as to why he might not be "fashionable" enough for a big club to take a punt on him?

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby SalisburyClaret » Thu May 02, 2019 9:20 am

In the time Dyche has been managing Burnley, what have the progressive managers and tactical geniuses that the Top 6 employ actually done to distinguish themselves as great managers. They have spent colossal amounts of money and failed to break out of their peer group. They’ve often copied styles of playing from elsewhere, bored their fans rigid in some instances and angered them in others.

Yet those clubs have every resource imaginable at their disposal, we don’t, we have Dyche and the longer the statistics show he’s not suitable for a Top 6 job the better
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Belgianclaret » Thu May 02, 2019 9:25 am

IanMcL wrote:If you are given a canvas to paint and only black and white paint, then you can paint a black and white picture. However, the best can paint a picture with startling variations of grey.

Mr Dyche often finds the blend of grey required to undermine the dazzling Impressionists and their rich palette.


That's actually not bad Ian, who did you steal that quote from? ;)

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby NottsClaret » Thu May 02, 2019 9:35 am

The often quoted stat about how few shots we have is interesting. Of course, it's goals that count and as has been said, we've scored plenty since Xmas. And absolutely loads in the championship.

Surely the fascinating thing the stattos should be pondering there is how Dyche gets a team to be so clinical.
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby CrosspoolClarets » Thu May 02, 2019 9:54 am

I would like to see how many of our goals come from a long ball. I know a lot come from set pieces. It seems to me that we score mainly when we press teams back and get our passing going. Just because we score a lot and have a lot of long balls doesn’t mean the two are linked.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby IWOODLOVETT » Thu May 02, 2019 10:01 am

Belgianclaret wrote:That's actually not bad Ian, who did you steal that quote from? ;)


Yes, a good quote Ian. Here’s another ......

“Lies, damn lies and statistics” is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics, to bolster weak arguments (Wikipedia)

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ClaretTony
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby ClaretTony » Thu May 02, 2019 10:07 am

Wile E Coyote wrote:all these silly american football style stats are spoiling football, who cares how many blocks or assists there were 3 years ago ?
we are a miniscule club from a tiny town and yet we are still in there with the Arab backed clubs and their grubby billionaires and doing a great job despite eveything.


Spot on for me is that
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claretspice
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby claretspice » Thu May 02, 2019 10:08 am

NottsClaret wrote:The often quoted stat about how few shots we have is interesting. Of course, it's goals that count and as has been said, we've scored plenty since Xmas. And absolutely loads in the championship.

Surely the fascinating thing the stattos should be pondering there is how Dyche gets a team to be so clinical.


Amongst us and our peers, I imagine there'll be a correlation between total number of shots, and the number of shots/goals scored from outside the box.

I think Hendrick's at Chelsea was our first from outside the box for a year. That's partly due to our limitations (we don't have too many players who have that in their locker regularly), but it's also down to Dyche's instructions to create a good chance rather than take on the half chance.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby TVC15 » Thu May 02, 2019 10:16 am

Yep it’s a real shame our team don’t play little triangles and hundreds of 2 yard passes across the back four whilst most of the crowds hearts are in the mouth as that would be great fun to watch i’m sure.

Or maybe we should play the Eddie Howe way where he spends £60m or £70m a year, ships loads of goals, has the odd amazing result against Chelsea or Liverpool, gets talked about as a future England manager, gets beat twice by Burnley, hardly wins a game after Christmas, spends a fortune on a striker and keeps him on the bench...then finishes below Burnley again ?

No-one likes us....we don’t care
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boatshed bill
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby boatshed bill » Thu May 02, 2019 10:43 am

Whilst those stats are almost definitely correct, and the article is interesting enough, it's all pretty irrelevant. We are what we are, and we play the Sean Dyche way. If the football was causing our fans to stay away it would be a matter of concern, it's not.
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby IanMcL » Thu May 02, 2019 11:15 am

Belgianclaret wrote:That's actually not bad Ian, who did you steal that quote from? ;)

Thank you! I created it from my own blank canvas, in the early hours, after falling asleep, watching Line of Duty! (Two goes at LofD to get to end, as tired!)
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby tim_noone » Thu May 02, 2019 11:17 am

Stockbrokerbelt wrote:Stats are like a bikini, they show you a lot but not all. Take the long ball Liverpool use it a lot for their teams front 2 or 3 players pace, Spurs used it against Ajax because they could not match their midfield, we use it to get it forward quickly because we don’t have the same pace, teams leave a lot of space on the flanks because they push their full backs high. They are all tactics that can be used & are all effective at times but seem to be used as a negative when talking about smaller clubs. The premier league is only worried about its brand & pushes all & everything about the top 6 for financial reasons & their best league in the world branding that is also preached by The pundits some of who could not manage a pub team. Bet Liverpool wished they could have used some of Burnley’s techniques last night!

Read the Article on Burnley after ..watching Liverpool last night and thought exactly the same as to what you've written. I don't know how much salah cost.... But that miss was a shocker as were others earlier Considering what was at stake last night.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Rowls » Thu May 02, 2019 11:17 am

I think a great deal of snobbery leads people to see what they want to see.

Part of Dyche's "problem" in this respect is his voice. He is labelled "gruff" and things stem from there.

Sure, we won the league in 2015/16 playing some brutal football but where are the stats from 2013/14 when we played a different style of football (because we had different players)?

Where is the analysis of the multi-pass goals (like the one against Wigan which clinched promotion) or the possession stats from that season? How many shots on goal did we have?

The stats from that season don't feature and I suspect it may be because they don't fit with the argument.

If Dyche were at a club with more resources I think he'd be able to play a different style of football. If the big clubs think otherwise it's their loss and I'm happy to propagate what I think is a myth.
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby ClaretTony » Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am

claretspice wrote:I think Hendrick's at Chelsea was our first from outside the box for a year. That's partly due to our limitations (we don't have too many players who have that in their locker regularly), but it's also down to Dyche's instructions to create a good chance rather than take on the half chance.


I was amazed recently when I saw that we’d reached a run of 50 Premier League goals without one from outside the box, the last one having been Steven Defour’s free kick at Man U on Boxing Day 2017.

That run actually ended with Ashley Westwood’s corner at Liverpool.

Doesn’t matter how far out though - they all count one.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby mdd2 » Thu May 02, 2019 11:28 am

He is our second longest serving manager since 1932 and Haworth 1910-24 Pickles Jan 1925 to September 1932 and Harry Potts January 1958- February 1970 stayed in post longer. He has been amazingly successful given the slope of the playing field and that he is still with us probably shows how little those running football clubs know about the game.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Rowls » Thu May 02, 2019 11:30 am

SalisburyClaret wrote:the statistics show he’s not suitable for a Top 6 job the better


Agreed.

Although as a point of order (and I'll say it quietly) it's not the statistics which show Dyche is "unsuitable"; it's the interpretation of the statistics.

So many people confuse this in life but fortunately for us, Sean Dyche knows the difference and that's one of the reasons he's one of the very best in the country.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby TVC15 » Thu May 02, 2019 11:42 am

tim_noone wrote:Read the Article on Burnley after ..watching Liverpool last night and thought exactly the same as to what you've written. I don't know how much salah cost.... But that miss was a shocker as were others earlier Considering what was at stake last night.


He cost £30m and is probably now worth £150m less than 2 years later. Yes he missed a sitter but I think it’s not been too bad a signing !!!
Plus I thought despite the miss that he played very well last night - as I thought Liverpool did. Great game to watch.

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Chester Perry
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Chester Perry » Thu May 02, 2019 12:47 pm

Statistical Analysis in football is booming - and is used at every club in the PL including our own to improve performance and in game decision making - it's use is rapidly flowing down the pyramid even at non-league levels, The Cowley brothers have based most of their careers around it.

The stats you hear in the media are the highest level ones but the level in detail is incredible, they have also been used in the game for decades - that is how the infamous Charles Hughes "long ball" approach came about.

I have been thinking of starting a thread on the subject of development (heavily fed by statistical Analysis) in the same vein as the Magic Money Tree thread for some time - just not sure where to start or if I have the time
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Thu May 02, 2019 12:55 pm

Rowls wrote:
Part of Dyche's "problem" in this respect is his voice. He is labelled "gruff" and things stem from there.



Also his haircut, people expect his teams to be "bold".

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby dsr » Thu May 02, 2019 12:58 pm

Chester Perry wrote:Statistical Analysis in football is booming - and is used at every club in the PL including our own to improve performance and in game decision making - it's use is rapidly flowing down the pyramid even at non-league levels, The Cowley brothers have based most of their careers around it.

The stats you hear in the media are the highest level ones but the level in detail is incredible, they have also been used in the game for decades - that is how the infamous Charles Hughes "long ball" approach came about.

I have been thinking of starting a thread on the subject of development (heavily fed by statistical Analysis) in the same vein as the Magic Money Tree thread for some time - just not sure where to start or if I have the time

I have my doubts about how much good it is, even so. John Coleman pays his players the lowest wages in the league, feeds them on burger and chips, and has never used a sports stat in his life. Where would Stanley be if he did? ;)

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Darnhill Claret » Thu May 02, 2019 12:58 pm

Considering how many fans of clubs say they wouldn’t want to have Dyche in charge at their club, they seem to spend a lot of negative energy in repeatedly seeking to change their own managers. Only L’pool, City, Wolves, Spurs and B’mouth fans seem as happy as we are with our manager.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Vino blanco » Thu May 02, 2019 1:28 pm

I've been going on the Turf since 1951, and I believe Dyche is the best thing that has happened to Burnley in the last 50 years. Also, given the current state of footballing finances, I now believe he is the best manager we have ever had.
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Chester Perry » Thu May 02, 2019 1:33 pm

dsr wrote:I have my doubts about how much good it is, even so. John Coleman pays his players the lowest wages in the league, feeds them on burger and chips, and has never used a sports stat in his life. Where would Stanley be if he did? ;)


are you 100% sure about that?

I have no doubt that the first goal in Liverpool's game v Huddersfield referred to in this article (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=38908) was created as a result of stats based coaching. Or the fact that Norwich's success this season is built on a vast amount of Statisical analysis that has shaped the way they perform.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby TVC15 » Thu May 02, 2019 1:43 pm

dsr wrote:I have my doubts about how much good it is, even so. John Coleman pays his players the lowest wages in the league, feeds them on burger and chips, and has never used a sports stat in his life. Where would Stanley be if he did? ;)


Didn't they used to say something similar about Sam Allardyce until he began to remind everyone he was one of the first people to use statistics whilst in charge of Bolton.
We know Dyche uses them a great deal.
I doubt very much that John Coleman does not use them to some degree but like everything his resources are limited and cannot employ a whole department like we can.

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Chester Perry
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Chester Perry » Thu May 02, 2019 2:06 pm

I will add that most tactics and formations we see are not new they have been exercised somewhere in the history of the game before, the stats are employed in work to prepare players and inform their decision making and tactics for games

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dsr
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby dsr » Thu May 02, 2019 2:08 pm

Chester Perry wrote:are you 100% sure about that?

I have no doubt that the first goal in Liverpool's game v Huddersfield referred to in this article (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=38908) was created as a result of stats based coaching. Or the fact that Norwich's success this season is built on a vast amount of Statisical analysis that has shaped the way they perform.

I'm not saying it doesn't help, just that I doubt it makes much difference. I'm pretty sure that Huddersfield used a shedload of stats-based coachng as well - wasn't it one of Wagner's selling points?

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Chester Perry
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Chester Perry » Thu May 02, 2019 2:10 pm

dsr wrote:I'm not saying it doesn't help, just that I doubt it makes much difference. I'm pretty sure that Huddersfield used a shedload of stats-based coachng as well - wasn't it one of Wagner's selling points?


Huddersfield lost their technical director to Norwich and have still to replace him - no coincidence which club has been performing better since

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scouseclaret
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby scouseclaret » Thu May 02, 2019 3:45 pm

We played some fantastic football during the Championship winning campaign, and could go back further to our first promotion under SD. Barnes’s promotion clincher is one of the best “team” goals I’ve ever seen!

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No Ney Never
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby No Ney Never » Thu May 02, 2019 4:14 pm

Can't remember where, but I once read some stats showing that we are one of the best in the league on a goals scored per percentage of possession. What SD refers to as effective.

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rob63
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby rob63 » Fri May 03, 2019 12:42 am

ashtonlongsider wrote:The year Leicester won the PL, I think their stats showed they had the one of the least possession and accuracy in pass rates. Yet they won the league in a canter at the end. This stat malarky is a load of nonsense. Can't see many criticising Atletico Madrid and they play a very similar style. As Dyche has alluded to there is more than one way to win a football match. SD is a top, top manager, the envy of many in football and we are lucky to have him.

Not sure about the low passing accuracy at Leicester in the PL winning year but definitely true about possession stats. A lot of their goals were scored on the counter from defensive positions like corners where they positioned rapid players like Vardy & Mahrez 5 yards in from each touchline, 15 yards inside their own half waiting to pick up the defensive clearance knowing they were just up against midfielders or full-backs in an unfamiliar central defensive position & then running at them. It's a ploy that Dyche would probably have used too if we'd been blessed with quicker forwards. Instead our strikers defend the box, leaving us struggling with an out-ball. Maybe if he had different players at his disposal then our attacking focus would change.

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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Cajun » Fri May 03, 2019 2:01 am

Sean and Burnley are a great fit for each other and he has used the players at his disposal to great effect against some of the best coaches in the game while learning his trade. The big clubs are so far ahead in terms of finance and the players they can attract that we can’t try to outplay them, we have to find ways to derail them and get at their weak spots, which we do, leading to whining from the likes of Luiz. For me, Dyche’s terrific tenure with what now will be a fourth successive top flight season to come is a superb achievement and beyond anything I could have imagined when he took over.
These 2 users liked this post: Bosscat tim_noone

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wickdkewlclaret
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby wickdkewlclaret » Fri May 03, 2019 6:35 am

Real poorly written article, plus cherry picking stats to fit an opinion is lame AF.

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Hipper
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Re: The Dyche Paradox

Postby Hipper » Fri May 03, 2019 7:54 am

Stockbrokerbelt wrote:Stats are like a bikini, they show you a lot but not all.


https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=bikin ... 24&bih=599

Maybe not all but, unlike stats, they show enough.

The article seems to be a pretty good summary of Dyches achievements at Burnley. If you look at in a positive way, he has learned to adapt to Burnley's circumstances. He did try to be more expansive with some success - the first half of last season - so that says he can change if necessary.

If you look at sides that have tried other ways on a limited budget, like Bournemouth, they've done well in the circumstances but not much better. I would say that the most similar club with a completely different management system is Watford, and they have made good progress.


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