Magic Numbers 2018/2019

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Vince Fontaine
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Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vince Fontaine » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:26 pm

Can I please request that aggi makes one of those wonderful spreadsheets again?
Until then I’ll do them manually,so to speak.
UTC
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evensteadiereddie
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby evensteadiereddie » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:30 pm

Superb. The season starts here !

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aggi
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby aggi » Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:24 pm

I'll sort one out next weekend.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Paul Waine » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:36 pm

Where will we set our magic number? 40 points and Premier League safety? i.e. a minimum of 3 clubs can't finish above us; 55 and good chance of being in Europa again? i.e. 13 clubs will finish below us.

UTC

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby jdrobbo » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:37 pm

Set it at forty: four-zero. That is the only target to contemplate for now!

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Spijed
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Spijed » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:38 pm

37 is the new 40!

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fidelcastro
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby fidelcastro » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:54 pm

I think it'll take a record number of points to stay up this season.

:lol:

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby dougcollins » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:10 pm

Ah, the Magic Numbers. All is well.

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Longsider
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Longsider » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:59 pm

I suffer from insomnia. Could we have the annual explanation of the magic numbers algorithm..

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby box_of_frogs » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:14 am

When the magic number for a team hits zero, they can’t mathematically overtake us in the league. 3 teams do that, and we stay in the Premier League. Easy.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vince Fontaine » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:50 pm

W/E 11.08.18
Match day 1

Liverpool.............-1.........114
Chelsea ..............-1.........114
Bournemouth .......-1.........114
Palace ................-1.........114
Man City .............-1.........114
Watford ..............-1.........114
Man Utd ..............-1.........114
Tottenham............-1.........114
Everton ...............-3.........112
Wolves ................-3.........112
Burnley
Southampton .......-3.........112
Leicester.............-4.........111
Newcastle ...........-4.........111
Arsenal ...............-4........111
Brighton ..............-4........111
Cardiff.................-4........111
Fulham ................-4........111
Huddersfield .........-4........111
West Ham .............-4........111

UTC

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Caernarfon_Claret
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Caernarfon_Claret » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:53 pm

I can't see us getting 110 points.

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TheFamilyCat
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby TheFamilyCat » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:25 am

Caernarfon_Claret wrote:I can't see us getting 110 points.


More negativity on this board. Give it a rest, will ya?
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Goobs
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Goobs » Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:05 am

Caernarfon_Claret wrote:I can't see us getting 110 points.

Neither can I.

I Reckon we will get the 114 :D

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Caernarfon_Claret » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:29 pm

TheFamilyCat wrote:More negativity on this board. Give it a rest, will ya?


You do realize the positivity gene is recessive don't you?

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aggi
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby aggi » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:51 am

New season should be here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

For some reason the Sky Sports table I was using wouldn't work any more so I'm now using the Guardian's table. If it doesn't seem to be updating let me know and I'll find another to use.

As per last season I'm ignoring goal difference so the magic number is the absolute number of points required to overtake us (i.e. to be one point ahead of us).

I've hidden the stuff based on form for the moment, will show that when we've played some more games.
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Spijed » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:17 pm

The points of other teams must have gone down a fair bit!

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Clarets4me » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:15 pm


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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Spijed » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:04 pm

Gained six points against a few sides.
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Vince Fontaine
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vince Fontaine » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:19 am

W/E 05/10/2018
Match day 7

Man City.............106
Liverpool ...........106
Chelsea .............104
Tottenham .........102
Arsenal .............102
Watford .............100
Bournemouth ......100
Leicester ............99
Wolves ...............99
Man Utd .............97
Everton ..............96
Burnley
Palace ...............94
West Ham ...........94
Brighton .............92
Southampton .......92
Fulham...............92
Newcastle ...........89
Cardiff ...............89
Huddersfield ........89

Would be nice to see at least another 3 teams under 90 after Saturday
UTC

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Vince Fontaine
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vince Fontaine » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:28 am

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=20589#p509688

Last seasons thread
UTC

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vince Fontaine » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:29 am

Taken from last years thread
UTC


Bottom 6
Sorry 7
All under 90
After 7 matches

Brighton -6............89
West Ham -3...........89
Everton-6...............89
Leicester -5............87
Swansea-6..............87
Bournemouth -5.......86
Crystal palace -6......82

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Spijed » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:47 pm

Coming down nicely!
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Clarets4me » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:59 pm


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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Clarets4me » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:11 pm

Match week 10 now complete, brings into focus our next 4 opponents .... West Ham, Newcastle, Leicester and Palace ...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Clarets4me » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:03 pm

Match week 12 all done, going into another interminable International break ....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LqVX-L4iUO651RioRriLEqXKKTtfyJdA1T5lm5xWGHs/edit#gid=267725110

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piston broke
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby piston broke » Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:20 pm

Bump

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Clarets4me » Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:42 pm

Match week 16 almost complete, apart from Everton v Watford, which is the Monday game !!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LqVX-L4iUO651RioRriLEqXKKTtfyJdA1T5lm5xWGHs/edit#gid=267725110

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gawthorpe_view
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby gawthorpe_view » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:28 pm

I had it explained to me last season and I was still none the wiser.
Ah well, back to staring at the league tables on Teletext.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Clarets4me » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:09 am


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bfccrazy
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby bfccrazy » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:40 am



I oddly found myself thinking “we’ll be fine” after looking at this. When I’ve worried about is going down before it.

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ClaretAndJew
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby ClaretAndJew » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:35 am

Based on form over last 10 games it expects us to finish 19th. Form over last 6 games finish level with Southampton on 17th.

It's our lowest ever points haul at this time in a PL season. It's still very worrying.

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Clarets4me » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:21 am

Match week 21 virtually complete, with the exception of Man.City v Liverpool, the result of which won't affect us much ..

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LqVX-L4iUO651RioRriLEqXKKTtfyJdA1T5lm5xWGHs/edit#gid=267725110

The last two results have greatly improved things ..... Fulham would be a great one to win !!
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Ric_C
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Ric_C » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:06 am

Fulham is massive for obvious reasons. Win that and we go 7 clear of them.

Just had a look at the fixtures and I have us getting to 33 points with 5 games left. The next game after that? Cardiff at home. That could be pivotal.

Then we have our awful last 4 fixtures

It’s going to be very tight

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby RalphCoatesComb » Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:38 pm

Bumped for brexit

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aggi
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby aggi » Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:47 pm

This should be an easier link to view it (but doesn't have the historic tabs which I sometimes remember to do)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ingle=true
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby piston broke » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:11 pm

A look back to week 30 from last year gives us similar figures to week 21 this time.
Still falls on us to garner enough points to get their magic number tumbling.

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Vince Fontaine
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vince Fontaine » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:44 pm

Over the last 3 matches the magic numbers have dropped by


Everton .............73.....-15...58....still to play Bournemouth at home so could drop to 55.
Bournemouth ......72.....-14...58....still to play Everton away today so could drop to 55.
Brighton ............68.....-14...54
Palace...............65.....-15...50
Southampton ......61.....-14...47
Cardiff...............61....-14....47
Newcastle...........63....-17....46
Fulham..............57....-15....42
Huddersfield ......56....-17.....39

Can there be a bad result for us in the Everton Bournemouth match. One drops by 3 or both by 2.

UTC

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Vince Fontaine
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vince Fontaine » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:07 pm

Next 4 fixtures for each club


Burnley
Watford away
Man Utd away
Southampton home
Brighton away


Everton
Southampton away
Huddersfield away
Wolves home
Watford away

Bournemouth
West Ham home
Chelsea home
Cardiff away
Liverpool away

Brighton
Man Utd away
Fulham away
Watford home
Burnley home

Palace
Liverpool away
Southampton away
Fulham home
West Ham

Southampton
Everton home
Palace home
Burnley away
Cardiff home


Cardiff
Newcastle away
Arsenal away
Bournemouth home
Southampton away


Newcastle
Cardiff home
Man City home
Tottenham away
Wolves away


Fulham
Tottenham home
Brighton home
Palace away
Man Utd home


Huddersfield
Man City home
Everton home
Chelsea away
Arsenal home

Newcastle Fulham and Huddersfield look to have the worst fixtures over the next 4 matches.

UTC

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Vince Fontaine
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vince Fontaine » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:22 pm

A bit of perspective

Huddersfield are currently 10 points behind us and with their next 4 fixtures that will leave them with just 12 matches to win at least 4 more than us to finish above us.

Fulham are 7 points behind us and also have 4 difficult fixtures so assuming we get the same number of points over the next four matches they would have to win 3 more than us to finish above us.

I guess that means in some ways it’s who out of the rest has the worst form over the rest of the season goes down.

UTC

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fidelcastro
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby fidelcastro » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:43 am

I reckon it'll take a record number of points to stay up this season.

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Vegas Claret
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vegas Claret » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:21 am

fidelcastro wrote:I reckon it'll take a record number of points to stay up this season.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: hope you are well mate :)

PL is a toss division, the points required will get lower every season I reckon

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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby FactualFrank » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:08 am

Vince Fontaine wrote:Next 4 fixtures for each club


Burnley
Watford away
Man Utd away
Southampton home
Brighton away


Everton
Southampton away
Huddersfield away
Wolves home
Watford away

Bournemouth
West Ham home
Chelsea home
Cardiff away
Liverpool away

Brighton
Man Utd away
Fulham away
Watford home
Burnley home

Palace
Liverpool away
Southampton away
Fulham home
West Ham

Southampton
Everton home
Palace home
Burnley away
Cardiff home


Cardiff
Newcastle away
Arsenal away
Bournemouth home
Southampton away


Newcastle
Cardiff home
Man City home
Tottenham away
Wolves away


Fulham
Tottenham home
Brighton home
Palace away
Man Utd home


Huddersfield
Man City home
Everton home
Chelsea away
Arsenal home

Newcastle Fulham and Huddersfield look to have the worst fixtures over the next 4 matches.

UTC


No need for so much scrolling.

# 44
Vince Fontaine
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Vince Fontaine » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:12 pm

Matchday 23 (22)
they drop again.

Everton................-4....54
Bournemouth...........-1....54
Brighton...............-4....50
Palace.................-4....46
Southampton.........-1....46
Burnley
Newcastle.............-1...45
Cardiff................-4....43
Fulham................-1....41.....played 22 still to play Tottenham at Home
Huddersfield..........-1...38......played 22 still to play Man City at Home

UTC
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Re: Magic Numbers 2018/2019

Postby Clarets4me » Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:01 pm

Match Day 23 completed for all 20 Clubs .....

It's looking increasingly like Huddersfield, Fulham and one other .... as the National Lottery advert used to say, please don't let it be us !!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LqVX-L4iUO651RioRriLEqXKKTtfyJdA1T5lm5xWGHs/edit#gid=267725110

UTC .... :D


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