Brexit: The Naked Truth

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Imploding Turtle
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Imploding Turtle » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:07 pm

dsr wrote:Seeing as 31% of the voters voted for the Brexit party at the last Euro elections, I think it's fair enough to leave them in as a guide to opinions. Sinn Fein, incidentally, don't have any elected members in the House either, but their opinions and those of the people who voted for them are still relevant.


But the opinions of remainers remain relevant, of course.

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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Lowbankclaret » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:12 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Two separate issues here.
If Corbyn calls a vote of no-confidence in Johnson (over no deal) will he win?. Most likely yes.
If he then tries to form a coalition govt. under his leadership will he succeed? - most likely not.
Conclusion: we'll most likely have a coalition govt led by someone else, and in normal circumstances Corbyn would be finished, but we don't live in normal times, so he'd probably stay on as Labour Party leader, and effectively we'd have 2 Labour Parties and 2 Tory Parties, and in those circumstances neither of those parties would really want a general election, so the coalition might last a while longer than anticipated.


I propose to you there will be a general Election year.

I accept we may disagree, but let’s see what happens after the next 2 months.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Imploding Turtle » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:17 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:I propose to you there will be a general Election year.

I accept we may disagree, but let’s see what happens after the next 2 months.


you dropped this

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nil_desperandum
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:23 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:I propose to you there will be a general Election year.

I accept we may disagree, but let’s see what happens after the next 2 months.

Oh, I don't necessarily disagree. I think the next 2 / 3 months will be fascinating and extraordinary, and for those interested in politics will be entertaining to follow - but only from a distance.
Unfortunately though, we're all in the thick of it, and the uncertainty is very damaging to us all. The rest of the world is watching us open-mouthed in astonishment.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Right_winger » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:08 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:It's this kind of reckless irresponsibility that will leave other countries with no choice but to distrust us in the future. You can't create the sort of mess that we've created, and then just walk away blaming everyone else for the inevitable chaos that follows.


What mess and chaos? The people of these islands voted to leave the EU, leaving without a deal IS in part down to the EU and their negotiations. The EU do this to countries all time. If you are not at the table you are on it as far as they are concerned. Bouncing them about could actually benefit us.

JohnMcGreal wrote:If the UK government decides to leave the EU, the single market and the customs union, they know full well that it will lead to checks on goods and people between us and other EU member states. They know full well that it undermines the GFA, which is a formal, International Treaty lodged with the UN.


There doesn’t have to be a hard border if we don’t want one. The EU are demanding one to protect THEIR SM. Any hard border would be for the EU to demand. With regards to the GFA it could be argued that the Eire have flouted it anyway or at least some of the PIRA.

JohnMcGreal wrote:You can sit there and blame the EU all you like, but everyone in the world will know exactly who trashed that agreement, and defaulted on their financial obligations, and they won't be forthcoming with goodwill when we need their co-operation on things like trade in the future.


Again there is no financial obligations. If/when we leave we don’t pay any further. End of story. Any negotiation regards financial obligations are just that, May left
The 39Billion there in return for a new treaty. With regards to trade tariffs aren’t the end of the world especially when we can cut corporation tax, run free ports and the likes to counteract the final cost to the consumer (us) Since we import more than we export to the EU we win all ends up with tariffs anyway. Where do you think the tariffs go to?

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Spijed
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Spijed » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:20 pm

Right_winger wrote:What mess and chaos? The people of these islands voted to leave the EU


You mean just England & Wales?

That's why the United Kingdom is pretty much at an end because of Brexit.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:32 pm

Spijed wrote:You mean just England & Wales?

That's why the United Kingdom is pretty much at an end because of Brexit.


Out of interest, if Brexit wasn't happening and Scotland had a 2nd referendum that resulted in them leaving, what would you be blaming break up on then?

SNP have always been clear that they're wanting a 2nd referendum on independence and they would've found a reason without Brexit.

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nil_desperandum
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:40 pm

GodIsADeeJay81 wrote:Out of interest, if Brexit wasn't happening and Scotland had a 2nd referendum that resulted in them leaving, what would you be blaming break up on then?

SNP have always been clear that they're wanting a 2nd referendum on independence and they would've found a reason without Brexit.

Totally disagree. Can't think that the SNP would have any excuse to be agitating for another referendum were it not for the broken promises about continued EU membership made at the last Indyref. But that isn't the point in any case.
The point is that the chances of the Scots actually voting for independence remain pretty low whilst we have the status quo or remain in the CU, but if there's a no deal or damaging English brexit, then the chances of the Scots and Irish voting for independence grow significantly to the point that it seems quite likely.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Right_winger » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:42 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Totally disagree. Can't think that the SNP would have any excuse to be agitating for another referendum were it not for the broken promises about continued EU membership made at the last Indyref. But that isn't the point in any case.
The point is that the chances of the Scots actually voting for independence remain pretty low whilst we have the status quo or remain in the CU, but if there's a no deal or damaging English brexit, then the chances of the Scots and Irish voting for independence grow significantly to the point that it seems quite likely.


Clearly know nothing about the SNP then. Their whole existence involves breaking the Union.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dermotdermot » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:47 pm

Corbyn shouldn't be anywhere near the position that he craves. He is incapable of being part of a coalition. He is not a democrat. He is a totalitarian. It would be a case of 'what he says goes'. He takes no notice whatsoever of 80% of his supposed party colleagues, let alone a cross party coalition. This idea comes across to me as the complete nightmare.

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AndrewJB
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:57 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Ok. I generally agree with much of what you post, but we're miles apart on this. Simple question.
Do you seriously think that if Johnson loses a vote of confidence that a "remain / people's vote" coalition would have Corbyn as interim Prime Minister?
He simply would not get the support. If MPs of other parties were to agree to a Labour PM leading a coalition, they might agree to Starmer, (who has generally had "good brexit"), Yvette Cooper, (who has already worked closely with Nick Boles), or Hillary Benn.
I must say, I can't really see the logic of Corbyn leading a coalition either. If he wants to win a General Election on a Labour manifesto, he should stay out of any agreement / coalition with other parties, let other members of his party get involved and wait for the election that will follow.

Look how it has split the country!:)

I don’t think this is going to be an actual coalition, but just a working agreement. And one with a life only long enough to get us to a general election. Some people have suggested it should put in place a second referendum, but that would only be followed by another election (and the Brexit supporting parties would campaign on immediate withdrawal anyway), so I think a second referendum is better after an election.

As for Corbyn, this isn’t about making him a prime minister to enact a communist agenda, but bring the country back from a no deal disaster. Already the other parties are coming around to it, and as they do the pressure will mount on Swinson to follow suit. Personally I can’t see how someone who voted for the bedroom tax, and who as employment secretary allowed the imposition of illegal and extortionate fees for workplace tribunals could justify letting a no deal take place for such a petty reason as keeping Corbyn out of number 10. Let's face it. If she did this her members will probably make her the shortest lived LibDem leader in history.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby GodIsADeeJay81 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:59 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Totally disagree. Can't think that the SNP would have any excuse to be agitating for another referendum were it not for the broken promises about continued EU membership made at the last Indyref. But that isn't the point in any case.
The point is that the chances of the Scots actually voting for independence remain pretty low whilst we have the status quo or remain in the CU, but if there's a no deal or damaging English brexit, then the chances of the Scots and Irish voting for independence grow significantly to the point that it seems quite likely.


Before the EU referendum was held...

Screenshot_20190815-225853.png
Screenshot_20190815-225853.png (236.86 KiB) Viewed 509 times

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:15 pm

AndrewJB wrote:As for Corbyn, this isn’t about making him a prime minister to enact a communist agenda, but bring the country back from a no deal disaster. Already the other parties are coming around to it, and as they do the pressure will mount on Swinson to follow suit. Personally I can’t see how someone who voted for the bedroom tax, and who as employment secretary allowed the imposition of illegal and extortionate fees for workplace tribunals could justify letting a no deal take place for such a petty reason as keeping Corbyn out of number 10. Let's face it. If she did this her members will probably make her the shortest lived LibDem leader in history.

But as a leaver Corbyn wouldn't be credible as the leader of a group that was opposing no deal and more than likely working towards a People's Vote. He would be a totally divisive figure, and when you then factor in his total incompetence, I just don't see how it could work. Could he ever claim to speak for the majority of the country and attempt to re-unite it?
I honestly can't see it.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:47 pm

Spijed wrote:You mean just England & Wales?

That's why the United Kingdom is pretty much at an end because of Brexit.

Is it merely a formality that Scotland will have another referendum and will vote to leave? Because if so, no-one has told Nicola Sturgeon, otherwise why would she be holding back? Get the vote done. That's what she wants.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:54 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Two separate issues here.
If Corbyn calls a vote of no-confidence in Johnson (over no deal) will he win?. Most likely yes.
If he then tries to form a coalition govt. under his leadership will he succeed? - most likely not.
Conclusion: we'll most likely have a coalition govt led by someone else, and in normal circumstances Corbyn would be finished, but we don't live in normal times, so he'd probably stay on as Labour Party leader, and effectively we'd have 2 Labour Parties and 2 Tory Parties, and in those circumstances neither of those parties would really want a general election, so the coalition might last a while longer than anticipated.

There are already checks on every single transaction made between VATable companies across the Irish border. Every single transaction gets reported to HMRC. What Remainers, or some of them, never cease to point out is that there can be no checks other than physical checks of goods crossing the border; this is of course not true. Physical checks are the simplest form of check, but by no means the only one.

There are two conflicting issues here. One, the Goof Friday Agreement; two, cross-border smuggling. Remainers like to claim that the cross-border smuggling issue is paramount and everything possible must be done to stop it, and that that issue means that either the Good Friday Agreement fails or Brexit ceases to happen, then Brexit must cease to happen. But that is all based on the idea that cross-border smuggling trumps the GFA/Brexit situation.

If instead you treat cross-border smuggling as a relatively minor matter - which it is - then you can keep the GFA by having no border controls, and you can keep Brexit by having electronic monitoring of trade with physical checks of suspicious loads which do not have to be at the border. A bit more smuggling goes on, yes. But where is the significance of that compared with the Good Friday Agreement and the Brexit referendum?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby aggi » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:04 am

dsr wrote:There are already checks on every single transaction made between VATable companies across the Irish border. Every single transaction gets reported to HMRC. What Remainers, or some of them, never cease to point out is that there can be no checks other than physical checks of goods crossing the border; this is of course not true. Physical checks are the simplest form of check, but by no means the only one.

There are two conflicting issues here. One, the Goof Friday Agreement; two, cross-border smuggling. Remainers like to claim that the cross-border smuggling issue is paramount and everything possible must be done to stop it, and that that issue means that either the Good Friday Agreement fails or Brexit ceases to happen, then Brexit must cease to happen. But that is all based on the idea that cross-border smuggling trumps the GFA/Brexit situation.

If instead you treat cross-border smuggling as a relatively minor matter - which it is - then you can keep the GFA by having no border controls, and you can keep Brexit by having electronic monitoring of trade with physical checks of suspicious loads which do not have to be at the border. A bit more smuggling goes on, yes. But where is the significance of that compared with the Good Friday Agreement and the Brexit referendum?


Well, Remainers plus every other country in the world with borders.

No one is suggesting your straw man position that the only type of valid checks are physical checks at the border. What they are suggesting is that there isn't a system in place anywhere that allows you to do away with checks at borders.

Maybe the UK is going to pioneer an entirely new type of border controls but personally I'm not convinced. Nothing in this current **** show has shown me we currently have that capability.

We could of course just leave the border open as you suggest but, if that's the plan, why are we bothering with all of this.
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dsr
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:24 am

aggi wrote:Well, Remainers plus every other country in the world with borders.

No one is suggesting your straw man position that the only type of valid checks are physical checks at the border. What they are suggesting is that there isn't a system in place anywhere that allows you to do away with checks at borders.

Maybe the UK is going to pioneer an entirely new type of border controls but personally I'm not convinced. Nothing in this current **** show has shown me we currently have that capability.

We could of course just leave the border open as you suggest but, if that's the plan, why are we bothering with all of this.

You are of course correct that last time Ireland and the UK were not part of the same free trade agreement, we had border posts. Where I would disagree is that this means we must have border posts now. After all, in 1973 there was very little use of computers, no use at all of email, electronic filing, barcode scanning, or other helpful systems to smooth the wheels. And just because at one time none of those things had been used, it doesn't mean that none of them ever could be used.

Obviously Sweden and Norway are now part of the same economic area (though not customs union) and they manage without border posts. But how did they manage before 1994? We could take tips from them.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-eur ... k-ireland/

I have frequently said that smuggling is better policed by border posts. But there are three options here, and we can only have two of them.

1. Brexit, as per referendum result.
2. Good Friday Agreement.
3. Money saved by cutting down on smuggling.

Which of the three can be most easily sacrificed? Surely it's the smuggling money.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby AndrewJB » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:30 am

nil_desperandum wrote:But as a leaver Corbyn wouldn't be credible as the leader of a group that was opposing no deal and more than likely working towards a People's Vote. He would be a totally divisive figure, and when you then factor in his total incompetence, I just don't see how it could work. Could he ever claim to speak for the majority of the country and attempt to re-unite it?
I honestly can't see it.

Corbyn supported the Remain side in the referendum, and even if you doubt his sincerity on this, he’s been implacably opposed to no deal, and that will be his only task as caretaker PM - to revoke or suspend A50, and hold a general election.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby dsr » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:40 am

AndrewJB wrote:Corbyn supported the Remain side in the referendum, and even if you doubt his sincerity on this, he’s been implacably opposed to no deal, and that will be his only task as caretaker PM - to revoke or suspend A50, and hold a general election.

I would agree with that in theory. Certainly any argument that the coalition would be worried about Corbyn clinging to power are groundless, because there is no way he (or any other PM, for that matter) would survive a vote of confidence if he tried to do any more than the remit of overturning or delaying Brexit.

I'm sure there are loads of arguments against Corbyn being the man, lack of competence being high on the list, but there's no need to worry about him outstaying his "welcome".

Here's a question. What happens if this "grand coalition" manages to vote in a new PM with a sort-of mandate to apply for yet another extension, and the EU says no? Would they then sign May's deal - God forbid?

Whatever happens, as long as the Tory party (malcontents aside) stays united, and stands united at the next election (when the malcontents will have gone), that unity - hard-won though it was - will stand them in good stead against a Labour party where still nobody knows what they actually want.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby AndrewJB » Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:23 am

dsr wrote:I would agree with that in theory. Certainly any argument that the coalition would be worried about Corbyn clinging to power are groundless, because there is no way he (or any other PM, for that matter) would survive a vote of confidence if he tried to do any more than the remit of overturning or delaying Brexit.

I'm sure there are loads of arguments against Corbyn being the man, lack of competence being high on the list, but there's no need to worry about him outstaying his "welcome".

Here's a question. What happens if this "grand coalition" manages to vote in a new PM with a sort-of mandate to apply for yet another extension, and the EU says no? Would they then sign May's deal - God forbid?

Whatever happens, as long as the Tory party (malcontents aside) stays united, and stands united at the next election (when the malcontents will have gone), that unity - hard-won though it was - will stand them in good stead against a Labour party where still nobody knows what they actually want.

I can't see that happening, but I suppose that if it did the only available reaction would be for the working group to revoke A50 (though a leave party could campaign in the next election to immediately withdraw from the EU). It's better for the EU if the UK remains, so I can't see why they'd force us out

The next election will be interesting.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:38 am

AndrewJB wrote:Corbyn supported the Remain side in the referendum, and even if you doubt his sincerity on this, he’s been implacably opposed to no deal, and that will be his only task as caretaker PM - to revoke or suspend A50, and hold a general election.

Sorry. That naively assumes that the world stands still during this "interim" period.
Anything could happen domestically or in the wider world during this time, and the PM needs to have sufficient level of competency and support to be able to handle it.
How many MPs would consider Jezza t be "safe pair of hands"?, and that's the usual criteria for a "caretaker" type appointment.
One quality Corbyn does have though is that he would actually look like a caretaker, so maybe in some eyes that would make him more suited than Johnson who also lacks competency and support.
Edit:
Since posting I note that both Ken Clarke and Harriet Harman would be prepared to take on a caretaker role.
You might not like either of them, but they both have decades of experience and would most likely command more support and respect than most across the house.
It's far more likely (IMO) that they can - possibly working together - get a majority in the house.
Last edited by nil_desperandum on Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:40 am

dsr wrote:There are already checks on every single transaction made between VATable companies across the Irish border. Every single transaction gets reported to HMRC. What Remainers, or some of them, never cease to point out is that there can be no checks other than physical checks of goods crossing the border; this is of course not true. Physical checks are the simplest form of check, but by no means the only one.

There are two conflicting issues here. One, the Goof Friday Agreement; two, cross-border smuggling. Remainers like to claim that the cross-border smuggling issue is paramount and everything possible must be done to stop it, and that that issue means that either the Good Friday Agreement fails or Brexit ceases to happen, then Brexit must cease to happen. But that is all based on the idea that cross-border smuggling trumps the GFA/Brexit situation.

If instead you treat cross-border smuggling as a relatively minor matter - which it is - then you can keep the GFA by having no border controls, and you can keep Brexit by having electronic monitoring of trade with physical checks of suspicious loads which do not have to be at the border. A bit more smuggling goes on, yes. But where is the significance of that compared with the Good Friday Agreement and the Brexit referendum?

Trying desperately to work out how that in any way addresses my point that you have quoted.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:47 am

dsr wrote:
Whatever happens, as long as the Tory party (malcontents aside) stays united, and stands united at the next election (when the malcontents will have gone), that unity - hard-won though it was - will stand them in good stead against a Labour party where still nobody knows what they actually want.

How can it STAY united?
Are you tying to claim that Johnson's Tory Party is united?
It was the ERG that split the party and brought May down, and now some of them are even saying that they might vote for Corbyn as PM.
Describing the Tory Party as united is one of the daftest things you've ever posted.
Indeed in your own post you refer to "malcontents". The party is almost irreconcilably divided.
Michael Portillo's recent excellent documentary highlighted this.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Imploding Turtle » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:50 am

nil_desperandum wrote:How can it STAY united?
Are you tying to claim that Johnson's Tory Party is united?
It was the ERG that split the party and brought May down, and now some of them are even saying that they might vote for Corbyn as PM.
Describing the Tory Party as united is one of the daftest things you've ever posted.
Indeed in your own post you refer to "malcontents". The party is almost irreconcilably divided.
Michael Portillo's recent excellent documentary highlighted this.



The Tory party is united. Brexit chaos is Remains fault. Solar power doesn't work. Climate change isn't real. The Laffer curve is sound economic theory. Trickle-down economics works.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby AndrewJB » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:53 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Sorry. That naively assumes that the world stands still during this "interim" period.
Anything could happen domestically or in the wider world during this time, and the PM needs to have sufficient level of competency and support to be able to handle it.
How many MPs would consider Jezza t be "safe pair of hands"?, and that's the usual criteria for a "caretaker" type appointment.
One quality Corbyn does have though is that he would actually look like a caretaker, so maybe in some eyes that would make him more suited than Johnson who also lacks competency and support.
Edit:
Since posting I note that both Ken Clarke and Harriet Harman would be prepared to take on a caretaker role.
You might not like either of them, but they both have decades of experience and would most likely command more support and respect than most across the house.
It's far more likely (IMO) that they can - possibly working together - get a majority in the house.

Where we disagree most is probably our assessments of Corbyn’s competence. The only things I have to judge him on are his opinions voiced as domestic and world affairs unfold, and as I see it he comes out on the right side of history more often than not. His call on Iraq, Libya and Syria, on austerity, and hostile environment immigration policy (and quite a few other things) were right, and counter to the prevailing fashion of the day. From this I see his decision making as good. For execution he’s got the civil service to implement his direction.
As a Londoner I’ve seen first hand how an incompetent mayor - Johnson - can’t completely screw everything up, because the civil service keep things ticking over so well.

I’ve seen this morning that Swinson will now meet with Corbyn to discuss joint action.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby summitclaret » Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:15 pm

I can't believe that people think that the HOC would vote to revoke A50 without another referundum.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby tiger76 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:37 pm

summitclaret wrote:I can't believe that people think that the HOC would vote to revoke A50 without another referundum.


Ideally they wouldn't,but if we're going to hold another referendum(not my preferred option BTW),i can't see how that's possible without yet another extension,whether the EU would grant a further delay probably depends on what occurs once MP'S return from their Summer recess,if they really give a hoot about dealing with brexit ,they'd get their butts back to Westminster ASAP.

If there is another referendum i won't bother participating,what's the point they don't care what the electorate think anyway,ditto a GE the choice between a rabid right-wing government,or a loony left government,both equally as incompetent and racist no thanks.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Darthlaw » Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:09 pm

tiger76 wrote:Ideally they wouldn't,but if we're going to hold another referendum(not my preferred option BTW),i can't see how that's possible without yet another extension,whether the EU would grant a further delay probably depends on what occurs once MP'S return from their Summer recess.

If there is another referendum i won't bother participating,what's the point they don't care what the electorate think anyway,ditto a GE the choice between a rabid right-wing government,or a loony left government,both equally as incompetent and racist no thanks.


I can only imagine the most rabid foamy mouth remain MP's would vote to revoke A50, even if it is to avoid a no deal Brexit, so I can't see that flying. Murmurings around Labour strongholds like Barnsley, that they would vote Tory due to the perceived betrayal, would put paid to that. What is clear is that only a small percentage of the HOC put what they believe is best for the country ahead of what is best for themselves.

What is clear is that if a GE is triggered, manifesto's will be pointless due to the coalitions which would need to be formed for either side to win a majority. Tory/Brexit/DUP vs Lab/Lib/SNP/Green/Plaid. I foresee a lot of silly promises being made during the campaign only for backtracking because 'X Party who we're in a coalition with doesn't like that policy'.

One thing is for certain, an unused vote is still wasted but don't expect to get what you actually vote for.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:20 pm

Darthlaw wrote:I can only imagine the most rabid foamy mouth remain MP's would vote to revoke A50, even if it is to avoid a no deal Brexit, so I can't see that flying. Murmurings around Labour strongholds like Barnsley, that they would vote Tory due to the perceived betrayal, would put paid to that. What is clear is that only a small percentage of the HOC put what they believe is best for the country ahead of what is best for themselves.

What is clear is that if a GE is triggered, manifesto's will be pointless due to the coalitions which would need to be formed for either side to win a majority. Tory/Brexit/DUP vs Lab/Lib/SNP/Green/Plaid. I foresee a lot of silly promises being made during the campaign only for backtracking because 'X Party who we're in a coalition with doesn't like that policy'.

One thing is for certain, an unused vote is still wasted but don't expect to get what you actually vote for.

Two points from the above.
The only circumstance in which MPs would revoke Article 50 would be if the EU were to point blank refuse an extension beyond Oct 31st - which is highly unlikely. But if it came down to it I'm certain that they would only revoke as part of some govt amendment that guaranteed another referendum (within say 3 months) with a firm leave option, so effectively it would be the same as a delay.
The other point is that Labour can't just look at seats like Barnsley. It's got to look at the UK as a whole. If a few Turkeys in Barnsley want to vote for Christmas then they'll have to accept the consequences, but Labour can't afford to be wiped from the map by the Lib Dems in large areas of the country for fear of losing maybe a dozen seats to the Brexit Party in Yorkshire.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby elwaclaret » Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:26 pm

I think Corbyn has just grasped and failed to reach his last straw. I said when Boris was elected it was all to play for... and the Tories would see it as a good time to sort out parliament. I expect deselections from the Tory party are being worked out as we speak in preparation for a snap election, meanwhile Corbyn’s offer has further hamstrung remain... that all see power for themselves as trumping their remain agenda.... Labour are in serious danger of becoming an irrelevance.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:28 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Where we disagree most is probably our assessments of Corbyn’s competence. .

Let's agree on that.
I base my view on his weekly performances in the Commons, his "handling" of the anti-Semitism crisis in his party, his continued misplaced faith in Dianne Abbot and Seumas Milne, and the many other faux pas that we see on a regular basis.
I do happen to agree with him on many things, but I have no faith in his ability to manage or lead anything. If Corbyn had shown properly leadership in the 2016 Referendum Campaign (rather than refusing to campaign alongside others) then it's doubtful we'd now be in this mess.
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Spijed » Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:41 pm

elwaclaret wrote:I think Corbyn has just grasped and failed to reach his last straw. I said when Boris was elected it was all to play for... and the Tories would see it as a good time to sort out parliament. I expect deselections from the Tory party are being worked out as we speak in preparation for a snap election, meanwhile Corbyn’s offer has further hamstrung remain... that all see power for themselves as trumping their remain agenda.... Labour are in serious danger of becoming an irrelevance.


Do you think Johnson might even call an election before any VoNC takes place?

If the Tory party deselect MP's they will also have to remove Ken Clarke, one of the most respected politicians. Can't see that going down too well.

Also, it's pretty obvious that for the Conservatives to gain power outright, they will have to make up the guaranteed losses (all 13 seats in Scotland) and a further 20-30 to the LD's. The day that Boris set foot in Scotland basically wiped out any Conservative support.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby elwaclaret » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:16 pm

Spijed wrote:Do you think Johnson might even call an election before any VoNC takes place?

If the Tory party deselect MP's they will also have to remove Ken Clarke, one of the most respected politicians. Can't see that going down too well.

Also, it's pretty obvious that for the Conservatives to gain power outright, they will have to make up the guaranteed losses (all 13 seats in Scotland) and a further 20-30 to the LD's. The day that Boris set foot in Scotland basically wiped out any Conservative support.


No argument from me Spijed... and yes I think they will decide it is a price worth paying. The liberal dems will get a massive boost from Brexit, but I expect the Tory machine to turn on their policies soon enough.... Labour will retain the ‘I vote Labour’ but lose the swing, a new balance in Parliament, with an improved majority of brexit friendly Torres. Then it will be leave and five years of Tory utopia while the other parties try to sort their acts out.

Corbin needs to go, he should already be history. They are leaving it too late.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:29 pm

elwaclaret wrote:No argument from me Spijed... and yes I think they will decide it is a price worth paying. The liberal dems will get a massive boost from Brexit, but I expect the Tory machine to turn on their policies soon enough.... Labour will retain the ‘I vote Labour’ but lose the swing, a new balance in Parliament, with an improved majority of brexit friendly Torres. Then it will be leave and five years of Tory utopia while the other parties try to sort their acts out.

Corbin needs to go, he should already be history. They are leaving it too late.

Problem for the Conservatives is that they won't be able to unite over any manifesto.
Clarke, Morgan, Grieve, Greening, Stewart and quite a lot of others won't fight an election on a "no deal" manifesto, and they are highly unlikely to lose their seats either, so when you factor that in alongside losses to Lib Dems in many areas, and a wipe out in Scotland, then it would be an enormous gamble for Johnson to think he could get enough "brexit friendly" (to use your words) MPs elected to form a majority government.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby tiger76 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:38 pm

elwaclaret wrote:No argument from me Spijed... and yes I think they will decide it is a price worth paying. The liberal dems will get a massive boost from Brexit, but I expect the Tory machine to turn on their policies soon enough.... Labour will retain the ‘I vote Labour’ but lose the swing, a new balance in Parliament, with an improved majority of brexit friendly Torres. Then it will be leave and five years of Tory utopia while the other parties try to sort their acts out.

Corbin needs to go, he should already be history. They are leaving it too late.


Corbyn couldn't win an election in 2017,despite the Conservatives running the worst campaign in living memory,so there's no chance he'll win an outright majority next time,he might with some luck see Labour emerge as the largest single party,but he'll have to rely on the Lib Dems and possibly the SNP for support,the likely cost of any such support will almost certainly be a 2nd EU ref,and Sturgeon will demand a section 30 i'd imagine.

Whatever the result i can't see either of the 2 main parties carrying a majority in the HOC,so it's very likely we'll still be in a stalemate situation.

I agree regarding Corbyn,his peak was in 2017,and he's now a drain on Labour's potential vote,Keir Starmer would have a much better chance of becoming PM,but Labour's ideology won't allow a centrist to take the reins,until that changes they'll be stuck in opposition.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby elwaclaret » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:39 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Problem for the Conservatives is that they won't be able to unite over any manifesto.
Clarke, Morgan, Grieve, Greening, Stewart and quite a lot of others won't fight an election on a "no deal" manifesto, and they are highly unlikely to lose their seats either, so when you factor that in alongside losses to Lib Dems in many areas, and a wipe out in Scotland, then it would be an enormous gamble for Johnson to think he could get enough "brexit friendly" (to use your words) MPs elected to form a majority government.


I understand your point, but don’t necessarily agree. Most of those listed are in Conservative ‘safe houses’ they can be shuffled to fight tougher seats with the expectation they will have a pull. It depends on how the Conservative’s play it, but despite the hand ringing going on at the moment I’m pretty sure the Tory’s are in better shape now than they have been for years... the Liberal party will finally be forgiven for the coalition, but the Labour Party will swap places with them. Ken Clarke is the last of the old guard... and sadly at times it is starting to show, It could see him being shuffled into party high office away from the firing line - think we’ll see the real Boris government hitting the ground running after recess, and I think it will be more than enough to blow a path. My main fear is that they will end up too powerful at the end of all this.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Guller Bull » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:52 pm

And maybe the biggest swing will be all those that realise that mainstream politics does not represent us.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Spijed » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:05 pm

elwaclaret wrote:I understand your point, but don’t necessarily agree. Most of those listed are in Conservative ‘safe houses’ they can be shuffled to fight tougher seats with the expectation they will have a pull. It depends on how the Conservative’s play it, but despite the hand ringing going on at the moment I’m pretty sure the Tory’s are in better shape now than they have been for years... the Liberal party will finally be forgiven for the coalition, but the Labour Party will swap places with them. Ken Clarke is the last of the old guard... and sadly at times it is starting to show, It could see him being shuffled into party high office away from the firing line - think we’ll see the real Boris government hitting the ground running after recess, and I think it will be more than enough to blow a path. My main fear is that they will end up too powerful at the end of all this.


You probably need to look at websites such as http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk

Separately, the polling guru - John Curtice thinks there will still be a hung parliament. It's seats like Canterbury which will be problematic for the Tories and in Labour strongholds they might want Brexit but they will never ever forgive Margaret Thatcher, who many regard as pure evil, especially the mining community.

They could vote for the Brexit party but not a party who still see Maggie as a great leader. That's why seats like Sunderland will stay red.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Spijed » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:29 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Ken Clarke is the last of the old guard... and sadly at times it is starting to show, It could see him being shuffled into party high office away from the firing line.


Can't see Ken Clarke ever agreeing to be 'shuffled' away as it seems he has ambitions to be PM:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49372525

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby elwaclaret » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:52 pm

Spijed wrote:Can't see Ken Clarke ever agreeing to be 'shuffled' away as it seems he has ambitions to be PM:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49372525


Sorry says it all, really. He was a wet before he’s sopping now... a million miles from his party membership.

Still expect a deal as it happens. Was listening to former chancellor Schroeder the other day. Germany are waking up to what this means to Franco-German relations. Germany has sailed in the calm waters between French protectionism and British free trade. Europe has a major problem if Germany has to become the most free market, the French become the enemy. THEY need a deal.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:53 pm

elwaclaret wrote:I understand your point, but don’t necessarily agree. Most of those listed are in Conservative ‘safe houses’ they can be shuffled to fight tougher seats with the expectation they will have a pull. .

If I understand what you're saying it doesn't make any sense. How can the Tories shuffle MPs around without their consent?
The likes of Clarke, Greening, Grieve will fight and almost certainly win their own seats either as the "official" Tory candidate adopted by their loyal local constituency, or they'll win it campaigning under another "hat" (either as Independents or maybe even as Lib Dems to ensure that the remain vote doesn't get split.)

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby tiger76 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:54 pm

Spijed wrote:You probably need to look at websites such as http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk

Separately, the polling guru - John Curtice thinks there will still be a hung parliament. It's seats like Canterbury which will be problematic for the Tories and in Labour strongholds they might want Brexit but they will never ever forgive Margaret Thatcher, who many regard as pure evil, especially the mining community.

They could vote for the Brexit party but not a party who still see Maggie as a great leader. That's why seats like Sunderland will stay red.


In a lot of Northern seats which voted heavily for brexit,the BP could poll well,however as UKIP found in 2015 it's incredibly hard for minor parties to win under FPTP,in many seats they polled between 20/30% and came a decent 2nd,the BP could damage Labour but equally they could take votes from the Conservatives just as easily,Boris could mitigate the leakage to Farage's crew,but his hard right approach could see moderate Tories eyeing up the Lib Dems as a viable option,both major parties are struggling to maintain broad churches,and i wouldn't be surprised to see them both slip below 40% in a snap election,last time out was a polarised electorate,and the Lib Dems and UKIP were polling poorly,that isn't the case with the Lib Dems and the BP currently.

Then again Boris might think it's worth a throw of the dice,he doesn't have a majority just now,and the Conservatives polling numbers are improving,depends how much of a gambler he is?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby summitclaret » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:55 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Problem for the Conservatives is that they won't be able to unite over any manifesto.
Clarke, Morgan, Grieve, Greening, Stewart and quite a lot of others won't fight an election on a "no deal" manifesto, and they are highly unlikely to lose their seats either, so when you factor that in alongside losses to Lib Dems in many areas, and a wipe out in Scotland, then it would be an enormous gamble for Johnson to think he could get enough "brexit friendly" (to use your words) MPs elected to form a majority government.


It wont say no deal in the way you say. It will say we want a free trade deal but if the EU continue to be unreasonable (by not moving from something that our HOC has rejected 3 times), then we will leave without a deal if necessary.

If a deal is done whereby the tories don't stand in the likes of Burnley and the BP don't stand in places like Brecon, then BJ will be able to get the above through imo.
Last edited by summitclaret on Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Spijed » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:56 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Sorry says it all, really. He was a wet before he’s sopping now... a million miles from his party membership.

Still expect a deal as it happens. Was listening to former chancellor Schroeder the other day. Germany are waking up to what this means to Franco-German relations. Germany has sailed in the calm waters between French protectionism and British free trade. Europe has a major problem if Germany has to become the most free market, the French become the enemy. THEY need a deal.


Regarding Germany:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/ ... 2Y.twitter

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Devils_Advocate » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:57 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Sorry says it all, really. He was a wet before he’s sopping now... a million miles from his party membership.

Still expect a deal as it happens. Was listening to former chancellor Schroeder the other day. Germany are waking up to what this means to Franco-German relations. Germany has sailed in the calm waters between French protectionism and British free trade. Europe has a major problem if Germany has to become the most free market, the French become the enemy. THEY need a deal.

I dont agree with a lot of your thinking but youre at least considered so out of interest what deal you you expect the EU to give us? Which sides red lines in your opinion are gonna give way or flex the most in order to come to an agreement?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Spijed » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:59 pm

tiger76 wrote:Then again Boris might think it's worth a throw of the dice


The one caveat to that is that Boris has longed to be PM. If he suffers the same outcome as Teresa May, his dream job might be very short lived.

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nil_desperandum
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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby nil_desperandum » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:00 pm

elwaclaret wrote: Was listening to former chancellor Schroeder the other day. Germany are waking up to what this means to Franco-German relations. Germany has sailed in the calm waters between French protectionism and British free trade. Europe has a major problem if Germany has to become the most free market, the French become the enemy. THEY need a deal.

That's total nonsense according to ....
....... the Germans themselves.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -briefing/

https://www.ft.com/content/f7d68366-c02 ... e555e96722

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... eal-brexit

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby elwaclaret » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:02 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:I dont agree with a lot of your thinking but youre at least considered so out of interest what deal you you expect the EU to give us? Which sides red lines in your opinion are gonna give way or flex the most in order to come to an agreement?


Think they will agree a free trade deal they can live with a call that the deal... just so they can move on to the next stage and nobody loses face as negotiations continue.

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby Devils_Advocate » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:04 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Think they will agree a free trade deal they can live with a call that the deal... just so they can move on to the next stage and nobody loses face as negotiations continue.

What about the backstop / good friday agreement, how do you think that will be settled as part of the deal?

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Re: Brexit: The Naked Truth

Postby elwaclaret » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:09 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:What about the backstop / good friday agreement, how do you think that will be settled as part of the deal?


I speculate but only within a sensible remit. I have no doubt it is being looked at seriously, if belatedly.


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