duckworth lewis for football

[dr dre]

Given that it is looking more likely we will not be able to complete the season, perhaps something along the lines of Duckworth Lewis could be designed to work out final placings. Average points per game is to blunt an instrument, but perhaps breaking league into top 6 middle 8 and bottom 6 and working average points against teams in those positions could work. For Burnley it would work out as follows:
top 6 7 points gained from a possible 27 so 7/27 of 9 points = 2.33 rounded to 2 points
middle 15 gained from a possible 42 so 15/42 x 6 points = 2.14 rounded to 2 points
bottom 17 gained from possible 24 so 17/24 x12points = 8.5 rounded to 9 points.
so 13 points gained leaving us on 52 for the season.
I am sure this could be refined to take account of home or away points gained and average goals but that would take a better brain than mine.

[ChorltonCharlie]

All well and good at before a season starts in case something like this happens, but no way at this stage. Any complex algorithm would be open to people designing it to suit one team over another. Average points is the fairest, but there's no way the Prem will sign up to that with the monies involved in staying up and Champs League qualification.

[Chester Perry]

I posted this yesterday on the MMT thread - there are links in the attached to a more detailed analysis

There has been much debate about how to declare the season if English Leagues are not able to complete. This blog piece from Leeds Beckett University suggests that maths can be a good tool for declaring results.

https://www.leedsbeckett.ac.uk/blogs/ca ... er-league/

of course there are always outlier's think Leicester 2015 and those 7 wins at the end of the season - this is what legal teams would use I suspect

[dsr]

I posted this yesterday on the MMT thread - there are links in the attached to a more detailed analysis

There has been much debate about how to declare the season if English Leagues are not able to complete. This blog piece from Leeds Beckett University suggests that maths can be a good tool for declaring results.

https://www.leedsbeckett.ac.uk/blogs/ca ... er-league/

of course there are always outlier's think Leicester 2015 and those 7 wins at the end of the season - this is what legal teams would use I suspect

Using mathematics to decide who finishes higher of two clubs 10 points apart, is likely to produce an accurate result.

As it stands, Bournemouth seem to be favourites to go down on goal difference, by 1 goal. Mathematics can predict who finishes higher in that case - with 50.1% certainty. No use.

[conyoviejo]

We are clutching at straws now.. There will be legal claims going in faster than you can say Duckworth Lewis..

[IanMcL]

Home and away effect on the numbers?

[tiger76]

Far too simple,at least in cricket,everyone knows prior to the match starting,DL might come into the equation,and that'll be taken into account by both teams.

Football has too many variables,injuries,referring decisions(even with VAR),penalty misses,teams playing after a European trip,or before a domestic cup tie,or in Arsenal's case,the length of the grass,to just work a mathematical formula is impossible to any accurate degree.

Even the other solution mooted,points per game,doesn't take into account the teams faced,home & away games etc,if the season can't be completed then i can't see how promotion/relegation can be allowed,without major legal ramifications one way or another.

[jollyjack]

Isn't the Magic Numbers the answer to this, under our noses all the time!!!

[Chester Perry]

L'Equipe in France have come up with this approach

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/footb ... table.html

[Rileybobs]

I honestly don’t see how a team can be relegated without the season being finished. It just isn’t fair and it would be ridiculous if it happened.

Declaring Liverpool PL winners and promoting teams is another matter as technically nobody is losing out. Although that would alter the number of teams in each division.

[dsr]

I posted this yesterday on the MMT thread - there are links in the attached to a more detailed analysis

There has been much debate about how to declare the season if English Leagues are not able to complete. This blog piece from Leeds Beckett University suggests that maths can be a good tool for declaring results.

https://www.leedsbeckett.ac.uk/blogs/ca ... er-league/

of course there are always outlier's think Leicester 2015 and those 7 wins at the end of the season - this is what legal teams would use I suspect

I think Dr. Bond's tongue is very firmly in his cheek when he wrote that article. I hope so, anyway.

What he is actually saying is that at the start of the season, any of the 20 clubs could be top and any of them could be bottom. After 10 games, it's starting to sort out who's going to be up there and who's going to be struggling; by and large you can expect teams at the stop to stay near the top and ditto teams at the bottom; the odd one will shoot up or plummet, but not many. And by 30 games, the broad shape of the league is set and any postional changes will only be by a place or three. Hardly any big moves.

So in effect he is saying that while after 10 games there was still a chance that Liverpool, Man City and Leicester could go down, after 30 games there is no chance of that happening. The teams in 10th-11th-12th would have been vulnerable after 10 games, but the teams in 10th-11th-12th after 40 games are pretty safe. All that's going to happen is that the teams around 15th-20th might shuffle around a bit, but probably not much, and it doesn't make much difference statistically whether they finish 17th or 18th. As I said, tongue in cheek.

[mdd2]

If there cannot be any contact on the field and to avoid abandoning the season a simple solution would be penalty shoot outs. Best of five and then you have winners losers or draws. Problems could arise if two teams "playing" each other need one point each to stay up. Then there could be problems a la Jimmy Hill, Coventry some years ago.Or maybe au Jimmy Hill