Can we avoid relegation? Points forecast.

[dougcollins]

I agree absolutely that we are prepared in case we fail; I do not accept we accept failure as a forgone conclusion.

Fair play, elwa.

[gandhisflipflop]

Of course we can do it. The white flag waving is nothing more than a comforter.

[Wokingclaret]

No chance

[RVclaret]

We aren't staying up because we're awful.

Few myths to bust...
* We haven't been unlucky recently. We've taken 8 points from 8 games, but the xG in those games would suggest a return of more like 5 points. From the 6 before that we lost them all, but could have easily have had a return of 3 points. Can even itself out, but we're not being 'unlucky'. For context we've deserved 5 points from 8 games which includes 20th, 18th and 17th at home.
* we haven't got a problem with taking chances, we have a problem creating them. We're over-performing our xG by 3 goals for the season. Mainly down to the Sheff Utd game, across the rest of the season we're bang on the xG which as it happens is the worst in the division.
* VAR is not a reason for our low points total. In only one scenario has it been incorrectly used and that we had an apology for. If you think we've been unfairly treated by VAR other than Forest, then I've got news for you. You'll find fans of every other team that think the same.

VAR being used correctly is making sure correct decisons are made. Bournemouth away, should have been a penalty to us for clear handball in the final minutes; Villa away, overturn the penalty decision for a clear dive and/or send off Carlos for deliberate last man handball; Forest away, received a PGMOL apology for this; Luton home, most obvious foul you’ll ever see on Trafford. 6 points right there.

Agree on xG creation albeit I’d like to see our average xG with Foster in the team vs without. Makes a huge difference to our chance creation and he’s been available for just 50% of mins. Hopefully stays fit moving forward. I don’t agree with using xG for saying ‘the xG suggests a return more like 5 points’ - context is required, for example Villa’s was always going to be higher than ours as 1. It’s Villa at Villa park 2. We had 10 men for half a game. Yet still we’d have fully deserved at least a point there.

[Pearcey]

If we were sat in mid table and someone else was in our position we’d be saying they were down. Despite better performances recently and a few games where we’ve been robbed I don’t think we’ve got a cat in hells chance of staying up.

[It Is What It Is]

OP here.
I just hope there's not the same negativity and apathy in the dressing room.
I am sure the lads believe in themselves at the very least.
Yes extremely difficult tasks lies ahead of them, but I have not witnessed any lack of spirit, commitment, belief and passion till the final whistle of every game we have played.
So if they believe....so do I.
Disillusioned or not.

[claret54]

We want it to happen but are just being realistic. That’s all.

Yes we want it to happen. So as supporters we need to believe it's possible. The example of Leicester quoted earlier should give us hope.
Let's be supportive.

[JohnMac]

I'm not confident we will get to anywhere near 30 points this season.

[Rileybobs]

OP here.
I just hope there's not the same negativity and apathy in the dressing room.
I am sure the lads believe in themselves at the very least.
Yes extremely difficult tasks lies ahead of them, but I have not witnessed any lack of spirit, commitment, belief and passion till the final whistle of every game we have played.
So if they believe....so do I.
Disillusioned or not.

Yes, the spirit, commitment, belief and passion til the final whistle has been evident with all of the no points we’ve won this season after going behind.

[boatshed bill]

I still believe we have a chance (with 8 wins).
If you have no faith what is the point?

[jojomk1]

OP here.
I just hope there's not the same negativity and apathy in the dressing room.
I am sure the lads believe in themselves at the very least.
Yes extremely difficult tasks lies ahead of them, but I have not witnessed any lack of spirit, commitment, belief and passion till the final whistle of every game we have played.
So if they believe....so do I.
Disillusioned or not.

It is not negativity or apathy
It is reality
As for the team there is no lack of spirit or commitment shown by them as individuals
They are just not good enough, at this moment in time, for this league as a team
The buck does not stop with them as individuals
It's down to the summer recruitment (by whoever) and the lack of tactical nous from our manager

[vinrogue]

Some time ago I predicted a maximum 31 points were possible. I still believe that is the maximum we could achieve. We need some on field real leadership to get this group fighting and god only knows who that is going to be and of the current squad I only have Cork who helped Cullen last year develop.

[Carlos the Great]

I’ve seen nothing to suggest our season is about to have a complete u turn and we will start picking up points every week … I’ve accepted our fate … I’m wondering how we will fare next season in the championship … VK had an unbelievable season last time round but might not be the same with this squad .time will tell

[Casper2]

OP here.
I just hope there's not the same negativity and apathy in the dressing room.
I am sure the lads believe in themselves at the very least.
Yes extremely difficult tasks lies ahead of them, but I have not witnessed any lack of spirit, commitment, belief and passion till the final whistle of every game we have played.
So if they believe....so do I.
Disillusioned or not.

You wasn’t at Bournemouth or Brentford then plus numerous others , the season has been a shambles in all areas of the club .

[ClaretPete001]

I'm not sure how some poster's genes survived evolution.

Faced with a Lion their ancestors would likely have wandered over in their loin cloths with a pouch full of kitty kat and tried to pat the thing on the head on the basis that '...it looks friendly enough'.

My guess is that if we hit 30 points it will be a good return for the second half of the season and we will go down with some optimism.

[It Is What It Is]

It is not negativity or apathy
It is reality
As for the team there is no lack of spirit or commitment shown by them as individuals
They are just not good enough, at this moment in time, for this league as a team
The buck does not stop with them as individuals
It's down to the summer recruitment (by whoever) and the lack of tactical nous from our manager

Reality means the state of things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional idea of them.
So your interpretation of reality regarding relegation is incorrect.
Whilst avoiding relegation is a hard task it is not yet real.

[Casper2]

Reality means the state of things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional idea of them.
So your interpretation of reality regarding relegation is incorrect.
Whilst avoiding relegation is a hard task it is not yet real.

What to bet ?

[Ampth7]

If we can stop conceding 2/3 goals per game and if we can start scoring more than 1 goal per game, then yeah sure, we can do it!!!
Seriously though, joking aside, I’m personally not seeing anything in our performances on the pitch to suggest a dramatic turnaround is imminent. I really hope I’m wrong, I really do, and I’ll even do a Gary Lineker by offering to run through Burnley in only my pants if we somehow avoid relegation……

[ClaretPete001]

Reality means the state of things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional idea of them.
So your interpretation of reality regarding relegation is incorrect.
Whilst avoiding relegation is a hard task it is not yet real.

So, you don't think it's idealistic or a notional idea to suggest that a team that has won 3 in 21 will win 8 in 17?

Have you seen a white rabbit recently?

[It Is What It Is]

So, you don't think it's idealistic or a notional idea to suggest that a team that has won 3 in 21 will win 8 in 17?

Have you seen a white rabbit recently?

Blimey are you French or Italian?....they wave white flags when the chips are down.
I'd have hated to be alongside you in the trenches...your white flag together with your white rabbit would betray
all.

[ClaretPete001]

Blimey are you French or Italian?....they wave white flags when the chips are down.
I'd have hated to be alongside you in the trenches...your white flag together with your white rabbit would betray
all.

I know you would have won the war in 1914. 'It's alright Sarge one down only another 12 million and a smoking caterpillar to go. Light me up a another spliff - I'll be done by lunch time'.....!

[CrosspoolClarets]

20 more points and will finish on 32.

That may narrowly finish above Luton and would only have a chance of staying up if Forest or Everton get a further deduction.

[ClaretinJapan]

Not with the likes of Tresor coming on to shore up the defence if we manage to be leading.

[Wokingclaret]

Mind you if one signing can make a difference look at Toney at Brentford made all the difference

[jojomk1]

Reality means the state of things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional idea of them.
So your interpretation of reality regarding relegation is incorrect.
Whilst avoiding relegation is a hard task it is not yet real.

Relegation is more likely to happen than us finishing with 40 points

[ElectroClaret]

Relegation is more likely to happen than us finishing with 40 points

Far more likely.

[Blatherwickstattoo]

On target for about 24 points on current form . Not a cat in hells chance even if Everton and Forrest get docked 10 points

[gtclaret]

Don't wanna **** in your cornflakes but there's no way we're beating Brighton or Wolves. If we stay up, it's only because Everton and Forest get deducted loads of points imo.

I agree totally,our only chance of survival is points deductions of other teams.We are nowhere near good enough

[Jakubclaret]

20 more points and will finish on 32.

That may narrowly finish above Luton and would only have a chance of staying up if Forest or Everton get a further deduction.

Sorry for being pedantic but you are making it sound as if forest have already been deducted points which could happen but it isn't certain.

[Rick_Muller]

One game at a time...

[alwaysaclaret]

I still believe we have a chance (with 8 wins).
If you have no faith what is the point?

What makes you think we can win 8 in 17, when we've managed just 3 in 21. In all the years I've supported my team, I've never been as void of faith as I am this season, I'm resigned to relegation I'm afraid, even with further points deductions for Everton and forest, Everton are light years ahead of us, and forest will have enough too, consequently who else do we catch even if we do get above Luton, and Sheffield utd are even showing signs of fight, wouldn't be surprised by a defeat at Bramhall Lane. Frustratingly we're still in the same position as we were before the season started, still need a big unit at the back, another cm, and another up top to have a sniff of a chance, oh and if it's not muric, then another keeper that's a bit more physical than the one we've got.

[alwaysaclaret]

20 more points and will finish on 32.

That may narrowly finish above Luton and would only have a chance of staying up if Forest or Everton get a further deduction.

Agree, only chance we have. Anything less than this and we're doomed I'm afraid.

[Venkys4eva]

More chance of the titanic docking in newyork

[Healeywoodclaret]

And where would we be if the VAR decisions had gone in our favour - anything can happen yet

VAR decisions will never go our way. The premier league is corrupt.

[burnleymik]

Of course we can. A win or two and the belief will return. I certainly believe we are better than our current position.

[Ptangyangkipperbang]

It could be possible but a mighty ask there are winnable home games hopefully to come.But the big problem for me is almost certainly 3 defeats out of our next 4 games

[spt_claret]

Being as optimistic as possible, assuming we get the strengthening we need in Jan (increasingly unlikely) and everything clicks (also unlikely), my best prediction:
CITY 0
FULHAM 3
LIVERPOOL 0
ARSENAL 0
PALACE 3
BOURNEMOUTH 3
WEST HAM 1
BRENTFORD 3
CHELSEA 1
WOLVES 3
EVERTON 1
BRIGHTON 1
SHEFF UTD 3
MAN UTD 1
NEWCASTLE 1
SPURS 1
FOREST 3
28 points, we hit 40 and pull off the miracle. Really does put it in context though, we can only afford 3 or 4 more losses and will need at least a 6 game streak of points with a couple wins in there, at some point to have any hope.

Being more hand-on-heart about what I think we'll get:
CITY 0
FULHAM 1
LIVERPOOL 0
ARSENAL 0
PALACE 1
BOURNEMOUTH 3
WEST HAM 1
BRENTFORD 1
CHELSEA 0
WOLVES 1
EVERTON 0
BRIGHTON 1
SHEFF UTD 3
MAN UTD 0
NEWCASTLE 1
SPURS 0
FOREST 3

16 points, 28 total. Down. Could see Fulham, Palace or maybe Brentford being converted to wins, or Palace being a loss, or Brighton, Newcastle or West Ham being losses, and Bournemouth or Forest being draws. So really predicting between 22 more pts absolute max (ending on 34) or worst case, we somehow only get 9 more points (more likely 13 pts minimum).

[BabylonClaret]

Blimey are you French or Italian?....they wave white flags when the chips are down.
I'd have hated to be alongside you in the trenches...your white flag together with your white rabbit would betray
all.

No need for insults here. Bottom line is we are a team that is in the habit of losing. Our attack is the worst in the division (just let that sink in for a moment - worse than Sheff or Luton) and we aren't set up to grind out results.

That all adds up to a final return of around 20-25 points. At some point you have to stop baling water and accept the boat is going to sink