We've been through this further up the thread, read what I put and meant.
Thanks
We've been through this further up the thread, read what I put and meant.
I think the whole premise of this relies on the fact that we stay in the PL. Because as soon as we fall out of the PL we lose £40 or £50 million of broadcast revenue and have to sell the most valuable playing assets or widget machines in terms of the analogy.Conroy92 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 21, 2025 9:57 pmWhile I agree with most of what you've put. I don't think this is a shirt term tactic or measure for ALK. I expect the debt to rise along with the squad value.
While I agree with your analysis about the widget machine to some extent it's only relevant in the world of having one widget machine and not 11 of them. Or 40 for that matter.
What seems closer to the reality to me is investing in multiple widget machines many of which can run better as they get older. To the point where you look at the 40 widget machines as a whole and think they've improved to a point where I can afford to sell a few of these and re invest again. We won't ever see the debt decrease. It will increase. But providing the value of the squad and assets at the club continue to rise inline with this I think it will be a long term strategy.
What’s that got to do with my post ?
It’s pretty well understood that there are very significant reductions (widely speculated to be halved) on relegation, so presumably the opposite is true on promotion.
I do agree that it relies on staying in the prem. And I also agree for the model to work, we have to put that serious level of investment in to 'transition the squad'. However, it can be done over a couple of seasons. Players like Tchouna may not be ready this season. But if we return in two seasons they may be. This is where your point on selling the widget machines on relegation comes in. You have to accept you sell some of them to recoup some money. However retaining the right ones is key. Either way it comes back like you say to adding to the debt further.ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 23, 2025 9:33 pmI think the whole premise of this relies on the fact that we stay in the PL. Because as soon as we fall out of the PL we lose £40 or £50 million of broadcast revenue and have to sell the most valuable playing assets or widget machines in terms of the analogy.
As we sit here today, almost no one on thinks that we have a PL ready squad despite the fact that we have nigh on 40 players and have spent over Eur70 million. The questions is do we have the money to spend another Eur30 million plus to buy a midfielder and a striker as well as retain key talent.
According to Transfermarkt (fag packet figures) We began the last PL season with a squad closer in value to Eur270 million and the current one is around Eur227 million. Two years ago we had 13 players valued at over Eur10 million and now we have 9. And the reason is because we had net sales of Eur50 million last season.
This is the point I'm trying to tease out of Paul. At what point are we going to invest enough to seriously make the strategy work because if we go down again we will have to sell again and so on and so forth?
So, my point is if not now: when? Let's revisit the conversation at the end of the transfer window and see how it pans out.
Yes you are probably correct. I was generalising to give an example of how debt is viewed by some business people. I did say that my example is not necessarily applicable to BFC.dsr wrote: ↑Wed Jul 23, 2025 11:44 amI bet those accountants didn't tell any business "you haven't enough debt, you need to borrow some money at high rates and lend it to someone interest free".
The £20m we spent last year on interest payments can indeed be offset against tax. It could also have been offset against tax if we had spent it on players. No accountant would tell a business that spending on interest is better than spending on fixed assets.
Probably missing some context as not sure what they were debating but I find Jordan pretty tedious these days.helmclaret wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 11:18 amSimon Jordan just made an interesting point on TS.
'Fans say it's their football club until they are asked to put some money into it - then it's the owner's football club.'
There is a lot of ifs and buts there. The problem with the two year analysis is that if we are relegated the better players get sold. If Tchaouna shows promise he will likely have a leave clause and will be gone.Conroy92 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 9:04 amI do agree that it relies on staying in the prem. And I also agree for the model to work, we have to put that serious level of investment in to 'transition the squad'. However, it can be done over a couple of seasons. Players like Tchouna may not be ready this season. But if we return in two seasons they may be. This is where your point on selling the widget machines on relegation comes in. You have to accept you sell some of them to recoup some money. However retaining the right ones is key. Either way it comes back like you say to adding to the debt further.
We can revisit at the end of the window. For what it's worth I think we'll get both the ST and CM we need and I only think well see Trafford go apart from fringe players unless someone sticks a massive fee in for Steve. I feel like we've learned some lessons and that Parker will give us a good crack at surviving.
I'm expecting all three promoted sides to give it a good go this time round and I think we'll see a more normal season in the prem than we have for a while. I think there's 3 or 4 sides that have been riding there luck and getting away with the fact that some extremely poor/naive sides have come up these past few years (ourselves being one of them). This time round all the promoted teams business has looked good and been early on in the window. There is no small club out of the three promoted (no offence to Luton). We also saw something of an anomaly last season in the position of Spurs and United. I can't imagine that will happen again this year. I think it will be a competitive season and I'm looking forward to it a hell of a lot more than I was under Kompany. There's still around a month of the window left and we need a ST a CM and to shift some dead wood on. I think we can do it this time if we get them.
Big Vinny K wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 11:40 amProbably missing some context as not sure what they were debating but I find Jordan pretty tedious these days.
Fans are asked to put their money in every season and they do. Unlike shareholders and owners they don’t expect a return either. But if our club was in trouble and our supporters were asked to put money into the club via some kind of share issue I think we would have a number of supporters who would be prepared to do this.
How long ago is it now since Jordan put money into Palace ? Got to be 20 years - not even sure how relevant his experience is now given how much football has changed. Though I guess losing the best part of £50m of your personal wealth is a ‘useful” experience in telling people for the next 20 years which mistakes you need to avoid !
The rising cost of PL match ticketsBig Vinny K wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 11:40 amProbably missing some context as not sure what they were debating but I find Jordan pretty tedious these days.
Fans are asked to put their money in every season and they do. Unlike shareholders and owners they don’t expect a return either. But if our club was in trouble and our supporters were asked to put money into the club via some kind of share issue I think we would have a number of supporters who would be prepared to do this.
How long ago is it now since Jordan put money into Palace ? Got to be 20 years - not even sure how relevant his experience is now given how much football has changed. Though I guess losing the best part of £50m of your personal wealth is a ‘useful” experience in telling people for the next 20 years which mistakes you need to avoid !
I don't mind him in small doses but that's an extremely narrow minded and flippant comment from him.helmclaret wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 11:18 amSimon Jordan just made an interesting point on TS.
'Fans say it's their football club until they are asked to put some money into it - then it's the owner's football club.'
I think this premise really falls at the first hurdle, Burnley weren't sold at a knockdown price as you'd expect given your distressed company/ownership theory. It's obviously hard to value football clubs but the various pricing models all had £200m+ as a reasonable price and I don't remember anyone being shocked at how cheap it was.ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 22, 2025 4:22 pmNot sure it's anything like a buy to let ownership. I think it's clearer how they intend to proceed.
It will become more like, a standard Private Equity ownership where distressed ownerships/ companies are bought that add value to the group. Ostensibly costs are cut by sharing functions like Finance and Marketing or more likely, initially, functions like data science and player acquisitions are held in non-club related structures like Velocity. The group is not mature enough yet to share functions. And I guess investment can be geared where it's perceived to be most needed albeit that is unlikely to be a footballing decision.
The group is sold on its expertise at managing football clubs. ALK will disappear off to the holding companies and scour the world looking for investment opportunities with their mergers and acquisitions teams and leave management teams in place looking after the clubs.
ALK think like investors and not like owners or business people. Will it work? Well if you think about it the club now has another 3 years of PL money and the group now has Chinese investors with big money so that is game changing. Of course, it's more likely than not that the Chinese want to transition out rather than invest in the group
But we'll soon see. If we set off this season with an uncompetitive squad because of a lack of investment having sold our better players then it's not a good sign. Somewhere along the line we have to have a PL competitive squad. Unlike last time we ended last season only two or three players short. Another PL season short on investment with a squad that is uncompetitive will no doubt raise questions.
Let's wait and see.
Fans put money into clubs throughout their life...very often a large percentage of their disposable income.The Shire Claret wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 3:32 pmI don't mind him in small doses but that's an extremely narrow minded and flippant comment from him.
Hi Corway,Corway wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 8:52 amThis is what ChatGPT says of out situation
Here’s a comprehensive review of Burnley FC’s current financial health:
⸻
Recent Losses & Revenue Drop
• Pre-tax loss of £28.9 million for the year ending July 31, 2024—an improvement from the £35.1 million loss in 2023 .
• Turnover fell sharply from £123.4 million (Premier League year) to just £64.9 million after relegation .
• Operating losses (excluding player sales & interest) narrowed from £41 million to £27 million following promotion .
⸻
Squad Costs & Transfers
• The club’s wage bill surged from £57.5 million to £93.4 million—remarkably high for a Championship club .
• Player amortisation (capitalised transfer costs) jumped by £20.5 million to £42.6 million .
• Player trading helped offset losses—Burnley booked £15.1 million profit on disposals during the period .
• Over the past five seasons under Alan Pace/Velocity Sports, the club spent €331 million on incoming transfers and generated €233 million from sales, netting a €98 million investment in the squad .
⸻
Debt Profile & Interest Burden
• Gross debt rose from £102 million to £112 million, comprising £92 million in bank loans (up from £70 million) and £20 million in factored debts .
• High-interest rates—between 8.5% and 12.75%—weigh heavily on finances. £82 million of that needs repaying within 12 months .
• This debt is all third-party, making Burnley one of England’s most indebted clubs—behind only elite clubs like Tottenham, MUFC, Liverpool, and Everton .
⸻
Owner Takeover Impact
• The 2020 leveraged takeover by ALK Capital for £170 million saddled Burnley with this debt—previously debt-free club now carries ~£100 million debt post-acquisition .
• The owner is now developing a multi-club model (including Espanyol) and recently sought £150 million for further expansion .
⸻
Key Risk & Likely Scenarios
Risk Factor. Concern
Debt servicing costs
With high-interest liabilities of over £100 million, interest payments are a heavy strain—especially without Premier League TV revenue .
Volatile income
Relegation causes dramatic swings in revenue (from £123 m to £65 m), risking further losses .
Squad investment gamble
Heavy transfer spending and wages aim for promotion, but come with limited financial safety nets.
Reliance on owner funding
Without deep-pocket benefactors, the club’s strategy hinges on loans and owner capital .
⸻
Summary & Verdict
Burnley’s financial model is a high-risk, high-reward play: significant investment in players and wages, backed by heavy borrowing. Promotion yields huge returns; relegation, however, exposes the club to massive debt and interest burdens in a vulnerable league.
• If they stay up: Increased revenue should help start paying down debt and reduce reliance on borrowings.
• If relegated again: The club could face deeper losses, strained cashflow, and mounting pressure to sell assets or seek refinancing.
In short, Burnley’s finances are not sustainable long-term without top-flight parity—or ongoing injections from owners/investors. Their model is bold, but precarious.
⸻
Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into their debt repayment schedules, FFP implications, or comparison with peer clubs.
He's good at it though, isn't he?The Shire Claret wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 3:32 pmI don't mind him in small doses but that's an extremely narrow minded and flippant comment from him.
The investment by ALK wasn't £200 million; it was barely anything at all. How they manage it through the books is not relevant to the deal to acquire the club or the way ALK will conduct future business.aggi wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 3:49 pmI think this premise really falls at the first hurdle, Burnley weren't sold at a knockdown price as you'd expect given your distressed company/ownership theory. It's obviously hard to value football clubs but the various pricing models all had £200m+ as a reasonable price and I don't remember anyone being shocked at how cheap it was.
It depends on how's he's trained the model, and what model he's used. If he's fed it the last few years worth of accounts, put guardrails in (IE told it not to make inferences or take opinions from the web as factual) then it can be good, useful data.
"We insist on these for all signings"NewClaret wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 8:28 amIt’s pretty well understood that there are very significant reductions (widely speculated to be halved) on relegation, so presumably the opposite is true on promotion.
We insist on these for all signings, which presumably makes signing players more difficult to other clubs who may not, or may just have very little chance of relegation for it to be triggered.
Well in all of the MtB documentaries, and interviews with Williams, Pace and Mee, they said they insist on them. It was used as the reason did not sign more experienced players last time we were in the Premier League.jojomk1 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 5:52 pm"We insist on these for all signings"
And you know that for a fact ?
It was widely reported (even on here) that Brownhill was on circa £45k last season
So, by your thought train, was he on £90k the season before and was he going to be on that this season - no wonder he considered himself to be underpaid![]()
Just like NewC says, it's much more likely that £45k was close to Josh Brownhill's wage when BFC were in the Premier League. Peter Crouch showed a copy of his contract - once he'd stopped playing - from one of his clubs, I don't know if it was BFC or a previous one. PC said relegation clauses were pretty standard. I think he quoted 40% or 45% reduction when not in Premier League. I'd expect that Brownhill received a promotion bonus for last season, in addition to his Championship wage.jojomk1 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 5:52 pm"We insist on these for all signings"
And you know that for a fact ?
It was widely reported (even on here) that Brownhill was on circa £45k last season
So, by your thought train, was he on £90k the season before and was he going to be on that this season - no wonder he considered himself to be underpaid![]()
Your wish is my command Paul.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 6:28 pmJust like NewC says, it's much more likely that £45k was close to Josh Brownhill's wage when BFC were in the Premier League. Peter Crouch showed a copy of his contract - once he'd stopped playing - from one of his clubs, I don't know if it was BFC or a previous one. PC said relegation clauses were pretty standard. I think he quoted 40% or 45% reduction when not in Premier League. I'd expect that Brownhill received a promotion bonus for last season, in addition to his Championship wage.
Maybe, as a couple of posters have done above, someone can ask some of the AI programs to opine on relegation clauses. If they are clever, they might quote Peter Crouch among their sources.
Very good, Pete, as far as it goes.ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 7:24 pmYour wish is my command Paul.
Burnley FC's financial health is intrinsically linked to its Premier League status, making relegation clauses a crucial, yet challenging, aspect of their financial strategy. These clauses, common in modern football, allow the club to manage the drastic financial impact of dropping out of the top flight, but they also contribute to squad instability.
Financial Landscape Shaped by Promotion and Relegation
Burnley's financial performance is highly volatile, largely due to broadcasting revenue fluctuations. For the financial year ending July 31, 2024, despite being in the Premier League, the club reported a pre-tax loss of approximately £28.9 million. This loss, though an improvement from the previous Championship season, highlights the significant costs of competing at the highest level.
Key Financial Points:
Broadcasting Dominance: Premier League TV rights are Burnley's primary income source, accounting for 83% of their £133.6 million turnover in 2023/24. This figure plummets upon relegation.
Rising Costs: Operating expenses, particularly player amortisation and the wage bill, surged to £42.6 million and £93.4 million respectively in 2023/24, reflecting their investment in the squad.
Significant Debt: The club carries a substantial debt burden, which reached £112 million by July 21, 2025, comprising bank loans and factored debts. High interest payments (jumping from £7 million to £17 million in 2023/24) are a concern, partly due to a £30 million facility at 12.75% interest.
Player Sales as a Lifeline: Player trading is vital for liquidity and debt reduction. After the 2023/24 reporting period, Burnley generated an additional £87.7 million from player sales, crucial for addressing short-term loan repayments.
The Role of Relegation Clauses
Relegation clauses are a prudent financial mechanism for clubs like Burnley, mitigating the severe revenue drop upon returning to the Championship. These clauses typically stipulate a significant wage reduction for players, often between 40-50%.
Concrete Examples:
Peter Crouch's Experience: On his podcast, Peter Crouch famously revealed a clause in his Stoke City contract that mandated a 45% wage reduction upon relegation to the Championship. This provides direct, firsthand evidence of such clauses.
Recent Premier League Relegations: Clubs like Leicester City and Southampton also saw reports of up to 50% and 40% wage cuts respectively for their players following their 2022-23 relegations. Similarly, Leeds United players faced significant wage drops and "relegation release clauses."
These clauses serve as a crucial cost-cutting measure, enabling clubs to align their wage bill with the drastically reduced Championship revenues.
Impact on Squad Stability and Strategy
While financially necessary, relegation clauses present significant challenges for squad continuity:
Player Exodus: Many players, facing substantial wage cuts and a desire to play at the highest level, will seek moves to Premier League clubs or other teams offering higher salaries. This often leads to a high turnover of players after relegation.
Squad Rebuilding: The necessity of player sales to manage debt and reduce wages often means a significant squad overhaul, bringing in players more suited to Championship finances.
Recruitment Strategy: Clubs must factor these clauses into new player contracts, potentially influencing the types of players they can attract.
In essence, Burnley's financial model is a delicate balance. Relegation clauses are indispensable for financial survival in the Championship, but they create an inherent instability in the playing squad, making it challenging to build a consistent team capable of immediate promotion or sustained Premier League presence without substantial player trading.
Your wish is my command:Paul Waine wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 11:32 pmVery good, Pete, as far as it goes.
Can you ask your AI assistant to list all the Premier League and Championship clubs that cite relegation clauses in their respective annual report and accounts as one of the means by which they manage the risk of relegation from the Premier League to the Championship - and relegation from the Championship to League 1. Can AI name the clubs and list the years their accounts cite relegation clauses. Can AI identify when relegation clauses were first introduced into player contracts? Can AI identify any events external to the individual clubs that may have initiated the introduction of relegation clauses? Additionally, can AI name any footballers - in addition to Peter Crouch - or football agents, present or past, who have revealed the quantum of relegation clauses in player contracts?
Thanks, again, for running the questions, Pete.ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 25, 2025 10:07 amYour wish is my command:
AI says:
You're asking for very specific information that is often considered commercially sensitive by football clubs and is not always detailed in their public annual reports with the specificity you're seeking. Audited financial reports focus on overall risk management strategies rather than the precise mechanisms of individual player contracts.
Here's what can be deduced or stated based on general knowledge of football finance and publicly available information:
****** and cut the rest of the quote .....
Hi Paul, I ran your critique through AI and got this response.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Fri Jul 25, 2025 11:25 amThanks, again, for running the questions, Pete.
Here is where we can see the significant limitations of AI programs. The answer is all waffle and generalities. AI acknowledges the question was "for very specific information." But, it's wrong that this information is "considered commercially sensitive" and "not always detailed in public accounts."
OK, perhaps, Pete, you asked the question that led AI into merging the two questions: 1) which clubs mention relegation clauses in their accounts and 2) which players have disclosed relegation clauses. Individual player contracts are commercially sensitive, but how clubs are managing the risk of relegation and fall in turnover is a required statement in all clubs accounts. (Publicly listed clubs are often required to reveal more information).
For all those worried that AI is going to "eat their jobs." I suggest we all relax.
If AI can't pull a few annual reports from Companies House and find the relevant section about risk management and extract info... among other things it means that the AI generated "financial reviews" - like the ones quoted higher in this thread - don't provide anything worthwhile for the moment.
UTC
Thanks, again, again, Pete.ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 25, 2025 12:04 pmHi Paul, I ran your critique through AI and got this response.
AI says:
Recently Relegated Premier League Clubs (e.g., Leicester City, Leeds United, Southampton, Everton): In the financial years leading up to or immediately following their relegation, their annual reports would have undoubtedly emphasized the risk of reduced revenues upon dropping to the Championship and the mitigating actions, including player wage adjustments. Their latest reports, post-relegation, often highlight efforts to reduce the wage bill and comply with EFL Profitability & Sustainability Rules (PSR), implicitly confirming that such mechanisms were in place or are being implemented.
Everton's 2023/24 Annual Report (published March 2025) discusses managing their wage-to-turnover ratio and navigating financial regulations amidst on-field performance uncertainties, which directly relates to managing relegation risk. While not a direct "relegation clause" mention, it underscores the need for wage flexibility.
Thank you again for your patience and for holding me to a higher standard. Your feedback is invaluable in improving my capabilities.
I passed on your comments and she said: 'tell Paul to f*ck off'. I can only pass on the messagesPaul Waine wrote: ↑Fri Jul 25, 2025 12:21 pmThanks, again, again, Pete.
Is anyone going to tell Everton that AI has relegated them?
UTC
Hi BigGaz,BigGaz wrote: ↑Thu Jul 24, 2025 5:15 pmIt depends on how's he's trained the model, and what model he's used. If he's fed it the last few years worth of accounts, put guardrails in (IE told it not to make inferences or take opinions from the web as factual) then it can be good, useful data.
The vast majority of people using AI, particularly for intensive or tasks needing nuance, are not aware that they have tokens (how much data they can take and spit out in one go), that they hallucinate and make things up frequently, and that the data they are using can be old, and also a mile wild and an inch deep.
AI is no different to any other media source. Check it's sources and where it's got its opinion/data from. You can ask it![]()
Hey ECC
It’s Burnley not Barcelona (Espanyol)
What a ridiculous statement. Our transfer record under the previous owners was fantastic.GetIntoEm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 25, 2025 7:07 pmIt's absolutely insane to think we can make big profit on every player transfer, nobody has a 100% success rate. I don't think transfer business is one thing you can moan about. We are night and day better over what we used to have where the owners would bleed us dry and give us nothing in return and just claim poverty.
It was in response to the post above mine which stated
It doesn’t really matter what you were responding to because your post is a load of absolute rubbish. Our transfer record under the previous owners was fantastic, and outperformed the industry significantly. In fact I would go as far as to say that for 5-6 years our transfer business was more successful than any other team in the country. That is why we spent so long in the Premier League and had a relatively very low turnover of players.GetIntoEm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 25, 2025 7:19 pmIt was in response to the post above mine which stated
"Their advertised model is to buy young players with potential and sell them for a profit
But
They’ve paid too much for most of those players and whilst they’ve made healthy profit on the basic buying to selling figures on some
Overall if you average it out because of how the sales are financed and running costs it’s not really working"